Severe Weather Threat Tuesday with High Winds, Rain Up to 3″ and Possible Tornados
The National Weather Service and Harris County warn of a severe weather threat for Tuesday.
Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner warns that severe thunderstorms, some of which could turn into tornados are likely with heavy rainfall, and gusty winds across SE Texas Tuesday.
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center also warns of the potential for supercell development and hail.
Up to 3 inches of rain are likely with isolated higher amounts (up to 6″ according to Lindner) where thunderstorm training exists.
Overview
A deepening upper level trough over the SW US will move eastward and into SW/W TX tonight/Tuesday and then exit the state early Wednesday morning to the east. This system will bring dynamic weather to much of Texas starting late Monday tonight.
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center warns that “supercells will be likely along the developing line of storms.”
The dry air now over SE TX will undergo significant changes in the next 24 hours. A low level jet will quickly transport extreme moisture northward from the SW/W Gulf of Mexico. Moisture levels in the atmosphere will quintuple overnight, driven by the 50-60 mph winds just above the surface. NWS indicates strong winds are the primary threat.
A wind advisory will likely be required for much of the area with isolated to scattered power outages possible.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Lift should rapidly increase Tuesday morning with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing from SW to NE across the region.
Look for scattered showers to begin developing around sunrise, then increase in coverage through the day. The highest potential for thunderstorms in the Houston metro area should be mid-afternoon. But they should move out of the state by early evening.
Heavy Rainfall Expected
Models hint at some sort of low-level convergence boundary becoming established along the US 59 corridor around mid-morning Tuesday. That should trigger heavy rainfall well ahead of the approaching front and boost rainfall in the Fort Bend, Harris, and Liberty County areas. Lindner worries that this could lead to a period of training storms and quick rainfall accumulations.
He predicts widespread rainfall of 1-3 inches with isolated totals of 4-6 inches possible.
Street flooding will be a concern in areas that catch heavier rainfall. Hourly rates may approach 1-3 inches.
Given the time of year, wet grounds, and dead vegetation from recent freezes, maximum run-off is likely. Lindner expects rises on area streams, but also says that the current forecasted rainfall amounts should not lead to creek, bayou, or river flooding.
Severe
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center suggests that an impressive 80-100kt mid-level jet carving across SE TX Tuesday afternoon could bring enough instability south of I-10 for severe thunderstorms to develop. SPC has upgraded the risk in that area into a (2 out of 5) slight risk.
Wind gusts of 60-70mph will be possible. Near the coast, a tornado or two will be possible. The highest threat of severe weather is currently offshore, but the severe threat could be upgraded south of I-10.
Winds
Starting late tonight, the strong low level jet overhead will bring sustained winds of 25-35mph and gusts of 40-45mph at the surface much of Tuesday. Gusts may be higher near the coast and inland bays. A wind advisory will likely be required for much of the area and these winds may down trees and tree limbs, result in isolated to scattered power outages, and move unsecured outdoor objects.
Marine
Dangerous marine conditions will quickly develop late tonight into Tuesday as southerly winds rapidly increase into the 35-45kt range for all waters.
A gale watch is in effect for all waters and will be upgraded to a warning this afternoon. Seas will quickly build 6-8 ft in bays and 10-12ft offshore on Tuesday.
The strong winds may result in elevated tides in the northern portion of Galveston Bay Tuesday along with wave run-up on the Gulf facing beaches.
The line of strong to severe thunderstorms arriving Tuesday afternoon/evening will bring W/NW winds at 30-40 kts. Wind gusts of 50-55kts will be possible. Small craft should be in port by this evening and remain in port until winds and seas subside on Wednesday.
One Year Anniversary of Kingwood Tornado
Although January tornados are rare, we should not forget what happened last January when several twisters slashed through Kingwood downing trees and power lines. Exercise caution.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/23/2023 at 2PM based on information from the NWS and Jeff Lindner
1973 Days since Hurricane Harvey
