Flood Threats Increasing with Rainfall Predictions

5/20/2026 – According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, heavy rainfall will continue this week. “Additional rainfall through the weekend will average 3-5 inches with isolated higher totals…much of this may end up falling on Saturday and Sunday,” he said. “That’s on top of 1-3 inches that fell overnight. “Concern remains high for short-term rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour that can lead to rapid-onset flash flooding.” As a result…

“Flash flood and river flood threats will be increasing with time.”

Jeff Lindner

National Weather Service expects total rainfall accumulations to reach 6-8 inches in the next week.

For more details, see below.

Active Weather Pattern Will Continue into Weekend

Earlier forecasts suggested a total of 3-5 inches in coming days. But that has increased. Most of Harris County received 2-3 inches in the last 24 hours alone. See below.

Gage totals from Harris County Flood Warning System from noon to noon, 5/19/26-5/20/26.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are likely, according to Lindner.

Latest rounds of storms moved off the coast this morning. Expect a mostly uneventful day with respect to any additional storms. However, this evening another strong disturbance will come out of west Texas and northern Mexico. It will likely produce another complex of thunderstorms. High resolution models suggest a line of storms will form over that part of Texas and move eastward tonight into Thursday morning.

Some models predict the complex of storms will hold together into southeast Texas early Thursday. But other suggest they will weaken before reaching here.

Generally, this activity looks progressive. It will likely bring another 1-2 inches of rainfall. Once it moves through, another break will be possible for much of Thursday. But that will depend on the morning complex of storms pushing through the region and stabilizing the air mass. If not, thunderstorms could develop with heating on Thursday. The NWS Weather Prediction Center shows a level 2 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall and flash flood threat for Thursday for the entire region.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday. But confidence in the forecast is low beyond 36 hours. So monitor forecasts late Thursday into Friday morning for approaching disturbances.

Heavy Rainfall Threat Increasing For Weekend

Models indicate more concentrated thunderstorms and heavy rainfall may occur this weekend as a trough over the southwest shift slowly towards west Texas. It is unclear exactly how things will play out into the weekend, but it generally looks wet and the heavy rainfall threat will remain. Colorado State University predicts a heavy rainfall threat for both Saturday and Sunday.

Additional rainfall through the weekend will average 3-5 inches with isolated higher totals. Much of this may end up falling on Saturday and Sunday. Concern remains for high short term rainfall rates of 2-4 inches per hour that can lead to rapid onset flash flooding.

We will need to watch the entire period for any stalling storms or cell training that could quickly result in flash flooding.

Runoff/Flooding 

With all the rounds of rainfall, grounds will saturate thoroughly. Run-off will increase into the weekend. A lot of water is going to fall over the next 5-7 days across the region. How quickly that happens will ultimately determine the threat for flooding of creeks, bayous, and rivers.

“Rivers and creeks will rise with rounds of storms and may not be able to recede much before the next round – especially this weekend,” says Lindner. The end result: a slow steady rise in water levels.

Additionally, heavy rainfall will also cause more rapid rises on the more urban creeks and bayous. While these channels can effectively move large amounts of run-off in a short period of time, they can become overwhelmed with intense short-term rainfall rates.

Closely monitor all watersheds into the weekend for rises and any more defined flooding concerns. A good source for that in real-time is the Harris County Flood Warning System. Just remember to click on the Inundation button in the left column. You can also sign up for alerts.

Severe Weather Threat Low

Overall, the severe weather threat is low, but not zero. Overnight storms produced wind gusts of 45-55mph (56mph near Surfside Beach) and these complexes of storms tend to produce gusty winds along their leading edge. The severe threat is likely secondary to the increasing flood threat but will need to be monitored.

Lake Lowering

The Coastal Water Authority started lowering Lake Houston yesterday morning to create more storage for floodwater in the lake and reduce flood threats. As of 11:30 today, the lake was down from its normal level by almost a foot.

The SJRA dashboard shows they are not releasing any water from Lake Conroe but that lake is already down about a half foot. Normal is 201 feet.

Keep your eye on the sky and your ear to the weather radio. And with hurricane season officially starting in 11 days, now may be a good time to check the batteries in all your emergency equipment.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 1PM on Wed., May 20, 2026

3186 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Woodridge-Taylor Gully Construction Starts Again

5/19/26 – Contractors working on the Woodridge Village-Taylor Gully Project finally appeared yesterday and started working today. Construction on the site had been paused since November, 2023.

That’s when Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) cancelled an Excavation and Removal Contract with Sprint Sand & Clay to apply for a Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) from the Texas General Land Office and US Department of Housing and Urban Development.

This particular CDBG project falls in the Mitigation Category. That means, HCFCD and the contractors have until March 31, 2028 to finish it – about a year and ten months.

History of Project

All this comes seven years after Perry Homes cleared approximately 270 acres on its Woodridge Village property, and sloped the land toward Taylor Gully … without building the required detention basins. Then the flooding problems started. Taylor Gully flooded up to 600 homes twice in 2019, once on May 7 and once in September during Tropical Storm Imelda.

Harris County and City of Houston bought the property from Perry Homes in 2020. That let Sprint Sand & Clay start excavating a giant detention basin on Woodridge. They removed 156,478 cubic yards of sediment. That brought the total detention on the site up to Atlas-14 requirements, But per HUD requirements, HCFCD had to stop Sprint while it applied for a grant, which Congressman Dan Crenshaw helped secure.

However, work stopped before the basin was finished and it was never connected to the rest of the drainage on the site. See below.

Woodridge village excavation at end of October 2023
Woodridge Village in November 2023 when E&R contract ended. Note storm sewer pipe scattered around excavation.

Sprint removed all that dirt for less than a thousand dollars. The picture above shows how the site looked the day Sprint left. They gave the current contractors a giant head start.

Site Clean Up Started Today

Today, after a hiatus of almost three years, a new contractor started by cleaning up the site. I photographed them breaking up the old storm sewer pipe unearthed by Sprint.

Woodridge Village on 5/19/2026. Note contractors breaking up storm sewers that Perry had installed near detention basin excavation.

I counted three pieces of construction equipment onsite today: a small bulldozer, an excavator that was breaking up the pipe. And a forklift that ferried pipe to the excavator.

Restart of construction on 5/19/2026

I didn’t see any other equipment on Woodridge or along Taylor Gully.

Looking upstream along Taylor Gully from West Lake Houston Parkway toward Rustic Elms and Woodridge.
Looking downstream toward the end of Taylor Gully.

What Project Includes

On 10/6/25, the Texas General Land Office (GLO) approved approximately $42 million to construct Taylor Gully Channel Conveyance Improvements and a Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin.

On 3/26/26, the county purchasing agent approved a $29,387,654 bid from Bryce Construction & Design, LLC to finish constructing the Woodridge and Taylor Gully flood mitigation projects in Kingwood

The Woodridge portion of the project (above the county line) includes 421.6 acre feet of additional stormwater detention capacity (See Compartment 1 above).

Other planned improvements along Taylor Gully include:

  • 13,118 feet of channel conveyance improvements
  • Placing a concrete channel along the base of it
  • Replacing the concrete culverts at Rustling Elms with an open-span bridge.

Altogether the plan should reduce the water surface elevation by up to 5 feet and help 24,000 thousand people who live near or commute through the area.

For more information about the project, see this PowerPoint by HCFCD.

It’s great to see this project moving again.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/19/2026

3185 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Heavy Rains Could Bring Flash and Riverine Flooding This Week

5/17/26 – According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, a wet and stormy period mid to late week could bring heavy rainfall, severe thunderstorms, flash flooding, and riverine flooding. The wet and stormy pattern will likely last through the Memorial Day weekend.

Weather Pattern

A slow-moving, upper-level trough will blanket the southwest through much of this week into next weekend while both surface Gulf moisture and high-level Pacific moisture stream into the area.

Additionally, a slow-moving frontal boundary will sag into the area mid to late week. Lindner says, “This is a classic mid to late May stormy pattern for Texas.”

The overall pattern looks stormy as early as late Tuesday. Incoming upper-level disturbances will be hard to time. So, while rain chances will remain high into next weekend, there will be periods of stormy weather followed by breaks.

Complexes of thunderstorms from the west and northwest will move into the area from time to time with the potential for heavy rainfall and severe weather until late week. When the slow-moving/stalled frontal boundary is nearby or overhead, it will help promote more sustained thunderstorm formation and potential cell training.

Rainfall Predictions

Nearly all of the major global weather models show heavy to excessive rainfall potential. However, it will be difficult to predict precisely where storms will train and how long breaks will be between rounds.

These are all details that will be worked out in the next several days as forecast confidence increases.

Expect widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches from Wednesday through Sunday with isolated totals much higher in areas of cell training of slow moving storms. These totals may increase some over the next few days.

Initially, rainfall will soak into the ground. But repeated rounds of rain and training storms could quickly result in higher runoff rates and flash flooding.

Additionally, the large footprint of the forecasted rainfall will yield rises on area rivers systems. And it is possible that some rivers could approach or exceed flood stage by next weekend.

At this time, Pivotal Weather predicts 4.3 inches for  Harris County, 5.1 for Montgomery County, and 6.1 for Walker County. The headwaters for Lake Conroe lie in Walker County and heavy rains there in the past have led to the SJRA opening its flood gates.

For instance, in May 2024, rainfall north of Harris County exceeded 10.0-15.0 inches in many locations. And it exceeded 15.0-20.0 inches on the headwaters of the East Fork and north of Lake Conroe on the West Fork.

Severe Threat

A low daily threat of severe weather (wind and hail) from late Tuesday onward exists. But this threat is conditional on several factors that are hard to determine at this time. Keep your eye on the sky and weather forecasts in coming days. The wet pattern may even linger into next week.

From NWS Storm Prediction Center for 5/19 and 5/20/26.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/17/2026

3183 Days since Hurricane Harvey

HCFCD Director Tina Petersen Keeps Her Job … For Now

5/15/2026 – At their 5/14/2026 meeting, Harris County Commissioners discussed the job performance of the Flood Control District Executive Director, Tina Petersen, Ph.D. After coming out of executive session, Commissioners announced that they were taking “no action” re: Dr. Petersen.

Petersen has come under increasing pressure to produce results on $322 million worth of projects funded by HUD Community Development Block Grants for Disaster Relief (CDBG-DR). They have a looming February 28, 2027 deadline. And Petersen’s own data shows many of the projects will miss that deadline, thus jeopardizing federal funding.

Dr. Petersen under pressure as she addressed commissioners

Hidalgo Putting Petersen’s Performance Back on Agenda

Despite taking “no action” on Petersen this week, in a lunch-time press conference yesterday, County Judge Lina Hidalgo, said she was putting Petersen’s performance back on the agenda for the June Commissioner’s Court meeting.

Here is a transcript of the Petersen portion of Hidalgo’s press conference.

Addressing schedule slippage on CDBG-DR projects with tight deadlines, Hidalgo said, “The best I can do is place my trust in somebody else that might bring a different kind of energy, a sense of urgency and a new relationship with our partners at other levels of government.”

Hidalgo referred to Petersen’s “unforced errors” and added, “Every day that passes is a day in which perhaps we’re not working as quickly as we could be working.”

When asked about the probability of meeting the General Land Office deadline of February 28, 2027, Hidalgo replied,

“Given where we are and given the reports we have so far, I don’t see how they [the DR projects] will be done on time.”

Lina Hidalgo

Referring to other leaders at the federal and state levels who will have to make a decision about granting an extension, Hidalgo said, “If they’re anything like me, they will want to see a change [in leadership] as well. So that’s where I’m coming from.”

“I don’t think she’s the right person to continue to see this through. I don’t think that gives us the best shot at inspiring the confidence that the other levels of government will need to bet on Harris County,” Hidalgo added.

Ramsey Remains “Extremely Concerned”

Later, back in the meeting, Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey announced that he “remains concerned” about whether Petersen is achieving results and being transparent.

“There have been some delays internally in terms of when we get projects out, when we get projects bid. That’s very clear and we can go through a lot of detail related to that,” said Ramsey. “I think the GLO’s concerned that we’re not doing our job. So that concerns me. I get concerned when they tell me that they’re having trouble getting data.”

Ramsey expressed concerns about how transparent HCFCD was being regarding the status of projects. In referring to a detailed report that commissioners demanded from Petersen in the previous meeting, he said to her, “I shouldn’t have had to come to Commissioner’s Court to get support from this court to ask you to provide information to the GLO.” Then he added, “Every bit of data that we requested … was specifically needed by the GLO and they were not getting it.” 

Speaking to Petersen, he said, “I’m not going to take for granted what you’re telling me. It’ll be verified by Administrator Carter [the country administrator] in great detail in the coming days.”

Ramsey concluded, “Clearly, this is urgent. I’m glad you were able to do a report that we asked for, but I remain extremely concerned.”

Petersen’s Presentation Focused Largely on Need for Deadline Extension

At the end of the meeting, Petersen appeared before commissioners, ostensibly to update them on the status of the CDBG projects. She did produce a series of one-page information sheets that show a timeline for each CDBG-DR project.

However, she did not go into details on those. Nor did she explain any “unforced errors” as Hidalgo called them.

Instead, she focused largely on how frequently she had requested deadline extensions. In her half hour at the podium, Petersen mentioned a need for deadline extensions or more time approximately 30 times.

I felt she was claiming that there was never enough time to do these jobs. What do you feel? Here are:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/15/26

3181 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Floodplains and Affordability for First-Time Homebuyers

5/14/26 – Homes in floodplains typically sell at discounts compared to safer homes on higher ground. Therefore, they tend to attract a higher proportion of first-time home buyers. Why? For the vast majority of first-time buyers, affordability drives buying decisions more than other considerations, especially since flood risk is hard to understand.

Let’s look at some recent studies and start with the most affordable markets for first-time buyers.

Zillow Rankings of Market Affordability

In February 2026, a Zillow study identified large U.S. metro areas where buying a home is an affordable alternative to renting.

The study ranked the country’s 50 largest metropolitan areas based on their proportions of:

  • Income spent on rent (the rent burden: less spent means greater ability to save for down payment)
  • Affordable listings for median-income households (more supply drives down prices)
  • Affordable listings per 100 rental households (more choices mean greater bargaining power)
  • Share of population between 29 and 43 (prime ages for first-time buyers).

Based on those criteria…

Houston ranked fifth in the country.

Zillow study

In Houston, first-time homebuyers spend only 23% of their income on rent. And 40% of the City’s housing stock is within the price range of median-income households. So, Houston is one of the most affordable markets for first-time homebuyers.

Flooding Connection?

But are first-time homebuyers really more likely to buy homes in floodplains?” Research is illuminating. Short answer – “Yes. But not always.” It depends on where you look.

Inland vs. Coastal Floodplains

Less wealthy first-time buyers are often disproportionately represented in inland flood-prone areas. Why? Land is cheaper there and affordability drives decision making.

However, the pattern differs in coastal flood zones. Flooded coastal homes still command premiums because of their views, proximity to beaches, water access and recreational value.

CFPB and Freddie Mac Research

A 2025 Consumer Financial Protection Bureau report found that mortgage applicants in inland FEMA flood zones generally had:

  • Lower incomes
  • Lower credit scores
  • Smaller down payments
  • Less ability to self-insure. 

“Approved mortgage applicants in inland flood zones have lower credit scores and income than approved mortgage applicants for properties in minimal flood risk areas,” says the report.

Freddie Mac studied Houston and Harris County home prices before and after Harvey. Freddie Mac found that floodplain properties sell at a discount and that, after flooding, that discount doubled.

Screen capture from “Unravelling Perceptions of Flood Risk: Examining Changes in Home Prices in Harris County, Texas in the Aftermath of Hurricane Harvey.” by Freddie Mac.

Lower prices naturally attract more cost-sensitive buyers, including many first-time buyers. 

Other studies suggest younger buyers and buyers with less flood experience DO NOT give as much weight to flood risk as older, more experienced buyers. One 2025 housing-market study found younger buyers in flood-prone regions often did not demand meaningful price discounts for risk exposure, while older buyers did. 

Compared to safer homes on higher ground, inland floodplains typically feature:

  • Cheaper land
  • Newer suburban growth
  • Fringe development areas
  • Weaker zoning or drainage standards
  • Higher proportions of entry-level housing.

This pattern is especially visible around rapidly growing metro areas such as Houston. Here, developable non-floodplain land near employment centers is increasingly scarce and expensive.

A recent Houston Chronicle investigation found 65,000 homes built in mapped floodplains across the Houston region since Harvey, partly because flood-prone land has higher profit margins. 

Why First-time Buyers are Particularly Vulnerable

Several factors converge in the “first-time” market:

  • Lower purchase price dominates decision-making
  • Buyers may underestimate flood probability
  • Insurance costs are poorly understood
  • FEMA maps can understate actual risk
  • Mortgage qualification focuses on payment affordability more than flood-risk; lenders simply require flood insurance.

There is also evidence that many buyers misunderstand flood insurance. Surveys show a substantial share of Americans incorrectly believe homeowners insurance covers flood damage. 

In Houston Region

These dynamics can become especially pronounced because:

  • Floodplain land is often among the last large tracts available near growth corridors
  • Drainage rules vary by jurisdiction; some keep standards low to attract growth
  • First-time buyers may not have experienced prior floods
  • Many buyers speak English as a second language, as in Colony Ridge
  • Rapidly changing hydrology can outpace FEMA map updates.

That creates a situation where entry-level subdivisions may be marketed as “compliant” with current regulations while still carrying substantial, unrecognized flood risk.

A Personal Testament

I once fell into that exact trap when I was much younger. I bought a house on Spring Creek in the Dallas area. The developer promised me, “You’re two feet above the 100-year floodplain.” That sounded safe. Plus, the view was gorgeous and the bank was willing to loan us the money. We bought it.

But within three years, we flooded. I worked with the City Engineer and Army Corps to re-evaluate flooding on the creek. They found that because of upstream development in those three years, we went from two feet above the 100-year floodplain to 10 feet below it.

We sold the house at a $60,000 loss and moved on. In today’s dollars, that would equal $200,000.

Somewhere along the way, I learned that “Built to code” does not necessarily mean “low flood risk.” In many jurisdictions, it simply means the structure meets the minimum regulatory elevation or mitigation standard tied to existing maps and assumptions which could be decades old.

Most first time buyers don’t realize that flood risk can change faster than flood maps. Much faster. They also don’t realize that the chances of getting flooded in a 100-year floodplain during the lifespan of a 30-year mortgage is 26% – a more than one in four chance.

Buyers beware.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/14/26

3180 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Houston Chronicle Misses Many Points on HCFCD Leadership Discussion

The Houston Chronicle published an editorial about the leader of the Harris County Flood Control District, Tina Petersen, Ph.D., this morning. Harris County Commissioners will discuss her job performance tomorrow in executive session. The move was prompted by the detailed disclosure on May 1, 2026, of the status of Community Development Block Grant Projects (CDBG).

Petersen spread sunshine in the form of vague generalities about the projects at Commissioners Court until Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey started demanding detailed information. The results were shocking. Especially for 11 CDBG projects with a deadline of 2/28/27 – roughly nine months away. The projects usually take 1-2 years to complete. Recently, one took FOUR years!

Point/Counterpoint

Because the Chronicle is a copyrighted publication, I will quote only the passages that struck me as “off the wall,” then state why I disagree with them.

What Harris County Needs?

The Chronicle headline read: “Harris County needs stable leadership at Flood Control — not backroom politics.”

My headline would have read, “Harris County needs results, accountability and transparency from Flood Control – not excuses.”

Worse Time?

Their editorial board recommends keeping her and says that this discussion “couldn’t come at a worse time.” Actually, it could in my opinion. It could come when there’s no longer any hope of saving hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding.

At the moment, there may still be time to turn some of the projects around. The editorial board seems to assume that if a project is in construction, the GLO will automatically grant an extension. But the GLO has repeatedly said that any extension(s) would depend on how close any given project is to completion.

The Chronicle also doesn’t consider what would happen if a project were started, but not completed in time – a nightmare scenario from a financial point of view.

All But Two Projects under Contract?

The Chronicle claims, “All but two [emphasis added] of those projects are under contract for construction, putting the flood control district in a good position to formally request an extension on the federal funds…”

HCFCD’s own spreadsheet shows that four construction contracts have not been awarded yet – Genoa Red Bluff, Kluge, Isom Street and Dinner Creek Stormwater Detention Basins.

Worse, nine of the 11 projects have not yet billed a penny. Only two have billed anything and one of those is seriously behind schedule,

The Chronicle should understand that “under contract” does not mean “under construction.” It can take contractors months to mobilize for construction.

Undermine Progress?

The Chronicle claims, “A leadership change at this juncture would likely undermine that progress.”

What progress are they referring to?

Responsible Governance?

The Chronicle believes that changing leadership “would be a return to the bad old days of Commissioners Court, defined by opaque maneuvering, where political relationships often took precedence over responsible governance.”

Do you mean like when they hired Petersen?

To my way of thinking, responsible governance is governance that delivers results. The Chronicle seems to defend the squandering of tax dollars. A change in leadership would show GLO and HUD that Harris County does not accept failure and misdirection.

Lost Confidence?

The Chronicle stated, “This turmoil is what we feared would happen after County Judge Lina Hidalgo stated she “lost confidence” in Petersen.

I believe Hidalgo had valid concerns. The flood control district was not being transparent enough in providing timely updates. It was not providing actionable data to commissioners and the public regarding projects that were in jeopardy of losing funding.

Scapegoating?

“We don’t think the current executive should be scapegoated,” says the Chronicle, “… and neither should any county resident who cares about keeping floodwater out of their living room.”

Huh? Since when is making a leader accountable for the performance of her team “scapegoating”? And how are county residents being scapegoated? They’re the victims here.

Productive Relationships?

The Chronicle also believes that Petersen “helped rebuild productive relationships with the General Land Office and Department of Housing and Urban Development…”

Name your sources, Chronicle! Put quotes around their praise so that other media can verify what they said. Vague generalities got us into this mess.

Reasons?

“If there’s a reason to fire Peterson, tell the public what it is,” said the Chronicle editorial. 

Duh again! She is failing and jeopardizing hundreds of millions of dollars. Here’s the link to her own spreadsheet again. If the Chronicle leadership missed deadlines and financial projections by years, how long do you think it would be before Hearst pulled the plug?

What happened to transparency, accountability and results? Do those no longer count in the Chronicle’s world?

You might also want to check previous department head turnover, Chronicle. Four years ago, 16 of 20 department heads turned over with whole layers of management underneath them. Where were you then, Editorial Board?

Non Sequiturs?

The Chronicle editorial claims that if local leaders remove Petersen, it could lead to HCFCD “being put under state control.”

This may have something to do with legislation proposed in 2025 that died in committee. The Chronicle doesn’t give specifics. It just says, “The state Legislature has proposed a bill that would put the district under state control.” What does that have to do with Tina Petersen’s performance?

Here’s another non sequitur, Chronicle! Rep. Dennis Paul did introduce a bill (HB2068 in 2025) that would have created a river-basin-wide flood-control district. The Chronicle correctly stated that the bill would have had directors appointed by the governor. But the Houston Chronicle omitted the fact that it only would have been created after voters in individual counties approved it. Please explain how voter approval infringes on local control in your minds?

And by the way, “legislatures” don’t introduce bills; “legislators” do. Just FYI.

Rash Decisions?

“We urge Commissioners Court to table any rash decisions on flood control leadership on Thursday,” says the editorial.

News flash, Chronicle! This train has been coming down the tracks for years.

Open Discussion of Personnel Matters?

The editorial concludes with the admonition that any discussion of Petersen’s future “should be discussed openly…”

Such public discussions can result in people becoming virtually unemployable for the rest of their careers, which is why state law allows and county policy encourages such discussions in Executive Session.

But you’re entitled to your opinions. And I respect your right to voice them. Please just make sure they’re based on facts.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/13/26

3179 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

May 2026 Northpark Expansion Update

5/11/2026 – Since my last update in April on the Northpark Drive expansion project, the most visible changes have occurred at the south entry pond on US59 and at the approach for the eastern ramp for the bridge over the UnionPacific Railroad Tracks.

Contractors have excavated the south pond deeper and paved up to the start of the ramp. Compare the photos below taken today with those taken on 4/24/26.

Photos Taken on 5/11/2026

Let’s start at 59. The south pond is still under construction. This morning, contractors were pumping it out. The Harris County Flood Warning System gage at 59 and the West Fork received 1.2 inches of rain overnight.

Looking S at southern entry pond. Note pump in upper right.
Reverse angle. The north entry pond looks further along.
Looking E toward 494 from over 59 shows comparative progress of both ponds.
The western ramp for the bridge will go in unpaved area in the middle of the frame. However, they have not yet started on that.
Intersection of Loop 494 and Northpark, looking E. When the inbound and outbound surface lanes are complete the bridge itself will go up where traffic now pinches down to the center lanes.
However, before completion of the surface lanes, traffic and crossing signals must be moved out of the way.
The last few feet on each side of the tracks remain unpaved for now.
Father E, contractors have not yet paved the eastern ramp.
Walls for the ramp appear virtually complete. Note fresh cement at base of ramp in upper right.
That fresh cement is the second major change since the last update.
The rest of the way to the eastern terminus of the project just past Russell-Palmer has not changed much since the last update.
Looking E at Russell Palmer intersection

For More Information

See the project page of the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority website, including a three-week look-ahead schedule.

You can also search ReduceFlooding.com using the keyword “Northpark.”

Finally, Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ10 will hold a board meeting on 5/14/2026 starting at 8 AM at the Kingwood Community Center, 4102 Rustic Woods Drive, Kingwood, TX 77345. Here is the Agenda. They will discuss not only the current phase of the project, but a regional detention basin and the next phase of the road expansion as well. This board packet gives you a sense of what they will review.

The public will have a chance to ask question and make comments at the start of the meeting.

When complete, Northpark will be the first all-weather evacuation route from Kingwood for approximately 80,000 people.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/11/2026

3177 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Harris County Commissioners Will Discuss HCFCD Executive Director in Executive Session

5/9/2026 – During the 5/14/2026 Harris County Commissioner’s Court Meeting, Commissioners will discuss Harris County Flood Control District Executive Director Dr. Tina Petersen in Executive Session with an eye to taking possible action.

Item #490 on the Agenda reads:

Request by the Commissioner of Precinct 3 for an Executive Session pursuant to Texas Government Code Section 551.074(a) for discussion and possible action regarding the Executive Director of the Harris County Flood Control District.

Section 551.074 allows commissioners to conduct sessions in private when deliberating the employment, evaluation, reassignment, duties, discipline, or dismissal of a public officer or employee.

Performance Issues

Petersen’s performance has come under increasing scrutiny in the last few years as HCFCD projects have bogged down. For instance:

  • Construction of the Mercer Basin in Rodney Ellis’ Precinct One was started in 2022 on an expedited basis. But what should have taken one year took four. The project just finished. (See Item 389).
  • Funding for the reconstruction of Poor Farm Ditch in West U and South Side Place was announced in June 2023. But bid approval is on the May 14, 2026 agenda. (See Item 275).
  • The construction contract for the Woodridge/Taylor Gully project was awarded in March 2026. Seven weeks later, Item 124 on the agenda shows that HCFCD is just now requesting access to the site. As of yesterday, no construction equipment was onsite yet…not even a construction trailer.
  • Item 390 shows thathundreds of millions of dollars of CDBG-MIT and CDBG-DR projects have slipped so badly, they likely won’t meet state and federal deadlines. Of the 11 projects in the DR category only two are in construction and one of those is already seriously behind schedule. Construction bids have not yet been awarded on four others totaling approximately $90 million. Less than 9.5 months remain before deadlines kick in on projects that typically take one to two years.

Despite all that, Item 473 on the agenda shows that Petersen is requesting renewal of a $12 million contract to provide “program management, project management, construction management and inspection services for the development and implementation of CDBG-DR and CDBG-MIT projects.”

$90,000 Raise Last Year

Despite her department’s less-than-stellar performance, Commissioners awarded Petersen a $90,000 raise last year. That brought her salary to approximately $434,000 per year.

The big question at this point is…

“Will commissioners start projects they may not have money to finish?”

The $868 million in CDBG-DR and -MIT projects is on a reimbursement basis only when the job is done. Commissioners could spend a lot of money and if the projects don’t get done, they might not get reimbursed.

Will 5/14/26 be Dr. Tina Petersen’s “Day of Reckoning” that Commissioner Ellis warned about last month?

The irony here is that we had management at flood control that was doing an excellent job…until Democrats on Commissioners Court pushed them out. You can see on the graph below what has happened since.

HCFCD 2026 Q1 spending
From HCFCD.org/Activity as of 4/1/2026. Spending by project phase since start of 2018 Flood Bond Program.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/9/2026

3175 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

An Invitation to GLO Commissioner Dawn Buckingham

5/8/26 – The Texas General Land Office (GLO), despite all the good it does, has a serious conflict of interest under Commissioner Dawn Buckingham, MD.

Administratively, the Texas Permanent School Fund Corporation resides within the GLO and Buckingham has a seat on its board.

The Permanent School Fund has reportedly invested $140 million in a floodplain development in the Lake Houston Area, according to State Representative Steve Toth.

The 5300+ acre development lies at the confluence of the San Jacinto West Fork, and Spring, Cypress and Turkey Creeks. It is some of the most flood-prone land in southeast Texas.

Floodplains Streams from Ryko Drainage Study
Scarborough purchased the land (outlined in red) from Ryko last year.

So, why does a state agency responsible for flood mitigation invest in a flood-prone development? That question has never been adequately answered.

GLO administers $14.3 billion worth of flood-mitigation funds in Texas for the federal government.

GLO Website
Scarborough
Scarborough Area in center. From FEMA’s Flood Hazard Layer Viewer. These are from old flood maps. New draft maps show the situation above is far worse. Cross-hatch = floodway. Aqua = 100-year floodplain. Brown = 500-year.

One of the leading hydrologists in the area has told me that developing this land would be like “aiming a fire hose at Kingwood and Humble.”

Information Blackout

Even worse, the GLO has stonewalled all attempts to determine the extent and nature of the PSF’s investment and terms of its contract with Scarborough, the Dallas-based developer, that bought the land from Ryko last year.

All they have told reporters is that “our plans are changing.” But how? What does that mean? Are they changing a street layout? Or backing out of the investment altogether? Could they even back out of the investment at this point? What are the conditions that would let the PSF and GLO back out even if they wanted to?

Flood victims still traumatized with PTSD need specifics, not vaguely worded generalities intended to soothe an anxious public before the election.

According to FEMA, flood mitigation typically costs six times more than flood prevention. So, the decision to finance this development could easily turn into a billion dollar public expense someday: $140 mm + (6 x $140 mm) = $980 mm.

Invitation to Buckingham

So, here’s an invitation to Commissioner Buckingham. Please come to Houston and explain the thinking behind this investment. Look your audience in the eye and be specific.

Don’t rely on vaguely worded press releases with prosaic flatulence like “Our plans are changing.” Tell us how they are changing. Do you intend to turn this land into a state park? To me, that’s the only positive that could come from this misguided episode of “As the Rivers Rise.”

Until Then, Sign Petition

Absent that, I urge everyone in the Lake Houston region to sign the petition against the Scarborough development. Make your concerns heard. It’s your money and your safety.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/8/26

3174 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

MoCo P4 Commissioner Matt Gray on Growth, Flooding, Responsible Development

5/6/27 – Montgomery County Precinct 4 Commissioner Matt Gray addressed a packed East Montgomery County Chamber luncheon today about the often conflicting issues of property rights, growth, flooding and public safety. Both during the meeting and in an hour-long, one-on-one interview after it, he stressed the need for responsible development that mitigated downstream flooding impacts.

Montgomery County Precinct 4 Commissioner Matt Gray

Managing Growth

Montgomery County has consistently ranked as one of the fastest growing counties in America. And Gray’s Precinct 4 alone expects to add another 14,000 to 16,000 rooftops in the next five years.

Gray is finishing his first term and running for another. “If you’ve followed me for any amount of time, you’ve heard me talk about steering and managing the growth. That’s been my mission and my office’s mission,” Gray told the crowd.

In that regard, he talked about helping to update Montgomery County’s:

Catching Up with Past Growth

He also discussed catching up with past growth. “We’re just now addressing issues and roads that have been a burr under the saddle for 20, 25 years,” said Gray. “You get all these new developments off a lonely country road. Well, it’s no longer a lonely country road. Next thing you know…you can’t move. And I get 50 calls a day.”

Funding Challenges and Triumphs

Gray also talked about his efforts in Washington, D.C. and with the Texas General Land Office to fund badly needed flood-mitigation and drainage projects. In the “win column,” Gray points to:

  • De-snagging (eliminating logjams) on Caney Creek, Peach Creek, East Fork of SanJac, and White Oak Creek. That grant from the Texas General Land Office (GLO) has been awarded. Work is kicking off in 2026. Full contract value is $60.4 million with $36.4 million being spent in East Montgomery County. Contractors will clean debris out of almost 100 miles of the tributaries – just within Precinct 4.
  • Completing $10 million in outfall drainage improvements using federal dollars (ARPA) to clean out an estimated 138,000 linear feet of outfalls throughout the precinct
  • Taylor Gully clean up and maintenance
  • A $7.7 million grant for a historically “never-been-drained” neighborhood – Porter Heights
  • Partnership with HCFCD to install and maintain 4 flood gages on major bridges/watersheds – all visible on Harris County Flood Warning System. They include:
    • Caney Creek @ US 59
    • Caney Creek @ Firetower Rd.
    • Peach Creek @ FM 1485 East
    • Peach Creek @ Roman Forest Blvd.
  • HCFCD Woodridge Basin – Entered into an interlocal agreement with HCFCD so that their new detention basin can tie into existing MoCo basins – a win for both Harris and Montgomery counties.

Focus Now Shifting to Execution

“It was a nightmare to get the grants,” said Gray. “But I’ve got an awesome team that does an exceptional job.” Under his leadership, they applied for $130 million in grants and so far have received almost $70 million.

His focus now has shifted to executing those projects.

Gray, a construction expert and project management professional, has employed a number of strategies to improve his staff’s efficiency. He has:

  • Developed focused and comprehensive maintenance schedules by neighborhood. In 2025 alone, his team dug out more than 232,000 linear feet of drainage ditches (approximately 44 miles)
  • Worked with the Houston-Galveston Area Council to help bring more funding to the region and MoCo
  • Shifted to in-house culvert inspections and enforcement
  • Developed Interlocal agreements with MUDs
  • Continually applied for federal grants for drainage projects
  • Used constables to address floodplain violations such as unpermitted work and illegal dumping
  • Worked directly with the County’s Floodplain Administrator’s office to ensure flagged properties are brought into compliance.

Gray emphasizes action. As the Chamber’s moderator said, “Everyone in this room knows that – you and your office – when you see something that needs to be done, you just do it. You find a way to make it happen!”

“We Want Responsible Development”

Gray continued, “Our message is ‘we want responsible development.’ So what does that mean? It means a lot of things to me including, ‘we don’t want to flood our new residents or people downstream.'”

“We spent a lot of man hours sitting together, working through the drainage criteria manuals,” he added. “And we addressed the Beat-the-Peak issue. We struck that out and built in a lot more detention requirements than ever existed previously in this county.”

Beat-the-Peak refers to a loophole in previous regulations that let developers avoid building detention basins if they could prove they could get their stormwater to a river before the peak of a flood arrived.

The theory was that that would not be adding to the peak. But in practice, it encouraged everyone to get their water to the river as quickly as possible – exactly the opposite of what you want to do in a flood.

Gray who has fond memories of growing up near the East Fork San Jacinto and FM1485 is haunted now by the sight of flooded neighborhoods there.

If anyone can make a difference, I’m sure he can. He’s a man on a mission.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/6/26

3172 Days since Hurricane Harvey