News Archives - Page 107 of 275

Heavy Rainfall Threat Approaching

Last week, I posted about the possibility of heavy rain early this week. Last night, Dallas experienced torrential rains and they’re headed this way. One amateur weather gage on Londonderry Lane reported more than 14″ of rain! Dallas/Fort Worth officially received 9.46 inches of rainfall in 6 hours and 7.8 inches in 3-hours. Significant flash flooding has resulted. A 1-hour storm total of 3.01 inches was recorded at DFW with a storm total of 6.54 inches. That wiped out 67% of the area’s 2022 rainfall deficit in a few hours.

*National Weather Service map as of 12:41 pm Houston time. Purple boxes represent flash flood warnings. Bright green = Flood warnings. Dark green = flood watch.*

Threat Will Increase From North to South During Next 24 Hours

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, the frontal boundary over north Texas will slowly move southward today and approach the northern portions of southeast Texas by mid- to late afternoon. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop along the boundary along with scattered showers developing northward along the seabreeze and Gulf inflow.

The air mass will become extremely moist and unstable. When combined with slow moving/stalled boundaries, excessive rainfall can result. Lindner says areas north of HWY 105 have the first potential for heavy rainfall in early afternoon. Then the front will slowly sink southward toward I-10 tonight into early Tuesday. Expect slow storm motions, cell training, and back-building of cells to the west and northwest. Everything points to heavy rainfall.

While grounds are dry, the local air mass will be capable of some impressive short duration rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches in an hour.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

This was clearly seen overnight in north Texas. The local air mass will not be much different over southeast Texas. Especially N of I-10. These rainfall rates can lead to rapid flash flooding especially in urban areas.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are expected over much of southeast Texas through mid week. But Lindner also expects isolated higher totals of 6+ inches. And where these higher totals occur, flash flooding will be possible, he says.

Confidence in rainfall is high. But confidence in rainfall amounts and location of the heaviest rainfall is low.

Street flooding will be the primary threat with the heavy rainfall rates. Rises on area creeks and bayous will be possible if some of the heavier storms train or move slowly over any watershed.

Overall, this wet pattern will linger into late week. But a slightly drier air mass will eventually push through and we should transition back toward a more “normal” cycle of showers and thunderstorms driven mostly by the seabreeze front.

See the National Weather Services predictions below.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/22 based on information from HCFCD and NWS

1819 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Greens Bayou Mid-Reach Segment Reaches 10-Year Level-of-Service Goal. Now What?

In the Tuesday 8/23/22 Harris County Commissioners Court Meeting, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) will deliver the results of a study on the Greens Bayou mid-reach area. The study shows that when the Aldine-Westfield Phase 2 and Lauder Phase 2 Basins are complete, the area will be protected from a 10-year flood (10% annual chance). But the study doesn’t stop there. It also recommends building another large detention basin and increasing channel conveyance to protect the area in a 25-year flood (4% annual chance).

10-Year Protection Achieved

Back in 2003, HCFCD started working on a plan to bring much needed flood reduction to the area between Veterans Memorial and JFK along Greens. That stretch covers 11 miles of Harris County Precincts 1 and 2.

Since then, four stormwater detention basins have been built along the bayou.

*Locations of improvements along Greens Bayou.* *Red is proposed.*

Also since 2003, NOAA has developed new Atlas-14 rainfall probability estimates.

atlas 14 rainfall probabilities — *Atlas 14 rainfall probabilities for northern Harris County*

The new estimates show that northern Harris County could experience 30-40% more rain than previously estimated in major events. With both rainfall and detention basin capacity increasing, the question became, “Where do things stand?”

This new engineering study shows that the four existing detention basins (Kuykendahl, Glen Forest, Aldine-Westfield and Lauder) should protect homes and businesses in a 10-year flood. But achieving greater protection will require something more.

Four Alternatives to Increase Capacity

Engineers looked at four different alternative combinations of stormwater detention capacity and/or channel conveyance improvements to provide more protection. Each alternative involved the proposed Hardy Stormwater Detention Basin shown in red on the map above.

Alternative 1 – Building a 3,000 acre-foot basin
Alternative 2 – Smaller 2,000 acre-foot basin with more room for recreation
Alternative 3 – Same as #2 but also with channel conveyance improvements
Alternative 4 – Only conveyance improvements; no additional storage capacity
Alternative 5 – Build nothing else. Stop with existing basins.

The chart below summarizes what they found.

*For a description of all alternatives, see the preliminary engineering review.* *It’s not clear how ranking fits with recommendation.*

The engineers recommended Alternative #3 – given sufficient funding. It would achieve a 25-year system capacity in general. The area immediately downstream of I-45 would achieve closer to a 10-year system capacity. And the area immediately downstream of the Hardy Tollroad would be closer to a 50-year capacity.

The proposed and existing improvements would create enough storage to hold a foot of rain falling across 16.4 square miles!

Cost: A mere $196 million on top of the $126 million already invested in the other four basins. Compared to Alternative 5, #3 would protect another 25 structures in a 10-year flood, 173 in a 50-year, and 239 in a 100-year. HCFCD did not list a number for a 25-year event. But we can assume it’s somewhere south of 173.

This HCFCD presentation recommends a phased approach to implementation to accommodate annual funding levels.

Phase 1: 3.6 miles of channel conveyance improvements
Phase 2: 3.5 miles of channel conveyance improvements and 500 acre-feet of stormwater detention
Phase 3: 3.5 miles of channel conveyance improvements and 500 acre-feet of stormwater detention
Phase 4: Final 1,000 acre-feet of stormwater detention

The slide below shows how much the existing and new improvements would shrink the 25-year floodplain. Mentally subtract the purple areas to see before and after.

*Purple represents the extent of the floodplain without improvements. Blue shows the extent with improvements.*

For the full presentation, click here.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/21/2022 based on material from HCFCD

1818 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Garcia’s $1.2 Billion Mystery Tax Going on November 8th Ballot

Three bonds that amount to a $1.2 billion mystery tax will go on the November ballot in Harris County. In a special Harris County Commissioner’s Court meeting on Thursday 8/18/22, three Democrats voted for the bonds in another carefully orchestrated meeting. They did not:

Make the bond language public before (or after) the meeting.
Release even a partial list of projects that the money will go towards.
Address how the bond will be promoted or who will promote it.
Discuss the lopsided distribution of funds ($160 million more for each Democratic precinct).
Define how phrases such as, “worst first” will be defined.
Allow Republican commissioners to ask questions.
Explain why they wanted another bond when approximately half a billion dollars remains from the last one in 2015.

Aside from three-high level categories of spending (public safety, roads and parks), nothing in the bonds says exactly how or where the money will be spent.

Debate Cut Off with Questions Unanswered

After Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia made three motions to approve three separate bonds, Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis seconded them. County Judge Lina Hidalgo extolled their benefits and called members of the public who spoke against the bonds liars.

In a carefully stage-managed meeting, Hidalgo insisted the bonds would not raise taxes, but once again blurred the distinction between tax rates and tax bills. Budget Manager Daniel Ramos repeatedly said property valuations were going up. However…

Neither Hidalgo, nor Ramos discussed the combined impact of the rate multiplied by much higher property valuations over 25 years.

Hidalgo has consistently avoided that discussion.

Despite attempts by Republican Commissioners Tom Ramsey and Jack Cagle to ask questions, the Democrats used their majority to invoke a parliamentary procedure known as “calling the question.” Calling the question stops debate (which never started in this case) and calls for an immediate vote on a proposal. The three Democrats voted YES to call the question. The two Republicans voted NO.

Hidalgo then called an immediate vote on the three bond proposals. Each passed 3-2. Hidalgo adjourned the meeting.

Video of Politics at Its Most Brutal

This meeting was a microwave version of most court meetings in the last four years. If you want to get a good feeling for Harris County politics before you vote, I highly recommend watching it. The last public speaker ends at 36:28 and approval of the bond begins. You can view the entire video here. It only lasts another 15-20 minutes.

But first, you may want to watch this 20-second clip posted on YouTube in which Hidalgo brands members of the public who spoke against the bond as liars.

Video clip showing start of discussion after public comments. Compare audio with official transcript below.

In the official transcript, someone redacted the lying comment.

*8/20/22* *screen capture of official transcript. Red type added to indicate text and location of omission.*

Accidental or intentional? You be the judge.

Bond Language Concealed from Public Beforehand

While you are at it, click on the meeting’s agenda and see if you can find the bond language they “voted” on.

Clicking on the links and tabs within the agenda item for the bond showed no linked PDFs with bond language.

Clicking on Legislation Details brought up this page.

*Blank page for Legislation Details where bond text should have been linked.*

Clicking on “Legislative Details with Text” brought up these pages, which contained only a high-level summary of the bonds.

Omissions Open Door to Redirection of Funds

I had to specifically request the bond language from Commissioner Ramsey’s office. You can review the entire bond text here. Two omissions jumped out at me.

“Worst first” isn’t defined. Commissioner Cagle complained about that, among other things, starting at 47:30 in the video.
There is no mention of at least $220 million going to each precinct.

In 2019, Garcia, Ellis and Hidalgo cried “worst first” to justify their prioritization of flood-bond projects. After passage of the bond, they defined “worst” as watersheds with high percentages of Low-to-Moderate Income Residents, regardless of how badly those watersheds flooded. Those watersheds have received more than a billion dollars to date while areas that received 20+ feet of water above flood stage have received virtually nothing from the bond.

The bond language also makes no mention of at least $220 million going to each precinct, a concession approved in the previous meeting which Hidalgo repeatedly referenced.

When Cagle tried to raise these issues, Garcia and Hidalgo cut him off. The three called the question, voted and left the room.

The next meeting of commissioners court will vote on two proposals to promote the bond which have not gone through a competitive bidding process. See items 427 and 428. Sorry, there’s no backup on those either. So much for transparency!

No one except Garcia, Ellis and Hidalgo know why we need the bonds, where the money will go, or who will get the benefit. That’s why I call this bond a mystery tax.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/20/22

1817 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Chances of Tropical Formation for 99L Increase to 80%

As of 7 pm CDT on 8/19/22, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave a tropical disturbance in the Gulf an 80% chance of turning into a named storm today or tomorrow. They call this area of investigation “99L.” Two days ago, the NHC gave this only a 10% chance of developing. But it survived going over the rugged terrain of Central America and is now out over water again where conditions are favorable for development.

Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms are getting better organized. Deep thunderstorms have developed near/over this low pressure center.

*Satellite photo taken at noon Houston time on 8/18/22.*

According to NHC, environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves northwestward across the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico as early as today. However, by Saturday night, NHC predicts the system will move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development.

Conditions that support continued development include light wind shear, a large plume of moisture and very warm sea surface temperatures.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Interests along the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system could bring locally heavy rains to southern Texas over the weekend.

More Rain for Houston Expected

In the northern hemisphere, low-pressure systems like this one rotate counterclockwise. So as the system heads toward Brownsville, it will spin moisture up along the Texas Gulf coast. That’s part of the reason why our rain chances for the next few days will remain high.

*From Weather Live as of 12:40pm, 8/18/22.*

As moisture from 99L spreads northward, it will interact with an incoming frontal boundary from the north and northwest early next week. That will also enhance rainfall chances.

*Areas where Precipitable Water in atmosphere exceeds 1.5″. Precipitable waters are defined as the amount of water vapor in a column of air.* *Source: NWS Storm Prediction Center.*

The National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center calls for another 4-5 inches of rain during the next 7 days.

*Expected rainfall totals through 8/27/2022*

Evening Update

As of 6:34 pm Houston time, NHC has increased the chances of formation to 80% and has started referring to the storm in the Gulf as “potential tropical cyclone #4.” Hurricane Hunter aircraft this afternoon did not find closed circulation. The plane did find an area of 25-30kt winds well to the northeast of the weak wind field near the active thunderstorms. The system is morning NW at around 15mph. Lindner expects the storm to make landfall as a 45 mph tropical storm tomorrow evening near the Rio Grande.

For more information, including the expected arrival time of tropical storm force winds, warning cones, and wind-speed probabilities, click here.

Conditions are changing rapidly. For the latest updates, monitor the National Hurricane Center website. During hurricane season, I bookmark this page and have it readily available on my phone.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/18/2022

1816 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Preservation: A Natural, Low-Cost Form of Flood Mitigation

Most people think of Kingwood’s East End Park as a place to commune with nature. But it began as a natural, low-cost form of flood mitigation.

When Friendswood was building Kingwood, it toyed with the idea of building homes where the park now stands. Instead, it bequeathed the land to the Kingwood Service Association (KSA). KSA now maintains the property as a nature park for the benefit of all Kingwood residents. Leaving it natural also helps protect people from flooding.

Sometimes the best way to deal with the side effects of development is simply to preserve nature where flooding occurs most frequently. And it certainly occurs frequently along the East Fork of the San Jacinto River. In areas like these, parks provide a buffer. And that creates positive value while avoiding negative costs.

How Parks Create Positive Value

The main features offered in the 158-acre East End Park are tranquil, yet breathtaking views provided free of charge by Mother Nature. The park includes forests, wetlands, and natural meadows that provide food and habitat for wildlife. People often see families of deer munching on grass at the edge of the forests. Occasionally, visitors sight eagles, alligators, river otters, foxes, coyotes and bobcats.

*KSA East End Park Poster*. *Photos by Bob Rehak.*

Birders also find the park an urban wonderland. Forty-plus acres of tall grass meadows draw approximately 140 species of birds during the spring and fall migrations. Many of those are threatened or endangered. The Lake Houston Area Nature Club hosts birding tours here from September to May. They start at 7:30 AM from the parking lot at the east end of Kingwood Drive and usually last till about 10am.

Another major attraction of the park: spectacular sunrises most mornings.

*East End Park at Sunrise by Dr. Charles Campbell*.

Dr. Charles Campbell hikes several miles in the park each morning. He took the picture above not far from the main entrance at the east end of Kingwood Drive. He also took the one below at Otter Point.

*Sunrise over Lake Houston from Kingwood’s East End Park at Otter Point. By Dr. Charles Campbell.*

The park draws an estimated 100,000 visitors per year, but it rarely seems crowded because the visitors disperse among dense forests along 5+ miles of trails throughout the day.

East End Park is an exceptional amenity for Kingwood residents, gifted to all by a visionary developer. Was it totally selfless? Of course not. Nationally, research shows that proximity to parks can increase home values up to 20%. In short, people like parks.

Also Consider Cost Avoidance of Preservation

During Harvey, the entire park went underwater. Most of it also went underwater during the Tax Day, Memorial Day, and Imelda storms. Can you imagine what would have happened had Friendswood built homes here?

There would have been tens of millions of dollars in damages, losses to taxpayer-subsidized flood insurance, disaster relief funds, and the overhead of a bureaucracy to administer aid. Buyouts and demolition would have been required. Flood mitigation in the form of channels and detention basins would have cost tens of millions more. And all the positive values would have been lost.

But by just leaving it natural, we collectively saved all those personal and public expenses. We also created a beautiful “people magnet” that sustains home values instead of undermining them. Trail repair costs after Harvey totaled only $60,000.

That’s less than the cost to repair one average home flooded to a depth of a foot or more. And that’s the value of preservation – the natural, low-cost form of flood mitigation.

Sometimes we need to learn to just let nature be.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/18/22 with thanks to Dr. Charles Campbell

1815 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Another Tropical Wave Headed Toward Gulf

By this weekend, the second tropical wave in two weeks will make its way into the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean. They predict it will track northwest across Central America and the Yucatan. Then it should emerge into the Gulf of Mexico later this week.

It’s too early to tell the exact track, timing or degree of development. That depends on many factors such as steering currents and frontal boundaries. But as of 7am Houston time on 8/16/22, NHC gives the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a named storm within 5 days.

NHC says an area of low pressure could form on Friday. Gradual development of this system is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend.

*15:20 Zulu time is 10:20 Houston time. Note the cloud formation in lower left over Nicaragua and Honduras.*

Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner says conditions will become increasing favorable for tropical cyclone development in the Bay of Campeche (the area with the yellow circle). He points to a frontal boundary dropping south toward the Texas coast late this week and says areas south of that boundary will become increasingly favorable for a low pressure system to develop along the axis of the tropical wave.

*Weather Service Storm Prediction Center 3-Day Outlook shows front moving across southern plains on Friday.*

However, there’s no reason to panic now. Just watch the National Hurricane Center website closely over the next several days for any changes.

Almost exactly 5 years ago, a storm followed a similar track across the Yucatan. It eventually became known as Hurricane Harvey.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/16/2022

1813 Days since Hurricane Harvey

City’s Harvey Recovery Map Shows Lake Houston Area Has Received Little Assistance

Five years after Hurricane Harvey, the City of Houston’s Harvey Recovery Map shows that in the Lake Houston Area less than 100 families have received some form of financial assistance. That’s out of 16,000 homes and 3,300 businesses that flooded in the Lake Houston Area during Harvey.

*Dots represent families receiving homebuyer assistance in Kingwood and Huffman.* *Clicking different layers of the map reveals statistics for different programs.*

Breakdown by Program

To be more precise, the map shows:

9 families in Kingwood and 1 in Huffman received homebuyer assistance
78 families in Kingwood and 5 in Huffman received homeowner assistance for repairs or reconstruction
The City has yet to report any statistics for its Economic Recovery Program for Small Businesses

A second “disaster impact” map shows that in four Kingwood Census tracts, Harvey damaged more than 70% of the homes. The percent damaged exceeded 90% in two of those.

The Houston Housing and Community Development Department’s (HCDD) Hurricane Harvey Recovery Program still has hundreds of millions of dollars left to distribute. But with the exception of the City’s Multifamily Program, most other programs continue to stutter and stumble.

Citywide Statistics Not Much Better

Of the 96,410 homes flooded in Houston during Harvey, the City has submitted 1,426 single-family files to the GLO and received approval for 1,244 (789 for repair or reimbursement, and 455 for home buying assistance). The number approved equals 1.3% of homes damaged or destroyed.

The City announced a $30 million economic development program for small businesses one year ago. But no progress reports appear on the City’s compliance website. However, the City is still accepting applications until December 31st of this year. The amount of money in the program could help up to 200 small businesses citywide. In the Lake Houston Area alone, Harvey damaged 16 times more than that. The Houston Business Journal says Houston has more than 100,000 small businesses.

Multifamily Only Bright Spot

Multifamily housing assistance is the one bright spot for HHCD. Out of the $450 million allocated to the program, the City has already spent or committed $355 million as of August 8, 2022. Seven projects have completed construction. Sixteen are under construction. Two are pending closing. And six are being underwritten.

Why the success for this one program? Corporations build multifamily complexes. Most of them can afford to hire people who pursue funding opportunities like this full time. They aren’t trying to get bids, track receipts and hold down regular jobs while repairing their homes from a disaster in their spare time.

Most of the feedback I have received is that flood victims without flood insurance who were living in travel trailers or with friends after Harvey took one of two paths. They paid for repairs out of pocket as they could afford them, or sold their homes “as is.”

Disaster relief money came too late. It had too many strings attached. And the application process was too cumbersome. Finally, the Housing and Community Development Department was too disorganized. So, I suspect the numbers will change little at this point.

Plus, the Homebuyer Assistance program has exhausted its funding and is closed. A red note at the top of the homepage of Recovery.HustonTX.gov says, “Due to … a pending decision on whether the City must return money that should go toward these critical programs and resources, we are no longer processing applications.” If more funding becomes available, those who previously applied will not be given preference.

A second red note says, “At this time, the City of Houston will continue assisting homeowners whose repairs and reconstructions were approved by the GLO prior to October 6, 2020. All other repair and reconstruction applications, including those approved after October 6, 2020, will be transferred to the GLO to complete the process.”

A final note says, “We appreciate your patience.”

Anything to Help Citizens

The good news: “The City of Houston Housing and Community Development Department is excited to announce beginning August 21st, we will be hosting open community office hours!” Every Wednesday, 1-4PM. “Walk-ins welcome, no appointment required!” If you still wish to apply.

*Graphic on City’s Recovery Transparency Page.*

Whoop-de-doo! Three hours a week! Five years after Harvey! Buried on a page that no one except reporters would take the time to find (at the bottom of the Transparency Page under the About Page). That’s really going above and beyond the call of duty to help citizens.

One can only wonder whether four hours a week – or putting the open-house notice on the home page – would help Houston recover faster.

Only one thing is certain: flood insurance beats the hope of disaster relief assistance.

To review the City’s July 2022 pipeline report that shows progress to date in several programs by stages, click here.

To review the compliance graphics for the City’s programs, click here.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/14/22

1811 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Giving Thanks to the Women and Men of Harris County Flood Control

A reader who visited a trade show recently in Las Vegas sent me several links to news stories about flash flooding there. 1.24 inches of rain caused widespread flooding, killed at least two people, and resulted in dozens of high water rescues!

*CBS Video posted on YouTube of Las Vegas Flooding*

Why Houston Doesn’t Flood On Two Inches

While HCFCD employees take a lot of heat every time someone floods, we should remember that it takes far more rain for people to flood here. There are several reasons for that.

First, Harris County formed a flood control district in 1937. Clark County, Nevada (Las Vegas) didn’t start its until 1985. So, we had an almost 50-year head start on them.

But sadly, some fast-growing counties around Harris County STILL don’t have flood control districts! (We’ll save that discussion for the next legislative session.)

Second, our topography is different. Because Harris County is so flat, rainfall spreads out and starts soaking into the ground before flooding starts. Rainfall in Las Vegas is funneled by the rugged landscape. It picks up velocity, so it doesn’t have time to soak in. Concentrated rainfall turns into flash flooding. The Las Vegas Wash funnels a 1,879 square mile watershed toward a metro area of 2.29 million people.

*From Flood Hazards and Flood Risk in Nevada’s Watersheds*

I was almost killed by a flash flood in Tucson once. While hiking along a stream bed with friends in the desert, we saw rain in the distant mountains. They immediately suggested moving to higher ground. Minutes later, a wall of water 6-8 feet high came boiling down that stream bed!

Third, we build to different rainfall standards. Las Vegas averages 4.18 inches of rain each year. Harris County averages 51.84 inches.

In Harris County, new building codes and flood-mitigation standards currently use the 24-hour, 100-year amount shown in the Atlas-14 table below – 17.3 inches.

In other words, we build things to withstand more rain in a day than Las Vegas receives in FOUR YEARS.

That takes some talent. Especially when surrounding areas send ever-increasing amounts of floodwater downstream because of lack of comparable controls upstream. And that could be why flood control districts around the country try to recruit talented HCFCD employees.

Despite our occasional frustrations, we should never forget: They stand between us and disaster.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/13/2022

1810 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Slight Chance of Tropical Formation In Gulf This Weekend

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a tropical weather outlook today that shows a 10% chance of tropical formation in the Gulf. This is your “heads up.” Hurricane season is ramping up.

NHC will provide an update on chances for development later this evening, but models show growing support that a tropical depression or weak tropical storm is possible along the middle or lower TX coast by Sunday. The system will then moving inland over south Texas late Sunday into Monday, according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist.

Latest Satellite Imagery

Here’s what the Gulf looks like on satellite Friday evening. The system will track W to WSW over 85-90 degree waters toward the mid- or lower-Texas coast on Sunday.

Currently, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf of Mexico are associated with an area of low pressure centered just offshore of the southern coast of Louisiana. There’s no tropical formation yet. But that could change.

As of 2PM EDT today, NHC listed the formation chance through:

48 hours…low…10 percent.
5 days…low…10 percent.

Rainfall Potential

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through the weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy rainfall, please see the National Weather Service site and the Weather Prediction Center.

Highest rain chances in next few days for SE Texas are around mid-day Saturday.

Decent rain chances exist for the next three days, especially along the coastline south of I-10.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist says, he expects most of the shower and thunderstorm development associated with this low pressure system to happen near the coast and offshore. He expects lesser chances inland to the north as high pressure and drier air begins to build southward from the northeast.

Forecasters use a measurement called PWS (Precipitable Waters) to predict amounts of rainfall. PWS measures the amount of water vapor in a column of air. This weekend with PWS of 2.2-2.3 inches and possible cell training, Lindner warns that a quick 2-3 inches of rainfall in less than an hour will be possible. Even though grounds are dry and should be able to handle the rainfall, some street flooding will be possible with those rates.

No River Flooding Expected

However, National Weather Service expects no significant river flooding in the next five days.

Tide Report

According to Lindner, tides are already elevated along the coast due to the full moon. Easterly and southeasterly low-level winds on the north side of the low may bump seas up a bit over the weekend and push tides a little higher. He expects water to be way up on the beaches at high tides over the weekend.

Monitor forecasts closely over the weekend for any changes.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/12/2022

1809 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Water Flowing Uphill at Laurel Springs RV Resort

Quick, somebody call Ripley. Against all odds, water appears to be flowing uphill at the Laurel Springs RV Resort.

*Note the pond to the left of the detention pond near the tree line. A sharp drop off exists below the bank of the detention pond, toward Edgewater Park on the left. Now see closeup below.*

*The only apparent source for water in the circle is the pond on the left. But that’s below the water in the circle.*

Is this an optical delusion? Or could something else be going on here? Could water actually be leaking through the dike?

Location of Buried Pipe

Back in January, contractors dug a trench through the dike and released the contents of the resort’s detention pond into Edgewater Park.

stormwater runoff discharge — *Silty stormwater being discharged into the wetlands of Harris County’s Edgewater Park below the RV resort. January 2022.*

Within another day, contractors started burying pipe in the trench and covering it up…at this exact spot where we now apparently see water flowing uphill.

Contractors laying pipe under wall of detention pond to send stormwater into Edgewater Park — *Contractors later laying pipe under wall of detention pond to continue sending stormwater into Edgewater Park.*

TCEQ traced sediment from the detention pond 450 feet downhill into the county’s park. Harris County then issued a Cease and Desist warning. In it, the County threatened to sue the owners of the RV park.

Later, a contractor told me his company removed the pipe. But I couldn’t find a single nearby resident who saw them do it. Subsequently, I’ve noticed water apparently leaking from the detention pond into the park after several rains…at this same spot! See below.

*May 2022*. Exact location shown in photos above.

So one possible explanation for this violation of the law of gravity could be that the pipe remains buried in the dike and water leaks through it. But I just can’t believe a contractor would lie to me!

If the pipe remains in the dike, that would seem to violate the owner’s construction permit. It says, in big red letters, “Stormwater Runoff Shall NOT Cross Property Lines.” I can’t believe the developer would violate permit terms either!

It’s hard being a small business owner these days. Do you violate Newton’s Law of Gravity or City law? Given a choice, it might be cheaper to go with Newton. So all things considered, I guess they figured out a way to get water flowing uphill. I’ve heard the owners are marketing geniuses.

I’m sure vacationers would drive their RVs from all across North America to see water flow uphill. Imagine the postcard sales!

Mysterious Black Spots Reappear

But that’s not the only possible tourist attraction. You’ve heard of people getting blood from a stone. At the Laurel Springs RV Resort, oil appears to simply ooze from the ground. Move over Beverly Hillbillies!

*Looking North from over Edgewater Park. Note dark areas in red circle and see magnified image below.* *Photo taken 8/11/22.*

*From a legal height, I shot straight down and photographed an oily sheen on the black spots.*

This is the same location where I previously photographed contractors covering up black spots on several occasions. See one below.

*Mysterious black spots in Laurel Springs RV Resort Detention Pond on March 10, 2022. Note bulldozer tracks.*

Every time contractors cover them up, they reappear. The TCEQ could not determine the origin of the dilute sample they found after one coverup. And Railroad Commission logs show no pipelines or abandoned wells in the area. So it’s officially a mystery.

Never ones to pass up a marketing opportunity, the RV resort owners reportedly hope to hire Max Baer, Jr., the last surviving member from the classic Beverly Hillbillies sitcom from the 1960s and 70s. Rumor has it, they want the 83-year-old Baer, who played Jethro, to be the first person through the gates at the grand opening. He would reportedly pass out samples of the oily substance so that RV owners across America can live the dream and tell their grandchildren how they struck oil while vacationing in Texas.

Concrete Galore

In another feat of marketing genius, the developer convinced the City of Houston permitting people that one third of the property would NOT be impervious cover, i.e., concrete.

*Developer claims only 2/3rds impervious cover.* *From Detention Plans.*

The developer is not yet done with pouring concrete. But it appears as if it will cover a lot more than 2/3rds of the site.

By the way, according Section 9.1.04.O of the City’s Infrastructure Design Manual, detention ponds count as 100% impervious cover regardless of whether they have wet or dry bottoms. So the pond doesn’t count toward the one-third – just those skinny slots between RV parking spaces. And does it look like they add up to seven acres!?

It looks like Harry Houdini would have a hard time squeezing between the narrower ones. Of course, Houdini died in the 1920s. So how will they divert attention from this one? The developer reportedly wants to hire David Blaine, reputed to be the world’s greatest living escape artist, to appear at the grand opening. Blaine will show anyone who complains about the tight parking spots how to squeeze into his/her RV.

I can’t wait for the star-studded grand opening when I get to see water flowing uphill, Jethro passing out oil, and City inspectors lining up for David Blaine’s autograph.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/11/2022

1808 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.