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HCFCD Spending Drops Even As It Seeks Massive Tax Increase

10/15/24 – Even as Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) pleads with voters for a 63% tax increase, its spending continues to decrease – on both a quarterly and annual basis.

Come to the meeting Wednesday night at the Kingwood Community Center to learn more about HCFCD’s Proposition A on your ballot.

According to HCFCD data obtained via a FOIA request, HCFCD spending declined:

36% from the second to third quarter of this year ($67,983,033 to $43,179,077).
13% from 2023 to 2024 ($252,949,555 to $219,207,447 annualized. I estimated the annualized 2024 figure by adding the average of the first three quarters to their totals.)

See the first two graphs below.

*Unless we see a dramatic turnaround in the fourth quarter of this year, spending will decline for four straight years since its peak in 2020.*

Spending ramped up rapidly after Hurricane Harvey with the passage of the 2018 flood bond. But since 2020, it has declined precipitously and is now almost down to pre-bond levels. Why?

Possible Reasons for Decline

In fairness, the pandemic slowed many businesses, not just HCFCD. But the pandemic is behind us. And flood mitigation spending continues to fall.

The decline also coincides with a change in leadership at HCFCD and a change in direction from Commissioners Court.

The Democratic majority in Commissioners Court has burdened HCFCD processes with frequent changes to the “Equity Prioritization Framework.” The framework prioritizes projects that benefit low-to-moderate income (LMI) areas, not necessarily those with the most flood damage, the most severe flooding, the most frequent flooding or the highest flood risk.

HCFCD hasn’t yet even released flood-risk data requested by the Harris County Community Resilience Flood Task Force four years ago. If this were a poker game, I’d call that a “tell.”

Money Waiting to be Used

To its credit, HCFCD has secured enough matching partnership funding to more than double the $2.5 billion dollars approved by voters. But the District isn’t spending it.

It has taken two years to compile a project list for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and Texas General Land Office (GLO), which administers HUD funds in Texas.

Meanwhile, $825 million dollars are waiting in the wings.

HCFCD keeps trying to get the LMI percentage of that $825 million up to 70%, even though HUD requires only 50%. And the deadline for those 13 Disaster Recovery Projects worth $290 million is rapidly approaching.

Roughly 37% of Bond Spent in 60% of Time

More than six years after the passage of the flood bond, HCFCD has spent only about $1.9 billion out of the $5.1 billion available through bond and matching funds. So, the District has used only 37% of the money committed in 60% of the 10 years originally projected for the bond program.*

Meanwhile inflation has taken its toll on purchasing power, putting the future of many projects at risk. HCFCD has requested extensions on CDBG projects, but GLO is still evaluating them on a case-by-case basis.

The LMI Imperative

Currently, LMI considerations heavily influence HCFCD spending. Brays, Greens, White Oak, Halls, Hunting and Sims Bayous all have a majority of LMI residents. Brays is the first bayou to top $200 million in HCFCD spending since Harvey. Greens has topped $175 million. And White Oak is a whisker short of $150 million.

Meanwhile, the San Jacinto watershed ranks 13th out of 23 watersheds. Yet it had the highest flooding in the county during Harvey.

Why vote? Worst flooding in the county. — *San Jacinto at US59 circled in red. Note locations of areas on right that didn’t even flood.*

Current Priorities Shifting a Bit

When looking only at the third quarter of 2024, the picture has somewhat improved for the San Jacinto. During the last quarter, the San Jacinto watershed ranked 7th, but still fell behind White Oak, Halls, Greens and Brays watersheds, all of which have LMI-majority populations.

HCFCD announced the completion of Project Brays more than two years ago. And yet HCFCD still spends more money there than in the San Jacinto watershed, which is the county’s largest … with the county’s worst flooding.

But alas, Commissioner Rodney Ellis lives in the Brays Bayou Watershed. So, we in the San Jacinto will have to wait to see if any money is left to improve Taylor Gully, Woodridge Village or the Diversion Ditch.

And those poor souls who live near Spring Creek, which had the second highest flooding? Well, they’ll have to wait too.

Strange how most of the waiting is being done in Republican-dominated areas. For instance, Jackson and Luce Bayous (both east of Lake Houston) barely register as blips on the graph above.

Tough Tax Questions

So, should you vote for the new flood tax? Not until you learn more.

HCFCD is pushing the 63% tax increase as a maintenance tax, even though nothing in the ballot language restricts the tax to maintenance.

Wednesday night, HCFCD will hold a meeting at the Kingwood Community Center from 6 to 7:30 PM. Be there!

Ask whether you will see any benefit from the tax.

Why does HCFCD need a 63% increase when it has trouble spending the money it already has?
Is HCFCD capable of administering a larger budget in a timely way?
Is there any guarantee the money will be spent here?
If money will be spent here, when?
Why is the ballot language so vague and open ended?
Will commissioners divert the tax proceeds to other purposes?
Can you trust commissioners not to change the deal after the vote as they did with the 2022 bond?
If capital improvement money is largely going elsewhere, shouldn’t we assume that maintenance money will follow it?

I’m going to see what they say before I make any recommendations. Hope to see you there.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/15/24

2604 Days since Hurricane Harvey

* A word about data. The data provided by HCFCD includes maintenance spending, not just capital improvement expenditures from the bond. So $1.9 billion is an estimate. If it varies, it would vary downwards, making the disparity in the percentages greater.

It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over

10/14/24 – Looking at the National Hurricane Center’s afternoon update, Yogi Berra’s famous quote comes to mind – “It ain’t over till it’s over.” Of course, Yogi was speaking of baseball and I’m speaking of the 2024 hurricane season.

NHC posted a new 7-day outlook at 1:28 this afternoon showing two areas of concern. One in the middle of the Atlantic has a 50% chance of development. The one in the western Caribbean has a 20% chance.

The first is where Cat 5 Hurricane Kirk just formed. The latter is the same general area where Cat 5 Hurricanes Helene and Milton formed within the last three weeks.

Central Atlantic Formation Chance Now 60 Percent

Here’s what NHC has to say about the orange area in the Central Atlantic.

A well-defined area of low pressure located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is currently embedded in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of days.

However, this system will move generally westward toward warmer waters. There, environmental conditions could become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week.

A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week.
National Hurricane Center

Formation chance through 48 hours is only 10 percent. However, formation chance through 7 days is currently 60 percent. The formation chance has steadily increased for this area during the last few days.

Western Caribbean

Regarding that area in the Western Caribbean, NHC says this.

A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week.

Some development is possible thereafter if the system stays over water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central America.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America later this week.

Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. However, formation chance through 7 days is 20 percent at this hour.

This is near where Helene and Milton began.

Remember: six more weeks of hurricane season. And it ain’t over till it’s over. So keep checking NHC daily.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/14/24

2603 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Tree Lane Bridge Repairs Nearing Completion

10/12/24 – According to the minutes of latest Houston Public Works progress meeting Tree Lane Bridge repairs over Bens Branch were 57% complete as of 10/1/24 with 80% of the budget consumed. However, the contractor has completed a significant amount of additional work since then.

The million dollar project began in February. At the time, Public works predicted it would be complete by summer 2024. Unfortunately, that didn’t quite work out.

Status of Tree Lane Bridge Repairs

Completed as of mid-October:

Work under half of the bridge
Three of the four wing walls on either side of the Bens Branch, upstream and downstream of the bridge
Placement of rip rap next to the two eastern wing walls
Additional pilings/supports under both east and west sides of the bridge
A new storm-drain outfall on the southeast side

Not yet started:

Upstream work on the northwest wing wall
Soil grading (change order still pending)
Clean up
Reseeding

Still not moved:

Several pipes and cables

It’s unclear at this time whether the utilities are holding up any additional work, or whether they even have plans to move their property.

Downcutting of the stream bed through erosion exposed the pipe and cable, which used to be buried.

Pictures taken 10/12/24

In the progress meeting, the contractor estimated completion of Tree Lane Bridge repairs during the first week in November. The pictures below show the status of the work as of 10/12/24.

*A new, concrete bed has been poured to reduce the rate of downcutting by the stream and protect the piers. Note, however, that it only extends halfway under the bridge so far.*

*SE wing wall, new storm drain outfall and rip rap.*

*The four round pilings are new and will provide additional support for the bridge.* *Similar supports have been placed on the opposite side.* *Look closely in picture above.*

*Water pipe and cable still have not been moved.*

*Note new rip rap to the right of the outfall. Rip-rap (the concrete chunks) reduces the velocity of concentrated, flowing water and therefore erosion.*

*NW wing wall is complete, but new concrete bed under north side of bridge has not yet been started.*

*Neither has the* *NW wing wall been started.*

Pictures Taken Earlier

Chris Bloch, a Bear Branch Trail Association board member and local flood fighter, took the three Tree Lane Bridge repair pictures below.

Work in progress on new pilings on 10/3/24. Original bottom of stream bed was approximately three feet higher than current level, as you can see from the concrete still clinging to one of the old pilings.

Luckily, we have been having ideal construction weather since Beryl in early July. The mild drought has kept flow in the channel low, allowing work under the bridge to proceed safely.

Will These Repairs Hold?

Additional upstream development has increased the flow in Bens Branch in recent years. The bridge stood for more than 40 years without problems. However, this is the third set of repairs since 2020.

The current repairs appear more substantial than previous ones. But if the amount of water coming downstream continues to increase, even these repairs won’t last long. Water routinely comes up to the bridge deck.

*Photo by Chris Bloch of Tree Lane Bridge during TS Imelda.*

One cannot overstate the potential danger. Bear Branch Elementary is next to the bridge. More than 600 students attend the school and dozens of school buses routinely cross over the bridge every school day.

Power of Moving Water

For a history of the project and to see what damage to the bridge looked like before repairs started, see these previous posts:

8/11/24 Tree Lane Bridge Repairs Finally Starting Again, Hopefully for Last Time

6/28/24 Tree Lane Project Supposed to be Done Today, But Hasn’t Started

4/9/24 City Begins Tree Lane Bridge Repairs

2/21/24 CoH Public Works Kicks Off Tree Lane Bridge Rehab Project

11/28/23 Tree Lane Bridge over Bens Branch Still Standing

6/12/23 Flood Damage To Tree Lane Bridge Over Ben’s Branch Accelerates

1/29/23 Tree Lane Bridge over Ben’s Branch Damaged…Again

3/21/22 How Insufficiently Mitigated Upstream Development Imposes Taxation without Representation on Downstream Residents

3/31/20 City Completes Repairs on Tree Lane Bridge, But Concerns Remain

2/29/20 Tree Lane Bridge over Ben’s Branch: Before and After Repairs

12/2/19 Tree Lane Bridge vs. Power of Moving Water

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/12/2024

2601 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Northpark Expansion Shifting into Higher Gear

10/11/24 – The Northpark expansion project has definitely shifted into a higher gear. Today, contractors poured the fourth stretch of concrete along Northpark Drive in four weeks.

Today’s work focused on a new eastbound lane stretching from Russell Palmer Road to approximately 1,000 feet west.

Contractors began at 3 AM on the west and had worked their way east to Russell Palmer by 10 AM when I took the pictures below.

*Looking W. Note fresh concrete left of center running virtually to Russell Palmer in foreground.*

*Looking E. Crews worked like a well oiled machine, spreading then smoothing the concrete.*

*They still need to pave additional lanes north (right) of the one they paved today.*

The purpose of the expansion project is to accommodate growth and create an all-weather evacuation route for 78,000 Kingwood residents.

Crossover Closures

To pave the additional lanes, Harper Brothers Construction closed all of the Northpark crossovers between Russell Palmer Road and the entrance to Kings Mill. Crossovers east and west of that stretch will remain open. The crossovers within that stretch will remain closed for approximately two months.

Next Steps

The Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority also refreshed its 3-week lookahead schedule yesterday. Next up:

Paving prep for westbound lanes starting at Russell Palmer and going to Northpark Christian Church
Traffic switch from Russell Palmer to Kings Mill
More dirt work from Culver’s to Chick-Fil-A for a westbound access road
Demolition of existing westbound lanes between Kings Mill and railroad.
Full closure of Russell Palmer/Northpark intersection for three days (Friday, Sat., Sun.) beginning October 25th.
Paving prep for:
- Southbound lanes of Loop 494 on north side of Northpark
- Southbound lanes of Loop 494 on south side of Northpark
- Northbound lanes
Extend drainage under 494 and railroad tracks

To avoid construction delays, those who can take alternate routes for the foreseeable future probably should. Things will change on a daily basis.

For More Information

Consult the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority project pages. Or see these ReduceFlooding posts:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/11/24

2600 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Potential Funding Problem for Taylor Gully Mitigation Project

10/10/24 – Buried within a Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) eight-page status report submitted to Commissioners Court last Tuesday is a potential conflict that could torpedo Taylor Gully conveyance improvements.

Taylor Gully is the lone Kingwood project that HCFCD submitted to the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Texas General Land Office for Community Development Block Grant funding. The list of disaster relief and hazard mitigation projects totals $863 million.

HUD Funds via Texas GLO

The HUD/GLO money focuses on projects stemming from Hurricane Harvey that are designed to mitigate future disasters and flooding.

The money is in two buckets: disaster relief ($322 million) and mitigation ($541 million).

DR vs MIT, Above-the-Line vs Below-

Of the 39 projects listed in the status report, Northeast Harris County has three. But the three actually relate to only one project – Taylor Gully Drainage Improvements in Kingwood.

The main Taylor Gully project falls into the Disaster Mitigation (MIT) category.
Two related stormwater detention basins in Woodridge Village at the head of Taylor Gully fall into the disaster relief (DR) category.

A note on page six of the HCFCD status report explains the relationship between the three items. Basically, Flood Control needs the two detention basins to make the Taylor Gully improvements work within the available space.

Rough layout for new Woodridge basin. — *Green basin was started under an E&R contract then paused after HUD funding application. A second basin would need to be built from scratch somewhere within the area designated as G-503-06-00.* *Taylor Gully is blue line labeled G103-80-03.1.*

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The Taylor Gully project is above the funding line. That means there’s room for it in the budget. But…

Potential Conflict

The two detention basins, which are prerequisites, fall below the funding line. That means there is no budget for them unless another above-the-funding-line project falls out of contention or comes in much lower than expected. (Editorial comment: Good luck with that!)

See the note on page six reprinted below.

Taylor Gully Channel Conveyance Improvements (G103-80-03.1-E002), Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin, Compartment 1 (G503-06-00-E003), and Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin, Compartment 2 (G503-06-00-E004): Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin, Compartment 1 (G503-06-00-E003) and Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin, Compartment 2 (G503-06-00-E004) were originally below the funding line for CDBG-DR. The original engineering analysis indicated that only Woodbridge Basin Compartment 1 was needed for the Taylor Gully mitigation. As the analysis has progressed, it indicates that Compartment 2 (or a portion of it) may also be needed. Due to other projects potentially reducing in budget from the initial estimates, there may be funding available to include the Woodbridge basin in the Taylor Gully project. [Color added for emphasis.] (Bond ID: F-14; Precinct 3).

It’s like saying, “We’ll recommend the highway expansion. But we may not approve the concrete for it.”

Deadlines Looming

To make matters worse, the two detention basins are in the Disaster Relief category. That had a tight deadline – mid 2026. However, the GLO and HUD say that they are granting extensions on a case-by-case basis. HCFCD says they are asking for one. And these two particular projects seem to be in the pipeline under review.

The Taylor Gully conveyance improvements will cost an estimated $25.5 million. The two Woodridge detention basins together will cost an estimated $30.8 million.

The GLO says it is working closely with Harris County Flood Control to process applications and resolve issues as quickly as they arise.

However, unless HUD and the GLO grant a deadline extension, the two basins would need to be completed and all the billing submitted for payment by roughly mid-2026. That would be ambitious, even if they started today.

Worse, if the issue is “available funding,” they’ll need to finalize 14 other projects first to see how much money they have left over before the detention basins can even start.

Government Work is Never Easy

One thing I have learned since Harvey is that nothing associated with flood mitigation moves quickly. In that regard, Harris County Commissioners approved the first draft of the DR project list on 6/6/23.

In fairness, a large part of the HCFCD update deals with reasons for grant-submission and approval delays. They include:

Changes in procedures related to the Authorization to Use Grant Funds under the National Environmental Policy Act.
Confusion over the Supreme Court’s Sackett v. EPA Ruling having to do with the definition of the Waters of the U.S.
New U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service requirements to protect endangered species.
Recent changes to HUD’s Environmental Review Process.
HUD’s new Federal Flood Risk Management requirements to review wetland impacts for areas beyond one acre.
Severe weather (Derecho, May floods, Beryl)

Let’s hope they can resolve this one quickly. The fate of hundreds of homes and thousands of residents hangs in the balance.

Make sure you ask about this at the HCFCD tax meeting on October 16 before you vote.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/10/24

2599 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Milton To Make Landfall Near Tampa in Hours

10/9/24 at 5 PM – Tropical storm force winds from Hurricane Milton can already be felt in the Tampa Bay Area. The storm is moving toward Tampa at 17 MPH. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall near or just south of the Tampa Bay region this evening.

*Milton’s location at 4:46 PM CDT*. *Eye has become obscured by clouds.* *Milton covers the entire Florida Peninsula.*

According to the National Hurricane Center, it will then move across the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday.

120 MPH Cat 3 Storm at Present

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 MPH with higher gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton could still be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central Florida this evening. And it will remain a hurricane while it moves across central Florida through Thursday. Milton should weaken over the western Atlantic and become extratropical by Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles. Central pressure is 948 mb.

“Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula and to portions of the Florida east coast tonight and early Thursday,” warns NHC.

Add to that the risk of strong tornadoes. Warnings are already up.

9-13 Feet of Surge Predicted Just South of Tampa

Even though meteorologists have tightened their estimates, storm surge is still a significant threat. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location. There, surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

NHC predicts the eye will pass just south of Tampa and has scaled back surge predictions there too 6-9 feet, considerably lower than the 10-15 feet predicted yesterday.

However, slightly south, surge predictions still range from 9-13 feet down to Boca Grande, and 8-12 feet down to Bonita Beach.

NHC says, “There will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location, however, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm.”

“Water levels will rise rapidly as the eye approaches, and strong onshore winds on the backside of the hurricane will also cause a rapid rise in water as the center makes landfall.”

Up to 18 Inches of Rainfall

Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches will be common. Localized totals up to 18 inches are expected across the central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday.

Life-Threatening Flood Potential

This heavy rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.

About the only thing left to do at this point is pray for a speedy recovery. But based on Houston’s experience with Hurricane Harvey, I can promise you that recoveries from storms of this magnitude are anything but speedy.

That’s the main reason why I continue to post “Days since Harvey” with all of my posts. I want people to understand how long recovery and mitigation take.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/09/24 based on information from the NHC and Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner

2598 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Milton Could Be One of Most Destructive Hurricanes On Record

10/8/24 4 PM – As if the pictures of Helene’s aftermath weren’t enough, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that “Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”

Milton weakened to a Category 4 overnight during an eye wall replacement cycle and is now regaining strength as it expands into a larger storm. At 4 PM, it had a 10-mile-wide eye and was turning northeast, moving at 9 MPH.

NHC also reported that Milton regained Cat 5 strength and had sustained winds of 165 MPH.

Typically, Cat 5 storms destroy a high percentage of framed homes, with total roof failure and wall collapse. NHC warns that “fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will likely last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”

Ironically, much of the area that Milton will hit was already heavily damaged by Helene two weeks ago. Cleanup from Helene is not yet complete. The high winds could create a blizzard of debris and airborne projectiles.

Authorities are urging residents in evacuation zones to get out today as there may not be enough time if they wait until tomorrow.

Highly Populated Area in Crosshairs

The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) forecast track currently puts the Tampa Bay Area in the crosshairs with landfall tomorrow.

However, NHC cautions that, this far in advance, their forecasts typically contain 60-70 miles of error.

The outer winds could reach the Florida coast tomorrow. And the hurricane should make landfall early Thursday, crossing the Florida Peninsula, emerging into the Atlantic Ocean on Friday.

NHC says that preparations to protect life and property, and to be ready for long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight. By tomorrow, conditions will deteriorate and it may not be safe to work outside.

Wind Field, Storm Surge Will Affect Much of Florida

NHC also says that “Milton’s wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone.”

At 1 PM, hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 140 miles.

Storm surge in the Tampa area could reach 15 feet above dry ground. Surge warnings affect the entire western coast of Florida, the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas. Note below that NHC has also posted surge warnings for most of Florida’s eastern coast up through Georgia and South Carolina.

Heavy Rains and Flooding

NHC predicts 5 to 12 inches of rainfall, with localized totals up to 18 inches, across central to northern Florida through Thursday.

This rainfall will bring the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with
moderate to major river flooding, according to NHC.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 3:30 PM, 10/8/24

2597 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 13 since Helene

Milton Already a Category 5

10/7/24, 1 PM Update – Since posting the story below at 10 AM, Milton intensified explosively another 20 MPH and is now a category 5 hurricane with 175 MPH sustained winds and higher gusts. So, I have updated some of the statistics in the post.

Overnight, Hurricane Milton morphed from a Category 1 storm to near Category 5. This morning, Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Milton’s maximum sustained winds have already increased to 155 MPH…with higher gusts.

Category 5 Storm at 1 PM Update

155 MPH made Milton a high-end Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale – just 2 MPH below the Category 5 designation. But then it exploded.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that Milton is now a Category 5 hurricane. And it has nothing but light shear and very warm waters between it and the Florida coast.

According to NHC, in a Category 5 storm “Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”

If Milton were a tornado, its 175 MPH winds would make it an F3 on the Fujita scale, capable of blowing apart well constructed houses, overturning trains and uprooting forests. In contrast, Hurricane Helene was a Cat 4 storm with 140 MPH.

Current Conditions and Forecast

Milton should also become a much larger hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico once it completes an eyeball replacement cycle.

At this hour, hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 911 mb.

As Milton nears the Florida coast, it should weaken some as it encounters drier air and wind shear. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland.

Milton is moving toward the east-southeast near 9 mph MPH. An eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight. Then it should turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.

On that track, Milton will move near the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.

The northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will likely experience life-threatening storm surge with damaging waves today. The same threats should reach Florida late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.

Threats

STORM SURGE:

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL…8-12 ft
Tampa Bay…8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL…5-10 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…5-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor…5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location. There, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphics available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

For an easy way to find the elevation of your home or business, see https://reduceflooding.com/2020/08/01/easy-way-to-find-the-elevation-of-a-home-and-the-slopes-around-it/.

RAINFALL:

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night.

This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and Flash Flood Risk
graphics at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND:

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin early this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning
tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday.

SURF:

Swells generated by the system are expected to continue to affect much of the whole Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Meanwhile…Advancing Drought Back in Texas

After an abnormally wet spring and summer, we’ve had very little rain since Labor Day. As a result, the U.S. Drought Monitor now classifies the Houston area as Abnormally Dry.

Milton will miss Texas. But Texas sure could use some of its rain. When it comes to rainfall, sometimes Texas feels like “beast or famine.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/7/24 at 11:30 AM

2596 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Milton Now a Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane, NHC Says It May Go To Cat 5

10/6/24 at 5PM – Yesterday morning, Milton wasn’t even a tropical depression. This morning, Milton was a tropical storm packing winds of about 60 MPH. By noon, Milton became a hurricane. By the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 4 PM update, winds were at 85 MPH with higher gusts and “rapidly intensifying.”

NHC predicts Milton will become a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher with minimum sustained winds of 111 MPH) on Monday. That’s because it will track through warm, deep water in an area with low wind shear.

Current Conditions

At the 4PM update, hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 80 miles. Estimated central pressure was 983 mb.

Milton was tracking toward the east at 7 MPH on a track to strike the center of Florida’s west coast. It does not pose a threat to Texas. However, the Associated Press reports that some communities on Florida’s west coast are already ordering mandatory evacuations.

Forecast to Become Cat 4 or 5

According to NHC, some models are predicting Milton could become a Cat 4 (130 to 156 MPH) or Cat 5 (157 MPH or higher) in a day or two. NHC admits its estimates “still could be too low.”

Large and “Life Threatening”

NHC also predicts Milton will be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area – a scenario similar to Helene just days ago.

“There is increasing confidence,” they say, “that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of Florida’s west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials.”

Tropical storm force winds should arrive in Florida by Tuesday evening.

Key Messages

If you have friends, relatives, business or travel plans in Florida, understand that:

Milton will be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula midweek. It’s still too early to predict the exact track and intensity.
There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday. Storm-Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued tonight or early Monday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast.
Heavy rainfall will impact Florida through Monday well ahead of Milton. More heavy rainfall directly related to Milton will hit Florida Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding. It will also have the potential for moderate to MAJOR river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

Other Hazards

NHC also warns of:

STORM SURGE: Water will rise as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as the storm tracks east. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Monday afternoon.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two. They will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions.

Milton will make the third major hurricane in two weeks. It was only 12 days ago that Helene raked the west coast of Florida. Reportedly, many people in affected areas have not even returned home yet.

Sufficiency of Wind-Scale as Predictor of Damage

The New York Times ran an interesting article this morning titled “The Problem with the Hurricane Category Rating.” The thrust of it was that the rating system looks only at wind, but most of the damage is done by water. And NHC says 55% of all deaths are due to flooding during and after a hurricane.

The article quotes a number of government officials, professionals and academics working on ways to fill the gaps.

That will be the subject of a future post.

In the meantime, your best bet is to bookmark the NHC site and visit it daily during hurricane season. When a hurricane threatens the mainland, NHC updates information every few hours.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/24

2595 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 12 days since Helene

Tropical Storm Milton Forms in Gulf; Expected to Become Major Hurricane

10/5/24 – Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the Bay of Campeche. Within hours this morning, the National Hurricane Center upgraded an area of low pressure to a tropical depression and then again to a tropical storm.

At this time, NHC predicts it will move toward the west coast of Florida and strengthen to or near MAJOR hurricane strength.

Milton currently does not affect the upper Texas coast, nor is it expected to, except for some welcome cloudiness.

*Graphic from 10 AM CDT today BEFORE depression strengthened into TS Milton.* *NHC will update its graphics at 4 PM CDT.*

Here’s what the storm looked like from a satellite: slight rotation at the left and the beginning of banding.

Forecast

At 12:25 PM CDT, NHC said satellite data indicated that the depression had strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

The system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or so. After that, a trough moving
southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a
slightly faster forward speed.

On the current track, Milton will cross the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Models agree on the track, but not the forward speed, so timing could vary. NHC reminds residents not to focus on the exact track because the average 4-day track error is about 150 miles.

Milton is within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. With those conditions, NHC expects rapid strengthening over the next few days. The rate of strengthening should increase after an inner core forms in the next 12 to 24 hours. NHC forecasts rapid intensification after 36 hours.

The official forecast shows the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Models are in good consensus on this point. But some suggest Milton will grow even stronger.

Regardless, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast
of the Florida Peninsula next week.

Key Messages

If you have friends, relatives, or travel plans in the affected area, remember these key points.

Milton will quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week.
There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials. Check the NHC site regularly for updates.
Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton. Expect heavy rainfall more directly related to the system by later Tuesday through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Major Hurricane Count So Far this Season

In an average hurricane season, the Atlantic basin normally sees three major hurricanes. And so far, we’ve had three.

Beryl – 160 MPH
Helene – 140 MPH
Kirk – 120 MPH

But usually, we don’t get the third until the end of October – October 28th to be exact. Four at the beginning of October is slightly unusual. And we still have almost two months left in this season.

Maybe this will be an extreme season after all.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/5/24

2594 Days since Hurricane Harvey