TS Helene Pushing North, Intensifying, Expanding

9/24/24 at 1 PM – This morning, Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 became Tropical Storm Helene when satellite images and Hurricane Hunter aircraft data noted a well-defined center of circulation and sustained winds of 45 MPH with higher gusts.

Helene is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph and will likely continue to do so through early Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center expects northward to north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed on Wednesday and Thursday.  

On the forecast track, the center of Helene will move across the far northwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight, and then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday, potentially reaching the Gulf coast of Florida late Thursday. 

Additional strengthening is forecast. Helene should become a hurricane on Wednesday and could become a major hurricane on Thursday. 

A major factor in the forecast of hazards is the size of the storm. Currently, tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles to the east of the center. Helene’s forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of hurricane size at similar latitudes. If accurate, that means only 10% of hurricanes will exceed its size.

Due to the forecast large size of this system, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, particularly on the east side.  

Hazards Affecting Land

Rainfall

Heads up if you have friends, family or travel plans in the southeast this week. Helene should produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated totals around 12 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with minor to moderate river flooding likely, and isolated major river flooding possible.

For the latest forecast rainfall associated with Helene, see the National Weather Service at hurricanes.gov/graphicsat4.shtml?rainqpf.
Flash-Flood Risk

Most of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia have a moderate (40-70%) chance of flash flooding.

 For the latest flash-flood risk updates see: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. 
Storm Surge

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and high tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to flood. The water could reach 10-15 feet above ground between Ochlockonee River, FL and Chassahowitzka. For other areas see the map below.

For the latest storm surge estimates , see the NWS at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. 
Wind

Hurricane conditions are possible within the U.S. watch areas Wednesday night and early Thursday. 

Tropical storm conditions should hit the Lower Florida Keys beginning Wednesday, and are possible in the watch area in the Middle Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday. 

Helene should make landfall in the Panhandle Thursday morning and reach Atlanta by Thursday evening or Friday morning.

Compared to yesterday’s forecast, the chance of damaging winds now extends much farther north, well into Georgia.

The fast forward speed of the storm when it crosses the coast will likely result in inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States well after landfall. 

Surf

Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  

Intensification

Several factors suggest rapid intensification of Helene:

  • Shear over the system will decrease. Model guidance continues to show relatively low to moderate shear for the next 48 hours or so.  
  • Oceanic heat content values are very high.
  • The system will move through an environment of upper-level divergence. 

Therefore, NHC anticipates significant strengthening. NHC’s intensity forecast shows the system reaching a peak intensity around 100 kt (116 MPH) in 48 hours while over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. 

Given the system’s large size, it might only weaken slowly even if it encounters sheer near the Panhandle. As a result, there is still a risk that the system could reach the coast as a major hurricane. 

Key Messages

1. Helene will be near hurricane strength early Wednesday when it shoots the gap between the Yucatan and Cuba.

2. Helene should rapidly intensify over the eastern Gulf and become a major Category 3 hurricane as it approaches the coast on Thursday. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds continues to increase along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and Florida’s west coast. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are in effect for much of that area. Residents should follow advice given by local officials. 

3. Helene will bring heavy rain which will likely result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding will also be possible. 

Here’s what Helene looked like this morning from space.

Helene as of 10AM 9/24/24 CDT circled in red.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 1 PM on 9/24/24

2584 Days since Harvey

NHC Issues Advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone 9

9/23/24 at 12 PM – The National Hurricane Center has designated a disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean as Potential Tropical Cyclone 9. Currently, NHC gives the storm a 90% chance of development in the next two days.

According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, models indicate it will likely escalate into a Category 4 hurricane as it heads north over the warm waters of the Gulf.

However, it will likely make landfall along the Florida Panhandle. Current forecasts indicate no threat to Texas. Overnight, the projected track of the storm shifted farther east.

Projections as of Noon Monday

I’m posting this because Houston residents may have friends, relatives or travel plans in affected areas. See below.

Center of storm has equal change of tracking anywhere within cone. Cone does not indicate width of storm.

Tropical storm force winds associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 should arrive in the big bend area of the Florida panhandle sometime between Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

NHC predicts a 50:50 chance for tropical storm force winds extending north into Georgia.

The National Weather Service has this to say for people in the Panhandle and southern Georgia, “There is a potential for significant storm surge; heavy rainfall and flooding; and strong winds across the north and eastern Gulf Coast.”

“Impacts could begin as early as Wednesday night and last into Friday,” says NWS. “More detailed and specific impacts will be highly dependent on future track/intensity and we’ll be including those in future updates in the next day or two.”

Winds have a 95 percent chance of a 75 MPH increase during the next 72 hours.

National Hurricane Center

Frequency of Major Hurricanes

When/if the Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 reaches 39 MPH, NHC will dub it Helene.

We’ve already had one major hurricane in the Gulf this year – Beryl. The second major hurricane usually develops in the Atlantic Basin by September 19. So, even though this season has fewer than normal named storms, it will have an average number of major hurricanes for this part of the season if Helene becomes a Category 3 or higher.

Average hurricane season stats
From NHC’s Climatology Page

Current Status

At present, NHC says the area of concern in the northwestern Caribbean between Honduras and Cuba continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images.

A  gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next day or so. Models agree that the center of the system should reach the northeast Gulf on Thursday.

Since the disturbance currently lacks a  well-defined center, future track adjustments may be required. Given the large size of the  tropical-storm-force wind field and fast forward speed that is forecast, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system.  

While the system is currently broad and not well organized, the  models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the  next day or so.

Once the system becomes better organized and develops an inner core, the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for significant strengthening. The sea surface temperature anomaly chart below shows that temperatures in the Caribbean and Gulf are up to 8 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average for this time of year.

 

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system this afternoon.

Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches have already been issued for portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan  Peninsula of Mexico.

Key Messages

  • The disturbance will strengthen and be near hurricane strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday night.
  • The system will intensify and could become a major hurricane when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday.
  • There is an  increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging  hurricane-force winds along portions of the northern and  northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and  portions of the Florida west coast. But it is too soon to  specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts.
  • Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean. That may lead to flooding and possible  mudslides in western Cuba.  
  • Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will likely produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches.
  • Heavy rainfall will spread into the Southeast U.S. starting on Wednesday and continuing through Friday, bringing a risk of flash and river flooding.  
For the latest rainfall forecasts associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphics.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/23/24

2582 Days since Hurricane Harvey 

Potential New Tropical System Headed Toward Central Gulf

9/22/2024 at 6PM – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a 2PM update today that warns of an 80% chance of a potential new tropical system forming in the seven days. They give the new tropical system a 40% chance in the next two days. The system is now centered in the northwestern Caribbean between Honduras and Cuba.

However, NHC predicts the storm will track somewhere between New Orleans and the Florida Panhandle. While it is no immediate threat to Texas, residents should keep an eye on developments in the next few days, they say.

NHC Graphics

Two-day outlook gives system a 40% chance of development.
Seven-day outlook gives the system an 80% chance.

Favorable Environmental Conditions

NHC predicts the track will bend east after crossing between the Yucatan and the western tip of Cuba.

“Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure,” they say. “Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days…”

Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this feature.

Later this week, the system should move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, and “interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the progress of this system.”

Potential system in center of frame could be pulled north and east by an exiting low-pressure system that now stretches from West Texas to New England near top of frame.

Local Impacts Seen as Limited As of Now

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, said, “The system should lift northward over the Gulf of Mexico by mid to late week. A large upper level low over the southern plains will help draw the tropical system north of northeast toward the US Gulf coast.”

Lindner added that most models are in agreement at this point which makes confidence fairly high. However, he also said, “There may be some small differences in the ultimate track toward the US Gulf coast.”

He concluded, “Guidance also suggests this will be a large tropical system which is capable of moving huge amounts of water in the Gulf.”

“With the current higher than normal fall lunar tides in place, there is some potential for elevated tides along the Texas coast late this week, even for a tropical system passing well to our east.”

Year-to-Date Hurricane Season Behind Average

So far, we have had seven named storms this year:

  • Alberto
  • Beryl
  • Chris
  • Debby
  • Ernesto
  • Francine
  • Gordon

If this system turns into a named storm, it will become Helene.

Everyone predicted a severe hurricane season this year, but so far, it has not materialized. On average, we have our tenth named storm by now. See below.

From National Hurricane Center Climatology Page

All last week, forecasters warned that this storm had a chance of development. And on most days, the chances increased. Keep your eye on this one!

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/22/24

2581 Days since Hurricane Harvey


Is Beryl Debris Cleared from Your Stream or Channel Yet?

9/21/2024 – Is Beryl debris cleared from the stream or channel nearest you yet? Here’s how to report fallen trees when you find them blocking waterways. Hurry. Once the equipment is gone, it will be hard to get it back.

Harris County Flood Control District and FEMA contractors have been hard at work for the last two months removing those blockages. But they have 2500 miles of channels to clear. Some of those miles, like those in Kingwood, are difficult to access and they’re massively clogged with debris.

Ensuring debris is removed involves reporting the precise location of blockages which don’t always have street addresses. If your phone doesn’t embed GPS coordinates in images, identify the location on the channel map in Harris County’s Flood Education Mapping Tool.

In many cases, clearing blockages may also involve negotiating rights of access with contractors across homeowner or trail association property. So make sure you inform your associations, too.

How Debris Creates Hidden Flood Threats

On July 8, Beryl bulldozed its way through Houston. The damage was especially bad in the Lake Houston Area. Trees fell on roofs and power lines everywhere. Many homes still await repair, though power has been restored.

But hidden out of sight, are hundreds, if not thousands of trees that fell into our streams and channels, deep in the woods where most people don’t see them. If left in place, these trees can catch others swept downstream in future floods. And the resulting log dams, can back water up into homes, causing even more damage.

And Beryl left a lot of debris.

Removing 350 Tons from One Channel in One Day

Optimal, a FEMA contractor, said they removed 350 tons of debris from one channel in Kings Forest in one day. The work involved several vehicles. That’s 700,000 pounds.

To put 700,000 pounds in perspective, the average house weighs between 80,000 and 160,000 pounds. So, that’s like removing the equivalent of 5-9 homes blocking a channel every day!

See the pictures below supplied by Chris Bloch, a Bear Branch Trail Association Director. He took them on on 9/18/24 in Kings Forest and Kingwood Lakes.

The yellow tracked vehicle in the creek cuts logs (right) and wrestles them into another tracked vehicle which hauls them out of the woods.

Here’s what they are up against.

It’s was a messy job. But they removed the threats.

The 12-Ton tracked dump truck hauled the logs and brush to the Kings Forest Pool parking lot.
They piled it up for other trucks to take away. It all operated like an assembly line. Or should I say disassembly line?

Some blockages may require bigger equipment which is in shorter supply according to Bloch. In those cases, contractors may have to return later. The main thing is to report all the damage you find to HCFCD now. They still have quite a few Kingwood channel sections to clear. But hurry. Hurricane season is far from over.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/21/24

2580 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Design Finally Starting on New Lake Houston Floodgates

9/20/24 – At City Council Member Fred Flickinger’s town hall meeting last night, discussion of new Lake Houston floodgates consumed a large portion of the meeting. The big news: final design of the gates has started. But design will not finish until the end of 2025. Construction could take another 3-5 years or more. However, enough money is available to get the project started.

During Q&A, several residents expressed surprise and dismay that the project was not further along.

Details of Gates Project from Presentation

Recommendation

The slide below shows the current plan – to add 11 new Tainter gates to the earthen embankment east of the spillway and existing gates. The new gates will bring the total release capacity of the dam up to 80,000 cubic feet per second from 10,000.

Outline of Lake Houston Floodgates recommendation
Alt 1B in the title of the slide refers to one of several alternatives developed during the preliminary-engineering phase.

Note the gray diagram on the right with the red lettering in the slide above. It shows the gates being installed in a U-shaped structure protruding in front of the existing dam. This eliminates the need for a temporary “coffer” dam in the lake during construction.

Timeline

A review of the timeline when the conceptual plans were first proposed in 2022 showed completion of construction in 2026. Now the City hopes to complete the final design by 2026. Construction could take another 3-5 years beyond that.

Could the schedule slip again? Council Member Flickinger emphasized that FEMA has a final deadline that can’t slip: May 26th of 2026 (18 months from now) for final approval of all the upfront work before construction starts.

However, when FEMA made its initial grant of $50 million for the gates project back in 2019, it said that it required the project to be complete in 3 years, i.e., by 2022.

Complexity Blamed for Delays

Flickinger, who only this year inherited this project, has been trying to accelerate it. He suggested that project complexity and cost uncertainty were the main reasons for delays to date.

The initial recommendation was to add crest gates to the spillway portion of the dam. That would have required lowering the dam several feet before adding gates. However, Public Works could not find any contractors willing to bid on the project. The risk with a 75 year old dam was too high. That required a reboot of the entire project.

With the reboot and a new recommended alternative, came cost uncertainty.

Simultaneously, uncertainty surrounded whether FEMA would support the Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA). Traditionally, FEMA wants benefits to exceed damage repair costs. However on this project costs exceeded benefits – until Dave Martin, Flickinger’s predecessor, convinced FEMA to include “social benefits.”

Social benefits include things like avoidance of disruptions to business, commerce, schools and the area’s tax base. Including those brought the BCA up to 2.88 said Martin in December 2022. Suddenly, that made the project doable again.

The slide below shows how the current costs and funding commitments compare. If we can avoid more delays, there’s a chance we have enough money to complete this project. Otherwise, it’s back to the federal trough.

Projected financial commitments currently exceed projected costs.

But inflation is always a worry. So is overly optimistic estimating, which often happens in the early stages of projects because it generates follow-on work. Plus we’ve had turnover in Houston Public Works with the change in administrations.

Finally, given the number of entities involved (City, Harris County, State, Federal, Coastal Water Authority, engineering companies, legal counsel, etc.), coordination is also an issue.

Example: City Council approval of an inter-local agreement (ILA) on 9/11 with FEMA, Texas Division of Emergency Management, and the Coastal Water Authority. It concerned changes to the scope and recommendations in the project.

The ILA finally cleared the way for the project to move forward. But ILA approval came two months after the Coastal Water Authority approved it. And five months after FEMA and Texas Division of Emergency Management approved it. The City legal department had already approved the changes before they went to CWA, according to Flickinger’s office. So why did we lose half a year before it even got on the Council agenda?

This certainly qualifies as a failure of project management. A single accountable person with the authority to mandate and generate urgency is an opportunity.

I could get no good answers from the City although I have heard concerns expressed about excessive turnover in Public Works associated with new leadership in the department. Regardless, we lost another 6 months. Again. This time, for no good reason.

Flickinger said quite bluntly last night, “We need to do a better job of communicating.”

Appointment of Dan Huberty to CWA Board

In that regard, Mayor Whitmire has appointed Dan Huberty to the Coastal Water Authority Board. Huberty, supported this project since the beginning when he was state rep. He also lives on the lake. So, he will be a valuable advocate. He can help fill that communication gap.

CWA Director Dan Huberty (left) addressed Kingwood Town Hall with Council Member Flickinger (right)

Huberty, like Flickinger, said, “Better communication on activity, status, budget, and schedule is needed.”

Overall, our elected officials emphasized that community participation in the conversation will be important. 

Officials also emphasized that community involvement by comments in City Council meetings and in Austin are essential to maintaining urgency.

An estimated 300 people packed the Kingwood Town Hall Meeting

Approximately 300 people attended the Town Hall meeting, which ran 3 hours.

Other Topics, Presenters

Last night’s agenda covered a wide range of topics. In addition to the gates, presentations also included other flood-related topics such as sedimentation, dredging, and sand traps. More on those in another post.

Presentations also included semi-flood-related topics such as Solid Waste Management and Northpark Expansion, which I have covered amply in other posts.

Policing and crime reduction were also discussed. But while fascinating and a large part of the meeting, they are off topic for this blog. So I’ll leave that to others.

At-Large City Council Members Twila Carter and Julian Ramirez also spoke in addition to State Representative Charles Cunningham. So did the heads of several City departments.

For More Information

To see a video of the entire meeting, click here.

To see the entire slide deck, click here.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/20/2024

2579 Days since Hurricane Harvey

North Houston Association Identifies 27 Strategic Flood Reduction Priorities

9/19/24 – On Tuesday 9/17/24, the North Houston Association held a reception for members and the press to promote 27 strategic flood-reduction priorities in the new state flood plan.

The state flood plan contains thousands of recommendations from 15 different river basins around the state. However, the boundaries of the North Houston Association (NHA) fall entirely within the San Jacinto River Basin (Region 6). And NHA represents interests only in the northern part of the basin.

North Houston Association Service Area

The Association represents business interests primarily in northern Harris and southern Montgomery Counties.

The 27 priorities extend from northern Montgomery County to central Harris County. They also spread from Waller and Grimes Counties on the west to Liberty County on the East. See map below.

For a comprehensive description of each project and its importance, see: https://www.north-houston.com/nha-strategic-flood-reduction-priorities.

Summary of Each Recommendation

Below is a high level summary of each NHA recommendation. For maps and additional details including benefits, funding potential partnerships, and costs, click on the embedded links.

  1. Garret’s Creek Stormwater Detention Basin will provide approximately 16,850 acre-feet of storage capacity to reduce flood risk along Lake Creek and the San Jacinto West Fork.
  2. Caney Creek Stormwater Detention Basin at FM 1097 will provide approximately 13,900 acre-feet of storage capacity to reduce damage downstream. Steep terrain at this site allowed for necessary volume within a smaller footprint which minimizes land acquisition costs.
  3. East Fork San Jacinto Winters Bayou Dam and Stormwater Detention Basin will provide 45,055 acre-feet of storage capacity north of Cleveland.
  4. Little Caney Creek Stormwater Detention will provide approximately 17,500 acre-feet of storage capacity and will reduce flooding along both Lake Creek and the West Fork.
  5. Joint Reservoir Operations Study for Lake Conroe and Lake Houston will determine the most efficient and safe way to operate the two reservoirs in series. The study will include:
    • Evaluation of synced operations protocols
    • Joint notification protocols
    • Public communication strategies
    • Pre-release procedures
    • Related impacts on water supply
    • Development of a forecasting tool for Lake Houston.
  6. Caney Creek Stormwater Detention Basin at SH105 will provide approximately 28,090 acre-feet of storage capacity to reduce downstream damage. Again, the steep terrain minimizes land acquisition costs.
  7. Another Caney Creek Stormwater Detention Basin in Lake Creek Watershed will provide approximately 19,750 acre- feet of storage capacity.
  8. Peach Creek Stormwater Detention Basin at SH105 will provide approximately 36,197 acre-feet of storage capacity.
  9. Walnut and Birch Creek Stormwater Detention Basins in the Spring Creek Watershed will provide approximately 12,159 acre-feet of storage capacity and 7,731 acre-feet respectively.
  10. River Plantation Channel will widen a 9.3- mile-long stretch of the West Fork to increase conveyance capacity and lower the water surface elevation.
  11. Peach Creek Channelization at I-69 would widen a 4.3-mile-long stretch of the creek to increase conveyance capacity and also provide approximately 800 ac-ft of detention volume.
  12. Spring Creek Woodlands Channel improvements include a 9.7-mile long, 500-feet-wide “benching plan.” It would accommodate increased flow by excavating a series of steps in the floodplain and reduce flood elevations by 3.5 to 8 feet. The project would also provide 12,500 ac-ft of detention volume to mitigate adverse impacts downstream.
  13. West Fork San Jacinto Sediment Removal and Sand Trap Development would try to intercept sand and sediment before it reaches the Lake Houston Area. Miners would remove sand from the river in select locations.
  14. Caney Creek Channelization at I-69 would “bench” a 7.8-miles of the creek to increase conveyance capacity. To offset adverse downstream impacts, the program would require approximately 530 ac-ft of detention volume upstream.
  15. Willow Creek Detention Basins include nine areas along Willow Creek totaling 900 acres. Another 450 acres would be acquired for floodplain preservation.
  16. Spring Creek at I-45 channelization would provide a 300-foot-wide benched improvement stretching 6.9 miles. The project would also include approximately 8,000 ac-ft of detention volume upstream of offset potentially adverse impacts downstream.
  17. Little Cypress Creek Frontier Program acquires land for future, regional stormwater mitigation projects such as stormwater detention and conveyance.
  18. Cypress Creek Implementation Plan outlines a comprehensive, watershed-wide approach to flood mitigation including stormwater detention basins, channel improvements, and right-of-way acquisition for floodplain preservation.
  19. Cypress and Little Cypress Creek Storm Tunnels would convey some stormwater underground to reduce surface flooding.
  20. Kingwood Benching would widen the West Fork to 3,500 feet starting at the elevation of 42 feet. It will require over 30.5 million cubic yards of excavation over a surface area of 3,527 acres. Mitigating potential downstream impacts will also require approximately 923 ac-ft of detention volume upstream.
  21. Greens Bayou Mid-Reach Program will make numerous channel improvements to provide at least a 10-year level of service within the project area.
  22. West Fork San Jacinto Lake Houston Dam Project will add 11 tainter gates to the dam to provide more controlled releases during floods and reduce flood risk.
  23. Greens Bayou Flood Tunnel will reduce surfaces flooding by conveying stormwater underground.
  24. Halls Bayou Flood Tunnel. Ditto.
  25. Halls Bayou Vision Plan and Federal Study would provide a comprehensive flood-reduction plan involving more than 30 separate projects within the watershed.
  26. Luce Bayou Interagency Coordination. The Luce watershed covers about 227 square miles, of which only 23 square miles are within Harris County. Solving flooding problems here will require cooperation with other counties.
  27. Jackson Bayou. A recently completed comprehensive planning effort included a combination of channel conveyance and stormwater detention improvements. Now the challenge is to make them real.

Cooperative Effort

Any effort as large as this involves many community groups, companies and governmental organizations working together. US Representative Dan Crenshaw, Harris County Commissioners Leslie Briones and Tom Ramsey, Freese Nichols, Halff, Quiddity Engineering, and the SJRA all sponsored Tuesday’s event. But there were many other participants including the Greens Bayou Coalition, the Cypress Creek Flood Coalition, the East Aldine District, North Houston District and more.

Subcommittee members within NHA’s Water Committee who crafted the list above.

Eligibility for Funding from State

Alan Black of Quiddity Engineering and a former Acting Director of the Harris County Flood Control District, explained how NHA compiled its list. In addition to the reasons listed in each link above, he emphasized the importance of funding and the state flood plan.

“Every single one of these projects in this plan are included in the recently completed state flood plan,” he said.

Alan Black, VP of Quiddity Engineering, one of the events sponsors.

“The reason that’s important is that since 2019, the state legislature has appropriated more than $1 billion to the Flood Infrastructure Fund. And recently, in the 2023 legislature, they added criteria that said those funds can’t be spent on anything except projects in the state flood plan. So every one of these projects is eligible for funding through state appropriations,” said Black.

Call to Action

Black also acknowledged that a billion dollars is wholly inadequate to fund all the projects in the state plan. He estimated the $54 billion of projects currently included in the plan could easily double within the next five-year planning cycle.

“So my call to action,” said Black, “is to encourage each of you to talk with your state representatives, your state senators, and say, ‘Continue to provide meaningful investment into the flood infrastructure fund, so we can see these projects come to fruition.'”

Posted By Bob Rehak on 9/19/24

2578 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Don’t Miss Town Hall Meeting Thursday Evening

9/18/2024 – Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger will host a town hall meeting on Thursday 9/19/24 at the Kingwood Community Center. Doors open at 6PM. The program starts at 6:30.

Houston District E City Council Member Fred Flickinger

The event will feature a series of informational presentations at tables where residents can talk to representatives of various city departments. It will also feature several presentations, followed by Q&A.

Even though the program will be hosted in Kingwood, all residents of the Lake Houston Area including Huffman are welcome to the town hall and will find something of value. The agenda includes topics that apply to everyone, such as status of the Lake Houston Dam Gates Project.

Time, Date, Place

  • Thursday, September 19th
  • Program: 6:30 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.
  • Kingwood Community Center
  • 4102 Rustic Woods Drive
  • Kingwood, Texas 77345

Featured Speakers

Speakers will address issues crucial to the safety and success of the Lake Houston Area. They include:

  • State Representative Charles Cunningham will kick off the meeting. He will discuss his priorities going into the next legislative session.
  • Houston At-Large City Council Member Twila Carter will also talk about her priorities.
  • Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey hopes to make the meeting, but will be coming from budget meetings downtown and may not make it if they run over.
  • New Coastal Water Authority Board Director Dan Huberty will give an update on the project to add more flood gates to the Lake Houston Dam.
  • Ekaterina Fitos, Houston’s Water Planning Director, will discuss the status of dredging and sand traps, designed to reduce sedimentation and flood risk.
  • Mark Wilfalk, Houston’s Director of Solid Waste Management, will go over storm debris pickup following Hurricane Beryl. He will cover lessons learned and what they will do differently in the next disaster.
  • Tom Broad, chair of the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority, will give an update on the Northpark Expansion Project.
  • New Houston Police Chief J. Noe Diaz will inform residents of his priorities moving forward.
  • Sergeant Rajesh Sawlani, also with HPD, will talk about crime suppression tactics and strategies being implemented in other parts of the City. He will also cover the growing homeless population in Kingwood.

Booths around the perimeter of the room will feature Houston:

The ambitious town hall agenda covers a lot of territory. So, come early. Mingle with neighbors. And ask your questions at the tables if you can. It’s been a year since we last had a town hall meeting with Dave Martin.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/18/2024

2577 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Leaders Share Status of Local Flood-Mitigation Projects

9/17/24 – Yesterday, five leaders who represent the Lake Houston Area met to discuss the status of local flood-mitigation projects. The representatives included:

  • U.S. Congressman Dan Crenshaw (TX-02)
  • State Representative Charles Cunningham (TX HD-127)
  • Harris County Commissioner Tom Ramsey, P.E. (Precinct 3)
  • Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger (District E)
  • Dr. Tina Petersen, P.E., Executive Director, Harris County Flood Control District

The combination of leaders from all levels of government underscored the cooperative nature of local flood-mitigation projects. Such projects usually involve federal funding which local sources use to actually build the projects.

Left to Right: Ramsey, Crenshaw, Petersen, Flickinger and Cunningham

Woodridge Village/Taylor Gully History

As the site for their press conference, they chose Woodridge Village in Montgomery County. Woodridge was the failed Perry Homes development that flooded hundreds of homes in Elm Grove twice in 2019. The City of Houston and Harris County eventually purchased the site in 2021 to build a flood-mitigation project on it. The project would help reduce flood risk along Taylor Gully, which drains the site.

Later in 2021, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) signed an excavation and removal (E&R) contract with Sprint Sand and Clay. The contract let Sprint remove up to 500,000 cubic yards of dirt and sell it at market rates. If all 500,000 cubic yards had been removed, it would have doubled the stormwater detention capacity on the site. However, after excavating 156,478 cubic yards, HCFCD terminated the contract in 2023.

The termination coincided with applications for funding to the Texas General Land Office (GLO) and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to mitigate both Woodridge and Taylor Gully.

The E&R contract termination was mandatory under HUD rules. Why? Simple. A project cannot change while it is being estimated and evaluated.

Hosts of the press conference pose for a drone shot in front of the area in Woodridge Village to be excavated. It actually includes more than what you see. Much is out of frame.

Woodridge/Taylor Gully Project Today

The combined Taylor Gully/Woodridge Village project involves funding from multiple sources:

According to Dr. Tina Petersen, the Flood Control District “should hear soon” about the status of the District’s Woodridge and Taylor Gully applications.

A department spokesperson added, “As of now, we’re looking at combining Taylor Gully and Woodridge to move them forward more quickly. We’re working with the General Land Office on the schedule for this project. And the biggest driver of that schedule is environmental due diligence and permitting work.”

 HCFCD applied for grants to:

  • Expand a portion of Taylor Gully and lining it with concrete.
  • Build yet another stormwater detention basin on Woodridge Village holding 412 acre-feet.
  • Replace the culverts at Rustling Elms with a clear-span bridge.

Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey PE stated that the combined projects will cost $55 million to complete.

Crenshaw-Related Projects

Congressman Dan Crenshaw has a hand in almost all local flood-mitigation projects. He kicked off his part of the program citing some startling statistics. Recently, more than 763,000 Harris County households have requested FEMA assistance totaling $460 million in relief. Among them were the hundreds of homes along Taylor Gully.

US Representative Dan Crenshaw kicked off the press conference.

Crenshaw also alluded to other local flood-mitigation projects:

  • $222 million used to dredge the San Jacinto River
  • A new dredging project (see below).
  • $8 million used to reinforce the existing Lake Houston dam structure
  • Eight community project funding grants
  • An early flood-warning system, including a cellular communication program funded by FEMA
  • News tools to increase more precise calculation of flood risks
  • Buyouts and home elevations, such as those in Forest Cove.

Crenshaw concluded, “These projects are exactly what the appropriations process and government funding should be supporting: serious, targeted projects that will help communities recover from past storms and protect them from future storms.”

He added, “These projects actually save taxpayer money because we’re avoiding more costly recovery efforts in the future by mitigating the damage before it happens.”

Ramsey and Importance of Maintenance

Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Ramsey, an engineer by trade, explained the flood-mitigation process. He thanked Crenshaw for funding the studies that are allowing many projects, including the Kingwood Diversion Ditch, to move forward. It, too, is pending final construction funding.

Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Ramsey addressed county’s role in Kingwood projects and need for more maintenance funding.

Ramsey also provided an overview of Edgewater Park development. After Harvey, the county purchased land next to the West Fork east of US59. The county is turning it into a recreational facility, complete with a boat launch, hiking trails and a dog park. Ramsey said, “It is in final design now. We will be moving to construction. The money has been identified. So that’s an enhancement that we can look forward to.”

Finally, Ramsey underscored the importance of providing more maintenance funding for HCFCD to help remove debris from streams and ditches, such as Bens Branch. He urged voters to approve more maintenance money for HCFCD in the November election. As the amount of land HCFCD must maintain has increased, the money to maintain it has decreased.

Cunningham and the Big Picture

State Representative Charles Cunningham also emphasized the value of cooperation among different levels of government.

State Rep. Charles Cunningham highlighted state funding for more floodgates which qualified for matching funds.

“I was pleased to get $50 million for the flood gates in the last session,” he said. That allowed us to get an additional $50 million from FEMA. So, that was $100 million total.”

He also referred to the importance of the first Texas state flood plan. “There are 30 million Texans in the state and the flood plan is addressing the needs of 5.5 million flood-prone people.”

Flickinger Leads with Gates and Dredging

Among the local flood-mitigation projects that District E City Councilman Fred Flickinger discussed:

  • Dredging
  • Flood gates for the Lake Houston Dam
  • The Coastal Water Authority
  • Debris removal.
City of Houston District E Council Member Fred Flickinger

The City and its partners have already dredged 4 million cubic yards of sediment since Hurricane Harvey, he said. “There’s no doubt in my mind that it is the removal of that sediment that actually kept Kingwood from flooding during this last flood event in May.”

Flickinger said another 800,000 to 1,000,000 cubic yards will soon be removed – once Beryl recovery efforts are out of the way. He said the next dredging program should start in December.

He also expressed hope that the addition of former State Representative Dan Huberty to the Coastal Water Authority Board will help accelerate the addition of more floodgates to the Lake Houston Dam.

Flickinger provided a list of 58 drainage improvement projects totaling $55.8 million since Harvey. They ranged from under $20,000 to more than $30 million. While most have been completed, two are still ongoing. Frankly, most of these flew beneath my radar. But I did cover many of them, such as repairs to the West Lake Houston Parkway Bridge.

Petersen: Capital Projects Require More Maintenance Dollars

HCFCD executive director Dr. Tina Petersen alluded to the Woodridge/Taylor Gully Project where the press conference took place. She underscored how the project would increase stormwater detention and channel capacity.

“They (the combined projects) represent substantial investment in the Kingwood area and will reduce the risk of flooding for hundreds of structures in this area,” she said.

Dr. Tina Petersen, executive director of HCFCD

But, she also reminded people that, “Adding storage like this project (Woodridge), will require maintenance work to make sure that our storm systems are functioning as intended.” It was another allusion to the upcoming HCFCD ballot item.

GLO Perspective

HUD funding through the GLO is necessary to finance the Woodridge/Taylor Gully projects. The decision on grant applications has not yet been made. However, a GLO spokesperson emphasized how much better their relationship is with Houston these days under Mayor John Whitmire. “And HCFCD is fantastic to work with,” she added.

But she also emphasized the importance of getting the environmental assessment right for the Woodridge/Taylor Gully project. “We don’t want to fix one problem only to create another downstream. Also, if we do discover a problem during the assessment, we can correct it before it goes into bidding and construction when it would require change orders and new funding approvals.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/17/2024

2576 Days since Hurricane Harvey

 

 

Pictures of First Northpark Concrete Pour

9/16/24 – As promised, contractors began the first Northpark concrete pour for a major stretch of the road expansion project this morning. They scheduled the pour for 3 AM to 1 PM. And by 9:30 AM they appeared on schedule to finish the first 1,000 feet within the allotted time. See the pics below, all taken on 9/16/24.

Looking west toward area already complete on the south side of Northpark.
Looking west. Concrete begins to cure at the entrance to Kings Mill.
Looking east. Four concrete trucks were lined up to deliver their loads in assembly-line fashion.
Looking East. Workers attacked the concrete like a well-oiled machine. One man guided the trough that delivered the mix, while others spread the concrete, and smoothed it out.
Reverse angle shows the team in action as a truck unloads.
Closeup of the coordinated team work.

After this first Northpark concrete pour, we should see three more by October 1. See the plan here.

More Visible Progress, Next Stages

According to project manager Ralph De Leon, the underground drainage and utility work is the hardest and slowest part of the project. “So, residents will see much faster progress now,” he said.

Northpark expansion will accommodate population growth and speed up traffic. But it will also create an all-weather evacuation route for 78,000 Kingwood residents.

The center ditch that used to go down Northpark has now been totally replaced with box culverts. Now contractors are paving over the culverts.

The old lanes will be demolished and replaced by new concrete also.

After Northpark is paved from Russell Palmer Road to Loop 494, the focus will shift to repaving a portion of 494 and then the commercial strip between 494 and the entry ponds at US59.

To help the public plan around construction, the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority constantly updates its project page with a three-week “look-ahead” schedule.

For More Information

The posts below contain a history of the project.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/13/24

2572 Days since Hurricane Harvey

San Jacinto River Basin Recommendations in State Flood Plan

The new Texas state flood plan contains approximately 4351 recommendations in 15 regions statewide. The spreadsheet runs 147 pages in 3-point type. An eagle would have trouble seeing this type!

Recommendations in the San Jacinto River Basin alone (Region 6) total 519. And they’re buried within the larger spreadsheet, making it difficult summarize and compare them, much less see how the money is being distributed locally.

State Flood Plan Costs Staggering

The costs of the state flood plan are staggering. If all projects were implemented statewide tomorrow, they would cost more than $54 billion in 2024 dollars. Those in the San Jacinto Basin would total almost $10 billion.

Three Categories of Recommendations

Recommendations fall into three categories: Evaluations (engineering studies that lay the groundwork for future construction projects); Flood-Mitigation Projects (construction); and Strategies (buyouts, elevations, etc.)

The table below shows the breakdown. Region 6 (the San Jacinto Watershed) contains a lower percentage of flood mitigation projects and higher percentages of Evaluations and Strategies than the rest of the state, which is broken down into 15 regions.

Compiled from Volume II of Texas Flood Plan

The map below shows the different regions. Most contain one major river basin.

Texas flood planning regions
From Executive Summary of Flood Plan
From San Jacinto River Authority. The plan identifies many projects by watershed location. Use for reference.

These three PDFs contain Region 6 projects extracted from the 147-page Volume II of the state flood plan.

High Level Observations

Evaluations

I’m still analyzing all these entries. But already several things have jumped out at me from the standpoint of a Lake Houston Area resident.

Most of our stormwater comes from Montgomery County. But in the Evaluation list, Harris County projects outnumber those in Montgomery County by more than 5 to 1.

And most of the projects in Montgomery County tend to be limited in scope. For instance, Conroe has entries for a downtown master drainage plan, an Avenue M drainage plan, a South 3rd drainage plan and more.

Conroe also broke out separate projects for developing benefit-cost analyses associated with such projects and subdivision drainage projects.

Harris County and Galveston County, on the other hand, tended to look at things from a watershed-wide point of view.

Projects

The state flood plan lists only 69 flood-mitigation construction projects in all of the San Jacinto River Basin. And of those, only eight are upstream of Lake Houston. One is already a non-starter. The land for a detention basin on Spring Creek has already been sold for commercial development.

The remaining seven projects with their priority ranks include:

  • Caney Creek channel improvements and detention (#52)
  • Widening the West Fork and shaving down its flood plains (#67)
  • Peach Creek channel improvements and detention (#72)
  • Building a 1.6 mile earthen embankment to capture runoff from Winters Bayou in the East Fork watershed far upstream in San Jacinto County (#82).
  • Lake Creek Detention in Montgomery County (#105)
  • Improvements to the Kingwood Diversion Ditch (#144)
  • Cypress Creek detention (#149)
Strategies

It’s hard to see how any of the 654 strategies listed for the San Jacinto Basin would help the Lake Houston Area. Some might keep flooding from getting worse.

For instance:

  • Coastal Prairie Conservancy proposed a project to conserve more than 1,000 acres in the headwaters of Cypress Creek.
  • Harris County Flood Control proposed money for buyouts and relocations.

Missing: SJRA, Payment Plan, Integration

Strangely, the 147 pages of 3 point type in the state flood plan make no reference to the San Jacinto River Authority or SJRA.

Yet, as we saw in Harvey and again last May, the SJRA has huge gaps in its monitoring network upstream from Lake Conroe. During floods, these gaps make it difficult to assess how much water is moving toward the dam.

So dam operators tend to err on the side of caution and release more water than they may need to. In May, this contributed to the flooding of hundreds of structures downstream from the dam. To me, more gages would have been an important addition to the list.

It’s also not clear how Texas will pay for all these projects.

Currently, the flood infrastructure fund dashboard is down. So there’s no telling what the fund balance is.

But let’s assume it’s a billion dollars. If the legislature voted that every other year, it would take at least a century to build all these projects with inflation factored in.

Finally, it’s not clear how all these projects work together to reduce flood risk, though many mention that they should only be considered after other projects.

Hey, it ain’t perfect. But you have to start somewhere!

For More Information

To learn more about the first Texas state flood plan, read this executive summary, or a summary of the summary which I published earlier this year.

For a deeper dive into floodwaters, check out this Texas Water Development Board page.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/15/24

2574 Days since Hurricane Harvey