2023 Legislature Scorecard on Flood Issues: 2 Wins, 4 Losses, 1 Toss-up

The 2023 legislature scorecard, just five years after Hurricane Harvey, shows that flooding is fast becoming forgotten in Texas. Of the seven issues I tracked, the Lake Houston Area had two wins, four losses, and one that could be ruled a coin toss depending on your point of view.

In the Win Column

Let’s look at the good news first.

HB 1: More Floodgates for Lake Houston

Due to last minute heroics, HB 1 contained enough money earmarked for more gates to keep the project alive. A last minute phone-call campaign by hundreds of citizens making thousands of phone calls to key state legislators in the House and Senate succeeded in getting riders attached to the budget bill.

Few projects have inspired more hope among residents in the northeastern part of Harris County than the one to add more floodgates to the Lake Houston Dam. The Lake Houston Area Flood Task Force identified the project as one of the top priorities for the area.

The idea: to release water both earlier and faster in advance of major storms to create more storage in Lake Houston. Right now, Lake Conroe can release water 15 times faster than Lake Houston. And the release from Lake Conroe during Harvey was widely seen as one of the contributing factors to the flooding of so many homes and businesses in the Lake Houston Area.

The governor signed HB 1 on 6/18/23. It becomes effective on 9/1/23. With funding secured, Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin says final design on the gates is proceeding.

Lake Houston Gates Project
Lake Houston Gates Project
SB 1397: TCEQ Reforms

The TCEQ was under sunset review this year. No one proposed eliminating the TCEQ. But many people had ideas to improve it. They focused on two main areas: increasing transparency and improving enforcement.

The Sunset Commission recommended measures to improve public outreach, public notices, community input, and dissemination of public information, including the publication of best practices for sand mining.

The Commission also recommended updating the TCEQ’s enforcement practices to better focus on the riskiest actors and ensure staff treat potential violations consistently and based on severity. 

Breach in dike of Triple PG mine remained open for months, sending wastewater into Lake Houston. Texas Attorney General is now suing the mine.

The governor signed SB 1397 on 6/18/23. It becomes effective on 9/1/23.

In the Loss Column

SB 2431/HB 5338: Gulf Coast Resiliency District

These companion bills would have transformed the Harris County Flood Control District into the Gulf Coast Resiliency District. The new District would have been governed by a board appointed by the Governor instead of management hired by Harris County Commissioners.

The idea: to create regional solutions that benefitted all residents of Harris County, not just those that scored high on an equity formula.

The County fought the bill(s) tooth and nail. Each failed to get out of committee.

HB 1093: Financial Surety Guaranteeing Sand Mine Cleanup

The bill died in the House Natural Resources committee. It never even got a public hearing.

This bill would have required sand mining companies to post financial surety that would guarantee cleanup of mines before they were abandoned. Abandoned mines on both the San Jacinto East and West Forks are littered with the remains of once thriving operations. But when the sand played out, the miners walked away, leaving a legacy of blight for the public to clean up.

abandoned dredge
Abandoned dredge in mine on North Houston Ave. in Humble. Property is unfenced so kids can play on equipment.
HB5341: Lake Houston Dredging and Maintenance District

This bill also died in the House Natural Resources committee. House Bill 5341 would have created a Lake Houston Dredging and Maintenance District. Its purpose would be to remove sediment, debris, sand, and gravel  from Lake Houston and its tributaries to restore, maintain, and expand the Lake to mitigate storm flows. 

SB 1366: Flood Infrastructure Financing

This bill died in the Senate Finance committee. Senate Bill 1366 would have redirected surplus revenue from the economic stabilization fund to the Flood Infrastructure Fund. The State’s Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF) has turned into one of the main sources of funding for Texas Water Development Board grants and one of the main ways that smaller counties and cities can fund flood projects. 

Passed but Failed
HB 1540: SJRA Reforms

HB 1540 passed. The bill implements reforms recommended by the Sunset Review Committee for the the San Jacinto River Authority. Many of those are good and needed reforms. They include provisions governing:

  • Gubernatorial designation of the presiding officer of SJRA’s board of directors;
  • Specific grounds for removal of a board member;
  • Board member training;
  • Separation of the board’s policy-making responsibilities and the staff’s managementresponsibilities;
  • Maintenance of complaint information; and
  • Public testimony at board meetings.

Approval should have been a rubber stamp. But at the last minute, Rep. Will Metcalf from Conroe offered an amendment that effectively fired Jace Houston, SJRA’s general manager and leader of the SJRA’s fight to reduce subsidence. The amended bill passed the Senate. Houston resigned effective 6/30/23. And now the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District has no one to challenge unlimited groundwater pumping in Montgomery County.

Some in the Lake Houston Area who flooded during Harvey may rejoice at Houston’s departure. But differential subsidence is tilting Lake Houston upstream. It could make the Lake Houston Dam two feet higher relative to areas upstream near the county line. That could eliminate the safety margin above the floodplain for many homes in the next big flood.

subsidence in Harris County
Modeling shows 3 feet of subsidence near Harris/Montgomery county line, but only one foot at Lake Houston Dam.

As someone who had floodwater lapping at his foundation, I personally would put this one in the loss column.

The governor signed the bill on 6/18/23. It goes into effect on 9/1/2023.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/2/23

2133 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Woodridge Village Excavation Reached 92% of Atlas-14 Requirements in June

At the end of June, stormwater detention basin excavation on Harris County Flood Control District’s (HCFCD) Woodridge Village property reached 92% of Atlas-14 requirements. When HCFCD bought the property from Perry Homes in 2021, it had only 70% of the required detention capacity under Atlas 14.

Atlas-14 defines the current standard for safely containing a 100-year rainfall. The lack of detention basin capacity contributed to the flooding of hundreds of homes along Taylor Gully twice in 2019, after Perry contractors clearcut the property.

HCFCD and City of Houston purchased the property from Perry in March 2021. Excavation of additional detention capacity started in January 2022.

June/July Photos Show Progress

The first photo below was taken at the beginning of June 2023 so you can see how much progress has been made in the last month.

Looking ENE. Extent of Excavation on June 4, 2023

The second shows the site at the beginning of July 2023. The primary changes seem to be additional depth and length.

July 1, 2023 photo shows additional depth at far end of project.

HCFCD spokesperson Amy Crouser said that, “Essentially, the contractor is free to excavate where they want within the provided footprint.”

Rough layout for new Woodridge basin.
Green area indicates rough outline of new basin.

Where Does Woodridge Village Excavation Go From Here?

HCFCD’s Excavation and Removal contract with Sprint Sand & Clay calls for excavating up to 500,000 cubic yards. Sprint excavated approximately another 8,000 cubic yards in June. That equals approximately 5 acre feet.

If Sprint keeps excavating at that rate, the table below shows that it could reach Atlas 14 requirements by the end of this year.

However, Sprint’s contract calls for excavating UP TO 500,000 cubic yards. Any excavation beyond Atlas-14 needs would create a safety hedge against future needs should they increase. 

NOAA is already working on updating the Atlas 14 requirements and should release Atlas 15 before the end of this decade.

Here’s how all that looks in a table.

Acre Feet of Stormwater Detention% of Atlas-14 Requirement% of Ultimate
Site Had When Purchased from Perry Homes27170%47%
Has as of 7/1/2335392%61%
Atlas 14 Requires385100%66%
If Sprint Excavates All 500K Cubic Feet580150%100%
Calculations based on original construction plans, HCFCD monthly reports, Atlas-14 Requirements and Sprint contract.
Sprint could excavate down to or even slightly past the small grove of trees in the top center. Photo taken July 1, 2023.

Sprint will make only $1,000 from its Woodridge Village excavation contract with HCFCD, but will make its profit by selling the dirt at market rates. It’s a good deal for taxpayers, but carries some uncertainty with it.

If the demand for dirt dries up and excavation slows, HCFCD and Sprint could modify the E&R contract to complete a smaller detention basin sooner. But I assume it would still meet Atlas 14 requirements at a minimum.

But simply excavating the dirt isn’t the end of the job. Harris County still needs to slope the sides, plant grass, and tie the new basin into the site’s existing stormwater-detention-basin network. Engineers are reportedly working on plans for all that, according to HCFCD.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/1/2023

2132 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The Problem with Climate-Change Hysteria

Go to almost any news source you can name and you will likely find an article about climate change. They generally manage to turn a local event into an international crisis.

The articles report on the latest freeze, heat wave, drought or flood somewhere in the world and tie that into similar stories affecting other areas. The aggregated anecdotal evidence makes it seem as though the world is burning; drowning; freezing; frying; being blown apart by hurricanes and tornadoes; etc.

One such article caught my eye this morning on the Associated Press website by a writer who appears to be from Phoenix. The headline trumpeted, “Heat waves like the one that’s killed 14 in the southern US are becoming more frequent and enduring.” Four paragraphs in, I read, “…extreme heat will only increase in the U.S. each summer without more action to combat climate change…”

That made it sound as though “the end is near.” The temperature is shooting straight up and I better buy an electric vehicle before I turn into charcoal!

So I emailed Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, and asked whether the alleged “facts” about the current heat wave cited in the article were true for the Houston area. Short answer: “In general, no.” But he did dig deeper to reveal some interesting nuance in the numbers.

Observations from Harris County’s Meteorologist

Lindner began, “The current hot weather is nowhere near the levels of 1980 or 2011 with respect to the longevity of the heat or the intensity…at least in southeast Texas. Along the Rio Grande temperature records have been broken including some all-time records.”

Then he added, “As for the claim about heatwaves becoming worse…climate models do suggest that heatwaves and drought will become increasingly common with climate change especially in the southern plains and Texas. This is most noted in the rise of overnight low temperatures in the summer months which we are seeing along the Texas coast, but not so much an increase in afternoon high temperatures.”

“The increasing summer low temperatures can be tied to the warm Gulf of Mexico waters that keep lows from falling much below 80 at night locally. They also help keep dew points elevated (as we have seen with this recent heat) resulting in the very high heat-index values over the last few weeks.

Sea surface temperature anomalies on 6/29/23. Source NOAA.

“While air temperatures have generally been in the upper 90’s for highs, it has been the high dew points that have combined with the high temperatures to result in the dangerous heat index values.“

Local Vs. Global

I am not questioning the AP’s integrity, nor the author’s intellect or intentions. She’s simply using a well-worn, time-honored template in news coverage. Lead with specific examples – heat-related deaths – that dramatize a larger problem.

You see it every night on the news: Someone was shot; crime is out of control! Big Bend hikers died; we need to do more about climate change!

The specifics give stories emotional oomph that dry statistics can’t. But the specifics can also mislead.

Big Bend National Park, where the hikers died, is in the middle of a harsh, unforgiving, volcanic desert with little to no shade. Temperatures there reach 109 degrees and the average annual rainfall is only 13 inches. The last time I was at Big Bend, I saw dozens of signs warning people about sun, heat and running out of water. The county containing Big Bend is three times the size of Delaware, but has fewer than 10,000 people.

Should the story have been about the dangers of strenuous exercise in high temperatures? Or how the highs in Houston were higher 40 years ago?

Either approach would have been valid. Maybe even more valid than making the leap to climate change from one high pressure ridge. But…

I doubt the editors would have enthused over “Comparison of Recent Heat Waves Shows Houston Temps Falling.”

Bob Rehak

It doesn’t really fit the narrative.

I Wish…

When it comes to weather, the causes and trends aren’t always clear. For instance, is the current heat wave in Houston caused by emissions from internal combustion engines? Or is it caused by warm Gulf waters related to predictable El Niño-related changes in global wind patterns? If it’s the latter, is it fair to link it to the former?

Without taking a position on climate change one way or the other, I wish that climate reporting:

  • Put claims in historical context
  • Refrained from hysterical leaps into the distant future
  • Stopped making global generalizations from anecdotal evidence
  • Supported claims with more data
  • Scared people less and informed them more.

Ignoring the last point often backfires. Especially when you make global generalizations from local observations.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/30/2023

2131 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Poor-Farm-Ditch Renovation Funding Finally Secured

On 6/28/23, civic leaders from all levels of government gathered to celebrate the acquisition of enough funding to finally begin renovating Poor-Farm Ditch.

Poor-Farm Ditch runs from Greenway Plaza on the north to Brays Bayou on the south between West University Place and South Side Place. Harris County Flood Control District started studying ditch improvements more than 20 years ago. The 70-year-old, crumbling concrete ditch carries stormwater runoff from 1,330 highly developed acres.

Numerous Problems Associated with Poor-Farm Ditch

Poor-Farm Ditch has several problems:

  • Pieces of the crumbling concrete periodically collapse into the ditch and block it, exacerbating flooding.
  • Erosion threatens homes and businesses, which crowd the ditch on either side.
  • Adjacent properties have been built up as much as five feet. The existing channel walls were not designed to support that much weight.
  • Railroad ties and other earth-retaining features (used to stabilize the extra fill) have failed and fallen into the ditch, reducing its hydraulic capacity by 50% in places.
  • The channel’s width varies along its length, creating choke points in some places. Parts can handle a 100-year rain with room to spare while others can only handle a 10-year rain.
  • Encroachments have been constructed within the Harris County Flood Control District’s (HCFCD) right of way.

Press Conference Celebrates Funding Success At Long Last

U.S. Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher who secured $9.9 million for the $30+ million project kicked off today’s press conference by thanking all the officials and staff members present.

Left to right: West University Place Mayor Susan Sample, U.S. Representative Lizzie Fletcher, Harris County Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis (speaking), Southside Place Mayor Andy Chan, District 134 State Rep. Ann Johnson, HCFCD Exec. Director Dr. Tina Petersen 

Goals of Renovation

According to the funding request filed by Congresswoman Fletcher, the primary goal of the project is to avoid a failure of the existing channel by constructing an entirely new channel structure in its place.

Channel rehabilitation will reduce flood risk by improving hydraulic capacity. It will also improve HCFCD’s ability to provide maintenance.

The construction project will include maintenance access ramps for HCFCD, and reinforced pavement for inspection and “maintenance by foot” on top of the channel banks.

Geographic scope of project. Source: Harris County Flood Control District

In total, the project will benefit 523 structures and 1,036 people.

On-Again, Off-Again Project Finally Finds Funding

As you can see from the pictures below, buildings on the banks of the ditch leave little room for expansion. The project was actually put on hold for two years by Harris County Commissioners Court given lack of funding and lack of consensus support for the improvements among local leaders and residents.

At the time, HCFCD said it would continue to perform spot repairs and debris clearing as needed.

Then in 2021, the project regained momentum. An engineering study concluded it would be necessary to mitigate the impacts of the proposed Poor-Farm Ditch improvements on Brays Bayou by providing 43 acre feet of stormwater detention along Brays Bayou. 

The pictures below illustrate just some of these problems. HCFCD started studying the ditch in 2002. But it has taken until 2023 to raise enough money to address these issues.

Note how close homes and businesses are to the ditch. This turned out to be THE key design constraint. As both Southside and West U policemen told me today, “No one wanted to give up property to improve the ditch.
Foliage over the ditch frequently forms log dams that can make flooding worse if not cleared promptly.
Aging concrete requires frequent repair but access is poor.

Funding Will Come from Five Different Sources

Funding breaks down as follows:

  • $5.7 million from the Harris County Flood Control District
  • $150,000 from the City of Southside Place
  • $150,000 from the City of West University Place
  • $16.9 million from State of Texas
  • $9.9 million from Federal government

That puts the total secured funding at $32.8 million, enough to begin final design, bidding and construction.

Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher secured a huge win in Fiscal Year 2023 when she obtained a $9.9 million earmark.

But according to inside sources, Southside Mayor Chan, working with State Representative Ann Johnson and State Senator Joan Huffman secured the final funding needed for the project – another $16.9 million. Remarkably, the state earmark wasn’t even in the original budget bill this year, but was added during the conference committee phase!  

Construction will not likely start until at least next year at the earliest according to Mayor Chan.

During the press conference, participants used the phrase “dogged determination” numerous times. To pull off a project like this requires committed partners to coordinate efforts and pursue funding relentlessly from municipal, county, state and federal governments.

Civic leaders from other areas could learn from this team.

How Ditch Got Its Name

The ditch gets its name from a Poor Farm established by Harris County Commissioners in 1894 in what is now West University Place.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/28/23

2129 Days since Hurricane Harvey

New Data Suggests Houston’s Expected 100-Year Flood Is More Likely to Happen Every 8 to 23 Years

First Street Foundation, a non-profit risk-research group, estimates (based on what it says are “well known” Atlas-14 flaws) that a so-called 100-year flood event in Houston could likely happen every 8 to 23 years.

NOAA’s Atlas 14, a massive, years-long effort, which hasn’t even been fully implemented yet, may already be seriously out of date according to First Street.

As a result, First Street claims the design standards for infrastructure projects based on erroneous Atlas-14 data are likely to fail. Trillions of infrastructure investment dollars hang in the balance.

NOAA Replacing Atlas 14 with Atlas 15 Already

NOAA expects to release its latest Atlas-15 rainfall probability statistics for the U.S. sometime in 2027. Like Atlas 14 below, they will contain probabilities for every location in the country – for durations ranging from 5 minutes to 60 days and recurrence intervals from 1 year to 1000 years.

atlas 14 rainfall probabilities
Atlas 14 Probabilities for the North Houston area.

Moreover, for the first time ever, Atlas-15 probabilities will come in two flavors: with and without estimates for the impact of climate change.

First Street Foundation, a non-profit research and technology group, specializes in environmental risk assessment. They position their system, RiskFactor.com, as a stopgap until NOAA releases Atlas 15.

Time Lags Cause Confusion, Create Danger

FEMA still has not released flood maps based on the Atlas-14 probabilities above. The MAAPNext Group within Harris County Flood Control District has been working on those since Harvey. MAAPNext’s latest timeline (below) shows that FEMA may not make Atlas-14-based flood maps official for another 3+ years.

Engineers and government officials use this data when designing new subdivisions, industrial facilities, bridges, highways and other infrastructure.

For instance, they need to know, how high the bridge must be to let water flow under it during a flood to avoid catastrophes like the one below.

I-69 repairs
Old data led TxDoT to inadequately design the I-69 bridge over the San Jacinto West Fork. Repairs took more than a year after Harvey to complete while residents endured massive traffic jams.

Atlas 15 Underway Before Atlas 14 Implemented

A copyrighted article in the New York Times this morning by Raymond Zhong was titled “Intensifying Rains Pose Hidden Flood Risks Across the U.S.” In it, Mr. Zhong claims that new calculations show hazardous storms can dump significantly more water than previously believed.

“One in nine residents of the lower 48 states, largely in populous regions including the Mid-Atlantic and the Texas Gulf Coast, is at significant risk of downpours that deliver at least 50 percent more rain per hour than local pipes, channels and culverts might be designed to drain,” says Zhong.

Compounding the problem, “NOAA’s estimates are ‘the floor, not a ceiling,'” said Zhong, quoting Abdullah Hasan, a White House spokesman.

“That means millions of homeowners might be making decisions with an incomplete understanding of the true physical and financial risks they face,” said Zhong.

145,000 Houston Homes and Billions in Infrastructure Caught in Time Lag

Zhong quoted First Street Foundation, which said that in Houston alone, as many as 145,000 homes may be in the 100-year flood zone, but that they are not shown that way in current FEMA flood maps.

To put Atlas 15 and its climate change corrections into perspective…

First Street estimates that in Houston, what we currently think of as a 100-year flood may actually be an 8- to 23-year flood.

First Street Foundation Press Release

All this comes as the nation gears up to spend more than $1.2 trillion dollars on infrastructure which Congress and President Biden approved in 2021.

And that $1.2 trillion doesn’t even include the money homebuyers spend each year. About 30% of all household income in the U.S. goes toward housing. And the average American moves once every seven years.

That means virtually everyone is likely not making home-buying decisions based on the most current (accurate) flood probabilities. By the time FEMA releases Harvey-based Atlas-14 flood maps, Atlas-15 revisions will already be available to a select few.

While the Association of State Flood Plain Managers finds First Street data useful, it emailed a report at the close of business today about First Street. The report says that “ASFPM has and will continue to support NOAA’s work on Atlas 14 and 15, which will remain the gold standard within our profession.”

Problems Caused By Lack of Timely Updates

The vast majority of developers, homebuilders and engineers are ethical. But some less scrupulous developers can exploit confusion caused by irregular update policies.

Likewise, engineers who designed a bridge to one set of specs, may find their work out-dated before construction starts. What are the ethical obligations in a case like that?

Just this year, we’ve seen numerous instances of developers trying to get their plans grandfathered under pre-Atlas-14 regulations even as the U.S. moves toward Atlas 15. Little wonder that when a flood happens, few can explain where the system went wrong.

“The fact that the Nation will not have the most accurate estimates of extreme precipitation likelihoods available at the time of the design of these projects means that many of them will be out of date on the day they are opened to the public,” said Matthew Eby, Founder and Executive Director of First Street Foundation.

Governments at all levels need to work better together to shorten the data supply chain. Doing so could save Americans trillions of dollars.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/26/2023

2127 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Some Projects in Flood Bond Likely Won’t Get Done While Others Not in Bond Will

While speaking to a public meeting of the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force, Scott Elmer, the Flood Control District’s new Chief Partnership and Programs Officer, predicted that some projects in the 2018 flood bond likely will not get done because of a funding gap.

Elmer made this remark while discussing a list of projects proposed by Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) for funding from grants totaling $825 million from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the Texas General Land Office (GLO).

The $825 million is the last large pot of money still sitting on the sidelines from Harvey. But it likely won’t stretch far enough to complete all the projects in the bond.

Despite a partner funding gap of approximately $800 million (published in 2021), the $825 million would only reduce the gap by approximately an estimated $420 million. How could that possibly be? For one thing…

Not all projects proposed to GLO were in the flood bond.

Origins of Funding Gap

To understand the funding gap, one needs to start with the structure of the 2018 flood bond. It contained a list of projects totaling almost $5 billion, but voters approved borrowing only half of that. The other half was supposed to come from partners, such as FEMA, HUD, local governments and the Texas Water Development Board.

Then COVID and inflation struck. Supply chain issues and labor shortages drove up the cost of projects approximately 20-30%, according to Elmer.

Meanwhile, not all of the hoped-for partner funding materialized. For instance, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) was hoping for a billion dollars from HUD, added Elmer, but received only $825 million. (The County siphoned off almost a quarter billion dollars for Harris County Engineering and Community Services Departments.)

Some Projects Expand While Others May Be Excluded

Complicating the squeeze between the upward pressure of price inflation and less-than-hoped-for funding, HCFCD added (in some cases) to the scope of projects listed in the bond.

  • For instance, HCFCD originally budgeted the Greens Bayou Mid-Reach Project for $20 million in the bond. But HCFCD lists it at $90 million in the proposed GLO list – a 4.5X increase. The first figure reportedly includes the original phases of the project. The second includes those PLUS others which had been deferred for a subsequent bond.
  • Another example: The Arbor Oaks Stormwater Detention Basin in the White Oak Bayou watershed started out as a $13.3 million project in the bond, but now weighs in at $42.3 million. Its price more than tripled.

A person familiar with the Arbor Oaks project said it could easily be phased, but that it appears some phases (which had initially been deferred) were now recommended for immediate construction.

Lower part of Arbor Oaks area on bottom left. Bridge is on West Little York. Looking SE toward downtown.
Lower part of Arbor Oaks area on bottom left. Bridge is on West Little York. Looking SE toward downtown.

Those two projects alone account for an additional $100 million in scope.

“Use It or Lose It” Deadlines Place Emphasis on Shovel-Ready Projects

The projects recommended on the GLO list largely came from projects which had already been extensively studied and which are near shovel ready. That’s primarily because of two factors:

  • The county took 2-years between GLO’s announcement of a $750 million allocation for Harris County and the County’s submission of a plan for spending the money.
  • Meanwhile, the original HUD deadlines placed on using the money have not slipped. So, HCFCD now has its back up against a “use it or lose it deadline” wall.

If money isn’t spent before HUD deadlines, HUD will take the money back – not just unspent funds, but all funds allocated to incomplete projects. So, say for instance, HCFCD spent $50 million on a project, but had $10 million to go when the deadline arrived. HCFCD would have to give back the $50 million it already spent.

Obviously, the specter of having already-spent funds clawed back by the federal government made “construction readiness” a huge factor in project selection that wasn’t there almost six years ago when Harvey struck.

This means projects given priority by the Equity Prioritization Framework were closer to shovel ready. Presumably, they also helped meet Low-to-Moderate Income (LMI) requirements placed on the HUD funds.

No other large pots of aid dedicated to Harvey remain out there. So, annual programs, such as FEMA’s Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) and Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) represent HCFCD’s best hope to make up the rest of the funding gap.

But the competition for those grants is nationwide. They include all states, territories, the District of Columbia and tribal lands. And Texas applications are handicapped because Texas has not updated its building codes in almost a decade to qualify for BRIC funding – despite an 11-to-1 payback.

Updating Project Cost Estimates to Recalculate Funding Gap

Elmer says he cannot calculate an exact funding gap at this time. “We’re still working on updating all project costs with the inflation estimates,” he said.

Elmer hopes to have a firmer estimate by August when the Flood Control District expects to issue its second flood-bond update this year.

I personally hope that the District’s recent reorganization can help it track such financing issues better in the future. It appears that after years of promising residents that all projects in the bond would be completed, now some may not be…while others that were not in the bond will be.

And I suspect I know whose won’t be.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/24/23

2125 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Ready for Emergencies?

Harris County’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management has produced an excellent presentation designed to help you get ready for emergencies of almost any type. While it primarily focuses on hurricanes, it also covers other natural and man-made disasters such as tornadoes, train derailments, plant explosions, and more.

Complexity Complicates Times of Chaos

Some reminders: Harris County has…

  • More people than half the states in the country
  • The largest port (by export tonnage)
  • The largest petrochemical complex in the world
  • 56 fire departments
  • 125 law enforcement agencies
  • 34 cities
  • 23 major watersheds
  • 1200+ utility districts
  • 9,000 miles of pipeline

Staying safe amidst that kind of complexity requires preparedness and situational awareness.

Fundamentals of Safety

The presentation focuses on four fundamentals of preparedness:

  • Getting a kit
  • Making a plan
  • Staying informed
  • Being involved.

It also contains numerous links you can use to sign up for alerts from various sources.

Homeland Security urges you to share the presentation and links below with family, friends, neighbors and community groups.

Better yet, ask them to put on a personalized presentation for your group. Remember. Some people may not have the ability to see, hear, or evacuate as well as you.

Helpful Links

Website: www.readyharris.org

Offices of Emergency Management: Ready Harris > Contact

Sign up for ReadyHarris Alerts: member portal (everbridge.net)

Sign up for ReadyHarris Accessible Alerts: Sign Up | Harris County (ahasalerts.com)

Hurricane Brochures: 

Accessible Videos: ASL Videos 

Disaster Checklist 

Harris County Resources: 

Other resources: 

STEAR Evacuation Assistance

Not Enough First Responders to Help Everyone

Less than 1% of the people in Harris County are first responders. So we must help each other to the extent we can.

It normally takes until June 20th before we have our first named storm in the Atlantic Basin. However, we’ve already had three so far this year. And this was supposed to be an average year.

So please bookmark this page and share it.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/23/23

2024 Days since Hurricane Harvey

GLO Announces Regional Mitigation-Project Approvals Totaling $128 Million

Two pieces of good news came out of the Texas General Land Office (GLO) in two days! Yesterday, the GLO announced that both Houston and Harris County met their respective expenditure goals for Harvey disaster-relief funds. Today, Commissioner Dawn Buckingham M.D. announced the approval of more than another $128 million worth of flood-mitigation projects in the region.

This batch of funds includes several major projects in the north Houston region:

  • City of Dayton received $1.45 million for sewer rehabilitation.
  • Liberty County received $21.27 million to develop a master-drainage plan and make drainage improvements.
  • Waller County received $6.7 million for drainage improvements and another $2 million for Prairie View Water Improvements and a Planning study.

Of these, the Liberty County batch stands out for its sheer size. And Liberty County will need it. That’s because of the recently completed Grand Parkway. It cuts a wide arc through the county’s farms and fields. Thousands of acres are currently under development thanks to improved transportation. And they will stress local watersheds, such as the San Jacinto East Fork and Luce Bayou.

Intersection of State Highway 99 (Grand Parkway) and FM1960 shortly before grand opening last year.
Just north of the Grand Parkway, Colony Ridge is doubling in size.

Another Liberty County example.

FM2090 at East Fork of the San Jacinto in Liberty County on May 3, 2021. New development has flooded Plum Grove and areas farther south along the East Fork.

And another.

FM 1010
Also in Plum Grove, FM1010 washed out at Rocky Branch during Harvey and has yet to be repaired.

Scope of HUD/GLO Awards

The GLO awarded the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development funds to improve street, water and drainage facilities in Brazoria, Fort Bend, Galveston, Jefferson, Liberty, Matagorda, Nueces, Polk, San Jacinto, and Waller Counties.

This is a separate tranche of money from the Houston and Harris County disaster-relief funds discussed in yesterday’s post.

$128,208,664 will benefit 19 federally eligible infrastructure projects to improve streets as well as water and drainage facilities. The cities of Aransas Pass, Coldspring, Corrigan, Dayton, Freeport, Hitchcock, Iowa Colony, Katy, La Marque, Palacios, Pearland, Richwood, Rosenberg, Shepherd, Texas City, and the counties of Jefferson, Liberty, and Waller will all receive the mitigation dollars.

Difference Between Disaster Relief and Flood Mitigation

Disaster relief dollars help individuals recover from past floods. Mitigation dollars, on the other hand, help strengthen infrastructure against future floods.

According to the GLO, HUD defines mitigation as “Activities that increase resilience to disasters and reduce or eliminate the long-term risk of loss of life, injury, damage to and loss of property, and suffering and hardship, by lessening the impact of future disasters.”

Locally-Led Methods of Distribution

The approvals announced today will filter down to cities and counties through regional councils of governments (COGs), such as the Houston-Galveston Area Council (HGAC).

Through its Regional Mitigation Program, the GLO enabled local prioritization. This local prioritization will have a tremendous impact across multiple regions, according to Commissioner Buckingham.

“Locally-led prioritization of mitigation projects is important because it strengthens critical infrastructure and protects communities against the impacts of natural disasters,” said Buckingham. “At the Texas General Land Office, we are not only helping those in need, but also supporting our communities as they grow.”

Who Will Get What

The table below shows a high-level description and the award amount for each of the 19 projects. For detailed descriptions of each project, click the caption below the table.

For project descriptions, click here.

How the Money Got from D.C. to Texas Projects on the Ground

The Texas General Land Office (GLO) allocated $1,166,997,000 in Community Development Block Grant Mitigation (CDBG-MIT) funds from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) for the Regional Mitigation Program. The program aims to reduce the risks and impacts of future natural disasters.

Each Council of Government (COG) with HUD-designated eligible counties developed a method of distribution (MOD) for allocation of funds to units of local governments. Each COG developed its MOD through extensive public participation.

HUD requires that at least 50% of total funds must be used for activities benefiting low- to moderate-income (LMI) persons.

For more information, please visit recovery.texas.gov/mitigation.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/20/23

2121 Days since Hurricane Harvey

A First: Houston, Harris County Both Meet HUD/GLO Disaster-Relief Benchmarks in Same Time Period

The Texas General Land Office (GLO) announced today that for the first time ever since Hurricane Harvey, both Houston and Harris County have each met their benchmarks for expending disaster relief funds – in the SAME time period. They may have individually met performance benchmarks before, but never together in the same review period.

Both Harris County and Houston have semiannual expenditure benchmarks in their Community Development Block Grant Disaster Relief funding contracts with the GLO, per HUD guidance. “These milestones were set by the City and County and approved by the GLO to ensure all programs will be completed as timely as possible,” said a GLO spokesperson.

A New Era of Cooperation Yielding Results Already

Dawn Buckingham, M.D., the new GLO Commissioner credits open communications and focused cooperation. “The GLO is dedicated to helping Harris County and the City of Houston put these vital funds to good use.”

GLO Commissioner Dawn Buckingham, M.D., speaking at a joint press conference in March. Others L to R: Harris County Community Services Interim Exec Director Thao Costis, HCFCD Exec Director Dr. Tina Petersen, P4 Commissioner Lesley Briones, P2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia, P3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey PE, P1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis, County Attorney Christian Menefee.

This is good news. In years past, the relationship between Houston, Harris County, GLO and HUD foundered over performance benchmarks, cooperation and communication. But now, new players are in place. And 5+ years after Harvey, the City, County and State all face “use it or lose it” deadlines from HUD.

More Money Hangs in Balance

While the performance benchmarks in question have to do only with unexpended, Harvey-related, disaster-relief funds, much more money hangs in the balance.

The success of the relationship will also affect $750 million in CDBG-mitigation funds and another $322 million in unspent funds that the GLO shifted from expiring projects to Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD).

Earlier this month, HCFCD presented Commissioners Court with a proposed project list for those funds. HCFCD is reportedly still trying to define the areas benefited by each of those projects before final approval. However, HUD and the GLO seem pleased with both the progress and the collaborative working relationships that have developed.

Everyone seems to respond positively to Dr. Buckingham’s working style – described as “supportive,” yet “results oriented.”

  • Commissioner Adrian Garcia stated publicly, “I want to give a shout out to the GLO and Commissioner Buckingham for her support of Harris County and giving us a degree of trust.”
  • Commissioner Tom Ramsey complimented the fairness of project list, noting that it worked out to about 25% for each precinct. He stated, “job well done by the whole.” 
  • Commissioner Lesley Briones said, “This is so wonderful that we were able to hit reset and really focus on the progress going forward.” 

Nature Provides Its Own Deadlines

It can’t happen soon enough for Harris County residents who live under constant threat of floods. Monday afternoon, Tropical Storm Brett formed in the Atlantic. Another storm with an 80% chance of formation in the next 7 days follows closely behind. That’s up from 50% yesterday afternoon.

National Hurricane Center update as of 10:45AM EDT Tuesday, June 20, 2023

It’s too early to tell with any reliability where/whether/when either of these disturbances will make landfall.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/19/2023

2120 Days since Hurricane Harvey and Updated on 6/20/2023 with new storm information and photo.

Would Livable Places Initiative Really Make Housing More Affordable?

Third in a Series on the City of Houston Planning Commission’s Livable Places Initiative

In the first two posts in this series, I discussed how the Houston Planning Commission’s Livable Places Initiative had the potential to:

Despite well intentioned efforts to help limit the growth of impervious cover, the Commission has not conducted a flood study showing the cumulative impact of its recommendations.

Nor does it have any concrete recommendations guaranteed to make housing more affordable – its primary goal.

Effects on Affordability Uncertain

Most of the ordinance changes would let people build more housing in any given area. Changes would allow:

  • More compact development and small-scale, multi-unit housing
  • On less land
  • With fewer parking spots
  • And with narrower driveways. 
Housing variations encouraged by Livable Places increase housing density and impervious cover.

Those recommendations have the potential to reduce redevelopment costs and therefore exert downward pressure on housing prices. Land represents a significant percentage of those housing prices. Also, it takes less labor and fewer materials to build a 1,000 square-foot home than it does a 2,000 square-foot home. But…

How much of those savings will buyers receive and how much will developers pocket? 

Higher density also lets more people share the cost of infrastructure, such as streets and storm sewers. That theoretically exerts downward pressure on prices, too.

But higher runoff associated with more impervious cover could exceed the capacity of those storm drains and ditches. And that could lead to increases in drainage fees.

During the public comment period after the last Planning Commission meeting, one individual referenced outrageous prices for densely packed, small homes in the Heights (see below). He made the point that nothing in the regulations guarantees more affordable housing.

Many of the targeted inner-city neighborhoods already complain about flooding and blame it on historical discrimination. Any increase in impervious cover could make such neighborhoods less livable, not more.

Neither do new regulations do anything to discourage people from subdividing flood-prone lots near channels or streams. That could make future buyouts even more expensive. We’ve already spent billions of dollars mitigating flooding in these areas.

Houston Already Has More Affordable Homes and People Still Move Out

The Planning Commission is filled with bright, intelligent, hard-working people. But they have limited tools at their disposal. While they may be able to make housing more affordable, they have no tools to fight crime, flooding, or failing schools.

Houston already has some of the most affordable housing in the region. Yet people still move out of the City to buy higher priced homes. 

While population in the region is increasing, population in the City of Houston has decreased since the 2020 census. 

Inverted Housing Prices, Demand

Usually, higher prices limit demand and lower prices increase it. But that isn’t happening in the Houston region.

According to the Census Bureau, the average house price in:

  • Houston = $200,000
  • Conroe = $223,300
  • Katy = $290,200
  • Sugar Land = $334,000. 

Houston already has the lowest housing prices!

If people were looking purely for more affordable housing, you would expect Houston’s population to increase, not decrease. 

But what do the high-growth areas have in common? They tend to be suburban with single-family homes that offer yards; a safe environment to raise kids; good schools; easy access to shopping and ample parking.

Perhaps the Planning Department needs to take a broader look at what attracts people and build that into its Livable Places Initiative.

Aerial Photo taken in 2022 north of Houston’s downtown.

In the picture above, note how some blocks have more green space than rooftops, others are entirely covered by rooftops.

Redevelopment under the new rules will bring more of the latter, not the former.

Saving the Green

Denser housing also means fewer trees. According to the EPA, “Trees are increasingly recognized for their importance in managing runoff.”

  • Leaf canopies help reduce erosion caused by falling rain.
  • Rain water can land and evaporate from more surface area.
  • Roots take up water and help create conditions in the soil that promote infiltration.
  • Trees stabilize soil and help regulate streamflow by reducing the velocity of water entering streams.

Yes, trees play a vital role in reducing flooding.

Planning Department staff are fond of saying that higher density housing in Houston will help prevent the clearcutting of forests in outlying areas and, thus, reduce flooding. “Build more homes where the infrastructure already exists,” they argue. 

There is, no doubt, some truth to that – especially on a macro level. Conservation and preservation make valuable flood-fighting tools. But…

Saving trees in one watershed won’t reduce flooding in another.

We need to practice conservation and preservation everywhere – to the extent possible – especially where people are flooding – in Houston.

YIMBY vs. NIMBY

Still, people need homes. And the cost of housing has clearly priced some people out of the housing market. According to the Census Bureau, a generational divide underlies the pricing divide. The housing shortage is dire in many metropolitan areas.

Older baby-boomers may abhor the type of development seen above. They’re literally saying NIMBY (Not in My Backyard!) to garage apartments, infill development and other types of housing encouraged by Livable Places.

But a younger group of millennials who find themselves priced out of the housing market are saying YIMBY (Yes in My Backyard).

Across the nation, renters, are especially cost burdened. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), says anyone who spends more than 30 percent of their income on housing is cost-burdened. Nationally, an estimated 40 percent of rental households and 21.3 percent of households with a mortgage met this threshold in 2018 – when Houston was revising building codes to help prevent another Hurricane-Harvey-type scourge.

One Crisis Vs. Another Crisis

Houston has averaged 3-5 flooding crises, on average, every decade for more than a hundred years. We saw eight in the last decade alone.

For a high resolution PDF, click here. Source: Harris County Flood Control District.

Now we seem to be solving a housing crisis with little regard for the predictable flooding crises we know will strike us. How soon we forget!

City Council Will Vote on Wednesday

City Council will vote on the “Livable Places” recommendations on Wednesday, 6/21/23. The Planning Commission website explains how you can sign up to speak.

ReduceFlooding.com recommends that City Council does NOT approve “Livable Places” recommendations until any potential impact on flooding is known and residents can decide whether the potential increased risk is worth any benefits developers may gain.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/18/23

2119 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.