Tropical Storm Milton Forms in Gulf; Expected to Become Major Hurricane
10/5/24 – Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the Bay of Campeche. Within hours this morning, the National Hurricane Center upgraded an area of low pressure to a tropical depression and then again to a tropical storm.
At this time, NHC predicts it will move toward the west coast of Florida and strengthen to or near MAJOR hurricane strength.
Milton currently does not affect the upper Texas coast, nor is it expected to, except for some welcome cloudiness.
Here’s what the storm looked like from a satellite: slight rotation at the left and the beginning of banding.
Forecast
At 12:25 PM CDT, NHC said satellite data indicated that the depression had strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or so. After that, a trough moving
southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a
slightly faster forward speed.
On the current track, Milton will cross the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Models agree on the track, but not the forward speed, so timing could vary. NHC reminds residents not to focus on the exact track because the average 4-day track error is about 150 miles.
Milton is within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. With those conditions, NHC expects rapid strengthening over the next few days. The rate of strengthening should increase after an inner core forms in the next 12 to 24 hours. NHC forecasts rapid intensification after 36 hours.
The official forecast shows the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Models are in good consensus on this point. But some suggest Milton will grow even stronger.
Regardless, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast
of the Florida Peninsula next week.
Key Messages
If you have friends, relatives, or travel plans in the affected area, remember these key points.
- Milton will quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. - There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials. Check the NHC site regularly for updates.
- Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton. Expect heavy rainfall more directly related to the system by later Tuesday through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
Major Hurricane Count So Far this Season
In an average hurricane season, the Atlantic basin normally sees three major hurricanes. And so far, we’ve had three.
- Beryl – 160 MPH
- Helene – 140 MPH
- Kirk – 120 MPH
But usually, we don’t get the third until the end of October – October 28th to be exact. Four at the beginning of October is slightly unusual. And we still have almost two months left in this season.
Maybe this will be an extreme season after all.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/5/24
2594 Days since Hurricane Harvey