TS Rafael Likely to Become Hurricane Tonight Before Weakening in Gulf
11/05/24 – Rafael morphed from Tropical Depression #18 to a tropical storm in the Caribbean yesterday. And it could become a hurricane by tonight as it moves toward the Gulf of Mexico.
However, there is a low likelihood Rafael will reach Texas because of an approaching cold front from the northwest. The front will create strong wind sheer.
Also, nearshore waters, cooled by recent storms, will be in the upper seventies/lower eighties – the threshold temperature required to sustain tropical cyclones. So, we can expect weakening as Rafael approaches the Gulf Coast.
Forecast Track Still Has High Uncertainty
On the forecast track, Rafael should move near western Jamaica early this afternoon, over the Cayman Islands this evening, and over western Cuba on Wednesday. Once in the Gulf of Mexico late tomorrow, the track becomes far less certain as the storm weakens.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “A cold front is expected to sweep off the Texas coast early on Saturday, blocking any potential path toward the Texas coast.” You can see it in the photo above.
The timing of the arrival of the front and the weakening of Rafael will determine the Raphael’s track. As you can see below, models show little agreement at the moment.
Winds Currently at 60 MPH
At 1 PM EST, Rafael had 60 MPH sustained winds and was moving northwest at almost 14 MPH.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts steady to rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours. Rafael should become a hurricane as it
passes near the Cayman Islands later today with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba.
Hurricane warnings are in effect for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.
Lindner predicts “Rafael will likely near Category 2 hurricane intensity on approach to Cuba.” Category 1 ranges from 74-95 MPH. Category 2 begins when winds reach 96 MPH.
If Rafael does get close to Houston, we should start to feel its winds late Friday or Saturday.
Rainfall and Surge
NHC predicts rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches. Isolated totals up to 10 inches across higher terrain could lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
The NHC also expects storm surge of 6-9 feet above normal high tides in the Caymans today. Swells generated by Rafael will affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Stay Aware
Any time a hurricane enters the Gulf, you should keep an eye out. Check the National Hurricane Center website daily until you’re sure the threat has passed.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/5/24
2625 Days since Hurricane Harvey
