5/31/26 – Harris County Flood Control District’s (HCFCD) SAFER study is now entering Phase 2 of 5. SAFER stands for Solutions for Advancing Floodplain Evaluation and Resilience. It is a long-range planning effort to help Harris County and its communities become more resilient to future flood events.
HCFCD hopes to do that by developing large-scale flood-risk reduction strategies that are:
Eligible for federal funding (65% federal/35% local cost sharing)
Reflect local priorities (engineering, environmental, community)
In Phase 1, HCFCD scoped the study and screened preliminary alternatives.
Phase 2 will evaluate combinations of those alternatives, resulting in a tentative plan.
In the remaining phases, SAFER staff will:
Draft a feasibility report and environmental impact statement
Submit the final report and environmental impact statement to the Army Corps
Coordinate efforts to obtain Congressional authorization.
Study Area Includes 11 of 23 Watersheds
The SAFER study includes 11 of 23 watersheds that cover roughly half of Harris County.
Measures Being Considered for Inclusion in Comprehensive Plan
Staff is looking at alternatives that improve flood-handling capabilities of main-stem bayous and upstream tributaries.
They are integrating solutions across multiple watersheds and comparing traditional solutions, such as channel widening, to more novel solutions for Harris County, such as tunnels. The slide below shows types of measures they are considering.
Phase 2 analysis will answer the following questions.
The next two slides show the type of alternatives being considered in the various watersheds.
The staff hopes to finish evaluating alternatives by the third quarter of 2026. That will involve economic and hydrologic evaluations of each alternative. They then hope to brief the Army Corps on their tentative plan by the end of this year or beginning of next.
Phase 3 (drafting the feasibility report) should start in early 2027.
Observations
This study could someday result in flood-mitigation solutions that make a large portion of the county’s population safer. On the plus side, the SAFER study will result in a comprehensive evaluation of the most cost-effective solutions from a wide range of options.
But on the minus side, it covers less than half the watersheds in the county. The omitted watersheds, such as the San Jacinto, Spring Creek, Luce Bayou and Cedar Bayou are some of the fastest growing areas in the region. Omitting them now will make floodplain preservation and other conservation measures more difficult and expensive later.
HCFCD chose the 11 watersheds because of “existing federal interest, meaning the federal government has authorized work in these specific watersheds at some point.” Their reasoning? That makes those areas “better positioned to receive approval and funding from the Federal government.”
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/SAFER-Study-Overview_Page_09.jpg?fit=2000%2C1125&ssl=111252000adminadmin2026-05-31 13:30:372026-05-31 13:33:34HCFCD’s SAFER Study Now Evaluating Alternatives for Tentative Plan
5/30/26 – According to Harris County Flood Control District’s (HCFCD) latest spreadsheet posted online, 19 of 29 Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) projects will miss their deadlines. And those projects are valued at $649 million according to the General Land Office, which manages U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) grants in Texas.
Two Categories of Grants, Each with Different Deadlines
HUD’s CDBG grants fall into two categories: Mitigation (CDBG-MIT) and Disaster Relief (CDBG-DR). All DR projects have a deadline of 2/28/2027. And MIT projects have a deadline of 3/31/28.
Members of Harris County Commissioners Court have become increasingly concerned lately about the possibility of missing deadlines and losing HUD matching grants for a large portion of projects going into construction.
In response to those concerns, Commissioners Court led by Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey P.E. began demanding hard data instead of vague, but rosy assurances from Dr. Tina Petersen, head of HCFCD.
Petersen submitted one spreadsheet on 5/1/2026 showing project status and another on 5/18/2026 with slightly updated data. Each spreadsheet is massive with minuscule type. They are virtually unreadable on anything but a desktop computer with very large screen(s).
To simplify things for this post, I focused on two questions:
How many projects will make their deadlines?
What is the value of the projects that will and won’t make their deadlines?
Everyone has focused on DR projects because of their deadline now just 9 months away. However, MIT projects also are in danger.
The potential loss of a quarter billion dollars in DR funding is staggering. But the potential loss of another third of a billion dollars in MIT funding is devastating.
Another thing jumped out at me from this data. While almost half the DR projects could make their deadline, the value of those projects is less than one fourth of the total. HCFCD must be rushing to get smaller jobs into production at the expense of larger jobs.
Every Precinct Affected, LMI Areas the Most
These projects affect every precinct in the county. And they affect low-to-moderate income areas the most. Sixty-two percent (62%) of the beneficiaries of these projects qualify as LMI (Low-to-Moderate Income).
How Dire are Deadlines?
Does missing the deadline automatically disqualify a project from reimbursement? Not necessarily. GLO has said that deadline extensions depend on how close a job is to completion.
If it’s 95% done and it could be finished within a month after the deadline, that’s probably NOT a problem.
But if it’s only 5% done and requires another year, that IS a problem. The GLO simply doesn’t have that much time to give away.
In fairness, the MIT projects are a little more complicated to track than DR projects. Half of that money must be spent by 3/31/28. But the last table above suggests that only about a third of the MIT projects will be complete by then. And that assumes the projects stay on track.
Last night ABC13 ran a 3-minute segment with investigative reporter Nick Natario interviewing Dr. Petersen about her job security. She repeatedly dodged his questions, saying, “I’m here to focus on projects and project delivery.”
Petersen’s candor should make the next Commissioners Court meeting interesting. Last month, Judge Lina Hidalgo said bluntly to Petersen, “I just lost my confidence in you.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/30/26and updated on 5/31 to correct dates in two pie charts
3196 days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/CDBG-MIT-DEADLINES.png?fit=1918%2C1132&ssl=111321918adminadmin2026-05-30 16:25:342026-05-31 11:48:40HCFCD Estimates 19 CDBG Projects Worth $649 Million Will Miss Deadlines
5/28/27 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) is sponsoring a series of virtual information sessions about the recently released draft floodplain maps for Harris County.
If you’ve wondered what the updated draft maps show for your home or neighborhood, these sessions will help you understand where to look and how to interpret what you find.
New Draft Flood Map for Lake Houston Area
What Sessions Will Cover and When
The sessions will cover:
What floodplain maps are and why they’re being updated
What’s changing in the new draft maps that FEMA is now reviewing
HCFCD designed these sessions for the general public. You need no prior knowledge. Whether you own a home, rent, run a business, or simply want to learn more about flood risk, these sessions represent a quick, easy way to learn more.
If you are unable to attend, materials and resources will be made available after the meeting.
Approval Stages
The maps will go through several stages before they become the effective regulatory maps.
Draft – (Where we are now) Draft maps are shared with FEMA, local jurisdictions and technical partners to identify issues or mapping discrepancies. Draft maps are provided for awareness only and are not open for formal comments or appeals.
Preliminary (Public Review) – Proposed maps for public input Once FEMA releases the maps for public review, residents can submit comments and formal appeals. During this period, the maps are still not yet effective for regulatory or insurance use.
Final (Effective) – Official regulatory maps After the review and protest process, FEMA incorporates all approved changes. Then it issues the final, effective maps. These become the official versions used for insurance, permitting, and development.
The entire process may take several more years. The purpose of releasing draft maps is to help you better understand your flood risk.
Looking south toward downtown along US59 across Beltway 8.
That means a lot more impervious cover. Much more runoff. And faster, higher flood peaks. During Hurricane Harvey, of the 154,170 homes that flooded in Harris County alone, 105,340 or 68% were outside the 1% (100-yr) floodplain. So, you can easily see why the maps needed updating.
The time to learn about them is now. Hurricane season starts in days. But it’s still not too late to buy flood insurance.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/New-Draft-Flood-Map-of-Humble-KW.jpg?fit=1100%2C717&ssl=17171100adminadmin2026-05-28 19:27:362026-05-28 19:42:19How to Understand New Draft Floodplain Maps
HCFCD’s SAFER Study Now Evaluating Alternatives for Tentative Plan
5/31/26 – Harris County Flood Control District’s (HCFCD) SAFER study is now entering Phase 2 of 5. SAFER stands for Solutions for Advancing Floodplain Evaluation and Resilience. It is a long-range planning effort to help Harris County and its communities become more resilient to future flood events.
HCFCD hopes to do that by developing large-scale flood-risk reduction strategies that are:
In Phase 1, HCFCD scoped the study and screened preliminary alternatives.
Phase 2 will evaluate combinations of those alternatives, resulting in a tentative plan.
In the remaining phases, SAFER staff will:
Study Area Includes 11 of 23 Watersheds
The SAFER study includes 11 of 23 watersheds that cover roughly half of Harris County.
Measures Being Considered for Inclusion in Comprehensive Plan
Staff is looking at alternatives that improve flood-handling capabilities of main-stem bayous and upstream tributaries.
They are integrating solutions across multiple watersheds and comparing traditional solutions, such as channel widening, to more novel solutions for Harris County, such as tunnels. The slide below shows types of measures they are considering.
Phase 2 analysis will answer the following questions.
The next two slides show the type of alternatives being considered in the various watersheds.
The full 27-page presentation (4-meg download) shows how the staff is evaluating several combinations of various alternatives in representative watersheds.
The staff hopes to finish evaluating alternatives by the third quarter of 2026. That will involve economic and hydrologic evaluations of each alternative. They then hope to brief the Army Corps on their tentative plan by the end of this year or beginning of next.
Phase 3 (drafting the feasibility report) should start in early 2027.
Observations
This study could someday result in flood-mitigation solutions that make a large portion of the county’s population safer. On the plus side, the SAFER study will result in a comprehensive evaluation of the most cost-effective solutions from a wide range of options.
But on the minus side, it covers less than half the watersheds in the county. The omitted watersheds, such as the San Jacinto, Spring Creek, Luce Bayou and Cedar Bayou are some of the fastest growing areas in the region. Omitting them now will make floodplain preservation and other conservation measures more difficult and expensive later.
HCFCD chose the 11 watersheds because of “existing federal interest, meaning the federal government has authorized work in these specific watersheds at some point.” Their reasoning? That makes those areas “better positioned to receive approval and funding from the Federal government.”
I guess the Army Corps dredging in the San Jacinto didn’t count.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/31/26
3197 Days since Hurricane Harvey
HCFCD Estimates 19 CDBG Projects Worth $649 Million Will Miss Deadlines
5/30/26 – According to Harris County Flood Control District’s (HCFCD) latest spreadsheet posted online, 19 of 29 Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) projects will miss their deadlines. And those projects are valued at $649 million according to the General Land Office, which manages U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) grants in Texas.
Two Categories of Grants, Each with Different Deadlines
HUD’s CDBG grants fall into two categories: Mitigation (CDBG-MIT) and Disaster Relief (CDBG-DR). All DR projects have a deadline of 2/28/2027. And MIT projects have a deadline of 3/31/28.
Here is a series of one-page summaries of each of the DR projects.
Members of Harris County Commissioners Court have become increasingly concerned lately about the possibility of missing deadlines and losing HUD matching grants for a large portion of projects going into construction.
In response to those concerns, Commissioners Court led by Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey P.E. began demanding hard data instead of vague, but rosy assurances from Dr. Tina Petersen, head of HCFCD.
Petersen submitted one spreadsheet on 5/1/2026 showing project status and another on 5/18/2026 with slightly updated data. Each spreadsheet is massive with minuscule type. They are virtually unreadable on anything but a desktop computer with very large screen(s).
To simplify things for this post, I focused on two questions:
Findings
Here’s what I found. Of…
And of…
In tabular form, it looks like this:
Everyone has focused on DR projects because of their deadline now just 9 months away. However, MIT projects also are in danger.
The potential loss of a quarter billion dollars in DR funding is staggering. But the potential loss of another third of a billion dollars in MIT funding is devastating.
Another thing jumped out at me from this data. While almost half the DR projects could make their deadline, the value of those projects is less than one fourth of the total. HCFCD must be rushing to get smaller jobs into production at the expense of larger jobs.
Every Precinct Affected, LMI Areas the Most
These projects affect every precinct in the county. And they affect low-to-moderate income areas the most. Sixty-two percent (62%) of the beneficiaries of these projects qualify as LMI (Low-to-Moderate Income).
How Dire are Deadlines?
Does missing the deadline automatically disqualify a project from reimbursement? Not necessarily. GLO has said that deadline extensions depend on how close a job is to completion.
If it’s 95% done and it could be finished within a month after the deadline, that’s probably NOT a problem.
But if it’s only 5% done and requires another year, that IS a problem. The GLO simply doesn’t have that much time to give away.
In fairness, the MIT projects are a little more complicated to track than DR projects. Half of that money must be spent by 3/31/28. But the last table above suggests that only about a third of the MIT projects will be complete by then. And that assumes the projects stay on track.
Last night ABC13 ran a 3-minute segment with investigative reporter Nick Natario interviewing Dr. Petersen about her job security. She repeatedly dodged his questions, saying, “I’m here to focus on projects and project delivery.”
Petersen’s candor should make the next Commissioners Court meeting interesting. Last month, Judge Lina Hidalgo said bluntly to Petersen, “I just lost my confidence in you.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/30/26 and updated on 5/31 to correct dates in two pie charts
3196 days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
How to Understand New Draft Floodplain Maps
5/28/27 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) is sponsoring a series of virtual information sessions about the recently released draft floodplain maps for Harris County.
If you’ve wondered what the updated draft maps show for your home or neighborhood, these sessions will help you understand where to look and how to interpret what you find.
What Sessions Will Cover and When
The sessions will cover:
It’s important to note at this time that these are draft maps and do not yet have regulatory or insurance impacts.
Four more sessions remain:
May 29, 2026
12:00 PM
Click to Register
June 8, 2026
12:00 PM
Click to Register
June 23, 2026
4:30 PM
Click to Register
July 1, 2026
12:00 PM
Click to Register
For General Public
HCFCD designed these sessions for the general public. You need no prior knowledge. Whether you own a home, rent, run a business, or simply want to learn more about flood risk, these sessions represent a quick, easy way to learn more.
If you are unable to attend, materials and resources will be made available after the meeting.
Approval Stages
The maps will go through several stages before they become the effective regulatory maps.
Draft – (Where we are now)
Draft maps are shared with FEMA, local jurisdictions and technical partners to identify issues or mapping discrepancies. Draft maps are provided for awareness only and are not open for formal comments or appeals.
Preliminary (Public Review) – Proposed maps for public input
Once FEMA releases the maps for public review, residents can submit comments and formal appeals. During this period, the maps are still not yet effective for regulatory or insurance use.
Final (Effective) – Official regulatory maps
After the review and protest process, FEMA incorporates all approved changes. Then it issues the final, effective maps. These become the official versions used for insurance, permitting, and development.
The entire process may take several more years. The purpose of releasing draft maps is to help you better understand your flood risk.
Why Maps Needed Updating
The old maps developed after Tropical Storm Allison show significantly less risk. Since 2000, the Houston area’s population has grown 68%. The region is now approaching 8 million residents and is one of the fastest-growing major metros in America.
That means a lot more impervious cover. Much more runoff. And faster, higher flood peaks. During Hurricane Harvey, of the 154,170 homes that flooded in Harris County alone, 105,340 or 68% were outside the 1% (100-yr) floodplain. So, you can easily see why the maps needed updating.
The time to learn about them is now. Hurricane season starts in days. But it’s still not too late to buy flood insurance.
Learn more about this new map program at www.hcfcd.org/MAAPnext.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/28/26
3194 Days since Hurricane Harvey