Rafael Fades into History Books

11/10/24 – Rafael, the up/down, on/off, east/west, north/south storm that defied prediction while stalking the Caribbean and Gulf for the past week, has lost its punch.

Rafael, a Rarity

Rafael reached Category 3 hurricane strength twice on its sojourn. By 9AM this morning, it was barely a tropical storm. And the National Hurricane Center believes it could turn into a remnant low…without making landfall in the U.S. or Mexico.

According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “It is fairly rare for a tropical system in the Gulf to dissipate without reaching land somewhere, but it does happen. The last time something like this occurred this time of year was Hurricane Jeanne in 1980 (Nov 12-15).”

So Rafael will be the second in 45 years!

Rafael’s track across the Gulf of Mexico looked like a loop-de-loop on a roller coaster ride. A Facebook posted proclaimed, “someone should give that storm a DUI.”

Rafael Now a Post Tropical Depression

NHC posted this morning that it expected Rafael to become a post-tropical depression later tonight or tomorrow. It happened by 3 PM Houston CST when winds were measured at 35MPH. And with that, NHC issued its last advisory on Rafael.

“Surface circulation has become poorly defined and very elongated in the north-south direction. Since Rafael does not possess a well-defined center or organized convection, it no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. This will be the final NHC advisory on Rafael,” said NHC.

Will Not Reform Given Amount of Dry Air

This isn’t just a case of a storm stalling while it gathers strength. Lindner says, “Given the large amounts of dry air in place over the Gulf, there is little hope for any regeneration once the system becomes a remnant low later today or Monday.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/10/24

2630 Days since Hurricane Harvey