Hurricane Ian Provides Proof of Concept for Sustainable Community

On October 6, 2022, NPR published a fascinating story by Scott Neumann about a Florida development that survived Hurricane Ian “with barely a scratch.” The community, called Babcock Ranch, is just north of Fort Myers. It didn’t bear the full brunt of the Cat 4 storm, but it did weather 100-mph winds with barely any disruption because of the way it was built.

The homes didn’t flood. And they didn’t lose water, electricity or the Internet. They did lose a traffic light, a couple stop signs and some palm trees, but that was about it, even though surrounding communities experienced structural damage and power outages.

Photo of Babcock Ranch from CBS 60-Minutes Story. See below.

Building Techniques and Standards Increase Resiliency

How can that be? The story cited:

  • The location – 30 miles inland to avoid coastal surge.
  • Buried power lines shielded from high winds.
  • Retention ponds ringing the development.
  • Homes elevated high above street level
  • Solar energy with natural gas and generators for backup.
  • Higher than normal building standards for the area.
  • A community center designed to double as a reinforced storm shelter
  • Master planning
  • Sustainable, “hardened” water and sewage systems.

One of the engineers who designed the community lives there. She said that it might not survive a direct hit from a stronger storm, but everything performed as planned during Ian for the most part. Hurricane Ian provided “proof of concept” for the community’s design.

She added “The developers of Babcock Ranch welcome imitators. Communities elsewhere in the U.S. might benefit from what has been learned here.”

America’s First Sustainable Solar-Powered Town

A local TV station quoted the developer as saying, “It just doesn’t make sense to rebuild the same way every time, knowing that the next time a storm comes by, we end up in the same place.” He proudly calls the 18,000 acre community “America’s first sustainable solar-powered town.”

Nearly 700,000 solar panels create enough clean energy (150 megawatts) to power nearly 30,000 homes. They not only power the growing community of nearly 2,000 homes, but also feed the region. They’re tied to the grid owned by Florida Light & Power.

“There needs to be a lot of thought that goes into how to build, if we’re going to be along the coast, in a way that is resilient,” said Sydney Kitson, the developer.

“Recovery Took Nearly a Day”

Even as residents breathed a sigh of relief after the storm, they were reaching out to help those in less fortunate neighboring communities.

The story of Babcock Ranch and Hurricane Ian was so remarkable that even CBS’ 60-Minutes did a segment on it. See it 10 minutes into the video.

In it, Kitson says that he jumped in his car and drove around after the storm cleared. “We lost a few shingles,” he said. “Recovery took nearly a day.”

I’ll bet a lot of people in Florida right now wish every developer thought like Kitson. He seems to have lived up to all the accolades heaped on his development. It all starts with respecting the power of Mother Nature.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/13/22

1871 Days since Hurricane Harvey

New UH Study Finds Subsidence Increasing in Houston Suburbs

A hot-spot analysis of subsidence in the Houston metro area during the period from 2016 to 2020 revealed total subsidence of up to 9 centimeters in some areas. Rates of subsidence approached 2 cm per year. (Two centimeters equals 0.8 inches. Nine centimeters = 3.54 inches.)

The scientific study, named “Surface Deformation Analysis of the Houston Area Using Time Series Interferometry and Emerging Hot Spot Analysis” appeared in a scientific journal called Remote Sensing. Authors included Shuhab D. Khan, Otto C. A. Gadea, Alyssa Tello Alvarado and Osman A. Tirmizi from the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Houston.

Correlating InSAR Data with Well Data

The authors correlated observations of surface deformation using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data with an analysis of 71,000 water and and 5,000 oil-and-gas wells in the Houston area. They collected the InSAR data over 5 years and the well data going back 31 years.

USGS calls InSAR an effective way to measure changes in land-surface altitude. The images are compiled by using radar signals with a very high degree of resolution bounced off Earth from orbiting satellites. By measuring the time for the signals to travel to earth and back, researches can measure altitude. And by superimposing images taken at different times, researchers can measure changes in altitude over time.

Documenting Link between Subsidence and Groundwater Pumping

Khan and his team sought to determine how much groundwater pumping contributed to subsidence (sinking ground). They performed the same analysis for oil and gas pumping.

The researchers found the greatest subsidence – which had not been previously reported – in some of the region’s fast-growing suburbs – Katy, Spring, The Woodlands, Fresno and Mont Belvieu. They identified groundwater pumping as the primary cause in the first four, and oil and gas pumping as the primary cause in Mont Belvieu.

From the study published as an open access article and distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License.

Otto Gadea, a graduate student from Khan’s team is quoted in Phys.org as saying, “We determined for the suburbs that excessive groundwater extraction appears to be the primary driver of subsidence.”

Population Growth Drives Groundwater Pumping

With population growth, groundwater extraction has become more prevalent in the Houston area. But subsidence is no longer substantial in areas that regulate it through entities such as the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District.

The Appearance of Regulation as Cover for Private Interests

Other counties have set up entities to regulate ground water withdrawal, such as the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District (LSGCD) in Montgomery County. However, the elected board chose not to include a subsidence limit in its desired future conditions. Many of the board members were backed by money from Quadvest, the area’s largest private groundwater pumper.

Website’s such as StopOurSinking.com have long linked excessive groundwater pumping in Montgomery County with a host of issues ranging from subsidence, flooding, pavement breaks, and foundation shifting to pipeline problems. However, the LSGCD Board has cherry-picked scientific evidence that supports unlimited groundwater pumping.

This latest study by the UH team will make that harder. It validates many of the claims StopOurSinking has made for years. Khan’s team even concluded that subsidence may even cause fault movement in the area.

Link to Fault Movement, Too

“If current ground pumping trends continue, faults in Katy and The Woodlands will likely become reactivated and increase in activity over time,” the authors write. No seismic activity is reported along these faults yet they say. They believe the movement is happening by “aseismic creep.” However, Khan and his team found evidence of fault activity in “damages to roads, buildings and other infrastructure in the vicinity of these faults. Displacement along some is measured by up to 3 cm/year.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/12/22

1870 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

September 2022 Flood Bond Update

Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) transmitted an update to Commissioners Court today that shows the progress of the flood bond through September 2022. The report shows slowing activity. Specifically:

  • No new construction contracts or other agreements were awarded in the last month.
  • Total spending increased only $21 million – from $1.104 billion to $1.125 billion.
  • Overall progress remained unchanged from August. It’s holding at 23.5% complete.
  • The amount of “Professional Services Invoices Paid” declined from $4.8 million to $1.7 million.
  • Home buyouts “in progress” declined from 331 to 305 (-26).

Improvements Since Harvey

The update also included a list of accomplishments since Harvey. HCFCD has:

  • Completed 229 project components, reducing the risk of flooding for more than 14,000 homes and businesses
  • Removed an estimated 4.7 million cubic yards of sediment from channels across Harris County through maintenance efforts – the equivalent of approximately 335,000 dump truck loads – to ensure stormwater can move through channels efficiently
  • Acquired more than 21,500 acres of land for projects, floodplain preservation and buyouts to ensure floodwaters can spread out safely without structures that can flood
  • Secured more than $1.35 billion in partnership funding while pursuing more funding opportunities at the federal, state and local levels.
  • Started the third batch of major maintenance activities along Cypress Creek.

Where Money Has Gone

Note that the September update (reported in October) actually contains figures compiled through the end of August. The map below shows where more than $1.1 billion has gone.

From Page 9 of September HCFCD Flood-Bond Update

Budget Priorities

Here’s how that spending looks in table form arranged in order from highest to lowest based on spending through the end of August (column 3).

August Flood Bond Spending
Transcribed from maps in July and August

This spending shows a huge disparity among watersheds. The ratio between Brays and Vince is 335 to 1.

The table also shows the effect of “equity prioritization” – concentrating on watersheds with a high percentage of low-to-moderate income (LMI) residents.

Eight LMI watersheds have received a total of $447.5 million for an average of $55.9 million each.

Yet the 15 other watersheds have received a total of $460.2 million for an average of $30.7 million each – roughly half as much.

The entire Lake Houston Area still has only two active capital improvement construction projects – valued at $1,000 each. Both are Excavation and Removal Contracts – one in Woodridge Village and the other in the Cedar Bayou Watershed.

Slowdown in Spending Bears More Investigation

The most worrisome aspect of this update is a continued slowdown in activity. At the current rate of spending, HCFCD would spend less than half the money in the bond in the next six years. Remember, we’re four years into a ten-year, $5 billion program. At $20 million per month for the next 60 months, HCFCD would spend only another $1.2 billion. That would cover only about half the projects in the bond.

However, note that in project management, sometimes pauses are built into projects for things such as approvals, right-of-way acquisition, etc. The real question is whether such pauses can explain the current slowdown. HCFCD is investigating to see how much, if any of the slowdown, is planned. More on that next month.

To see the complete bond update, click here.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/12/22

1169 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Splendora Development Exploding

Splendora is exploding with growth. On FM2090 west of U.S.59 near the Splendora High School, two new developments have already cleared 598 acres and have another 611 to go. Together, they could easily quintuple the population of a rural town that only had 1900 residents in the last census.

Development Well Underway

I first covered this story in January. The developers have made remarkable progress since then. Townsend Reserve, Ltd. and Forestar USA, have built drainage, utilities, stormwater detention basins, roads and model homes on most of the land already cleared. Now, they’re building the first homes for sale. Rural, sleepy Splendora will soon change forever.

Here’s the layout and photos of work in progress.

Splendora Developments on 2090
Green = acreage under development. Red = not yet cleared. From Montgomery County Appraisal District.

Forestar USA has named its development Presswoods. Townsend Reserve USA has simply called its Townsend Reserve.

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Looking east along FM2090 at expanse of two developments. Splendora High School on right.

Closer Look at Detention Basins

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Close up from shot above. Two detention ponds in Presswoods by Forestar USA bracket Gully Branch. Gully Branch drains into Peach Creek and eventually the East Fork of the San Jacinto.
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Another Forestar USA detention basin in the foreground. Looking West.
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Looking NE at a fourth detention basin on Townsend Reserve that parallels Gully Branch.
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Entrance to Townsend Reserve from FM2090 on right. Note yet another long detention basin that parallels the entry road on the left. Looking NW toward FM2090.
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First of the new homes going up.

Three things strike me about these photos.

  • Stormwater detention basins everywhere you look. Let’s hope the volume is sufficient. Engineers based their calculations on pre-Harvey runoff estimates. As other developers clear additional forests beyond these, drainage assumptions could change radically.
  • Huge financial risk. As interest rates continue to climb, will there be buyers for these homes?
  • Vast expanse of forests surrounding the developments. They seem endless. But not for long.

People hoping to find a quiet life in the country are gobbling up the very thing they seek.

Maybe this is inevitable. Developers tell me that smaller lot sizes and higher density don’t allow them to preserve trees anymore. Builders just plant one in the front yard when they’re done.

Population Impact

It’s not exactly clear yet how many homes the developers hope to build here. But in the last census, Splendora’s population was only 1,900 people. Even if they just built 5 homes per acre on 800 developable acres and the average household size was 3, that would mean 12,000 people could live here – more than 6X the current population.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/10/22

1868 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

West Fork Greenway Construction Resumes

Construction has resumed on the San Jacinto Bayou Greenway along the West Fork of the San Jacinto River between Woodland Hills Drive and US59. Once fully complete the San Jacinto Bayou Greenway will stretch for approximately 2.5 miles and create one of the longest continuously connected urban trail networks in North America.

Reason for Construction Pause

The Houston Parks Board began construction of the segment between River Grove Park and the Forest Cove Pool/Civic Center back in early 2021. However, they paused the project until the demolition of the last Forest Cove Townhomes in August.

Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin’s October 2022 newsletter said construction was resuming. So, I went down there today to see the progress.

Looking west toward Forest Cove pool at where construction has resumed.

The first thing you notice is partial demolition of the roads through the former townhome complex. Parts of Marina Drive, Aqua Vista Drive and Timberline Drive have been torn up. Along the path of the trail, contractors have ripped out one lane and left the other.

The remaining lane, I presume, will serve as the hike and bike trail.
Looking east along Aqua Visra Drive. West Fork on right. Martin’s press release mentions that parking for greenway users will be provided within the old townhome complex.
Looking west toward 59. The dedicated trail picks up again at the end of Aqua Vista.
And what a vista it is!
Looking west. Resumption of dedicated trail at the end of Aqua Vista Drive near Burning Tree Court. Note new, native trees.

Trail Route

Green length previously completed. Purple now under construction. From Houston Parks Board Bayou Greenways website.

San Jacinto Bayou Greenway will connect into and through Harris County Precinct 3’s Edgewater Park, currently in development, to the Spring Creek and Cypress Creek trail systems, also operated by Precinct 3.

Linear Park Features

Notable features of the San Jacinto Bayou Greenway include:

  • New off-street trails as well as the use of existing streets for the trail system
  • Trail connection for Kingwood residents at Woodland Hills Drive to access the greenway 
  • Parking for greenway users within the former Riverview Townhomes Community 
  • Planting of native trees, meadows, and wildflowers
  • Benches and seating areas
  • Interpretive and directional signage
  • Trash cans and recycling containers.

Martin says construction is expected to take another 3 months, weather permitting. During construction, the public should not enter areas surrounded by orange caution fencing.

Ongoing Maintenance Provided by Parks Board

Once construction is completed, the Houston Parks Board will continue maintenance of the San Jacinto Bayou Greenway, which includes weekly trash pickup, bi-weekly mowing of grass along the trail, upkeep of the trail and amenities, and any necessary flood cleanup. 

Part of Much Larger Network

San Jacinto Bayou Greenway is one of nine bayous being transformed as part of Bayou Greenways 2020, a public-private partnership between the nonprofit Houston Parks Board, the City of Houston, and the Houston Parks and Recreation Department.

The initiative is implemented in close collaboration with the Harris County Flood Control District, which manages the county’s bayous and creeks for drainage and flood risk reduction.

Bayou Greenways 2020 will transform 3,000 acres of underutilized land along nine major waterways and create a 150-mile network of connected parks and trails along Houston’s major waterways. Add the length of the trail networks in Kingwood and the Woodlands, and suddenly, you have what could be the longest connected urban trail network in the country.

This long linear park may be one of the first good things to come out of Harvey.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/9/22

1867 Days since Hurricane Harvey

GLO Posts Amendment 11 to Harvey Plan Affecting Houston Flood Victims

Amendment 11 from the Texas Hurricane Harvey Action plan will let the Texas General Land Office (GLO) take over unused money from seven Houston disaster relief funds. The money will be reallocated to a state-run Homeowner Assistance Program (HAP) currently administered by the GLO on behalf of Houston residents.

On 10/7/22, GLO posted Amendment 11 to the State’s Action Plan for $5.676 billion in Community Development Block Grants for Disaster Recovery (CDBG-DR) related to Hurricane Harvey. View the entire 461-page Action Plan Amendment 11 at https://recovery.texas.gov/public-notices/index.html. Or see the major changes below.

File photo from June 2021. Flood damaged home on Houston’s NE side, still needing repair.

Reallocation of $141 Million

Amendment 11 deals with the $1.2 billion in CDBG-DR funds previously allocated to and administered by the City of Houston. The amendment reallocates $140,930,253 in unused funds from seven City of Houston disaster relief programs. The money will be reallocated to a state-run Homeowner Assistance Program (HAP) administered by the GLO on behalf of Houston residents. 

Reason for the reallocation? The City programs repeatedly failed to meet contract benchmarks and deadlines.

The GLO acted after the City missed contractual benchmarks designed to ensure that funds for City of Houston residents are expended before HUD’s final program deadlines.

GLO currently administers the “City of Houston Homeowner Assistance Program,” nicknamed HAP, the acronym used by the state as opposed to HoAP, which the City used.

Latest City Pipeline Report

The City doesn’t publish statistics for all of its programs in its monthly “Pipeline Reports.” However, the most recent, dated 9/6/2022 shows the following:

The City’s HoAP program included three sub-programs: Reimbursements, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction.

According to the City’s own statistics, it helped only 704 homeowners in all three categories in the five years since Harvey. That’s out of 96,410 homes that flooded inside the City limits during the storm. That’s less than three-quarters of 1%.

  • Approximately one out of six families invited to apply for aid submitted applications.
  • Of those who completed applications, approximately two out of three were eligible.
  • But of those, only 807 applications made it to the GLO for approval.
  • The GLO approved all of those but 10.
  • So 9,422 applicants were left in the pipeline (10,229 – 807).

Reallocated Funds Will Stay in Houston

Six hundred and forty six days have elapsed since the City’s Housing and Community Development Department cut off applications at the end of 2020.

This whole issue came to a head several years ago when the GLO attempted to step in once before as programs were expiring. The City sued the GLO to keep the programs. A settlement let the GLO keep some and the City others. But it also stipulated that the City had to meet strict deadlines and quotas.

The City had to clear a certain percentage of its backlogs each month. The City missed those contractual deadlines repeatedly according to the GLO. And now the GLO is stepping in to help as many people as it can with the unused funds.

The GLO will only reallocate funds not already obligated to a project by the City. All funds will stay in Houston to benefit the residents of Houston. Funds should now get to residents in a faster and more efficient manner.

GLO has helped thousands of homeowners statewide in less time than the City has helped several hundred.

Reasons Cited for Delays, Slowness

The City blames the GLO for delays. However, many of the applications submitted by the City to the GLO early on were incomplete, lacked required documentation, or didn’t meet program requirements. Reasons cited for the Houston Housing and Community Development Department problems included bad hiring decisions, poor record keeping, training failures, refusal to accept help, political interference, unwillingness to follow GLO recommendations, making programs overly complicated, late starts, and procedural violations.

A HUD audit in late 2021 also ripped the department for conflicts of interest and failure to document recommendations.

The GLO maintains it has not slowed the City of Houston from using disaster recovery funds – only prevented the City from using them improperly. “Any delays are a result of the City of Houston’s misplaced focus on circumventing rules and requirements,” said a GLO spokesperson.

Attempting to Help Those in Need Faster

Caught in the middle are the most vulnerable among us.

According to U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) statistics, nearly 90% of the homeowners served by the affected programs have incomes less than 80% of the area’s median income (AMI).

Nearly two thirds of the Houston homeowners served by the GLO’s program make less than 30% of the AMI. In Houston, this would include families of four living on $26,600 or less.

Also, 64% of the homeowners identify as Black/African American and 25% identify as Hispanic/Latino.

Finally, about 87% of approved homeowners are female heads of households and at least 72% are aged 65 or older.

The GLO’s Houston HAP demographics are updated monthly and available online.

Main Changes in Amendment 11

City of Houston Impacts

The amendment includes the following changes. Funds remaining with the City of Houston for all disaster recovery programs would be reduced to $694,157,590 from $835 million.

The difference – $140,930,253 in uncommitted funds – would be taken from the following City programs, which would be reduced to:

  • Homeowner Assistance Program (HoAP) – $69,188,511.
  • Multifamily Rental Program – $400,855,752.
  • Small Rental Program – $12,943,423.
  • Homebuyer Assistance Program – $18,381,000.
  • Public Service – $20,000,000.
  • Economic Revitalization Program – $18,888,904.
State of Texas Impacts
  • State administered disaster recovery programs increase to $4,064,897,426.
  • The State-administered City of Houston Homeowner Assistance Program increases to $565,601,475.

The last total exceeds the $141 million because the State had previously taken over several programs that the City relinquished.

To Comment on Amendment 11…

The amendment triggers a federally required 30-day public comment period.

Submit all comments to cdr@recovery.texas.gov by 5:00 p.m. on Monday, Nov. 7, 2022, to be considered. Per federal requirements, the GLO must respond to public comments before the amendment can be sent to HUD for its 45-day final approval.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/8/22

1866 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Backward, Bait-And-Switch Bond Meeting a Bust

Those few who attended a meeting at the Humble Civic Center on October 3, 2022, hoping to get more details about the proposed new Harris County bond offerings were sorely disappointed. County Judge Lina Hidalgo, and Commissioners Adrian Garcia and Rodney Ellis are asking voters to approve $1.2 billion in bonds before the three have identified projects totaling $1.2 billion. The lack of defined projects and the lack of language in the bond that would guarantee a fair distribution of money should have all voters on high alert.

Bait and Switch?

I got the distinct impression voters are being set up for a bait-and-switch.

This reminds me of when Ellis bragged openly in Commissioners Court about how he tricked voters in the flood-bond election by redefining “equitable distribution of funds” after the vote. I just don’t trust these three.

Something Ain’t Right Here

My first tip-off that this meeting would be a bust was the nearly empty parking lot when my wife and I arrived five minutes before the start time. Clearly, the county had not advertised the meeting widely. Once inside, I noticed more strangeness.

  • Many of the displays sat behind tables – too far away to see any detail.
  • I found no one at the tables who would answer questions.
  • Staff outnumbered residents.
  • During most of the meeting, only three or four visitors at a time wandered through the cavernous space. I counted seven residents briefly at the high point.
  • Translators outnumbered residents most of the time.
  • I didn’t see one person entering suggestions at a table with a dozen laptops for that purpose during the hour I was there.
  • No one could produce a copy of the bond language. One staff member said it was “on the bond website.” I visited the site as we talked; it wasn’t. And still isn’t.

Equity, Lop-sided Spending, Minimum Distributions, Maintenance Not Disclosed in Bond Language

The bond language is, however, now posted on a sample ballot at HarrisVotes.org, the election administrator’s website.

See the jpeg below. It’s notable for what it doesn’t include. The bond language mentions nothing about “equity”, the lop-sided spending proposed by Hidalgo, or a minimum per precinct. Nor does it mention maintenance.

Three sentences of explanation contain no detail about where the $1.2 billion would be spent.

Nothing in the language would prevent Democrats from spending ALL the money in their own precincts.

If re-elected, they could change their minds about a minimum at any time, and blow it all on maintenance.

Compound Interest on Maintenance Expenses?

Let’s discuss maintenance. The official ballot language makes no mention of it. However, the bond website does.

Keyframe for YouTube video on bond website promotes spending $100 million for maintenance.

So does the motion approved by the three in commissioners court (see pages 3 and 4). The omission of maintenance in the ballot language is intentional.

That maintenance money would be paid back over 30 years WITH INTEREST. So fixing that pothole could easily cost 7X the out-of-pocket costs at today’s interest rates.

This is how $100 million worth of work turns into $700 million in debt.

And that’s why most bonds discourage spending money on maintenance.

Maintenance should be handled out of current income, not long-term debt. But Hidalgo, Ellis and Garcia propose borrowing to pay for it. And that’s just a bad idea. The potholes they fix now will need to be refilled a dozen more times before the bond is paid off. Who will pay for those repairs? And how?

Misleading Project Sheets

The meeting handouts, bond, and bond website discuss spending CATEGORIES. But they still do not mention one actual proposed project within any category – the main criticism of this bond package to date.

The County did have “project sheets” at the display tables. But staff wouldn’t let residents take them. I suspect I know why.

If you look closely, you can see that they were labeled “current” or “active” projects. That means the projects shown already had funding. They were NOT candidates for the PROPOSED bond. After lengthy, pointed questioning, a staff member admitted that to me.

Active projects masquerading as proposed projects.

Were such sheets simply displayed to create the appearance of a plan?

The visitors I talked to said they thought the lists contained proposed projects. They didn’t. They only contained examples of projects that could be covered – not those that will be.

Ellis, Garcia and Hidalgo haven’t yet made the effort to define one needed project, though they say the need is critical.

If it’s so critical, how come they can’t cite one example? This is such a contrast to the last bond election!

Free License to Spend Your Money

YES votes would give Hidalgo, Garcia (if both are re-elected) and Ellis a mandate to use your money when and where they want. And that would not include Republican-leaning precincts. One expert on Harris County government bond offerings told me that the lack of public input gives them license to do as they please. The language doesn’t even contain provisions that would force them to spend money within the categories they discuss.

As one finance expert told me today, “This is how Houston got into trouble. Once you get under that mountain of debt, it’s just about impossible to dig your way out,” he said.

Another bonding expert suggested, “A good slogan for this bond would be ‘Just Vote No. No Projects, No Transparency, No New Taxes – No Way!'”

Posted by Bob Rehak on October 7, 2022

1865 Days since hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

City of Houston Updates Infrastructure Design Manual

On October 3, 2022, the City of Houston announced an update of its 568-page Infrastructure Design Manual (IDM). The new IDM will govern all new construction within the jurisdiction of Houston after October 1.

Residents concerned about the possibility of new construction negatively affecting drainage should review it and related documents to make sure contractors adhere to requirements. At a minimum, neighbors should understand the outcomes that the City expects developers to achieve in case something goes wrong.

Chapter 9 addresses Stormwater Design and Water Quality Requirements. At a minimum, make sure you read Section 9-2, pages 183 and 184 of the PDF. The City lays out the high-level requirements and objectives for developer/contractors.

Goals Guiding Drainage Standards

Chapter 9 begins with several paragraphs that lay out the obligations of developers and contractors. I’ve condensed them for brevity below. See the original document for the exact wording.

9.1.02.A (1)     

Drainage criteria for newly designed areas must provide protection from Structural Flooding during a 100-year storm event. 

9.1.02.A (2)     

Recognizing that each site has unique differences, the City may consider alternatives (pipe flow, overland sheet flow, and detention storage) that still achieve objectives.

9.1.02.B  

Ponding in streets and roadside ditches of short duration is anticipated and designed to contribute to the overall drainage capacity of the system. 

9.1.02.C

When rainfall events exceed the capacity of the storm sewer system, the additional runoff is intended to be conveyed or stored overland in a manner that reduces the threat of structural flooding.

All proposed New Development, Redevelopment, or Site Modifications shall not alter existing or natural overland flow patterns and shall not increase or redirect existing sheet flow to adjacent private or public property. 

Where the existing sheet flow pattern is blocked by construction (i.e. raising the site elevation) of the Development, the sheet flow shall be re-routed within the developed property to return flow to original configuration or to the public right of way (ROW).

Except under special circumstances dictated by natural or existing drainage patterns no sheet flow from the developed property will be allowed to drain onto adjacent private property

No impact will be allowed onto adjacent property. 

9.1.02.C of CoH 2022 Infrastructure design manual

No sheet flow from the developed property may drain onto the adjacent ROW.  

Any increased quantity discharge should only be discharged to the ROW at the approved point of connection (which have enough capacity to handle the discharged) via a subsurface internal drainage system.

How to Review Changes Quickly

The Houston Public Works Director signed the IDM Cover Letter & Executive Summary on July 1, 2022. The executive summary discusses updates made to all documents during the review cycle. The IDM Redlines and Construction Specifications Redlines are available for additional background. Redlines highlight changes from previous versions.

All of the content described here is accessible on the City’s Design and Construction Standards web page.

For more information, read HPW’s announcement here.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/4/2022

1862 Days since Hurricane Harvey

NHC Gives 40% Chance of Formation to 91L Within 5 Days

Another tropical wave is moving into the Caribbean along the same track as Ian. As of Monday morning at 8 a.m., the National Hurricane Center gives it a 40% chance of developing within 5 days. Currently, the tropical wave is several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands and moving westward at 15-20mph. The NHC has designated this area of investigation as 91L.

Atlantic tropical waves and directions. Invest 91L is orange.

While Invest 91L looks fairly impressive on satellite images (see below), Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist says, “There does not appear to be any closed low-level circulation yet. This wave should reach the eastern Caribbean Sea around mid-week and the western Caribbean by this weekend.”

91L is the storm north of the Guyanas and Suriname on the north coast of South America.

Says Lindner, “Conditions generally become favorable for development along the track of 91L, but when compared to Ian, model solutions are much more varied with development potential and also much more scattered. Some models take the storm into Central America, others predict it will track toward Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

From Tropical Tidbits.

For now, watch and wait.

Orlene Moves Inland Over Mexico

In the meantime, the eastern Pacific is fairly active. NHC is tracking three storms. Two are moving northwest parallel to the Mexican coast as a third – Hurricane Orlene moves inland near Mazatlán.

Mid- and high-level moisture from Orlene will stream across our area later in the week. However, our air is so dry right now that precipitation aloft will likely not reach the ground.

Glancing Blow from Frontal Boundary Later in Week

Lindner also predicts, “Toward the end of this week, moisture may return to Texas from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a front that will drop into the eastern U.S. The front should only strike a glancing blow to Texas. Most of it will head more southeast toward the Tennessee Valley. So rainfall potential for Houston will remain low. Our dry pattern will likely continue.”

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center sees little to no severe threat.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/3/2022 at 11:30 am

1861 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Nature’s Confusing Balance Sheet

A headline in the New York Times last year said it all. “Our Love of Living Near Water Persists Despite the Dangers.”

How much value do you place on beauty? Serenity? Clean water where eagles fish? The experience of walking through the woods with your children and sitting on a quiet riverbank together? For many people, that means more than the risk of flooding. Until they flood.

Looking east along the San Jacinto West Fork toward Lake Houston from River Grove Park

In case you’re a pragmatist who scoffs at the value of visual poetry, a recent Canadian study found that people who lived within 250 meters of water had 12-17% lower mortality rates (excluding accidental causes) compared to those who lived farther away. The protective effects of living near water were found to be highest against deaths from stroke and respiratory-related causes.

Another study of 50 other studies systematically quantified the value of pathways between blue spaces and health benefits.

From “Mechanisms of Impact of Blue Spaces on Human Health: A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis” by Michail Georgiou, Gordon Morison, Niamh Smith, Zoë Tieges and Sebastien Chastin, Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 2021, reproduced in Environmental Health Perspectives under a Creative Commons license.

It’s no secret that people like to live near water. It’s soothing. And it has both physical- and mental-health benefits. Until nature unleashes its fury. That’s when nature’s balance sheet gets confusing.

The Minus Side of the Ledger

Living near water comes with high risks…especially along the Gulf coast. Just watch the news these days. Witness the destruction and loss of life that Hurricane Ian brought to Florida last week.

Remember the 30,000 homes on the Bolivar Peninsula destroyed by 22-foot storm surge during Hurricane Ike?

Harken back to Hurricane Harvey. The storm flooded 16,000 homes and damaged 3,300 businesses in the Lake Houston Area. It also killed 13 people in Kingwood alone!

At the peak, we got 6.8″ of rainfall in ONE HOUR! The water on the West Fork reached more than 20 feet above flood stage!

Mitigation has been as expensive as the damage. We’re spending hundreds of millions on dredging, spending $5 billion on more than 180 flood-bond projects, considering another $1.2 billion bond, trying to fund more than $3 billion in upstream detention projects, taking hundreds of millions out of transportation funds to address drainage issues, applying for $750 million in HUD mitigation funds, and looking at $30 billion worth of flood tunnels. Not to mention a $26 billion Ike Dike.

Recognizing Rewards but Not Risks

Why do we spend so much on repairs and mitigation? Because people build homes near water in places that aren’t safe.

Why? Because people want to live near water. And no one understands what the true risk is.

Why? Because:

  • We can’t predict future rainfall accurately.
  • Upstream development constantly heightens flood peaks which aren’t updated regularly.
  • Risky land is cheap, so demand is high.
  • Political lobbying makes Swiss cheese out of development and engineering standards to sustain profits and sales.
  • Buyers assume government regs protect them.

As a species, humans are notoriously poor predictors of risk. Just ask any casino owner.

But we have flood insurance, right? Wrong. Across Harris County during Harvey, 154,170 homes flooded, but only 36% of those had active flood insurance policies.

64% did not have flood insurance.

Harris County Flood Control District Final Harvey Report

The Most Sensible Solution

As a society, we seem to have settled on a solution to such problems. Whether we realize it or not, we:

  • Let people build what they want where they want most of the time.
  • Expect buyers to understand the risks and live with a level of risk they can afford.
  • Ask government to make things right after things go wrong.

But there’s a much simpler, more humane and cost-effective solution. It’s called conservation. And it’s based on an ancient wisdom – “An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.”

Preserving that risky land near water keeps people out of harm’s way. It also reduces both damage and mitigation costs.

Turning that land into parks, nature preserves and recreational space lets everyone continue to enjoy it. And if we do need to build mitigation projects in the future, we will have the land. We won’t have to buy out whole neighborhoods and displace people to build a detention pond or expand a channel. And we’ll have a much healthier, happier society.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/2/22

1860 Days since Hurricane Harvey