Rafael Weakens, Turns West
11/7/24 10 AM – Late-season Hurricane Rafael briefly intensified into a Category 3 storm yesterday as it crossed over Cuba. But since then it has gradually weakened. This morning, Hurricane Hunters measured the sustained wind speed at 100 MPH, making it a Cat 2 storm. Cat 2 ranges from 96 to 110 MPH.
Recent aircraft fixes indicate Rafael is beginning a leftward (west) turn toward Mexico. NHC notes greater than average uncertainty concerning its track. But if Rafael keeps moving it that direction, the storm would move away from Houston and the northern Gulf of Mexico.
The current forward motion estimate is 9 MPH.
Further Weakening Predicted
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts further weakening today as Rafael encounters minor to moderate wind sheer and drier air pushing down from the north. Flight crews have already noted that the eyewall has opened up to the south and southwest.
Rafael’s central pressure has risen slightly to around 971 mb. NHC expects the hurricane to move into an even drier airmass during the next few days. They say that despite the weakening, Rafael should remain a hurricane through the weekend.
Currently, hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. In its latest update, NHC predicts that tropical storm force winds will not likely reach the Houston area. They say the chance of that is less than 5%.
Main Impact Will be High Waves
The main effect felt in southeast Texas will be high waves. At high tide, they could cause minor coastal flooding.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, with Rafael on its projected track, “…large long period swells of 6-10 feet will begin to reach the Texas coast this weekend. When combined with NE winds over the local waters, tides will increase to 3.5-4.0 ft above the barnacle level.”
“This is right on the cusp of coastal flooding thresholds along the upper Texas coast. During high tides into the weekend, some minor coastal flooding may be possible especially on the Gulf facing beaches where elevated wave action will be in place,” said Lindner early this morning.
For those who work offshore, waves could go even higher. At 10:12 AM EST, NHC issued an offshore waters forecast for the Gulf. It says that for the west-central Gulf (91W to 94W longitude and 22N to 26N latitude), seas could reach 16-24 feet in NE to E swells this Saturday.
NHC also says that swells generated by Rafael should spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Late Season Oddity
Lindner noted that it is rare for a hurricane this late in the season to move due west across the entire Gulf of Mexico. The only such similar instance, he says, was hurricane Jeanne from 1980 (Nov 12-15).
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/7/24
2627 Days since Hurricane Harvey
