Third Named Storm Puts 2024 Hurricane Season a Month Ahead

7/1/24. – Last night, Tropical Storm Chris became the third named storm of the 2024 hurricane season. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the third named storm usually doesn’t happen until August. That puts the current hurricane season well ahead of the 30-year average for the Atlantic Basin.

Climatology Data from NHC

Data from 1991 through 2020 indicates we usually have one named storm in June and one in July before the Atlantic season heats up in August, September and October. Then we’re back to one in November.

However, the NHC and a variety of academic and commercial forecasters predicted an extremely active 2024 hurricane season because of high sea surface temperatures and low wind shear associated with the developing La Niña.

Tropical Storm Alberto has already come and gone. It dissipated into the Bay of Campeche last month. But we are now into July.

3 Areas of Interest Currently in Atlantic

At the moment, we have three areas of interest in the Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Chris Dissipating

The remnants of Chris are currently moving inland over Mexico.

Hurricane Beryl Nearing High End of Cat 4

The eye of Beryl began crossing the Windward Islands this morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft measured 150 MPH sustained winds at 11:10 AM as Beryl made landfall on Carriacou Island.

150 MPH puts Beryl near the top of Cat 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale that predicts wind damage. Category 4 goes from 130 MPH to 156 MPH.

NHC advises that in a Cat 4 storm “Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”

However, Beryl is likely to encounter some wind shear in the Caribbean that will slow it down. The latest advisory from NHC predicts Beryl will weaken into a tropical storm before crossing the Yucatan and entering the Gulf on Saturday. See below.

Meanwhile NHC has urged island residents to shelter in place and not venture out during what it describes as “life-threatening conditions.”

Central Atlantic Still Disturbed

A third disturbance is still out in the central, tropical Atlantic more than 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. According to NHC, a tropical depression could form by the middle part of this week. Formation chance through 2 days is low – only 20%. However, the chance through 7 days is medium – 50%.

Satellite images show training storms moving off the coast of Africa. This probably won’t be the last disturbance we see originating in these latitudes in coming weeks.