Beryl satellite photo

Beryl Goes from Tropical Storm to Cat 4 in One Day

6/30/24, 4 PM – Beryl intensified from a tropical storm yesterday morning to a category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds this afternoon.

Satellite image taken at 3:30 CDT

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression #3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. NHC predicts it will become a tropical storm by tonight and make landfall near where Alberto did in Mexico less than two weeks ago.

4PM Update on Beryl

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that the hurricane continues to move swiftly westward at 18 kt, steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. Beryl has made only a minor shift to the north since this morning, following the trend in the latest models.

Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when the hurricane passes over portions of the Windward Islands. At highest risk: St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning.

Latest cone of uncertainty for Beryl as of 3PM CDT, 6/30/24

As the hurricane tracks across the Caribbean Sea, there likely will be a gradual increase in wind shear, which should weaken it slightly. However, NHC predicts that Beryl will remain a significant hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region.

So far, the storm’s path has been eerily reminiscent of Harvey’s.

From Wikipedia

Here are the latest track forecasts of various models for today’s storm.

Some models take the path toward Houston, but the consensus seems a bit west.

Sea Surface Temps in Gulf

If Beryl makes it to the Gulf, it will encounter favorable sea surface temps.

Sea Surface Temperature departures from normal. 2 degrees Celsius = 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit.

It is too early to predict atmospheric conditions in the Gulf next weekend.

Record-Breaking Beryl

As it spins across the Atlantic, Beryl has already set two records:

  • Farthest east a hurricane has ever formed in the Atlantic in June
  • Earliest Cat 4 Hurricane on record.

Before this storm, the record earliest Category 4 hurricane was Dennis on July 8, 2005.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 4PM CDT on 6/30/24

2497 Days since Hurricane Harvey