The photo below does not show the Royal Pines detention basin. It’s their main entrance at West Lake Houston Parkway.
And this was not a repeat of Woodridge Village on May 7th, 2019, when 7 inches of rain fell in one day. It was three separate rains totaling less than four inches spread out over four days.
Lake Royal Pines?
I’m not sure I’d want to buy a home in Lake Royal Pines. Here’s what it looks like from a lower angle.
Any more rain and the dump trucks would have to do double duty as high-water rescue vehicles.
Best Practices Call for Clearing One Section at a Time
Construction plans show that contractors appear to have clearcut 202 acres all at once. Seriously folks! This is why you don’t clearcut 200 acres all at once.
To their credit, the contractors subsequently put up extra silt fences in an effort to try to catch runoff. They also dug some trenches to channel runoff.
But despite the old high-school try, the measures still didn’t stop runoff from flooding the neighbor’s property for the second time in three weeks. The last time, though, it took less than an inch of rain. So at least they’re headed in the right direction.
Still, had they built the detention pond first…
Where the detention pond will go in the NW corner. Contractors appear to have graded their property toward this corner with nothing to catch the runoff except some flimsy fabric.Runoff cascading toward the NW corner blew through and over the silt fences onto neighboring property.Photo by resident.
The mud line on the silt fences above represents the high water mark from the peak of the storm. This silt fence appears to be about 36″ tall and water pushed over the top of it in places.
Looking west from over flooded property.Despite the trench to channel runoff, earlier, the contractor graded the slope toward the left foreground where the detention pond will go.
The large trench above (and below) likely intercepted a lot of runoff and carried it away from the neighbor’s property. However, contractors dug the trench in the middle of the property. Not near the neighbor’s property. And it’s a pale imitation of the natural depression that they apparently filled in. See below.
The USGS National Map shows that, before clearcutting, the home on the left green marker was more than 7 feet above the low point several hundred feet east of the NW corner.Looking South at trench.
Below, it looks as though they may have tried to start a second trench closer to the neighbors’ property, but if that’s what it is, it’s not nearly as deep or prominent.
Looking N. at trench (center). Notice second trench on the leftthat contractor started to dig but then filled in for unknown reasons.
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/20221126-RJR_1103.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=18001200adminadmin2022-11-26 20:09:572022-11-26 22:56:40This Is Not the Detention Basin
An article in the New York Times asserts that flood-risk perception is altering migration patterns among retirees. by by Susan B. Garland titled “Do you really want to rebuild at 80? Rethinking Where To Retire?” describes changes in where many older people choose to retire. The lead say, “It’s a small yet noticeable shift, experts say — but climate change is causing retirees to start reconsidering moves to disaster-prone dream locales.”
Basic Premise
Safety concerns are causing retirees to rethink whether they really want beach-front views. The author interviewed real estate brokers, retirees, and demographers.
One broker told her, ““At first, they will say they want big views and deep water, but then they ask whether a hurricane or a nor’easter will wipe out the dock. They want to be on the water but more protected.”
Anecdotal Evidence Backed by Wharton Study of 1.4 Million Sales
University of Pennsylvania study of 1.4 million home sales along Florida coasts confirmed the anecdotal account. Researchers found that the sales volume on land less than six feet above sea level dropped by up to 20 percent between 2013 and 2018. “Prices on homes in riskier areas declined between 2018 and 2020,” says Garland. Meanwhile, sales rose on higher, less-vulnerable coastal land farther inland.
The biggest declines came from areas in the northeast that had been hit by Superstorm Sandy. The study’s lead author, Prof. Benjamin Keyes in the finance department at Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, said, “On one hand, you have a strong demographic pull of baby boomers who are looking for warmer climate, and on the other hand, there is a newfound appreciation of climate risks.”
Frailty Makes Evac More Difficult
The caution of retirees may result from physical impairment. It’s also more difficult to rebuild when you’re 80 than when you’re 40.
Two thirds of those who died when Hurricane Ian struck Florida in September were older than 60, says Garland. She added, “Frailty and cognitive impairments make it difficult for older people to evacuate and prepare their homes for disasters.”
I would agree with that. The single largest cluster of fatalities in the Lake Houston Area resulting from Hurricane Harvey happened at a retirement community where 12 people died. They ranged in age up to 95.
Residents trying to escape as Harvey’s floodwaters rose
Garland’s well-written and researched article then goes into ways to assess climate risks and plan financially for them.
The perception that climate risk is increasing seems to be driving the concerns of retirees. And as the old saying in marketing goes, “perception is reality.” It’s something sellers must deal with.
Trends Crashing Head On
In the case of Florida real estate, two trends are meeting head on, says a professor of sociology at Florida State University in Tallahassee. “Two trends we know are happening — the impact of climate change at the same time the world is aging,” Dr. Hauer said. “Those two trends, I’m afraid, will crash head-on, and we will see more catastrophic impacts than if either one had happened.”
It’s unclear whether the same trends are affecting the Houston market. We don’t get as many hurricanes as Florida. And people move here mainly for jobs. Then they may stay here to retire. If you have personal or professional knowledge of this trend in Houston, please contact me.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/25/22 based on a New York Times article by Susan Garland
1914 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/KVE-2017-Flood.jpg?fit=1500%2C968&ssl=19681500adminadmin2022-11-25 18:20:572022-11-27 18:30:44Flood-Risk Perception Altering Migration of Retirees
Rainfall predictions associated with approaching Thanksgiving storms keep increasing. Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist now says approaching storms will bring widespread impacts from Thursday through Saturday. He also warns that heavy rainfall may lead to street flooding and rises on area creeks/bayous. Models now show a band of 5-7 inches of rain in places.
Thursday
Lindner says a surface warm front will approach the upper TX coast early Thursday and move inland. He expects showers to increase in coverage and intensity near the front, which may approach the US 59 corridor by midday before slowing and potentially stalling Thursday afternoon.
Along and south of the warm front be prepared for isolated severe storms and excessive rainfall with inflow off the Gulf. All the elements are in place for flash flooding “and warm fronts are notorious in these sort of setups for producing excessive rainfall,” says Lindner.
The best case for inland areas is that the warm front is held closer to the coast.
Friday – Saturday
Models have now slowed down the movement of an upper level low to our west. Lindner now predicts a break in the rainfall Friday morning, before another round of widespread, heavy rains move back into the area Friday afternoon and evening.
Expect grounds to become increasingly saturated and runoff to increase. Showers may linger into midday Saturday, before this system finally exits to the east.
Rainfall Amounts
Predicted rainfall associated with the Thanksgiving storms has increased compared to earlier forecasts. That’s because of the potential for slow moving and training thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and the longer duration of rainfall now expected into Friday and Saturday.
Widespread amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected on Thursday afternoon with isolated totals upwards of 5-6 inches.
Some models show a band of 5-7 inches near the warm front Thursday afternoon and this is concerning.
Hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches may be possible Thursday afternoon and this will lead to rapid street flooding and significant rises on creeks and bayous.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected Friday/Saturday on top of what falls on Thursday and this will only worsen ongoing run-off from the Thursday rainfall.
Runoff
Soils are primed for run-off with recent wetting rainfall over the region. Our main concern is street flooding, but Lindner cautions us about the potential for significant rises on area watersheds, especially if the higher totals are realized in portions of Harris County.
His greatest concern is for the southern and southeastern portions of Harris County where soils are the wettest and potential rainfall the highest. But he still isn’t confident enough to pinpoint the exact locations of the highest rainfall.
He says most watersheds can handle 3-4 inches. But if we start to exceed 5 inches, the concern for flooding from the bayous and creeks listed below will increase.
IF 5-7 inches, streams most in danger of flooding will be:
Clear Creek and its tributaries
Armand Bayou
Hunting Bayou
Halls Bayou (upper around I-45)
Little Cypress Creek
Willow Creek
South Mayde Creek (lower near Greenhouse)
Keegans Bayou (lower near Beltway 8/US 59/Wilcrest area)
Willow Waterhole
Brickhouse Gully
Spring Branch Creeks (Spring Branch, Buttermilk, Briar Branch)
If you’re out and about over the holidays, remember. Be wary of underpasses and bridges. If you can’t see the roadway, you don’t know how deep the water is. Turn around and don’t drown.
Also remember. Seven inches was the amount of rain Woodridge Village received on May 7, 2019. Woodridge now has much more stormwater detention capacity. But there are plenty of other clearcut areas around the area that don’t have much if any yet.
During Lina Hidalgo’s first term, hundreds of millions of dollars in flood-mitigation projects went to low-income watersheds while the Lake Houston Area went begging. So what does the recent election mean for the area’s flood-mitigation goals and strategies? What can we do to reduce flood risk with the deck stacked even further against us? It’s time to hit the flood-mitigation reset button.
Before the election, Democrats insisted that they still intended to complete all the projects in the 2018 Flood Bond. But now with a super-majority on Commissioner’s Court, they have the power to spend that money wherever they want with impunity.
We need to regroup and develop new strategies to attain our goals. We can no longer afford to rely so much on Harris County.
Understanding the Process
Flood mitigation has political, technical and financial aspects. They all demand coordination. After Harvey, Guy Sconzo, former superintendent of Humble ISD, and the Lake Houston Area Chamber formed a task force with area leaders to identify the causes of flooding and work toward solutions.
After initial successes, sadly, Sconzo died. It happened shortly after the passage of the 2018 Harris County Flood Bond and the State’s Flood Infrastructure Fund. Not long thereafter, the task force disbanded. People assumed that projects would just happen. They didn’t.
Roadblocks since Harvey
No one fully understood how long the process would take, all the steps that were involved, how much projects could ultimately cost, the intense competition for funding, and how projects could languish without a coordinated effort to remove roadblocks as they arose.
We must overcome our addiction to expectations of fair treatment and learn that we must fight for our homes and safety. We must become masters of our own fate and hit the flood-mitigation reset button now. So, what to do?
These are my personal recommendations.
Re-constitute the Lake Houston Area Task Force
Educate people about the risk they still face.
Acknowledge that most of our problems originate outside the county.
Update and prioritize our goals.
Acknowledge we can’t achieve them alone and work to build bridges to those who can help.
Coordinate with them and Harris County Flood Control.
Don’t count on Harris County for much help.
Finish studies already started (i.e., Taylor Gully, Atascocita).
Check on progress of all projects monthly to ensure next steps (i.e., construction bidding) happen promptly.
Identify roadblocks and work to overcome them.
Search for alternative funding and partners if necessary. UPFRONT!
Stop assuming projects will manage themselves. Hire a project manager to report monthly to the reconstituted task force.
Starting Points
Harris County Flood Control District began engineering studies long before Harvey for the projects you now see in construction. Then, when Harvey hit and voters passed the 2018 flood bond, they were ready to go.
Other areas had to start from scratch and are still running the gauntlet of feasibility, preliminary engineering, final engineering, and environmental studies.
In the the Lake Houston Area:
HCFCD started four drainage studies and finished three (Kingwood, Huffman, Cosby). Atascocita is still underway.
San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group finished its preliminary report.
Who is ensuring that engineering studies consider realistic funding alternatives? How much time, effort and money have we wasted by working in silos? Maybe a renewed Lake Houston Area Flood Task Force could help with those issues.
We need earmarks for funding at the state level. But who will fight for them? How will our representatives and senators know what to fight for? And how much the projects cost?
Any area with a completed study should have a project moving forward and be looking for funding. If it doesn’t, then someone is messing up the process.
It will only be Lake Houston’s turn if someone or some group advocates for the area as they did after Harvey.
The good news in all this is that a preliminary meeting of area leaders on the City, County, State and Federal levels was held on November 8th at Congressman Dan Crenshaw’s office. Everyone attending agreed on the need to reconstitute the Task Force and hit the flood-mitigation reset button. The group also examined a number of possible issues to focus on. More news on the new Task Force as it begins to set priorities.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/22/2022with thanks to Dr. Charles Campbell for the post’s photo.
1911 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Campbell-sunrise-12_3_18-small.jpg?fit=1500%2C1114&ssl=111141500adminadmin2022-11-22 18:52:202022-11-22 21:24:31Time for Lake Houston Area to Hit Flood-Mitigation Reset Button
Like damage, population is one of the “weighting factors” considered in the distribution of flood-mitigation dollars. Compared to 2017 estimates of watershed populations in Harris County, 2022 estimates show that five watersheds have lost population. But overall, the county has gained 155,254 people.
The map below shows the location of each of these watersheds.
Harris County Watersheds by Harris County Flood Control District
Reasons for Shifts Unclear
I had wondered whether the five major floods in Harris County between 2000 and 2020 (Allison, Tax Day, Memorial Day, Harvey and Imelda) would cause the most heavily flood-damaged areas to lose population. But that seems not to be the case.
The most heavily damaged watershed (Brays) lost the most population (in raw numbers). But the second most heavily damaged watershed (Greens) gained more than 16,000 people, the second largest gain.
I found no meaningful correlation between flood damage and population loss or growth. Nor do data suggest that flood-mitigationspending has much influence either. Contradictory examples abound. And statistical correlations rate as negligible to weak.
Five Watersheds Lost Population
Compared to the previous Census estimates from 2017:
Brays lost 5,822 people (0.8%)
Cedar lost 4,153 people (11.1%)
Hunting lost 1,112 people (1.4%)
Little Cypress lost 727 people (1.6%)
Vince lost 176 people (0.2%).
In percentages, Cedar Bayou lost the most population. Cedar was the sight of the Arkema disaster which blocked evacuation routes along Highway 90 during Harvey. The watershed currently has only about 37,000 people, ranking it 20th among the 23 watersheds in Harris County.
In five major storms between 2000 and today (Allison, Tax Day, Memorial Day, Harvey and Imelda), flood damage varied widely within those five watersheds:
Brays flooded 32,240 structures, the most of any watershed.
Cedar flooded 2,274.
Hunting flooded 15,763.
Little Cypress flooded 1,040.
Vince flooded 4,152.
18 Watersheds Gained Population
Eighteen other watersheds gained population and also had widely varying degrees of flood damage. These, too, showed little correlation.
Altogether, the county’s watersheds gained 155,254 people, despite 226,729 damaged structures during the five major storms.
Negligible Correlation of Flooding and Population Gain/Loss
The “population flees flooding” hypothesis didn’t hold much water.
Flood damage and “number of residents lost” correlated at only a 0.16 level – insignificant. Flood damage and “percent of residents lost” correlated at only 0.28, extremely weak.
A perfect correlation is 1.0. It indicates that for every unit of change in one variable, there is a corresponding unit of change in another variable. However, that was far from the case here. Variations seemed random.
The County has a strong draw: jobs. Also, family, friends, neighbors and support networks remain powerful attractions that keep most people anchored.
The new HCFCD data do not suggest why gains and losses occurred.
Top reasons for relocation typically include: greater safety, better schools, better housing, new jobs, and upgrading from apartments to homes.
LMI Population Trends
HCFCD also measures “LMI population.” LMI stands for Low-to-Moderate Income. The Census Bureau defines LMI as “families making less than the average for the region.”
Harris County has 42.6 % LMI residents. So 57.4% of residents make above the average for the region.
This is important because the LMI percentage plays a huge role in partnership grants from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Most, but not all, HUD grants go to areas with LMI populations higher than 70%. A notable exception is the pending $750 million HUD Harvey flood-mitigation grant. It only requires that 50% of the money benefits LMI households.
The latest HCFCD data shows that watersheds at bothends of the income spectrum lost LMI population. We still have the same eight LMI-majority watersheds we had in 2017. However, one deserves special mention.
Brays’ LMI population declined so significantly that it almost flipped from the “majority LMI” category to “majority upper income.” It went from 58% to 51% LMI.
Sixteen other watersheds gained LMI population. Some had huge flood losses; others had few.
The correlation between total flood damage and LMI Population Gain/Loss is .34, slightly higher than for the entire population but still considered “weak.”
Here are Harris County’s watersheds ranked in order of LMI population percentage.
As of 11/21/2022
My next post will discuss how the distribution of flood-mitigation funds relates to population changes and other factors. I will also discuss what the prospects for flood mitigation in the Lake Houston Area are during Lina Hidalgo’s second administration. Don’t miss it.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/21/22, based on data provided by HCFCD in response to a FOIA Request
1910 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/HarrisCountyWatersheds.jpg?fit=1500%2C972&ssl=19721500adminadmin2022-11-21 11:40:152022-11-21 12:46:59Five Watersheds Lose Population While Harris County Gains Slightly
Developers are working toward building a bridge over Spring Creek and a road that would connect Townsen Boulevard in Humble with the Grand Parkway in Montgomery County. However, City and County authorities on both sides of the county line say they know nothing tangible about the bridge yet.
I’ve talked to several engineers about this property. One said that if the bridge gets built, it will open thousands of acres to development. A second said that if the property gets developed, it would be like “aiming a firehose at Kingwood and Humble.” A third cautioned that when the developer sees the new floodway and floodplain maps, a bridge will likely become cost prohibitive.
The developers in question have not returned calls, but here’s what we know so far based on publicly available information and several Freedom-of-Information-Act Requests.
Bridge Rumored for More than a Decade
The Army Corps of Engineers first issued a permit for a bridge in 2009. Last year, it issued an extension of the permit that requires completion of the work by 12/31/2026.
Map shown on Page 25 of Corps Permit Extension shows a 100-foot-wide right of way with twin bridges north- and southbound.
However, the Montgomery County Engineer’s Office and Harris County Flood Control say no one has applied for any permits with them yet to actually build a bridge. Regardless…
Company Purchases Land, Sets Up Mitigation Companies
The landowner on the north side of Spring Creek has purchased a small parcel of land on the south side of the creek at the current terminus of the Townsen Blvd. extension. Thus they would control the land needed for a bridge.
Pacific Indio owns thousands of acres north of the creek and one little parcel south of the creek where a bridge would terminate.From HCAD.org.
Another company, Skymark, also has considerable floodplain holdings in Montgomery County under a variety of corporate shells, such as Hannover Estates, Headway Estates and the CFW Family Limited Partnership. The Secretary of State SOS Direct database shows that Skymark principal Clinton F. Wong controls 231 companies including Townsen Holdings and Townsen Landing.
From Texas SOS Direct. Note notation in lower right. This is page 7 of 24 containing a total of 231 companies.
The Montgomery County Appraisal District website shows that many of Wong’s holdings border Pacific Indio’s. And Skymark owns most of the land south of Spring Creek where the bridge would be built. See more below.
The minutes also reference a settlement between the EPA and Skymark.
Purchase Offer Reportedly Turned Down
Harris County Flood Control reportedly offered to buy this land several years ago, but Ryko wanted “an insane amount of money.” This could have been an indication that the owner felt confident in its ability to develop the land and profit from it.
…But Project Would be Very Difficult to Develop
FEMA shows large floodways and floodplains on both sides of the creek that any road would have to go over or through. Keep in mind that the map below does not yet show the new Post-Harvey flood hazards. They will reportedly expand by 50- to 100%.
Permit plans also show at least 9 other stream crossings along the way north. Those would expand, too, with the new floodplain maps.
Finally, the project would cross numerous wetlands.
Wetlands on Pacific Indio Property near the confluence of three major waterways: West Fork San Jacinto, Spring Creek, Cypress Creek. From from National Wetlands Inventory,
Legal History
The Bender Estate, which previously owned approximately 800 acres of undeveloped land in the northwest quadrant of Humble, granted a Right-Of-Way easement to Ryko Development to construct a road that would ultimately cross Spring Creek and service the planned development between Spring Creek and 99 on the Pacific-Indio Property.
Skymark Development later purchased those 800 acres from the Bender Estate and started to develop them.
According to Jason Stuebe, Humble City Manager, after Humble began to re-construct Townsen, Ryko presented the easement to Humble and stated they intended to connect into Townsen Blvd.
This caused consternation as it didn’t fit with the city’s plans for reconstructing Townsend. All parties (including Ryko and Skymark) went to court. They reached a settlement sometime in 2018 that gave Ryko two years to begin constructing the roadway.
EPA Delays Road
However, a cease-and-desist order from the EPA delayed the work; Skymark inappropriately filled in some wetlands elsewhere on its property. Once the EPA recognized that Ryko’s road was not affiliated with the wetlands issue, EPA allowed Ryko to proceed with constructing the road.
Extension to Townsen Boulevard under construction where it stops at Spring Creek. Photo taken 9/26/2022.
Stuebe stated, “Because the road actually leads out of our jurisdiction, I have no further information on the status of its permitting with either Harris County or the state with regard to crossing Spring Creek. Once the roadway is completed, inspected and approved by the City Engineer and Public Works, it will become a right of way of Humble.”
I suspect that the bridge is more of a dream than a done deal at this point. Despite obstacles, attempts are being made to put all the pieces of the puzzle into place. But high hurdles remain.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/19/22
1908 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/20221119-Screenshot-2022-11-19-at-2.20.46-PM.jpg?fit=1200%2C911&ssl=19111200adminadmin2022-11-19 18:11:202022-11-23 17:22:27A Townsen Bridge Across Spring Creek?
Contractors have made great strides in the last week with the demolition of the old KMS (Kingwood Middle School) Building. As of last Saturday, a visual estimate put it at about 20-25% complete. I was shocked when I drove by there today. Demolition looked approximately 75% complete.
As any parent of any kid who has ever played with blocks or Legos knows, it takes much less time to destroy a structure than it does to build it. And the same holds true in the big leagues.
While it took two years to build the new KMS, the old one will come down in less than a month. I first noticed the start of demolition on Tuesday, November 8. By last Saturday, most of the southwest quadrant was gone. Today, virtually the whole west side is gone. And most of of the east side, too. This is an incredible ballet of men and machines.
Pictures Taken 11/18/22 Around 2:30 P.M.
Wide shot looking SE toward Cedar Knolls and Pine Terrace shows cleared area relative to remaining.KMS demolition in progress. Closer shot looking in same direction shows extend of remaining work.Reverse shot looking west towards Woodland Hills Drive over the remaining portion of KMS.Wide shot showing virtually entire campus. Looking East.
After tearing down the building, contractors will still have to remove the foundation. But for now, that concrete is their insurance against getting bogged down in mud if it rains. Water is the enemy of construction … and of demolition.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/20221118-DJI_0339.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2022-11-18 15:54:472022-11-18 15:58:05Demolition of Old KMS Building About 75% Complete
September, monthly spending was only $8.1 million.
In September, HCFCD spent less than half of what it did in August and one-eighth of what it did in July.
All this comes at a time when many projects are wrapping up engineering and moving into the more expensive land-acquisition and construction phases. Also, construction has not been slowed by heavy rains; we’re still on the verge of drought. So the trend is opposite of what you would expect.
Spending by Watershed
The table below shows spending by watershed reported in the last two flood-bond updates. Note: The update presented to commissioners is delayed about six weeks. In the November 15th meeting, commissioners received the “October” update which actually showed bond spending through the end of September. Calculating the difference from the last two updates shows how much money HCFCD spent in each watershed during the last reported month (September).
Transcribed from maps in August and September 2022 Flood-Bond Updates.
This shows that five watersheds received NO money. And Luce received only $250. So, a quarter of the county’s 23 watersheds had virtually no activity.
In case you’re unfamiliar with the watersheds’ locations, see the map below from the Bond Update.
From HCFCD’s September 2022 Flood-Bond Update
Spending Decrease in Perspective
Let’s put $8 million into perspective. The recent “running rate” through July was more than $60 million per month. September is about 1/8th of that.
If $8 million per month becomes the new “running rate” – with $3.9 billion more to go – it would take another 40 years to complete all the projects in the bond. That’s in addition to the 4+ years we’ve already spent.
Harris County originally conceived the bond as a 10-year effort.
Other Indicators
“Spending to Date” is not the only indicator that things may be starting to come off the rails.
Construction contracts awarded somehow decreased from 48 to 40 even though the value increased from $393 million to $415 million.
HCFCD awarded 11 new “agreements” for a total of $11.6 million during the month, but the totals to date don’t add up with those reported the previous month.
Professional services invoices paid decreased from $4.8 million to $253 thousand – a 94% decrease.
Reported “overall progress” didn’t budge. It remained at 23.5% of the total bond.
“Key performance indicators” decreased again – this time from .97 to .95. This is a project management measure of on-schedule performance. Above 1 indicates “ahead of schedule.” Below 1 indicates “behind schedule.”
“Home buyouts in progress” decreased from 331 to 285. But HCFCD has spent only 31% of buyout funding secured to date. So there are many more to go.
The San Jacinto watershed is the county’s largest. It received less than $50,000, but had the deepest flooding during Harvey. The only spending shown in the update for the San Jacinto is for “drainage system repairs” at an unspecified location.
The update shows no other active maintenance projects and no active capital-improvement projects in the entire Lake Houston Area.
The entire watershed’s percentage of all flood-bond spending for the month was 0.58%.
Why the Slowdown?
Several sources have indicated a variety of reasons:
Management Turnover – HCFCD lost its top three leaders recently: Russ Poppe, Matt Zeve, and Alan Black. These architects of the flood bond had decades of experience between them. They had conducted input sessions in each watershed, had a deep understanding of the issues, and were imbued with a sense of urgency.
Less Experienced Management – Two of the three have been replaced by an academic who formerly managed the Subsidence District and an administrator from Washington DC. Neither has direct Flood-Control experience. Reportedly, it takes them weeks to make decisions that used to be handled immediately. The Subsidence District has a budget one-thousandth the size of the 2018 flood bond. Can you say “apples and oranges?”
More Layers of Management – There’s now a whole new department – County Administration – between Flood Control and Commissioners Court.
Although Democrats on Commissioners Court previously reaffirmed their intent to develop all projects in the original flood bond, that was with a close election hanging over their heads. With the election behind them and a super-majority in hand, they can now do anything they want with impunity – including cancel projects in the Lake Houston Area to fund projects in other precincts.
It hasn’t happened yet, but given the history of recent money-grab attempts, as with Garcia’s attempted diversion of $191 million from Cedar Bayou, it could. Stay tuned.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/16/22
1906 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Screenshot-2022-11-17-at-12.40.04-PM.png?fit=1094%2C1242&ssl=112421094adminadmin2022-11-17 16:42:132023-02-19 18:24:00Flood-Bond Update Shows Progress Slowing…Even More
On Tuesday, 11/15/22, the United Nations estimated that the Earth’s population topped 8 billion people. I promptly wondered about the impact on impervious cover, a notorious link to flooding. However, I discovered it’s not as simple as you might think.
Impervious coverdirectly links to flooding. But the growth of impervious cover (new homes, streets, parking lots, etc.) does not directly link to population. Two studies cited below found huge variations in the growth of impervious cover related to LOCATION and LIFESTYLE. It doesn’t all depend on population.
Increasing Rate of Population Growth
It took Earth 200 thousand years to reach 1 billion people in 1804. Since then, we’ve added 7 billion people in a little more than two centuries. The last billion took just 12 years!
Clearly, growth has accelerated. Such numbers demand reflection. They prompt at least two questions: Are we living sustainably? And does the increase in impervious cover associated with population growth necessarily lead to a corresponding increase in flooding? I can’t answer the first. But based on these studies, I’ll answer the second with, “Not necessarily. It depends.”
2007 Study Shows Widely Varying Rates of Impervious Cover Worldwide
ISA alters the character of watersheds by increasing the frequency and magnitude of surface runoff pulses.
Increased overland flow also alters the shape of stream channels, raising water temperatures, and sweeping urban pollutants into aquatic environments.
Hydrologic consequences of ISA include:
Increased flooding
Reductions in ground water recharge
Reductions in surface water quality.
So Who Has the Most Impervious Surface?
The three countries with the most ISA are China, the U.S. and India. But our population varies dramatically from the other two. With less than a third of the population, we have roughly four times more impervious cover. That makes our ISA per person roughly 4-5X higher.
So there’s not a direct correlation between population and impervious cover.
While noting that the world’s most developed nations also have the highest percentage of impervious cover, the study does not go much beyond that. It does not quantify the relative rates of flooding in each country studied. The main objective was simply to offer a framework and methodology for measuring impervious cover that other researchers could build on.
An Urban Planning Perspective
A second study reviewed the study above from an urban-planning perspective and led off with these two images.
As you probably already guessed, the area on the left has the most pavement per person, despite appearing to have less concrete.
The area on the right is in Germany, which has about one third of the paved surface per capita of the U.S. Both countries are comparably wealthy and both famed for their highways. This article digs deeper into planning issues associated with:
Distribution of impervious cover
Infrastructure maintenance costs
Urban planning strategies
Impervious Cover Related to Auto Culture
Daniel Herriges, the author, points out that impervious surfaces exist for three major reasons:
Using the EPA’s interactive EnviroAtlas, Herriges created heat maps of several major cities. They consistently revealed that the highest impervious surface per capita is in suburbs, not central cities.
He continues, “The paradox this data reveals is stark: New York City is dominated by brick and glass and concrete and steel. But NYC residents have just about the least amount of pavement to their name of any Americans. Meanwhile, our greenest places are in one sense the least ‘green,’ when you account for the parking lots and six-lane stroads that come with large grassy lawns.”
What Appears to Be Green Can Be Deceiving
Herriges concludes: “…what appears green can be deceiving.”
He argues to “Let cities be cities and rural be rural.” In productive places that generate wealth…we can afford to deal with stormwater through more sophisticated technological means: pipes, pumps, levees, as well as newer technologies like green roofs and permeable pavement.”
But he argues, “Places that produce comparatively lower revenue warrant a different approach, a more natural and low-tech one. It’s not that verdant suburbs are always bad: it’s that we should deal with drainage in those places by keeping our paved footprint to a minimum, and absorbing as much stormwater back into the ground as possible.”
Unfortunately, he doesn’t delve into the factors that drive suburban migration, such as school quality and crime rates. Nor does he hint at what to do with the auto-oriented suburbs and commuting culture we already have. Still, he’s a brilliant writer who offers much to think about.
If he proves one thing, it’s that population growth doesn’t automatically lead to more impervious cover per capita and increased flooding.
But is it possible to wean Americans off automobiles? It seems that’s an even bigger ask than preserving natural floodplains.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/16/22
1905 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/20221116-Screenshot-2022-11-16-at-12.33.11-PM.jpg?fit=1200%2C472&ssl=14721200adminadmin2022-11-16 15:49:352022-11-16 16:23:24World Population Tops 8 Billion: Will It Impact Impervious Cover?
No. Airplanes won’t be taking off and landing at the Laurel Springs RV resort any time soon. The headline has to do with an FAA rule that prohibits wet-bottom stormwater detention basins within five miles of airports.
Because of this pond’s location near IAH airport, the FAA and City of Houston require the stormwater detention basin to have a dry bottom within 48 hours after a storm. The requirement helps discourage birds, especially geese and other large waterfowl, from taking up residence close to the airport. That’s an important consideration, especially during the migration season, which we are in right now.
Wet-bottom ponds attract ducks and geese that create a hazard for aircraft taking off, landing or circling.
Problem Still Not Fixed
I first posted about this in May of this year and was told that the “Resort” hadn’t hooked up electricity to its pumps yet. Now, it’s almost six months later. And the pond is still holding water longer than allowed.
A retired airline captain who lives near the RV resort keeps calling this to my attention.
Evidently, he takes bird strikes far more seriously than the City inspector or resort owners. And little wonder!
If you google “airplane damage from bird strikes,” you find this horrifying collection of images.
Ninety percent of bird strikes happen under 3,000 feet during takeoff or landing. This video explains the dangers and shows dramatic footage of the damage birds can cause when they come through a windshield, hit a wing, or get sucked into an engine. The greatest danger is when planes are close to the ground and pilots have little time to react or recover.
In extreme cases, bird strikes have even brought down airliners. In 2009, US Airways pilot Chesley Sullenberger reported a “double bird strike” that crippled both engines just after takeoff. Luckily, he managed to ditch his plane in the Hudson River without any fatalities.
Every-Other-Day Occurrence at IAH
Lest you think the problem is rare or trivial in the Houston area, the FAA maintains a publicly available online database that lets you customize searches. You can search by State, Airport, Operator, Date Ranges, Aircraft Type, Engine Type, Damage, and even the type of birds or other wildlife involved.
In the first three quarters of 2022, the FAA received 149 reports of bird strikes at Bush Intercontinental Airport. That’s out of 272 days. So…
Planes landing or departing IAH hit birds on MOST days.
Bush IAH reported 155 in all of 2019, 98 in all of 2020, and 139 in all of 2021.
Laurel Springs Basin Still Holds Water Too Long
The approved drainage plans for the Laurel Springs RV Resort stormwater detention basin show the note below.
Basin should be dry 48 hours after a 100-year storm. But today, it wasn’t dry 48 hours after a less-than-1-year storm.
The FAA discourages land uses that attract or sustain hazardous wildlife within five (5) miles of airports to protect aircraft.
The detention pond for the Laurel Springs RV Resort falls within that radius from Houston’s Bush Intercontinental Airport and therefore the FAA and City mandate dry-bottom detention basins.
Laurel Springs RV Resort Detention Basin. Photo taken 11/13/22, 48 hours after storm.
The official gage at the San Jacinto West Fork and US 59 – just blocks away – recorded 1.32 inches of rain on 11/11/2022.
Official rainfall at nearest gage.
That amount is one third of a 1-year rain, according to Atlas-14 standards. That’s far less than a 100-year rain which the resort is required to pump out within 48 hours. But 48-hours later, as you can see, it’s still there.
The checkered history of this RV resort deserves yet another investigation. At one time, there were four simultaneous investigations into its drainage. Seems they still haven’t gotten the message. While the risk of a bird from their pond bringing down an airliner is very low, does any responsible individual want to defend ignoring FAA advice? Those are lessons learned the hard way.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/13/22
1902 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/20221113-DJI_0314.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2022-11-13 18:09:222022-11-15 18:17:25Laurel Springs RV Park Still Ignoring FAA Safety Requirement
