10/5/24 – Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the Bay of Campeche. Within hours this morning, the National Hurricane Center upgraded an area of low pressure to a tropical depression and then again to a tropical storm.
At this time, NHC predicts it will move toward the west coast of Florida and strengthen to or near MAJOR hurricane strength.
Milton currently does not affect the upper Texas coast, nor is it expected to, except for some welcome cloudiness.
Graphic from 10 AM CDT today BEFORE depression strengthened into TS Milton.NHC will update its graphics at 4 PM CDT.
Here’s what the storm looked like from a satellite: slight rotation at the left and the beginning of banding.
As of 1:21 Houston time
Forecast
At 12:25 PM CDT, NHC said satellite data indicated that the depression had strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or so. After that, a trough moving southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed.
On the current track, Milton will cross the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Models agree on the track, but not the forward speed, so timing could vary. NHC reminds residents not to focus on the exact track because the average 4-day track error is about 150 miles.
Milton is within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. With those conditions, NHC expects rapid strengthening over the next few days. The rate of strengthening should increase after an inner core forms in the next 12 to 24 hours. NHC forecasts rapid intensification after 36 hours.
The official forecast shows the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Models are in good consensus on this point. But some suggest Milton will grow even stronger.
Regardless, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week.
Key Messages
If you have friends, relatives, or travel plans in the affected area, remember these key points.
Milton will quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week.
There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials. Check the NHC site regularly for updates.
Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton. Expect heavy rainfall more directly related to the system by later Tuesday through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
Major Hurricane Count So Far this Season
In an average hurricane season, the Atlantic basin normally sees three major hurricanes. And so far, we’ve had three.
Beryl – 160 MPH
Helene – 140 MPH
Kirk – 120 MPH
But usually, we don’t get the third until the end of October – October 28th to be exact. Four at the beginning of October is slightly unusual. And we still have almost two months left in this season.
Maybe this will be an extreme season after all.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/5/24
2594 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/two_atl_7d0.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2024-10-05 13:57:592024-10-05 13:58:00Tropical Storm Milton Forms in Gulf; Expected to Become Major Hurricane
10/04/24 – At 3 AM this morning, contractors narrowed outbound traffic down to one lane to begin pouring more Northpark concrete west of the entrance to Kings Mill.
It wasn’t the first pour in the two-mile-long project designed to create an all-weather evacuation route from Kingwood. And it won’t be the last. But together with other improvements, one can finally start to see the finished project taking shape.
The pour continued until early afternoon. Elsewhere along Northpark, one could see other workers installing asphalt underlayment for future concrete pours and working on lateral drainage where it ties into culverts down the center of the road.
Next Steps
Contractors are also getting ready to bore under the UnionPacific Railroad Tracks, Loop 494 and Northpark itself. The bore(s) will connect via a series of junction boxes to “Ditch One” behind Public Storage and Dunkin’ Donuts.
From there, the ditch will carry excess stormwater to Ben’s Branch and the Kingwood Diversion Ditch.
Pictures Taken 10/4/24
I took the following pictures of more Northpark concrete being poured around 10 AM this morning.
Grayish areas in center show partially dried and freshly poured concrete from this morning.New concrete now extends west to QuickQuack Car Wash from Kings Mill entrance in both directions.Looking E toward Russell Palmer. Another concrete truck pulls up to unload as men spread and smooth previous loads.Looking W. Fresh asphalt extending west from Russell Palmer will become the base for the next rounds of concrete.
Plans also call for widening 494. It too will become three lanes in each direction. See below.
Looking W toward entry ponds and US59. Note the road bed prep next to the Shell Station and Loop 494.
More Northpark concrete should be poured next Friday – 10/11/24. Again, it will happen between approximately 3 AM and 1 PM and should involve the closure of at least one lane.
Also of note: on the last weekend of October, there will be a full closure of Northpark at the Russel Palmer intersection to place paving across the intersection. This will begin on Friday and completely close the intersection until Monday morning 5AM. Detours will be in place for Russel Palmer traffic.
10/3/24 – For those who missed the meeting in Atascocita earlier this week, Commissioner Tom Ramsey, PE, has scheduled another meeting to explain the thinking behind Harris County Flood Control District’s Proposition A on the November ballot. The tax meeting will be on October 16 between 6:00 PM and 7:30 PM.
The venue will be the Kingwood Community Center, 4102 Rustic Woods Drive, Kingwood, TX 77345. See poster below.
…we haven’t yet gotten much help to reduce flooding from Harris County.
Flooding Vs. Funding
These two charts tell the story.
Chart showing feet above flood stage of 33 gages of misc. bayous in Harris County during Harvey.Humble/Kingwood area at far left.San Jacinto Watershed ranks 13th out of 23 watersheds despite being the county’s largest.
Then the same thing happened with the 2022 bond. The lone Republican precinct (which includes Kingwood) was promised a minimum of $220 million by Democratic commissioners. Then they changed the deal after the election. Again. And shortchanged the lone Republican precinct by almost $50 million.
We’re constantly adding to inventory that needs maintenance
Aging assets require more maintenance
Years ago, Commissioners looted HCFCD funds for the Hospital District
HCFCD could do a better job with more maintenance dollars.
On the other hand, it’s also true that:
The amount of the increase is 63%.
The publicity is all about maintenance. But the ballot language includes operations.
The proposition does not include any commitments about when, where or on what the money will be spent.
There’s nothing to preclude another switcheroo.
Since announcing the completion of Project Brays in May 2022, HCFCD has spent 2.5X more money on Brays Bayou than it has on the entire San Jacinto River Watershed. That’s through the end of 2Q2024 ($26.5 million vs. $10.5 million).
By the way, Democratic Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis lives in the Brays Bayou Watershed.
Commissioner Ramsey is a fair and honest man. He fights hard for us in every Commissioner’s Court meeting. He’s just outnumbered.
I will see you at the tax meeting. Come with an open mind.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/3/24
2592 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Flood-Control-Prop-A-Flyer-UPDATE.jpg?fit=1545%2C2000&ssl=120001545adminadmin2024-10-03 18:44:292024-10-03 18:44:30Save the Date: HCFCD Tax Meeting Scheduled for Kingwood on Oct. 16
10/2/24 – The Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ 10 has announced that it will reduce Northpark Drive outbound traffic to one lane Friday (10/4/24) from about 3AM to 1PM. Contractors will be pouring concrete next to existing lanes. Crews need part of one lane for both construction work and their safety.
Men will spread and smooth new concrete from the old roadway as they previously did in eastbound lanes two weeks ago.
The work will take place between Loop 494 and Russell Palmer Road. Currently crews are preparing the base with asphalt. They should be ready to create a rebar grid on all of part of the asphalt areas beginning tomorrow.
Another concrete pour is scheduled for the following Friday, 10/11/24, weather permitting.
Pictures of Progress
Below are pictures of the project’s progress since my last post in mid-September.
Looking ESE toward Russell Palmer intersection in upper left. Note new asphalt between inbound and outbound lanes. Looking WSW. Note: concrete for part of one westbound lane has already been poured to roughly Italiano’s.Looking at previous pours and area where new pour will extend past Kings Mill Entrance.Looking W.Area in front of Kings Mill entrance has already been completed on south side. Workers are removing forms. Forms have already been installed over asphalt on north side, but no rebar yet. Looking W toward 59 in background. More drainage work is underway on both north and south sides of Norpark.Looking W toward Russell Palmer from in front of Calvary Churchat new blacktop.Looking W at workers laying asphalt on both north and south sides of median over the drainage culverts.
Remember: the road will widen inward, not outward except near the bridge.
Visible Progress Accelerating
Contractors have completed most, but not all, of the underground drainage work at this point. They still have to:
Complete drainage from Loop 494 to US59
Build surface lanes that will parallel the new bridge over Loop 494.
Tunnel under the railroad tracks to install drainage that will convey stormwater from entry ponds to “Ditch One” behind the businesses that line the north side of Northpark.
Connect all the pieces of the drainage system.
But the lion’s share of underground work – the most difficult part of road construction – has finished.
Now contractors are focused on pavement that people can actually see. And it’s moving along rapidly thanks to cooperative weather.
Before then, though, contractors are returning dirt to the site that had been excavated and stored temporarily during installation of the culverts. They will then prepare the raised areas for future concrete pours by installing a base of asphalt and a grid of rebar.
The long-term vision for the thoroughfare is to create an all-weather access road that will facilitate both evacuation and growth. The six lanes will have the width of freeway lanes. A bridge will carry those six lanes of traffic over Loop 494. And four additional surface turn lanes will be built near the bridge. They will let traffic turn left and right from each of the four directions.
The extra runoff will be stored in stormwater retention basins that bracket the expansion project at 59.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/20241002-DJI_20241002161256_0915_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2024-10-02 18:41:132024-10-02 18:54:33Northpark Reduced to One Outbound Lane Friday Morning
10/1/24 – Harris County is proposing tax increases four times greater than the rate of inflation in the U.S. The combined tax increase in the last two years is almost 30% while the rate of inflation in the US for 2023 and 2024 (estimated) is 7%. When looking strictly at Houston, inflation is slightly lower – about 6%.
The tax increases proposed by the Democrat-controlled Commissioners Court will fall most heavily on the low-to-middle income homeowners who can least afford them. And it’s unclear whether more affluent homeowners will actually see any benefit from them.
How Did We Get to 30%?
Bill King published an article today detailing the components of the 30% tax increase he computed for 2023 and 2024 combined. King added increases in tax rates and appraised values to compute total tax increases.
Said King, “Officials like to talk about tax rates but ignore appraised values, which for many years have been steadily moving higher. This allows elected officials to claim that they are holding taxes steady or, in this case, mislead taxpayers that an increase is not as dramatic as it actually is.”
According to King, Harris County Appraisal District notified Commissioners Court in advance of setting the new tax rates that appraised values would increase 9.3% in 2023 and 4.48% in 2024.
King multiplied the higher tax rates for various county departments times the appraisal-value increases both last year and this. The calculations included the County budget plus three other special entities: the Hospital District, Port Authority and Flood Control District. Flood Control wants a 64.79% increase for operations and maintenance this year alone.
King meticulously documents his calculations and sources.
“When added together, the taxes for the average homeowner will increase in just two years by 29.5% ($1062 → $1,379).“
Bill King
That’s roughly 4 times the rate of U.S. inflation (7%) for 2 years and 5 times the rate of inflation in Houston (6%).
Said King, “The total levy for all four entities has gone from slightly under $3.1 billion in 2022 to nearly $4 billion for this year, a staggering 28.7% increase in the overall tax burden from the County in just two years.” And that doesn’t even include the money the county has siphoned from the Toll Road Authority.
King, who also studies population trends, warned that, “In the last decade, Harris County’s net domestic migration has been a negative 200,000. I suspect these massive tax increases will send more running for the exits.”
We have a huge amount of drainage infrastructure requiring regular maintenance.
Much of the infrastructure is nearing the end of its useful life (when it costs more to maintain).
And every year, we add more and more infrastructure requiring more maintenance.
But investment in maintenance has been flat over time (see graph below).
Maintenance investment has lagged behind capital improvement spending by as much as 9 to 1.
Unfortunately, even though this is being pitched as a maintenance tax, ballot text doesn’t limit spending to maintenance. It’s for OPERATIONS and maintenance.
Harris County Flood Control District Proposition A says only, “APPROVING THE AD VALOREM TAX RATE OF $0.04897 PER $100 VALUATION IN HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT FOR THE CURRENT YEAR, A RATE THAT IS $0.01581 HIGHER PER $100 VALUATION THAN THE VOTER APPROVAL TAX RATE OF HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT, FOR THE PURPOSE OF OPERATING AND MAINTAINING THE DISTRICT’S FLOOD RISK REDUCTION INFRASTRUCTURE. LAST YEAR, THE AD VALOREM TAX RATE IN HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT WAS $0.03105 PER $100 VALUATION.”
Keep in mind that the 57% increase between $0.04897 and $0.03105 will be applied to higher appraised values bringing the total increase up to 64.79% increase calculated by King.
But just as troubling is the inclusion of operations and the absence of any detail about how, when, where or on what the money will be spent.
This has all the earmarks of a slush fund, in my opinion.
Harris County’s Commissioners have seen fit to move money around before and load up staff with patronage workers. Will they do it again?
Will Democrats use the money to maintain long-neglected ditches in Precinct 3, which reportedly has the highest number of maintenance requests in the county? Or, as with the flood bond, will they spend the money in their constituents’ neighborhoods?
Will they ignore the minimums they guaranteed to Precinct 3, as they did with the 2022 bond?
So many questions!
HCFCD is hosting a series of meetings around the county to “educate” voters about the so-called maintenance tax increase.
9/30/2024 – Most forecasters predicted the 2024 hurricane season would be a monster, based on high sea-surface temperatures, Accumulated Cyclone Energy and a developing La Niña. But so far, judging by the numbers, the season has been close to average.
I compiled the tables below through data on the National Hurricane Center archives and news reports.
2024 Hurricane Season Summary to Date
Through September 30
By This Date in Average Year
In 2024
Named Storms
10
11
Hurricanes
5
4
Major Hurricanes
2
2
30-Year Average for Climate
Based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).
Here’s how a season typically develops.
Beryl set a record this year. It was the earliest Cat 5 hurricane in recorded history. Otherwise, you can see that this season lines up with the averages for “number of storms” pretty well. Compared to the average for the last three decades, we’ve had:
One more named storm
One less hurricane
The same number of major hurricanes.
Here’s a breakdown on the storms so far this year.
2024-Storm Data Through September
Storm
Dates
Max Winds
TS Alberto
19-20 Jun
50
MH Beryl
28 Jun-9 Jul
165
TS Chris
30 Jun-1 Jul
45
H Debby
3-9 Aug
80
H Ernesto
12-20 Aug
100
H Francine
9-14 Sept
100
TS Gordon
13-15 Sept
45
MH Helene
24-29 Sept
140
H Isaac
25-? Sept
105
TS Joyce
27-30 Sept
50
TS Kirk
30 Sept – ?
*
*TS Kirk formed today and is still strengthening. Forecasts say it will likely become a hurricane by 10/1 and Cat 3 by 10/2.
Comparing the two tables above, you can see that we had:
Two storms in August compared to the normal four
Six storms in September compared to the normal four.
That raises the question, “Will be see a sudden burst of late season activity that fulfills the dire predictions for the season?”
Comparison to Predictions
Earlier this year, I ran several stories about three seasonal outlooks.
Colorado State University predicted a 50%+ increase over the 30-year average for each category (named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes).
TropicalStormRisk.com, a British website which has won insurance industry awards predicted that North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2024 would be more than 50% above the long-term average (1950-1923) and 30% above the average for the last three decades (1991-2020).
And as late as August 8, NOAA said we had a 90% chance of an above average hurricane season with:
17-20 named storms
8-13 hurricanes
4-7 major hurricanes
Of course, the season doesn’t end for two more months, but we’re already four months into it. And usually, by October, activity is tailing off.
Unless there’s a sudden burst late season activity, we will probably fall short of those dire estimates this year.
Of course, as Helene’s 600 mile swath of destruction just reminded us, it only takes one storm to make a bad year for you.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/30/2024
2589 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Hurricane-season-Year-to-Date-Thru-Sept-e1727739694954.png?fit=1100%2C276&ssl=12761100adminadmin2024-09-30 18:27:032024-09-30 18:55:402024 Hurricane Season YTD vs Average, Projections
9/29/24 – When talking about using the Lake Houston Dam to help control flooding, one often hears experts say, “That’s not a flood-control dam. That’s a water-supply dam.” So, what’s the difference? And why does it make a difference?
The purpose of the dam influences its design, operation and management. An insider familiar with the effort to add more gates to the Lake Houston Dam said last week that engineers at both Houston Public Works and the Coastal Water Authority have resisted trying to modify a water-supply dam for flood control.
This is not the only reason this project has taken so long to get off the ground. But it helps explain why new, higher capacity Lake Houston gates are just now going into final design – 2588 days after the storm that made the need abundantly clear.
To put that in perspective, 2588 days is almost twice the number of days that it took to win World War II.
Conflicting Purposes, Designs
The primary purpose of a flood-control dam is to reduce flood risk by controlling the flow of water downstream during heavy rains. They accomplish this by temporarily holding back the flow of water. They then release it later in a controlled fashion to smooth out peaks and reduce flood damage.
To mitigate flooding, flood-control dams:
Often have lower water levels under normal conditions to accommodate sudden influxes of water.
Have large spillways and gates to rapidly release water when needed.
Are designed with a large storage capacity relative to the expected flood volumes.
Are sometimes kept partially empty to ensure sufficient space for incoming floodwaters.
Have more robust construction to withstand sudden large inflows and outflows.
On the other hand, the primary purpose of water-supply dams is to store water for human consumption (drinking, bathing, irrigation, industry, etc.).
To ensure consistent supply, a water-supply dam:
Prioritizes a consistent water level to ensure a reliable supply of water throughout the year, even during droughts.
Is usually kept at higher levels.
Stores water over longer periods.
Is managed to ensure sufficient supply throughout the year, with a focus on maximizing storage before dry seasons.
In summary, a flood-control dam is designed and managed to mitigate floods by managing excess water. However, a water-supply dam aims to store water for human use.
In practice, these extremes aren’t quite as mutually exclusive as the terms might imply.
Seasonal Management and Its Alternatives
Seasonal management strategies can help bridge the gap between the two. For instance, operators often manage both types of dams seasonally so they have more storage space during rainy seasons when flood risk spikes.
The SJRA adopted a seasonal lake-lowering strategy for several years after Harvey. But because of political pushback from Lake Conroe residents, the strategy was abandoned after several years.
“Stop the Drop” protesters pack an SJRA board meeting in December 2019.
SJRA now uses another hybrid strategy called “active storm management.” “Active Storm Management” seeks to manage lake levels by releasing water based on real-time weather forecasts to manage reservoir levels more effectively.
Other operators use a similar strategy known as FIRO (Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations). Advanced forecasting models predict inflows and adjust dam releases preemptively.
Lake Houston, Lake Conroe Both Water-Supply Dams
Both Lake Conroe and Lake Houston are water-supply dams. But Lake Houston, built in the early 1950s, has a 3160-foot, fixed-height spillway with four small gates capable of releasing only 10,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) combined. Clearly, engineers prioritized consistent water level over flood mitigation when designing this dam. The small gates make it difficult and time consuming to release water before it reaches the level of the spillway.
According to the Houston Public Works Drinking Water Operations Group, Lake Houston supplies water to 2.2 million people.
Lake Conroe, built in 1973, has five large gates capable of releasing 150,000 CFS. It was designed as an alternate water supply for the City of Houston. The City financed its construction and owns two thirds of the water in the lake.
Lake Conroe has nothing comparable to the fixed-height spillway on Lake Houston.
3160-foot concrete and steel spillway on Lake Houston
Compared to spillway above, gates on Lake Houston can release only a small amount. But the spillway can release more than Lake Conroe.See below.It just can’t release that much before a storm.Lake Houston Dam during Harvey. The wall of water flowing out of the lake was 11 feet higher than the spillway.
During the peak of Harvey, an estimated 425,000 CFS went over the Lake Houston Spillway – 5 times the average flow of Niagara Falls.
In contrast, Lake Conroe released about 80,000 CFS from its gates during Harvey. So why the push to add more gates to Lake Houston?
Gates Key to Hybrid Strategy
Simple. Bigger gates are key to both water conservation and Active Storm Management. Right now, Lake Houston’s gates are so small that lowering the lake significantly can take days. During that time, storms can veer away.
That long lead time creates uncertainty that jeopardizes what Houston Public Works and the Coastal Water Authority see as their primary mission – providing water for 2.2 million people.
We just can’t create extra storage capacity in Lake Houston fast enough with the existing gates.
Why is Design Taking So Long?
But with more, larger gates, Lake Houston could release enough water in hours to create extra storage capacity. And operators would have confidence that water would not be wasted. So why are the gates taking so long?
Design of more gates for Lake Houston has just now started. Using Harvey as a starting point, we are now almost at twice the amount of time that it took to win World War II.
It’s hard to believe that if everyone agreed with the need for more flood gates, it would have taken this long to start design.
In that regard, I have heard of pushback from both Houston Public Works and Coastal Water Authority. The pushback had to do with the mission of the organizations: to supply water. They just didn’t want to risk wasting it in case we encountered drought.
But our two backup water sources (Lake Conroe and Lake Livingston) combined have 15 times the volume of Lake Houston. So the City probably won’t run short anytime soon.
Flood Mitigation Not In CWA Mission
The Coastal Water Authority, which is the City’s contract operator for Lake Houston, does not even mention “flooding” on its website. That’s right. CWA doesn’t mention the word in its mission statement, guiding principles, strategies, or tactics. They do, however, mention “pumps” 15 times on their Strategic-Plan page. That should give you some idea of their priorities: water supply.
Hopefully, Mayor John Whitmire’s recent appointment of former State Representative Dan Huberty to the Coastal Water Authority Board will help the CWA see Lake Houston from more than one perspective. Huberty has advocated for the gates since Harvey.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/29/24
2588 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/LakeHoustonDamDuringHarvey.jpg?fit=1500%2C968&ssl=19681500adminadmin2024-09-29 20:13:322024-09-29 20:23:55Flood-Control, Water-Supply Dam Differences Help Explain Delay on Lake Houston Gates
9/28/24 – Forecasters predicted a very active 2024 hurricane season. After a slow start, the map is really lighting up. Currently, we have three named storms in the Atlantic Basin:
Remnants of Hurricane Helene, which is now a post-tropical depression centered over Tennessee
Hurricane Isaac, which formed in the middle of the Atlantic without much notice while Helene was barreling toward Florida earlier this week
Tropical Storm Joyce, also in the mid-Atlantic
Still Brewing
None of those named storms is a threat to Houston. However, the map shows two other areas of concern. See below.
Red Area
That elongated red area in the tropical Atlantic a couple hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system. A tropical depression will likely form during the early or middle part of next week. The system should move toward the west and then northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
As of today, NHC lists formation chances for that red area as low (30%) in the next two days, but high (70%) in the next seven days.
Orange Area
Of greater concern for Texans, however, though is that orange area stretching from the northwestern Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico. An area of low pressure should form there within a couple of days. NHC says environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development thereafter. They also say that a tropical depression could form around the middle part of next week.
This system should move northwestward into the Gulf during the latter portion of next week. NHC warns that interests in and along the Gulf Coast should monitor its progress.
As of today, formation chance through 48 hours is zero. But it’s 50% within 7 days.
Will the Gulf Go 4 for 4?
Lest anyone forget, this area has already spawned two major hurricanes and a hurricane in the last three months – Beryl, Francine and Helene.
Beryl ramped up to a Category 5 before hitting Houston in July.
Francine slammed Louisiana as a Cat 2 in September
Helene made landfall in Florida as a Cat 4 just two days ago.
Sea surface temps in that area are still 1.8 to 5.4 Fahrenheit above normal for this time of year (1-3º C).
So, don’t let your guard down.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/28/24
2587 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/two_atl_7d0-3.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2024-09-28 13:52:242024-09-28 14:06:39Three Named Storms in Atlantic Basin With Two More Brewing
9/27/24 – Hurricane Helene roared ashore last night and by noon today had triggered flooding in at least eight states, according to the National Weather Service.
Helene Floods Eight States
The states include: Florida, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and Kentucky. See orange, red and purple areas below.
From NWS Water Prediction Center. Gage data from noon 9/26/24 to noon 9/27/24. Purple = Major Flooding, Red = Moderate, Brown = Minor. Yellow = Action.
Many of those same areas could still see additional rainfall. Through 7 AM CDT, NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center gives 15 states a chance for additional excessive rainfall. See below.
Power Outages and Deaths
Meanwhile, more than 3 million people in affected areas remain without power, according to PowerOutages.US.
The Hill reports that at least 35 people died as a result of the Category 4 storm.
At this hour, NBC puts the death toll at 42 and says more than 4 million people are without power.
USA Today reported within the hour that 4.5 million people have no electricity.
The death toll will likely increase in coming days as rescuers race to free more people trapped in flooded areas.
It could take weeks to restore all the power given the breadth of the devastation. An Associated Press report said that in Georgia, “…an electrical utility group warned of ‘catastrophic’ damage to the state’s utility infrastructure, with more than 100 high voltage transmission lines damaged.”
AP also reported that in South Carolina, “more than 40% of homes and businesses were without power.” They said crews needed to cut their way through debris just to determine what was still standing in some places.
Helene Now a Tropical Depression
At 4 PM, the National Hurricane Center has downgraded Helene to a tropical depression with sustained winds of 35 MPH and forward motion of 17 MPH.
Summary of Weather Stats
For a list of reported rainfall totals to date and peak wind gusts associated with Helene, see this list from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction as of 11 AM EDT 9/27/24. Busick, North Carolina recorded the highest rainfall total to date: 29.58 inches.
All in all, the forecasters predicted Helene’s impacts pretty accurately.
Helene is the latest reminder of why we need to continue fighting for flood mitigation. It could have happened here.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/27/24
2586 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/20240927-Helene-Flooding.jpg?fit=1100%2C614&ssl=16141100adminadmin2024-09-27 17:01:582024-09-27 17:27:06Helene Triggers Flooding in 8 States, Millions Without Power
9/26/24 5:20 PM CDT Update – Helene has become a Category 4 storm with 130 MPHsustained winds.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Helene is rapidly becoming one of the “largest hurricanes in decades.” Comparing Helene to previous hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, they say, “Helene is at the upper bound in terms of size.”
Widespread Impacts, “Immense Human Suffering”
Helene’s hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center. And tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles.
“As a result , storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far away from the center and well outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side,” they say.
“In addition, the fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far inland penetration of strong winds. That includes strong gusts over higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, characterized Helene as “extremely dangerous.” He said, “Widespread and significant impacts will produce immense human suffering by modern standards.”
Large parts of the SE US will have a greater than 50% chance of tropical-storm-force or higher winds from Helene.
Already High End of Category 2 at 10 AM
As of 10AM, maximum sustained winds had increased to near 105 MPH with higher gusts. That puts Helene just five miles per hour from becoming a major category three hurricane.
Helene was moving toward the Big Bend area of the Florida Panhandle at 14 MPH and will make landfall this evening. After landfall, Helene should turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.
The minimum central pressure has plummeted to 947 mb.
Additionally, water level rise along the west coast of Florida has begun and will quickly worsen through the day. Catastrophic storm surge will reach up to 15-20 feet above normally dry ground.
Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches.
This rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.
Key Messages
A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula.
Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend region this evening. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well inland. Strong wind gusts are also likely farther north across portions of northern Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.
Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, including numerous significant landslides, is expected across portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday. Widespread significant river flooding and isolated major river flooding are likely.
Helene in Historical Perspective
All indications at this point suggest Helene will have a huge impact on the southeastern US.
Helene at 10 AM Central Daylight TimeWider shot taken at 5:30 PM CDT slightly before landfall.
“This is likely to be the worst hurricane event for this area in over a generation. Conditions near the coast will not be survivable.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Lindner continued, “Since 1851 there are no records of storms of this magnitude in Apalachee Bay. All coastal structures/infrastructure lower than 15 ft will be completely destroyed. Older slab built structures in this area will suffer catastrophic damage and likely be washed away. Water levels will almost certainly rise to the second floors of elevated structures and some of these will face total collapse. All available efforts should be utilized to evacuate these areas.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/26/24 at 11 AMbased on information from NHC and Harris County
2585 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/1000x1000.jpg?fit=1000%2C1000&ssl=110001000adminadmin2024-09-26 11:41:132024-09-26 18:10:54Helene Will Be One of Largest Hurricanes in Decades
