Milton

Milton Now a Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane, NHC Says It May Go To Cat 5

10/6/24 at 5PM – Yesterday morning, Milton wasn’t even a tropical depression. This morning, Milton was a tropical storm packing winds of about 60 MPH. By noon, Milton became a hurricane. By the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 4 PM update, winds were at 85 MPH with higher gusts and “rapidly intensifying.”

NHC predicts Milton will become a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher with minimum sustained winds of 111 MPH) on Monday. That’s because it will track through warm, deep water in an area with low wind shear.

Current Conditions

At the 4PM update, hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 80 miles. Estimated central pressure was 983 mb.

Milton was tracking toward the east at 7 MPH on a track to strike the center of Florida’s west coast. It does not pose a threat to Texas. However, the Associated Press reports that some communities on Florida’s west coast are already ordering mandatory evacuations.

Forecast to Become Cat 4 or 5

According to NHC, some models are predicting Milton could become a Cat 4 (130 to 156 MPH) or Cat 5 (157 MPH or higher) in a day or two. NHC admits its estimates “still could be too low.”

Large and “Life Threatening”

NHC also predicts Milton will be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area – a scenario similar to Helene just days ago.

“There is increasing confidence,” they say, “that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of Florida’s west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials.”

Tropical storm force winds should arrive in Florida by Tuesday evening.

Key Messages

If you have friends, relatives, business or travel plans in Florida, understand that:

  1. Milton will be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula midweek. It’s still too early to predict the exact track and intensity.
  2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday. Storm-Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued tonight or early Monday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast.
  3. Heavy rainfall will impact Florida through Monday well ahead of Milton. More heavy rainfall directly related to Milton will hit Florida Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding. It will also have the potential for moderate to MAJOR river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

Other Hazards

NHC also warns of:

  • STORM SURGE: Water will rise as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as the storm tracks east. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
  • WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Monday afternoon.
  • SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two. They will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions.

Milton will make the third major hurricane in two weeks. It was only 12 days ago that Helene raked the west coast of Florida. Reportedly, many people in affected areas have not even returned home yet.

Sufficiency of Wind-Scale as Predictor of Damage

The New York Times ran an interesting article this morning titled “The Problem with the Hurricane Category Rating.” The thrust of it was that the rating system looks only at wind, but most of the damage is done by water. And NHC says 55% of all deaths are due to flooding during and after a hurricane.

The article quotes a number of government officials, professionals and academics working on ways to fill the gaps.

That will be the subject of a future post.

In the meantime, your best bet is to bookmark the NHC site and visit it daily during hurricane season. When a hurricane threatens the mainland, NHC updates information every few hours.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/24

2595 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 12 days since Helene