11/9/26 – The 2026 mid-term elections have the potential to hit the reset button on flood-mitigation priorities. Governor Abbott, GLO commissioner Dawn Buckingham, State Representative Charles Cunningham, Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, and Congressman Dan Crenshaw are all being replaced by newcomers.
Democrats now have a majority of the House in Austin, and both the House and Senate in Washington. We had a “regime change” in the mid-term election. And with change comes uncertainty.
New, incoming leaders may not share the priorities of their predecessors. Nor will they have the background and the understanding of local needs that their predecessors developed in the nine years since Hurricane Harvey. Therefore, all of us must speak up.
We must inform new leaders about local flood-mitigation needs, so we don’t squander any progress made after Hurricane Harvey.
Overview of Lake Houston Area Needs
The Lake Houston Area Task Force, started by the late Humble ISD leader Guy Sconzo after Harvey, identified three main needs to mitigate flooding in the Lake Houston Area:
Less In. Upstream retention to decrease the amount of inbound water
More Through. Dredging to eliminate blockages and increase conveyance to get more water through the area faster
Faster Out. Additional gates on the Lake Houston Dam to get more water out faster, especially before major storms to create more floodwater storage volume in our lakes.
Outgoing leaders advanced many efforts that supported those goals. They include:
I pray that new leaders continue to advance these efforts. We should never forget how unexpected floods can upend the lives of hundreds of thousands of families overnight. Disrupt education. And destroy infrastructure.
Flooding is a public safety issue. And public safety, in my opinion, should be non-partisan.
And that percentage is probably even higher in Harris County
New leaders should not abandon the work on this issue that their predecessors started. They should continue to push these projects and priorities across the finish line. And turn study recommendations into flood-mitigation improvements on the ground.
There may be no more important public safety issue in this area than flooding. And it affects as many Democrats as Republicans…if not more.
Posted By Bob Rehak on 11/9/2026
3359 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/capitole_1024.jpg?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=17681024adminadmin2026-11-09 14:45:092026-11-09 14:58:42Will New Political Leaders Prioritize Flood Mitigation?
11/7/26 – Computer models, if accurate, can aid in planning. But what happens if their assumptions are flawed.
On 11/5/26, some of the brightest engineers in the region trotted out a presentation that showed the impact of releasing water before floods from both Lake Conroe and Lake Houston. They used computer models to calculate how much the extra storage capacity in the lakes could reduce flooding under various conditions and assumptions.
The work was brilliant in many ways, except for several critical omissions They didn’t model:
Current conditions, i.e., they assumed new floodgates for the Lake Houston dam had already been built.
Impacts of pre-release on the area SJRA directly controls between the dams where most damage and deaths occurred.
Actual rainfall from Harvey and soil conditions before the storm. They only used half the actual rainfall where most damage and deaths occurred, and they assumed a drought before the storm. So, model inputs were vastly inaccurate.
Recommended Next Step
SJRA has three additional model runs that it can make under its current contract with the engineers. I suggest they need to examine what would happen to the West Fork watershed if no additional floodgates are installed on Lake Houston.
At the very least, that knowledge could help determine optimal operational procedures to help protect people who live downstream from the dam. Right now. Before additional gates. If additional gates ever get built. That project currently faces a funding shortfall approaching $200 million in a time of political upheaval and uncertainty. Why?
Illusion
Engineers and computer experts often become seduced by the illusion of precision that underlies computer modeling. But they and we should all realize that the illusion is just that.
Frequently, model results fail to predict reality. Case in point: Take the bar graph below. It compares actual temperature observations to predictions of climate warming trends produced by 36 different climate models between 1973 and 2022.
The U.S. Dept. of Energy produced the graph for a 2025 report called, “A Critical Review of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on U.S. Climate.” The actual “observed conditions” are shown by the tiny blue bar on the far right.
Computer models are useful for planning the future and predicting results, given certain assumptions. But if those assumptions are unreal, the results are worthless, potentially misleading, expensive and dangerous. In less elevated language, “Garbage in, garbage out.”
My point? The measure of a model should be its ability to predict the future accurately. Failing that, models are little more than a magic show.
What Next?
So, what should the SJRA do at this point? The engineers made a big point of saying that they wanted input from the audience on three additional scenarios to explore.
I suggest they explore the impact of pre-release on:
The one area they already control, the San Jacinto West Fork
Given: CURRENT conditions, i.e., NO additional floodgates; a flowage easement on Lake Conroe to 207 feet above mean sea level; and various release rates in storms ranging from 10 years to 500 years in magnitude.
Objective: Optimize gate operations to minimize upstream AND downstream flood damage.
My Gripe about SJRA
SJRA constantly complains about how little they control. It comes across as if they’re still fighting a PR battle to win post-Harvey lawsuits. In public meetings, they go out of their way to dramatize how much they don’t control. It makes them look powerless and defensive. Worse, it doesn’t mitigate flooding.
Poster from SJRA Pre-release Meeting in Conroe. SJRA controls only the top gray area. But that affects the bottom gray and yellow areas.
Harvey and other floods dramatized two critical gaps:
Need for Pre-Release Strategy Before More Gates. Despite computer models and gages galore, the person operating floodgates at Lake Conroe during a flood needs better knowledge about how their actions will impact lives and property.
BetterCoordination with Lake Houston Operators. That person also needs to coordinate with Lake Houston Dam operators, who may be/will likely be constrained by their own lack of pre-release capacity. They need to act as one team.
Let’s plug those gaps. It’s nice to use computer models to design a safer world in the future; we need that. But until funding becomes available, let’s all live in reality. And try to make the best of it.
Let’s use those three remaining scenarios to help us NOW…before floodgates that may never be built.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/7/2026
3358 says since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/36-Models-vs-Real-Observations.jpg?fit=1100%2C958&ssl=19581100adminadmin2026-11-07 19:06:582026-11-07 19:34:33Models vs. Reality: Critical Omissions in SJRA Planning
11/6/26 – Approximately three dozen people attended a San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) presentation last night at Conroe’s Lone Star Convention Center to review the results of a flood-mitigation study on “pre-release.”
SJRA Pre-release meeting in Conroe
Pre-release is the practice of lowering a lake in advance of a storm to create extra room for incoming water, thereby reducing flood risk.
Major Findings
The study found that pre-releasing water from Lake Conroe before major storms provided some measurable flood-risk reduction there. However, it also found no measurable reduction for Lake Houston.
The difficult-to-follow, 53-minute presentation reviewed 17 alternative model runs showing the impact of pre-release under various conditions and assumptions on both Lake Conroe and Lake Houston. See below.
17 Scenarios presented at SJRA Pre-Release Meeting in Conroe on 11/5/16
However, all model runs were predicated on the installation of new floodgates which would add 84,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) of release capacity to the Lake Houston Dam.
The modeling showed no benefit to pre-release in the Lake Houston Area … after the addition of new gates.
The purpose of the new gates is to reduce flood risk by enabling pre-releases much closer to storms, thereby eliminating uncertainty related to weather forecasts. The new gates will also help Lake Houston keep up with Lake Conroe releases during storms.
So, the findings are not too surprising, even though the initial shock of the negative findings may alarm people in the Lake Houston Area. Regardless, many questions remain.
Unexplained Contradictions
The presentation was very difficult to understand. Several unexplained contradictions jumped out at me. The presenter made claims that differed from the historical record. For instance, he said:
The distance from Lake Conroe to Lake Houston was 45 miles; I measure it at 30 in Google Earth Pro. This could affect the timing of how tributary floodwaters stack on top of each other.
We got 24.8 inches of rain from Hurricane Harvey. That’s true at the Lake Conroe Dam. But at Lake Houston, we got 47.4 – almost double.
Their models assumed Harvey happened during a drought; it didn’t. A drought would have increased infiltration of rainfall and reduced flooding.
They found that Lake Conroe’s discharge accounted for only 12-14% of the inflows into Lake Houston. Data previously released by SJRA showed that during Harvey, Lake Conroe discharges accounted for 33% of the floodwater coming down the West Fork between Humble and Kingwood where most of the damage and deaths occurred. The same SJRA data shows that the peak release from Lake Conroe accounted for approximately 20% of the floodwater going over the Lake Houston Spillway. So percentages previously cited by SJRA were 2-3 times higher than shown in the table above.
“No one can predict a rain event.” “It’s impossible to predict rain events.” Really? Tell that to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
The SJRA’s engineers may have had explanations for these contradictions. But they failed to provide them or acknowledge any conflict in the meeting.
Ominous Omissions
The study also failed to:
Model:
Actual conditions during Harvey.
Impacts to the West Fork between Humble and Kingwood, where most of the damage and deaths occurred during Harvey.
The 1994 flood, the previous “flood of record” in the region.
Dollar value of homes flooded or removed from floodplain.
Loss of tax revenue.
Impact on schools, hospitals, transportation, industry, etc.
Explain:
How they modeled the number of structures flooded/not flooded.
Terms like “annual water supply.” (However, SJRA did explain it today. SJRA and City of Houston may only divert or take up to a total of 100,000 acre-feet of water per year from Lake Conroe. Pre-releases count against that limit. However, water released during a storm does not.)
Provide:
Before/after maps showing impact of pre-releases vs. gates.
Assess:
The cost of pre-releases vs. more floodgates.
Study Predicated on Having More Floodgates in Place
Many people in the audience were confused by why the SJRA chose to model flood risk AFTER the addition of more floodgates to Lake Houston.
One person called the presentation “A whole bunch of nothing!”
Another, intimately familiar with the gate project, questioned whether additional funding for the gates would be available to make them a reality given the recent election. A $195 million shortfall currently exists between committed funding ($120 million) and estimated construction costs ($315 million).
Yet another person told me that the survey should have shown the impacts of pre-release with and without the gates. “It also should be flexible enough to be modified as dredging happens, the river moves, or to address future development conditions. To not address present conditions and only the situation that ‘may’ be in 5 years was a complete miss by the engineering team and SJRA.”
Now, they’re betting big on the addition of new gates to the Lake Houston Dam. But those are almost $200 million and five years away…IF we can find the money.
In the meantime, it’s unclear how this study affects current pre-release policy or decisions. SJRA did not discuss that.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/SJRA-Crowd.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2026-11-06 16:47:222026-11-06 16:47:22SJRA’s Pre-Release Study Shows No Lake-Houston-Area Benefit
Will New Political Leaders Prioritize Flood Mitigation?
11/9/26 – The 2026 mid-term elections have the potential to hit the reset button on flood-mitigation priorities. Governor Abbott, GLO commissioner Dawn Buckingham, State Representative Charles Cunningham, Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, and Congressman Dan Crenshaw are all being replaced by newcomers.
Democrats now have a majority of the House in Austin, and both the House and Senate in Washington. We had a “regime change” in the mid-term election. And with change comes uncertainty.
New, incoming leaders may not share the priorities of their predecessors. Nor will they have the background and the understanding of local needs that their predecessors developed in the nine years since Hurricane Harvey. Therefore, all of us must speak up.
Overview of Lake Houston Area Needs
The Lake Houston Area Task Force, started by the late Humble ISD leader Guy Sconzo after Harvey, identified three main needs to mitigate flooding in the Lake Houston Area:
Outgoing leaders advanced many efforts that supported those goals. They include:
Flood Mitigation Should Be Non-Partisan
I pray that new leaders continue to advance these efforts. We should never forget how unexpected floods can upend the lives of hundreds of thousands of families overnight. Disrupt education. And destroy infrastructure.
Flooding is a public safety issue. And public safety, in my opinion, should be non-partisan.
And that percentage is probably even higher in Harris County
New leaders should not abandon the work on this issue that their predecessors started. They should continue to push these projects and priorities across the finish line. And turn study recommendations into flood-mitigation improvements on the ground.
There may be no more important public safety issue in this area than flooding. And it affects as many Democrats as Republicans…if not more.
Posted By Bob Rehak on 11/9/2026
3359 Days since Hurricane Harvey
Models vs. Reality: Critical Omissions in SJRA Planning
11/7/26 – Computer models, if accurate, can aid in planning. But what happens if their assumptions are flawed.
On 11/5/26, some of the brightest engineers in the region trotted out a presentation that showed the impact of releasing water before floods from both Lake Conroe and Lake Houston. They used computer models to calculate how much the extra storage capacity in the lakes could reduce flooding under various conditions and assumptions.
The work was brilliant in many ways, except for several critical omissions They didn’t model:
Recommended Next Step
SJRA has three additional model runs that it can make under its current contract with the engineers. I suggest they need to examine what would happen to the West Fork watershed if no additional floodgates are installed on Lake Houston.
At the very least, that knowledge could help determine optimal operational procedures to help protect people who live downstream from the dam. Right now. Before additional gates. If additional gates ever get built. That project currently faces a funding shortfall approaching $200 million in a time of political upheaval and uncertainty. Why?
Illusion
Engineers and computer experts often become seduced by the illusion of precision that underlies computer modeling. But they and we should all realize that the illusion is just that.
Frequently, model results fail to predict reality. Case in point: Take the bar graph below. It compares actual temperature observations to predictions of climate warming trends produced by 36 different climate models between 1973 and 2022.
The U.S. Dept. of Energy produced the graph for a 2025 report called, “A Critical Review of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on U.S. Climate.” The actual “observed conditions” are shown by the tiny blue bar on the far right.
Computer models are useful for planning the future and predicting results, given certain assumptions. But if those assumptions are unreal, the results are worthless, potentially misleading, expensive and dangerous. In less elevated language, “Garbage in, garbage out.”
My point? The measure of a model should be its ability to predict the future accurately. Failing that, models are little more than a magic show.
What Next?
So, what should the SJRA do at this point? The engineers made a big point of saying that they wanted input from the audience on three additional scenarios to explore.
I suggest they explore the impact of pre-release on:
My Gripe about SJRA
SJRA constantly complains about how little they control. It comes across as if they’re still fighting a PR battle to win post-Harvey lawsuits. In public meetings, they go out of their way to dramatize how much they don’t control. It makes them look powerless and defensive. Worse, it doesn’t mitigate flooding.
Harvey and other floods dramatized two critical gaps:
Let’s plug those gaps. It’s nice to use computer models to design a safer world in the future; we need that. But until funding becomes available, let’s all live in reality. And try to make the best of it.
Let’s use those three remaining scenarios to help us NOW…before floodgates that may never be built.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/7/2026
3358 says since Hurricane Harvey
SJRA’s Pre-Release Study Shows No Lake-Houston-Area Benefit
11/6/26 – Approximately three dozen people attended a San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) presentation last night at Conroe’s Lone Star Convention Center to review the results of a flood-mitigation study on “pre-release.”
Pre-release is the practice of lowering a lake in advance of a storm to create extra room for incoming water, thereby reducing flood risk.
Major Findings
The study found that pre-releasing water from Lake Conroe before major storms provided some measurable flood-risk reduction there. However, it also found no measurable reduction for Lake Houston.
The difficult-to-follow, 53-minute presentation reviewed 17 alternative model runs showing the impact of pre-release under various conditions and assumptions on both Lake Conroe and Lake Houston. See below.
However, all model runs were predicated on the installation of new floodgates which would add 84,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) of release capacity to the Lake Houston Dam.
The purpose of the new gates is to reduce flood risk by enabling pre-releases much closer to storms, thereby eliminating uncertainty related to weather forecasts. The new gates will also help Lake Houston keep up with Lake Conroe releases during storms.
So, the findings are not too surprising, even though the initial shock of the negative findings may alarm people in the Lake Houston Area. Regardless, many questions remain.
Unexplained Contradictions
The presentation was very difficult to understand. Several unexplained contradictions jumped out at me. The presenter made claims that differed from the historical record. For instance, he said:
The SJRA’s engineers may have had explanations for these contradictions. But they failed to provide them or acknowledge any conflict in the meeting.
Ominous Omissions
The study also failed to:
Study Predicated on Having More Floodgates in Place
Many people in the audience were confused by why the SJRA chose to model flood risk AFTER the addition of more floodgates to Lake Houston.
One person called the presentation “A whole bunch of nothing!”
Another, intimately familiar with the gate project, questioned whether additional funding for the gates would be available to make them a reality given the recent election. A $195 million shortfall currently exists between committed funding ($120 million) and estimated construction costs ($315 million).
Yet another person told me that the survey should have shown the impacts of pre-release with and without the gates. “It also should be flexible enough to be modified as dredging happens, the river moves, or to address future development conditions. To not address present conditions and only the situation that ‘may’ be in 5 years was a complete miss by the engineering team and SJRA.”
The SJRA seems to have abandoned a working program and not replaced it. They went from “seasonal lake lowering” to “active storm management” (meaning “pre-release if needed”).
Now, they’re betting big on the addition of new gates to the Lake Houston Dam. But those are almost $200 million and five years away…IF we can find the money.
In the meantime, it’s unclear how this study affects current pre-release policy or decisions. SJRA did not discuss that.
To see their entire slide presentation, click here. The Texas Water Development Board, City of Houston, and City of Humble partnered with SJRA on the project.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/6/26
3356 Days since Hurricane Harvey