9/14/24 – Clearing of Beryl debris from Harris County creeks and channels by HCFCD/FEMA contractors continues more than two months after the storm that struck Houston on July 8, 2024.
The cleanup effort has advanced on two fronts: streets and channels. The City of Houston and Harris County precincts (in unincorporated areas) manage street cleanup. Harris County Flood Control District manages the creeks and channels.
I previously reported about the City’s efforts and its debris-tracker website. I also published a story about how to report problems discovered in streams and ditches.
But I really haven’t shown the latter crews in action.
HCFCD/FEMA Crew Clearing Backland Gully
Chris Bloch, a local flood activist, rode along with some Harris County Flood Control Distict/FEMA contractors and grabbed these photos of the equipment they are using. Bloch took the pictures below on Backland Gully in Kings Point.
A marsh buggy, also known as an amphibious excavator, grabs onto tree blocking the channel and……drags it out of creek.
The contractor is clearing trees from numerous channels in the Kingwood Area. His company is also working Bens Branch, Bear Branch, the lowest reach of Taylor Gully, White Oak Creek, Green Tree Ditch, Mills Branch, Caney Creek and more.
The contractor estimated his company has removed 2,000 tons of debris so far, but the number changes hourly.
Immensity of Job
Last week, they finished the area upstream of the Tree Lane Bridge on Bear Branch. But the equipment they used there is too small to handle the size and volume of trees that fell downstream from the bridge given the depth of the channel.
They have their work cut out for them.
See examples below. I took all six photos on 9/13/24 within a quarter mile stretch of Bens Branch downstream from Tree Lane.
Such blockages can catch other debris being swept downstream in storms and back water up, flooding homes.
HCFCD maintains 2500 miles of ditches, bayous and streams. If a quarter mile segment of one looks this bad, one can only imagine how long it will take to finish the job.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/14/24
2573 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 68 since Beryl
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/20240913-Marsh-Buggy-2.jpg?fit=1100%2C676&ssl=16761100adminadmin2024-09-14 16:45:462024-09-14 16:48:25Clearing of Beryl Debris from Creeks and Channels Continues
Northpark Drive construction crews have finished placing rebar in a 1000 foot long stretch on both sides of the entrance to Kings Mill. They will begin pouring concrete there on Monday, 9/16/24 at 3 AM. Concrete trucks will enter and leave the construction zone approximately every six minutes.
Because workers will spread the concrete next to the inbound lanes, traffic will be reduced to one lane until approximately 1 PM. However, both inbound lanes should open for the evening rush hour.
Rebar and forms ready for pour at 3AM Monday. Traffic on right will narrow to one lane to protect workers spreading the concrete.Looking west from Kings Mill Entrance at rebar ready for concrete.
At this time, the construction team has scheduled additional concrete pours for 9/20, 9/27, and 10/1; times and dates subject to change.
Project managers evaluated all-night and all-weekend scenarios for pouring the concrete, but encountered legal restrictions having to do with worker safety and/or cost.
Back-and-Forth Paving Plan
The general plan is for crews to pour one side of one stretch of the road while prepping the other. After they finish the new middle lanes, the old outer lanes will be demolished one side at a time. They will reroute traffic to the middle lanes will reconstructing the old lanes.
At this point, neither inbound nor outbound traffic will be shut down completely, though it will narrow to one lane on the side where concrete is being poured.
Looking east at entire stretch of rebar on right. The next pour will be on other side of road.
More Visible Progress
Ralph De Leon, the project manager, emphasized that most of the wrinkles that the project experienced in the last year have been ironed out at this point. However, one small snag remains re: a switch of fire hydrants and buildings with commercial sprinkler systems on the north side of Northpark.
Several companies and a church are migrating to the City of Houston water system, and it’s apparently taking longer than expected for the City’s billing and meter installation department to catch up with the new infrastructure installation. Worst case: some businesses may get free water for a month or so.
De Leon asked for patience. “People don’t see all the work that’s going on underground, but that’s the real heavy part of the lift,” he said. “People will begin to see a lot more progress on Monday. The above-ground ‘flat work’ that everyone sees goes much faster.”
Major Steps After This
The area between the Diversion Ditch and Russell Palmer Road will be paved as part of Phase II, which includes everything up to and a little bit past Woodland Hills Drive.
Paving crews will next complete the new lanes between Russell Palmer and 494.
Looking NE across 494 and Northpark (right). First junction box has just been buried in lower left. Drainage team must next bore under 494 and railroad tracks.
Next, paving crews will turn their attention to 494.
Loop 494 will get the same alternate side of the road treatment in sections until finished.
Finally, crews will begin work west to US59.
NW corner of Northpark and Loop 494, looking west toward 59
The entry ponds will likely be among the last things completed.
In my last post, I alluded to a total shutdown of Northpark while UnionPacific installed new beds and track across the road. Originally scheduled for sometime in October or November, that will now happen in January or February.
It’s too early to tell when bridge construction over 494 will commence.
For More Information
For schematic diagrams of the paving plan, click here.
As paving moves east to west, crossovers will need to close temporarily. To see the schedule, click here.
9/12/24 – You would think that as more water flows into a ditch, the area under bridges would get larger. But Chris Bloch, a retired Kingwood engineer with an eye for details that affect flooding, made some startling discoveries recently about the areas under four bridges over the Kingwood Diversion Ditch.
Flow areas under two bridges get smaller as you go downstream and flow volume increases.
They constrict flow 30-40% compared to the Kingwood Drive Bridge.
This helps explain flooding problems adjacent to the ditch, he says. Another engineer I interviewed for this article expressed shock. He said, “That can’t be. It’s bewildering.”
The Kingwood Diversion Ditch branches off Bens Branch just north of Northpark Drive by Flowers of Kingwood. Bridges span the ditch in four places: Northpark Drive, Kingwood Drive, Walnut Lane and Deer Springs.
The ditch runs north to south and helps drain the western third of Kingwood. It crosses under Kingwood Drive by the Fire Station. It then continues south to Deer Ridge Park, before turning and outfalling into the San Jacinto West Fork at River Grove Park. See the map below.
Kingwood Diversion Ditch got its name because it diverts water that would otherwise go down Bens Branch. It gives that stormwater an alternate route to the West Fork at bottom of frame.
Not only does the Diversion Ditch carry a percentage of the water from Bens Bench, it also drains streets in several subdivisions along its way to the river.
More and more stormwater empties into it as you move south. But look at the square footage of the areas under the bridges.
Bridge
Opening in SqFt
Northpark
720.8
Kingwood Drive
1,136.5
Walnut Lane
809.7
Deer Springs
689.0
From Kingwood Drive south, the bridge “flow areas” get smaller by approximately 30% and then 40% compared to Kingwood Drive.
Flow area is the size of the opening under the bridge available to convey floodwater without it coming up over the bridge deck.
Pictures of Bridges from Upstream to Down
Here’s what the bridges look like starting upstream, in the same order as the table above. I took all these photos on 9/11/24.
To calculate the square footages, Bloch took physical measurements of depth every two feet from one side of each bridge to the other.
Kingwood Diversion Ditch Bridge at Northpark Drive, looking south.Kingwood Diversion Ditch Bridge at Kingwood Drive, looking NorthKingwood Diversion Ditch Bridge at Walnut Lane looking N, approximately 30% less than Kingwood DriveKingwood Diversion Ditch Bridge at Deer Springs, approximately 40% less than Kingwood Drive.
No wonder many homes and businesses have flooded from the Diversion Ditch!
Flow Area vs. Flow Rates
Of course, flow areas don’t tell the total story, just a large portion of it. Engineers also consider flow rates. But calculating flow rates is more difficult than calculating flow areas.
When water backs up behind a bridge, it can increase pressure which forces more water under, over and around the bridge…faster. Think of spray from a garden hose when you pinch the nozzle with your thumb.
Two problems though:
Water is still backing up to some degree.
The higher pressure causes jetting under the bridge that increases erosion.
For a spectacular example of the damage that jetting can do, look at the Tree Lane Bridge over Bens Branch, slightly east of the Diversion Ditch.
Damage to Tree Lane Bridge over Bens Branch caused by jetting.Photo taken before current repair job started.After repairs started. Note severe erosion downstream from bridge threatening power line corridor. Also note how floodwater downcut underneath 10 inch water line that was once buried.
Engineers perform miracles for us everyday. But sometimes, even their best efforts are no match for Mother Nature when she straps on her Stetson and six shooters. That’s why careful planning, generous safety margins, and coordination between upstream and downstream interests are so crucial.
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/KW-Div-Ditch-Bridges-copy.jpg?fit=1100%2C746&ssl=17461100adminadmin2024-09-12 20:47:002024-09-12 21:07:21Bewildering Size of Areas under Diversion-Ditch Bridges
9/11/2024 4 PM CDT – Hurricane Francine is making landfall in southeastern Louisiana.
Although most of my readers live in the Houston area, many have friends and relatives living in Louisiana. This post goes out to them.
Francine Making Landfall in Louisiana
At 3:30 PM on 9/11/24
Stats
According to the National Hurricane Center, at 4 PM CDT, Francine’s eyewall was nearing the Southern Louisiana coast with hurricane force winds.
Maximum sustained winds were measured at 100 mph.
Minimum central pressure was 28.79.
40 Miles SSW of Morgan City
100 Miles WSW of New Orleans
Expected Rainfall: 4-8 inches with local amounts to 12 inches across Southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
Storm surge: 3-10 feet
Eyewall diameter: 40 nautical miles
Movement to the NE at 17 MPH
Will become extra-tropical cyclone by Friday
Life threatening surf and rip currents
Tornadoes possible.
Graphics
Remembering Another 9/11
Thoughts and prayers for all our neighbors in Louisiana. Just two months ago, we saw what Beryl’s 80 MPH winds did to the Houston area. These winds are 20 MPH faster.
Thoughts and prayers also for all the victims of the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001. I had clients who worked near the top floors of the World Trade Center. I will never forget the sickening feeling as the towers fell, knowing they didn’t make it out alive.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/11/24
8401 Days since the Twin Towers
2570 since Hurricane Harvey
65 since Beryl
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Francine-Just-Before-Landfall.jpg?fit=1000%2C1000&ssl=110001000adminadmin2024-09-11 16:26:242024-09-11 16:26:24Francine Making Landfall in Louisiana
9/10/24 – Update: At 7 PM, the National Hurricane Center announced that Francine became a hurricane with sustained winds of 75 MPH and higher gusts. By 10:20, hurricane hunter aircraft found sustained winds of 85 MPH with central pressure of 979 mb. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. Other details have not changed much since 4PM. See below.
The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 4 PM update shows Tropical Storm Francine taking aim for Louisiana. Its impacts will likely diminish in the Houston area. However, tropical storm warnings and watches now extend past Louisiana into Mississippi and Alabama, as the forecast track shifts farther east.
Francine at 3:46 PM CDT, 9/10/24
Francine Winds and Forward Speed
At 4 PM, Francine still packed 65 MPH winds with higher gusts. But NHC expects it to reach hurricane strength tonight. By convention, storms become hurricanes at 74 MPH.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Sabine Pass eastward to Grand Isle. NHC forecasts that Francine could reach 80 knots/92 MPH at landfall in central Louisiana. If accurate, that would put it just shy of a Category 2 hurricane.
Hurricane hunter aircraft found that pressure in the central core had dropped to 987 mb. The storm has become better organized with increased banding.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. To put that in perspective, Beaumont is 175 miles from Baton Rouge, which is in central Louisiana.
Two NHC graphics depict the probability of damaging winds reaching the Houston area. The first shows the north Houston area has a 5-10 percent chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds.
The second shows we have a zero percent chance of experiencing hurricane force winds.
Track
According to NHC, Francine has made a turn toward the northeast and increased its forward motion to 10+ MPH. It should reach the central Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening. A continued northeastward motion and a faster forward speed are expected tonight and Wednesday.
Surge
We still can expect storm surge in coast areas all the way from Freeport to the Florida Panhandle.
With that comes the associated risk of rip currents.
Rainfall
Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding in those locations.
However, Jeff Linder, Harris County’s meteorologist less than an inch of rain in the Lake Houston Area.
We barely have a chance for flash flooding. And significant rainfall accumulations will be concentrated east of Texas.
5-Day Accumulated Rainfall Predictions from the National Weather Service
While the Lake Houston Area may be spared the storm’s worst effects, the Mississippi Valley won’t. NHC predicts significant flooding for that area.
To put that in perspective, during the last 30 years, we usually have had 10 named storms by September 4 and 11 by September 14. So despite early dire warnings, this season has been less severe than normal.
The 2017 hurricane season should remind us all that it only takes one storm to change lives forever. Pray for our neighbors to the east. And remain vigilant.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/10/24
2569 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 69 since Beryl
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/211929.png?fit=897%2C738&ssl=1738897adminadmin2024-09-10 16:41:512024-09-10 22:48:12Latest NHC Forecasts Show Francine Aiming for Louisiana
9/9/24 – 7 PM update – Francine is strengthening faster than expected. Current sustained winds are 65 MPH and NHC predicts the storm will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall.The post below was written at 2PM this afternoon.
This morning Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 intensified and formed a center of circulation. With winds currently at 60 MPH, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) named it Tropical Storm Francine. NHC expects it to intensify into a hurricane tomorrow. Francine’s current predicted track will take it inland over Louisiana.
At the moment, models suggest the worst of the storm will miss Houston to the south and the east.
At 1 PM CDT, TS Francine was still between Brownsville, TX and the Yucatan.
Watches and Warnings Now In Effect
As of Monday at 2 PM CDT, NHC had issued the following watches and warnings:
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
Vermilion Bay
Lake Maurepas
Lake Pontchartrain
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
East of High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana
East of Grand Isle to Mouth of the Pearl River
Lake Pontchartrain
Lake Maurepas
Likely Track
The western edge of the cone of uncertainty extends westward to far east Texas.
Note, however, that the cone does not indicate the width of the storm. It simply means that the center of the storm has an equal chance of passing over every point within the cone. Because the storm is currently 160 miles wide, if Francine made landfall toward the western edge of the cone, the Houston area could see significant impacts.
Still, models agree that the storm will likely make landfall in Louisiana.
Storm Surge
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to flood from rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay…5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA…4-7 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA…3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk-reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees.
Winds Approaching 86 MPH
Francine is moving at 5 MPH. NHC expects winds to peak at 75 knots (86 MPH) within 48 hours. That would make Francine a Category 1 Hurricane. Cat 1 ranges from 74 to 95 MPH.
The highest winds will likely focus on southern Louisiana.
Tropical storm force winds could be felt in the Houston area as early as late tomorrow afternoon into evening.
However, the most likely arrival times will be approximately 12 hours earlier.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, feels, “There is a 30-50% chance of TS force winds on Wednesday along the upper Texas coast and a 10-20% chance of tropical-storm-force winds across the metro-Houston area.”
“Squalls and bands of rain will begin to move into the outer coastal waters on Tuesday and spread toward the coast. Some of the activity is likely to impact the coastal counties Tuesday night into Wednesday depending on the exact track.”
“Hurricane conditions may graze our outer coastal waters Wednesday afternoon, but at this time the probability of sustained hurricane force winds along the upper Texas coast is generally 5-10% from roughly Freeport to Sabine Pass,” said Lindner.
Rainfall and Flooding
According to NHC, Francine will bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding to portions of the southernmost Texas coast, the Upper Texas Coast, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning. A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning.
Lindner predicts, “Rainfall amounts over SE TX have generally been pulled back some with the eastward track shifts and it is likely the core of heaviest rainfall will remain offshore. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected along the coast with amounts of generally less than an inch inland of US 59.”
Whew. Keep your fingers crossed and hope that Francine stays south of us. We haven’t even finished cleanup from Beryl yet.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/9/24 at 2PM
2568 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 63 since Beryl
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/154133_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2024-09-09 14:29:582024-09-09 19:58:07TS Francine Will Now Likely Strike East of Houston
9/8/24 – At 4 PM, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 (PTC 6). PTC 6 is currently an elongated area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
PTC 6 is currently trying to organize over the Bay of Campeche.Satellite photo from Sept. 8, 2024, at 3 PM CDT.
Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday.
Tropical storm force winds should reach the Houston area by Tuesday night. And the system should become a hurricane by Wednesday afternoon. (See graphics below.)
Tropical-storm-force winds already extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), primarily west of the center.
Wind-Speed Classifications
Tropical cyclones rotate counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere. They are classified as follows:
Tropical Depression: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph (33 knots) or less.
Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph (34 to 63 knots).
Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 knots) or higher.
Major Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph (96 knots) or higher, corresponding to a Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Models suggest the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 should become well defined by tomorrow afternoon. Until then, the track forecast remains very uncertain.
Life-Threatening Storm Surge
According to the NHC, it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts. However, NHC warns that the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are increasing for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines beginning Tuesday night.
Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area on Monday, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of flash flooding.
Graphics for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6
CenterPoint Warning
At 2:45 CDT, CenterPoint Energy texted warnings to customers. “We continue to monitor and prepare for a potential tropical system in the Gulf which may impact the Greater Houston area over the next few days.”
The text continued, “We encourage you to prepare an emergency plan. Customers who depend on electricity for life-sustaining equipment are encouraged to make alternate arrangements for on-site backup capabilities or other alternatives in the event of loss of electric service. For safety tips, visit CenterPointEnergy.com/StormCenter.”
After Beryl, I purchased power system that can be charged by solar panels. I’m feeling pretty good about that purchase now.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/8/24based on information from NHC
2567 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/210159_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2024-09-08 16:40:542024-09-08 17:59:24NHC Issues Advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6
9/7/24 – For seven years, I have focused on ways to reduce flooding. But today, I’d like to discuss a big way not to reduce flooding – by deferring maintenance.
Deferring Maintenance: A Bad Idea
One of the most common root causes of flooding that I see is delayed, deferred, overlooked and/or ignored maintenance. You wouldn’t buy a new car and not maintain it. It’s the same way with flood control. But that’s what we’ve been doing.
If you build a channel or a ditch, you should budget routine inspections, and periodic repairs and maintenance.
For a dramatic example, see the two photos below. As I was driving south on Loop 494 this afternoon, I saw a scene near East Memorial Drive that reminded me of a preventable flooding disaster in Porter back in 2018.
Local businesses flooded when the ditch below at the end of the road backed water up.
TxDOT improved the ditch that caused the flooding above. But guess what? The blockage is back. I took the picture below this afternoon.
Blocked ditch on Loop 494 and Memorial Drivein Porter, Montgomery County.
Mike Eberle, a business owner nearby who flooded back in 2018, dubbed this area the Porter Dam. Oops. Back where we started.
The ditch has silted in. And vegetation is growing up through the grate. Meanwhile, debris washed down the ditch and has blocked it even more. It’s only a matter of time before flooding recurs.
Will clearing the Porter Dam be high on TxDOT’s to-do list in the next five days? Probably not. Even though the rain predicted could exceed the amount that caused the flooding above.
Deferred Maintenance: A Problem Everywhere
Deferred maintenance is a huge problem everywhere, not just in Montgomery County or on TxDOT roads. And it’s not just vegetation management.
Erosion, when ignored, can run wild and threaten homes. In the case below, it was neglected so long that trees fell into the ditch and blocked it, backing water up.
Eroded ditch in Huffman. Erosion like this didn’t happen overnight.Eroding ditch in Liberty County has grown more than 80 feet in width in just 10 years and now threatens homes.
And wherever sediment accumulates, it can cause ditches to lose much of their ability to convey stormwater. Bens Branch, for instance, was down to a “2-year level-of-service” in places. That means, water would come out of the banks after a two-year rain. See the first picture below.
Bens Branch at Rocky Woods in January 2021 before start of clean-out project. Over the years, deferred maintenance had reduced the conveyance of the stream.
However, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) initiated a clean-out effort to restore the conveyance of Ben’s Branch from Northpark Drive to Kings Harbor. In this section alone, HCFCD removed more than 10,000 cubic yards of accumulated sediment.
Same area four months later after restoration. Greenish substance on banks is hydromulch.
Plea for Tax Increase to Improve Maintenance
In Harris County, HCFCD created this presentation on deferred maintenance for Commissioners Court consideration on 8/15/24. It makes the case for a potential tax increase which voters will be asked to approve on November 5.
Key points:
We have a huge amount of drainage infrastructure requiring regular maintenance.
Much of the infrastructure is nearing the end of its useful life (when it costs more to maintain).
And every year, we add more and more infrastructure requiring more maintenance.
But investment in maintenance has been flat over time (see graph below).
Maintenance investment has lagged behind capital improvement spending by as much as 9 to 1.
Flood control is asking for an additional $110 million for its maintenance budget to help remedy these problems. Any increase in tax revenue would go to the HCFCD’s dedicated maintenance account. Those funds are marked specifically for maintenance efforts and support services, according to Emily Woodell, a department spokesperson.
Fool Me Twice?
I can support the HCFCD request. But before I vote for it, I want to see language in the proposal that guarantees it won’t all be spent somewhere else. I’d also like to see language that revokes the tax increase if it is. Or if:
Maintenance is delayed here longer than anywhere else.
Social factors, not flood risk, determine the distribution of dollars.
County leaders try to redefine the commonly accepted, dictionary meanings of terms like “equity” or “worst.”
We’ve been burned by certain commissioners who flagrantly renege on promises made in Commissioners Court. I won’t let that happen again. As the old saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
I intend to read this proposition very, very closely. And when I step into the voting booth, I won’t be hoping for the best. I’ll be fearing how I’ll get screwed again, exactly like we did with the 2018 and 2022 Bonds.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/7/24
2566 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/CommonsErosion07-copy.jpg?fit=1500%2C1000&ssl=110001500adminadmin2024-09-07 20:33:522024-09-20 12:21:03How NOT to Reduce Flooding: Deferring Maintenance
9/6/24 – Between yesterday and today, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the chances of tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico for next week. Yesterday, NHC gave that orange area a 10% chance of development in the next seven days. Earlier this afternoon, they updated that to 40%. And by this evening, they upgraded it again to 50%.
Also, the National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a gale watch for offshore waters tomorrow. And NWS predicts another 4-10 inches of rain for the Houston area next week.
Tropical Activity Heating Up
According to the National Hurricane Center, “A tropical wave located over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, where it could then begin to interact with a frontal boundary. A tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.”
Tropical outlook as of 1:50 PM EDT, 9/6/24
Here’s what those two areas currently look like on a satellite photo.
Tropics at 3:30PM CDT on 9/6/24
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “A tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean Sea and the surface low over the NW Gulf will merge over the western Gulf going into early next week. As high pressure over the plains moves eastward the steering flow will turn to the south and begin to lift whatever is in the western Gulf northward toward the TX coast.”
Another 4-10 Inches of Rain Predicted for Next Week
Lindner predicts increasing moisture late Monday with a much more significant surge of moisture coming into the area starting on Tuesday. Regardless of tropical formation, rains will spread northward from the Gulf into the Houston area. Heavy rainfall looks possible into the middle of next week.
The National Weather Service predicts accumulations in the next seven days could range from 4-10 inches in the Houston region. The larger accumulations will be near the coast. Rainfall totals offshore could range up to 20 inches!
Compare dark to light green peaks in bottom graph.
High Winds, Gale Watch Saturday
The National Weather Service has issued a gale watch for Saturday morning through evening as high pressure pushes the moisture currently over us to the south and then east.
Ironically, this will usher in drier weather for Sunday, but it will make boating dangerous on Saturday. North winds will average 25-35 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Seas will average 9-11 feet.
Peak of Hurricane Season Just Days Away
Earlier this year, experts predicted an extremely active hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. But so far, we’ve had only five named storms.
And the peak of hurricane season occurs on September 10 with the most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October.
Best to bookmark the National Hurricane Center home page and check it daily for the next few weeks. This is the time of year when NHC updates its site every few hours. So, they have the most up-to-date forecasts and they are the acknowledged source of definitive information about tropical systems.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/6/2024
2565 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/two_atl_7d0.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2024-09-06 16:46:352024-09-06 18:37:46Chances of Tropical Formation in Gulf Increasing for Next Week
9/5/2024 – The Congressional Budget Office has produced a series of reports that provides a wealth of flood data.
Economist Evan Herrnstadt, Ph.D., was interviewed today in a First Street Foundation webinar. He has produced an impressive, data-packed series of reports on different aspects of flooding for public-policy makers. Herrnstadt is the Principal Analyst in the Microeconomic Studies Division of the Congressional Budget Office.
Nine Studies Examine Financial, Demographic Impacts of Flooding
To make his team’s work easier to find and review, I’ve posted their studies on the Reports Page of ReduceFlooding.com under a new Congressional Budget Office Tab. Below are links to and one sentence descriptions for each of the nine reports.
Climate Work provides an overview of several different studies and presents key findings. It’s a good starting point.
Effects of Flood Damage on the Subsidy Cost of Federally Backed Mortgages. Uses data on mortgages and expected flood damage for each residential property in the United States to examine how much flood damage is expected to increase the cost of federally backed mortgages (referred to as the subsidy cost).
Flood Insurance in Communities at Risk of Flooding. Examines how properties at risk of flooding share the cost of NFIP policies across communities with different economic and demographic characteristics.
Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and Homeowner’s Insurance. Analyzes recent changes in property insurance markets and considers alternative insurance products as well as policy approaches to increase the availability and affordability of insurance for homeowners and renters.
Communities at Risk of Flooding. Examines how projected flood risk varies across communities with different economic and demographic characteristics in two multiyear projection periods, one centered on 2020 and the other centered on 2050.
The wealth of flood data in these reports is national, not local. Regardless, good economists have a way of clearing out the cobwebs. And Herrnstadt clearly knows how to put things in perspective. I will refer to these reports from time to time in the future.
For now, let me just quote a couple eye-bulging stats from the last report. “Flood Damage avoided by Potential Spending on Property-Level Adaptations” looks at buyouts and home elevations. When looking at 1.3 million homes, Herrnstadt found that avoided costs averaged $2.69 for every $1 invested. If those projects were all completed, they would cost a total of $193 billion and prevent $519 billion of expected damages during the next 30 years.
In extreme cases, Herrnstadt found the payback ratio could be 6 to 1. And that doesn’t even include “pain and suffering” costs associated with flood damage.
This data shows how we could be saving hundreds of billions of dollars. These reports are literally gold mines of data.
For the First Street Foundation’s interview with Herrnstadt, see this YouTube video.
Learn more about the purpose and methodologies of the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office here.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/5/24
2564 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Avoid-Damage-Per-Dollar-Spent.png?fit=2108%2C1596&ssl=115962108adminadmin2024-09-05 18:41:302024-09-06 09:06:21Congressional Budget Office Provides Wealth of Flood Data
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