NHC Gives 40-50% Chance of Tropical Cyclone Formation In Gulf This Week

NHC Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020 For North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:

Source: National Hurricane Center 5 Day Tropical Outlook for Atlantic as of 7:05AM CDT on 5/31/2020

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts the Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda, now centered inland over southeastern Guatemala, to weaken into a remnant low or dissipate over Guatemala or southeastern Mexico by tonight.

However, the NHC also predicts that the remnants of Amanda will move northwestward within a broader area of disturbed weather, possibly emerging over the southeastern Bay of Campeche on Monday.

If the remnants move back over water, environmental conditions appear conducive to support some redevelopment of the system while it moves little through the middle of this week.

Regardless of redevelopment, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico during the next few days. For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products from your national meteorological service.

The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be by 3 PM EDT today, or earlier if necessary.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.
  • Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

 If it does become a named storm, it would be Cristobal.

Tropical Storm Amanda will likely cross into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. (Source: NOAA via Space City Weather).

Too Early to Predict Direction of Storm

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control District meteorologist, says, “Where exactly any center forms will determine what sort of longer term track would be possible … across the Gulf of Mexico.”

“Regardless of development,” he continues, “a large plume of tropical moisture will be moving into the SW and eventually the western Gulf of Mexico this week. Some of this moisture will likely get directed toward the Texas coast by late week and next weekend.”

“As with any tropical system in this stage of potential development, there is lots of uncertainty.”

“The best course of action is to monitor weather forecasts daily and National Hurricane Center outlooks for any changes.”

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control meteorologist


Hurricane season starts tomorrow. The NHC predicts above-average activity this hurricane season.

Source: National Hurricane Center prediction on 5/21/2020.

Now would be a good time to prepare. The major risks in the Lake Houston area include river and street flooding (as we saw with Harvey, Allison and Imelda) and wind damage (as we saw with Ike). Ike led to prolonged power outages due to trees falling against power lines.

Make sure you have fresh batteries and a backup supply, as well as a weather radio.

Also make sure you have a way to charge your cell phone (vehicle or power block). And make sure you learn how to use the Harris County Flood Warning System to increase your situational awareness.

Familiarize yourself with the LINKS page of this website. It contains links to many useful sites specializing in preparedness and weather.

Remember: the COVID crisis presents an extra layer of complication this year.

Lake Level Report

As of this morning, the level of Lake Conroe was 200.23 feet and the SJRA continues releasing 1581 cubic feet per second. Their goal: to bring the lake down to 200 feet by tomorrow.

Also as of this morning, the Coastal Water Authority indicates that the level of Lake Houston is down approximately one foot.

Lake Level41.46 ft.
Normal Pool42.4 ft.
Source: Coastal Water Authority readings as of 7:30am 5/31/2020.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/31/2020

1006 Days after Hurricane Harvey