8/6/2026 – One of the strongest El Niños ever is suppressing tropical activity in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf. El Niños create wind shear that disrupts the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. As a result, forecasters have lowered their estimates which were already below normal to begin with.
NOAA Updates Seasonal Forecast
In an email this morning, Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, wrote, “Updates to the seasonal Atlantic basin hurricane outlooks this week continue to indicate a high chance of below to well below normal activity across the Atlantic basin as we move through the peak of the season (August-October).”
That’s welcome news. “The main driver of the highly negative conditions is the continued increasing El Niño event well underway in the waters of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. There, sea surface temperatures are currently running (1-3º C above normal values),” said Lindner.
El Niño Region 3.4 (the dark area off the western coast of South America) tends to correlate highly with weather impacts in North America, including shifts in the jet stream. Niño 3.4 is currently averaging a sea surface temperature anomaly of +2.3º C.
One of Worst El Niño Events since 1950
“That already approaches some of the maximum El Niño events since 1950,” added Lindner. “With the likely peak of this event around December or January…it is now fairly likely that one of the strongest El Niño events in modern times will occur.”
El Nino events, especially of this magnitude, tend to produce tremendous wind shear values across the deep tropics in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. They effectively tear apart any tropical system attempts at development.
“Wind shear values of 40-60 kts have been common across the Caribbean so far this hurricane season,” said Lindner. “They extend eastward into the tropical Atlantic and are some of the strongest on record in this part of the basin.”
In addition to the high wind shear values, Lindner also cited dry sinking air that continues to dominate much of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean. He noted slightly more favorable conditions north of the Bahamas and through the northern Gulf.
Sea surface temperatures are running near normal to slightly above normal in some parts of the Atlantic basin. High negative wind shear values and dry sinking air are resulting in lower than average instability and a general overall lack in thunderstorm activity.
“One of the Quietest Seasons since 1997”
Accordingly, the seasonal outlook numbers for the basin remain well below the average of 14 named storms. Two “tropical storms” have already occurred (Arthur and Bertha) both of which impacted the northern Gulf coast and suffered greatly under adverse conditions keeping their intensity low and organization poor.
The basin is on track to be one of the quietest seasons since 1997 (another powerful El Niño year).
Lindner says there will be small windows of favorable conditions, most likely in August and September. For instance, areas in the middle Atlantic north of the highly unfavorable deep tropics could produce a few storms if tropical waves can reach those areas.
Budding meteorologists may be interested in reading NOAA’s entire seasonal outlook updated today. It’s a deep dive into the science of tropical forecasting.
It Only Takes One
Remember! Just because the outlook numbers are lower than average, does NOT mean there will not be any additional tropical storms or hurricanes or potential threats this year. So remain prepared.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/6/2026 based on information from Jeff Lindner
3264 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ct5km_ssta_v3.1_global_20260805.png?fit=1787%2C1054&ssl=110541787adminadmin2026-08-06 15:20:072026-08-06 15:24:47Tropical Forecast Lowered for Remainder of 2026 Season
8/5/2026 – In 2020 – three years after Hurricane Harvey – the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) applied for $500,000 grant from the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) to study Joint Reservoir Operations between Lake Conroe and Lake Houston. They hoped they could reduce flooding through better coordination of releases from the two dams.
March 2026 Public Input Session in Humble
Earlier this year, SJRA held a public input session at the Humble Civic Center where it outlined the goals of the study and listened to dozens of downstream residents still harboring PTSD from flooding and angry about delays.
At the event, SJRA said it would present its conclusions this FALL in The Woodlands. Now, five months later, the schedule has slipped to Spring 2027. See the screen capture below from SJRA’s website.
Matt Barrett, PE, SJRA’s Water Resources and Flood Management Division Manager, offered this explanation for the delay in an email.
Barrett said, “We are budgeting more time for reviews due to the number of partners involved. A couple other items that impacted the schedule and may delay the report are the modeling for the pre-release analysis, as well as required coordination with the ongoing Lake Houston Gates Project. We also expect a fair amount of stakeholder engagement.”
At the July SJRA Board Meeting, General Manager Aubrey Spear said that the Joint Operations study could not be done before the gate design was completed. Spear said he would have more information at the October SJRA Board Meeting. Mr. Sprear’s comments about the study begin at about 14:30 into this video and last for about 3 minutes.
Mr. Spear addressing SJRA Board Members at their 7/23/26 meeting.
Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger said today that the part of the Gates project that the SJRA needs to finish its work should be ready in 4-6 weeks.
Before Mr. Spear concluded his remarks at the SJRA Board Meeting, he spent another minute addressing the status of SJRA’s long-delayed sand-trap study, which has been sitting on the shelf for more than four years.
No SJRA Study Results Implemented Yet
SJRA has conducted a number of studies since Hurricane Harvey. They include a:
Study for building regional detention basins on Birch and Walnut Creeks, (far upstream on Spring Creek).
Yet nine years after Harvey, to my knowledge…
No drainage recommendations from any of these studies have ever been constructed.
The 661-page Birch and Walnut Creek study took so long that recommendations could not be implemented. By the time it was finished, the land had been sold to developers. A large solar farm was already built on one of the parcels needed when the SJRA Board reviewed the results and decided to take no action.
I hope the same does not happen with the Joint Ops study. Downstream residents desperately need something actionable this time from the SJRA.
One expert familiar with the issues involved told me, “Frankly, there’s no reason this study could not have moved forward long ago. It’s about procedures and operations. If the design of the gates changes, just update the procedure manual.”
Plea for Downstream Involvement
At every SJRA Board meeting, one or more residents from Lake Conroe speak during the public comments to oppose any pre-release. Downstream residents rarely if ever appear. So, the “no pre-release” mantra goes unchallenged. The SJRA Board needs to hear opposing points of view if downstream residents ever hope to see recommendations from the Joint Ops study implemented.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/5/2026
3263 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/SJRA-Board-Meeting.png?fit=1646%2C914&ssl=19141646adminadmin2026-08-05 17:02:142026-08-06 08:54:08SJRA Announces More Delays on Joint Reservoir Operations Study
7/4/2026 – Yesterday, the Texas General Land Office (GLO) posted Amendment 22 to its Hurricane Harvey $5.6 billion State Action Plan for public comment. That began a 30-day public comment period is required under federal law. The GLO administers disaster aid for the US Department of Housing and Urban Development in Texas.
Cover of Amendment 22 to GLO’s Harvey Action Plan
Allocation and Language Updates
The proposed amendment updates funding allocations and administrative language to better align available resources with current program needs. It also supports the effective and strategic expenditure of federal disaster recovery funds. And it ensures continued implementation of Hurricane Harvey recovery programs.
Table 1 (pages 11-13) summarizes the financial impact of the changes.
State of Texas – Total + $3.1 Million
State of Texas – City of Houston Homeowner Assistance + $1.7 million
State of Texas – Affordable Rental – $2.4 million
State of Texas – Housing Project Delivery + $3.8 million
City of Houston – Total -$3.1 million
City of Houston – Single Family Development – $1.4 million
City of Houston – Economic Revitalization – $1.7 million
City of Houston – Multi-Family Rental +$12.7 thousand
City of Houston – Public Services –$12.7 thousand
Two financial changes to City programs offset each other.
Two more, totaling $3.1 million, will send money back to the State. Using that, plus a decrease of $2.4 million from the State’s own Affordable Rental program, the State will bump up the totals for its Houston Homeowner Assistance Program and Housing Project Delivery.
On pages 7-8, you can find an index to text changes in the 493-page Action Plan. But at the end of the day, most could have been handled in a casual conversation around the water cooler.
Usually they amount to less need than anticipated in one category, so they shift money where the need is greater than anticipated.
The totals all offset and balance each other, like debits and credits. But hats off to GLO for its transparency and thoroughness.
Submit all comments to cdr@recovery.texas.govby 5:00 p.m. on September 2, 2026. Per federal requirements, the GLO must respond to public comments before the amendment can be sent to HUD for final approval.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/4/2027
3262 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Amendment-22-Cover.jpg?fit=1100%2C771&ssl=17711100adminadmin2026-08-04 17:48:102026-08-04 17:48:11Public Comment Period Opens for Amendment 22 to GLO’s Harvey Action Plan
Tropical Forecast Lowered for Remainder of 2026 Season
8/6/2026 – One of the strongest El Niños ever is suppressing tropical activity in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf. El Niños create wind shear that disrupts the formation of tropical storms and hurricanes. As a result, forecasters have lowered their estimates which were already below normal to begin with.
NOAA Updates Seasonal Forecast
In an email this morning, Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, wrote, “Updates to the seasonal Atlantic basin hurricane outlooks this week continue to indicate a high chance of below to well below normal activity across the Atlantic basin as we move through the peak of the season (August-October).”
That’s welcome news. “The main driver of the highly negative conditions is the continued increasing El Niño event well underway in the waters of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. There, sea surface temperatures are currently running (1-3º C above normal values),” said Lindner.
El Niño Region 3.4 (the dark area off the western coast of South America) tends to correlate highly with weather impacts in North America, including shifts in the jet stream. Niño 3.4 is currently averaging a sea surface temperature anomaly of +2.3º C.
One of Worst El Niño Events since 1950
“That already approaches some of the maximum El Niño events since 1950,” added Lindner. “With the likely peak of this event around December or January…it is now fairly likely that one of the strongest El Niño events in modern times will occur.”
El Nino events, especially of this magnitude, tend to produce tremendous wind shear values across the deep tropics in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. They effectively tear apart any tropical system attempts at development.
“Wind shear values of 40-60 kts have been common across the Caribbean so far this hurricane season,” said Lindner. “They extend eastward into the tropical Atlantic and are some of the strongest on record in this part of the basin.”
In addition to the high wind shear values, Lindner also cited dry sinking air that continues to dominate much of the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean. He noted slightly more favorable conditions north of the Bahamas and through the northern Gulf.
Sea surface temperatures are running near normal to slightly above normal in some parts of the Atlantic basin. High negative wind shear values and dry sinking air are resulting in lower than average instability and a general overall lack in thunderstorm activity.
“One of the Quietest Seasons since 1997”
Accordingly, the seasonal outlook numbers for the basin remain well below the average of 14 named storms. Two “tropical storms” have already occurred (Arthur and Bertha) both of which impacted the northern Gulf coast and suffered greatly under adverse conditions keeping their intensity low and organization poor.
The basin is on track to be one of the quietest seasons since 1997 (another powerful El Niño year).
Lindner says there will be small windows of favorable conditions, most likely in August and September. For instance, areas in the middle Atlantic north of the highly unfavorable deep tropics could produce a few storms if tropical waves can reach those areas.
Budding meteorologists may be interested in reading NOAA’s entire seasonal outlook updated today. It’s a deep dive into the science of tropical forecasting.
It Only Takes One
Remember! Just because the outlook numbers are lower than average, does NOT mean there will not be any additional tropical storms or hurricanes or potential threats this year. So remain prepared.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/6/2026 based on information from Jeff Lindner
3264 Days since Hurricane Harvey
SJRA Announces More Delays on Joint Reservoir Operations Study
8/5/2026 – In 2020 – three years after Hurricane Harvey – the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) applied for $500,000 grant from the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) to study Joint Reservoir Operations between Lake Conroe and Lake Houston. They hoped they could reduce flooding through better coordination of releases from the two dams.
March 2026 Public Input Session in Humble
Earlier this year, SJRA held a public input session at the Humble Civic Center where it outlined the goals of the study and listened to dozens of downstream residents still harboring PTSD from flooding and angry about delays.
At the event, SJRA said it would present its conclusions this FALL in The Woodlands. Now, five months later, the schedule has slipped to Spring 2027. See the screen capture below from SJRA’s website.
Proffered Reasons for Delays
Matt Barrett, PE, SJRA’s Water Resources and Flood Management Division Manager, offered this explanation for the delay in an email.
Barrett said, “We are budgeting more time for reviews due to the number of partners involved. A couple other items that impacted the schedule and may delay the report are the modeling for the pre-release analysis, as well as required coordination with the ongoing Lake Houston Gates Project. We also expect a fair amount of stakeholder engagement.”
At the July SJRA Board Meeting, General Manager Aubrey Spear said that the Joint Operations study could not be done before the gate design was completed. Spear said he would have more information at the October SJRA Board Meeting. Mr. Sprear’s comments about the study begin at about 14:30 into this video and last for about 3 minutes.
Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger said today that the part of the Gates project that the SJRA needs to finish its work should be ready in 4-6 weeks.
Before Mr. Spear concluded his remarks at the SJRA Board Meeting, he spent another minute addressing the status of SJRA’s long-delayed sand-trap study, which has been sitting on the shelf for more than four years.
No SJRA Study Results Implemented Yet
SJRA has conducted a number of studies since Hurricane Harvey. They include a:
Yet nine years after Harvey, to my knowledge…
The 661-page Birch and Walnut Creek study took so long that recommendations could not be implemented. By the time it was finished, the land had been sold to developers. A large solar farm was already built on one of the parcels needed when the SJRA Board reviewed the results and decided to take no action.
I hope the same does not happen with the Joint Ops study. Downstream residents desperately need something actionable this time from the SJRA.
One expert familiar with the issues involved told me, “Frankly, there’s no reason this study could not have moved forward long ago. It’s about procedures and operations. If the design of the gates changes, just update the procedure manual.”
Plea for Downstream Involvement
At every SJRA Board meeting, one or more residents from Lake Conroe speak during the public comments to oppose any pre-release. Downstream residents rarely if ever appear. So, the “no pre-release” mantra goes unchallenged. The SJRA Board needs to hear opposing points of view if downstream residents ever hope to see recommendations from the Joint Ops study implemented.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/5/2026
3263 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
Public Comment Period Opens for Amendment 22 to GLO’s Harvey Action Plan
7/4/2026 – Yesterday, the Texas General Land Office (GLO) posted Amendment 22 to its Hurricane Harvey $5.6 billion State Action Plan for public comment. That began a 30-day public comment period is required under federal law. The GLO administers disaster aid for the US Department of Housing and Urban Development in Texas.
Allocation and Language Updates
The proposed amendment updates funding allocations and administrative language to better align available resources with current program needs. It also supports the effective and strategic expenditure of federal disaster recovery funds. And it ensures continued implementation of Hurricane Harvey recovery programs.
Table 1 (pages 11-13) summarizes the financial impact of the changes.
Two financial changes to City programs offset each other.
Two more, totaling $3.1 million, will send money back to the State. Using that, plus a decrease of $2.4 million from the State’s own Affordable Rental program, the State will bump up the totals for its Houston Homeowner Assistance Program and Housing Project Delivery.
On pages 7-8, you can find an index to text changes in the 493-page Action Plan. But at the end of the day, most could have been handled in a casual conversation around the water cooler.
Usually they amount to less need than anticipated in one category, so they shift money where the need is greater than anticipated.
The totals all offset and balance each other, like debits and credits. But hats off to GLO for its transparency and thoroughness.
Review and Comment
Review the amendment at https://www.glo.texas.gov/sites/default/files/documents/disaster-recovery/public-notice/5b-sap-amend22.pdf
Submit all comments to cdr@recovery.texas.gov by 5:00 p.m. on September 2, 2026. Per federal requirements, the GLO must respond to public comments before the amendment can be sent to HUD for final approval.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/4/2027
3262 Days since Hurricane Harvey