New Data Suggests Houston’s Expected 100-Year Flood Is More Likely to Happen Every 8 to 23 Years

First Street Foundation, a non-profit risk-research group, estimates (based on what it says are “well known” Atlas-14 flaws) that a so-called 100-year flood event in Houston could likely happen every 8 to 23 years.

NOAA’s Atlas 14, a massive, years-long effort, which hasn’t even been fully implemented yet, may already be seriously out of date according to First Street.

As a result, First Street claims the design standards for infrastructure projects based on erroneous Atlas-14 data are likely to fail. Trillions of infrastructure investment dollars hang in the balance.

NOAA Replacing Atlas 14 with Atlas 15 Already

NOAA expects to release its latest Atlas-15 rainfall probability statistics for the U.S. sometime in 2027. Like Atlas 14 below, they will contain probabilities for every location in the country – for durations ranging from 5 minutes to 60 days and recurrence intervals from 1 year to 1000 years.

atlas 14 rainfall probabilities
Atlas 14 Probabilities for the North Houston area.

Moreover, for the first time ever, Atlas-15 probabilities will come in two flavors: with and without estimates for the impact of climate change.

First Street Foundation, a non-profit research and technology group, specializes in environmental risk assessment. They position their system, RiskFactor.com, as a stopgap until NOAA releases Atlas 15.

Time Lags Cause Confusion, Create Danger

FEMA still has not released flood maps based on the Atlas-14 probabilities above. The MAAPNext Group within Harris County Flood Control District has been working on those since Harvey. MAAPNext’s latest timeline (below) shows that FEMA may not make Atlas-14-based flood maps official for another 3+ years.

Engineers and government officials use this data when designing new subdivisions, industrial facilities, bridges, highways and other infrastructure.

For instance, they need to know, how high the bridge must be to let water flow under it during a flood to avoid catastrophes like the one below.

I-69 repairs
Old data led TxDoT to inadequately design the I-69 bridge over the San Jacinto West Fork. Repairs took more than a year after Harvey to complete while residents endured massive traffic jams.

Atlas 15 Underway Before Atlas 14 Implemented

A copyrighted article in the New York Times this morning by Raymond Zhong was titled “Intensifying Rains Pose Hidden Flood Risks Across the U.S.” In it, Mr. Zhong claims that new calculations show hazardous storms can dump significantly more water than previously believed.

“One in nine residents of the lower 48 states, largely in populous regions including the Mid-Atlantic and the Texas Gulf Coast, is at significant risk of downpours that deliver at least 50 percent more rain per hour than local pipes, channels and culverts might be designed to drain,” says Zhong.

Compounding the problem, “NOAA’s estimates are ‘the floor, not a ceiling,'” said Zhong, quoting Abdullah Hasan, a White House spokesman.

“That means millions of homeowners might be making decisions with an incomplete understanding of the true physical and financial risks they face,” said Zhong.

145,000 Houston Homes and Billions in Infrastructure Caught in Time Lag

Zhong quoted First Street Foundation, which said that in Houston alone, as many as 145,000 homes may be in the 100-year flood zone, but that they are not shown that way in current FEMA flood maps.

To put Atlas 15 and its climate change corrections into perspective…

First Street estimates that in Houston, what we currently think of as a 100-year flood may actually be an 8- to 23-year flood.

First Street Foundation Press Release

All this comes as the nation gears up to spend more than $1.2 trillion dollars on infrastructure which Congress and President Biden approved in 2021.

And that $1.2 trillion doesn’t even include the money homebuyers spend each year. About 30% of all household income in the U.S. goes toward housing. And the average American moves once every seven years.

That means virtually everyone is likely not making home-buying decisions based on the most current (accurate) flood probabilities. By the time FEMA releases Harvey-based Atlas-14 flood maps, Atlas-15 revisions will already be available to a select few.

While the Association of State Flood Plain Managers finds First Street data useful, it emailed a report at the close of business today about First Street. The report says that “ASFPM has and will continue to support NOAA’s work on Atlas 14 and 15, which will remain the gold standard within our profession.”

Problems Caused By Lack of Timely Updates

The vast majority of developers, homebuilders and engineers are ethical. But some less scrupulous developers can exploit confusion caused by irregular update policies.

Likewise, engineers who designed a bridge to one set of specs, may find their work out-dated before construction starts. What are the ethical obligations in a case like that?

Just this year, we’ve seen numerous instances of developers trying to get their plans grandfathered under pre-Atlas-14 regulations even as the U.S. moves toward Atlas 15. Little wonder that when a flood happens, few can explain where the system went wrong.

“The fact that the Nation will not have the most accurate estimates of extreme precipitation likelihoods available at the time of the design of these projects means that many of them will be out of date on the day they are opened to the public,” said Matthew Eby, Founder and Executive Director of First Street Foundation.

Governments at all levels need to work better together to shorten the data supply chain. Doing so could save Americans trillions of dollars.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/26/2023

2127 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Some Projects in Flood Bond Likely Won’t Get Done While Others Not in Bond Will

While speaking to a public meeting of the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force, Scott Elmer, the Flood Control District’s new Chief Partnership and Programs Officer, predicted that some projects in the 2018 flood bond likely will not get done because of a funding gap.

Elmer made this remark while discussing a list of projects proposed by Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) for funding from grants totaling $825 million from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the Texas General Land Office (GLO).

The $825 million is the last large pot of money still sitting on the sidelines from Harvey. But it likely won’t stretch far enough to complete all the projects in the bond.

Despite a partner funding gap of approximately $800 million (published in 2021), the $825 million would only reduce the gap by approximately an estimated $420 million. How could that possibly be? For one thing…

Not all projects proposed to GLO were in the flood bond.

Origins of Funding Gap

To understand the funding gap, one needs to start with the structure of the 2018 flood bond. It contained a list of projects totaling almost $5 billion, but voters approved borrowing only half of that. The other half was supposed to come from partners, such as FEMA, HUD, local governments and the Texas Water Development Board.

Then COVID and inflation struck. Supply chain issues and labor shortages drove up the cost of projects approximately 20-30%, according to Elmer.

Meanwhile, not all of the hoped-for partner funding materialized. For instance, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) was hoping for a billion dollars from HUD, added Elmer, but received only $825 million. (The County siphoned off almost a quarter billion dollars for Harris County Engineering and Community Services Departments.)

Some Projects Expand While Others May Be Excluded

Complicating the squeeze between the upward pressure of price inflation and less-than-hoped-for funding, HCFCD added (in some cases) to the scope of projects listed in the bond.

  • For instance, HCFCD originally budgeted the Greens Bayou Mid-Reach Project for $20 million in the bond. But HCFCD lists it at $90 million in the proposed GLO list – a 4.5X increase. The first figure reportedly includes the original phases of the project. The second includes those PLUS others which had been deferred for a subsequent bond.
  • Another example: The Arbor Oaks Stormwater Detention Basin in the White Oak Bayou watershed started out as a $13.3 million project in the bond, but now weighs in at $42.3 million. Its price more than tripled.

A person familiar with the Arbor Oaks project said it could easily be phased, but that it appears some phases (which had initially been deferred) were now recommended for immediate construction.

Lower part of Arbor Oaks area on bottom left. Bridge is on West Little York. Looking SE toward downtown.
Lower part of Arbor Oaks area on bottom left. Bridge is on West Little York. Looking SE toward downtown.

Those two projects alone account for an additional $100 million in scope.

“Use It or Lose It” Deadlines Place Emphasis on Shovel-Ready Projects

The projects recommended on the GLO list largely came from projects which had already been extensively studied and which are near shovel ready. That’s primarily because of two factors:

  • The county took 2-years between GLO’s announcement of a $750 million allocation for Harris County and the County’s submission of a plan for spending the money.
  • Meanwhile, the original HUD deadlines placed on using the money have not slipped. So, HCFCD now has its back up against a “use it or lose it deadline” wall.

If money isn’t spent before HUD deadlines, HUD will take the money back – not just unspent funds, but all funds allocated to incomplete projects. So, say for instance, HCFCD spent $50 million on a project, but had $10 million to go when the deadline arrived. HCFCD would have to give back the $50 million it already spent.

Obviously, the specter of having already-spent funds clawed back by the federal government made “construction readiness” a huge factor in project selection that wasn’t there almost six years ago when Harvey struck.

This means projects given priority by the Equity Prioritization Framework were closer to shovel ready. Presumably, they also helped meet Low-to-Moderate Income (LMI) requirements placed on the HUD funds.

No other large pots of aid dedicated to Harvey remain out there. So, annual programs, such as FEMA’s Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) and Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) represent HCFCD’s best hope to make up the rest of the funding gap.

But the competition for those grants is nationwide. They include all states, territories, the District of Columbia and tribal lands. And Texas applications are handicapped because Texas has not updated its building codes in almost a decade to qualify for BRIC funding – despite an 11-to-1 payback.

Updating Project Cost Estimates to Recalculate Funding Gap

Elmer says he cannot calculate an exact funding gap at this time. “We’re still working on updating all project costs with the inflation estimates,” he said.

Elmer hopes to have a firmer estimate by August when the Flood Control District expects to issue its second flood-bond update this year.

I personally hope that the District’s recent reorganization can help it track such financing issues better in the future. It appears that after years of promising residents that all projects in the bond would be completed, now some may not be…while others that were not in the bond will be.

And I suspect I know whose won’t be.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/24/23

2125 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Ready for Emergencies?

Harris County’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management has produced an excellent presentation designed to help you get ready for emergencies of almost any type. While it primarily focuses on hurricanes, it also covers other natural and man-made disasters such as tornadoes, train derailments, plant explosions, and more.

Complexity Complicates Times of Chaos

Some reminders: Harris County has…

  • More people than half the states in the country
  • The largest port (by export tonnage)
  • The largest petrochemical complex in the world
  • 56 fire departments
  • 125 law enforcement agencies
  • 34 cities
  • 23 major watersheds
  • 1200+ utility districts
  • 9,000 miles of pipeline

Staying safe amidst that kind of complexity requires preparedness and situational awareness.

Fundamentals of Safety

The presentation focuses on four fundamentals of preparedness:

  • Getting a kit
  • Making a plan
  • Staying informed
  • Being involved.

It also contains numerous links you can use to sign up for alerts from various sources.

Homeland Security urges you to share the presentation and links below with family, friends, neighbors and community groups.

Better yet, ask them to put on a personalized presentation for your group. Remember. Some people may not have the ability to see, hear, or evacuate as well as you.

Helpful Links

Website: www.readyharris.org

Offices of Emergency Management: Ready Harris > Contact

Sign up for ReadyHarris Alerts: member portal (everbridge.net)

Sign up for ReadyHarris Accessible Alerts: Sign Up | Harris County (ahasalerts.com)

Hurricane Brochures: 

Accessible Videos: ASL Videos 

Disaster Checklist 

Harris County Resources: 

Other resources: 

STEAR Evacuation Assistance

Not Enough First Responders to Help Everyone

Less than 1% of the people in Harris County are first responders. So we must help each other to the extent we can.

It normally takes until June 20th before we have our first named storm in the Atlantic Basin. However, we’ve already had three so far this year. And this was supposed to be an average year.

So please bookmark this page and share it.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/23/23

2024 Days since Hurricane Harvey

GLO Announces Regional Mitigation-Project Approvals Totaling $128 Million

Two pieces of good news came out of the Texas General Land Office (GLO) in two days! Yesterday, the GLO announced that both Houston and Harris County met their respective expenditure goals for Harvey disaster-relief funds. Today, Commissioner Dawn Buckingham M.D. announced the approval of more than another $128 million worth of flood-mitigation projects in the region.

This batch of funds includes several major projects in the north Houston region:

  • City of Dayton received $1.45 million for sewer rehabilitation.
  • Liberty County received $21.27 million to develop a master-drainage plan and make drainage improvements.
  • Waller County received $6.7 million for drainage improvements and another $2 million for Prairie View Water Improvements and a Planning study.

Of these, the Liberty County batch stands out for its sheer size. And Liberty County will need it. That’s because of the recently completed Grand Parkway. It cuts a wide arc through the county’s farms and fields. Thousands of acres are currently under development thanks to improved transportation. And they will stress local watersheds, such as the San Jacinto East Fork and Luce Bayou.

Intersection of State Highway 99 (Grand Parkway) and FM1960 shortly before grand opening last year.
Just north of the Grand Parkway, Colony Ridge is doubling in size.

Another Liberty County example.

FM2090 at East Fork of the San Jacinto in Liberty County on May 3, 2021. New development has flooded Plum Grove and areas farther south along the East Fork.

And another.

FM 1010
Also in Plum Grove, FM1010 washed out at Rocky Branch during Harvey and has yet to be repaired.

Scope of HUD/GLO Awards

The GLO awarded the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development funds to improve street, water and drainage facilities in Brazoria, Fort Bend, Galveston, Jefferson, Liberty, Matagorda, Nueces, Polk, San Jacinto, and Waller Counties.

This is a separate tranche of money from the Houston and Harris County disaster-relief funds discussed in yesterday’s post.

$128,208,664 will benefit 19 federally eligible infrastructure projects to improve streets as well as water and drainage facilities. The cities of Aransas Pass, Coldspring, Corrigan, Dayton, Freeport, Hitchcock, Iowa Colony, Katy, La Marque, Palacios, Pearland, Richwood, Rosenberg, Shepherd, Texas City, and the counties of Jefferson, Liberty, and Waller will all receive the mitigation dollars.

Difference Between Disaster Relief and Flood Mitigation

Disaster relief dollars help individuals recover from past floods. Mitigation dollars, on the other hand, help strengthen infrastructure against future floods.

According to the GLO, HUD defines mitigation as “Activities that increase resilience to disasters and reduce or eliminate the long-term risk of loss of life, injury, damage to and loss of property, and suffering and hardship, by lessening the impact of future disasters.”

Locally-Led Methods of Distribution

The approvals announced today will filter down to cities and counties through regional councils of governments (COGs), such as the Houston-Galveston Area Council (HGAC).

Through its Regional Mitigation Program, the GLO enabled local prioritization. This local prioritization will have a tremendous impact across multiple regions, according to Commissioner Buckingham.

“Locally-led prioritization of mitigation projects is important because it strengthens critical infrastructure and protects communities against the impacts of natural disasters,” said Buckingham. “At the Texas General Land Office, we are not only helping those in need, but also supporting our communities as they grow.”

Who Will Get What

The table below shows a high-level description and the award amount for each of the 19 projects. For detailed descriptions of each project, click the caption below the table.

For project descriptions, click here.

How the Money Got from D.C. to Texas Projects on the Ground

The Texas General Land Office (GLO) allocated $1,166,997,000 in Community Development Block Grant Mitigation (CDBG-MIT) funds from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) for the Regional Mitigation Program. The program aims to reduce the risks and impacts of future natural disasters.

Each Council of Government (COG) with HUD-designated eligible counties developed a method of distribution (MOD) for allocation of funds to units of local governments. Each COG developed its MOD through extensive public participation.

HUD requires that at least 50% of total funds must be used for activities benefiting low- to moderate-income (LMI) persons.

For more information, please visit recovery.texas.gov/mitigation.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/20/23

2121 Days since Hurricane Harvey

A First: Houston, Harris County Both Meet HUD/GLO Disaster-Relief Benchmarks in Same Time Period

The Texas General Land Office (GLO) announced today that for the first time ever since Hurricane Harvey, both Houston and Harris County have each met their benchmarks for expending disaster relief funds – in the SAME time period. They may have individually met performance benchmarks before, but never together in the same review period.

Both Harris County and Houston have semiannual expenditure benchmarks in their Community Development Block Grant Disaster Relief funding contracts with the GLO, per HUD guidance. “These milestones were set by the City and County and approved by the GLO to ensure all programs will be completed as timely as possible,” said a GLO spokesperson.

A New Era of Cooperation Yielding Results Already

Dawn Buckingham, M.D., the new GLO Commissioner credits open communications and focused cooperation. “The GLO is dedicated to helping Harris County and the City of Houston put these vital funds to good use.”

GLO Commissioner Dawn Buckingham, M.D., speaking at a joint press conference in March. Others L to R: Harris County Community Services Interim Exec Director Thao Costis, HCFCD Exec Director Dr. Tina Petersen, P4 Commissioner Lesley Briones, P2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia, P3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey PE, P1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis, County Attorney Christian Menefee.

This is good news. In years past, the relationship between Houston, Harris County, GLO and HUD foundered over performance benchmarks, cooperation and communication. But now, new players are in place. And 5+ years after Harvey, the City, County and State all face “use it or lose it” deadlines from HUD.

More Money Hangs in Balance

While the performance benchmarks in question have to do only with unexpended, Harvey-related, disaster-relief funds, much more money hangs in the balance.

The success of the relationship will also affect $750 million in CDBG-mitigation funds and another $322 million in unspent funds that the GLO shifted from expiring projects to Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD).

Earlier this month, HCFCD presented Commissioners Court with a proposed project list for those funds. HCFCD is reportedly still trying to define the areas benefited by each of those projects before final approval. However, HUD and the GLO seem pleased with both the progress and the collaborative working relationships that have developed.

Everyone seems to respond positively to Dr. Buckingham’s working style – described as “supportive,” yet “results oriented.”

  • Commissioner Adrian Garcia stated publicly, “I want to give a shout out to the GLO and Commissioner Buckingham for her support of Harris County and giving us a degree of trust.”
  • Commissioner Tom Ramsey complimented the fairness of project list, noting that it worked out to about 25% for each precinct. He stated, “job well done by the whole.” 
  • Commissioner Lesley Briones said, “This is so wonderful that we were able to hit reset and really focus on the progress going forward.” 

Nature Provides Its Own Deadlines

It can’t happen soon enough for Harris County residents who live under constant threat of floods. Monday afternoon, Tropical Storm Brett formed in the Atlantic. Another storm with an 80% chance of formation in the next 7 days follows closely behind. That’s up from 50% yesterday afternoon.

National Hurricane Center update as of 10:45AM EDT Tuesday, June 20, 2023

It’s too early to tell with any reliability where/whether/when either of these disturbances will make landfall.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/19/2023

2120 Days since Hurricane Harvey and Updated on 6/20/2023 with new storm information and photo.

Would Livable Places Initiative Really Make Housing More Affordable?

Third in a Series on the City of Houston Planning Commission’s Livable Places Initiative

In the first two posts in this series, I discussed how the Houston Planning Commission’s Livable Places Initiative had the potential to:

Despite well intentioned efforts to help limit the growth of impervious cover, the Commission has not conducted a flood study showing the cumulative impact of its recommendations.

Nor does it have any concrete recommendations guaranteed to make housing more affordable – its primary goal.

Effects on Affordability Uncertain

Most of the ordinance changes would let people build more housing in any given area. Changes would allow:

  • More compact development and small-scale, multi-unit housing
  • On less land
  • With fewer parking spots
  • And with narrower driveways. 
Housing variations encouraged by Livable Places increase housing density and impervious cover.

Those recommendations have the potential to reduce redevelopment costs and therefore exert downward pressure on housing prices. Land represents a significant percentage of those housing prices. Also, it takes less labor and fewer materials to build a 1,000 square-foot home than it does a 2,000 square-foot home. But…

How much of those savings will buyers receive and how much will developers pocket? 

Higher density also lets more people share the cost of infrastructure, such as streets and storm sewers. That theoretically exerts downward pressure on prices, too.

But higher runoff associated with more impervious cover could exceed the capacity of those storm drains and ditches. And that could lead to increases in drainage fees.

During the public comment period after the last Planning Commission meeting, one individual referenced outrageous prices for densely packed, small homes in the Heights (see below). He made the point that nothing in the regulations guarantees more affordable housing.

Many of the targeted inner-city neighborhoods already complain about flooding and blame it on historical discrimination. Any increase in impervious cover could make such neighborhoods less livable, not more.

Neither do new regulations do anything to discourage people from subdividing flood-prone lots near channels or streams. That could make future buyouts even more expensive. We’ve already spent billions of dollars mitigating flooding in these areas.

Houston Already Has More Affordable Homes and People Still Move Out

The Planning Commission is filled with bright, intelligent, hard-working people. But they have limited tools at their disposal. While they may be able to make housing more affordable, they have no tools to fight crime, flooding, or failing schools.

Houston already has some of the most affordable housing in the region. Yet people still move out of the City to buy higher priced homes. 

While population in the region is increasing, population in the City of Houston has decreased since the 2020 census. 

Inverted Housing Prices, Demand

Usually, higher prices limit demand and lower prices increase it. But that isn’t happening in the Houston region.

According to the Census Bureau, the average house price in:

  • Houston = $200,000
  • Conroe = $223,300
  • Katy = $290,200
  • Sugar Land = $334,000. 

Houston already has the lowest housing prices!

If people were looking purely for more affordable housing, you would expect Houston’s population to increase, not decrease. 

But what do the high-growth areas have in common? They tend to be suburban with single-family homes that offer yards; a safe environment to raise kids; good schools; easy access to shopping and ample parking.

Perhaps the Planning Department needs to take a broader look at what attracts people and build that into its Livable Places Initiative.

Aerial Photo taken in 2022 north of Houston’s downtown.

In the picture above, note how some blocks have more green space than rooftops, others are entirely covered by rooftops.

Redevelopment under the new rules will bring more of the latter, not the former.

Saving the Green

Denser housing also means fewer trees. According to the EPA, “Trees are increasingly recognized for their importance in managing runoff.”

  • Leaf canopies help reduce erosion caused by falling rain.
  • Rain water can land and evaporate from more surface area.
  • Roots take up water and help create conditions in the soil that promote infiltration.
  • Trees stabilize soil and help regulate streamflow by reducing the velocity of water entering streams.

Yes, trees play a vital role in reducing flooding.

Planning Department staff are fond of saying that higher density housing in Houston will help prevent the clearcutting of forests in outlying areas and, thus, reduce flooding. “Build more homes where the infrastructure already exists,” they argue. 

There is, no doubt, some truth to that – especially on a macro level. Conservation and preservation make valuable flood-fighting tools. But…

Saving trees in one watershed won’t reduce flooding in another.

We need to practice conservation and preservation everywhere – to the extent possible – especially where people are flooding – in Houston.

YIMBY vs. NIMBY

Still, people need homes. And the cost of housing has clearly priced some people out of the housing market. According to the Census Bureau, a generational divide underlies the pricing divide. The housing shortage is dire in many metropolitan areas.

Older baby-boomers may abhor the type of development seen above. They’re literally saying NIMBY (Not in My Backyard!) to garage apartments, infill development and other types of housing encouraged by Livable Places.

But a younger group of millennials who find themselves priced out of the housing market are saying YIMBY (Yes in My Backyard).

Across the nation, renters, are especially cost burdened. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), says anyone who spends more than 30 percent of their income on housing is cost-burdened. Nationally, an estimated 40 percent of rental households and 21.3 percent of households with a mortgage met this threshold in 2018 – when Houston was revising building codes to help prevent another Hurricane-Harvey-type scourge.

One Crisis Vs. Another Crisis

Houston has averaged 3-5 flooding crises, on average, every decade for more than a hundred years. We saw eight in the last decade alone.

For a high resolution PDF, click here. Source: Harris County Flood Control District.

Now we seem to be solving a housing crisis with little regard for the predictable flooding crises we know will strike us. How soon we forget!

City Council Will Vote on Wednesday

City Council will vote on the “Livable Places” recommendations on Wednesday, 6/21/23. The Planning Commission website explains how you can sign up to speak.

ReduceFlooding.com recommends that City Council does NOT approve “Livable Places” recommendations until any potential impact on flooding is known and residents can decide whether the potential increased risk is worth any benefits developers may gain.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/18/23

2119 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Houston Planning Commission’s “Livable Places” Initiative Could Increase Flooding

Second in a series on the Houston Planning Commission’s Livable Places Initiative

“Livable Places” is a new initiative by the City of Houston Planning Commission designed to increase housing affordability and equity while increasing the walkability of neighborhoods.

To achieve these goals, the Commission is recommending new rules that govern development, platting and parking. They would also result in greater housing density especially in inner city neighborhoods. However, they affect the entire city.

Moreover, greater density usually comes at the expense of more impervious cover, which contributes to flooding. Despite several attempts to minimize the growth of impervious cover, the Planning Commission has not studied what the aggregate impact could be.

City Council will consider approval of the recommendations on Wednesday, 6/21/23. This Planning Commission website explains how you can sign up to speak.

ReduceFlooding.com recommends that City Council does NOT approve “Livable Places” recommendations until any potential impact on flooding is known and residents can decide whether the potential increased risk is worth any benefits developers may gain.

Proposed Changes

Specifically, ordinance changes to Chapters 42 and 26 of the City Code would allow:

  • Second Dwelling Unit: Lets this housing type be larger with parking based on the unit size. Think of apartments over garages or small backyard homes. Only available where deed restrictions do not prohibit their construction. 
  • Multi-Unit Residential: Brings back this affordable housing type which is small scale 3–8-unit apartments with a height restriction to fit better within neighborhoods.
  • Courtyard Style Development: Promotes this housing type where lots are located around a common courtyard, and do not require street frontage. The proposal includes green space requirement per lot, parking could be separate from the units and height restriction so that homes are at neighborhood scale.
  • Narrow Lot Development: Incentivizes this housing type where lots take rear access or shared access to reduce the number of times pedestrians come in potential conflict with automobiles. In addition, these regulations help the redevelopment be more walkable by reducing the driveway widths and preventing vehicles from hanging into the sidewalk.
  • Market Based Parking: For all the four residential development types mentioned above, the proposal is to allow market-based parking in proximity where other transportation options exist and make housing affordable. This means the City will not have a minimum parking requirement, and the property owner can provide parking based on market needs.

Impervious-Cover Impact Unknown

The recommended changes encourage greater density by allowing subdivision of lots. That generally means more rooftops and concrete per acre. Rooftops and concrete are called impervious cover because they do not let stormwater soak into the ground.

Here are the proposed changes to ordinances. They mention impervious cover only once – in the context of courtyard development. And that mention says, courtyards “may be a mix of impervious or pervious material…” They specify no percentages.

Neither do they mention pier-and-beam foundations that could elevate new buildings above flood risk without reducing floodplain storage. Any reduction in the volume of floodplain storage could affect the flood risk of existing homes.

Several department spokespeople pointed out, however, that any development would have a 65% cap on impervious cover. Above that, developers would have to build stormwater detention basins. But the wording of that requirement is reportedly being reconsidered at this time by the Public Works Department.

The Planning Commission did not conduct a comprehensive engineering study to estimate any increase or decrease in impervious cover associated with the recommended changes. That raises the question: 

Will impervious cover increase, decrease or stay the same? 

The City knows how much impervious cover we have now because the City charges us a Drainage Fee for it. And even though the City cannot predict which types of housing developers will want to build and in what quantities, it could easily calculate the increase or decrease for representative scenarios and make guesstimates.

But we may not know a definitive answer for decades until the impact of these recommendations become visible on the ground or during the next large flood.

Fortunately, the Planning Commission has recommended several changes that may help offset increases in density. They include, but are not limited to:

  • Elimination of some mandatory parking requirements in neighborhoods where car ownership is low and access to public transportation is high. 
  • Making greater use of alleys to preserve green space in public right of way at the front of lots.
  • Allowing shared driveways that are narrower than two individual driveways.

Density, Impervious Cover and Drainage Fees

Back in 2010, the City taught us that impervious cover was bad. The City even created a fee to discourage it called the Drainage Fee. Since then, the City has collected 3.2 cents per square foot of impervious surface from each home and business owner with curb and gutter drainage in the City. Those with street ditches pay a slightly lower rate. The total collected to date is reportedly approaching $1.3 billion. 

Aerial Photo taken in 2022 north of Houston’s downtown.

The proposed changes could make neighborhoods like the one above even denser and tax the capacity of storm sewers/roadside ditches even more. Many of the ditches are already blocked and in serious need of restoration.

street flooding
Adding more homes per acre in areas with drainage that’s already poor could increase flood risk for existing residents.

More Resources

To learn more about the Planning Commission’s Livable Places initiative and what the Commission believes to be the benefits, visit these resources.

Livable Places Housing Recommendations FAQ 6-16-2023
Proposed Draft Ordinances (C42 and C26)
Planning Commission changes as part of the action.
Proposed Market-Based Parking map for Housing Recommendations
Summary of Amendments Flyer in English or Spanish *Updated
Streetscape exhibit for small lots *Updated
Letters received about Housing Amendments *Updated
Comments matrix.

Livable Places does have the potential to provide some benefits to some market segments. So to make sure we get this right, I encourage comment from members of the planning commission, local governments, affected citizens, and flood experts. To submit a guest editorial, reach out to me through the Contact page of this website.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/16/2023

2117 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Livable Places Initiative Would Create Higher Density in Flood-Prone Areas

First in a series on the Houston Planning Commission’s Livable Places Initiative, and updated on 6/18/2023

On 6/8/23, the City of Houston Planning Commission approved an initiative called Livable Places that it has worked on since early 2020.

Goals include creating a more affordable, walkable and equitable City.

Planning Commission Website

All laudable goals! However, the goals do not include reducing flood risk. Both the City and Harris County agreed to do that after Hurricane Harvey.

But the changes recommended in the Livable Places initiative could actually put more people in harm’s way during the next big flood.

Encouraging Higher Density in Flood-Prone Areas

They would do that by encouraging more housing density – and potentially more impervious cover – in neighborhoods already prone to flooding.

While regulation changes would apply to the whole city, they would primarily increase housing density in “public-transit-rich” areas inside the Beltway. There, the new regs would even let developers avoid building parking so they could increase housing density more.

Compare the three maps below. The first shows flood damage in all storms from 1999 to the month before Hurricane Harvey.

From a 2018 Rebuild Houston presentation. Note the preponderance of damage inside the Beltway.

The second shows damage during Hurricane Harvey.

From 2019 HCFCD Federal Briefing. Again, note the preponderance of damage inside the Beltway.

Compare those maps to this one created by the Planning Department for the Livable Places Initiative. It shows transit-rich areas where parking requirements would be optional for developers, allowing even more housing density – inside the Beltway.

Screen capture from the Livable Places presentation to the Planning Commission on 6/8/23.

Preamble to City Council Resolution Clarifies Targeted Area

If that weren’t clear enough, the preamble to the ordinance changes proposed by the planning department clarifies the purpose(s) of the new regulations. Among other things, they strive to:

  • Encourage more compact development patterns and small-scale, multi-unit housing options
  • Make better use of land closer to existing infrastructure
  • Promote responsible, affordable housing development “within the inner city.”

The graphic below shows the housing types that Livable Places will encourage. Each involves putting more people on any given lot, acre, or square mile.

Screen capture from presentation to Planning Commission on 6/8/23

In summary, the Planning Commission hopes to increase density in areas with the worst history of flooding in Harris County – in the name of equity. And they do that even as Harris County struggles to mitigate flooding in those same areas – also in the name of equity.

My head is spinning. Where is Daniel Webster when you need him!

Learn More During “Livable-Places” Week

The City Council still needs to adopt these regulations before they become effective. The Planning Commission hopes to bring them before Council later this month or early next. Before then, I will cover:

  • More details of the plan and attempts to offset increases in impervious cover
  • The unknown, cumulative impact of recommended changes on impervious cover
  • The City’s Drainage Fee which penalizes impervious cover by increasing residents water bills
  • Whether proposed changes will really make housing more affordable
  • Migration patterns within the city and region, and the demographic changes affecting them.

Livable Places does have the potential to provide some benefits to some market segments. So to make sure we get this right, I encourage comment from members of the planning commission, local governments, affected citizens, and flood experts. To submit a guest editorial, reach out to me through the Contact page of this website.

Posted by Bob Rehak 6/13/2023 and updated on 6/16/23 with minor changes to the approved regulations.

2114 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Flood Damage To Tree Lane Bridge Over Ben’s Branch Accelerates

Since I last reported on damage to the Tree Lane Bridge over Ben’s Branch in January, the situation has worsened considerably.

  • Concrete reinforcements under and on both sides of the bridge have collapsed from undercutting, erosion and jetting.
  • The stream has downcut, exposing pipelines.
  • Jetting has carved out a cavernous area south of the bridge.
  • Erosion has reached within a few feet of a utility corridor.
  • Storm sewer outfalls have been exposed, undercut and punctured by massive slabs of displaced concrete.
  • Bridge supports, once protected by sidewalls, have been exposed to more erosion.

Pictures Taken on 6/12/23 Show Extent of Damage

The bridge will probably not collapse in the next big rain. However, the cumulative damage to all these components underscores the need for urgent repair. It also underscores the need for mitigation to reduce the jetting that caused the damage.

Looking at downstream eastern side of Tree Lane bridge
Looking NE at downstream, eastern side of Tree Lane bridge
Wider shot from same position reveals two exposed pipelines.
Looking upstream under Tree Lane Bridge. Downcutting under bridge threatens western wall also.
Looking upstream under Tree Lane Bridge. Note how downcutting threatens western (left) wall also.
Giant slabs of concrete have destroyed outfall.
Giant slabs of concrete have destroyed outfall.
AS
Erosion downstream of the Tree Lane bridge now is within approximately ten feet of a utility corridor.

Damage Accelerating, Repaired Just Three Years Ago

The city repaired the Tree Lane Bridge in March of 2020. Compare this post to see how it looked then. It’s amazing how much damage could be done in three years to a bridge that weathered multiple hurricanes and tropical storms for more than 50 years.

That’s a testament to insufficiently mitigated development upstream that sends ever greater volumes of water downstream – more than the opening under the bridge was designed for.

For a description of how jetting works, check this post. Basically, water backs up behind the bridge, putting greater pressure on the water flowing under the bridge.

Let’s hope the City can repair the Tree Lane Bridge again before school starts in the fall. The bridge borders Bear Branch Elementary School where 638 students attend classes.

Please check bridges near you and report any damage.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/12/2023

2113 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Check This Website Before Heading to the Beach

Stormwater can cause more than flooding. For all those headed to the beach this summer, the Texas General Land Office (GLO) offers a useful website that monitors water quality and safety. It’s called Texas Beach Watch.

About Beach Watch

The program tests bacteria levels at beaches along the coast and Galveston Bay. It measures Enterococcus bacteria (fecal indicator bacteria) levels every week from March through October and every other week during the rest of the year.

Why Enterococcus Matters

So what is Enterococcus and where does it come from?

Enterococcus indicates the presence of fecal matter. And according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, sources include stormwater runoff plus:

  • Wastewater treatment plant effluent
  • Leaking septic systems
  • Sewage discharged or dumped from recreational boats
  • Domestic animal and wildlife waste
  • Improper land application of manure or sewage
  • Runoff from manure storage areas
  • Pastures
  • Rangelands
  • Feedlots.

EPA also lists natural, non-fecal sources of fecal-indicator bacteria. They include:

  • Plants
  • Sand
  • Soil 
  • Sediments.

The latter contribute to a certain background level in ambient waters and vary based on local environmental and meteorological conditions.

Health and Recreation Consequences

The EPA says such pathogens can sicken swimmers and others who use rivers and streams for recreation or eat raw shellfish or fish. Other potential health effects can include diseases of the skin, eyes, ears and respiratory tract.

The EPA also says that enterococci are typically not considered harmful to humans, but their presence may indicate the presence of other disease-causing agents such as viruses, bacteria, and protozoa.

Overabundance of fecal bacteria in the water can cause beach closures, swimming and boating bans and closures of fishing and shellfishing areas. 

Three Warning Levels and Today’s Readings

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recommended single sample maximum criterion for Enterococcus bacteria is 104 colony forming units (CFU) per 100 ml. When the counts are above this level, swimming is not recommended.

The GLO rates bacteria levels at beaches as follows:

Low Low 
Bacteria counts less than 35 cfu/100 ml.

Medium Medium 
Bacteria counts are between 35 and 104 cfu/100 ml.

High High 
Bacteria counts are greater than 104 cfu/100 ml. An advisory for this beach is recommended.

Here’s what the coast looked like along the coast this morning.

Galveston looked pretty safe with the exception of two cautions.
Bolivar had more cautions and an advisory.

For More Information,

For more information, please review the health risks associated with swimming in waters with high Entercoccus counts in Pathogens & Pathogen Indicators.

If you have a favorite beach, the GLO’s TexasBeachWatch.com website lets you sign up for alerts.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/10/2023 based on information from the GLO and EPA

2111 Days since Hurricane Harvey