Tropical Storm Sara Forms Near Honduras

11/14/25 – At 1 PM EST, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Sara, the 19th named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season. It formed in the western Caribbean near the border between Nicaragua and Honduras.

TD19
TS Sara in center. Satellite image taken at 10:40AM Houston time on 11.14.24.

Circulation and banding appeared on satellite images taken this morning. The storm currently has sustained winds of 40 MPH and a forward speed of 12 MPH. Some strengthening is possible if the storm remains over water.

Life-Threatening Flash Flooding and Mudslides

Be aware in case you have relatives in Central America or travel planned there.

NHC predicts life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides through the weekend.

National Hurricane Center

The system will likely meander in the Bay of Honduras for the next several days, dropping 10-20″ inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 30″.

Mountains border that northern coast of Honduras where the heaviest rain will fall.

Simultaneously, storm surge and large, destructive waves will rake the northern coast of Honduras for several days.

Track Still Uncertain

The track and intensity for Tropical Storm Sara are still somewhat uncertain. That big, empty area in the satellite photo above is a high-pressure ridge, much like the one that protected Houston from Rafael earlier this month.

But the high pressure will break down early next week ahead of an approaching low-pressure system. That could turn Tropical Storm Sara northwest and north-northwest into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

In the meantime, land interaction could also weaken the system.

According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “It is possible that the system moves inland over portions of central America or the Yucatan and dissipates.”

Intensity Forecasts Lowered

While Tropical Storm Sara will encounter favorable conditions over water, the interaction with Honduras will likely limit the upper-end potential of the storm over the next 4-5 days, says Lindner.

Should Sara reach the southern Gulf of Mexico, a powerful frontal system moving off the Texas coast early next week will likely produce wind sheer that weakens the storm further.

“No Threat to Texas Coast”

Lindner concluded, “With a strong, deep-layer trough and front moving into the southern plains early next week, this system poses no threat to the Texas coast.”  

However, NHC warns Gulf Coast residents to regularly monitor updates through mid-week next week.

At present, main wind threat will be to northern coast of Honduras.

On a personal note, I used to scuba dive regularly in Honduras. The country is beautiful. But the terrain along the northern coast is steep and rugged. And building codes are not up to U.S. standards.

Twenty inches of rain could easily devastate the area. So, keep the folks there in your prayers.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/14/24

2634 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Four Years of Persistence by Flood Activist Finally Paying Off

11/13/24 – Four years of persistence by flood activist Chris Bloch are finally paying off. HCFCD is clearing a drainage ditch blocked by silt and vegetation.

Bloch, who does not live near the ditch, has no financial stake in the clean-out effort. Yet he has stayed on top of the project and gently pushed it along out of concern for Kingwood. His persistence should be an example for everyone everywhere.

Blocked culverts before clean-out began

Effort Began in 2020

Concerned about how flooding could affect the future of his community, Bloch, a retired engineer, began exploring local drainage issues after Harvey and quickly became a flood activist. In 2020, he reported problems related to G-103-36-02.1 to Harris County Flood Control. The unnamed ditch runs from Kingwood Drive to Lake Kingwood, a couple blocks east of Woodland Hills Drive.

Ditch in question (a tributary of Bear Branch) is circled in red. From Harris County Flood Education Mapping Tool.

The ditch is only about 1,500 feet long, but helps drain a much larger area around it, including the major intersection of Kingwood Drive and Woodland Hills. The intersection often floods in heavy rains when water backs up in storm sewers because they are blocked by sediment and silt in the ditch.

Extent of clean-out effort on 11/12/24
Same area from ground level. Note dirt piled up on left bank.

The two thoroughfares are important evacuation routes during major floods. The flooded intersection also causes major inconvenience at other times. In addition, homes, yards and streets along the ditch have flooded multiple times in recent years as it has become increasingly blocked.

Bloch worked with the Kingwood Lakes Community Association to grant access, so that Flood Control could cross Kingwood Lakes Property.

Overcoming One Obstacle After Another

Finally, in 2021, Bloch received an email indicating the Flood Control District was finally going to start a clean-out project in June of that year.

But a railing installed by the City of Houston along a Kingwood Drive sidewalk still blocked access to the site.

It took several months for HCFCD to get permission from the City to remove the railing.

June 2021 came and went, and the project never started.  When Bloch inquired about the delay, he was told they would start in September. That did not happen.

In November, HCFCD told him it had cancelled the project because it did not have “property rights” to the channel. This was despite the fact that HCFCD had posted its signs on the channel. 

Bloch persisted. After investigation, he found the City of Houston originally inherited the channel from the MUD District as a result of annexation. The City agreed to transfer the property to the Flood Control District, but somehow the paperwork was never finalized.

So Bloch approached former District E City Council Member Dave Martin. Martin got the paperwork finalized.

Confusion and Nature Lay Down More Obstacles

Finally, in March 2024, HCFCD admitted they had property rights to the ditch and would reinstate the project. 

But HCFCD indicated it would have to clear vegetation before the project could start. According to Bloch, crews came out to Kingwood, but mistakenly cleared vegetation on a different tributary of the Bear Branch channel.

Before they could straighten that out, Hurricane Beryl further obstructed the proper channel. Several trees and limbs fell into it. 

Bloch worked with a FEMA contractor to make sure they cleared the channel of all tree debris. As a result, HCFCD could finally initiate sediment removal and the project began several weeks ago.

Bloch Remains Vigilant

But Bloch has not let up. He continues to watch the contractor like a hawk. His concern: that sediment piled along the channel’s edge could back water up into yards and homes if we get a heavy rain.

Few people would take on a project like this unless it affected them personally. I find Bloch’s persistence amazing, inspiring and refreshing. I see him popping up at projects I follow all over Kingwood. His activism is a shining example of what it takes to get things done when dealing with multiple entities and overworked bureaucracies. It’s just too easy for things to get lost in the shuffle.

Thank you, Chris Bloch! We need more flood activists like you.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/13/24

2633 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Commissioners Court Agenda Raises HCFCD Questions

11/12/24 – On the Harris County Commissioners Court agenda for today, Harris County Engineering has 71 items. Harris County Flood Control (HCFCD) has seven. HCFCD used to battle Engineering each meeting for the title of “most projects on the agenda.” But not these days.

The disparity raises questions about HCFCD. Like “What’s going on?”

The seven HCFCD items include:

  • Two hike-and-bike trail agreements
  • Two engineering contracts
  • Three condemnation proceedings

But no construction that would actually reduce flooding.

Other Flood-Control Items Not Listed Under Flood Control

To be fair, HCFCD also has the following items on the agenda under different department names/headings:

  • Under the County Attorney, a settlement agreement
  • Under Grants, two requests to accept money (from FEMA and Homeland Security)
  • Under Purchasing, one request to advertise a project for bid
  • Also under Purchasing, approval of one contract each for:
    • Mowing
    • Floating, vegetated islands in a detention basin
    • Recycling surplus tires
    • Seed-mix development at Texas A&M
    • Lawn care
  • Under Emergency Items:
    • An engineering contract to design a Friendswood Regional Stormwater Detention Basin
    • Purchase of additional property at the Armand Bayou Nature Preserve

But that’s not all.

$30,000 for an Employee-Engagement Event?

Last but not least, under Travel and Training, for those who care to read the fine print, there’s another item on the agenda: $30,000 for an “Employee engagement event.” See Item 191, Line Item 5 on Page 24.

An HCFCD spokesperson says, “That item refers to funding for employee recognition opportunities, including a lunch event in December for the team.”

As a former business owner, I understand the need for employee recognition. But I never spent that much money on lunch. Nor did my company’s money come from public taxes after a 63% tax increase that squeaked by with a 2% margin of victory.

Regardless of the $30,000 lunch’s merits, the optics don’t look good.

HCFCD said the tax increase would fund increased maintenance needed, in large part, because of increased capital-improvement spending. But there’s not one capital-improvement construction contract on today’s agenda that will actually reduce flooding.

It’s unclear why HCFCD has slowed down. But it has.

spending by quarter since Harvey
In the third quarter of this year, spending slowed to pre-bond levels, according to HCFCD data obtained by a FOIA request.

With about 60% the 2018 Flood Bond still unspent, construction companies say they have capacity available. Money and availability are not the issues.

Neither is staffing. The lunch is for 360 people. That’s more than under the previous administration.

So, maybe it is time to boost employee engagement! But please. The manager of the local Denny’s told me they would cater the event for half the price.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/12/2024

2632 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Rafael Fades into History Books

11/10/24 – Rafael, the up/down, on/off, east/west, north/south storm that defied prediction while stalking the Caribbean and Gulf for the past week, has lost its punch.

Rafael, a Rarity

Rafael reached Category 3 hurricane strength twice on its sojourn. By 9AM this morning, it was barely a tropical storm. And the National Hurricane Center believes it could turn into a remnant low…without making landfall in the U.S. or Mexico.

According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “It is fairly rare for a tropical system in the Gulf to dissipate without reaching land somewhere, but it does happen. The last time something like this occurred this time of year was Hurricane Jeanne in 1980 (Nov 12-15).”

So Rafael will be the second in 45 years!

Rafael’s track across the Gulf of Mexico looked like a loop-de-loop on a roller coaster ride. A Facebook posted proclaimed, “someone should give that storm a DUI.”

Rafael Now a Post Tropical Depression

NHC posted this morning that it expected Rafael to become a post-tropical depression later tonight or tomorrow. It happened by 3 PM Houston CST when winds were measured at 35MPH. And with that, NHC issued its last advisory on Rafael.

“Surface circulation has become poorly defined and very elongated in the north-south direction. Since Rafael does not possess a well-defined center or organized convection, it no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. This will be the final NHC advisory on Rafael,” said NHC.

Will Not Reform Given Amount of Dry Air

This isn’t just a case of a storm stalling while it gathers strength. Lindner says, “Given the large amounts of dry air in place over the Gulf, there is little hope for any regeneration once the system becomes a remnant low later today or Monday.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/10/24

2630 Days since Hurricane Harvey

 

Lake Houston Dredging Program May Still Launch This Year

11/09/2024 – A 900,000 cubic yard, $34 million Lake Houston dredging program announced in late 2023 may still launch this year, according to District E Houston City Council Member Fred Flickinger. Reportedly contributing to delays according to sundry sources at different times and places:

Callan Marine has had their dredge, The General Pershing, docked on the San Jacinto West Fork south of the Forest Cove Pool since at least April 1 this year. Despite several delays, District E officials say the program should start in December.

Callan Dredge docked south of Forest Cove Pool on south side of West Fork.
Dredge pipe assembled and stockpiled opposite dredge on north side of river.

Program Announced in October 2023

At former Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martins October 2023 Town Hall Meeting, Steven Costello announced the objectives and scope of the dredging program.

The primary objective: to maximize storage recovery within Lake Houston’s conservation pool.

Area between FM1960 and Kings Point currently has one of the largest sediment build-ups.

Costello showed slides that projected the loss of 360-460 acre feet per year in the Lake. He also showed maps that showed where accumulated silt and sand intruded the most into the lake’s conservation pool. One of the worst areas was between FM1960 and the confluence of the East and West Forks south of Kings Point.

In the October 2023 town hall meeting, Costello also talked about beneficial secondary uses for the spoils. For instance:

  • Replenishing eroded farmland
  • Building the Ike Dike
  • Re-nourishing eroded beaches
  • Manufacturing concrete.

Mobilization and Delays

Costello, who was Mayor Sylvester Turner’s flood czar, left City employment after the change in administrations earlier this year.

Callan has also reportedly spent several months trying to identify the best location for disposal of the dredging spoils. Last week, they evidently reported to the City that they had purchased a site in Huffman.

Disposal of spoils is complex. It involves economic, environmental, floodplain, and operational issues. The closer to the operation, the better. That minimizes pumping costs.

But in licensing such sites, the Army Corps historically has expressed concern about sediment stored in a floodplain. They don’t want it to wash back into the lake. That could affect water quality and negate any benefit from dredging in terms of the lake’s storage volume.

Other possible delays included potential change in the scope of the project. Floods in January and May deposited additional sediment in Lake Houston and clogged the entries to stream/ditches that outfall into Lake Houston. For instance, the outfall of the Kingwood Diversion Ditch became almost totally blocked.

Because the cost of mobilizing a dredging program is large, it makes sense to do as much as possible while the dredge is here. The City applied for additional aid from FEMA but has not yet heard back yet.

Meanwhile, Callan’s dredge has remained idle for more than seven months. But City officials hope December could be the month when all the pieces of the puzzle fall into place.

Originally, Costello scheduled the project to last through November 2025.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/9/24

2629 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Focus of Northpark Expansion Work Moves Toward Loop 494

11/8/24 – A trip down Northpark Drive today revealed that the focus of Northpark expansion work is shifting west from Russell Palmer toward Loop 494 and US59. The project will create the first all-weather evacuation route from Kingwood. Here’s where things stand.

Major Accomplishments since Last Northpark Post

Since my last Northpark expansion update, contractors for the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ 10 have:

  • Paved a new crossover at Russell Palmer Road
  • Removed about 1,600 feet of the of the old westbound lanes between Sherwin Williams and Loop 494
  • Begun repaving an expanded Loop 494 for about a block north and a block south of Northpark Drive to accommodate extra turn lanes.
  • Prepped the area on the north side of Northpark and west of 494 (Shell to Chick-Fil-A) for paving
  • Worked on new water connections for Northpark businesses.

See the five images below that correspond to the bullet points above.

New crossover at Russell Palmer
Facing E along Northpark near Public Storage. Concrete from old lanes removed in preparation for new surface turn lanes adjacent to bridge.
Looking S toward Northpark at new Loop 494 lanes
Facing W along Northpark toward US59 at area being prepped for paving in coming weeks
Example of water-line work.

The new water lines will enable the removal of old fire hydrants that stand in the way of roadway expansion.

Next Up for Northpark Expansion

A new look-ahead schedule posted today shows that in the next three weeks, work will include:

  • Continue working on waterlines
  • Do more dirt work from Culver’s to Chick-Fil-A
  • Install 6×5 reinforced concrete box culverts from the Quick Quack to the railroad tracks
  • Place Type C inlets on LP 494. (often used to collect runoff from large depressed areas or highway medians)
  • Place base from Culver’s to Chick-Fil-A
  • Prep driveways along west side of Loop 494 to tie into new paving
  • Prep for more paving on west side of Loop 494
  • Pour more Fast-Track concrete on west side of Loop 494
  • Mobilize to Russel Palmer to begin prepping both east- and westbound lanes from Russel Palmer to the end of the project.

Then, they’re back to adding more east- and west-bound lanes on Northpark.  

Pictures of Upcoming Work

Expect to see major work in these areas before Thanksgiving.

Looking west toward UP tracks. Culverts waiting for installation before new surface turn lanes can be constructed next to bridge over tracks.
Facing N along 494 toward Northpark. Pavement and driveways will be constructed the left of the new lanes above.
Looking west on Northpark toward Russell Palmer from over Kingwood Diversion Ditch.

For More Information

For a more detailed schedule of what will happen when, see the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority website.

For a history of the project, consult the ReduceFlooding posts below.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/8/24

2628 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Rafael Weakens, Turns West

11/7/24 10 AM – Late-season Hurricane Rafael briefly intensified into a Category 3 storm yesterday as it crossed over Cuba. But since then it has gradually weakened. This morning, Hurricane Hunters measured the sustained wind speed at 100 MPH, making it a Cat 2 storm. Cat 2 ranges from 96 to 110 MPH.

Rafael in center near western tip of Cuba will be blocked from moving north by high pressure descending from Great Plains. Satellite image taken at 10 AM Houston time.

Recent aircraft fixes indicate Rafael is beginning a leftward (west) turn toward Mexico. NHC notes greater than average uncertainty concerning its track. But if Rafael keeps moving it that direction, the storm would move away from Houston and the northern Gulf of Mexico.

The current forward motion estimate is 9 MPH.

Further Weakening Predicted

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts further weakening today as Rafael encounters minor to moderate wind sheer and drier air pushing down from the north. Flight crews have already noted that the eyewall has opened up to the south and southwest.

Rafael’s central pressure has risen slightly to around 971 mb. NHC expects the hurricane to move into an even drier airmass during the next few days. They say that despite the weakening, Rafael should remain a hurricane through the weekend.

Currently, hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. In its latest update, NHC predicts that tropical storm force winds will not likely reach the Houston area. They say the chance of that is less than 5%.

Main Impact Will be High Waves

The main effect felt in southeast Texas will be high waves. At high tide, they could cause minor coastal flooding.

According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, with Rafael on its projected track, “…large long period swells of 6-10 feet will begin to reach the Texas coast this weekend. When combined with NE winds over the local waters, tides will increase to 3.5-4.0 ft above the barnacle level.”

“This is right on the cusp of coastal flooding thresholds along the upper Texas coast. During high tides into the weekend, some minor coastal flooding may be possible especially on the Gulf facing beaches where elevated wave action will be in place,” said Lindner early this morning.

For those who work offshore, waves could go even higher. At 10:12 AM EST, NHC issued an offshore waters forecast for the Gulf. It says that for the west-central Gulf (91W to 94W longitude and 22N to 26N latitude), seas could reach 16-24 feet in NE to E swells this Saturday.

NHC also says that swells generated by Rafael should spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Late Season Oddity

Lindner noted that it is rare for a hurricane this late in the season to move due west across the entire Gulf of Mexico. The only such similar instance, he says, was hurricane Jeanne from 1980 (Nov 12-15).

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/7/24

2627 Days since Hurricane Harvey

 


HCFCD Prop A Passes by 2% Countywide, But Fails by 13% in Lake Houston Area

11/6/24 – Voters narrowly approved Harris County Flood Control District’s (HCFCD) Proposition A, a 63% tax increase, by a little more than 2 percent on Election Day. However, Prop A failed dramatically in the underserved Lake Houston Area by almost 13 percent – for a total 15.4 percentage-point swing.

The difference underscores frustration over past promises broken, skepticism about future fairness, and doubt about whether area residents will see any benefit from the tax increase.

The Lake Houston Area, which suffered the highest flooding in the county during Harvey, has consistently been shorted by HCFCD in both capital improvement spending from the flood bond and maintenance dollars. The upper San Jacinto watershed drains an area 50% larger than Harris County through Lake Houston. But quarter after quarter, Lake Houston Area watersheds rank in the bottom half of all flood-control mitigation spending.

And when you rank watersheds by maintenance dollars per stream mile, the area ranks in the bottom third of all watersheds.

Possible Reasons Residents Voted Against

In voting against the tax increase yesterday, it’s not clear whether Lake Houston Area voters rejected the massive tax increase because they felt they would not benefit from it.

They may have also wanted to send a message to the 4:1 Democratic majority on Commissioner’s Court about being treated fairly. That majority has twice reneged on recent promises:

  • To sell the 2018 Flood Bond:
    • Commissioners said they would fix the worst flooding first.
    • Then they adopted an equity funding allocation formula that allocates flood-bond dollars by the percentage of low-to-moderate income voters in an area.
    • The formula does not consider threats to infrastructure, flood-related deaths, depth of flooding, flood risk, or damaged structures.
    • In fact, the County’s current administration has repeatedly failed to publicly release flood-risk data.
    • Since the passage of the 2018 Flood Bond, HCFCD has invested more than $200 million in the Brays Bayou watershed. Commissioner Rodney Ellis lives in that watershed. Meanwhile, HCFCD has spent a fifth of that in the San Jacinto watershed and one-thirtieth that amount in the Luce Bayou watershed.
  • To sell the 2022 Road and Parks Bond, Democratic commissioners promised that each of the four Precincts would receive at least a minimum of $220 million. After that bond passed, they allocated $157 million to the lone Republican precinct…which includes half the roads that the county maintains.

Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me…

Lake Houston Area voters were not going to be fooled a third time.

After previous bait-and-switch schemes, I personally wanted to see specific ballot language that guaranteed a fair distribution of funds from the tax. It wasn’t there.

The ballot language in HCFCD’s Prop A did not specify how, when, where, or by what standards the money would be spent. Neither did their road show.

Even though HCFCD pitched the tax as a maintenance tax, nothing in the ballot language limited expenditures to maintenance. In fact, ballot language explicitly included “operations.”

Having been fooled twice, Lake Houston Area voters were not about to be tricked a third time.

People are becoming increasingly skeptical about Harris County’s Democratic leadership.

  • The 2018 Flood Bond passed by more than 85%; the Lake Houston Area had five of the top eight precincts in the county in terms of turnout.
  • The drainage portion of the 2022 bond received a 69% majority.
  • Yesterday’s flood tax vote received only a 52% approval, but only 44% in the Lake Houston Area.

Notice a trend?

An old recipe for success in business says, “Promise what you will deliver and deliver what you promise.” Harris County’s Democratic leadership needs to start delivering what they promise and treating all people fairly…if they ever hope to pass another bond or tax increase.

How I Tallied the Vote

Using the Election Day figures which may change slightly, I tallied up the votes by precinct in the far northeastern part of the county. That included the area:

  • East of US59 to the county line and north to Montgomery County
  • Roughly north of the Greens Bayou watershed and slightly south of the Lake Houston Dam.
  • The area includes Kingwood, Humble, Atascocita, Huffman and Crosby plus unincorporated areas.

Slightly more than a hundred thousand people voted in that area (101,305) according to HarrisVotes.com and Harris County’s voting precinct map.

  • 44,189 voted FOR Prop A (43.62%)
  • 57,116 voted AGAINST (56.38%).

Thus, the Proposition lost within this area by 12.76%. But countywide, the proposition passed by 2.7%. That made the total spread 15.46%.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/6/24

2626 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 1 Day since Election Day 2024

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

TS Rafael Likely to Become Hurricane Tonight Before Weakening in Gulf

11/05/24 – Rafael morphed from Tropical Depression #18 to a tropical storm in the Caribbean yesterday. And it could become a hurricane by tonight as it moves toward the Gulf of Mexico.

However, there is a low likelihood Rafael will reach Texas because of an approaching cold front from the northwest. The front will create strong wind sheer.

Also, nearshore waters, cooled by recent storms, will be in the upper seventies/lower eighties – the threshold temperature required to sustain tropical cyclones. So, we can expect weakening as Rafael approaches the Gulf Coast.

Approaching cold front from NW should block Rafael from reaching Texas.

Forecast Track Still Has High Uncertainty

On the forecast track, Rafael should move near western Jamaica early this afternoon, over the Cayman Islands this evening, and over western Cuba on Wednesday. Once in the Gulf of Mexico late tomorrow, the track becomes far less certain as the storm weakens.

According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “A cold front is expected to sweep off the Texas coast early on Saturday, blocking any potential path toward the Texas coast.” You can see it in the photo above.

The timing of the arrival of the front and the weakening of Rafael will determine the Raphael’s track. As you can see below, models show little agreement at the moment.

Winds Currently at 60 MPH

At 1 PM EST, Rafael had 60 MPH sustained winds and was moving northwest at almost 14 MPH.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts steady to rapid intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours. Rafael should become a hurricane as it
passes near the Cayman Islands later today with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba.

Hurricane warnings are in effect for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

Lindner predicts “Rafael will likely near Category 2 hurricane intensity on approach to Cuba.” Category 1 ranges from 74-95 MPH. Category 2 begins when winds reach 96 MPH.

If Rafael does get close to Houston, we should start to feel its winds late Friday or Saturday.

Rainfall and Surge

NHC predicts rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches. Isolated totals up to 10 inches across higher terrain could lead to flash flooding and mudslides.

The NHC also expects storm surge of 6-9 feet above normal high tides in the Caymans today. Swells generated by Rafael will affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Stay Aware

Any time a hurricane enters the Gulf, you should keep an eye out. Check the National Hurricane Center website daily until you’re sure the threat has passed.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/5/24

2625 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Tropical Storm Raphael Heading North

11/4/2024 4 PM – The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 4 PM update indicates that tropical depression 18 has gained tropical storm strength and will be named Rafael. The report also indicates that Rafael, presently located in the south central Caribbean would likely move over:

  • Jamaica late Monday night as a tropical storm
  • The Cayman Islands by Tuesday as a hurricane
  • Cuba on Wednesday as a hurricane
  • The Gulf of Mexico, heading north as a hurricane.
Rafael in center left at 3:40 CST on 11/4/24

45 MPH Winds at 4PM and Strengthening

As of 4PM today, maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. NHC predicts steady-to-rapid strengthening. The system should become a hurricane on Tuesday.

NHC predicts Rafael will drop 3-6 inches of rain with amounts up to 9 inches locally over The Caymans, Jamaica and Cuba. That much will cause flooding and mudslides, they say.

Storm surge in the Caribbean will be 6-9 feet above normal tide levels. Swells generated by the system should affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Models give the storm a 40 percent chance of a 30 kt speed increase in the next 24 hours and a near 50 percent chance of a 55 kt increase in 48 hours.

Track Over Caribbean Highly Uncertain At This Point

Models closely agree on the track of the storm while in the Caribbean but disagree where it will go once it enters the Gulf. There, model solutions diverge. NHC has low confidence in the Gulf of Mexico forecast track. The wide cone currently stretches from Houston to the Florida Panhandle.

The likely wind field will stretch even wider.

If the storm heads toward Houston, the leading edge of the winds could be felt as early as Friday morning.

Likely to Weaken in Gulf

Environmental factors of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm sea-surface temperatures support intensification. And since the system now has a well organized circulation, NHC has increasing confidence of steady strengthening until the system reaches Cuba or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

In 3 or 4 days, when the system reaches the central Gulf, a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier air, and slightly cooler waters should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening. 

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist predicts the system’s broad wind field will likely begin to impose along the upper Texas coast by late this week into the weekend. He also predicts that upper level wind shear over the US Gulf coast will likely greatly weaken any tropical system prior to reaching the US coast.

Regardless, check the NHC site often for recent updates and confidence about the track increases.

If Rafael is the last named storm of the season, it would put the total (18) in the range of NHC’s predictions.

Season Now Within Range of Earlier Predictions

Tropical events are rare in the Gulf this time of year but not unheard of. NHC’s climatology page shows many storms starting in the Caribbean during this 10-day period. A subset of those moves into the Gulf while others spin off into the Atlantic.

NHC predicted an above average number of named storms this year. Rafael, at number 18, puts us within the range they predicted.

NOAA 2024 Hurricane Season Forecast

Eighteen is also above the average number of named storms we receive in a season.

How 2024 hurricane season stacks up against 30 year average so far.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/4/24

2624 Days since Hurricane Harvey