NHC Predicts Above-Normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
On May 24, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued its forecast for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. NHC expects an above-average hurricane season for the seventh year in a row. They say an ongoing La Niña and above-average sea surface temperatures set the stage for a busy season. NHC’s predictions reinforce the forecast issued last month by Colorado State University.
In case you missed that post, CSU predicted:
- Named Storms: 19
- Hurricanes: 9
- Major Hurricanes: 4
Each of those numbers falls within the ranges shown above by NHC.
Seventh Consecutive Above-Average Season
If NOAA predictions prove true, 2022 would make the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season.
NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a:
- 65% chance of an above-normal season
- 25% chance of a near-normal season
- 10% chance of a below-normal season.
For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2022 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.
The 2022 hurricane outlook is not a “landfall forecast.”
NOAA Enhances Products and Services
NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. emphasized that NOAA’s forecasting accuracy continues to improve. The agency has enhanced the following products and services this hurricane season:
- To improve the understanding and prediction of how hurricanes intensify, NOAA will operate five Saildrone uncrewed surface vehicles this season. Those will coordinate with uncrewed ocean gliders, small aircraft drone systems, and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft.
- The newest version of NOAA’s Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System will allow uninterrupted operational forecasts, and improve storm track and intensity forecasts.
- The Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) has been experimentally extended from three to five days of lead time. This will give people more notice of rainfall-related flash flooding risks from tropical storms and hurricanes. ERO forecasts the probability of intense rainfall that could lead to flash flooding within 25 miles of a given point.
- In June, NOAA will enhance Peak Storm Surge Forecasts. Upgrades include color coding that illustrates the peak storm surge inundation forecast at the coast.
Start Preparing Now
FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said, “It’s important for everyone to understand their risk and take proactive steps to get ready now.” Some tips:
- Visit Ready.gov for preparedness tips on what to do before, during and after a flood.
- Have several ways to receive alerts.
- Download the FEMA app and receive real-time alerts from the National Weather Service for up to five locations nationwide.
- Sign up for community alerts in your area and be aware of the Emergency Alert System (EAS) and Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA), which require no sign up.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/25/22 based on information from the National Hurricane Center and Ready.Gov
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