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$750 Million MOD Going to GLO

Correction: since posting this, I have learned that Community Services has not even started compiling a list of projects that will comprise the Method of Distribution. The department has only defined a “process” for compiling the list and is waiting for “direction from leadership.”

On September 8th, the Harris County Community Services Department (CSD) distributed a schedule showing that it would complete the first draft of its Method of Distribution (MOD) for spending $750 million in mitigation funding by the end of the month.

The Texas General Land Office (GLO) and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) allocated the money to Harris County earlier last year. The draft MOD will now hopefully go to the GLO for review and approval by the end of October.

What MOD Entails

Early last year, the GLO allocated the money to Harris County along with another $450 million to the Houston-Galveston Area Council.

A MOD lists projects and amounts. It shows how Harris County wants to distribute the money, i.e., who will get how much for what from the $750 million.

will this get any of the $750 million in CDBG-MIT funds from the GLO? — *US 59 at Townsen Boulevard during Hurricane Harvey*

The GLO must verify that all planned expenditures meet requirements of the funding allocated by HUD and Congress.

MOD Developed With Public Input

Harris County CSD held online and in-person meetings to share information with the public. English-language meetings were held on August 17th, 25th, and 31st. CSD also held a Spanish meeting on September 1st. They then gathered written and oral comments from the public. (The deadline to submit comments has passed.)

Next Steps

After a public planning meeting on September 8th, CSD spent the rest of September developing a draft Method of Distribution (MOD) for the $750 million. The department will now submit it to the GLO for review and preliminary approval. Steps after that include:

Publish Draft MOD by October 30
Nov 15-Dec 2 – 15-day public comment Period and hearing
Contract entities included in the MOD with funding level and gain confirmation of participation via Funding Acknowledgement Letter from entity
Dec 5-7 – Document Responses to Public Comment, add to Draft MOD document
December or January- Draft MOD document approved at Commissioners Court
January 2023 – Final MOD document submitted to GLO
GLO approval of final MOD and MOD allocated entities complete project information package process
March/April 2023 – MOD Entity project information packets submitted to GLO for review and approval
Kick-off contract development for projects.

So, the GLO has until the end of the month to review and approve the draft MOD. Once approved, CSD can publish it. Then CSD will hold more public meetings and submit any revisions to Commissioners Court and the GLO for final approval.

Pressure On to Develop Projects Quickly

Expect projects to begin sometime in the second quarter of 2023. But keep in mind that all dates are subject to change.

Starting to develop projects almost six years after Harvey will put some pressure on Harris County Flood Control and any other entities designated as recipients.

50% of the grant must be expended by Jan. 12, 2027.
100% must be expended by January 12, 2032 – 15 years after Harvey

Half of the $750 million must be spent within four years. To put that in perspective, Flood Control estimates it’s only 23.5% done with a 10-year flood-bond package four years after it was approved by voters.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/1/2022

1859 Days since Hurricane Harvey

New Woodridge Village Detention Basin About 12% Excavated, Engineering Study Almost Done

A new Woodridge Village Stormwater Detention Basin that could almost double detention capacity on the site continues to move forward slowly as housing starts slow. The trend at Woodridge seems consistent with other excavation and removal (E&R) contracts countywide.

Meanwhile, the first draft of a preliminary engineering study for the Woodridge site and Taylor Gully is complete and going through management review at Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD).

Status of E&R Contract on Woodridge Village Site

As of mid-September 2022, Sprint Sand and Clay had removed 57,785 cubic yards of dirt from a planned detention basin on the Woodridge Village property in Montgomery County. Sprint is working under an E&R contract with HCFCD. The contract calls for them to remove up to 500,000 cubic yards at a minimum of 60,000 cubic yards per year or 5,000 per month.

*Looking NE across new basin. Last month, it extended as far as the middle of the far pile of concrete pipes on the right.*

So the company, which began work in February, has virtually met its first year minimum after eight months. However, the rate has slowed somewhat in recent weeks as housing starts have slowed due to a rise in interest rates. In the last four weeks for which totals are available (8/22/22 – 9/18/22), Sprint has removed only 3,045 cubic yards. To date, that brings the total excavated to 12% of the contract max.

Housing starts in the South have been especially hard hit. According to the Census Bureau, starts in August fell 13.5% compared to July and 15.4% compared to a year ago. That depresses demand for fill dirt and makes it harder for Sprint to find buyers for it.

Under the terms of its HCFCD E&R contract, Sprint gets only $1,000 for removing up to 500,000 cubic yards, but has the right to resell all the dirt at market rates. That’s how it makes its profit.

Woodridge Vs. Countywide Data

To see whether Woodridge was an anomaly or part of a trend countywide, I asked HCFCD to show readers the bigger picture. Alan Black, Deputy Director of Engineering and Construction supplied the data below. The chart shows the trend in all HCFCD E&R contracts countywide going back 10 years.

All data is open to interpretation. But I see three main “regions” in the chart above.

The first is pre-flood bond – before August 2018. With the exception of a few blips, excavation remained below 5,000 cubic yards per month. That’s roughly equal to the average being removed from Woodridge Village each month.
The second is a huge spike that occurred after flood-bond approval. it peaked at almost 35,000 cubic yards per month as HCFCD readied engineering studies on more than 180 projects countywide.
Third, HCFCD had a sharp falloff at the start of the pandemic in January 2020. After things stabilized, we see a gradual rebuilding. It coincides with a housing boom and is followed by another gradual drop-off. The latter coincides with rising interest rates and falling housing starts.

Regardless, the trend in the last few months does not bode well for those concerned about finishing the new Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin quickly.

*Looking W.* *The new Woodridge Village stormwater detention basin at the top of the frame could eventually fill most of the area between the road on the left and the ditch on the right.*

Status of Preliminary Engineering Study on Taylor Gully

We should remember, however, that HCFCD always intended the Woodridge E&R contract as a head start on excavation while IDCUS finished its preliminary engineering study on Taylor Gully and Woodridge Village. The study began in mid-2021. IDCUS had 300 days to complete it.

IDCUS submitted the first draft of its results several months ago.
Amy Stone, HCFCD spokesperson

Since then, HCFCD staff has reviewed it and asked IDCUS to take a closer look at some areas, said Stone. At this point, the revised draft is working its way up to HCFCD top management for final review and comment. HCFCD has started preparing a presentation for all those affected in the area and exploring the best dates for a community input session.

Assuming HCFCD management doesn’t ask IDCUS for more revisions, we should know recommendations and next steps this fall. Following a public comment period, more changes may need to be made to engineering plans before design and construction start.

Folks who flooded in Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest as well as others farther downstream in Mills Branch and Woodstream Village eagerly await the findings. More news when it becomes available.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/30/2022

1859 Days since Hurricane Harvey

New Resources from the San Jacinto Flood Planning Group

The San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group (SJRFPG) has greatly expanded its website and published a new interactive dashboard for the 11 counties drained by the river. Both represent valuable resources for anyone in the region concerned about flood mitigation.

If you missed the virtual meeting this evening on the Group’s Draft Flood Plan, here’s another chance to review it and give public input.

Expanded Website

The Flood Planning Group’s expanded website branched out from a modest home page originally designed to solicit input and allow people to sign up for a distribution list.

Clicking on the About page now takes you to a treasure trove of information about the region; the counties and cities in it; major lakes and reservoirs; the flood plan; members; and committees.

The Meetings page takes you to a calendar and an archive of meeting minutes, agenda, and videos.

Resources takes you to information from the Texas Water Development Board about the flood planning process.

You’ll find the DRAFT San Jacinto Regional Flood Plan under Technical documents. You’ll also find a web form to submit public comment like Nephew Izzy did. They will accept public comments until October 29, 2022. (Here’s a summary of the recommendations in Chapter 5 that I published shortly after the release in August.)

But the magic of the evening was a useful new dashboard for helping to understand flooding impacts in the world around us.

New Interactive Dashboard

The dashboard contains volumes of data in a graphic format synthesized from multiple geospatial resources. Want to know what’s happening where? Click on a county then an object. Pop up boxes describe each point. You can also see a graphic count of the total matching resources on the right hand side.

Turn different layers on and off to highlight certain types of information:

Regional boundaries
Flood infrastructure points, lines and polygons
Counties
Watersheds.

Select from 28 different basemaps that range from street maps to topographical maps and satellite images. And zoom from the 11-county region down to your house!

Clicking the tabs along the bottom pulls up different features of the dashboard.

Existing flood risk
Future flood risk
Existing mitigation
Flood risk reduction actions.

For instance, click on the future flood risk tab. Zoom into an area of interest, such as Forest Cove. See below.

*Future Flood Risk Tab of SJRFPG dashboard.*

Different types of information pop up this time. For instance, you can see the extent of floodplains in solid colors. You can also see:

Residential and commercial buildings at risk
Roadways at risk
Industrial buildings
Power generation
Public buildings
Bridges and more

If you want to know what’s at risk where you live, the San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group has given you a great way to compile an inventory.

More to Follow

There’s much more here than I can fit in a post. Explore. Open eyes. Amaze your friends and family.

Just one caution. The flood plains are not based on Atlas-14. They still use pre-Harvey data. The dashboard is a work in progress and will be updated when FEMA releases the new flood maps this winter.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/29/2022

1857 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Land Cleared for Two More Humble Developments, Townsen Boulevard Extension

The new residential development going in along Townsen Boulevard West that I posted about last Saturday is just one of three new developments in northwest Humble. Of the other two, one will evidently be for light industrial use; the other for residential. A Townsen Boulevard extension toward Spring Creek is also under construction.

Townsen Extension

This conceptual plan by Skymark Development for Townsen Landing shows the Townsen extension in the upper left just below 94-acres designated for light industrial use. Skymark or its related companies own or owned all of the land in the colored areas below.

*Undated conceptual land plan for Townsen Landing in Humble by Skymark Development.*

You may have noticed an entrance cut into the woods at the northwest corner of the Townsen loop. Several readers have asked about all the recent activity there.

*Entrance to Townsen Boulevard extension at NW corner of Townsen loop. Reader photo used with permission.*

On Monday 9/26/22, I took several aerial photos of work beyond the entrance. They show a four-lane divided roadway that stops at Spring Creek. The images also show a floodwater detention basin and a large clearing already surrounded by silt fence. See below.

*Slightly NW of entrance on Townsen.* *Note drainage inlets surrounded by silt fences on roadway.*

Looking N. *The detention basin already has grass-lined slopes and backslope interceptor swales to reduce erosion.*

*Closer shot, still facing N, shows where road ends at Spring Creek.*

The four lanes end abruptly at the Spring Creek Parkway Trail.

I discussed that vast undeveloped area north of the creek more than a year ago. Suffice it to say, for now, that the same company owns that land and a small parcel shown in the foreground of the photo above. A bridge has been rumored for more than 10 years according to several sources I consulted. And a developer reportedly wants to build 7,000 homes on the far side of the creek. But the Montgomery County Engineer’s office claims to know nothing about it and Harris County has not yet responded to enquiries about a bridge. More on that area in a future post when I learn more.

Light Industrial?

Calls to Skymark were not returned. So it’s not clear who or what will go into that clearing by the detention pond. Harris County Appraisal District shows that the land is owned by Headway Estates, LTD, which is run by Clinton Wong.

Wong’s name is associated with hundreds of companies and partnerships in the Texas Secretary of State’s database, including Skymark, Headway Estates, Hannover Estates, and Townsen Landing. Wong and his companies own or control most of the land in the photo four photos below which comprise Townsen Landing.

*Reverse angle looking back ESE. CostCo in upper left* *and Deerbrook Mall in upper right.*

*Looking SE toward two clearings for new residential developments at top of frame. Aldine ISD Jones Middle School in the upper right.*

If the plans above remain unchanged, the big wooded area on the right above will also become light industrial. Light industrial land uses typically include final-stage or “clean” manufacturing, wholesaling, warehousing and distribution, and the sale and servicing of vehicles and equipment. Light industry includes a broad spectrum of land uses, some of which can be compatible with urban, mixed-use development.

*Looking East toward 59 at the entrance at Townsen Boulevard and areas cleared starting in 2015, two years before Harvey!* *Those cleared areas were originally intended to hold homes.* *Hannover Estates has owned the cleared land since 2013, according to HCAD.*

I have not yet obtained construction plans or drainage analyses for the light industrial area.

Saratoga Homes Residential Development West of Kohl’s

West and slightly north of the Kohl’s store on Townsen is another new development underway in Humble. Signs on Townsen Boulevard suggest most of it belongs to Saratoga Homes. But Saratoga has not returned phone calls or emails either. Most of this area is in the current 500-year floodplain. However, that could soon change with new Post-Harvey flood maps.

*Looking W.* *Extent of site work as of 9/27/22.* *Note large detention basin in foreground and Kohl’s on right.*

*Close-up of one corner of detention basin.*

*Looking W. Water and stormwater lines are now going in.*

*Looking N. Entrance to development appears to be off of Townsen. Note corner of Costco in upper right.*

*Looking back east toward Kohl’s and stormwater detention basin.* *Note the large drainage ditch that runs the length of this development on the right.*

That detention pond is more than a mile from Spring Creek and yet this area flooded during Harvey.

The flooding was deep enough that reportedly the developer is not even going to try to raise the area. Instead, he said he will raise the homes 6-7 feet.

In 2019, Jack Bombach, division president/CCO of Saratoga Homes, described his vision for the property at the Lake Houston Chamber’s Humble BizCom. “We bought the land in 2014 and are so thankful that we hadn’t started building,” said Bombach, “because, if we would have, Hurricane Harvey would have flooded everything we built.”

The Harris County Appraisal District shows that the area with the detention pond and a strip adjacent to the drainage ditch is owned by Hannover Estates LTD, a company controlled by Wong.

The rest of the cleared area appears to be owned by JNC Development, a company related to Saratoga Homes.

Floodplains

Much of the land under development in Humble is in a floodplain. See below.

Cross-hatched areas = floodway. Aqua = 1% annual chance of flooding. Brown areas represent .02% annual chance. #1 = Light industrial area. #2 = Saratoga Homes (see below). #3 = Single family home development owned by Wong companies.

Note: FEMA approved the floodplain map above in 2014. FEMA should release preliminary versions of Post-Harvey maps early next year. The floodplains shown above could expand 50% or more, according to preliminary guidance from HCFCD.

During Harvey, the gage at the West Fork and 59 registered the highest floodwater in northern Harris County – 20.5 feet above flood stage.

worst first — *Chart showing feet above flood stage of 33 gages on misc. bayous in Harris County during Harvey.*

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/28/22

1856 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Controversial Laurel Springs RV Resort Apparently Under New Management

While doing a construction update on the trouble-plagued Laurel Springs RV Resort, I learned that the property may have changed hands. At a minimum, it seems to be under new management. Excel Commercial Real Estate, a company run by the original developers, does not list the property on its website. A web search shows that another company named Jetstream Communities is looking for a property manager and an assistant property manager for the same RV park at the same address (1355 Laurel Springs Lane). The assistant manager posting is dated September 7, 2022, just two weeks ago.

About Jetstream Communities

The original developers of the property list many of their projects as “build-to-sell.”

However, Jetstream Communities says it specializes in the development, acquisition, and management of RV properties. There seems to be some overlap there.

But it’s not clear at this point whether the property has been sold or whether the two companies have reached some kind of management agreement. Neither was available for comment over the weekend.

Project’s Troubled Past

The original developers insulated themselves from liability through a limited liability company and limited partnership. The property’s TCEQ permit still shows LS RV Resort LP as the primary operator/owner. However, that permit expires in three weeks.

*Photo of TCEQ Permit taken at 7pm on 9/25/22 at job site shows original contractor (left) and owner (right).*

Under the original management, the property ran into a lengthy litany of problems:

A permit application with multiple irregularities
A half-sized detention pond by current standards
Cutting down trees on the County’s Edgewater Park
Emptying the detention basin and 450 feet of sludge into the park’s wetlands
A Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan that didn’t recognize the presence of the wetlands
Laying pipe through the wall of the detention pond to permanently expel water into the park
Violation of the TCEQ’s TPDES General Permit TXR150000.
Failure to observe FAA Regulations about wet-bottom retention ponds within a defined radius around Bush Intercontinental Airport.
A threatened lawsuit by the Harris County Attorney
Discharging stormwater onto adjoining property in violation of City of Houston permits
Promising to leave as much vegetation as possible then leveling everything on the site.
Having to move and rebuild the southern wall of their detention pond because it crossed over their property line.

For the last two weeks, little progress has been made on the site at a time when it should have been nearing completion. Usually companies are eager to start making money from properties after cash-draining construction. But the extent of paving at the north end of the site has not changed in at least three weeks.

The pictures below show the status of the construction and some of the “amenities” it will offer.

Grass Strips

Grass strips between parking slots will be wide enough to unfold a lawn chair.

*Looking NW across Laurel Springs Lane. Sidewalk is new in last two weeks.*

The original developer claimed 66% impervious cover, but I sure would like to see the calculations. See below.

*Photo taken from a legal height and enlarged. Note width of strips between parking spots.*

I must admit that concrete is a definite step up from the gravel parking lots found in many RV resorts.

Built-In Vibration

Those who miss those vibrating beds in motels will have freight trains rolling by 24/7 and the hum of high tension wires to put themselves to sleep at night.

*Note Union Pacific tracks and Centerpoint lines on left.*

Recreation Area

After being cooped up in a motorhome for a thousand miles, your dog can really stretch its legs in that 90-foot run behind the comfort station.

*From permit plans. AS1.2 Partial Dimension Plan Zone 1.* *3,555 square feet is 1/12th of an acre.*

On-Site Entertainment

Who needs vistas in the distance when you can see those mysterious reappearing black spots in the detention pond up close?

*Oily black spots keep reappearing but TCEQ could not determine source of contamination.*

Pool with Steps

*Swimming pool will feature steps and bat shape.*

More news as it becomes available on the potential ownership change. None of the parties were available for comment over the weekend.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/25/22

1853 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

New Development on Townsend in Humble Almost Finished Clearing

Developers have virtually finished clearing approximately 70 acres on Townsend Blvd. West in Humble. The land is immediately north of Sam’s Club and east of Walmart and Aldine ISD’s Jones Middle School. The image below from Google Earth shows the location of the land and the extent of clearing as of last April. At that time, about a quarter of the property had not been cleared. See red oval.

*Trees in red oval are now gone.* *See pictures below.*

The two photos below show the land in the red oval as of 9/24/22.

*Looking west at newly cleared area toward Townsend and Aldine ISD’s Jones Middle School.*

*Looking East toward Costco (upper left) and Deerbrook Mall (upper right).*

Two Large Detention Basins Already Built

Since my original post on this property, the developers have also built two large stormwater detention basins that comprise most of the eastern boundary.

*Two large detention basins sit between the development to the east and the land that developers will build on.*

*A second basin lies between the larger one above and the drainage ditch to the north.*

The basins are a bit hard to see in photograph above because everything is so monochromatic. But if you look closely, you can see backslope interceptor swales around them and drainpipes that lead down to the bottom of the basins. The purpose: to prevent erosion on the sides of the basins that could accelerate siltation in drainage ditches and reduce their conveyance. Such swales represent a best practice.

Leaving the stand of trees on the left above also represents a best practice. Why? The land slopes toward the trees. Had a heavy rain hit the site before the basins were built, the trees would have intercepted runoff and prevented silt from entering the ditch in the background by the power lines.

Three residential developers appear to own all parcels that comprise this cleared area. They include Hannover Estates, Townsen Landing LLC, and Headway Estates LTD. A three-year-old article in Community Impact quoting Saratoga Homes suggests that 357 single-family homes and townhomes are planned for this location.

Here’s what the site looked like in April 2022.

Near Floodplain

The site is near the commercial center of northeast Harris County. But unfortunately, it’s also near the floodplain of the San Jacinto West Fork and Spring Creek. So flood risk is high. And will be going higher.

*From FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer Viewer. Red oval indicates location of development.*

Note the dates on the map above. One portion is 2014 and the other 2007. Both predate Harvey and NOAA’s new Atlas 14 rainfall statistics. These floodplains could soon expand and take in portions of the new development.

Harris County Flood Control (HCFCD) has submitted preliminary flood maps to FEMA for review. FEMA could release the preliminary maps as early as next year. Preliminary guidance from HCFCD is that floodplains will likely expand by 50%.

If that happens, these developers could be caught between rising interest rates and widening floodplains. That will squeeze profits. I talked to one developer last week who is choosing to retire now rather than ride out another recession.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/24/22

1852 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Concerns Over Proposed Cypress Creek Flood Tunnel Outfall Location

The Kings Forest Community Association (KFCA) board has expressed concerns about the outfall location for the proposed Cypress Creek flood tunnel. Phase 2 of the tunnel study showed two potential outfalls in the Humble/Kingwood Area: one immediately upstream from the I-69 bridge, the other farther downstream near River Grove Park.

KFCA does not oppose the tunnel. But it does want assurances from the Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) that it will have NO adverse impact on:

The community’s flood risk
Potential damage to homes and businesses
Oilfield infrastructure
Water quality in Lake Houston
Bridges

Further, KFCA requested that “no adverse impact” be demonstrated with the latest flood data compiled after Harvey and that the data be based on mitigation improvements already in place, not planned efforts that could fall through for funding or political reasons.

KFCA concerns have to do with flood peaks shifted by both a tunnel and upstream development that could cause altered peaks to coincide and heighten flooding even more.

Feet Above Flood Stage Highest at US59 And West Fork

HCFCD has a long-standing policy of not supporting flood-mitigation projects for one area that would make flooding worse in another. But the KFCA board fears that the location of the outfall could make flooding worse in the Humble/Kingwood Area.

Said the board, “The tunnel would add stormwater to Lake Houston at a location that experienced the highest flooding in northern Harris County and had some of the heaviest damage as a result.”

Potential Damage to Homes/Businesses

The heat map below shows cumulative flood damage since 1978. The Humble, Kingwood, Huffman area appears to have sustained even more damaged than Cypress Creek to the west.

*Historical flood loss map of Harris County since 1978. Source: MAAPnext.*

Proximity to Humble Salt Dome/Oilfield Infrastructure

Additionally, the outfall location(s) contain hundreds of active and abandoned oil-and-gas wells around and over the Humble salt dome. The map below, from the Railroad Commission of Texas, shows their locations and density. The proposed Cypress Creek Tunnel would have to snake its way through these if it goes beyond US59.

*Active (green) and abandoned (white) wells over and around the Humble Salt Dome. Source: Railroad Commission of Texas.*

The 240,000 Cubic Feet Per Second shooting through this area during Harvey destroyed wells, tanks and pipes, exposing the public to pollution. The photos below illustrate damage to the Noxxe lease in Forest Cove near the West Fork.

Water Quality

The photo below shows pollution in Lake Houston from flood-damaged oil field assets.

*Oil on water by abandoned Noxxe lease in Forest Cove*

It took the Railroad Commission 4.5 years to clean up this mess after the operator declared bankruptcy. Yet the proposed Cypress Creek tunnel would outfall into the headwaters of Lake Houston, the source of drinking water for two million people.

Bridges

The Union Pacific Railroad Bridge had to be replaced after Harvey, affecting rail traffic for years. Reconstruction took until April 2020.

The I-69 Southbound Bridge was out of commission for 11 months due to scouring of the bridge supports. This caused detours and massive delays for tens of thousands. Repairs cost TxDoT $20 million.

I-69 repairs — *TxDoT repairs to the I-69 bridge cost $20 million.*

The West Lake Houston Parkway bridge also required extensive repairs after Harvey.

The Request: Demonstrate No Adverse Impact Using Latest Data Before Proceeding

The Kings Forest letter said, “While we are sensitive to the flooding issues along Cypress Creek, we believe that letting a Cypress Creek flood tunnel outfall at this location is not wise. It could lead to further damage and potential environmental/health dangers.”

The letter ended with a plea for HCFCD to demonstrate “no adverse impact” before proceeding with Phase 3 of the tunnel study and again at some future point if the Phase 3 study recommends construction of the flood tunnel.

“We also request that your “no adverse impact” evaluation reflect actual, current conditions,” said the directors. “Please DON’T base the evaluation on planned mitigation measures, which might not happen for political reasons.”

“Also, please DON’T base the evaluation on outdated conveyance data for the San Jacinto West Fork,” they continued. “Montgomery County is the second-fastest growing county in the region. It allows new subdivisions to use hydrologic timing surveys to avoid building floodwater detention basins. In 2019, Harris County Engineering and Flood Control proposed eliminating that practice, but MoCo Commissioners voted no. As a result, the Humble/Kingwood area faces constantly increasing flood risk from thousands of upstream acres being developed without sufficient mitigation.”

Those new developments shift flood peaks in a way that could potentially coincide with an altered peak from Cypress Creek.

See the full letter here.

To review HCFCD’s flood tunnel studies and leave a public comment, click here.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/23/22

1851 Days since Hurricane Harvey

In the interest of transparency, I should disclose that I am a member of the KFCA board.

Language In Engineering Report Has Nephew Izzy Baffled

The language of some engineering reports is more impenetrable than the armor of a battleship. My weird nephew Izzy floods badly. He was trying to slog through the Region 6 San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group DRAFT report and called for help today.

Marvel Comics It Ain’t

“Uncle Bob,” he complained, “This is @#$%&ing 295 pages long!”

“Put on your big-boy pants, Izzy,” I said. “Suck it up. I know it’s longer than a Spiderman comic, but you did apply for jobs as the Deputy County Administrator and Executive Director of the Flood Control District.”

“Yeah, but that was just to impress one of the dancers down at the Crystal Pistol.”

“Now the truth comes out!” I chuckled.

“Uncle Bob, you’re brain-shamin’ me.”

“I’m sorry, Izzy. Is there a problem beside the length?”

“Yeah, I can’t figure out what they’re trying to say.”

“That’s all?” I asked.

Izzy spat back, “They wanna spend $29 billion on the recommendations in here. You’d think they could afford $15 dollars an hour to hire a decent writer.”

The boy did have a point. But I explained, “Making it easy to understand wouldn’t make people think they were getting recommendations worth $29 billion.”

“They’re translating this thing into a dozen languages. You’d think English could be one of ’em.”
Nephew Izzy

“Is it too technical? Formulas and stuff?” I asked.

“No. It’s just confusing.” Izzy sometimes has trouble with the concept of “up.” So I said…

Izzy Cites Examples: Writer Paid by the Word?

“Give me an example, Izzy.”

He threw 295 pages down on my kitchen table. The dog-eared report was covered with notes. This was an amazing step up from Spiderman for Izzy. I was encouraged.

He turned to one of the pages. “Like this,” he said. “The most common types of projects in the region are channel improvement projects, which is inclusive of channel repair and channel conveyance improvement projects.”

My jaw dropped. Aside from the circular logic and redundancy, the subject and verb didn’t agree. “Projects is?” I asked. “Improvement projects include improvement projects? That writer must have been getting paid by the word,” I said. I was beginning to see Izzy’s point. “Show me another one, Iz.”

“Here!” he said, brightening now that he had an ally. Then he took a deep breath and said, “Due to significant increases in anticipated rainfall depth seen across the entire region due to the NOAA Atlas 14 as shown in Figure 2-4, change in rainfall depth was not included as a decision point for Flood Map Gap designations, as the change in rainfall amounts would qualify the whole region as a mapping gap since the effective FEMA mapping does not yet incorporate Atlas 14 rainfall.”

“I’m surprised you could even get that out in one breath,” I said. Izzy was turning blue and gasping. While he caught his breath, I counted up the words – 67. “There’s just no substitute for 67-word sentences when you’re trying to bluff your way through something you don’t know,” I said.

Impossible-to-Diagram Sentences

Izzy looked relieved. “So, I’m not so dumb after all, Uncle Bob?”

“I don’t think even my 4th grade English teacher, Mrs. Battaligni, could diagram that sentence, Izzy.”

“What do you think it means, Uncle Bob?”

“It means taxpayers should ask for their money back, Izzy.”

“Ya’ think? Cuz’ frankly I could use a tax refund right about now.”

“Don’t hold your breath, Izzy. It doesn’t work that way.”

“Well, how will I ever know if this will fix my flooding, Uncle Bob?”

Dream No Small Dreams

“It won’t, Izzy. The state has about a $1 billion budget that has to be split 15 ways. And these guys are recommending $29 billion in projects just for the San Jacinto watershed.”

“I know what that’s like.”

“How so?”

“I was sweeping up down at the Crystal Pistol last night and I told the manager I sure could use a new broom.”

“And?”

“He said it wasn’t in the budget. Maybe next year.”

“Maybe you should go to one of the Flood Planning Group’s open houses and ask them to explain.”

“When are they?”

“5:30 to 7:30 … two days next week.”

“That’ll never work.”

“Why?”

“Happy hour. My boss’ll never let me off. Too many beer-nut dishes to refill.”

Izzy Considers a Career Change

“Maybe you could get a job helping them write the final version of the report.”

“Ya’ think?” Izzy brightened and moved to the edge of his seat.

“They recommend spending another $200 million on more reports,” I said.

“Man, I could use some of that bank!” Then Izzy’s enthusiasm quickly vanished. Uncharacteristically, he confessed, “But I barely scraped by high-school English.”

“That makes you perfect,” I said. “You know how to write a 7-word sentence.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/22/22

1850 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Hurricane Likely in Caribbean Within 5 Days

A hurricane is likely in the Caribbean by early next week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says a tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity near the southern Windward Islands. The system continues to show signs of organization, and it will likely become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The disturbance should move toward the central Caribbean Sea later this week. NHC puts chances of formation through five days at 90%. (See the elongated red oval off the coast of South America below.)

NHC calls this Invest 98L. Invest stands for Area of Investigation.

*From National Hurricane Center as of 2pm EDT September 21, 2022*

Satellite Image Shows Interaction between 98L and Fiona

The Windward Islands are already seeing heavy rainfall and gusty winds from 98L. It will bring heavy rainfall to northern Venezuela and Colombia within the next day or two. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will fly into the system this evening to collect more information.

The satellite image below shows 98L and Fiona, the major hurricane that ravaged Puerto Rico earlier this week.

*As of 2:50 PM Houston Time, satellite image shows Fiona moving north toward Bermuda*

In the image above, you can actually see the outflow from Fiona impacting 98L. It is preventing thunderstorms from organizing in 98L at the moment, but as Fiona moves north (see below), conditions will become more favorable for 98L.

Fiona is Cat 4, Heading North

Fiona is still packing winds of 130 mph. That puts it just inside Category 4 as of Wednesday 9/21/22 at 5PM.

NHC predicts Fiona will clip Bermuda and then head due north. Fiona should hit Canada with topical storm force winds this weekend. In the meantime, pray for people in Bermuda. Cat 4 storms can create catastrophic damage and cause power outages that last for weeks or months.

*Probabilities for continued hurricane force winds along Fiona’s projected path during next 5 days.*

Invest 98L Expected to Track into Caribbean and Gulf

As of this morning, all major models except one showed 98L moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

*Source: TropicalTidbits.com via Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist.*

Along its route through the Caribbean, 98L will find plenty of warm water. The chart below shows deviation from normal sea surface temperatures for this time of year. This will help fuel the storm.

Most models forecast development of 98L this weekend as the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea. As the 98L reaches the central Caribbean, shear will begin to decrease. Additionally, oceanic heat content in the Caribbean is some of the highest in the entire Atlantic basin. This deep warm water will help fuel intensification.

NOAA’s HWRF hurricane model shows intensification from a low end tropical storm to major hurricane in a 24-36 hour period. Western Caribbean systems this time of year are notorious for significant deepening in a short amount of time.

Florida More Likely Target Than Texas at this Time

However, Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist says that, based on historical norms, hurricanes originating in the Caribbean this time of year tend to move toward Florida … less so toward Texas. The diagram below bears that out. It shows the points of origin and tracks for hurricanes developing in this 10 day period over 165 years.

“Hurricane impacts to the Texas coast this time of year tend to be from the Bay of Campeche and not from the western Caribbean Sea.”
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Historical norms aside, Lindner says 98L’s longer term track will depend on how it eventually interacts with weather over the eastern U.S. At this time, Lindner believes a frontal boundary will approach the Houston area early next week and help guide 98L east of Texas.

Still, keep your eyes on the Gulf and stay prepared in case something changes.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/21/22 at 5PM

1849 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Flood- and Garcia-Bond Updates

The Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) August update to County Commissioners on the progress of the 2018 flood bond shows a continued lopsided distribution of funds in favor of low-to-moderate income (LMI) watersheds. It also showed slowing activity overall.

Separately, the County has posted a new website and scheduled input sessions for Adrian Garcia’s proposed new $1.2 billion bond proposition(s). The dates of input sessions relative to the legislative deadline for bond language make it clear that the bond language will not reflect much voter input.

Lopsided Distribution of Funds Continues for Flood Bond

Five watersheds with a majority of LMI residents have received 39% of all the flood bond spending. LMI is defined as “below median income for the region.” Brays, Greens, White Oak, Halls and Hunting watersheds received a total of $430.4 million – an average of $86 million each. Together, the other 18 watersheds received $443.5 million – an average of $24.6 million each. Countywide projects received the rest – $217 million.

*Page 9 from the August Flood Bond Update.*

*Data transferred from map above and arranged by total spending per watershed.*

I’ve said it before. Facts do not support the political narrative that affluent watersheds get all the funding. To see what the funding in those five LMI watersheds helped buy, see the photos in these posts.

Flood-Bond Progress Appears to Slow

During the month, HCFCD:

Awarded only one new construction contract valued at $1 million.
Awarded three new agreements with other contractors but spent $0 with them.
Completed 19 buyouts compared to 21 the previous month.
Spent $2.4 million on buyouts compared to $6.6 million the previous month.

The total value of active capital improvement construction projects fell to $225.8 million from $231.9 million in July and $235.6 million in June. Out of that, the Lake Houston Area still only has $2,000 or 0.0009% of the total. Although that should improve in the future, it could also worsen, depending on election outcomes in November.

Total reported bond spending increased to $1.1 billion, up from $1.06 billion the previous month, an increase (with rounding) of slightly more than $40 million.

Overall progress of the bond program? 23.5% complete – four years into a 10-year program.

However, HCFCD believes it is only slightly behind schedule. The District’s key performance indicators stayed steady at .97 percent.

Major-Maintenance Flood-Bond Spending Holds Steady, but Still Lopsided

Major maintenance projects held fairly steady. HCFCD spent $78.4 million in August compared to $78.8 million in July. But there’s only one maintenance project in the entire northeastern section of the county – some drainage system repairs in the Jackson Bayou watershed with an unspecified value. It’s unspecified because the report lumps it together with two projects in the Halls Bayou watershed. The total for all three is about $1 million. Assuming each project got one third of that million, the entire northeastern section of the county received 0.42% of all the maintenance spending from the bond last month.

*Active maintenance projects reported on page 11 of full report.*

The largest group of maintenance projects is along Cypress Creek and its tributaries. There are 14 projects valued at $48.1 million. That’s 61.4% of the major-maintenance total.

Input Sessions for Garcia-Bond

Separately, Adrian Garcia has proposed another $1.2 billion bond – even though hundreds of millions remain from the 2015 bond. Unlike the 2018 Flood Bond, which specified projects in each watershed so people knew what they were supposedly getting, Garcia’s bond contains only three high-level categories split up into Propositions A, B, and C. They include:

A) Public safety: $100 million
B) Transportation: $900 million
C) Parks and Trails: $200 million

That’s right. Garcia wants to spend twice as much on hike-and-bike trails as public safety.

The county will hold four open houses in each of the four precincts during the next five weeks. It will also hold four virtual open houses. For a complete schedule, see HarrisCounty2022Bond.org.

The one input session in the northeastern section of Precinct 3 will be at the Humble Civic Center at 6PM on October 4th. Neither Kingwood, Huffman, Atascocita, nor Crosby will have its own input session.

Bond Language Will Not Reflect Voter Input

The county must post bond language by September 30 at the latest. But the input sessions run until October 20th. Early voting starts on October 24. And Election Day is November 8. So the bond language will not reflect much voter input. Neither the county, nor media, will have much time to digest voter input. It’s pure political theater.

The bond website simply says that “Input will be shared with Harris County Precinct staff as they make decisions regarding future projects.”
https://harriscounty2022bond.org

The bond website provides absolutely no detail about SPECIFIC PROJECTS or WHERE projects would be – despite promises made by the County Administrator to Commissioners Court.

In contrast, my records show that Harris County Flood Control under Judge Ed Emmett posted a comprehensive list of projects almost two full months before the Flood Bond Referendum in 2018.

Equity and Political Leaning Will Guide Distribution of Garcia-Bond Funds

Commissioners Ramsey and Cagle argued for months to delay the bond referendum until details could be nailed down, but Hidalgo, Garcia and Ellis refused.

During debate in Commissioners Court, it became clear that Hidalgo, Garcia and Ellis intend to use “equity principles” to divvy up the money, not just to prioritize the start date of projects as they did with the 2018 flood bond. Hidalgo, Garcia and Ellis even passed a motion that would give Democratic-leaning Precincts about 40% more money than Republican-leaning Precincts. For instance, Precinct 3 would be guaranteed only $220 million. That’s 18% of the total even though P3 has 47% of the county’s unincorporated area to maintain, improve and patrol.

Why Trust in Government is Eroding

During debate, Rodney Ellis even bragged about how he redefined “equitable distribution of funds” in the 2018 Flood Bond text after the election.

My takeaway: Hidalgo, Garcia and Ellis don’t want to be held accountable. They talk transparency, but this is nothing more than a slush fund. And this is why trust in government is eroding in my humble opinion.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/20/22

1848 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.