11/7/24 10 AM – Late-season Hurricane Rafael briefly intensified into a Category 3 storm yesterday as it crossed over Cuba. But since then it has gradually weakened. This morning, Hurricane Hunters measured the sustained wind speed at 100 MPH, making it a Cat 2 storm. Cat 2 ranges from 96 to 110 MPH.
Rafael in center near western tip of Cuba will be blocked from moving north by high pressure descending from Great Plains.Satellite image taken at 10 AM Houston time.
Recent aircraft fixes indicate Rafael is beginning a leftward (west) turn toward Mexico. NHC notes greater than average uncertainty concerning its track. But if Rafael keeps moving it that direction, the storm would move away from Houston and the northern Gulf of Mexico.
The current forward motion estimate is 9 MPH.
Further Weakening Predicted
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts further weakening today as Rafael encounters minor to moderate wind sheer and drier air pushing down from the north. Flight crews have already noted that the eyewall has opened up to the south and southwest.
Rafael’s central pressure has risen slightly to around 971 mb. NHC expects the hurricane to move into an even drier airmass during the next few days. They say that despite the weakening, Rafael should remain a hurricane through the weekend.
Currently, hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. In its latest update, NHC predicts that tropical storm force winds will not likely reach the Houston area. They say the chance of that is less than 5%.
Main Impact Will be High Waves
The main effect felt in southeast Texas will be high waves. At high tide, they could cause minor coastal flooding.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, with Rafael on its projected track, “…large long period swells of 6-10 feet will begin to reach the Texas coast this weekend. When combined with NE winds over the local waters, tides will increase to 3.5-4.0 ft above the barnacle level.”
“This is right on the cusp of coastal flooding thresholds along the upper Texas coast. During high tides into the weekend, some minor coastal flooding may be possible especially on the Gulf facing beaches where elevated wave action will be in place,” said Lindner early this morning.
For those who work offshore, waves could go even higher. At 10:12 AM EST, NHC issued an offshore waters forecast for the Gulf. It says that for the west-central Gulf (91W to 94W longitude and 22N to 26N latitude), seas could reach 16-24 feet in NE to E swells this Saturday.
NHC also says that swells generated by Rafael should spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Late Season Oddity
Lindner noted that it is rare for a hurricane this late in the season to move due west across the entire Gulf of Mexico. The only such similar instance, he says, was hurricane Jeanne from 1980 (Nov 12-15).
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/7/24
2627 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/145523_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2024-11-07 10:40:112024-11-07 18:57:26Rafael Weakens, Turns West
11/6/24 – Voters narrowly approved Harris County Flood Control District’s (HCFCD) Proposition A, a 63% tax increase, by a little more than 2 percent on Election Day. However, Prop A failed dramatically in the underserved Lake Houston Area by almost 13 percent – for a total 15.4 percentage-point swing.
The difference underscores frustration over past promises broken, skepticism about future fairness, and doubt about whether area residents will see any benefit from the tax increase.
The Lake Houston Area, which suffered the highest flooding in the county during Harvey, has consistently been shorted by HCFCD in both capital improvement spending from the flood bond and maintenance dollars. The upper San Jacinto watershed drains an area 50% larger than Harris County through Lake Houston. But quarter after quarter, Lake Houston Area watersheds rank in the bottom half of all flood-control mitigation spending.
And when you rank watersheds by maintenance dollars per stream mile, the area ranks in the bottom third of all watersheds.
Possible Reasons Residents Voted Against
In voting against the tax increase yesterday, it’s not clear whether Lake Houston Area voters rejected the massive tax increase because they felt they would not benefit from it.
They may have also wanted to send a message to the 4:1 Democratic majority on Commissioner’s Court about being treated fairly. That majority has twice reneged on recent promises:
Then they adopted an equity funding allocation formula that allocates flood-bond dollars by the percentage of low-to-moderate income voters in an area.
The formula does not consider threats to infrastructure, flood-related deaths, depth of flooding, flood risk, or damaged structures.
In fact, the County’s current administration has repeatedly failed to publicly release flood-risk data.
Since the passage of the 2018 Flood Bond, HCFCD has invested more than $200 million in the Brays Bayou watershed. Commissioner Rodney Ellis lives in that watershed. Meanwhile, HCFCD has spent a fifth of that in the San Jacinto watershed and one-thirtieth that amount in the Luce Bayou watershed.
To sell the 2022 Road and Parks Bond, Democratic commissioners promised that each of the four Precincts would receive at least a minimum of $220 million. After that bond passed, they allocated $157 million to the lone Republican precinct…which includes half the roads that the county maintains.
Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me…
Lake Houston Area voters were not going to be fooled a third time.
After previous bait-and-switch schemes, I personally wanted to see specific ballot language that guaranteed a fair distribution of funds from the tax. It wasn’t there.
The ballot language in HCFCD’s Prop A did not specify how, when, where, or by what standards the money would be spent. Neither did their road show.
Even though HCFCD pitched the tax as a maintenance tax, nothing in the ballot language limited expenditures to maintenance. In fact, ballot language explicitly included “operations.”
Having been fooled twice, Lake Houston Area voters were not about to be tricked a third time.
People are becoming increasingly skeptical about Harris County’s Democratic leadership.
The 2018 Flood Bond passed by more than 85%; the Lake Houston Area had five of the top eight precincts in the county in terms of turnout.
The drainage portion of the 2022 bond received a 69% majority.
Yesterday’s flood tax vote received only a 52% approval, but only 44% in the Lake Houston Area.
Notice a trend?
An old recipe for success in business says, “Promise what you will deliver and deliver what you promise.” Harris County’s Democratic leadership needs to start delivering what they promise and treating all people fairly…if they ever hope to pass another bond or tax increase.
How I Tallied the Vote
Using the Election Day figures which may change slightly, I tallied up the votes by precinct in the far northeastern part of the county. That included the area:
East of US59 to the county line and north to Montgomery County
Roughly north of the Greens Bayou watershed and slightly south of the Lake Houston Dam.
The area includes Kingwood, Humble, Atascocita, Huffman and Crosby plus unincorporated areas.
Thus, the Proposition lost within this area by 12.76%. But countywide, the proposition passed by 2.7%. That made the total spread 15.46%.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/6/24
2626 Days since Hurricane Harveyand 1 Day since Election Day 2024
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/LHA-Vote-vs-Countywide.jpg?fit=1100%2C425&ssl=14251100adminadmin2024-11-06 16:09:212024-11-06 16:18:39HCFCD Prop A Passes by 2% Countywide, But Fails by 13% in Lake Houston Area
11/05/24 – Rafael morphed from Tropical Depression #18 to a tropical storm in the Caribbean yesterday. And it could become a hurricane by tonight as it moves toward the Gulf of Mexico.
However, there is a low likelihood Rafael will reach Texas because of an approaching cold front from the northwest. The front will create strong wind sheer.
Also, nearshore waters, cooled by recent storms, will be in the upper seventies/lower eighties – the threshold temperature required to sustain tropical cyclones. So, we can expect weakening as Rafael approaches the Gulf Coast.
Approaching cold front from NWshould block Rafael from reaching Texas.
Forecast Track Still Has High Uncertainty
On the forecast track, Rafael should move near western Jamaica early this afternoon, over the Cayman Islands this evening, and over western Cuba on Wednesday. Once in the Gulf of Mexico late tomorrow, the track becomes far less certain as the storm weakens.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “A cold front is expected to sweep off the Texas coast early on Saturday, blocking any potential path toward the Texas coast.” You can see it in the photo above.
The timing of the arrival of the front and the weakening of Rafael will determine the Raphael’s track. As you can see below, models show little agreement at the moment.
Winds Currently at 60 MPH
At 1 PM EST, Rafael had 60 MPH sustained winds and was moving northwest at almost 14 MPH.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts steady to rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours. Rafael should become a hurricane as it passes near the Cayman Islands later today with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba.
Hurricane warnings are in effect for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.
Lindner predicts “Rafael will likely near Category 2 hurricane intensity on approach to Cuba.” Category 1 ranges from 74-95 MPH. Category 2 begins when winds reach 96 MPH.
If Rafael does get close to Houston, we should start to feel its winds late Friday or Saturday.
Rainfall and Surge
NHC predicts rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches. Isolated totals up to 10 inches across higher terrain could lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
The NHC also expects storm surge of 6-9 feet above normal high tides in the Caymans today. Swells generated by Rafael will affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
Stay Aware
Any time a hurricane enters the Gulf, you should keep an eye out. Check the National Hurricane Center website daily until you’re sure the threat has passed.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/5/24
2625 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Rafael-24.11.05.png?fit=1100%2C698&ssl=16981100adminadmin2024-11-05 14:35:262024-11-10 14:39:10TS Rafael Likely to Become Hurricane Tonight Before Weakening in Gulf
11/4/2024 4 PM – The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 4 PM update indicates that tropical depression 18 has gained tropical storm strength and will be named Rafael. The report also indicates that Rafael, presently located in the south central Caribbean would likely move over:
Jamaica late Monday night as a tropical storm
The Cayman Islands by Tuesday as a hurricane
Cuba on Wednesday as a hurricane
The Gulf of Mexico, heading north as a hurricane.
Rafael in center left at 3:40 CSTon 11/4/24
45 MPH Winds at 4PM and Strengthening
As of 4PM today, maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. NHC predicts steady-to-rapid strengthening. The system should become a hurricane on Tuesday.
NHC predicts Rafael will drop 3-6 inches of rain with amounts up to 9 inches locally over The Caymans, Jamaica and Cuba. That much will cause flooding and mudslides, they say.
Storm surge in the Caribbean will be 6-9 feet above normal tide levels. Swells generated by the system should affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Models give the storm a 40 percent chance of a 30 kt speed increase in the next 24 hours and a near 50 percent chance of a 55 kt increase in 48 hours.
Track Over Caribbean Highly Uncertain At This Point
Models closely agree on the track of the storm while in the Caribbean but disagree where it will go once it enters the Gulf. There, model solutions diverge. NHC has low confidence in the Gulf of Mexico forecast track. The wide cone currently stretches from Houston to the Florida Panhandle.
The likely wind field will stretch even wider.
If the storm heads toward Houston, the leading edge of the winds could be felt as early as Friday morning.
Likely to Weaken in Gulf
Environmental factors of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm sea-surface temperatures support intensification. And since the system now has a well organized circulation, NHC has increasing confidence of steady strengthening until the system reaches Cuba or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
In 3 or 4 days, when the system reaches the central Gulf, a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier air, and slightly cooler waters should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist predicts the system’s broad wind field will likely begin to impose along the upper Texas coast by late this week into the weekend. He also predicts that upper level wind shear over the US Gulf coast will likely greatly weaken any tropical system prior to reaching the US coast.
Regardless, check the NHC site often for recent updates and confidence about the track increases.
If Rafael is the last named storm of the season, it would put the total (18) in the range of NHC’s predictions.
Season Now Within Range of Earlier Predictions
Tropical events are rare in the Gulf this time of year but not unheard of. NHC’s climatology page shows many storms starting in the Caribbean during this 10-day period. A subset of those moves into the Gulf while others spin off into the Atlantic.
NHC predicted an above average number of named storms this year. Rafael, at number 18, puts us within the range they predicted.
Eighteen is also above the average number of named storms we receive in a season.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/4/24
2624 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Rafael.jpg?fit=1000%2C680&ssl=16801000adminadmin2024-11-04 16:07:582024-11-04 16:07:59Tropical Storm Raphael Heading North
11/3/24 – The latest round of repairs to the understructure of the Tree Lane Bridge in Kingwood has been completed.
In recent years, flooding, erosion from severe storms, stream migration, and insufficiently mitigated upstream development had jeopardized the integrity of the bridge next to Bear Branch Elementary. Approximately 600 children attend Grades K through 5 at the school and dozens of school buses routinely cross over the bridge every school day.
Before Photos
The four pictures below show the starting point.
Imelda flood almost overtopped the bridgeand backed water up.Photo by Chris Bloch.Looking upstream at downstream side of the bridge. Water pressure created a jetting effect that undermined the support structure and eroded the area downstream. Downcutting exposed water line and utility cable.Closer shot shows the power of moving water. Storm drain outfall (right) was pinched off by debristhat broke away.Stormwater had also eaten away the concrete bed that tied supports together.
After Photos
Compare the next five shots taken on 11/3/24.
Upstream is left. Note how stream meander over time has Bens Branch approaching the bridge from a 45 degree angle now.
Meandering streams can impact bridges in a number of ways, including:
Altering flow characteristics: A meander at the upstream of a bridge can change the flow characteristics at the bridge’s inlet and outlet.
Reducing bridge capacity: A meander can reduce the amount of water a bridge can pass during a flood.
Creating channel instability: Channel instability near a bridge can increase the risk of bridge failure during a hydrologic event.
Meandering streams are characterized by their sinuous, snake-like channels. Meanders move sideways and downstream over time, which can create challenges for maintaining bridges and roads.
However, these repairs should improve safety …. at least for a while.
Looking upstream. Note new storm drain outfalls surrounded by concrete on the left and right.Note how the side slopes change from 45º to 90º about three feet above the bottom of the channel.
The stream bed was previously at where the wall angle changes. The area between the 90º walls represents additional carrying capacity (conveyance) for the channel under the bridge.
Also note, in the picture above, the addition of at least five new rounded piers to increase support for the bridge’s road bed. The old piers are square.
Storm sewer outfall is now at an angle. Same on the opposite side.
According to ChatGPT, “Storm sewer outfalls are often angled when they enter a stream to help manage the flow of water and sediment, reduce erosion, and improve the overall stability of the stream bank.”
Also note in this shot by Chris Bloch how contractors hydromulched slopes and areas disturbed by construction.
Hydromulching should reduce erosion from water flowing over the top of the channel bank.
Thanks to Houston Public Works and the City of Houston for these repairs. I’ll check to see how these improvements work in future storms.
For More Information
For a history of the project and to see additional photos, see these previous posts:
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/20241103-DJI_20241103083715_0140_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2024-11-03 12:06:442024-11-03 18:09:57Before-After Pics of 2024 Tree Lane Bridge Repairs
11/2/24 – Numerous academic studies have found an increase in the number of storms with decreasing forward speeds, i.e., tropical cyclone stalling, when comparing recent decades with earlier periods.
Meteorologists call the distance that tropical cyclones travel in a given amount of time “tropical cyclone translation speed” or TCTS.
They have also found that TCTS is a key factor in determining the damage a tropical cyclone can cause to a community from rainfall, exposure to high winds, flooding and storm surge. That damage totals more than a trillion dollars in the last 40 years with death tolls in the thousands.
There is broad academic agreement on the increase in the number of slow-moving or stalling storms. And they identify the central Gulf Coast as one of the hot spots.
Some studies have also found a correlation between stalling storms and rapid intensification near coastlines, a red flag for emergency managers.
She says that regions experiencing tropical cyclones “will experience greater exposure to some of the most devastating aspects of tropical cyclones such as extreme rainfall, wind speeds, and flooding. Increased exposure to these elements could and will likely translate to a rise in both economic devastation and fatalities.”
21% decrease over land areas in the western North Pacific
16% decrease over land areas affected by North Atlantic tropical cyclones
22% decrease over land areas in the Australian region.
Remember, the more time a storm lingers over any given area, the higher the rainfall accumulations.
Hurricane Harvey a Notable Example
Kossin also notes that “unprecedented rainfall totals associated with the ‘stall’ of Hurricane Harvey13,14,15 over Texas in 2017 provide a notable example of the relationship between regional rainfall amounts and tropical-cyclone translation speed.”
Hurricane Harvey as it approached the Texas coast in 2017
Kossin concluded that the “translation speed of tropical cyclones, particularly over land, is therefore highly relevant when considering potential changes in local rainfall totals.”
The authors found that TCTS influences rainfall accumulation, storm surge, and exposure to high winds. These effects are greatest when storms stall.
Trepanier and her colleagues provide both a definition and climatology of slow-moving or stalling TCs in the North Atlantic from 1900–2020. “A stall is defined as a tropical cyclone (TC) with a track contained in a circular area … with a radius of ≤ 200 km for 72 hours.”
The authors found that of 1,274 North Atlantic tropical cyclones, 191 or 15% met this definition. Of those, 10 stalled more than once. Hurricane Ginger in 1971 stalled the most with four separate stalls.
“Stalling TC locations are clustered in the western Caribbean, the central Gulf Coast, the Bay of Campeche, and near Florida and the Carolinas,” say the authors. “Stalling was most common in October TCs (17.3% of October total) and least common in August (8.2%).”
Their study examined two time periods, 1900-2020 and 1966-2020, and statistically tested for trends in the annual frequency of stalling storms.
The estimated annual frequency of stalls significantly increased from 1966–2020 by 1.5% per year. The cumulative frequency in the number of stalls compared to all storms also increased.
“Stalling storms have a significantly higher frequency of major hurricane status than non-stalling storms. Storms are also more likely to stall near the coast (≤ 200 km). Approximately 40% (n=77) of the stalling TCs experienced a period of rapid intensification, and five did so within 200 km of a coastal zone.”
The authors believe their findings will help emergency managers better prepare for the future. Speaking of that…
Stay Alert
Remember that hurricane season isn’t over until the end of November. The National Hurricane center shows three areas of activity in the Atlantic. They’re giving the closest one in the southwestern Caribbean an 80% chance of formation in the next seven days.
Don’t let your guard down yet.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/2/24
2622 Days since Hurricane Harvey
*Extensive quotes from abstract reproduced with permission of copyright holder.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Harvey-Peak-Intensity.jpg?fit=1500%2C843&ssl=18431500adminadmin2024-11-02 12:27:302024-11-02 13:57:27Impacts of Tropical Cyclone Stalling
10/31/24 – An extreme rainfall event near Valencia in southern Spain on Tuesday this week fueled a spate of hasty climate-change stories. But was that the cause of the flooding?
A year’s worth of rain fell in a day. The area has an average annual rainfall of 17.87 inches. October is their rainiest month with an average 2.91 inches. But according to Fox News, they got:
19.33 inches in 8 hours
13.55 inches in 4 hours
6.5 inches in 1 hour
Harvey Comparison
That’s pretty stout, even by Houston standards, which gets triple the average annual rainfall of Valencia’s mediterranean climate.
In fact, had that rain fallen in the Lake Houston Area during those same time periods, NOAA would have classified it between a 500- and a 1000-year storm on the Atlas 14 scale. See below.
NOAA’s Atlas 14 Precipitation Frequency Estimates for Lake Houston Area
So, you can imagine the impact of that much rain in an area built to engineering standards that anticipate far less.
The death toll has climbed steadily throughout the day as search-and-rescue efforts uncover more fatalities. By 5 PM Houston time, the count had climbed to 158, but dozens still remain missing.
To put that into perspective, Harris County reported 36 deaths from Hurricane Harvey. And Harvey dropped three times the rain, but spread out over four days (August 25-29, 2017).
The major factor contributing to the different death tolls: Valencia is mountainous, and Houston is flat. The steeper geography accelerated the speed of floodwaters that carried away vehicles, bridges and even whole buildings.
Reporting is predictably focused on the gore. As the old saying in the news business goes, “If it bleeds, it leads.”
Climate-Change Hysteria
But there’s another predictable subtext to the stories: climate change. Several factors fuel the climate-change thread:
Readers’ desires for explanations in a less-than-predictable world.
Editors’ desires to provide them.
Academicians’ trying to raise their media profiles and obtain more grants to fund future studies on existential threats.
Poor public understanding of statistics and complex weather models
Private interests pushing agendas by using editorial content as incognito advertising.
Everyone’s desire to capitalize on a crisis to push their individual agendas.
Of several dozen stories from major news organizations that I reviewed for this post, only one (Fox News) refrained from climate-change speculation. It focused mainly on the rainfall amounts. Below is a rundown on several others.
Al Jezeera
Al Jazeera claimed, “Scientists warn that extreme weather such as heatwaves and storms is becoming more intense as a result of climate change.”
New York Times
The New York Times said, “Estimating the influence of climate change on any single flood event requires further analysis, but scientists have said that global warming is making storms in many regions more intense. Warmer air holds, and releases, more water.”
Then the Times went on to disclaim what they just implied. “Scientists convened by the United Nations have found no consistent trend in the way global warming is affecting extreme rainfall in the Mediterranean region…”
Guardian
The Guardian said, “In recent years, scientists have warned that the waters of the Mediterranean are rapidly warming, climbing as much as 5C above normal.”
What was it when the event occurred, Guardian? And if the relationhip is so strong, why didn’t the rainfall happen when the sea-surface temps were higher?
Reuters
Reuters said, “While experts say it will take time to analyze all the data to determine if this particular [event] was caused by climate change, most agree that an increase in temperature of the Mediterranean and warmer and more humid atmospheric conditions contribute to producing more frequent extreme episodes.” What is the increase, Reuters?
Basically, they’re saying, “The Spanish rains may not be related to climate change, but they could be…if you don’t look at recent data.”
CNN
CNN said, “Figuring out the precise role climate change played in Spain’s devastating floods will require further analysis, but scientists are clear that global warming, driven by fossil fuel pollution, makes these types of extreme rainfall events more likely and more intense.”
It reads like boilerplate.
The Independent
But some publications were more apocalyptic than others. The Independent took the prize in that department. “Climate crisis ‘worsened all 10 deadliest weather events,” the publication trumpeted.
The Independent claims “The deadliest weather events since 2004 caused more than 570,000 deaths and the ‘fingerprints’ of climate change were present, scientists say.”
We Need a White-Coat Rule for Climate Claims
If this were an advertisement as opposed to a news story, it would probably be illegal in the U.S. I remember a time when television commercials trumpeted equally unsubstantiated claims.
It led to the passage of the “white-coat” rule by the FTC. It used to be common to dress actors up in white coats to make claims for medical products. “Four out of five doctors recommend…” They were implying that a scientific study actually existed that said 80% of doctors recommended something. But what was the sample size? Five? Which five? And which four?
CBS Cites Source, Then Pulls Story
The publications above rarely cited the name of a scientist. And I only found one news source that actually cited a scientific study. That was CBS, which has since taken their story down. Turns out, their story referred not to a study, but the transcript of a UN press conference about “climate crunch time.” No actual study was linked to the UN press conference story.
Reporting Fuels Skepticism
Climate change may be real. But the reporting around it sure makes me skeptical. If there’s substance to these claims, why such vague boilerplate? Why do so few cite sources, studies and professional credentials?
Last year, I published a story called “Hurricane Lee, Climatology, Data Truncation and the News.” It reviewed an Associated Press story about a hurricane that struck Maine in 2023. It created 1-2 feet of storm surge and dropped 1-4 inches of rain. But this was a climate change disaster according to AP.
The Rockefeller Foundation admits, “Our focus is on scaling renewable energy.”
We need a white-coat rule for climate claims. No quoting unnamed, uncounted “scientists”! And if they actually exist, give us their credentials. Provide links to their studies in peer-reviewed journals.
We need more facts. Not more fuel for climate hysteria.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/31/24
2620 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/SST-Valencia.jpg?fit=1100%2C648&ssl=16481100adminadmin2024-10-31 19:30:322024-11-01 18:07:37Rain in Spain and Sad, Sorry State of Climate-Change Speculation
10/28/24 – After posting about maintenance dollars per square mile in Harris County’s different watersheds, an astute reader suggested I look at maintenance dollars per stream mile.
Why? Stream miles don’t always vary proportionally with square miles and may be a more appropriate metric for maintenance. Certainly, when considering activities, such as channel mowing and clean outs, that makes sense. Especially when you consider “open stream miles,” as distinct from natural channels.
So I ran the numbers. Rankings varied slightly, but overall, maintenance money still goes disproportionately to watersheds with a high percentage of low-to-moderate (LMI) residents. Maybe more so.
Different Metric, Similar Results
Last week, at the start of early voting, I posted about the proposed 63% tax increase called Proposition A. Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) is pitching it as a tax increase dedicated to maintenance, even though the ballot language does not limit it to maintenance.
In last week’s post, I examined maintenance dollars spent per square mile in each watershed. To see what would happen with maintenance dollars per stream mile, I transferred stream miles from the HCFCD website into my spreadsheet and recomputed everything.
While some watersheds rose and others fell in the rankings, watersheds with a majority LMI-population still floated to the top. Even moreso.
Coincidentally, those with the highest concentrations of spending also tend to have Democratic precinct commissioners. And the eight lowest ranking watersheds (with one exception) all fall into the lone Republican-led precinct on Commissioners Court.
Here’s the new table. Gold colored watersheds have a majority of LMI residents.
HCFCD maintenance spending per stream mile since from Hurricane Harvey through 3Q24.Does not include County-wide spending.$89,471 is average in last column.
Will You See Any Benefit from Proposition A?
Why is this important? HCFCD’s proposed tax increase, Proposition A, would raise your flood control taxes by 63%.
Also, HCFCD is trying to increase the percentage of HUD dollars going to LMI-watersheds to 70%, even though HUD only requires 50%.
When looking at maintenanc data, it seems we may already have an Equity Prioritization Index for maintenance dollars – in practice if not in policy.
If you vote for the “maintenance-tax” increase, understand that you may not see as much benefit from it as other parts of the county…if you see any benefit at all. Nothing in the wording of the ballot item guarantees a fair share to each watershed. For instance…
The difference between Halls and Luce Bayous’ maintenance spending per stream mile since Harvey is 28:1!
Data obtained from HCFCD via FOIA request shown in table above.
Compare Watershed Map, Precinct Map and Spending
Most people don’t know the location of all of the watersheds in Harris County. Nor are they familiar with precinct boundaries. So I will reprint both maps below. Compare them, then look up the maintenance dollars for your watershed in the table above.
Harris County Watershed mapMany watersheds cut across precinct boundaries. But P3 is the only precinct with a Republican commissioner.
Past is Prologue
As Shakespeare said in The Tempest, “What’s past is prologue.” Before you vote on Prop A, understand where your money has gone until now. Maintenance dollars often follow capital improvement dollars. And capital improvement spending has also leaned heavily toward LMI areas, since Harvey. So the trend is unlikely to change anytime soon.
Is Harris County Misusing LMI?
All other things being equal, I believe that LMI should be used as a tie-breaker when allocating funds. But all other things are not equal. Some of the watersheds that receive the fewest maintenance dollars have the worst flooding.
Chart showing feet above flood stage of 33 gages of misc. bayous in Harris County during Harvey.
Politics has trumped public safety in Harris County for some time now. I urge you to use your vote to send a message to Commissioners Court if you want to see your fair share of HCFCD spending.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/28/24
2617 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 9 More days until Election Day
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Maintenance-per-Stream-Mile-e1730162628470.png?fit=1100%2C1212&ssl=112121100adminadmin2024-10-28 20:45:332024-10-29 17:49:04Another Way to Look at Prop A: Maintenance Dollars Per Stream Mile
10/27/24 – Meritage Homes of Texas LLC has placed an estimated 5 feet of fill above street level in Phase 1 of its new development in Atascocita. The height has raised concerns among surrounding residents, who fear that runoff from the Meritage site could flood them.
Meritage Site Phase 1 fill bordering Texas Laurel Trail.Height of curb and silt fence = 2 feet.Top of fill is minimum 2.5X higheror 5 feet.Most surrounding homes are elevated about knee high above street level.
It’s hard to see the interior of the site from street level. That has fueled residents’ fears. Virtually all surrounding homes are knee high above street level, not head high, as here.
In February, I received preliminary construction plans and a drainage analysis from Harris County Engineering. But they had numerous problems and were not approved.
So, I can’t say for certain whether the fill is needed or whether it will raise flood risk in surrounding neighborhoods. Similar disparities have flooded homes elsewhere, so residents have cause for worry.
However, it appears that the developer is sloping the land toward a detention basin on the far side of the property (out of sight behind the car and ridge above).
Aerial photos taken today show distinct tiers in the landscape leading down to the detention basin. (See below.) So, runoff should be channeled away from Kings Park Way, Texas Laurel Trail and parts of Pinehurst Trail Drive.
Photo with car above was taken from other side of pipe in background of this photo.
Why So Much Fill?
Meritage, based in Scottsdale, Arizona, began clearing and grading 40.2 acres between Kings River and Pinehurst of Atascocita in February this year. Shortly, thereafter, it began excavating the detention basin for Phase 1, shown below.
Land on left slopes toward detention basin.Photo taken 10/27/24.
Meritage exceeds the minimum. But calculation shows that the amount of fill excavated would have only raised the rest of Phase 1 (the area outside of the detention basin) by approximately 1-2 feet, not 5. Plus multiple residents independently reported seeing trucks bringing fill into the location.
I could find no reference justifying the depth of fill in the preliminary plans supplied by Harris County Engineering.
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Conceptual plans that Meritage shared with surrounding communities earlier this year. They show one detention basin in Phase One and three in Phase 2.
I have requested the final, approved plans from Harris County Engineering, but still have not received them.
Building Codes Also Require 2 Feet Above 500-Year Floodplain
Post-Harvey building codes also require new structures to be built two feet above the 500-year water-surface elevation. But the Meritage development is not close to a mapped floodplain. So that’s not the likely cause for the all the fill.
From FEMA Flood Hazard Layer viewer. Meritage development is about a half mile from the current mapped 500-year floodplain (tan color).
Protecting Neighbors
What should the developer do to ensure surrounding properties are not flooded by runoff?
As a rule, the engineer who prepares civil plans for the development must include drainage area maps and account for all runoff generated by the subdivision. This would include everything up to extreme 100-yr storms.
So, Meritage’s drainage plan should account for all that fill and capture flows before they impact adjacent properties.
In general, the size of the detention basin is a positive thing. But the height of the fill it generated during excavation has the potential to flood surrounding homes – if not handled properly.
More news to follow when/if Harris County reveals the construction plans and drainage analysis.
Excess fill may smother tree roots around perimeter of site.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/27/24
2616 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
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10/26/24 – Say goodbye to the old Northpark Drive.
Construction crews were hard at work all along Northpark Drive on this beautiful fall Saturday afternoon. One group focused on replacing the Northpark median at Russell Palmer Road.
Another focused on breaking up and carrying away pavement from the old westbound lanes.
Old Northpark westbound lanes being demolished west of Sherwin Williams. Photo 10/26/24.
A third group focused on Loop 494 expansion where it crosses Northpark.
Looking N across Northpark at Loop 494 expansion.
All this had Northpark traffic backed up for more than a half mile in each direction.
A Crawl Down Memory Lane
As I inched along in traffic, I felt somewhat nostalgic. I’ve lived in Kingwood for more than 40 years and had offices near or on Northpark for more than half that time.
Google Earth shows Northpark under construction back in 1978. It was a heavily wooded area back then. Google does not even have aerial imagery for the area west of the Diversion Ditch. And few homes existed beyond North Woodland Hills and Sherwood Trails.
Kingwood on 12/31/1977. Woodland Hills curves from bottom to near top of frame just left of center. Northpark intersects it at right angles near the top.
Kingwood Park high school didn’t exist. Neither did Kingwood High. And the Northpark Recreation Area had just been logged.
Northpark Drive served Kingwood well back then. It helped make Kingwood one of the finest master-planned communities in the Houston area, and one of the most unique in the country. To this day, Kingwood’s integration of homes and businesses with nature still astounds newcomers and sets a standard for the nation.
The vision appealed to so many, that now Northpark must expand from four lanes to six, with 10 at the widest point.
Photos Taken on 10/25/24
The gleaming, white, new concrete poured during the last three weeks stretches a half mile to where crews funneled westbound traffic onto the new lanes at the approximate location where they were tearing out the old westbound lanes.
Northpark Drive Expansion, looking west from Russell Palmer Road (bottom left).Lower shot shows concrete poured earlier this week is still drying.Saturday afternoon at 1:30 PM. Shot shows why we need more lanes.Father west, contractors are demolishing the old Westbound road.
This is the general area where a bridge will begin to carry traffic over Loop 494 and the UP Railroad Tracks. In addition to the three lanes of traffic in each direction going over the bridge, we will also have two surface lanes on each side of the bridge…in both directions. One of the lanes will be for left turns and the other for right turns.
Loop 494 Expansion
Contractors are also widening Loop 494 sound of Northpark. The extra lanes on 494 will help prevent traffic coming off Northpark from backing up into the new turn lanes.
Looking S across Northpark at where lanes will widen Loop 494.
The result of all this work: the first all-weather evacuation route from Kingwood. The widened road will also increase mobility, cut commute times, increase safety, and keep Kingwood a premier community for the next generation.
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