Milton Could Be One of Most Destructive Hurricanes On Record
10/8/24 4 PM – As if the pictures of Helene’s aftermath weren’t enough, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that “Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”
Milton weakened to a Category 4 overnight during an eye wall replacement cycle and is now regaining strength as it expands into a larger storm. At 4 PM, it had a 10-mile-wide eye and was turning northeast, moving at 9 MPH.
NHC also reported that Milton regained Cat 5 strength and had sustained winds of 165 MPH.

Typically, Cat 5 storms destroy a high percentage of framed homes, with total roof failure and wall collapse. NHC warns that “fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will likely last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”
Ironically, much of the area that Milton will hit was already heavily damaged by Helene two weeks ago. Cleanup from Helene is not yet complete. The high winds could create a blizzard of debris and airborne projectiles.
Authorities are urging residents in evacuation zones to get out today as there may not be enough time if they wait until tomorrow.
Highly Populated Area in Crosshairs
The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) forecast track currently puts the Tampa Bay Area in the crosshairs with landfall tomorrow.

However, NHC cautions that, this far in advance, their forecasts typically contain 60-70 miles of error.
The outer winds could reach the Florida coast tomorrow. And the hurricane should make landfall early Thursday, crossing the Florida Peninsula, emerging into the Atlantic Ocean on Friday.
NHC says that preparations to protect life and property, and to be ready for long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight. By tomorrow, conditions will deteriorate and it may not be safe to work outside.

Wind Field, Storm Surge Will Affect Much of Florida
NHC also says that “Milton’s wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone.”

At 1 PM, hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 140 miles.
Storm surge in the Tampa area could reach 15 feet above dry ground. Surge warnings affect the entire western coast of Florida, the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas. Note below that NHC has also posted surge warnings for most of Florida’s eastern coast up through Georgia and South Carolina.

Heavy Rains and Flooding
NHC predicts 5 to 12 inches of rainfall, with localized totals up to 18 inches, across central to northern Florida through Thursday.

This rainfall will bring the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with
moderate to major river flooding, according to NHC.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
Posted by Bob Rehak at 3:30 PM, 10/8/24
2597 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 13 since Helene