Five Watersheds Lose Population While Harris County Gains Slightly

Like damage, population is one of the “weighting factors” considered in the distribution of flood-mitigation dollars. Compared to 2017 estimates of watershed populations in Harris County, 2022 estimates show that five watersheds have lost population. But overall, the county has gained 155,254 people.

Data compiled from information provided by HCFCD in response to FOIA Requests. Alphabetical by watershed.

The map below shows the location of each of these watersheds.

Harris County Watersheds
Harris County Watersheds by Harris County Flood Control District

Reasons for Shifts Unclear

I had wondered whether the five major floods in Harris County between 2000 and 2020 (Allison, Tax Day, Memorial Day, Harvey and Imelda) would cause the most heavily flood-damaged areas to lose population. But that seems not to be the case.

The most heavily damaged watershed (Brays) lost the most population (in raw numbers). But the second most heavily damaged watershed (Greens) gained more than 16,000 people, the second largest gain.

I found no meaningful correlation between flood damage and population loss or growth. Nor do data suggest that flood-mitigation spending has much influence either. Contradictory examples abound. And statistical correlations rate as negligible to weak.

Five Watersheds Lost Population

Compared to the previous Census estimates from 2017:

  • Brays lost 5,822 people (0.8%)
  • Cedar lost 4,153 people (11.1%)
  • Hunting lost 1,112 people (1.4%)
  • Little Cypress lost 727 people (1.6%)
  • Vince lost 176 people (0.2%).

In percentages, Cedar Bayou lost the most population. Cedar was the sight of the Arkema disaster which blocked evacuation routes along Highway 90 during Harvey. The watershed currently has only about 37,000 people, ranking it 20th among the 23 watersheds in Harris County.

In five major storms between 2000 and today (Allison, Tax Day, Memorial Day, Harvey and Imelda), flood damage varied widely within those five watersheds:

  • Brays flooded 32,240 structures, the most of any watershed.
  • Cedar flooded 2,274.
  • Hunting flooded 15,763.
  • Little Cypress flooded 1,040.
  • Vince flooded 4,152.

18 Watersheds Gained Population

Eighteen other watersheds gained population and also had widely varying degrees of flood damage. These, too, showed little correlation.

Altogether, the county’s watersheds gained 155,254 people, despite 226,729 damaged structures during the five major storms.

Negligible Correlation of Flooding and Population Gain/Loss

The “population flees flooding” hypothesis didn’t hold much water.

Flood damage and “number of residents lost” correlated at only a 0.16 level – insignificant. Flood damage and “percent of residents lost” correlated at only 0.28, extremely weak.

A perfect correlation is 1.0. It indicates that for every unit of change in one variable, there is a corresponding unit of change in another variable. However, that was far from the case here. Variations seemed random.

If long-time Harris County residents are moving to higher ground, they may be replaced by newcomers unaware of flood risks.

The County has a strong draw: jobs. Also, family, friends, neighbors and support networks remain powerful attractions that keep most people anchored.

The new HCFCD data do not suggest why gains and losses occurred.

Top reasons for relocation typically include: greater safety, better schools, better housing, new jobs, and upgrading from apartments to homes.

LMI Population Trends

HCFCD also measures “LMI population.” LMI stands for Low-to-Moderate Income. The Census Bureau defines LMI as “families making less than the average for the region.”

Harris County has 42.6 % LMI residents. So 57.4% of residents make above the average for the region.

This is important because the LMI percentage plays a huge role in partnership grants from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Most, but not all, HUD grants go to areas with LMI populations higher than 70%. A notable exception is the pending $750 million HUD Harvey flood-mitigation grant. It only requires that 50% of the money benefits LMI households.

The latest HCFCD data shows that watersheds at both ends of the income spectrum lost LMI population. We still have the same eight LMI-majority watersheds we had in 2017. However, one deserves special mention.

Brays’ LMI population declined so significantly that it almost flipped from the “majority LMI” category to “majority upper income.” It went from 58% to 51% LMI.

Sixteen other watersheds gained LMI population. Some had huge flood losses; others had few.

The correlation between total flood damage and LMI Population Gain/Loss is .34, slightly higher than for the entire population but still considered “weak.”

Here are Harris County’s watersheds ranked in order of LMI population percentage.

As of 11/21/2022

My next post will discuss how the distribution of flood-mitigation funds relates to population changes and other factors. I will also discuss what the prospects for flood mitigation in the Lake Houston Area are during Lina Hidalgo’s second administration. Don’t miss it.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/21/22, based on data provided by HCFCD in response to a FOIA Request

1910 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

A Townsen Bridge Across Spring Creek?

Developers are working toward building a bridge over Spring Creek and a road that would connect Townsen Boulevard in Humble with the Grand Parkway in Montgomery County. However, City and County authorities on both sides of the county line say they know nothing tangible about the bridge yet.

I’ve talked to several engineers about this property. One said that if the bridge gets built, it will open thousands of acres to development. A second said that if the property gets developed, it would be like “aiming a firehose at Kingwood and Humble.” A third cautioned that when the developer sees the new floodway and floodplain maps, a bridge will likely become cost prohibitive.

The developers in question have not returned calls, but here’s what we know so far based on publicly available information and several Freedom-of-Information-Act Requests.

Bridge Rumored for More than a Decade

The Army Corps of Engineers first issued a permit for a bridge in 2009. Last year, it issued an extension of the permit that requires completion of the work by 12/31/2026.

Map shown on Page 25 of Corps Permit Extension shows a 100-foot-wide right of way with twin bridges north- and southbound.

However, the Montgomery County Engineer’s Office and Harris County Flood Control say no one has applied for any permits with them yet to actually build a bridge. Regardless…

Company Purchases Land, Sets Up Mitigation Companies

The landowner on the north side of Spring Creek has purchased a small parcel of land on the south side of the creek at the current terminus of the Townsen Blvd. extension. Thus they would control the land needed for a bridge.

Pacific Indio owns thousands of acres north of the creek and one little parcel south of the creek where a bridge would terminate. From HCAD.org.

Pacific Indio controls another company called the Townsen Road Association and has also set up two mitigation companies. The latter are significant because the Army Corps permit contains an extensive discussion of mitigation needs.

MoCo Transportation Plan and Developers Promotional Material Show Bridge, Road

The Montgomery County Transportation Plan shows the extension of Townsen north to the Grand Parkway from where Townsen currently ends at Spring Creek.

Detail from Montgomery County Transportation Plan posted on MoCo Engineer’s website.

Also, a sign on westbound Grand Parkway indicates an exit for Townsen, but the road does not go through yet. Does TxDOT know something we don’t?

Ryko, the developer associated with the Pacific Indio land has announced its intentions to build the connecting road and 7,000 lots.

Subsidiaries Formed

Another company, Skymark, also has considerable floodplain holdings in Montgomery County under a variety of corporate shells, such as Hannover Estates, Headway Estates and the CFW Family Limited Partnership. The Secretary of State SOS Direct database shows that Skymark principal Clinton F. Wong controls 231 companies including Townsen Holdings and Townsen Landing.

From Texas SOS Direct. Note notation in lower right. This is page 7 of 24 containing a total of 231 companies.

The Montgomery County Appraisal District website shows that many of Wong’s holdings border Pacific Indio’s. And Skymark owns most of the land south of Spring Creek where the bridge would be built. See more below.

References in Intercontinental MUD Minutes

June 2022 minutes of the Intercontinental MUD board meeting reference Townsen Mitigation, one of Pacific Indio’s subsidiaries.

The minutes also reference a settlement between the EPA and Skymark.

Purchase Offer Reportedly Turned Down

Harris County Flood Control reportedly offered to buy this land several years ago, but Ryko wanted “an insane amount of money.” This could have been an indication that the owner felt confident in its ability to develop the land and profit from it.

…But Project Would be Very Difficult to Develop

FEMA shows large floodways and floodplains on both sides of the creek that any road would have to go over or through. Keep in mind that the map below does not yet show the new Post-Harvey flood hazards. They will reportedly expand by 50- to 100%.

From FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer Viewer. Note: the image shows Pre-Harvey flood hazards. Post-Harvey maps have not yet been released, but should be soon.

Permit plans also show at least 9 other stream crossings along the way north. Those would expand, too, with the new floodplain maps.

Finally, the project would cross numerous wetlands.

Wetlands on Pacific Indio Property near the confluence of three major waterways: West Fork San Jacinto, Spring Creek, Cypress Creek. From from National Wetlands Inventory,

Legal History

The Bender Estate, which previously owned approximately 800 acres of undeveloped land in the northwest quadrant of Humble, granted a Right-Of-Way easement to Ryko Development to construct a road that would ultimately cross Spring Creek and service the planned development between Spring Creek and 99 on the Pacific-Indio Property.  

Skymark Development later purchased those 800 acres from the Bender Estate and started to develop them.

According to Jason Stuebe, Humble City Manager, after Humble began to re-construct Townsen, Ryko presented the easement to Humble and stated they intended to connect into Townsen Blvd.

This caused consternation as it didn’t fit with the city’s plans for reconstructing Townsend. All parties (including Ryko and Skymark) went to court. They reached a settlement sometime in 2018 that gave Ryko two years to begin constructing the roadway. 

EPA Delays Road

However, a cease-and-desist order from the EPA delayed the work; Skymark inappropriately filled in some wetlands elsewhere on its property. Once the EPA recognized that Ryko’s road was not affiliated with the wetlands issue, EPA allowed Ryko to proceed with constructing the road. 

In 2019, Humble City Council approved the plat dedicating the roadway as a public Right-Of-Way once completed. Then COVID delayed the road again. An exception to the settlement was made. Construction has since resumed, albeit slowly. 

New Townsen Landing development
Extension to Townsen Boulevard under construction where it stops at Spring Creek. Photo taken 9/26/2022.

Stuebe stated, “Because the road actually leads out of our jurisdiction, I have no further information on the status of its permitting with either Harris County or the state with regard to crossing Spring Creek. Once the roadway is completed, inspected and approved by the City Engineer and Public Works, it will become a right of way of Humble.”

I suspect that the bridge is more of a dream than a done deal at this point. Despite obstacles, attempts are being made to put all the pieces of the puzzle into place. But high hurdles remain.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/19/22

1908 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

 

Demolition of Old KMS Building About 75% Complete

Contractors have made great strides in the last week with the demolition of the old KMS (Kingwood Middle School) Building. As of last Saturday, a visual estimate put it at about 20-25% complete. I was shocked when I drove by there today. Demolition looked approximately 75% complete.

As any parent of any kid who has ever played with blocks or Legos knows, it takes much less time to destroy a structure than it does to build it. And the same holds true in the big leagues.

While it took two years to build the new KMS, the old one will come down in less than a month. I first noticed the start of demolition on Tuesday, November 8. By last Saturday, most of the southwest quadrant was gone. Today, virtually the whole west side is gone. And most of of the east side, too. This is an incredible ballet of men and machines.

Pictures Taken 11/18/22 Around 2:30 P.M.

Wide shot looking SE toward Cedar Knolls and Pine Terrace shows cleared area relative to remaining.
KMS demolition in progress. Closer shot looking in same direction shows extend of remaining work.
Reverse shot looking west towards Woodland Hills Drive over the remaining portion of KMS.
Wide shot showing virtually entire campus. Looking East.

After tearing down the building, contractors will still have to remove the foundation. But for now, that concrete is their insurance against getting bogged down in mud if it rains. Water is the enemy of construction … and of demolition.

Next steps after that. Humble ISD will have to build the athletic fields where there old school was and expand/finalize the detention pond.

To see this project from start to finish, check out photos in the posts below starting with land clearing two years ago this week.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/18/22

1907 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Flood-Bond Update Shows Progress Slowing…Even More

Harris County Flood Control District’s latest flood-bond update shows that spending reported during the month of September slowed again. In:

  • July, monthly spending was $66.4 million.
  • August, monthly spending was $20.7 million.
  • September, monthly spending was only $8.1 million.

In September, HCFCD spent less than half of what it did in August and one-eighth of what it did in July.

All this comes at a time when many projects are wrapping up engineering and moving into the more expensive land-acquisition and construction phases. Also, construction has not been slowed by heavy rains; we’re still on the verge of drought. So the trend is opposite of what you would expect.

Spending by Watershed

The table below shows spending by watershed reported in the last two flood-bond updates. Note: The update presented to commissioners is delayed about six weeks. In the November 15th meeting, commissioners received the “October” update which actually showed bond spending through the end of September. Calculating the difference from the last two updates shows how much money HCFCD spent in each watershed during the last reported month (September).

Transcribed from maps in August and September 2022 Flood-Bond Updates.

This shows that five watersheds received NO money. And Luce received only $250. So, a quarter of the county’s 23 watersheds had virtually no activity.

In case you’re unfamiliar with the watersheds’ locations, see the map below from the Bond Update.

September 2022 Flood Bond Update
From HCFCD’s September 2022 Flood-Bond Update

Spending Decrease in Perspective

Let’s put $8 million into perspective. The recent “running rate” through July was more than $60 million per month. September is about 1/8th of that.

If $8 million per month becomes the new “running rate” – with $3.9 billion more to go – it would take another 40 years to complete all the projects in the bond. That’s in addition to the 4+ years we’ve already spent.

Harris County originally conceived the bond as a 10-year effort.

Other Indicators

“Spending to Date” is not the only indicator that things may be starting to come off the rails.

  • Construction contracts awarded somehow decreased from 48 to 40 even though the value increased from $393 million to $415 million.
  • HCFCD awarded 11 new “agreements” for a total of $11.6 million during the month, but the totals to date don’t add up with those reported the previous month.
  • Professional services invoices paid decreased from $4.8 million to $253 thousand – a 94% decrease.
  • Reported “overall progress” didn’t budge. It remained at 23.5% of the total bond.
  • “Key performance indicators” decreased again – this time from .97 to .95. This is a project management measure of on-schedule performance. Above 1 indicates “ahead of schedule.” Below 1 indicates “behind schedule.”
  • “Home buyouts in progress” decreased from 331 to 285. But HCFCD has spent only 31% of buyout funding secured to date. So there are many more to go.

For the complete update, click here.

Lake Houston Area

The San Jacinto watershed is the county’s largest. It received less than $50,000, but had the deepest flooding during Harvey. The only spending shown in the update for the San Jacinto is for “drainage system repairs” at an unspecified location.

The update shows no other active maintenance projects and no active capital-improvement projects in the entire Lake Houston Area.

The entire watershed’s percentage of all flood-bond spending for the month was 0.58%.

Why the Slowdown?

Several sources have indicated a variety of reasons:

Management Turnover – HCFCD lost its top three leaders recently: Russ Poppe, Matt Zeve, and Alan Black. These architects of the flood bond had decades of experience between them. They had conducted input sessions in each watershed, had a deep understanding of the issues, and were imbued with a sense of urgency.

Less Experienced Management – Two of the three have been replaced by an academic who formerly managed the Subsidence District and an administrator from Washington DC. Neither has direct Flood-Control experience. Reportedly, it takes them weeks to make decisions that used to be handled immediately. The Subsidence District has a budget one-thousandth the size of the 2018 flood bond. Can you say “apples and oranges?”

More Layers of Management – There’s now a whole new department – County Administration – between Flood Control and Commissioners Court.

Delays in Other Departments – As previously reported, Community Services has failed to submit a plan for how to spend $750 million allocated to Harris County for flood mitigation by the Texas General Land Office and the US Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Drawdown of Flood Resilience Trust Funds – Also as previously reported, the County is already running out of money in the Flood Resilience Trust Fund. This was designed to provide backstop funding to keep projects moving in case grants, such as the GLO/HUD funds, were delayed.

A Nightmare Scenario

Although Democrats on Commissioners Court previously reaffirmed their intent to develop all projects in the original flood bond, that was with a close election hanging over their heads. With the election behind them and a super-majority in hand, they can now do anything they want with impunity – including cancel projects in the Lake Houston Area to fund projects in other precincts.

It hasn’t happened yet, but given the history of recent money-grab attempts, as with Garcia’s attempted diversion of $191 million from Cedar Bayou, it could. Stay tuned.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/16/22

1906 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

World Population Tops 8 Billion: Will It Impact Impervious Cover?

On Tuesday, 11/15/22, the United Nations estimated that the Earth’s population topped 8 billion people. I promptly wondered about the impact on impervious cover, a notorious link to flooding. However, I discovered it’s not as simple as you might think.

Impervious cover directly links to flooding. But the growth of impervious cover (new homes, streets, parking lots, etc.) does not directly link to population. Two studies cited below found huge variations in the growth of impervious cover related to LOCATION and LIFESTYLE. It doesn’t all depend on population.

Increasing Rate of Population Growth

It took Earth 200 thousand years to reach 1 billion people in 1804. Since then, we’ve added 7 billion people in a little more than two centuries. The last billion took just 12 years!

UN World Population Milestones

Population in Billions12345678
Year Reached18041930196019741987199820102022
Years elapsed200,000+126301413111212
Source: Wikipedia

Clearly, growth has accelerated. Such numbers demand reflection. They prompt at least two questions: Are we living sustainably? And does the increase in impervious cover associated with population growth necessarily lead to a corresponding increase in flooding? I can’t answer the first. But based on these studies, I’ll answer the second with, “Not necessarily. It depends.”

2007 Study Shows Widely Varying Rates of Impervious Cover Worldwide

A 2007 study published in the journal Sensors estimated impervious surface area (ISA) in 100 counties. Called “Global Distribution and Density of Constructed Impervious Surfaces,” the authors included Christopher D. ElvidgeBenjamin T. TuttlePaul S. SuttonKimberly E. BaughAra T. Howard, Cristina MilesiBudhendra L. Bhaduri, and  Ramakrishna Nemani. Among other things, they examined the impacts of hydrological and ecological disturbances associated with the growth of impervious cover.

They note that:

  • ISA alters the character of watersheds by increasing the frequency and magnitude of surface runoff pulses.
  • Increased overland flow also alters the shape of stream channels, raising water temperatures, and sweeping urban pollutants into aquatic environments.
  • Hydrologic consequences of ISA include:
    • Increased flooding
    • Reductions in ground water recharge
    • Reductions in surface water quality.

So Who Has the Most Impervious Surface?

The three countries with the most ISA are China, the U.S. and India. But our population varies dramatically from the other two. With less than a third of the population, we have roughly four times more impervious cover. That makes our ISA per person roughly 4-5X higher.

Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3841857/. Note: China and the US are roughly 9.5 million sq km, but India is 3.3 million sq km.

So there’s not a direct correlation between population and impervious cover.

While noting that the world’s most developed nations also have the highest percentage of impervious cover, the study does not go much beyond that. It does not quantify the relative rates of flooding in each country studied. The main objective was simply to offer a framework and methodology for measuring impervious cover that other researchers could build on.

An Urban Planning Perspective

A second study reviewed the study above from an urban-planning perspective and led off with these two images.

Source: “Which Countries have the most pavement per person?”by Daniel Herriges in Strong Towns, 2019. Image used under a Creative Commons license.

As you probably already guessed, the area on the left has the most pavement per person, despite appearing to have less concrete.

The area on the right is in Germany, which has about one third of the paved surface per capita of the U.S. Both countries are comparably wealthy and both famed for their highways. This article digs deeper into planning issues associated with:

  • Distribution of impervious cover
  • Infrastructure maintenance costs
  • Urban planning strategies

Impervious Cover Related to Auto Culture

Daniel Herriges, the author, points out that impervious surfaces exist for three major reasons:

  • Buildings
  • Streets/Roads
  • Parking

He adds, “Two of those three have everything to do with cars. And on nearly every measure to do with car usage, well, America is #1, Baby.”

Using the EPA’s interactive EnviroAtlas, Herriges created heat maps of several major cities. They consistently revealed that the highest impervious surface per capita is in suburbs, not central cities.

He continues, “The paradox this data reveals is stark: New York City is dominated by brick and glass and concrete and steel. But NYC residents have just about the least amount of pavement to their name of any Americans. Meanwhile, our greenest places are in one sense the least ‘green,’ when you account for the parking lots and six-lane stroads that come with large grassy lawns.”

What Appears to Be Green Can Be Deceiving

Herriges concludes: “…what appears green can be deceiving.”

He argues to “Let cities be cities and rural be rural.” In productive places that generate wealth…we can afford to deal with stormwater through more sophisticated technological means: pipes, pumps, levees, as well as newer technologies like green roofs and permeable pavement.”

But he argues, “Places that produce comparatively lower revenue warrant a different approach, a more natural and low-tech one. It’s not that verdant suburbs are always bad: it’s that we should deal with drainage in those places by keeping our paved footprint to a minimum, and absorbing as much stormwater back into the ground as possible.”

Unfortunately, he doesn’t delve into the factors that drive suburban migration, such as school quality and crime rates. Nor does he hint at what to do with the auto-oriented suburbs and commuting culture we already have. Still, he’s a brilliant writer who offers much to think about.

If he proves one thing, it’s that population growth doesn’t automatically lead to more impervious cover per capita and increased flooding.

But is it possible to wean Americans off automobiles? It seems that’s an even bigger ask than preserving natural floodplains.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/16/22

1905 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Laurel Springs RV Park Still Ignoring FAA Safety Requirement

No. Airplanes won’t be taking off and landing at the Laurel Springs RV resort any time soon. The headline has to do with an FAA rule that prohibits wet-bottom stormwater detention basins within five miles of airports.

Because of this pond’s location near IAH airport, the FAA and City of Houston require the stormwater detention basin to have a dry bottom within 48 hours after a storm. The requirement helps discourage birds, especially geese and other large waterfowl, from taking up residence close to the airport. That’s an important consideration, especially during the migration season, which we are in right now.

Wet-bottom ponds attract ducks and geese that create a hazard for aircraft taking off, landing or circling.

Problem Still Not Fixed

I first posted about this in May of this year and was told that the “Resort” hadn’t hooked up electricity to its pumps yet. Now, it’s almost six months later. And the pond is still holding water longer than allowed.

A retired airline captain who lives near the RV resort keeps calling this to my attention.

Evidently, he takes bird strikes far more seriously than the City inspector or resort owners. And little wonder!

If you google “airplane damage from bird strikes,” you find this horrifying collection of images.

Screen capture from Google search.

16,000 Bird Strikes in U.S. Each Year

The FAA records 16,000 bird strikes in the U.S. each year. And they cause $400 million in damages to commercial aircraft.

Ninety percent of bird strikes happen under 3,000 feet during takeoff or landing. This video explains the dangers and shows dramatic footage of the damage birds can cause when they come through a windshield, hit a wing, or get sucked into an engine. The greatest danger is when planes are close to the ground and pilots have little time to react or recover.

In extreme cases, bird strikes have even brought down airliners. In 2009, US Airways pilot Chesley Sullenberger reported a “double bird strike” that crippled both engines just after takeoff. Luckily, he managed to ditch his plane in the Hudson River without any fatalities.

Every-Other-Day Occurrence at IAH

Lest you think the problem is rare or trivial in the Houston area, the FAA maintains a publicly available online database that lets you customize searches. You can search by State, Airport, Operator, Date Ranges, Aircraft Type, Engine Type, Damage, and even the type of birds or other wildlife involved.

In the first three quarters of 2022, the FAA received 149 reports of bird strikes at Bush Intercontinental Airport. That’s out of 272 days. So…

Planes landing or departing IAH hit birds on MOST days.

Bush IAH reported 155 in all of 2019, 98 in all of 2020, and 139 in all of 2021.

Laurel Springs Basin Still Holds Water Too Long

The approved drainage plans for the Laurel Springs RV Resort stormwater detention basin show the note below.

screen capture from detention and drainage permit plans
Basin should be dry 48 hours after a 100-year storm. But today, it wasn’t dry 48 hours after a less-than-1-year storm.

The relevant portions of this 28-page advisory and its update explain that…

The FAA discourages land uses that attract or sustain hazardous wildlife within five (5) miles of airports to protect aircraft.

The detention pond for the Laurel Springs RV Resort falls within that radius from Houston’s Bush Intercontinental Airport and therefore the FAA and City mandate dry-bottom detention basins.

Laurel Springs RV Resort Detention Basin. Photo taken 11/13/22, 48 hours after storm.

The official gage at the San Jacinto West Fork and US 59 – just blocks away – recorded 1.32 inches of rain on 11/11/2022.

rainfall 11.11.22
Official rainfall at nearest gage.

That amount is one third of a 1-year rain, according to Atlas-14 standards. That’s far less than a 100-year rain which the resort is required to pump out within 48 hours. But 48-hours later, as you can see, it’s still there.

The checkered history of this RV resort deserves yet another investigation. At one time, there were four simultaneous investigations into its drainage. Seems they still haven’t gotten the message. While the risk of a bird from their pond bringing down an airliner is very low, does any responsible individual want to defend ignoring FAA advice? Those are lessons learned the hard way.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/13/22

1902 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

KMS Demolition Accelerates

Kingwood Middle School demolition accelerated this week. On Tuesday, November 8, contractors had nibbled their way into a small area near the front door. But on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, they took down about 20-25% of the building. They’re focusing on the west side right now and moving north.

If your kids enjoy watching big machines at work, share the pictures below.

Photos Taken Week Ending 11/12/22

Extent of excavation at end of week. Wide shot looking ENE. Pine Terrace on right.
This shot gives you some idea of the power of these machines.
Photo by John Sedlak shows contractor separating materials for recycling.
While two machines tear down building, a third separates material and loads it into dump trucks.
Demolition happens much faster than construction. What took months to build will come down in days.
KMS demolition in full swing. Reverse shot looking S toward Pine terrace.
The temporary detention pond did its job Friday afternoon and evening. It held almost 2 inches of rain.
All was quiet Saturday morning. Here you can see steel being separated from the debris for recycling.
Sunset by John Sedlak on 11/5/22 shows the gorgeous new KMS on the right. The old KMS on the left will soon become athletic fields and a larger detention pond to reduce flood risk for neighbors.

To see the history of this project (both construction of the new KMS and old KMS demolition), see the posts below:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/12/22

1901 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Louisiana Loses Hundreds of Square Miles of Wetlands

A new study estimates that Louisiana lost approximately 750 square miles of wetlands between 1984 and 2020. Using a first-of-its kind model, researchers quantified those wetlands losses at nearly 21 square miles per year since the early 1980s. Even after accounting for gains in some areas due to sediment transported by rivers, the net loss was still 484 square miles.

Jet Propulsion Lab Study Points to Role of Coastal and River Engineering

A new study, titled “Leveraging the historical Landsat catalog for a remote sensing model of wetland accretion in coastal Louisiana” was  published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. Authors of the 2022 study include D. J. Jensen,  K. C. Cavanaugh,  D. R. Thompson, S. Fagherazzi, L. Cortese, and M. Simard. I quote liberally from their work below which is reproduced under a Creative Commons Open-Source license.

To compile the data, the authors used NASA/USGS Landsat satellite records to track shoreline changes across Louisiana.

Some of those wetlands were submerged by rising seas. Others were disrupted by oil and gas infrastructure and hurricanes. But…

The primary driver of losses was coastal and river engineering.

Such engineering can have positive or negative effects depending on how it is implemented, say the authors.

Opposing Forces at Work

Centimeter by centimeter, wetlands are built by slow accumulation called “accretion.” Rivers and streams carry both mineral sediment and organic materials. Accretion uses those materials to make new soil. It counters erosion, the sinking of land, and the rise of sea level.

According to the authors, human intervention and engineering often hold back or divert the flow of sediments that naturally accrete to build and replenish wetlands.

For instance, reinforced levees and thousands of miles of canals and excavated banks have isolated many wetlands.

The levees and canals have cut off the wetlands from the Mississippi River and the network of streams that course through its delta. In a few cases, engineering projects have added sediment to delta areas and built new land.

The researchers mapped land change in coastal Louisiana from 1984 to 2020. Basins that failed to build new soil, such as Terrebonne and Barataria, experienced the most land loss – more than 180 square miles (466 square kilometers). Credit: Jensen et al, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

By analyzing Landsat imagery with tools from cloud computing, the researchers developed a remote sensing model that focused on accretion or the lack of it.

Restoration Possible

Basins that failed to build new soil, such as Terrebonne and Barataria, experienced the most land loss over the study period—more than 180 square miles (466 square kilometers). Other areas gained ground, including 33.6 square miles (87 square kilometers) of new land in the Atchafalaya Basin and 43 square miles (112 square kilometers) in the area known as the “Bird’s Foot Delta” at the mouth of the Mississippi River.

“The Louisiana coastal system is highly engineered,” said Daniel Jensen, lead author and postdoctoral researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. “But the fact that ground has been gained in some places indicates that, with enough restoration efforts to reintroduce fresh water supply and sediment, we could see some wetland recovery in the future.”

Economic Importance

Understanding wetland dieback and recovery is critically important because the Mississippi River Delta, like many of the world’s deltas, drives local and national economies through farming, fisheries, tourism, and shipping. “For the 350 million people who live and farm on deltas around the world, coastal wetlands provide a key link in the food chain,” said JPL’s Marc Simard, principal investigator of NASA’s Delta-X mission and co-author of the paper.

A map of soil accretion in coastal Louisiana showing higher buildup in parts of Atchafalaya and the “Bird’s Foot Delta,” where the Mississippi River system deposits mineral-rich sediment during flood periods. Credit: Jensen et al, Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences

Seventh Largest Delta on Earth

In several airborne and field campaigns since 2016, the Delta-X research team has been studying the Mississippi River Delta, the seventh largest on Earth. The team uses airborne sensing and field measurements of water, vegetation, and sediment changes in the face of rising sea level. The Landsat analysis builds on this airborne mission. Delta-X is part of NASA’s Earth Venture Suborbital (EVS) program, managed at NASA’s Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia.

Pioneering Technique

The new model by Jensen and colleagues is the first to directly estimate soil accretion rates in coastal wetlands using satellite data. Working with ground-based accretion records from Louisiana’s Coastwide Reference Monitoring System, the scientists were able to estimate amounts of mineral sediment from water pixels in the Landsat imagery and organic material from the land pixels.

The researchers said their approach could be applied beyond Louisiana because wetland loss and resiliency is a global phenomenon. From the Great Lakes to the Nile Delta, the Amazon to Siberia, wetlands are found on every continent except Antarctica. And they are declining in most places.

Wetlands are Most Vulnerable Ecosystems on Planet

The researchers called wetlands some of the “most vulnerable, most threatened, most valuable, and most diverse” ecosystems on the planet.

But they also said a new generation of spaceborne tools, such as synthetic aperture radar, can increasingly inform conservation policies on the ground. This is because satellites support near-continuous mapping of ecosystems at a scale and consistency that is nearly impossible through traditional surveys and field work.

50% Less Carbon Being Buried

The futures of our wetlands and coastal communities are intertwined with climate change, so sustainable management is critical. They store decomposing plant matter in soil and roots. Thus, wetlands act as “blue carbon” sinks. They prevent some greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and methane) from escaping into the atmosphere.

But when vegetation dies, drowns, and fails to grow back, wetlands can no longer bury carbon in soil.

At current rates of wetland loss in coastal Louisiana, carbon burial may have decreased 50% from 2013 estimates.

“Forty percent of the human population lives within a hundred kilometers of a coast,” Simard said. “It’s critical that we understand the processes that protect those lands and the livelihood of the people living there.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/11/22 based on a summary article by NASA in Phys.Org and the original.

1900 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Tropical Cyclones Act as Heat Pumps that Fuel Extreme Heat

While tropical cyclones are universally recognized for their destructive strength, new research led by a University-of-Arizona team published in Geophysical Research Letters, suggests another previously unrecognized danger: heat buildups after the storms.

The heat may plague residents trying to recover from storms after power has been knocked out. In addition to wind damage, storm surge and flooding, the heat represents a public health hazard. The researchers argue that preparedness information should warn the public about that heat risk.

About the Research

The researchers analyzed 53 tropical storms and hurricanes in the eastern Caribbean between 1991 and 2020. They also analyzed weather after storms passed the main cities in 14 Caribbean islands. In EVERY case, high-temperature anomalies followed passage of the storms – with values as high as 5°C (9 Fahrenheit).

The research team included: Zack GuidoTeddy Allen (Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology), Simon Mason (Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society), and Pablo Méndez-Lázaro (University of Puerto Rico). A summary of the research also appeared in Phys.org under the byline of Mikayla Mace Kelley.

“The research team analyzed 53 tropical cyclones in the eastern Caribbean between 1991 and 2020, and 205 interactions between the cyclones and 14 Caribbean cities. They found that the cities’ heat index values were always warmer than average after the storm,” says Kelley.

Guido, the lead researcher, added, “Everyone’s focus is on the destructive power of tropical storms and hurricanes — the storm surge, winds, flooding — and that’s obviously quite substantial, but our focus is on the combined hazard of storm and subsequent heat.”

The results also show maximum temperatures can occur several days after the storm’s passage, and can be observed in locations that are not directly impacted by the storm. The results suggest tropical cyclone preparedness should include informing the public about heat risk.

Giant Heat Pumps

Guido added, “Hurricanes are massive heat pumps, redistributing heat for a large spatial distance around the center of the storm, and they leave massive destruction in their wake that can knock out the energy grid. That combination is often dangerous because it slows recovery and poses risks to human health.”

Continental Locations?

I’m curious about whether the results apply to continental locations or if there is something intrinsically unique about island weather. I’ve contacted several meteorologists including the lead author to see if results can be extrapolated to the Gulf Coast. We certainly get our share of hurricanes. More when I hear back.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/10/22

1899 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Demolition of Old Kingwood Middle School Begins

Demolition of the old Kingwood Middle School (KMS) has begun. On Election Day, I drove by and noticed that the entire front entrance had been demolished. Removing the old school will create room for new athletic fields as well as a permanent stormwater detention basin that reduces the risk of flooding.

Next Step in Construction Project

Ever since construction of the new school, the KMS campus has functioned without athletic fields and with a temporary detention basin.

That’s about to change.

The first few pictures below show the extent of the demolition as of 11/8/2022. The last shows it on 11/9/22.

Beginning of demolition near the main entrance of old building, first observed on Election Day.
Reverse angle shot shows rip rap laid down at construction entrance. Rip rap knocks mud off the tires of dump trucks, to help keep sediment out of storm sewers.
Side shot, looking east, shows the second temporary detention basin, which will expand into the permanent detention basis after
Close up of the “jaws” used to rip apart structural steel.
This morning, 11/9/22, the demolished area had widened considerably.

What you see above, happened in a day and a half. At the current rate, demolition could finish before Thanksgiving in two weeks. Then landscaping of the athletic fields can begin, as well as excavation of the final detention basin.

For photos showing the progress of construction, see below.

stages of KMS construction
The final stages of construction. Remove the old building, expand the detention basin, and build athletic fields. From Nov. 2020.

Editorial comment: management of stormwater has been a major concern on this project since the beginning. I wish all owners and contractors built stormwater detention basins before construction or clearing land. Too often, it seems, some take the opposite approach and treat protection of neighbors as an afterthought.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/9/2022

1898 Days since Hurricane Harvey