Tropical Storm Raphael Heading North

11/4/2024 4 PM – The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 4 PM update indicates that tropical depression 18 has gained tropical storm strength and will be named Rafael. The report also indicates that Rafael, presently located in the south central Caribbean would likely move over:

• Jamaica late Monday night as a tropical storm
• The Cayman Islands by Tuesday as a hurricane
• Cuba on Wednesday as a hurricane
• The Gulf of Mexico, heading north as a hurricane.

45 MPH Winds at 4PM and Strengthening

As of 4PM today, maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. NHC predicts steady-to-rapid strengthening. The system should become a hurricane on Tuesday.

NHC predicts Rafael will drop 3-6 inches of rain with amounts up to 9 inches locally over The Caymans, Jamaica and Cuba. That much will cause flooding and mudslides, they say.

Storm surge in the Caribbean will be 6-9 feet above normal tide levels. Swells generated by the system should affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Models give the storm a 40 percent chance of a 30 kt speed increase in the next 24 hours and a near 50 percent chance of a 55 kt increase in 48 hours.

Track Over Caribbean Highly Uncertain At This Point

Models closely agree on the track of the storm while in the Caribbean but disagree where it will go once it enters the Gulf. There, model solutions diverge. NHC has low confidence in the Gulf of Mexico forecast track. The wide cone currently stretches from Houston to the Florida Panhandle.

The likely wind field will stretch even wider.

If the storm heads toward Houston, the leading edge of the winds could be felt as early as Friday morning.

Likely to Weaken in Gulf

Environmental factors of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm sea-surface temperatures support intensification. And since the system now has a well organized circulation, NHC has increasing confidence of steady strengthening until the system reaches Cuba or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

In 3 or 4 days, when the system reaches the central Gulf, a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier air, and slightly cooler waters should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening. 

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist predicts the system’s broad wind field will likely begin to impose along the upper Texas coast by late this week into the weekend. He also predicts that upper level wind shear over the US Gulf coast will likely greatly weaken any tropical system prior to reaching the US coast.

Regardless, check the NHC site often for recent updates and confidence about the track increases.

If Rafael is the last named storm of the season, it would put the total (18) in the range of NHC’s predictions.

Season Now Within Range of Earlier Predictions

Tropical events are rare in the Gulf this time of year but not unheard of. NHC’s climatology page shows many storms starting in the Caribbean during this 10-day period. A subset of those moves into the Gulf while others spin off into the Atlantic.

NHC predicted an above average number of named storms this year. Rafael, at number 18, puts us within the range they predicted.

Eighteen is also above the average number of named storms we receive in a season.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/4/24

2624 Days since Hurricane Harvey