10/6/24 at 5PM – Yesterday morning, Milton wasn’t even a tropical depression. This morning, Milton was a tropical storm packing winds of about 60 MPH. By noon, Milton became a hurricane. By the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 4 PM update, winds were at 85 MPH with higher gusts and “rapidly intensifying.”
NHC predicts Milton will become a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher with minimum sustained winds of 111 MPH) on Monday. That’s because it will track through warm, deep water in an area with low wind shear.
Current Conditions
At the 4PM update, hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 80 miles. Estimated central pressure was 983 mb.
Milton was tracking toward the east at 7 MPH on a track to strike the center of Florida’s west coast. It does not pose a threat to Texas. However, the Associated Press reports that some communities on Florida’s west coast are already ordering mandatory evacuations.
Forecast to Become Cat 4 or 5
According to NHC, some models are predicting Milton could become a Cat 4 (130 to 156 MPH) or Cat 5 (157 MPH or higher) in a day or two. NHC admits its estimates “still could be too low.”
Large and “Life Threatening”
NHC also predicts Milton will be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area – a scenario similar to Helene just days ago.
“There is increasing confidence,” they say, “that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of Florida’s west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials.”
Tropical storm force winds should arrive in Florida by Tuesday evening.
Key Messages
If you have friends, relatives, business or travel plans in Florida, understand that:
Milton will be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula midweek. It’s still too early to predict the exact track and intensity.
There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday. Storm-Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued tonight or early Monday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast.
Heavy rainfall will impact Florida through Monday well ahead of Milton. More heavy rainfall directly related to Milton will hit Florida Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding. It will also have the potential for moderate to MAJOR river flooding.
STORM SURGE: Water will rise as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as the storm tracks east. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Monday afternoon.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two. They will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions.
Milton will make the third major hurricane in two weeks. It was only 12 days ago that Helene raked the west coast of Florida. Reportedly, many people in affected areas have not even returned home yet.
Sufficiency of Wind-Scale as Predictor of Damage
The New York Times ran an interesting article this morning titled “The Problem with the Hurricane Category Rating.” The thrust of it was that the rating system looks only at wind, but most of the damage is done by water. And NHC says 55% of all deaths are due to flooding during and after a hurricane.
The article quotes a number of government officials, professionals and academics working on ways to fill the gaps.
That will be the subject of a future post.
In the meantime, your best bet is to bookmark the NHC site and visit it daily during hurricane season. When a hurricane threatens the mainland, NHC updates information every few hours.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/24
2595 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 12 days since Helene
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/212936_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2024-10-06 17:48:492024-10-06 17:48:50Milton Now a Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane, NHC Says It May Go To Cat 5
10/5/24 – Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the Bay of Campeche. Within hours this morning, the National Hurricane Center upgraded an area of low pressure to a tropical depression and then again to a tropical storm.
At this time, NHC predicts it will move toward the west coast of Florida and strengthen to or near MAJOR hurricane strength.
Milton currently does not affect the upper Texas coast, nor is it expected to, except for some welcome cloudiness.
Graphic from 10 AM CDT today BEFORE depression strengthened into TS Milton.NHC will update its graphics at 4 PM CDT.
Here’s what the storm looked like from a satellite: slight rotation at the left and the beginning of banding.
As of 1:21 Houston time
Forecast
At 12:25 PM CDT, NHC said satellite data indicated that the depression had strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or so. After that, a trough moving southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed.
On the current track, Milton will cross the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Models agree on the track, but not the forward speed, so timing could vary. NHC reminds residents not to focus on the exact track because the average 4-day track error is about 150 miles.
Milton is within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. With those conditions, NHC expects rapid strengthening over the next few days. The rate of strengthening should increase after an inner core forms in the next 12 to 24 hours. NHC forecasts rapid intensification after 36 hours.
The official forecast shows the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Models are in good consensus on this point. But some suggest Milton will grow even stronger.
Regardless, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week.
Key Messages
If you have friends, relatives, or travel plans in the affected area, remember these key points.
Milton will quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week.
There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials. Check the NHC site regularly for updates.
Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton. Expect heavy rainfall more directly related to the system by later Tuesday through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
Major Hurricane Count So Far this Season
In an average hurricane season, the Atlantic basin normally sees three major hurricanes. And so far, we’ve had three.
Beryl – 160 MPH
Helene – 140 MPH
Kirk – 120 MPH
But usually, we don’t get the third until the end of October – October 28th to be exact. Four at the beginning of October is slightly unusual. And we still have almost two months left in this season.
Maybe this will be an extreme season after all.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/5/24
2594 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/two_atl_7d0.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2024-10-05 13:57:592024-10-05 13:58:00Tropical Storm Milton Forms in Gulf; Expected to Become Major Hurricane
10/04/24 – At 3 AM this morning, contractors narrowed outbound traffic down to one lane to begin pouring more Northpark concrete west of the entrance to Kings Mill.
It wasn’t the first pour in the two-mile-long project designed to create an all-weather evacuation route from Kingwood. And it won’t be the last. But together with other improvements, one can finally start to see the finished project taking shape.
The pour continued until early afternoon. Elsewhere along Northpark, one could see other workers installing asphalt underlayment for future concrete pours and working on lateral drainage where it ties into culverts down the center of the road.
Next Steps
Contractors are also getting ready to bore under the UnionPacific Railroad Tracks, Loop 494 and Northpark itself. The bore(s) will connect via a series of junction boxes to “Ditch One” behind Public Storage and Dunkin’ Donuts.
From there, the ditch will carry excess stormwater to Ben’s Branch and the Kingwood Diversion Ditch.
Pictures Taken 10/4/24
I took the following pictures of more Northpark concrete being poured around 10 AM this morning.
Grayish areas in center show partially dried and freshly poured concrete from this morning.New concrete now extends west to QuickQuack Car Wash from Kings Mill entrance in both directions.Looking E toward Russell Palmer. Another concrete truck pulls up to unload as men spread and smooth previous loads.Looking W. Fresh asphalt extending west from Russell Palmer will become the base for the next rounds of concrete.
Plans also call for widening 494. It too will become three lanes in each direction. See below.
Looking W toward entry ponds and US59. Note the road bed prep next to the Shell Station and Loop 494.
More Northpark concrete should be poured next Friday – 10/11/24. Again, it will happen between approximately 3 AM and 1 PM and should involve the closure of at least one lane.
Also of note: on the last weekend of October, there will be a full closure of Northpark at the Russel Palmer intersection to place paving across the intersection. This will begin on Friday and completely close the intersection until Monday morning 5AM. Detours will be in place for Russel Palmer traffic.
Milton Now a Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane, NHC Says It May Go To Cat 5
10/6/24 at 5PM – Yesterday morning, Milton wasn’t even a tropical depression. This morning, Milton was a tropical storm packing winds of about 60 MPH. By noon, Milton became a hurricane. By the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 4 PM update, winds were at 85 MPH with higher gusts and “rapidly intensifying.”
NHC predicts Milton will become a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher with minimum sustained winds of 111 MPH) on Monday. That’s because it will track through warm, deep water in an area with low wind shear.
Current Conditions
At the 4PM update, hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 80 miles. Estimated central pressure was 983 mb.
Milton was tracking toward the east at 7 MPH on a track to strike the center of Florida’s west coast. It does not pose a threat to Texas. However, the Associated Press reports that some communities on Florida’s west coast are already ordering mandatory evacuations.
Forecast to Become Cat 4 or 5
According to NHC, some models are predicting Milton could become a Cat 4 (130 to 156 MPH) or Cat 5 (157 MPH or higher) in a day or two. NHC admits its estimates “still could be too low.”
Large and “Life Threatening”
NHC also predicts Milton will be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area – a scenario similar to Helene just days ago.
“There is increasing confidence,” they say, “that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of Florida’s west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials.”
Tropical storm force winds should arrive in Florida by Tuesday evening.
Key Messages
If you have friends, relatives, business or travel plans in Florida, understand that:
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
Other Hazards
NHC also warns of:
Milton will make the third major hurricane in two weeks. It was only 12 days ago that Helene raked the west coast of Florida. Reportedly, many people in affected areas have not even returned home yet.
Sufficiency of Wind-Scale as Predictor of Damage
The New York Times ran an interesting article this morning titled “The Problem with the Hurricane Category Rating.” The thrust of it was that the rating system looks only at wind, but most of the damage is done by water. And NHC says 55% of all deaths are due to flooding during and after a hurricane.
The article quotes a number of government officials, professionals and academics working on ways to fill the gaps.
That will be the subject of a future post.
In the meantime, your best bet is to bookmark the NHC site and visit it daily during hurricane season. When a hurricane threatens the mainland, NHC updates information every few hours.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/24
2595 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 12 days since Helene
Tropical Storm Milton Forms in Gulf; Expected to Become Major Hurricane
10/5/24 – Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the Bay of Campeche. Within hours this morning, the National Hurricane Center upgraded an area of low pressure to a tropical depression and then again to a tropical storm.
At this time, NHC predicts it will move toward the west coast of Florida and strengthen to or near MAJOR hurricane strength.
Milton currently does not affect the upper Texas coast, nor is it expected to, except for some welcome cloudiness.
Here’s what the storm looked like from a satellite: slight rotation at the left and the beginning of banding.
Forecast
At 12:25 PM CDT, NHC said satellite data indicated that the depression had strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or so. After that, a trough moving
southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a
slightly faster forward speed.
On the current track, Milton will cross the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Models agree on the track, but not the forward speed, so timing could vary. NHC reminds residents not to focus on the exact track because the average 4-day track error is about 150 miles.
Milton is within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. With those conditions, NHC expects rapid strengthening over the next few days. The rate of strengthening should increase after an inner core forms in the next 12 to 24 hours. NHC forecasts rapid intensification after 36 hours.
The official forecast shows the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Models are in good consensus on this point. But some suggest Milton will grow even stronger.
Regardless, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast
of the Florida Peninsula next week.
Key Messages
If you have friends, relatives, or travel plans in the affected area, remember these key points.
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week.
Major Hurricane Count So Far this Season
In an average hurricane season, the Atlantic basin normally sees three major hurricanes. And so far, we’ve had three.
But usually, we don’t get the third until the end of October – October 28th to be exact. Four at the beginning of October is slightly unusual. And we still have almost two months left in this season.
Maybe this will be an extreme season after all.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/5/24
2594 Days since Hurricane Harvey
More Northpark Concrete Poured Today; Expansion Update
10/04/24 – At 3 AM this morning, contractors narrowed outbound traffic down to one lane to begin pouring more Northpark concrete west of the entrance to Kings Mill.
It wasn’t the first pour in the two-mile-long project designed to create an all-weather evacuation route from Kingwood. And it won’t be the last. But together with other improvements, one can finally start to see the finished project taking shape.
The pour continued until early afternoon. Elsewhere along Northpark, one could see other workers installing asphalt underlayment for future concrete pours and working on lateral drainage where it ties into culverts down the center of the road.
Next Steps
Contractors are also getting ready to bore under the UnionPacific Railroad Tracks, Loop 494 and Northpark itself. The bore(s) will connect via a series of junction boxes to “Ditch One” behind Public Storage and Dunkin’ Donuts.
From there, the ditch will carry excess stormwater to Ben’s Branch and the Kingwood Diversion Ditch.
Pictures Taken 10/4/24
I took the following pictures of more Northpark concrete being poured around 10 AM this morning.
Plans also call for widening 494. It too will become three lanes in each direction. See below.
More Northpark concrete should be poured next Friday – 10/11/24. Again, it will happen between approximately 3 AM and 1 PM and should involve the closure of at least one lane.
Also of note: on the last weekend of October, there will be a full closure of Northpark at the Russel Palmer intersection to place paving across the intersection. This will begin on Friday and completely close the intersection until Monday morning 5AM. Detours will be in place for Russel Palmer traffic.
For More Information
Consult the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority project pages including a new 3-week lookahead schedule posted today.
For a history of the project and its goals, see these ReduceFlooding posts:
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/4/24
2593 Days since Hurricane Harvey