Potential New Tropical System Headed Toward Central Gulf

9/22/2024 at 6PM – The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a 2PM update today that warns of an 80% chance of a potential new tropical system forming in the seven days. They give the new tropical system a 40% chance in the next two days. The system is now centered in the northwestern Caribbean between Honduras and Cuba.

However, NHC predicts the storm will track somewhere between New Orleans and the Florida Panhandle. While it is no immediate threat to Texas, residents should keep an eye on developments in the next few days, they say.

NHC Graphics

*Two-day outlook gives system a 40% chance of development.*

*Seven-day outlook gives the system an 80% chance.*

Favorable Environmental Conditions

NHC predicts the track will bend east after crossing between the Yucatan and the western tip of Cuba.

“Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure,” they say. “Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days…”

Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this feature.

Later this week, the system should move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, and “interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the progress of this system.”

*Potential system in center of frame could be pulled north and east by an exiting low-pressure system that now stretches from West Texas to New England* *near top of frame.*

Local Impacts Seen as Limited As of Now

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, said, “The system should lift northward over the Gulf of Mexico by mid to late week. A large upper level low over the southern plains will help draw the tropical system north of northeast toward the US Gulf coast.”

Lindner added that most models are in agreement at this point which makes confidence fairly high. However, he also said, “There may be some small differences in the ultimate track toward the US Gulf coast.”

He concluded, “Guidance also suggests this will be a large tropical system which is capable of moving huge amounts of water in the Gulf.”

“With the current higher than normal fall lunar tides in place, there is some potential for elevated tides along the Texas coast late this week, even for a tropical system passing well to our east.”

Year-to-Date Hurricane Season Behind Average

So far, we have had seven named storms this year:

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Francine
Gordon

If this system turns into a named storm, it will become Helene.

Everyone predicted a severe hurricane season this year, but so far, it has not materialized. On average, we have our tenth named storm by now. See below.

*From National Hurricane Center Climatology Page*

All last week, forecasters warned that this storm had a chance of development. And on most days, the chances increased. Keep your eye on this one!

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/22/24

2581 Days since Hurricane Harvey