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Crenshaw Secures $3.2 Million for Final Engineering of Two Kingwood Flood-Mitigation Projects

U.S. Representative Dan Crenshaw helped secure another $3.2 million dollars for two crucial Kingwood flood-mitigation projects. The money is part of two EPA grants, each for $1.6 million. And they will cover final engineering for the Taylor Gully/Woodridge Village and Kingwood Diversion Ditch flood-mitigation projects.

US Representative Dan Crenshaw at Kingwood Townhall Meeting on October 8 — *U.S. Representative Dan Crenshaw addressing Kingwood Townhall Meeting on October 8, 2024.*

80:20 Matching Grants from EPA

The EPA will pay 80% of each project’s costs and HCFCD will pay the remaining 20% ($400,000 each), according to transmittals to Harris County Commissioners Court for the 10/28/24 meeting.

Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) is asking Commissioners to approve acceptance of the grants, as they obligate the county to spend $800,000 from the 2018 Flood Bond.

Four years ago this week, the Kingwood Area Drainage Analysis identified these two projects as the two most important in the Kingwood Area. The projects will increase conveyance and reduce floodplains. In the meantime, HCFCD completed preliminary engineering plans on each project.

Projects’ Scope, Goals

Anticipated deliverables for both projects include final engineering plans and supporting documents for hydrologic and hydraulic (H&H) analyses.

The scope includes identification of proposed alternatives and recommendation of one for final design, based on a detailed alternative analysis.

The EPA says the plans should lead to:

Conveyance improvements
Budget refinements for future funding assistance requests
Reduction in floodplain impacts during severe weather events
Improved resilience.

Anticipated Taylor Gully Benefits

HCFCD expects the Taylor Gully improvements will reduce riverine flood risk for the residents of Elm Grove, Mills Branch, North Kingwood Forest and Woodstream Village. It could reduce the 100-year floodplain by 116 acres, remove 276 structures from the floodplain, and lower floodwaters for structures still in the floodplain.

Anticipated Diversion Ditch Benefits

HCFCD expects the project will benefit structures in the vicinity of Bens Branch with additional reduction in street flooding. The Flood Control District also expects that this project will reduce the 100-year floodplain by 223 acres, remove up to 69 structures from the floodplain, and lower flood levels for structures still in the floodplain.

The alternative to not applying for grant funding? Flood risks will remain in place or the project will need to be funded locally.

The grants are items #256 and #257 on Tuesday’s Commissioners Court agenda.

Deadlines

Supporting documents do not address deadlines, which could come into play here unless HCFCD makes changes in other grant applications.

The Woodridge Village project includes the creation of two detention basins to reduce floodwater entering Taylor Gully.

However, the Woodridge detention basins are currently part of a disaster relief (DR) application to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. If they remain in the group of DR applications, there may not be time to complete the engineering study and construction before the construction deadline.

Rumor has it that HCFCD may be working on moving the Woodridge Project into the flood-mitigation category which has more time before construction must be completed.

However, I saw no mention of that on next week’s commissioner’s court agenda. Let’s hope they lock that down quickly.

Crenshaw’s Critical Role in Numerous Lake Houston Area Flood Projects

In the meantime, hats off to Congressman Dan Crenshaw. He has consistently succeeded in advocating for Kingwood and Lake Houston Area flood-mitigation projects. Among his other successes:

$8 million for Taylor Gully improvements
$8 million for Lake Houston Dam gates
$10 million for Woodridge Stormwater Improvements
$4 million for Walnut Lane Bridge Improvements over the Diversion Ditch
$12 million for Ford Road Improvements
$900 thousand for I-69 Southbound Frontage Road Drainage Improvements
$3.6 million for Highland, Huffman and Crosby roadway and drainage improvements
$1.12 million for FM1488 area street rehab and drainage improvements
$10 million for Cedar Bayou stormwater detention basin
$1.673 million for Huffman (Forest Manor) drainage improvements

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/25/24

2614 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Relationship Between Wildfires and Floods

10/24/24 – It may seem counterintuitive, but there is a well-recognized relationship between wildfires and floods. What is it?

Simple. Wildfires create conditions that increase the risk of future flooding. Specifically, they affect infiltration; runoff volume and speed; erosion; sedimentation; and more.

How Wildfires Increase Future Flood Risk

Here’s an outline of the the relationship between wildfires and floods:

Loss of Vegetation: Forest fires burn vegetation, which normally helps to hold soil in place and absorb rainfall. Fires leave soil exposed and unprotected.
Water-Repellent Soil: Intense fires can cause soil to repel water. This increases the amount of water running off the surface during rainstorms, rather than soaking into the ground.
Increased Runoff: Without vegetation, rainwater flows more quickly and in greater volumes over the landscape. This runoff can lead to flash flooding, particularly after heavy rains in areas recently affected by wildfires.
Erosion and Sediment: Post-fire floods tend to carry a lot of sediment and debris since the soil is no longer stabilized by plant roots. This sediment can settle downstream, reduce the carrying capacity of streams and worsen flooding.

In short, forest fires can create conditions that increase the likelihood of flooding and make flood events more severe in the affected areas. This relationship is particularly common in the period immediately following a wildfire when the landscape is most vulnerable to erosion and rapid runoff.

What the Experts Says

According to FEMA, “While some floods develop over time, flash floods—particularly common after wildfires—can occur within minutes after the onset of a rainstorm. Even areas that are not traditionally flood-prone are at risk, due to changes to the landscape caused by fire. … Flood risk remains significantly higher until vegetation is restored – up to 5 years after a wildfire.”

The National Weather Service says, “Locations that are downhill and downstream from burned areas are highly susceptible to Flash Flooding and Debris Flows.”

The Army Corps of Engineers also warns of the relationship between vegetation loss and flash flooding. They say the risk of debris flows lasts two to five years.

The Corps, FEMA and Weather Service all recommend purchasing flood insurance within their discussions of wildfires.

Current Conditions in Southeast Texas: Growing Fire Risk

So how bad are current conditions?

I already have received an email from one reader who was seriously injured fighting a pasture fire in Liberty County.

No weather monitoring site in southeast Texas has recorded ANY rainfall for the month of October. “That’s impressive because October is usually our second wettest month behind May,” says Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist.

October 2024 Rainfall and Departures from Normal

You can see the lack of recent rain in the statistics below:

College Station: 0.00, -3.49
BUSH IAH: 0.00, -3.82
Hobby: 0.00, -4.12
Galveston: 0.00, -3.66
Conroe: 0.00, -3.67
Sugarland: 0.00, -3.29

Drought Worsening

Moderate drought now covers more than half of Texas and severe drought covers more than a quarter of the state. All of Harris and surrounding counties are in moderate or severe drought, except for those along the coast.

Says Lindner, “While the recent dryness has been relatively short thus far compared to other dry spells, it has been intense – accompanied by much warmer than normal late summer and early fall temperatures. This has quickly resulted in drought degradation across the entire region and vegetation health quickly declining.”

Fire Activity Increasing

“The result has also been an increase in wildland fire activity in recent weeks – especially when drier air masses move over the region along with gusty winds,” Lindner continued.

“As the area moves deeper into the fall and winter months, more frequent and stronger cold fronts will bring stronger winds and much drier air masses across the area. Without any significant wetting rainfall, fire-weather conditions will quickly elevate,” he said.

Wildfire Risk Soaring

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KDBI) values indicate wildland fire risk. Currently, they show significant risk across the area. The scale is from 0 (completely saturated) to 800 (completely void of moisture to 8 inches deep). Values above 650 indicate an increased risk of wildland fire and values over 700 indicate a significant risk.

Current average KBDI values are:

Austin: 735
Brazoria: 630
Brazos: 744
Chambers: 693
Colorado: 705
Fort Bend: 706
Galveston: 620
Grimes: 730
Harris: 727
Liberty: 739
Matagorda: 615
Montgomery: 715
San Jacinto: 717
Walker: 691
Washington: 738
Wharton: 689

Looking Ahead: Higher than Average Temps/Lower Than Normal Rainfall

We are currently heading into La Niña conditions. “Such global oscillations tend to support southern plains drought,” says Lindner.

The National Weather Service indicates drought development and persistence across all of Texas into early 2025. See below:

*Source: National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center*

Be Careful with Outdoor Burning

Beryl left a lot of dead vegetative debris lying around last summer. It’s now turning into fuel. So be extremely careful with outdoor fires. It’s probably best not to burn those leaves you rake up this fall.

The fire you prevent now could help prevent flooding next spring.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/24/24

2613 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Northpark Crossover at Russell Palmer Closed Friday through Sunday

10/23/24 – Starting Friday 10/25/24 at 8 PM through Monday 10/28/24 at 5AM, contractors will close the Northpark crossover at Russell Palmer Road to pour new concrete in the median. See location of the X in the diagram below.

That means northbound traffic on Russell Palmer will not be able to turn west (left) toward 59. Nor will westbound traffic on Northpark be able to turn south onto Russell Palmer. In each case, traffic must detour by looping around to another open crossover then doubling back.

Eastbound and westbound traffic on Northpark drive will not be affected.

In my 10/11 post on Northpark expansion, I implied that Northpark traffic would be closed also. That was a mistake. It will remain open in both directions.

*Only area within boundaries of red box will be closed.* *Picture taken on 10/11 for previous post.*

To minimize inconvenience caused by the crossover closure, crews will place rebar and pour concrete directly on compacted dirt, rather than putting asphalt down first.

Utility Conflicts Almost Eliminated

Elsewhere on Northpark, CenterPoint was working to remove the last of its power poles. That means the last of the utility obstacles should soon be out of the way for road construction crews.

Exact Dates of Total Closure, Bridge Construction Still Not Determined

Work is expected to begin on the frontage roads over the UPRR tacks in January. Motorists can expect a 3-day closure of Northpark Drive in either January or February as UPRR crews remove and replace more than 200 feet of railroad tracks.

The exact date of the closure depends on how quickly the railroad crew completes other work. They will also be reconstructing the crossing farther north on the tracks at Knox road. Union Pacific is trying to schedule both projects back to back.

Construction on the bridge structure itself is still a year away.

Phase-2 Preparations Underway

TxDOT approved the proposed schematics for Phase 2 earlier this year. Phase 2 will:

Expand Northpark Drive from Russell Palmer Road to east of Woodland Hills Drive from four to six lanes
Replace both bridges at the Kingwood Diversion Ditch
Replace the roadway crossing at Ben’s Branch.
Add a 90-acre foot detention basin for more stormwater mitigation and to control flow into the Diversion Ditch.

Now, that TxDOT has approved schematics for Phase 2, LHRA is conducting land surveys, obtaining rights of entry, and preparing documents needed to acquire roadway right-of-way and drainage easements.

Ralph De Leon, TIRZ manager, explained the primary reason for extending the extra lanes east past Woodland Hills. It has to do with drainage, specifically eliminating a huge depression in the roadbed. The road dips from west of the Diversion Ditch almost to Woodland Hills. He said engineers want to establish a consistent elevation between high points.

The purpose of the expansion project is to accommodate growth and create an all-weather evacuation route for 78,000 Kingwood residents.

“All the work we’re doing in Phase 1 would do no good in an evacuation if people couldn’t get to it,” he said.

*Red X on left at Bens Branch corresponds to X in elevation profile on right. Source: USGS National Map Viewer.*

Construction of Phase 2, however, is still several years away.

For More Information

Consult the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority project pages. Or see these ReduceFlooding posts:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/23/24

2612 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Radical English Experiment Reduces Flooding

10/22/24 – The New York Times ran a story today about a radical English experiment to reduce flooding. The gist: giving land back to the sea by turning farm land into salt marsh.

The subhead claims, “When a huge tract of land on the Somerset coast was deliberately flooded, the project was slammed as ‘ridiculous’ by a local lawmaker. But the results have been transformative.”

The experiment is ten years old this year. And the area had record rains. Even after they received a month’s worth of rain in a day in September, no one flooded. Experts believe that England’s traditional defenses – seawalls, barriers and sandbanks – will be insufficient to hold back the sea in the face of climate change.

History of Project

The radical English experiment cost about $20 million pounds ($26 million). “Rather than attempting to resist the sea, the land was given back to it,” says author Rory Smith. He claims that, “A decade on, its results might offer a blueprint for how some parts of Britain — and the rest of the world — might adapt to the reality of climate change.”

“The idea was to turn what had been farmland into salt marsh, an ancient ecosystem that soaks up water as the tide comes in and releases it as the sea retreats.”

The project encountered considerable pushback from displaced farmers. One called it “environmental vandalism.” And a member of parliament called it an “extravagant, ridiculous scheme.”

The NYT points out that since 1860, Britain has lost 85 percent of its salt marshes, according to the U.K. Center for Ecology and Hydrology, a research institute. The article continues, “Returning Steart [the area where the experiment took place] to swampy wilderness was, in part, an acknowledgment that the overdevelopment of coastal land had made flooding more likely, not less.”

Benefits of Experiment

The return to nature began in 2014. After digging a series of canals that look like the veins of a leaf, they let water flow in. It wasn’t pretty at first. But ten years later, “The marsh acts as a natural and hugely effective bulwark against flooding, absorbing and slowing tides before they can encroach inland,” says the leader of a local conservation group.

The man-made swamp has become a haven for wildlife and birdwatching. It is now a source of immense local pride. Cows can even graze within it, eating natural grasses, which allows farmers to sell their leaner beef at a premium. Scientists have even documented the ability of the swamp to act as a carbon sink.

The alliance between the conservationists and the local population has helped to overcome initial objections to the project, which some describe as “rewilding.”

Could It Work Here?

The conservationists in charge of the radical English experiment believe it has great applicability for America and Australia.

Hurricane Ike devastated developed areas along the Bolivar Peninsula in 2008 that still haven’t fully recovered today. But the swamps behind them recovered immediately. Areas still flooded, but flood damage was greatly reduced.

The Times story reminded me of exploring salt marshes near High Island and Anahuac with my Nikon. I’m constantly reminded of the beauty of nature and how the marshes buffer us from flooding. Even more, I’m dazzled by the abundant wildlife.

I took the shot below in December several years ago during the fall migration near Anahuac National Wildlife Refuge. The geese were so thick you could barely see the ground. Or the sky!

*Tens of thousands of snow geese taking wing over salt marsh near Anahuac National Wildlife Refuge.*

Sometimes the solution may not be to fight nature, but to enjoy it more.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/22/24

2611 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Before You Vote, Know Where HCFCD Maintenance Dollars Go

Correction 10/28/24 – The table showing maintenance dollars/square mile has been updated with maintenance dollars/stream miles, a more appropriate metric for maintenance dollars.

10/21/24 – Today is the first day of early voting. Knowing where maintenance dollars go may affect how you vote on Harris County Flood Control District’s (HCFCD) proposed 63% maintenance-tax increase.

Before you vote, you should know that maintenance dollars spent per stream mile in different watersheds vary by 28:1. And that the San Jacinto, Spring Creek, Little Cypress Creek, Luce Bayou and Cedar Bayou watersheds are among those that receive the fewest maintenance dollars per stream mile. They all fall in the bottom third.

Why HCFCD Requested Tax Increase

HCFCD says it needs the additional tax revenue because:

Money available for maintenance has remained flat for many years, while…
Assets needing maintenance have grown, especially since the 2018 flood bond.

Assets include flood-mitigation features, such as stormwater detention basins and channels. HCFCD has built many new ones with capital improvement funds from the bond.

What They Don’t Tell You in Flood-Tax Meetings

HCFCD has been holding in-person and virtual meetings throughout the county to explain the need for its proposed tax increase. But the one I attended did not offer any explanations for the magnitude of the tax increase.

Neither could/would HCFCD personnel answer my questions about the allocation of tax dollars among watersheds.

How, when, where, why, and on what basis will the new tax revenue be spent? My fear: another Equity Prioritization Framework for maintenance-tax dollars.

Where Money is Already Going

When looking at the data, it seems we may already have an equity prioritization framework for maintenance dollars – in practice if not in policy. To date, flood-bond dollars have gone disproportionately to watersheds where more than 50% of residents qualify as low-to-moderate income (LMI). See the eight highlighted in gold below.

*Maintenance $/stream mile from Hurricane Harvey through 3Q24. Gold watersheds have majority LMI population.*

The San Jacinto River watershed, Spring Creek, Little Cypress Creek, Cedar Bayou and Luce Bayou all fall predominantly within the Republican-led Precinct 3. And they all fall to the bottom of the list.

I suspect the highlighted watersheds above float higher because, as LMI-majority watersheds, they have received a disproportionate share of capital-improvement spending.

As a generalization, maintenance money follows capital-improvement spending. So, we can probably expect to see a continuation of that trend.

Other Factors Affecting Maintenance Spending

But ranking maintenance allocations is not as clearcut as ranking overall spending. In addition to watershed size, everal other factors also influence the need for maintenance. They include:

Degree of development (Undeveloped areas require less maintenance.)
Age of assets (New assets require less maintenance than older ones.)
Severity of flooding (Larger floods erode more.)
Type of asset (Is it a concrete channel or grass-lined? Concrete costs more to repair.)
Size of watershed. (Larger watersheds convey more water, creating greater damage/erosion.)

Political factors also likely influence the allocation of dollars. For instance:

Commissioner Rodney Ellis lives in the Brays Bayou watershed.
Right now, HCFCD is juggling projects to raise the LMI percentage of HUD applications totaling $825 million. HUD requires 50%. HCFCD is trying to get the percentage to 70%.

All told, if you vote for the maintenance-tax increase, understand that you may not see as much benefit from it as other parts of the county…if you see any benefit at all. Nothing in the wording of the ballot item guarantees a fair share to each watershed.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/21/2024 and updated 10/28/24

2610 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Details of HCFCD Spending in San Jacinto Watershed Since Harvey

10/20/24 – My latest FOIA request revealed some surprising details about Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) spending in the San Jacinto Watershed and how it contrasts to the Brays Bayou Watershed.

For several years, I have tracked HCFCD spending by watershed and project phase on a quarterly basis. I have discovered tremendous disparities in flood mitigation funding across the county.

From high to low, the ratio varies by more than 1000:1. The types of activities also vary greatly from watershed to watershed. The Brays and San Jacinto Watersheds make illuminating examples.

San Jacinto Watershed Vs. Brays

Out of the county’s 23 watersheds, the San Jacinto ranks in the bottom half of total funding since Harvey. Despite being the county’s largest watershed and having the most severe flooding, it comes in at #13 in terms of dollars received.

The San Jacinto Watershed received approximately $40 million between Harvey and the end of the third quarter in 2024. That’s less than 2% of the total $2.03 billion HCFCD has spent since Harvey.

Compare that to Brays Bayou where Commissioner Rodney Ellis lives.

Brays has received 10% of all the money spent by HCFCD since Harvey – $202.4 million out of $2.03 billion. That’s more than five times as much as the San Jacinto.

The totals show an impressive difference. But they don’t tell the whole story.

71% of Brays spending has gone into construction activities that actually reduce flood risk.

Meanwhile, the San Jacinto watershed received a fifth as much in total dollars. And one tenth as much went into construction that actually reduces flooding.
Data from FOIA Request

Details of San Jacinto Spending: Where Money Went

Drilling down even deeper into the data, I discovered that virtually all of the San Jacinto “construction” spending was classified as maintenance. In other words, the construction dollars went toward repairing the insufficient infrastructure that resulted in the county’s worst flooding. Very little went toward construction of new capital improvement projects.

On a sad note, HCFCD reported spending $230 on true capital-improvement construction in the San Jacinto Watershed. That’s not a typo. We’re not talking about thousands or millions. We’re talking about just a little more money than the default withdrawal from most ATMs.

That was for the Excavation and Removal (E&R) Project on the Woodridge Village property. HCFCD later cancelled the E&R project when it applied for HUD grants for Woodridge and Taylor Gully improvements.

E&R contracts give contractors the right to sell dirt excavated from detention basins in exchange for a nominal fee, usually $1,000. They make their money, not from HCFCD, but from developers, homebuilders and road builders who buy the dirt at market rates.

The single largest expenditure in the San Jacinto Watershed since Harvey was for the purchase of the Woodridge Village property itself for $13,994,735.

*Spike in middle of graph is purchase of Woodridge property. Other spike in 2022 was dredging*.

Here’s a breakdown of $40 million in spending against all significant projects.

*Spending in San Jacinto Watershed Since Harvey*	*Amount 17Q3 – 24-Q3*
Purchase of Woodridge Village	$13,994,735
Unspecified Maintenance Projects, most classified as construction	$8,303,416
County’s Share of Dredging (East and West Forks)	$7,278,626
SJRA’s San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Plan	$2,777,980
Bens Branch Conveyance Improvements (maint)	$1,788,949
Panther Creek Feasibility Study	$1,744,343
Kingwood Diversion Ditch Preliminary Engineering	$872,759
Baytown Storm Sewer Improvements Design Study	$810,869
Taylor Gully Preliminary Engingeering Study	$584,179
Atascocita Preliminary Flood Reduction Study	$541,186
Drainage Study for Watersheds East of Lake Houston	$298,534
Deer Park Project(s)/Design and Right of Way	$213,089
SJRA’s River Basin Sedimentation Study	$162,500
Indian Shores Partnership Project	$130,000
SJRA’s San Trap Location Study	$128,820
Redesign of Failed Sheet Pile Wall/Location Not Specified)	$118,799
Boggy Gully Study	$42,280
Lake Houston Gates Study	$23,547
USACE Support on West Fork Dredging	$9,265

$7.2 million of the HCFCD money spent in the San Jacinto Watershed since Harvey has gone toward studies. That’s almost twice as much as the $3.7 million spent on studies in the Brays Watershed during the same period.

The engineering studies are necessary to qualify for grants which might eventually lead to construction projects that mitigate flooding. But since the studies exist only on paper, they don’t actually reduce any flooding. At least, not until they qualify the area for funding.

For instance, none of the studies that HCFCD partnered with the SJRA on (River Basin Master Drainage Study, Sedimentation, Sand Traps) have advanced to the construction phase yet.

Less than $2 Million Per Quarter with Two Exceptions

Here’s how San Jacinto Watershed funding breaks down over time.

*Tall blip in middle contains Woodridge purchase. Blip in Q3 22 includes county’s share of dredging*.

The thing that chaps me most about all this is Commissioner Rodney Ellis continually harping about how Kingwood gets all the money. He has convinced low-income people throughout the county that areas with high-dollar homes get all the money. The opposite is true according to the data.

Meanwhile, Ellis is pushing funding from just about everywhere else into the watershed where he lives.

Such heavy-handed politics make me skeptical about the 63% tax increase being proposed by HCFCD.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/20/2024

2609 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Nadine and Oscar Form within Hours of Each Other

10/19/24 – Tropical Storm Nadine and Hurricane Oscar formed within hours of each other in the last 24 hours. Neither is a threat to Texas. But they put the Atlantic Basin over the average number of named storms it gets during hurricane season and near the low end of predictions made earlier this year.

*Nadine (left) and Oscar (right) as of 2 PM CDT*

Tropical Storm Nadine

Nadine formed near the Mexican coastline and will quickly move inland near the border with Belize. Nadine’s chances of formation had steadily increased over the last few days.

Hurricane Oscar

Oscar was a different story. Yesterday morning, the disorganized area of showers had only a 20% chance of formation. By this afternoon, it had turned into a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph hour winds. The small hurricane could strengthen some more today before weakening and dissipating next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward from Oscar up to 5 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles. At 2 PM, the eye was 3 miles wide.

Oscar could dump up to six inches of rain on Cuba, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas.

The National Hurricane Center predicts no additional tropical developments in the next seven days.

Season To Date

Earlier this year, forecasters predicted an extremely active hurricane season. These two storms – numbers 14 and 15 – put the season total near the low end of the range predicted by the NHC in May.

The table below shows the average number of storms in the Atlantic basin during the last three decades.

So far in the Atlantic Basin this year, we’ve had:

15 named storms
6 hurricanes (Debby, Ernesto, Francine, Isaac, Leslie, Oscar)
4 major hurricanes (Beryl, Helene, Kirk and Milton)

And we still have six more weeks left in the season.

For an excellent recap of the season, including each storm within it, see the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Page on Wikipedia. It contains narratives on each storm plus statistical tables.

The next storms, if they form, will be:

Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/19/24

2608 Days since Hurricane Harvey

24% Ahead of Rainfall for Year, Houston Slips into Drought

10/18/24 – According to the US Drought Monitor, Houston has officially slipped into a moderate drought.

Talk about wacky weather. According to the National Weather Service, the Houston area has already recorded its average annual rainfall – with two and a half months left in the year.

*Rainfall Year-to-Date for Houston Bush Intercontinental Airport*

NOAA shows that normally we receive 41.52 inches by October 18 in an average year. But so far this year, at IAH, the official recording station, we have received 51.2 inches.

*From NWS NowData. The big jump in the blue line reflects Hurricane Harvey in 2017.*

So, we are 24% ahead of the average annual rainfall for this date … and in drought. But it gets even more wacky.

I live in the center of Kingwood just a few miles northeast of the airport. And my rain gage has recorded 64.58 inches so far. That’s 54% ahead of the average YTD rainfall.

Looking Ahead

The NWS Climate Prediction Center says that a weak La Niña has a 60% chance to emerge by November and is expected to persist through January-March 2025.

What does that mean for the Houston area?

Effect of La Niña on Texas Weather in Fall and Winter

According to ChatGPT, La Niña has significant impacts on Texas weather, especially during the fall and winter seasons. Here’s how La Niña typically affects Texas:

1. Warmer-than-Average Temperatures

Fall and Winter in Texas during a La Niña event tend to be warmer than usual, especially in southern and central Texas. The jet stream tends to shift northward, allowing more warm air to persist over the state. This can lead to milder winters, especially compared to neutral or El Niño conditions.

2. Drier-than-Average Conditions

La Niña often brings below-average rainfall to Texas, particularly in the southern and central regions. This is due to the altered jet stream pattern, which pushes storm tracks farther north, leaving Texas and much of the southern U.S. drier than normal. As a result, drought conditions can develop or worsen, especially in the winter months.

3. Increased Risk of Drought

Because La Niña tends to cause drier-than-average conditions, it can exacerbate drought conditions. This is particularly concerning for Texas, which is prone to periodic droughts. Reduced winter rainfall means less moisture in the soil and reservoirs, affecting agriculture, water supply, and wildfire risks.

4. Wildfire Risk

With drier conditions and warmer-than-average temperatures, the risk of wildfires tends to increase during La Niña winters. This is especially the case in late fall and early winter when vegetation can become dry and more susceptible to fires.

What a wild ride this year has been!!! In the first half of the year, we thought we would drown. Now we could dry up and blow away.

Of course, all averages include extremes. By definition, they mask variation. And this year, they could mask a lot.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/18/24

2607 Days since Hurricane Harvey

HCFCD Explains Scope of Maintenance Needs, Proposition A

10/17/24 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) held a meeting Wednesday night at the Kingwood Community Center to explain the scope of its maintenance activities. The exhibits were designed to raise awareness of the types of things HCFCD does in order to help educate the public in advance of the vote on HCFCD’s Proposition A.

Proposition A would increase HCFCD taxes 63 percent.

Not discussed at the meeting:

A basis for the percentage increase in the tax rate
Justification for the amount of the tax increase, i.e., linking objectives/tasks to cost estimates and budgets
How, where or when the additional money would be deployed
Prioritization of maintenance projects, i.e., the Equity Prioritization Framework for Flood Bond Projects.

For those who couldn’t make the meeting, I’ll provide a brief recap of the exhibits below. There was no formal presentation. Residents walked from table to table and asked the staff questions about the oversized poster exhibits shown below. Some of the type gets pretty small when reproduced on a cell phone or tablet, so I’ll provide some context.

At the end, I will also provide some feedback from attendees.

What Does Proposition A Include?

The first poster talked about the proposed tax increase. The small type explains the before and after tax rates if Prop A is approved. The HCFCD tax RATE would go from 3.316 cents to 4.897 cents per $100 of assessed valuation. That’s a 57% increase in the rate. What they don’t show is an average 6% increase in valuations this year, bringing the total increase in your tax BILL up to 63%. The rate is applied to a larger base.

*The small type says that the average homeowner would see an increase of $60/year. Altogether, the new tax would generate $100 million of additional revenue for HCFCD.*

Here is the language you will find on your ballot. Notice that it says the new tax would go toward “operating and maintaining the District’s flood-risk-reduction infrastructure.”

The reference to operations would let the $100 million be spent on virtually anything…like the $3 million Commissioners Court approved last week to hire a consulting firm to write the county’s resilience plan.

Scope of Maintenance Activities

The rest of the posters discussed different types of maintenance.

*Examples of preventative maintenance include mowing and debris removal.*

They vary throughout the year by season. This chart shows seasonal shifts in emphasis. For instance, they plant trees in the fall and winter.

*Channels in the Kingwood area that have received maintenance help since Harvey.*

*Forward-looking maintenance includes things like tree planting; selective clearing; and planting of native grasses and wildflowers.*

HCFCD also does major maintenance projects that border on capital improvement projects.

*Examples include sediment removal from channels; channel sidewall replacement; repairs to concrete lining and outfalls; and erosion repairs.*

See before-and-after examples below.

Service Requests

The pie-chart below shows the major types of service requests that members of the public request. The top categories are:

Debris 29%
Ponding Water 13%
Tree 12%
Unauthorized use 11%
Erosion 10%
Vegetation Overgrowth 9%

*Note also how the level of service requests has remained relatively constant for the last four years. There is less than 5% variation*.

This heat map shows where the most service requests came from in the county.

*Precinct 4 is the pinkish color at the top of the map.*

Beryl and the Derecho

The biggest effort in recent years has been debris removal following Hurricane Beryl and the derecho.

*HCFCD/FEMA contractors have removed 40,000 tons (80 million pounds) of debris so far this year.*

Mixed Feedback/Support

Dee Price, KSA President, was positive. She said, “After attending the Harris County Flood Control District’s public meeting on Proposition A, it is my assessment that Harris County Flood Control District needs additional funds to maintain all of the infrastructure for which it is responsible. It is my opinion that Kingwood would benefit if HCFCD receives additional funds that would enable them to maintain the drainage infrastructure in Kingwood.”

Jeff Miller, an Elm Grove resident who lives near Taylor Gully, said, “HCFCD freely admitted that their performance has been falling short for a long time but that with more funding, they can catch up. I plan to vote for Prop A, but based on our experience with the 2018 flood bond, I’m doing so reluctantly.”

I was skeptical based on previous experiences with the 2018 Flood Bond and 2022 Bond. County commissioners changed those deals after voters approved them. “The same thing could happen with Prop A and the Lake Houston Area could wind up funding projects everywhere but here.”

Turnout for the meeting was approximately 40 people – very low compared to the 13,000 that flooded in the Lake Houston Area in recent years.

Only one thing is certain – either way, you have the power to send a message with your vote.

Two Additional Meetings

HCFCD has scheduled two additional Zoom meetings for people who couldn’t attend in person.

Thursday, October 24 | 12:00 – 1:00 p.m
Wednesday, October 30 | 12:00 – 1:00 p.m.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/17/24

2606 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Flood Control Tax Meeting Tonight at Kingwood Community Center, 6 PM

10/16/24 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) and Precinct 3 will host a tax meeting at the Kingwood Community Center tonight starting at 6 PM. The purpose: discuss the thinking behind HCFCD’s request for what amounts to a 63% increase in taxes to cover operations and maintenance.

See details below.

Ask Tough Questions

Please come to the tax meeting. The community needs your support.

The 63% increase to tax bills will result from a 56% increase in the tax rate applied to a 7% increase in property valuations.

Is it worth it? Whether you see any benefit from the money depends on where you live in the county. Up here in the northeastern part, we’ve been fooled twice already.

When we were promised the 2018 flood bond would take care of the worst flooding first. And when we were told each of the four precincts would get at least $220 million from the 2022 bond. Commissioners Ellis and Garcia along with County Judge Hidalgo changed each deal after the fact.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

So come prepared to ask tough questions. Like:

Why haven’t we seen any benefit from the flood bond after six years?
Why does HCFCD need a 63% increase when it has trouble spending the money it already has?
Is HCFCD capable of administering a larger budget in a timely way?
Is there any guarantee the money will be spent here?
If any money will be spent here, when?
Why is the ballot language so vague and open ended?
Will commissioners divert the tax proceeds to other purposes?
Can you trust commissioners not to change the deal after the vote as they did with the 2022 bond?
If capital improvement money is largely going elsewhere, shouldn’t we assume that maintenance money will follow it?
Why does the HCFCD website no longer list active projects or show where they are?

The Robin Hood Plan

Six years in, money from the 2018 flood bond has not been distributed fairly across the county. The far northeastern part of the county has been severely punished for its Republican leanings, despite having some of the worst flooding in the county.

worst first — *Chart showing feet above flood stage of 33 gages of misc. bayous in Harris County during Harvey.* *The four gages on the left all feed into Lake Houston*

Harris County has 23 watersheds. Since Hurricane Harvey:

The top 11 have received $1.2 billion in flood mitigation funding.
The bottom 11 have received $172 million.

The average difference? 7X. Here’s what that looks like.

Spending by Watershed since Harvey — *Through third quarter 2024. Source: HCFCD data obtained via a FOIA request.*

The San Jacinto River, Luce Bayou and Jackson Bayou watersheds all fall into the bottom 11.

So now that we’ve funneled more than a billion dollars worth of capital improvement projects into low-income areas, who do you think will have the greatest maintenance needs?

I’m going to see what they say tonight at the tax meeting before I make any recommendations. Hope to see you there.

Bring a neighbor. Pack the room.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/16/2024

2605 Days since Hurricane Harvey