Sea Surface temps near Valencia flooding

Rain in Spain and Sad, Sorry State of Climate-Change Speculation

10/31/24 – An extreme rainfall event near Valencia in southern Spain on Tuesday this week fueled a spate of hasty climate-change stories. But was that the cause of the flooding?

A year’s worth of rain fell in a day. The area has an average annual rainfall of 17.87 inches. October is their rainiest month with an average 2.91 inches. But according to Fox News, they got:

  • 19.33 inches in 8 hours
  • 13.55 inches in 4 hours
  • 6.5 inches in 1 hour

Harvey Comparison

That’s pretty stout, even by Houston standards, which gets triple the average annual rainfall of Valencia’s mediterranean climate.

In fact, had that rain fallen in the Lake Houston Area during those same time periods, NOAA would have classified it between a 500- and a 1000-year storm on the Atlas 14 scale. See below.

Atlas 14
NOAA’s Atlas 14 Precipitation Frequency Estimates for Lake Houston Area

So, you can imagine the impact of that much rain in an area built to engineering standards that anticipate far less.

The death toll has climbed steadily throughout the day as search-and-rescue efforts uncover more fatalities. By 5 PM Houston time, the count had climbed to 158, but dozens still remain missing.

To put that into perspective, Harris County reported 36 deaths from Hurricane Harvey. And Harvey dropped three times the rain, but spread out over four days (August 25-29, 2017).

The major factor contributing to the different death tolls: Valencia is mountainous, and Houston is flat. The steeper geography accelerated the speed of floodwaters that carried away vehicles, bridges and even whole buildings.

Reporting is predictably focused on the gore. As the old saying in the news business goes, “If it bleeds, it leads.”

Climate-Change Hysteria

But there’s another predictable subtext to the stories: climate change. Several factors fuel the climate-change thread:

  • Readers’ desires for explanations in a less-than-predictable world.
  • Editors’ desires to provide them.
  • Academicians’ trying to raise their media profiles and obtain more grants to fund future studies on existential threats.
  • Poor public understanding of statistics and complex weather models
  • Private interests pushing agendas by using editorial content as incognito advertising.
  • Everyone’s desire to capitalize on a crisis to push their individual agendas.

Of several dozen stories from major news organizations that I reviewed for this post, only one (Fox News) refrained from climate-change speculation. It focused mainly on the rainfall amounts. Below is a rundown on several others.

Al Jezeera

Al Jazeera claimed, “Scientists warn that extreme weather such as heatwaves and storms is becoming more intense as a result of climate change.” 

New York Times

The New York Times said, “Estimating the influence of climate change on any single flood event requires further analysis, but scientists have said that global warming is making storms in many regions more intense. Warmer air holds, and releases, more water.”

“The Mediterranean is also getting hotter, hitting its highest ever recorded temperature in August.” [Emphasis added.]

However, the Times forgot to mention that when this event occurred, the waters near Valencia were only about 1C above normal. 

Colors near Valencia correspond to approximately 1º C. From NOAA’s sea surface temperature anomalies on Oct. 30, 2024.

Then the Times went on to disclaim what they just implied. “Scientists convened by the United Nations have found no consistent trend in the way global warming is affecting extreme rainfall in the Mediterranean region…”

Guardian

The Guardian said, “In recent years, scientists have warned that the waters of the Mediterranean are rapidly warming, climbing as much as 5C above normal.”

What was it when the event occurred, Guardian? And if the relationhip is so strong, why didn’t the rainfall happen when the sea-surface temps were higher?

Reuters

Reuters said, “While experts say it will take time to analyze all the data to determine if this particular [event] was caused by climate change, most agree that an increase in temperature of the Mediterranean and warmer and more humid atmospheric conditions contribute to producing more frequent extreme episodes.” What is the increase, Reuters?

Basically, they’re saying, “The Spanish rains may not be related to climate change, but they  could be…if you don’t look at recent data.”

CNN

CNN said, “Figuring out the precise role climate change played in Spain’s devastating floods will require further analysis, but scientists are clear that global warming, driven by fossil fuel pollution, makes these types of extreme rainfall events more likely and more intense.”

It reads like boilerplate.

The Independent

But some publications were more apocalyptic than others. The Independent took the prize in that department. “Climate crisis ‘worsened all 10 deadliest weather events,” the publication trumpeted.

The Independent claims “The deadliest weather events since 2004 caused more than 570,000 deaths and the ‘fingerprints’ of climate change were present, scientists say.”

We Need a White-Coat Rule for Climate Claims

If this were an advertisement as opposed to a news story, it would probably be illegal in the U.S. I remember a time when television commercials trumpeted equally unsubstantiated claims. 

It led to the passage of the “white-coat” rule by the FTC. It used to be common to dress actors up in white coats to make claims for medical products. “Four out of five doctors recommend…” They were implying that a scientific study actually existed that said 80% of doctors recommended something. But what was the sample size? Five? Which five? And which four?

CBS Cites Source, Then Pulls Story

The publications above rarely cited the name of a scientist. And I only found one news source that actually cited a scientific study. That was CBS, which has since taken their story down. Turns out, their story referred not to a study, but the transcript of a UN press conference about “climate crunch time.” No actual study was linked to the UN press conference story.

Reporting Fuels Skepticism

Climate change may be real. But the reporting around it sure makes me skeptical. If there’s substance to these claims, why such vague boilerplate? Why do so few cite sources, studies and professional credentials?

Last year, I published a story called “Hurricane Lee, Climatology, Data Truncation and the News.” It reviewed an Associated Press story about a hurricane that struck Maine in 2023. It  created 1-2 feet of storm surge and dropped 1-4 inches of rain. But this was a climate change disaster according to AP.

It turned out that the Rockefeller Foundation paid AP to hire 20 climate-change reporters to “infuse climate coverage in all aspects of the news.”

The Rockefeller Foundation admits, “Our focus is on scaling renewable energy.”

We need a white-coat rule for climate claims. No quoting unnamed, uncounted “scientists”! And if they actually exist, give us their credentials. Provide links to their studies in peer-reviewed journals.

We need more facts. Not more fuel for climate hysteria.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/31/24

2620 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.