Subsidence Update: HGSD 2025 Groundwater Report

4/30/26 – The Harris-Galveston Subsidence District (HGSD) has published a presentation that summarizes the major findings of its 2025 Annual Groundwater Report. HGSD also heard public comments on the report this morning, which the HGSD Board will review on May 13 before the report becomes final.

The major finding: serious subsidence continues in a band that stretches across southern Montgomery County into northwest Harris County out to Katy. See red area below.

Page 40 from HGSD 2025 Groundwater presentation.

A monitoring station in Katy measured a total of 35 cm of subsidence since 2007 with an average rate between 2021-2025 of 2.64 cm/yr. Thirty-five centimeters is 13.77 inches. 2.64 centimeters equals 1.03 inches.

What Causes Subsidence and What it Affects

Groundwater withdrawals lead to compaction of soils which, in turn, leads to subsidence or a sinking of the land surface.

Subsidence is critical near the coast. A whole subdivision in Baytown sank below the waves. But even in inland areas, differential subsidence can create bowls in the landscape that make structures more susceptible to flooding.

In places the cumulative rate of subsidence has been enough to erase the safety margins between foundations and floodplains.

Subsidence also causes cracks in pipelines, storm drains, roads, driveways, and foundations that can lead to expensive repairs. Problems are especially severe near fault lines because subsidence can activate fault movement.

History of HGSD and Subsidence in Houston Region

The Texas Legislature created HGSD 50 years ago to regulate groundwater withdrawals and slow subsidence. HGSD divided the region up into three regulatory areas, based on need at the time. The area with the lowest need then has the highest need now, because it took longer for regulations to kick in.

The regulations create incentives for people to reduce usage of groundwater.

Since 1988, groundwater-level altitudes in wells are down 200 to 300+ feet in portions of southern Montgomery County and west-central Harris County.

This year’s annual report covers four main areas. Discussions of a) climate, b) water use and c) groundwater levels. Those three factors result in d) subsidence. Next, let’s briefly look at the three contributing factors.

Climate

Drought spread throughout the region last year and accelerated in the second half. The tan areas in the graph below show the rainfall deficit versus the average from 1991 to 2020. Each monitoring station showed significant deficits.

Page 7 of 2025 Annual Report Presentation

Less rain means more irrigation of lawns and crops. And much of that supplementary water comes from the ground.

Groundwater Use

The discussion of groundwater withdrawals starts with the three different regulatory areas.

Page 12 of presentation. Note the different requirements for Area 3.

The next two pages show dramatic declines of groundwater usage in Areas 1 and 2. However, it’s a different story in Area 3 which also has the greatest subsidence. Groundwater usage is down slightly in the last 25 years, but still hovering near the 50-year average.

Page 13 of presentation

When you add up groundwater usage from all three areas, you can clearly see two things:

  • Overall decline in usage
  • Region 3 represents 83% of the total
Page 14. Note how Region 3 comprised roughly a third of groundwater usage in 1976.

As we reduce groundwater consumption, we’re relying more on alternative water sources, such as surface water from the three major rivers that feed our region. Increasingly, we rely on water from the Trinity River and Lake Livingston.

Page 17

So how does all that actually translate into water-level declines? HGSD has observed declines in wells throughout the region. Those wells are drilled into three aquifers that supply us: the Jasper, Chicot and Evangeline. The last two are undifferentiated and effectively form one unit for research purposes.

In the next two charts, note how areas with the greatest water-level declines have experienced the most subsidence.

Page 27 focuses on declines in the Chicot/Evangeline aquifers.
Page 28 focuses on declines in the Jasper aquifer.

The full 40-page presentation contains much more detail. For instance, it describes water level declines at individual wells. The presentation also reviews data from multiple sources/technologies as a cross-check for consistency and reliability.

Next Steps

HGSD has not yet published its full 2025 Annual Groundwater report. This presentation was intended to give the public a chance to comment on a preview this morning. HGSD’s board will consider a resolution to approve the report at its regularly scheduled meeting on the third Wednesday in May.

Upon approval, HGSD will publish the report, all supporting documents and an updated interactive subsidence map on its website.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/30/26

3166 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Severe Weather Threats This Week

4/29/26 – The National Weather Service’s Houston/Galveston Office has issued severe weather outlooks and excessive rainfall forecasts for Wednesday night 4/29/26 and Friday 5/1/2026. Thursday 4/30 2026 also has a chance of flash flooding.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect when.

Scattered Thunderstorms, Some Possibly Severe This Evening

According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “A period of active weather will begin today over the region and linger into late Friday. A frontal boundary is currently approaching SE TX from the north. Ahead of this boundary a moist and unstable air mass is in place. With daytime heating, instability will increase through the day.”

“Thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to become severe. Large hail appears to be the primary threat although damaging winds are possible also,” says Lindner. He also says that tornados are possible. “The main threat for severe weather will be generally north of I-10 in the evening hours. Storms will gradually weaken toward the southeast into the mid to late evening.”

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2 out of 5 severe threat for this afternoon and evening generally north of I-10 and level 1 out of 5 south of I-10. See below.

Although NWS believes the chances of rainfall for the Lake Houston Area are about 30% this evening, rainfall accumulations could be excessive in areas that receive rain – from 1″ to 3″ per hour.

Frontal Boundary Expected to Stall on Thursday

Lindner says, “The frontal boundary will stall between the coast and I-10 with active southwest flow aloft bringing disturbances across the area on Thursday.”

Daytime heating will once again bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, especially north of I-10. The severe threat is lower on Thursday with much of the region in the “slightly cooler and more stable air.” However, there will be the potential for additional heavy rainfall. Much of the northwest half of the area is outlooked in a Level 1 out of 4 threat for flash flooding.

100% Chance of Heavy Rain on Friday

NWS forecasts a 100% chance of rain for Friday in the Lake Houston Area. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms. A strong upper level storm system will progress eastward over Texas. Additionally, a strong cold front will arrive from the north during the day.

Lindner predicts “… heavy rainfall with potentially training thunderstorms along slow moving boundaries within a very moist air mass.”

The NWS Weather Prediction Center has already issued a Level 2 out 4 flash flood threat. With grounds becoming primed over the next 24-48 hours, additional heavy rainfall on Friday could yield more significant run-off.

Much of the severe weather threat will depend on where a surface low forms. For now, the NWS Storm Prediction Center sees Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms – generally south of I-10. 

A strong cold front will sweep across the region Friday afternoon and evening with falling temperatures. Compared to the recent warm temps, lows will fall into the 50’s and even 40’s over the weekend. Highs should reach the 60’s and 70’s with much lower humidity and gusty north winds.

Gale Conditions Possible Along Coast on Saturday

Strong northerly winds may result in gale conditions for portions of the coastal waters on Saturday.

It’s Getting to Be That Time of Year

May is usually the third wettest month of the year in Houston. And here comes the rain. Right on time. Looking back to 1991, only June and October have averaged more rainfall.

In that regard, let’s not forget the May storms we had in 2024. They were followed quickly by the derecho later that month. That was definitely a month for the scrapbooks!

Hurricane Season Around the Corner

Hurricane season starts June 1 – just a month away. It’s time to finish those roof repairs, clean out the gutters, trim those dead limbs off the tree in your yard, and stock up on supplies.

And don’t forget to bookmark these sites:

The links page of this website also offers links to dozens of other helpful websites. Before hurricane season starts, make sure to check out these preparedness guides.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/29/26

3165 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Sign Petition to Reduce Your Flood Risk, Protect Floodplain

4/28/26 – To everyone in southern Montgomery County and the Lake Houston Area: please consider signing the petition discussed below concerning the proposed Scarborough Development. It may help preserve vital floodplains in your area, thereby reducing your flood risk.

Background on Proposed Development

A Dallas-based developer named Scarborough has purchased 5,300+ acres of land at the confluence of the San Jacinto West Fork and Spring Creek. Hydrologists say that developing this land would be like aiming a fire hose at the Humble/Kingwood area. Backwater effects could also increase flood risk for Montgomery County residents.

Harris County and City of Houston have already unanimously passed resolutions opposing development of this flood-prone land. However, the Texas General Land Office and School Land Board have reportedly pledged $140 million to help develop it.

Petition to Stop Government Secrecy Surrounding the Plan

Unfortunately, the GLO and Attorney General Paxton’s office are concealing details of how the state is spending your tax dollars to flood you.

This petition on change.org (https://c.org/77yd6YRMZ8) will help convey your concerns to Montgomery County and State leaders.

Please forward this link to everyone you know in the area and anyone concerned about open, transparent government.

Also, please talk this issue up at community events. The poster below summarizes key points.

Here’s the area purchased by Scarborough. See area outlined in red below.

Ryko drainage impact study illustration showing outline and floodplains.
Blue and gray shaded areas represent flood zones.

Cypress Creek, Spring Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork all converge here. Flood heights could reach 18 to 25 feet above dry land in this area.

FEMA BFE of Ryko Land at Confluence
Base Flood Elevations near confluence

Here are FEMA’s CURRENT effective floodplains and floodways.

Ryko Flood risk
Crosshatch = Floodway, Aqua = 100-year floodplain, Brown – 500-year floodplain.

However, keep in mind that that map is in the process of being replaced. New maps show even more of the property in more dangerous flood zones.

MAAPnext shows new flood maps based on post-Harvey data, with a slider that lets you see how much floodplains and floodways expanded across the southern portion of Scarborough’s land.

Please Help: Sign Petition Now

By signing this petition, you are advocating for responsible development that prioritizes the welfare of our community in Spring, TX and the surrounding areas of Kingwood, Humble and the Lake Houston area by preserving this land and keeping it as a green space.

Please help prevent a potentially disastrous project and ensure a more secure future for us all. Please sign this petition to make a stand against the Scarborough Lane Development. Now! It will only take a minute.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/28/2026

3164 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Surprising Impacts of Depopulation on Flood Control

4/27/2026 – I recently read Bill King’s fascinating new book, Depopulation: Our New Demographics Reality. The demographic trends he discusses have huge implications for flooding and flood control.

It may seem insane to talk about depopulation in most places. The world has grown from 1 to 8 billion people in the last two centuries. And it may seem even more insane in a region like Houston.

“We’ve built our entire world—our economies, cities, institutions, and expectations—on the assumption that growth never ends,” says King. “In 63 countries, home to 28 percent of the world’s people, populations are shrinking right now. China’s population is collapsing. Europe is aging into irrelevance. Global fertility has plummeted to barely above replacement level—and it’s still falling.” He continues…

“Yet while policymakers scramble and nations face demographic catastrophe, most people remain blissfully unaware.”

Bill King

Suspend Disbelief Momentarily

So, let’s suspend disbelief for a few minutes and discuss what the implications of shrinking population growth could be for flood control – both negative and positive.

Shrinking population growth would change hydrologic, financial, and planning assumptions behind flood control. The impacts would be seen over time in: 

  • Land-use change
  • Infrastructure financing
  • Risk distribution.
Houston Skyline over Beltway 8/59 Interchange
Central Houston from over the Beltway 8/US59 Interchange

Slower Population Growth Would Slow Increases in Runoff

Population growth typically increases flooding risk because it increases impervious cover (roofs, streets, parking lots). Impervious surfaces reduce infiltration and increase peak discharge.

If growth slows, so would peak discharges. Flood infrastructure may end up over-sized if development slows enough. People in danger of flooding may consider that good news. It lowers their risk and gives them more time to implement solutions.

Depopulation could make it easier for flood infrastructure to keep up with development. Agencies could shift from reactive to preventive flood management. Infrastructure projects could catch up with development. However, it’s not all good news.

Increasing Financial Pressure

On the other hand, slower population growth would make it more difficult to fund large, capital-intensive flood-mitigation projects.

We usually fund such projects through some combination of property taxes, impact fees and/or bond programs. When property taxes grow more slowly, impact fees decline sharply, and developer-built detention capacity decreases, flood control agencies may struggle. This is reportedly a common problem in shrinking or no-growth cities.

At the same time, long-term infrastructure liabilities grow. When population stagnates or shrinks, as it did in Rust Belt Cities for decades, so does the tax base. But maintenance costs remain, increasing the per-capita infrastructure burden. Fewer people must support aging drainage systems.

Land Conservation Becomes Easier

On the positive side again, slower growth increases opportunities for floodplain preservation. With less pressure to build subdivisions in floodplains and over wetlands, there’s more room for detention space and green infrastructure. This can dramatically reduce downstream flood peaks.

Preservation is already much more cost-effective than flood mitigation. In a low-demand, cost-constrained environment, preservation becomes even more financially attractive.

Sediment and Channel Impacts Decline

Another potential positive. Since Hurricane Harvey, I’ve researched hundreds of articles showing how development drives:

Slower growth typically means:

  • Fewer disturbed soils
  • Less sediment entering rivers
  • Slower aggradation of channels and reservoirs

This could potentially reduce flooding impacts and dredging requirements downstream.

Change in Planning Horizons

Planners usually design flood infrastructure for a service life of 50 to 100 years. If population growth slows, that infrastructure may appear overbuilt initially, but the extra capacity could support the surrounding population over a longer period.

Planning Assumptions May Become Obsolete

Many flood models reportedly assume steady population and urban growth. If demographic reality changes, agencies may need to update/debate:

  • Watershed build-out assumptions
  • Impervious cover forecasts
  • Detention requirements

These will likely become hotly contested public debates fueled by shrinking demand for the services of contractors and homebuilders eager to maintain their profitability. Competition will become cutthroat in shrinking industries. And pressure on legislators and regulators to “cut us some slack” may become irresistible.

If regional population declines, companies will struggle to survive by offering higher quality. This could continue to fuel population growth in suburban submarkets. We saw this in northern rust-belt cities such as Detroit and Cleveland during the last century. Consumers will always look for better quality, especially as the aging infrastructure in urban cores deteriorates.

Strategic Opportunities

With less development pressure, governments can shift from parcel-level detention toward regional systems, such as:

  • Large, regional detention basins
  • Floodplain buyouts
  • Restored wetlands
  • Green corridors

Hydrologists tell me these are usually more effective and more economical than small, distributed detention ponds.

Conclusion

While shrinking or slower population growth could generally reduce future flood-risk, it will also reduce funding capacity for mitigation.

Shrinking population should reduce growth of impervious cover, runoff, sedimentation, and revenue. But it will also increase the maintenance burden per capita.

The net result will depend on whether the hydrologic benefits of slower development outweigh the fiscal constraints on flood-mitigation investment.

Changes will not happen overnight. Developers will keep building because they believe buyers will trade up from older housing.

In other cities, it has taken 20-30 years for reality to catch up after population decline begins. During that time, superior new housing will capture demand from older neighborhoods. I just pray the new housing is not in risky, flood-prone areas.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/27/26 with help from Bill King, Several Hydrologists, and ChatGPT

3163 Days since Harvey

Northpark Making Good Progress Despite a Few Hiccups

4/25/26 – Since I last posted about the Northpark Drive Expansion Project in Kingwood eleven days ago, contractors have continued to push forward.

They have also virtually completed everything east of the bridge abutment all the way to the eastern terminus of the project near the Kingwood Diversion Ditch. Here’s an update on what is and isn’t complete in Phase I.

Eastern Part of Project Virtually Done

The entire project from US59 to the eastern terminus is about a mile. Eight-tenths of that mile is virtually complete – everything between Parkwood Baptist Church to the start of the eastern bridge abutment in front of the Quick Quack Car Wash.

In this segment of the project, I observed:

  • Medians that need to be planted with grass in some areas
  • One lane of traffic on each side of the median still blocked off
  • Traffic cones still blocking off turn lanes where new traffic control lights have not yet been activated
  • A few gaps in “multi-use pathways.” They’re those things that resemble sidewalks, but are wider.

Other than that, it’s clear sailing in wider lanes than existed before the project. See the pictures below all taken during the afternoon of April 24, 2026. The sequence goes from east to west beginning near Russell Palmer Road.

Between Parkwood Baptist and Advance Auto Parts, looking at the newly completed turn lanes at Russell Palmer.
New traffic signals at Russell Palmer are installed but not yet activated. Multi-use pathways in this area need the most help of anywhere else on the entire project.
Just beyond Russell Palmer, we can see that pathways still have a few gaps and that the median has been scraped down to the dirt.
Farther west, by Warren’s Landscaping
Still father west by Smart Storage
Approaching the entrance to Italiano’s and Kings Mill (left side).
Sherwin Williams and Quick Quack on right mark the end of the mostly completed segment.

Bridge Construction

Things get a little hairier in the last 2/10s of a mile. The east abutment is coming along well. It appears to have reached its full height or close to it.

Eastern bridge abutment

According to the new three-week look ahead schedule, contractors will begin paving up to the ramp next week.

Railroad Crossing

So far, that’s all great news. But Northpark contractors still are working out issues at the UnionPacific Railroad crossing near Loop 494.

On the south side of Northpark, two traffic signal poles still block completion of the new surface lanes. Of course, they’re needed to control traffic for now.

Note unpaved sections of new surface lanes to left of inbound traffic.
On the north side of Northpark, UPRR has installed new crossing signals, but the multi-use pathway is not complete.

Zig Zag Continues

Traffic near Loop 494 continues to curve in and out around a) the eastern bridge abutment and b) where the western bridge abutment will eventually go between Whataburger and PNC Bank.

Wide shot showing current traffic pattern near bridge
Second abutment will be built in the “dirt covered” area west of Loop 494.

Entry-Pond Excavation

Meanwhile, excavation of the south entry pond at US59 continues.

Looking N across southern pond
Excavation of the northern pond appears complete.

Contractors will apply cement and line both ponds at the same time to save money. That should happen around mid-May, 2026.

Street Illumination and Hydro-Mulch for Ditch One

The street light crew is continuing installation of street light foundations and light poles throughout the project.

Ditch 1 reestablishment has been completed.

Northpark expansion ditch one excavation
Ditch One behind businesses on the north side of Northpark has been restored to its original design parameters.

Contractors will seed the slopes with hydro-mulch during the week of 5/4/26, weather permitting.

For More Information

See the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ 10 web pages associated with this project for plans, videos and construction timelines. They also include a new 3-week lookahead schedule.

You can also search this website for “Northpark” for links to close to more than 200 posts about the progress of the project.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/25/2026

3161 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Sales Tax Holiday on Emergency Supplies – April 25-27

4/24/25 – Sales tax on emergency supplies will be suspended from April 25-27, 2026. This is a great opportunity to stock up on things you might need for hurricane season and save some money.

Prepare yourself during the 2026 Emergency Preparation Supplies Sales Tax Holiday. There is no limit on the number of qualifying items you can purchase, and you do not need to give an exemption certificate to claim the exemption.

This year’s holiday begins at 12:01 a.m. on Saturday, April 25, and ends at midnight on Monday, April 27.

Save tax on batteries, lanterns, flashlights and more this weekend.

What Qualifies


These emergency preparation supplies qualify for tax exemption if purchased for a sales price:

  • Less than $3000
    • Portable generators
  • Less than $300
    • Emergency ladders
    • Hurricane shutters
  • Less than $75
    • Axes
    • Batteries, single or multipack (AAA cell, AA cell, C cell, D cell, 6 volt or 9 volt)
    • Can openers – nonelectric
    • Carbon monoxide detectors
    • Coolers and ice chests for food storage – nonelectric
    • Fire extinguishers
    • First aid kits
    • Fuel containers
    • Ground anchor systems and tie-down kits
    • Hatchets
    • Ice products – reusable and artificial
    • Light sources – portable self-powered (including battery operated)
      • Examples of items include: candles, flashlights and lanterns
    • Mobile telephone batteries and mobile telephone chargers
    • Radios – portable self-powered (including battery operated) – includes two-way and weather band radios
    • Smoke detectors
    • Tarps and other plastic sheeting.

Note: Several over-the-counter self-care items, such as antibacterial hand sanitizer, soap, spray and wipes, are always exempt from sales tax if they are labeled with a “Drug Facts” panel in accordance with federal Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulations.

What Does NOT Qualify


These supplies do NOT qualify for tax exemption:

  • Medical masks and face mask.
  • Cleaning supplies, such as disinfectants and bleach wipes
  • Gloves, including leather, fabric, latex and types used in healthcare
  • Toilet paper
  • Batteries for automobiles, boats and other motorized vehicles
  • Camping stoves
  • Camping supplies
  • Chainsaws
  • Plywood
  • Extension ladders
  • Stepladders
  • Tents
  • Repair or replacement parts for emergency preparation supplies
  • Services performed on, or related to, emergency preparation supplies.


Online Purchases and Telephone Orders

During the holiday you can buy qualifying emergency preparation supplies in-store, online, by telephone, mail, custom order, or any other means. The sale of the item must take place during the specific period. The purchase date is easy to determine when the purchase is made in-store but becomes more complicated with remote purchases.

The purchaser must have given the consideration for the item during the period even if the item may not be delivered until after the period is over.

For example, if a purchaser enters their credit card information in an online shopping website on Monday, April 27, 2026, at 5:00 p.m.to purchase a qualifying generator, but the generator will not be shipped until Friday, May 1, 2026, and will not arrive until Tuesday, May 5, 2026, the purchase will still qualify for the exemption.

However, if the charge to credit card is declined by the payment processor at 11:00 p.m. on Monday, April 27, 2026, and the purchaser does not resubmit payment until Tuesday, April 28, 2026, the purchase is taxable.

Additional Charges Affect the Sales Price

Delivery, shipping, handling and transportation charges are part of the sales price. Consider these charges when determining whether an emergency preparation supply can be purchased tax free during the holiday.

For example, you purchase a rescue ladder for $299 with a $10 delivery charge, for a total sales price of $309. Because the total sales price of the ladder is more than $300, tax is due on the $309 sales price.

Sales Tax Holiday Refund Requests

Purchasers can buy certain emergency preparation supplies tax free during the annual Texas Emergency Supplies Sales Tax Holiday. If you pay sales tax on these items during the sales tax holiday, you can ask the seller for a refund of the tax paid. The seller can either grant the refund or provide their customer with Form 00-985, Assignment of Right to Refund (PDF) that allows the purchaser to file the refund claim directly with the Comptroller’s office.

Should you have additional questions about refund requests, please contact us at 800-531-5441, ext. 34545, or visit the Sales Tax Refunds web page for further details on filing a refund claim.

For more information, contact Tax Help, or call 800-252-5555.

For information on emergency preparedness, check out the Preparedness section of my links page.

Information in Spanish: Tax-Free Purchases on Emergency Supplies

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/24/2026 based on information from the Texas Comptroller

3160 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Addicks-Barker Downstream Plaintiffs Win Summary Judgement

4/23/25 – Yesterday, the law firm McGehee, Chang, Feiler – the law firm representing downstream plaintiffs in the Addicks-Barker Reservoirs litigation – announced that Judge Loren A. Smith ruled in favor of plaintiffs in their “takings” case against the Army Corps of Engineers.

Takings Clause of Fifth Amendment

“Takings” refers to the Fifth Amendment of the US Constitution. One of its clauses mandates that private property cannot be taken for public use without “just compensation.”

The vast Addicks reservoir in a May 2021 rain event. During Harvey, water was even higher.
Barker Reservoir, also in May 2021.

When the Corps released water from the reservoirs during Hurricane Harvey, it flooded downstream residents. Plaintiffs argued that the flooding amounted to a taking under the Fifth Amendment and therefore they were entitled to just compensation for their losses.

Entering Year 9 of Litigation, More Likely to Come

We are now entering Year 9 of the litigation in the Addicks-Barker case. After Judge Smith’s ruling, the law firm wrote its clients in the case. They said, “This afternoon, we finally received the long-awaited decision from the Court. We are pleased to report that the Court found in our favor.”

The Court GRANTED summary judgment in favor of plaintiffs and DENIED a summary judgment in favor of defendant on all motions.

However, while basking in the win, the firm reminded clients that this is just the first phase of the case (the liability phase). “The second phase–the determination of damages, or how much the government needs to compensate the property owners–is still ahead,” said the release. “Nonetheless, we are pleased that the Court finally issued this ruling after nine years of litigation (since 2017).”

Basis for Addicks-Barker Judgement

The Opinion from the judge is 48 pages long and is filled with legal jargon. But it is still readable.

The first 15 pages cite the legal standards that apply to the case and lay out what the plaintiffs had to prove. Without going into every detail, I will observe that the Judge sided with plaintiffs on all key issues.

  1. The time and duration of the flooding rose to the level of a taking.
  2. Flooding from the release was both intentional and foreseeable.
    • Defendant’s own data and testimony revealed that the flooding of downstream was entirely foreseeable.
    • The Corps knowingly flooded plaintiffs’ properties.
  3. The releases caused severe and catastrophic damage to plaintiffs’ properties.
  4. The character of the land and plaintiffs reasonable investment-backed expectations did not anticipate intentional flooding of their properties.
  5. Plaintiffs established that their properties experienced more flooding than if defendant had kept the gates closed.
  6. The Corps could not invoke the “necessity doctrine” to excuse themselves because the dams were not in imminent peril before they chose to release water. Further, by the Corps own post-event analysis, “There were no observations of seepage, or critical distress areas located on the dams.” No structural damage or overtopping occurred.
  7. The government’s “police powers” did not grant it immunity.

For a complete explanation, read the original opinion.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/23/26

3159 Days since Hurricane Harvey

It’s Time to Admit HCFCD is Broken

4/22/26 – Today was the last straw. I have concluded that Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) is broken.

I’ve been writing for several days about Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) projects supposedly “under construction” that aren’t. Some people might call that:

  • Lying
  • The left hand doesn’t know what the right is doing
  • Poor word-smithing or
  • Fuzzy communication designed to create the illusion of progress.

But I suspect we all can agree that it’s certainly misleading and unpardonable from a public agency.

The TC Jester East Stormwater Detention Basin 1-B makes an excellent example.

TC Jester East Basin 1-B Still Not in Construction

The TC Jester East Basin received “authorization to use government funds” on 10/30/25 – six months ago.

The construction schedule they published on 12/5/26 originally said construction would start in Q2 2026 and finish in Q4 2028 – almost two years after the Texas General Land Office deadline of 2/28/2027.

After discussions with Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey PE, HCFCD changed the finish date on the HCFCD website to Q2 2027.

But when Dr. Tina Petersen, HCFCD’s executive director, testified before Commissioners Court on 4/16/2026 to explain how she would beat the deadline, she said that TC Jester was “in construction.” So, I went to check on 4/19/26. It was not. I saw only a construction trailer onsite. No excavators, bulldozers, dump trucks, clearing or dirt moving. Just virgin forest.

So, I posted about the apparent contradiction on 4/20/26. The very next day, I received an email from HCFCD that seemed to contradict me.

  • The headline trumpeted: “Construction of Compartment 1B of the T.C. Jester East Stormwater Detention Basin is Underway!”
  • Copy said, “Construction crews are accessing the site at Cypresswood Drive and T.C. Jester Boulevard. Residents are urged to respect all warning signs.”
  • The image showed an excavator digging dirt with a construction worker in the pit.
  • Further, the email said that the site was receiving “funding up to $25.9 million through the Community Development Block Grant – Disaster Recovery Program (CDBG-DR).” However, HCFCD’s website says the amount is $20.8 million. And Petersen’s presentation to commissioners on 4/19/26 said $23.3+ million.

But it gets even better. Toward the bottom of the email, the copy says, “Anticipated Schedule: Construction Start Q1 2026.” In other words…

HCFCD anticipates starting in the past.

Screen capture from email received 4/21/26

Excited, I drove to the job site again to photograph the traffic cones, flag men, construction equipment, and bustling bulldozers supposedly onsite. Was I surprised!

Visit to Job Site Shows Construction Still Not Started

A few pickup trucks were parked outside the construction trailer. That’s it.

TC Jester East Basin 1B will wrap around this pre-existing basin where a construction trailer and a few pickups were parked.

See photos from the rest of the visit below. I took all of these on 4/22/26.

Looking E across TC Jester in foreground at treed area where basin will go.
Looking E along Cypresswood Drive. No construction equipment or other entrances in sight.
Looking at intersection of Cypresswood (l) and TC Jester (r) where email warned of equipment accessing the site.
Looking W along Cypress Creek back toward TC Jester. No clearing. No construction equipment.

If HCFCD hopes they can fool commissioners into believing that they are farther along on this project than they actually are, it’s backfiring. At this point, there probably isn’t enough time to build this project before its 2/28/27 deadline. Even HCFCD’s own construction completion date of Q2 2027 admits that.

Petersen must be banking on deadline extensions that may not come.

Smoke Screen Designed to Delay “Day of Reckoning”?

Commissioners have already approved several construction contracts associated with this funding. And HCFCD has issued multiple press releases saying those projects are in construction. But are they really?

Or, are the announcements a smokescreen for Petersen to buy more time and postpone her “Day of Reckoning,” as Rodney Ellis called it in the 4/16/26 Commissioners Court Meeting?

Such announcements mislead and could cost Harris County taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding.

If this were private-sector financial communication, investors would howl to the Securities and Exchange Commission, Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, FDIC, Federal Reserve and law enforcement.

Within the context of pressure to get these projects moving quickly or face the loss of hundreds of millions of dollars, HCFCD put out false information that masks the potential risk. Intentionally or not.

On April 16, County Judge Lina Hidalgo said to Petersen, “I just lost my confidence in you.”

So have I. It’s time for new leaders at HCFCD who can get the District moving again.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/22/26

3158 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

HCFCD Has Taken 4 Years to Spend 4% of HUD CDBG-DR Funds

4/21/26 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) has taken more than 4 years to spend about 4% of the $322 million that HUD allocated to HCFCD for Community Development Block Grants for Disaster Relief (CDBG-DR). That figure is carved out of a larger total ($868 million) that also includes CDBG Mitigation funds.

Former Texas General Land Office (GLO) Commissioner George P. Bush announced his intention to allocate $750 million of US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) funds to Harris County on 5/26/21. HUD approved that amount on 3/18/22. Subsequently, it increased when the GLO also re-allocated unused funds from storms before Harvey to Harris County.

Here’s a high-level breakdown as of today.

Source: Texas General Land Office. 4/21/26.

HCFCD has spent only 3.59% of the CDBG-DR project funds to date. That group has the tightest deadline, just 313 days away and involves roughly a third of a billion dollars.

Why Such a Low Percentage So Late In the Game?

To be fair, HCFCD had a lot of dominos to align:

  • A method of distribution (how and where the money would be spent)
  • Feasibility, preliminary-engineering, and final design studies
  • Cost estimates
  • Bids
  • Property acquisition (for some projects)
  • Obtaining GLO and HUD approval for all of the above.

But still…

Unnecessarily Burdensome Processes, Changing Horses in Midstream

Harris County made it more difficult than necessary with its own equity prioritization framework, which changed several times.

Judge Hidalgo and Commissioners Ellis and Garcia also forced out the management team that developed and sold the 2018 flood bond. Their replacement, Dr. Tina Petersen, had a long, steep learning curve and big shoes to fill. She also lost many key employees. That disrupted business continuity and cost institutional knowledge.

Since she took office, spending has gone down consistently as the pace of work slowed, partly as a consequence of a management style she calls “being more intentional.”

Self-Inflicted Wound

Having spent four years bickering about equity, the county now has just 10 months left to actually build all the jobs in order to beat a firm 2/28/27 deadline and avoid losing potentially ALL of the CDBG-DR funds.

According to a document submitted to commissioners court on 4/16/26 by Petersen and aerial photographs that I have taken, it appears that contractors are actually only turning dirt on one of 11 CDBG-DR projects.

Arbor Oaks Construction on White Oak Bayou. Project started clearing last September.

Compare that with the TC Jester Basin project shown below. Both photos were taken on 4/19/2026.

TC Jester East basin
TC Jester East Basin will go in the big treed area in the center. “Construction” was announced last December 5.

Past Experience a Logistical Red Flag

If history is any indication, the vast majority of the CDBG-DR projects will take longer than 10 months to build. Ten of the 11 are large detention basins that typically take one to two years to build. The Mercer Basin on Cypress Creek, finished just last week, took three years. And TC Jester, above, is 55% larger.

If Petersen can pull the projects off before the buzzer sounds, she deserves that $90,000 raise she got last year. If not, she won’t be the only one with egg on her face.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/21/26

3157 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Mercer Basin Delays Illustrate Risk To Eleven Projects with HUD Funding

4/20/2026 – On April 10, 2026, the Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) announced that it finally completed its Mercer Stormwater Detention Basin – two years after the originally scheduled completion date. The one-year construction project turned into three years before it was over.

Mercer’s delays underscore the risk associated with eleven similar projects with a firm completion deadline just 314 days away – 2/28/2027. They involve a third of a billion dollars in US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Community Development Block Grants for Disaster Relief (CDBG-DR) administered by the Texas General Land Office (GLO).

Harris County Commissioners have tried to understand whether the projects could miss the deadline and jeopardize the funding. But HCFCD’s executive director, Dr. Tina Petersen, has not supplied them with sufficiently detailed information to assess the risk. Her high-level reports mask logistical red flags with vague generalities.

For example, she says:

  • The TC Jester East Basin project is “in construction.” But aerial photos show that no actual construction equipment is onsite, only a construction trailer. Clearing has not yet even begun.
  • She says the Isom Street Basin on Halls Bayou is “out for bids.” But she does not address how her department will meet the same deadline, ten months away when such projects usually require one to two years.

As a consequence, Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo says she has “lost confidence” in Petersen. And Commissioners Court unanimously adopted a resolution demanding specifics about how HCFCD will complete all CDBG projects.

So, let’s look at some specifics.

Mercer Basin Had Multiple Delays

The Mercer Basin sits between Cypress Creek and FM1960 immediately east of the Hardy Tollroad. It features two dry-bottom compartments that provide an estimated 512 acre-feet of stormwater storage. It had multiple delays totaling two years, but is now finished. See the photos below taken April 19, 2026

Looking west along FM1969 (l) at southern compartment of Mercer Basin, with second basin in upper right.
Looking NW at northern compartment and Cypress Creek. Hardy Tollroad cuts through upper part of frame.
Spillway lets water overflowing from Cypress Creek into basin.
A culvert connects the northern and southern basins so that floodwater from the creek can use both for storage.

HCFCD began the project in 2022. Construction was to have begun in Spring 2023 on an expedited basis and should have finished by April 2024. But it actually finished in April 2026. See the timetable below.

Mercer basin timetable
From Rodney Ellis presentation to community on June 29, 2022.

In July 2024, I went to photograph the completed basin and discovered contractors had not yet started digging. They were still clearing the land. So, I decided to return regularly.

Playing Beat the Clock for Other Projects

That experience doesn’t bode well for 11 other CDBG-DR projects that HCFCD now has in development with a firm expiration date on funding – February 28, 2027 – just ten months away. To be more precise, there are only…

314 days left on the shot clock!

Now you know why Harris County Commissioners and the County Judge put a full court press on HCFCD Executive Director Dr. Tina Petersen in their 4/16/26 Commissioners Court meeting.

Petersen presented a vague, high-level status report. For instance, it said the TC Jester Stormwater Detention Basin project was “in construction,” but not what percentage of construction was complete. When I photographed it on 4/19/26, I saw no construction equipment – only a construction trailer. Not one tree had been cleared yet. And that basin is much larger than the Mercer Basin which took three years to build. See below.

Looking E across TC Jester at large forested area where new basin will wrap around small existing basin (middle right)

HCFCD announced that the TC Jester project would start construction “soon” back on December 5, 2025 – four and a half months ago. Now the deadline is just 10 months away. And the time-critical basin is 55% larger than the two Mercer Basins combined that took 3 years to build.

The Isom Street Project also uses CDBG-DR funds. It involves clearing an area near Halls Bayou adjacent to two existing detention basins, creating a new detention basin, and then connecting all three.

Isom Street Project on Halls Bayou. Existing basins on the left and right will connect with new one in the treed area.

The Isom Project has the same 2/28/27 deadline, but it is even less far along than TC Jester. Petersen told Commissioners Court it was “in bidding.”

At this point, it’s not clear how HCFCD will meet the deadline. And county commissioners need that clarity.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 4/20/2026

3156 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.