NHC 10/14/24 afternoon update: it ain't over till it's over

It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over

10/14/24 – Looking at the National Hurricane Center’s afternoon update, Yogi Berra’s famous quote comes to mind – “It ain’t over till it’s over.” Of course, Yogi was speaking of baseball and I’m speaking of the 2024 hurricane season.

NHC posted a new 7-day outlook at 1:28 this afternoon showing two areas of concern. One in the middle of the Atlantic has a 50% chance of development. The one in the western Caribbean has a 20% chance.

The first is where Cat 5 Hurricane Kirk just formed. The latter is the same general area where Cat 5 Hurricanes Helene and Milton formed within the last three weeks.

Central Atlantic Formation Chance Now 60 Percent

Here’s what NHC has to say about the orange area in the Central Atlantic.

A well-defined area of low pressure located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is currently embedded in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of days.

However, this system will move generally westward toward warmer waters. There, environmental conditions could become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week.

A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week.

National Hurricane Center

Formation chance through 48 hours is only 10 percent. However, formation chance through 7 days is currently 60 percent. The formation chance has steadily increased for this area during the last few days.

Western Caribbean

Regarding that area in the Western Caribbean, NHC says this.

A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week.

Some development is possible thereafter if the system stays over water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central America.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America later this week.

Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent. However, formation chance through 7 days is 20 percent at this hour.

This is near where Helene and Milton began.

Remember: six more weeks of hurricane season. And it ain’t over till it’s over. So keep checking NHC daily.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/14/24

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