9/25/23 – Approximately 425,000 people live in the 204 square mile Cypress Creek watershed which has severe repetitive flooding. At a press conference this morning, County, State and Federal officials announced $50 million in funding for a massive complex of stormwater detention basins on Cypress Creek at T.C. Jester Blvd. to help protect those people.
The basins will span approximately 150 acres on both sides of T.C. Jester and include 1200-acre feet of planned stormwater detention capacity, wet bottoms, and recreational trails.
Approximate boundaries of three detention basins – one will go west of TC Jester and two more east.White area is existing basin.
Altogether, the stormwater detention capacity in this area will increase approximately 75X.
Google Earth calculation of existing and planned ponds
The existing pond covers approximately 2 acres and the new areas will cover more than 150.
Looking E over T.C. Jester. Existing 2-acre basin in foreground was site of press conference. Wooded area beyond will become two new detention basins.
Thanks to County, State and Federal Governments
The $50 million will come from three primary sources:
State Representative Sam Harless secured $12 million in State of Texas funding.
Harris County Flood Control District Executive Director Tina Petersen also reminded everyone of the money designated for Cypress Creek in the Flood Bond, which was considerable.
The GLO/HUD money has been requested but not yet confirmed although all indications are positive at this time. GLO Commissioner Dawn Buckingham has committed to making sure that people in all parts of Harris County benefit from the $750 million.
Timetable and Project Scope
HCFCD Director Dr. Petersen addressed the next steps in the projects. “A portion of the projects on the east side of T.C. Jester will start construction in the next 6 to 9 months. The remainder should go into construction no later than the end of 2024. So we’re going to see these projects move quickly. This type of progress would not have been possible without the critical funding that our Congressman and Representative secured “
The overall project includes three stormwater detention basins within a broader footprint. Two basin compartments are on the east side of T.C. Jester Boulevard and another is on the west side.
Excavation of the west side basin (see below) has already begun under an E&R (Excavation and Removal) Contract. A private contractor is removing the dirt, almost free of charge, then selling it at market rates to recoup costs and make a profit. An estimated 120,000 cubic yards of material has already been excavated to date.
Work to date on basin west of T.C. Jester. Looking N toward Cypresswood Drive.
The contractor began removing dirt in the general area to get a head start on construction, even before final design of the basin. The final design will begin soon.
Each basin will have a wet-bottom with maintenance berms, side slopes and high banks along the outside.
Construction for all basins should begin no later than Q4 2024. They have estimated 8-month construction timelines.
Extent of Benefits
The three stormwater detention basins will work together – taking stormwater from the main stem of Cypress Creek and holding it until water levels recede on the main stem.
The projects will also have recreational benefits such as hike and bike trails.
Director Petersen stated that the projects will primarily benefit the local area, i.e., benefits will not extend very far downstream. The 1200 acre feet will likely take several thousand homes out of the floodplain.
Even though those homes will be in the Cypress Creek area, 1200 acre feet being held back upstream is 1200 acre feet that won’t be in the living rooms of Lake Houston Area residents during the next big flood.
More to Come
Ramsey also pointed to more projects to come, though he didn’t elaborate. He said, “This is $50 million of the $100 million that will be spent over the coming months in the Cypress watershed. So hold on. We’re getting started. This isn’t the end. This is the beginning.”
Speakers at T.C. Jester Detention Basin Press Conference included U.S. Representative Dan Crenshaw, State Representative Sam Harless, Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey P.E., and HCFCD Executive Director Dr. Tina Petersen.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/25/2023
2218 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20230925-RJR_2415.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-09-25 17:58:212023-09-25 22:11:13Funding Announced for Massive Detention-Basin Complex on Cypress Creek
The book is primarily targeted to flood-project managers and city officials. However, the informative illustrations and easy-to-understand writing make it a useful primer for anyone who wants to become more knowledgeable about flooding.
The World Bank bills the handbook as a “roadmap for conducting an urban flood risk assessment in any city in the world.”
What will the average person get from it? The ability to understand flood professionals, the issues they face, and how they evaluate problems/solutions.
It also made me realize that Harris County’s equity framework, which the county uses to allocate flood-mitigation funds, fails to incorporate many factors recommended by the Department of Homeland Security and others.
Outline of Handbook
The book contains five chapters.
Chapters cover the following sub-topics.
Intro and Chapter 1: Defining Risk
Much of the book has a checklist quality to it. For instance, what should professionals quantify when defining flood risk?
Hazards and their probabilities
Exposure – an inventory of elements and activities affected by hazards, for instance:
The population and its assets such as homes and belongings, private businesses, and industrial assets
Infrastructure such as roads, drinking water, sanitation, drainage, and flood protection infrastructure
Public infrastructure like health care and school facilities
Environmental and cultural assets
Economic activities.
Vulnerability – the degree to which people, property and infrastructure can be adversely affected
Here, for instance, I was surprised to learn that Harris County’s equity framework considered some, but not all of the factors that make areas vulnerable. For instance, it doesn’t really incorporate infrastructure!
Chapter Two: Hazard Assessment
The chapter on Hazard Assessment begins with a list of “boundary conditions” typically used within a flood model.
Five conditions typically include: (1) rainfall, (2) infiltration, (3) flow, (4) water levels and waves, and (5) pumps and flow control structures.
But just measuring rainfall can be difficult depending on the number and types of gages in use. “Most meteorological services only provide daily values (mostly from manual gauges), which provide part of the overall rainfall characteristics. However, the distribution and intensity within a single day are essential,” say the authors.
Automated gages that can measure short (sub-daily) periods are critical in informing regulations that affect the design of infrastructure. Short, high-intensity bursts are a significant factor in urban flooding. However, many areas have gages measured manually once per day. (The Flood Control District’s are all automated.)
As I scanned the text of this chapter, flashbacks from Harvey kept recurring. When I read this sentence, I thought of the Lake Conroe discharge designed to prevent the flooding of Lake Conroe homes. “Discharge rates from control gates normally relate to both upstream and downstream water levels…” [Emphasis added.] Did the dam operators consider downstream water levels at the time? The case is still pending in the courts.
In chapter 2, I also found the most illuminating discussion of differences between 1D, 2D and 3D modeling that I have ever read.
Ditto for a description of Manning’s Coefficient, which is used to estimate the impact of friction on the speed of water, which in turn affects the rate of accumulation and flood height.
Illustration of Mannings Roughness Coefficient and friction’s impact on speed of floodwater.
Trees and buildings create friction for floodwater that slows it down. But concrete and clear-cutting speed it up.
Such information is used to quantify the potential consequences of flooding to homes, businesses, and people across an area.
Chapter 3: Risk Assessment
Chapter 3 focuses on Risk Assessment and lists types of infrastructure that the Department of Homeland Security defines as “critical sectors.”
Again, Harris County’s Equity Framework (used to distribute flood-mitigation funds) considers none of these.
Chapter 4: Interventions
Chapter 4 discusses types of interventions (solutions to flooding). They fall into three main categories.
The chapter then addresses the limitations, applicability, costs, benefits, and environmental/social impacts of each.
It’s too complicated to summarize here. But it’s fascinating to see how flood professionals evaluate the range of options.
Conclusion
The last chapter addresses the business side of flood mitigation, i.e., bidding jobs. I’ll skip that here and close by saying this. Even after studying flooding for six years, I felt lights turning on almost every time I turned a page in this book.
I had a high level understanding of most of the concepts. But this gave me a much fuller understanding. I found myself constantly thinking, “Aha, so that’s how that fits in.”
Social media has been abuzz this week about the Northpark Drive entry to Kingwood. As contractors removed trees from the north side of the road to make room for a detention pond, many people complained.
But it’s important to remember why we’re improving Northpark: to accommodate increased traffic and to create a reliable, all-weather evacuation route. In that regard, the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority (LHRA) must balance three conflicting needs: flood mitigation, saving trees and cost. Let’s look at how each relates to the objectives.
Reliable, All-Weather Evacuation Route
During Harvey, Hamblen Road, Kingwood Drive and Northpark were all blocked by rising floodwaters. That forced many people to try to snake out of Kingwood through Porter…if they could get there. Many couldn’t.
For decades, we’ve also worried about the possibility of a train disaster that could block off Kingwood’s exits. The longer trains that Union Pacific runs now can block multiple exits simultaneously. The longest trains stretch for more than three miles. And if there were a derailment or toxic spill, it would be difficult getting people to safety.
Raising the elevation of Northpark between Bens Branch and the Kingwood Diversion Ditch eliminates the first problem. And building the bridge over the tracks at 494 eliminates the second.
Finally, widening the road will enable more vehicles to evacuate faster.
Flood-Mitigation Enhancements
All that extra concrete to expand the road, however, reduces rainwater infiltration and increases runoff. To keep the road from flooding, engineers calculated they needed 22 acre feet of stormwater detention capacity near US59.
The solution: build two permanent ponds, one each on the north and south sides of 59 where the groves of trees were. TxDoT already owned the land. So it was available at no cost.
Looking N toward Kroger Center. Clearing for N pond completed. Clearing for S pond (bottom right) begins next week.
Water will permanently fill the ponds, just like those at Kingwood Drive. The difference between the normal water surface elevation and the lip of the ponds will equal 22 acre feet. The size of the ponds will keep that gap at an aesthetically pleasing level.
Looking S. Note the protective fencing around the remaining trees. Additional trees may be stored temporarily in the foreground.
Said another way, the ponds will look like decorative enhancements but serve a vital purpose that few realize.
The outline you see in the photo below will match the perimeter of the pond.
No more trees will be cut for this pond. The area cleared represents the final outline of the pond.
The layout below shows how the ponds should look when completed.
According to Ralph De Leon, project manager, “Enough trees will remain to form a pleasing backdrop for the pond, screen the visually noisy area behind them, and create a good first impression for visitors.”
From 30 feet, you can barely see the shopping center behind the trees. From ground level, it will be completely screened.
It’s important to remember that when KSA revised the Kingwood entries after TxDoT widened 59, many people wanted ponds at Northpark. They complained that KSA was neglecting Northpark compared to Kingwood Drive.
Many trees are being transplanted. But that’s an expensive proposition; the trees have grown since LHRA first prepared estimates two years ago.
“We’ve already identified the trees that will be saved,” De Leon continued. “Some will move to their permanent location immediately. Others will be stored temporarily at staging locations until the road construction gets further along. Then they’ll be moved to their permanent positions.”
The landscape architects, contractor, and LHRA are evaluating each tree individually. Their objective is to save as many as possible. But dollars pose a constraint.
Cost Limitations
De Leon also says “The cost to move each tree is roughly $11,000. We can’t afford to move the truly huge trees. They cost up to $100,000 per tree. And we just don’t have a budget for those.”
Machines like these will move trees that range from 4″ to 17″ in diameter.Photo courtesy of Davey Tree Company.
To maximize aesthetics, the Redevelopment Authority will relocate a mix of trees, such as oaks and pines.
The trees that will move have already been inventoried and tagged.
Update on Water-Line and Utility Conflicts
In my last Northpark post, I pointed out two conflicts holding up construction of the median farther east – one with a water line to a new church near Russell-Palmer Road and a second with CenterPoint.
The City of Houston has agreed to let the Redevelopment Authority’s contractor design a workaround for the water line that interfered with the placement of box culverts. Contractors left a gap big enough for two sections of culvert and a coffer dam to keep dirt from collapsing into the hole.
Because the culvert is tongue-in-groove, contractors also left enough room for a collar. That will allow the two new sections to slide into place. It will also prevent leaks in any gap that remains.
Regarding the CenterPoint gas line running down the center of the ditch at different depths, CenterPoint decided to move the whole line out of the culvert to the south side of the road. Inbound drivers may notice long lengths of welded blue pipe stacked up between Russell-Palmer and Kings Mill. That’s what that is for.
Next Steps
Contractors will start removing trees for the south entry pond at 59 during the week of 9/24/23. Here is the latest revised schedule. Check back often for more updates as they happen.
In northeast Houston, where residents and activists frequently chant “historic disinvestment,” I accidentally stumbled onto a much more likely cause of the frequent flooding than systemic racism. It happened while browsing a GIS database with hundreds of layers containing a broad range of information. The instant I saw it, it unlocked a mystery. Tumblers suddenly aligned that unlocked the mystery. But let’s start this story with accusations that made no sense to me.
Accusations of Systemic Racism Not Supported by Spending Data
Three years ago, I joined the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force. Ever since, I have heard a constant drumbeat of “historic disinvestment” by many members who believe they are victims of systemic racism by Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD).
They claim that they aren’t getting their fair share of flood-mitigation funds when, in fact, financial analysis reveals the opposite. They get the lion’s share.
LMI vs. Non-LMI flood-mitigation funding through Q3 2021.
Eight watersheds with a majority of low-to-moderate income residents have received almost two thirds of the funding going back to 2000. That’s out of a total of 23 watersheds. The money has flowed to damage – as it should.
Many people, however, don’t believe that. The loudest complaints have come from the Northeast Action Collective. They waged a battle to remove flood-control executives from office who were working tirelessly on their behalf.
Regardless, falsehoods repeated often enough eventually rose to the level of “accepted truth.” Even experts can be fooled. Jim Blackburn, the renowned professor of engineering at Rice, repeated the “historic disinvestment” claim without presenting any proof in a Houston Chronicle story last week.
He claimed residents of Halls and Greens Bayou watersheds weren’t getting their “fair share” of flood mitigation money. In fact, Greens Bayou ranks #2 in terms of money received. Only Brays Bayou has received more.
Spending by Watershed from 2000 through 2023Q1. Source: Harris County Flood Control District via FOIA request.
And tiny Halls Bayou ranks #2 in spending per capita. Together, the two bayous have received more than $390 million to date.
And they could soon receive another $466 million out of the $750 million that the GLO and HUD recently granted Harris County for flood mitigation. If HUD approves the recommended projects totaling $466 million, Halls and Greens will have received $856 million – far more than any other watershed. (Technically Halls is a sub-watershed of Greens, but HCFCD tracks spending as if it were separate.) This is hardly historic disinvestment.
More Likely Cause of Flooding Overlooked by Critics Crying Racism
Today, while learning a new (to me) geographic information system, I randomly clicked on a “wetland” layer. Boom! Guess where the largest concentration of wetlands in Harris County is. The northeast!
Note Lake Houston in the upper right, once home to untold acres of wetlands before the dam was built in the 1950s.
As a reminder of what these wetlands once looked like, see the photos of Emily Murphy who kayaks along the shores of Lake Houston.
Photo Courtesy of Emily Murphy
Regulations discourage building in wetlands for good reasons. Water collects there. The soil is less permeable. They are low, poorly drained, and unstable.
In addition, USGS points out the many positive benefits of wetlands. “Wetlands provide habitat for thousands of species of aquatic and terrestrial plants and animals. Wetlands are valuable for flood protection, water quality improvement, shoreline erosion control, natural products, recreation, and aesthetics.”
But because they’re cheap land and available, some less-than-scrupulous developers often try to build in them. I’m told by engineers I trust that that has always been the case and always will be.
Back in the 1950s, farms and ranches occupied most of the northeast Houston area. Here’s what it looked like then.
Note the San Jacinto River in the upper right in this 1953 pre-Lake Houston aerial image from Google Earth.
And here’s what the same area looks like today.
Note the presence of Lake Houston in the upper right in this 2022 image.
There are still big undeveloped areas in the image above. But many developments have also filled in large parts of the northeast that were once wetlands in the 1950s image.
Dangers of Building Over Wetlands
According to USGS, “Wetlands are transitional areas, sandwiched between permanently flooded deepwater environments and well-drained uplands, where the water table is usually at or near the surface or the land… The single feature that most wetlands share is soil or substrate that is at least periodically saturated with or covered by water.”
Four years ago, I posted about the disadvantages of building over wetlands. Pictures of the Woodridge Village property, then under development by Perry Homes, dramatized how unstable the soils were. Dangers of building over wetlands include shifting slabs, cracked driveways, mold, erosion, clogged storm drains, flooding and more.
Unsuspecting buyers of former wetlands can literally get sucked in by low prices. Seventy years later, the original builders and buyers are long gone. And pre-digital soil samples and drainage analyses (if they were ever done) have long since disappeared into the fog of history or a dusty warehouse.
Wetland-mitigation banks near a development should raise red flags to buyers today. There’s one on the northeast corner of Beltway 8 along, you guessed it, Greens Bayou. There are also two in Colony Ridge: the Houston-Conroe and Tarkington Bayou Mitigation Banks.
In conclusion…
Today’s residents in such areas pay for previous owners’ lack of knowledge – not because of historic disinvestment.
I’m not saying early owners didn’t exercise due diligence. We just didn’t know then what we know now.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/22/23
2215 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20230922-Screenshot-2023-09-22-at-12.29.43-PM.jpg?fit=1100%2C717&ssl=17171100adminadmin2023-09-22 17:58:482023-09-22 18:17:41GIS Data Reveals Likely Source of NE Houston Flooding Unrelated to Historic Disinvestment
Updated 3/7/26 – I wrote my first post about Colony Ridge in May 2020. Since then, I have written more than 80 about the controversial, Liberty County colonia that’s now 50% larger than Manhattan. Virtually all of them cover aspects of drainage, wetlands and flooding, as well as the development’s impact on people, the environment and surrounding areas.
The articles also include stories on surrounding developments by the same developer, but operating under different names. But you do not need those to support the 50% larger calculation above.
I’m listing all of my Colony-Ridge-related stories here to make them easier for readers to find.
Colonia Now Drawing National Attention
During the past 3+ years, the growth of Colony Ridge, an unincorporated development, has overwhelmed smaller incorporated areas around it such as Plum Grove and Cleveland.
As a result, fast-growing Colony Ridge has attracted national attention by numerous journalists, not all of it welcomed by the developer. My focus has been almost exclusively on flooding, drainage and water quality issues. Other journalists have focused on crime, cartels, drugs, illegal immigration, overwhelmed schools, predatory lending practices, evictions, the marketing practices of the developer and more.
Here is a list of the drainage related articles. I’ve also taken thousands of pictures – far too many to insert them all here. But I have included a few. See more when you follow the links below.
2020
Due to failure to follow drainage regulations, erosion is eating people’s yards.Note gap under new fence.
I took this shot shortly before Christmas. Poverty in Colony Ridge is heartbreaking. Note the food still on the table. Residents say multiple families often live in such a home.
Dirt often piled by the sides of ditches erodes back into the ditches and gets carried downstream. There, it can reduce conveyance and must be dredged to control flood risk.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/20/2023and updated on 3/7/26
2213 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
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Recent expansion of the Colony Ridge development in Liberty County means that the controversial colonia is now 50 percent bigger than Manhattan.
By advertising exclusively to Hispanics under the name Terrenos Houston (translation: Houston Land), the developer has largely managed to fly under the radar of regulators as it rapidly expands.
Comparison Of Areas in Google Earth
Colony Ridge now occupies approximately 34.5 square miles. The developer also owns additional land in surrounding areas not yet under development or being developed under different names. But I have NOT counted those areas in this comparison.
In contrast, Google Earth shows that the island of Manhattan occupies 22.8 square miles.
That means Colony Ridge is 51% larger than Manhattan. Yet few people have ever heard of Colony Ridge. As proud Texans, we need to change that.
Other Comparisons of Manhattan and Colony Ridge
Population
Of course, Manhattan still has the population edge over Colony Ridge: 1.6 million vs. something less. The exact population of Colony Ridge is unknown because many undocumented aliens live there who avoided the last census.
Commerce
And…
While Manhattan is a center of world commerce, Colony Ridge has a dollar store and an ice machine.
So Colony Ridge has some catching up to do in the “commerce” department.
Car Repair
Many people in Manhattan don’t bother to own cars, so repair places are few and far between.
But people need vehicles to get around in Colony Ridge; there is no public transit. Accordingly, the development has far more shade-tree mechanics.
And the parking is much easier and cheaper in Colony Ridge than Manhattan.
How many people in Manhattan can park 30 cars in their yard while they work on them?
Scenic Rivers
Manhattan is surrounded by iconic rivers. Colony Ridge has rivers of mud. But at least kids can play soccer in them during droughts.
Manhattan is famous for its trash. In fact, trash there has helped decide mayoral elections going back decades. Colony Ridge doesn’t have a mayor, so trash is rarely an issue.
Common sight in Colony Ridge yards.
Advantage Colony Ridge…if you’re a hoarder.
Home Values
Manhattan is also famous for high-priced real estate. Colony Ridge is famous for its low-priced real estate. Advantage: Colony Ridge on that score. No wonder it’s growing so fast!
Tarps are popular roof alternatives in Colony Ridge. They hold down home repair costs.
That’s important. Look at the angle on the left front corner of the home above.
Parking Your Home
Manhattan has absolutely no place to park your home. However, Colony Ridge has thousands of acres. Advantage Colony Ridge…again!
I’d count this one a toss up, however. Why? It still can take hours to get into and out of BOTH Manhattan AND Colony Ridge.
Diversity
Manhattan is widely regarded as a cross-roads of the world and hosts the United Nations.
Colony Ridge IS the united nations…of South America, Central America, and Mexico in Liberty County.
Regardless, I’d have to give the diversity advantage to Manhattan. I don’t see the Colony Ridge developer taking any initiative to reach out to Poles, Jews, Italians, Irish, Asians, Germans, Czechs, Scandinavians, Indians, Africans or other ethnicities.
Fire Hydrants
In Manhattan, people are always tripping over fire hydrants and most buildings are sprinklered.
In Colony Ridge, though, they’ve learned to make do without all those trip hazards that can drive up the developer’s costs. Colony Ridge has a grand total of 59 hydrants in an area 50 percent bigger than Manhattan.
Hotel Costs
A hotel room in Manhattan can easily cost hundreds of dollars per night. But people can pitch tents in Colony Ridge and avoid all those pesky mini-bar fees while they work out their business deals.
Colony Ridge Hotel
Plus, you’ll see waaaay more stars in Colony Ridge. Advantage: Liberty County.
Write Your Favorite Travel Guide
Surely everyone can agree that Colony Ridge deserves a place in all of the state’s travel guides. Colony Ridge is truly a tribute to what lack of regulation and enforcement can produce.
We have something unique in Colony Ridge that is a tribute to Texas ingenuity – a place that welcomes people without papers and makes entrepreneurs rich. Let’s put it on the tourist maps and focus the world’s attention on a true Texas marvel.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/17/2023
2210 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20230812-RJR_5769-1.jpg?fit=1100%2C728&ssl=17281100adminadmin2023-09-17 19:18:192023-09-19 14:44:53Colony Ridge Now 50 Percent Bigger than Manhattan
Noon, September 16, 2023 – An Associated Press headline this morning trumpeted “Climate change could bring more monster storms like Hurricane Lee to New England.” I immediately went to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) website to see the most current conditions. Lee had been downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone with 75 mph winds.
But it still covers a lot of territory. As of noon, Lee is producing 1-2 foot storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds in portions of Maine. NHC gave the northeastern tip of Maine a 5-15% chance of flash flooding. They predict 1-4 inches of rain over portions of the state that receive rain, though the extreme eastern tip may get up to 6 inches.
Satellite image shows Lee’s influence stretching from maritime Canada to New Jersey.
Does Climate Data Support AP Claim?
Next, I went to NHC’s Climatology page to see how unusual hurricanes are in New England. Because of the colder waters, they’re certainly not as frequent as hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. But they’re also not unusual as you can clearly see from the image below. It shows hurricane tracks going back to 1851.
Red lines show hurricanes with the winds from 64-90 mph.
Next, I looked at the points of origin for Atlantic storms in the 10-day period each season from Sept. 11 – 20.
Going back to 1851, we can see that dozens of storms have followed Lee’s path .
In fact, during September, there’s at least a 70% annual chance that a hurricane will affect this region (see below).
Lee’s track is THE most common for named storms in the Atlantic during September (red area).
Data goes from 1944 to 2020, but is normalized for 100 years. 1944 was the year NOAA started tracking hurricanes with aircraft.
The AP article related higher than normal sea surface temperatures to BOTH climate change and the risk of being affected by a hurricane in New England. It’s true that temperatures ARE above average off the New England coast this year. But it’s also true that temperatures cycle above and below an “average.” You can’t assume that sea surface temperatures ALWAYS increase.
This 28-second animation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from 2002-2011 shows how temperatures vary monthly and annually around the world as well as off the coast of New England.
Starting point of animation is August 2002. Note below-normal sea-surface temps off New England coast.
During the decade covered by the animation, SSTs varied from above to below average five times by my count.
It’s fair to relate one stronger than normal hurricane to higher than normal sea surface temperatures. But it’s not valid to assume that hurricanes will continue to get stronger when sea surface temperatures decrease.
The Curse of Data Truncation
And that brings me to my gripe – data truncation in reporting. “Truncation” means “cutting short,” for instance, when you pick start or stop points in an analysis to prove the trend you allege.
Example: you point to above-normal SSTs (this year) and one waning post-tropical storm. Then you conclude that “climate change could bring more monster storms like Lee.”
The implication: climate change is linear and temperatures are going straight up. Therefore, we can expect more monster storms in New England – where Lee will not even make landfall.
Reporting Turned into Advocacy
AP is a great news organization. But on the issue of climate uncertainty, they have crossed the line between reporting and advocacy. AP even admits it.
To their credit, in 2022, AP announced “a sweeping climate change initiative.” They hired 20 additional journalists to supplement existing staff already dedicated to covering climate change. Their mission: “to infuse climate coverage in all aspects of the news…”
To help finance its climate coverage, AP accepts backing from several foundations, including the Rockefeller Foundation, which admits, “Our focus is on scaling renewable energy.”
I’m not saying that AP or the Rockefeller Foundation deliberately misled people to further an agenda.
However, I can promise you that writers write about what clients want them to write about. And if they don’t, well, hundreds of other writers are lined up ready to take their jobs.
This isn’t a conspiracy. It’s just the way the world works.
Other News Sources Delivered Different Interpretation
Everyone should read critically and consult multiple sources. Triangulate on the truth. Had you read someone else’s coverage, you would have reached totally different conclusions. In that regard, I note several stories posted AFTER AP’s story on Lee that did not even mention climate change once. See CNN,CBS, New York Times, NBC, Reuters,USA Today, or Fox, for instance.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/16/2023
2209 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
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The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA), which is managing a feasibility study on two Spring Creek dams, has run into some unexpected hurdles. They involve the benefit-cost ratio and competing uses for the land. Matt Barrett, PE, the SJRA’s Water Resources and Flood Management Division Manager, updated ReduceFlooding on the status of the project.
Project Location Near Montgomery
Harris County Flood Control District, five municipal utility districts, the City of Humble, and the Texas Water Development board are also involved in this project. The dams could reportedly reduce flood levels up to half a foot for 40 miles downstream.
The proposed Spring Creek Flood Control Dams would lie in far northeastern Waller County, a few miles west of Magnolia in Montgomery County.
Second Time Around for Spring Creek Dams
The SJRA first recognized the flood mitigation benefits of dams in the Spring Creek watershed back in 1985. But ironically, while the land could have been bought for a song back then, the projects failed to achieve favorable benefit-cost ratios because so few people lived in the then-rural area.
Fast forward 32 years to Hurricane Harvey when more than 10,000 structures downstream flooded. Experts identified more upstream stormwater-detention as one of the top three priorities for flood mitigation.
When I asked Matt Barrett, PE, the SJRA’s Water Resources and Flood Management Division Manager about the status of the dams, he had this to say. “We’re still working on the feasibility study. We ran into a couple hurdles when we started digging further into the proposed reservoirs.”
Benefit-Cost Ratio
What kind of hurdles? “First, after modeling was updated as part of the study, the benefit/cost ratios came out lower than was previously estimated as part of the San Jacinto Regional Watershed Master Drainage Plan,” said Barrett.
“I think we have a solution for this issue,” he said. “Once we optimized dam sizes and incorporated ‘social benefits’ (which the Federal Government now will consider) into the calculations, the BCRs came out at 1.88 and 2.03 for the two reservoirs.” That means the benefits exceed the costs, a crucial hurdle.
“Because of their costs, the reservoirs would almost certainly rely on some level of Federal participation for construction.”
Matt Barrett, PE
Competing Uses for Land
“The other issue,” Barrett continued, “is that each planned reservoir site is also the site of another planned development, which was not identified until we got into the feasibility study.”
A residential/commercial development is planned for the Birch Creek reservoir site, and a large solar farm for the Walnut Creek site.
Barrett said, “No ground has been broken on the former, and I would like to work with the developers to see if we can come up with a scenario where both projects could exist. Construction HAS begun at the solar farm site, and we are coordinating to determine what options there might be for future coexistence at the site.”
Funding Partners Will Determine Path Forward, Timetable
“We are currently scheduling meetings with elected officials to present the project and its challenges,” said Barrett. “We want to get their input. Our goal is to get back together with our funding partners likely early next month to determine our path forward.
“The draft report should be completed by April next year, but that is subject to change. We are behind schedule due to the challenges experienced.”
Project Will Ultimately Depend on Several Factors
Barrett concluded, “Whether the reservoirs ultimately get built will be based on the results of the study and whether there is an entity willing to champion the project through design and construction and ultimately own and take responsibility for operations and maintenance of one or both reservoirs.”
Alternative Possibilities
The SJRA is not actively looking at alternative reservoir sites. However, SJRA and its partners have discussed it. “If we determine the hurdles at the two proposed sites make those sites infeasible, we could consider other sites,” said Barrett. “That said, we selected those two sites because they seemed the most promising. Other sites may not pan out for other reasons. One potential alternative is to look at several smaller detention sites.”
Harris County’s Office of Management and Budget proposed an 11.5% budget increase during the Commissioners Court special meeting held on September 12, 2023. See below.
Proposed on 9/12/2023, but not yet approved.
Flood Control Maintenance Increase
If adopted, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) would receive an $11.8 million increase from tax revenue for Maintenance and Operations spending – up 10.4% from FY2022.
Given the number of new capital projects, such as stormwater detention basins that Flood Control has created in the last year, that increase seems reasonable. The number of acres that HCFCD needs to maintain steadily increases as it builds new assets.
HCFCD now manages 2,500 miles of channels, more than 260 detention basins, 2 levee systems, 3 mitigation banks, and more than 3,200 buyout lots.
Two-thirds of Flood Control’s infrastructure was constructed before 1984 and much of it needs rehabilitation. The District has identified 160 assets with defects, 117 with blockages or conveyance issues, and 215 where vegetation requires serious attention.
As with anything, deferring maintenance too long can lead to failure. Then reconstruction costs can greatly exceed repair costs.
Flood Control Debt-Service Increase
Flood Control also shows an increase in its proposed tax rate to handle debt service – 8.2%. This makes sense as we keep borrowing more and more money against the $2.5 billion bond that voters authorized in 2018.
It could take decades to pay off the interest on money borrowed this year. And next year, we’ll borrow more. The total interest payments increase over time as borrowing accumulates. High interest rates like we have now can increase the total need even more.
Partner Contributions Help Offset Debt-Service, But Are Dropping
The $2.5 billion bond actually identified $5 billion worth of projects. A portion of the original $2.5 B was designated as local-match money to attract partner funding. So for every project, roughly half of the total cost was supposed to be local dollars (tax revenue and/or borrowing). The other half was supposed to have come from partners, such as FEMA, HUD, and the State.
That said, partner funding never has come close to 50%. Q2 of 2020 came the closest at 41%. But the percentage has also dipped as low as 14% recently. Since the start of the bond, partner dollars have comprised 30% of all spending.
Partner spending in recent quarters has declined significantly. Through 22Q1, partner spending averaged $28.4 million per quarter. Since then, the quarterly total has averaged only $11.5 million. That’s a 59% decrease.
Through 22Q1, partner funding ranged between $20-45 million. Since then it hasn’t exceeded $20 million.
To make up for the lack of projected partner funds, HCFCD has had to spend more County/Bond dollars to keep projects moving. And it has done so in a period of high interest rates.
Note how drops in partner spending often trigger spikes in County spending.
As partner funds have fallen off in recent months, so has the overall level of HCFCD spending.
Data for this and all tables/graphs obtained from HCFCD via multiple FOIA requests.
Here’s the data which these graphs reflect. This particular series starts with the approval of the flood bond in late 2018.
Is It a Fair Budget Increase?
That depends on whether you see any flood-mitigation efforts that benefit you. If your area is getting projects, the answer is yes. But if not, you probably wouldn’t be happy with a 1% increase. And out of the $1.5 billion spent to date, precious little has been spent in the San Jacinto watershed.
Regardless, when setting budgets, we must consider dozens of different factors, not the least of which is partner funding. It can extend bond dollars. And consider this.
If we can use the HUD money to accelerate construction and preserve bond dollars, we might have enough money to complete all the projects in the bond.
Conversely, with a shortfall in the partnership percentage, more county dollars will go toward projects in low income neighborhoods. That may leave no money for projects in affluent neighborhoods before we burn through the bond funds.
At the very least, I say we need to beef up the HCFCD staff applying for grants. I’ll bet we can all agree on that.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/14/2023
2207 Days since Hurricane Harvey.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Screenshot-2023-09-14-at-6.26.16-PM.png?fit=1308%2C784&ssl=17841308adminadmin2023-09-14 21:16:572023-09-15 08:47:33Harris County Proposes 11.5% Budget Increase
Reprinted with minor edits from an article posted by the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB) on 9/11/2023 – Flooding is the most common and deadly disaster in the state. It has plagued Texans for generations, costing billions in property damage—and worse, loss of lives. So, flood mitigation is at the top of the list when it comes to addressing the most challenging water issues across the 269,000 square miles of Texas.
2018 NOAA Study Revealed Rainfall Assumptions Inadequate
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration published a study in 2018 revealing that rainfall values in some parts of Texas previously classified as 100-year events are now categorized as much more frequent 25-year events.
Varied topography and proximity to the Gulf of Mexico have always played a significant role in the state’s flood events. So has the population in Texas; it surpassed 30 million last year. according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Recent exponential growth, coupled with the already complex landscape, necessitates more forward-thinking flood planning and coordination. For instance…
We need to consider how natural features in new developments and infrastructure projects can work to our benefit to reduce flood risks.
TWDB
Participate in Online Survey
To help address flood issues across the state, TWDB is conducting an online survey now through September 29. Purpose: to collect input on the use of nature-based solutions to mitigate flood risk. Responses will help develop a guidance manual for communities seeking to implement these projects.
Nature-based solutions are broad, ranging from detention and retention ponds to preservation of natural features, such as floodplains and wetlands, or may even include roadside ditches with nature-based components. Sometimes, projects designed to improve water quality or intended to provide other environmental benefits can also work to mitigate flooding.
“The work that we’re doing is from a lens of flood mitigation. But really, there are likely greater benefits for water quality, environmental enhancement, and even for public recreation and enjoyment,” said Saul Nuccitelli, the TWDB’s Director of Flood Science and Community Assistance. “We’re looking to try to integrate and connect those project benefits and encourage folks who are doing flood work to seek out ways to incorporate nature-based components into their projects.”
Examples of Nature-Based Solutions
Nature-based solutions often include community benefits:
Nature-based solutions can often provide benefits to the community while serving as flood-mitigation strategies. The Humble-Kingwood area has numerous examples of flood-mitigation solutions that improve quality of life. For example, the 100+ mile Kingwood trail network, East End Park, Creekwood Nature Preserve, River Grove Park, and the Spring Creek Nature Trail are hugely popular community amenities that reduce flood risk.
188-acre East End Park attracts more than 100,000 visitors per year. It contains 5 miles of trails weaving through meadows, forests and wetlands that reduce flood risk while enhancing quality of life for people and animals.
Goal of Survey: ID Sustainable Building Blocks for Growth
The TWDB’s survey will capture examples of projects and programs using nature-based solutions with flood mitigation benefits. TWDB wants to learn about solutions in the varying ecoregions across Texas.
The goal of the guidance manual is to make practical case studies of projects, incentive program concepts, and regulatory templates available to community officials, decision-makers, and other practitioners. Many are interested in nature-based solutions as value-added alternatives to traditional flood infrastructure.
“If you find ways to incorporate nature-based solutions, it doesn’t mean people need to stay out of it all the time,” said Nuccitelli. “For example, you may have an area that’s wetland mitigation or wetland banking, so you may want to minimize how much traffic goes through it or what goes on there, but to the extent that you can include recreational activities associated with a project, urban economic benefit and utilizing nature can be somewhat synergistic.”
Reducing Runoff up to 5X
According to the Environmental Protection Agency, when 10 to 20 percent of a watershed is covered by impervious surfaces like roads or parking lots, runoff doubles. If impervious surfaces cover 100 percent of a watershed, the runoff is five times that of a forested area, which significantly increases the potential for flooding.
Incorporating nature-based solutions into a new project could potentially help manage runoff from future growth. For example, identifying and preserving healthy stands of trees or wetlands to utilize those existing natural features as amenities, such as a pocket park or an area of trees next to homes.
Data Will Ultimately Help Build/Fund Community Resources
By developing a guidance manual, the TWDB aims to
1) Share data and information about the benefits of nature-based solutions that could then empower communities to adopt them
2) Provide tools, research, case studies, incentive program concepts, and example ordinances—anything that a community may use as a resource if it’s interested in pursuing these solutions
3) Share details about funding opportunities and grant applications for these types of projects.
“That would be a big success if communities could take what we’re developing within the guidance manual to further encourage or enhance nature-based solutions,” said Nuccitelli.
Once the survey responses are compiled and the guidance manual is developed, the TWDB plans to release the draft in the summer of 2024 for public input.
For More Information
To learn more about nature-based solutions for flood mitigation in Texas, visit the TWDB website. To take the survey, click here. It takes about 15 minutes, but is a very thought-provoking.
See more TWDB articles about flood mitigation posted in Flood.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/13/2023 based on a TWDB article
2206 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/EEP-Poster-Small-scaled-e1694619352344.jpg?fit=1100%2C1646&ssl=116461100adminadmin2023-09-13 10:38:222023-09-13 11:31:52TWDB Wants Your Input on Nature-Based Flood-Mitigation Solutions
