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ChatGPT Advice on Most Effective Techniques for Flood Control

First in a three-part series about ChatGPT and Flood Knowledge

The flood of articles about ChatGPT recently prompted me to wonder whether the artificial intelligence application could accurately answer questions about flooding. So I set up an account, started asking questions, and checked the answers with experts. The responses revealed patterns of strengths and weaknesses.

The more general the questions, the better the answers.
The more specific the questions, the more it missed.
In one test, it seriously missed an answer and gave misleading advice.
In another, it omitted an important component of the answer.
Sometimes I got no responses at all.

Despite ChatGPT’s considerable strengths, my test raised a red “caution flag” on this newly minted intellectual booster rocket. In my opinion, the biggest danger in using it is this.

The answers to questions seem so competent, an unsuspecting user may not question them.

My advice:

Use it, but also use it with caution.
Understand the limitations.
Drill down into topics and cross check the answers with other sources.

Test Run and Validation

I first asked ChatGPT, “What are the most effective techniques for flood control?” I sent the results to an industry leading hydrologist who specializes in flood control and the leaders of two leading conservation groups in the Houston area.

I asked them to grade the answer on a scale of A through F and to answer two simple questions. Was the ChatGPT response accurate? And did it omit anything important?

ChatGPT Response to Test Question

Below are my question and the ChatGPT response reproduced verbatim:

Q: “What are the most effective techniques for flood control?”

A: “Flood control involves a combination of structural and non-structural techniques to minimize the impact of flooding. Here are some of the most effective techniques used for flood control:

Dams and Reservoirs: Constructing dams and reservoirs helps regulate the flow of water in rivers and store excess water during heavy rainfall. This reduces downstream flood risk by controlling the release of water.
Levees and Flood Walls: Building levees and flood walls along riverbanks and coastlines can provide physical barriers to prevent floodwaters from reaching populated areas. These structures are designed to withstand the pressure of water and redirect it away from vulnerable regions.
Channelization: Modifying and straightening river channels can increase their capacity and improve the flow of water, reducing the risk of overflow. This technique involves reshaping riverbanks, removing obstacles, and dredging to deepen the channel.
Floodplain Zoning: Implementing land-use planning measures such as floodplain zoning helps prevent development in high-risk areas. By restricting construction and promoting open spaces or green infrastructure, floodwater can be absorbed or diverted, reducing damage to buildings and infrastructure.
Stormwater Management: Effective stormwater management systems capture and store rainwater, reducing the volume of water entering rivers and drainage systems during storms. Techniques include the use of retention ponds, green roofs, permeable pavements, and sustainable drainage systems (SUDS).
Wetland Restoration: Wetlands act as natural buffers against flooding, absorbing and storing excess water. Restoring and preserving wetlands can help regulate water flow, reduce flood peaks, and provide habitats for wildlife.
River Embankments and Terracing: Strengthening riverbanks through embankments and terracing helps contain floodwaters within the river channel. These techniques can reduce erosion and prevent water from spreading onto surrounding floodplains.
Urban Drainage Systems: Well-designed urban drainage systems, including storm sewers, culverts, and retention basins, efficiently collect and transport stormwater away from urban areas. Proper maintenance of these systems is crucial to prevent blockages and ensure effective flood control.
Early Warning Systems: Implementing advanced monitoring and early warning systems allows for timely dissemination of flood alerts to at-risk communities. This gives people more time to evacuate or take necessary precautions to protect life and property.
Public Awareness and Education: Raising public awareness about flood risks, safety procedures, and emergency response plans can significantly reduce the impact of floods. Educating communities on flood preparedness, including evacuation routes and the importance of insurance coverage, helps people respond effectively during flood events.

It’s worth noting that the most effective flood control strategies often involve a combination of these techniques, tailored to the specific characteristics and challenges of the area at risk. Additionally, climate change adaptation measures and sustainable water management practices play a crucial role in mitigating the long-term effects of flooding.”

Evaluation of Response by Experts

Hydrologist/flood expert: “That response is pretty good. It really depends on the audience. I would give it a B+ because it is thorough, but very general. Obviously, it doesn’t take into account the location, development, topography, etc., so that is why it can’t ever give an “A+” answer.”

Environmentalist #1: “I would give this an A. It’s basic, but it’s pretty comprehensive. Especially items 5,6,7, which are not always considered as common strategies employed for flood mitigation.”

Environmentalist #2: “I would give it an A- or B+. It hit many of the green strategies. But it did not seem to talk about preservation of natural ecosystems, like forests, floodplains, beaches, and grasslands. Nor did it discuss the use of hybrid solutions that incorporate engineered features with natural materials that mimic the functioning of natural ecosystems. I would also add another item to the list, ‘Use of native vegetation in residential and commercial areas to increase infiltration.'”

My Impression

I concluded ChatGPT is a research tool like any other.

Strengths

It’s definitely faster than search engines that would require you to explore dozens of links in order to compile a list like the one above.

It even composes well-formed summaries/answers for you in simple, easy-to-understand language.

It feels as though you are conversing with a knowledgeable, patient teacher.

It’s a great jumping-off point to start intellectual exploration.

If this were an “Intro to…” or “Principles of…” course, I would give it an A- or B+. It gives good, comprehensive, well-formed answers. The grammar is impressive for something computer generated.

Weaknesses

But that last strength can inspire a dangerous overconfidence that will become more apparent in the next two posts.

Also, it never quantified “most effective,” but in fairness, the last paragraph of the response (“worth noting”) explains why that would be problematic.

Down the Rabbit Holes

Armed with my expert’s evaluations, I started down some rabbit holes that revealed more strengths, weaknesses, limitations and an outright error on different aspects of flood control.

But more on those in the next two posts. One involves construction best management practices. Another will focus on the capabilities of a government agency, the Texas General Land Office.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/27/2023

2097 days since Hurricane Harvey

Jace Houston Resigns as SJRA General Manager Under Pressure from Subsidence Deniers

Jace Houston, the San Jacinto River Authority’s (SJRA) General Manager and point person on subsidence issues, resigned yesterday, 5/25/23, to avert a political war with Montgomery County subsidence deniers that could have taken down the entire SJRA board.

Houston had been with the SJRA for 16 years after spending 10 years with the Harris-Galveston Subsidence District. While at the SJRA, the lawyer/engineer helped put together a Groundwater Reduction Plan that included 80 municipalities and municipal utility districts (MUDs) across Montgomery County. He also helped the SJRA construct a surface-water treatment plant on Lake Conroe.

Goals of Effort to Preserve Groundwater

The half-billion dollar plant supplies surface water to the major population centers in Montgomery County, such as Conroe, The Woodlands and Oak Ridge North. Converting the population centers to surface water preserved groundwater for less populated and rural areas where water pipelines become uneconomical.

When the plant came online in 2015, it also virtually neutralized subsidence (see below).

The groundwater preservation effort proved effective at eliminating subsidence. It also helped water utilities avoid major costs associated with declining aquifer levels.

What costs? When water levels in wells drop, suppliers must move pumps deeper and use more electricity to pump water to the surface. In extreme cases, utilities may not be able to get water to the surface at all. Then they must drill new wells, often into deeper aquifers at hefty costs.

Declining well levels are especially worrisome in drought years when/where no alternative sources of water are available. Lack of water can limit population and economic growth as well as agricultural production.

However, preserving groundwater came at a cost. All members of the plan paid a fee to help pay for the surface water treatment plant even if they didn’t buy water from it. The need for such a plan became apparent more than 20 years ago, long before Houston joined the SJRA.

Need to Use Less Groundwater Validated by Legislature, But…

The Texas Leglislature validated the need to use less groundwater when it created the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District (LSGCD) in 2001.

But in recent years, all that was forgotten. The LSGCD board denied subsidence was a problem and advocated unlimited groundwater pumping as a way to lower water costs.

In the meantime, subsidence has returned. So have water well declines.

As you can see below, since the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District began moving to deregulate groundwater usage, well levels have dropped significantly across the county, setting up a day of reckoning in the future.

*Water-level changes in representative area wells. Source: Harris-Galveston Subsidence District 2022 Annual Groundwater Report.*

A Shot Across the Bow of the Board

Undeterred by these signals, the City of Conroe and the LSGCD board took their fight to the state legislature. They got State Representative Will Metcalf of Conroe to propose an amendment to the SJRA Sunset Review Bill that would replace Jace Houston. The amendment passed and emboldened Metcalf, Conroe and the LSGCD.

The amended bill then went to the Senate Water, Agricultural and Rural Affairs Committee where the Conroe/LSGCD contingent testified again. But Senator Charles Perry, the committee chair, talked his fellow members out of adopting their proposals.

However, during the committee debate, Senator Lois Kolkorst, who represents Magnolia, fired a shot across the bow of the SJRA. She suggested making SJRA board-member terms one year.

That would have been disastrous, according to one seasoned SJRA board member, “It takes a year just to learn the job,” he said.

After defeat of all suggested amendments in Perry’s committee, it didn’t take long for back-channel rumors to mushroom. A whisper campaign suggested that sympathetic senator(s) might offer the Metcalf amendment or a one-year board amendment when the bill came up for a vote on the Senate floor.

Within days, the SJRA called a special board meeting to discuss Houston’s employment. While Houston reportedly had many supporters on the SJRA Board, he ultimately chose to resign and avoid a political battle royal that could have damaged the SJRA.

Board Accepts Houston’s Resignation

An article in Community Impact quoted SJRA Board President Ronald Anderson as saying: “At today’s meeting, the SJRA board of directors received and reluctantly accepted a resignation letter from our general manager, Jace Houston. Jace has served with honor and distinction for almost 16 years and has made the SJRA one of the most respected water agencies in the state of Texas.”

Anderson continued, “Even through these recent circumstances involving the legislature, Jace has once again placed the best interests of our organization and customers above his own, and the board wishes him the best in his future endeavors, which we know will be marked by continued success.”

Houston will remain at the SJRA until June 30th. But even on his way out the door, he seems less concerned about his own future than Montgomery County’s water future.

Impact of LSGCD on Water Future of MoCo and More

When asked about the impact of the LSGCD moves, Houston predicted, “They’re not going to regulate the aquifers. They’re going to allow pumpage to increase significantly.”

Houston added, “A lot of great work has been done to put a program together that allows Montgomery County to be able to afford the future water supplies it needs. And all of that is at risk. This just puts the county’s future at risk. They don’t understand the science. LSGCD is just dead wrong on the science.”

Because aquifers flow toward the coast, depleting groundwater in Montgomery County affects Harris and Galveston communities as well. But Metcalf and the LSGCD board never seemed to consider the impact on neighboring counties even though Metcalf’s district represents only about one thirtieth of the population in the San Jacinto watershed.

Because of differential subsidence, the impact of unlimited groundwater pumping in southern Montgomery County could actually tilt Lake Houston toward the north. That’s because the Kingwood/Porter area would subside more than the Lake Houston Dam by about two feet. And that could put many homes near floodplains into floodplains.

*Projected subsidence in the northern Lake Houston Area could be 3.25 feet.*

subsidence in Harris County — *Meanwhile, projected subsidence at the Lake Houston Dam would only be 1.25 feet.*

The US Geological Survey (USGS) should release new, updated models later this year that could affect the rates shown approve (plus or minus).

In the meantime, for anyone who doubts the relationship between water-well declines and subsidence, USGS has published a 432-page scientific report on the subject based on 120 years of data from northeast Texas aquifers.

Houston’s resignation seems to have averted a San Jacinto showdown for now. But some fear this fight isn’t over yet. Stay tuned for the next exciting episode of “As the Swamp Sinks.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/26/2023

2096 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Last-Minute Funding Breathes New Life into Lake Houston Gates Project

The project to install more flood gates on the Lake Houston Dam has resulted in more nail-biting than a Steven Spielberg movie. Perhaps no project inspired more hope among flood-weary home- and business owners in the San Jacinto watershed. Importance is high, but the costs turned out far higher than expected and dollars proved hard to come by.

This morning, however, Dr. Greg Bonnen, chair of the House Appropriations Committee filed a rider to this year’s appropriations bill that will likely get the job done. The rider contains two provisions that affect funding for the gates.

Sec. 17.38 (a)(1) on page IX-22 contains $50 million for improvements to the Lake Houston Dam.
Sec. 17.38 (b)(1)(2)(3) on page IX-23 contains a provision that lets unexpended balances from previous grants be redeployed, so they can be spent on EITHER gates, a sediment capture pilot project, or sediment removal.

*Lake Houston has four small floodgates only capable of releasing 1/15 the rate of Lake Conroe’s gates. New gates would go in the earthen embankment to the right of the old gates and spillway.*

Funding Now Close to Expected Costs

According to Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin, Black & Veatch Engineering estimates the cost of an 11-gate structure to be between $125 and $225 million.

Balancing that on the income side of the ledger are:

The remaining Federal funds of the $50 million provided by FEMA early on for engineering, environmental surveys, permits and construction. So far the City has reportedly spent about $5 million on upfront work.
An $8 million earmark by US Congressman Dan Crenshaw.
$20 million in County funds allocated in the 2018 Flood Bond (Project CI-61).
$11 million from the City of Houston in capital-improvement-project (CIP) funds.
The possibility of additional CIP funds from this year’s budget.
$50 million from 17.38 (a)(1) above
Up to another $50 million in State funds left over from a TWDB 2021 allocation in 17.38 (b)(1)(2)(3)
Redeployment of some FEMA dredging funds left over from the Mouth Bar Project.

That puts available funding somewhere north of $170 million. Martin says that should be enough to lock in the original FEMA funding and get the project started.

Redeployment of Funds Important

Congressman Crenshaw’s office emphasized that even though some FEMA money will be redeployed from dredging the mouth bar, additional FEMA funds from another FEMA grant will let dredging around the lake continue.

Re: 17.38 (b) above (that second bucket of $50 million in funding from the state) Martin points out that it includes two other important projects: dredging and the sediment trap pilot study. However:

The pilot study should not be very expensive and has no firm deadline.
Congressman Dan Crenshaw has helped secure additional funding for dredging from a second FEMA grant.

Finally, Martin points out that Black & Veatch is examining options to scale back the number of gates in case construction costs exceed funding if something falls through.

Enough Funding Committed to Move Forward with Confidence

While some uncertainty remains, Martin says the key point is that enough money has now been committed to move forward with confidence. This is a huge improvement over where the project stood just 8 days ago when concerned residents launched a call-in campaign to influential senators and representatives.

Lake Houston Area residents placed thousands of calls to save the project. Two days later, funding was placed in Bonnen’s rider. Martin thanks “ALL who placed phone calls, sent text messages and emailed state officials in support of our gates project.”

Thank you’s also go to all those who played key roles in this up-against-the-center-field wall catch:

State Senator Brandon Creighton
State Representative Charles Cunningham
Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick
State Representative Armando Walle
State Senator Joan Huffman
House Speaker Dade Phelan
House Appropriations Chairman Greg Bonnen
Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner
US Representative Dan Crenshaw and Kaaren Cambio, his District Director

Several others deserve special thanks:

Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin worked the phones relentlessly and made countless trips to Austin to raise awareness of the project and coordinate the area’s efforts.
City of Houston Chief Recovery Officer Stephen Costello convinced FEMA to include social benefits in the cost/benefit ratio (CBR). That raised the CBR to 3.5, making it the highest-rated project in the State of Texas.
City of Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner, who called in some favors among Austin influentials to make the project happen.
Former State Representative Dan Huberty and Ben Melson, a CoH lobbyist, lobbied extensively over the last few months, working with Martin, Costello and Bill Kelly, the City’s Director of Government Affairs.

Reason More Gates Needed

Additional gates will let the City lower lake water faster as large storms approach, thus reducing flood peaks both upstream and down. That will, in turn, reduce flood risk for thousands of homeowners and businesses, not to mention all the schools that flooded.

But lowering the lake level carries some risk. If it takes too long to lower the lake, storms can veer away before they arrive, wasting water. Narrowing the window between release and the storm’s arrival, raises certainty that the storm will refill the lake.

More gates will also help balance releases from Lake Conroe with those from Lake Houston.

Next Steps

It ain’t over till it’s over. But even though only days are left in this session, Chairman Bonnen’s office said, “The legislature has never failed to pass an appropriations bill.”

More news as the project evolves.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/25/2023

2095 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Hidalgo Accuses Legislature, Governor of “Murder Plot” against 5 Million Harris County Residents

Of all the things Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo could have picked on in Austin this year, she chose to get hysterical over a bill that would return the control of Harris County elections to … ta da … two elected African-American Democrats!

Hidalgo is complaining bitterly about SB 1750, a bill passed by both the House and the Senate – now on its way to the Governor’s desk and likening it to a “murder plot.”

She made her comments in this 7 minute and 40 second YouTube Video. And she embellishes them in this second video lasting more than 17 minutes.

Investigative reporter Wayne Dolcefino produced his own video based on Hidalgo’s comments.

In addition to SB 1750, Hidalgo also complains about:

SB 1933, a bill that would give the state the right to investigate election administration problems.
SB 1039, a bill designed to guarantee explanations for election irregularities – without concerned citizens having to challenge the entire election.
SB 1993, a bill allowing new elections if enough polling places run out of ballots long enough. (However, it has no chance of passing in this session.)

I won’t try to discuss every statement made in Hidalgo’s rambling rants. You can watch the videos and form your own opinions. I will, however, point out some of Hidalgo’s more exaggerated claims.

*County Judge Lina Hidalgo accusing Legislature and Governor of plot to murder 5 million people*

Hidalgo Likens System that Elected Her to Murder

SB 1750 would take the next election out of the hands of an administrator appointed by Judge Hidalgo, Commissioner Rodney Ellis and Commissioner Adrian Garcia. It would restore the previous system run by the County Clerk and Tax Assessor-Collector. By the way, that’s the same system that elected Hidalgo over the previous County Judge, Ed Emmett.

Yet Hidalgo says she “can’t think of something more anti-democratic” than putting elections in the hands of elected officials rather than someone appointed by her.

She also claims Austin is “declaring war on Harris County.” And that legislators and the governor are engaged in a “murder plot” against every resident of Harris County. Yep, all 5 million of them.

As if that’s not enough…

Hidalgo calls the attempted murder of 5 million people “not normal.”

Then the master of understatement accuses the Legislature and Governor of “Orwellian double-speak” and “attacking democratic ideals.”

She blasts election audits, claims they are an abuse of the system, subvert her authority, and disenfranchise millions of voters “whose voices will be silenced.” After they destroy Harris County’s economy.

“They’re coming after us,” she says. She doesn’t specify whether “they” includes people with gavels or straight jackets.

Excuse me, Judge. But how is returning local elections to locally elected Democrats attacking democratic ideals? Who’s guilty of the Orwellian double speak?

Oh wait! You didn’t personally appoint the elected Democrats! The People did. Is that why it’s “anti-democratic?”

Hidalgo’s Selective Perception

Hidalgo still hasn’t complied with lawful Texas Public Information Act requests relating to the last election by turning over the emails concerning voting problems and voting machine maintenance records.

Nor in her rants did she remind people how her previous election administrator lost 10,000 votes.

But Hidalgo did double down on the “murder plot” accusation. She went on to say the Legislature’s common sense measures were tantamount to “a murder-suicide pact” that would take down Texas and every other state.

Of course, maybe we should cut her some slack. After all, Hidalgo is under pressure. She also informed us that she expects the County’s District Attorney, Kim Ogg (another Democrat), to hand down a criminal indictment against her soon in the $11 million Elevate Strategies scandal. An entire grand jury deliberated that issue for five and a half months. But that might have been a Democrat plot by a Republican Governor, too.

Hidalgo’s Other Gripes

Hidalgo claims SB 1750, SB 1933 and SB 1093 amount to “election suppression,” a “takeover” by the state, and “a power grab.” She also says that she’s appealing to the Federal government for help.

Judging by Hidalgo’s hysteria, she seems to equate these bills with genocide and the end of Western civilization. She also seems to believe that her power should remain absolute and beyond question.

That might explain why her administration has a problem retaining people. If Cliff Tatum, the election administrator, leaves as a result of SB 1750, that will mean 24 departments in Harris County have had at least 48 heads under Judge Hidalgo in a little more than four years. And many of the current heads have “interim” in their titles.

I have to compliment Judge Hidalgo on one thing, though. She has more imagination than Shakespeare, Orwell, and Machiavelli put together. I’m sure she would have inspired them to new heights.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/24/2023

2094 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Harris County Precinct 3 Rethinking Edgewater Park

There’s been a lot of water under the I-69 bridge since Harris County acquired the old privately owned Edgewater Park on the San Jacinto West Fork almost five years ago.

The county intended to start construction of a new bigger, better, public park with more amenities in 2019. The idea: turn floodway and floodplain land into an asset that would improve the community without exacerbating flooding.

Reportedly, however, pushback from Forest Cove residents over rerouting parts of Hamblen Road delayed the project. Then the City of Houston pushed back, too, on permitting for some buildings. Then came redistricting wars, budget battles, and a public-input session to determine what the community wants in Edgewater Park. Let’s first look at some pictures of the park and then review the new features.

Pictures Taken 5/23/23

I took the pictures below today. Edgewater Park will cover most of the land you see in the picture below between the river and that concrete patch in the upper middle (Laurel Springs RV Resort).

*Looking NNE across San Jacinto West Fork toward Precinct 3 Edgewater Park.*

*Looking NW. Hamblen Road cuts diagonally left to right through center of frame. Laurel Springs Lane cuts north (on right).*

*Looking East downstream. West Fork Greenway will cut under bridge in the upper right.*

*Looking east from approximately Hamblen and Laurel Springs Lane. West Fork Greenway will snake through this area on its way to 59 bridge.*

*Looking SE. West Fork Greenway will ramp up to old truss bridge to take hikers and bikers across river.* *Note how far south the river has shifted. Those double trusses used to be centered over the river.*

Looking West. West Fork Greenway will connect with Spring Creek Greenway that snakes through the Forest on the West Side of US59. The Spring Creek Greenway will take people most of the way to the Woodlands with a couple small breaks.

*Winter photo showing one* *of the beautiful cypress ponds north of Hamblen Road.*

rerouting of Hamblen road in original plan for Edgewater Park — *Original (now outdated) plans for Edgewater Park at Hamblen Road and Loop 494*

Elements of Plan B

Construction still hasn’t started and the County is rethinking its plans for the park. In the May 16 Commissioner Court meeting, commissioners approved Item 42 – funding to study Edgewater Park.

Eric Heppen, Precinct 3 Engineer says, “the study phase is just getting underway so there aren’t any bid specs at this time. But right now, we are looking at park components and materials that are more resilient and doing park improvements south of Hamblen Road only.”

Heppen adds, “In addition to a boat launch and parking lots there will be a small and large dog park, a playground, as well as both paved and unpaved trails. We are trying to build a park that will assist in serving the greater Kingwood area.”

“In addition we have been coordinating with he Houston Parks Board and connecting the Spring Creek Greenway into their trail network to enhance the overall trail system.”

“Our designer Quiddity has a landscape architect on its team. The architect has been tasked with adding plants that are native and will grow naturally to assist with natural mitigation efforts,” concluded Heppen.

Dog Park Fencing

The City of Houston requires dog parks to have fencing and Edgewater Park is in the City. Those who remember how logs collected in the railroad bridge supports next to the park during Harvey may remember how they contributed to catastrophic flooding.

Fencing can also collect debris swept downstream during floods. To prevent the fences from forming debris walls that make flooding worse, the City recommends a breakaway design. They attach the bottom of the chain-link fencing to steel poles with a steel ring. But they attach the top of the fencing to poles with plastic zip ties that break when pressure increases enough. That lets the fence flop down on the ground without being carried downstream.

You can see this ingenious system at the County’s Pundt Park along Spring Creek or in Buffalo Bayou Park downtown.

Types of Boats for Launch

Because dredging by the Army Corps stopped downstream of Edgewater Park, it will be difficult to launch larger boats with prop engines at Edgewater.

However, according to Heppen canoes and kayaks remain a possibility.

San Jacinto Greenway Link to Spring Creek Greenway

The Houston Parks Board is working with Harris County Precinct 3 to develop the West Fork Greenway and connect it to the Spring Creek Greenway. The map below shows the trail it will take from Woodland Hills Drive to the freeway.

Current extent. Trail will eventually continue west and cross over I-69/US59 via route shown in photos and first map above.

More on Edgewater as plans firm up. To see the master plan for Harris County Precinct 3 Parks, click here.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/23/2023

2093 Days since Hurricane Harvey

HCFCD Could Get $322 Million in Redeployed Funds from GLO

The Texas General Land Office has posted Amendment 12 to the Hurricane Harvey State Action Plan for public comment. Among the highlights: If approved, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) could get $322 million in reallocated funding from underperforming and completed programs for infrastructure projects that protect residences and businesses. The proposed amendment also includes additional changes.

Almost six years after Hurricane Harvey, the Texas General Land Office hopes to reallocate funding from programs with below-expected participation to programs showing greater-than-expected need.

The goal is to use all the money before unused funds must be returned to HUD in 2026.
Brittany Eck, GLO spokesperson

Looking north along Kingwood Diversion Ditch where hundreds of homes flooded during Harvey. The Kingwood Area Drainage Analysis rated widening this ditch as one of the two most important projects in the Kingwood area.

Where Extra HCFCD Money Comes From

Funds redirected to HCFCD include:

$30 million EACH (total $60 million) from the City of Houston and Harris County administered disaster recovery programs that failed to meet program contract benchmarks
$83.9 million from the GLO administered City of Houston Homeowner Assistance Program (HAP)
$178.13 million from the GLO administered Harris County HAP.

How Money Can Be Used

The GLO’s Homeowner Assistance Programs are projected to serve all eligible applicants in Harris County and City of Houston and the remaining funds are available to be redirected toward other needs.

The HCFCD program will provide disaster relief, long-term recovery, and flood and drainage improvement for local communities within Harris County impacted by Hurricane Harvey.

It will also protect assets that have since been repaired from Hurricane Harvey.

Each project must demonstrate how it will contribute to the long-term recovery and restoration of housing.

Other Reallocations

Amendment 12 ensures the $2.46 billion in CDBG-DR funds originally allocated to Harris County and City of Houston will continue to address unmet recovery needs within those jurisdictions.

Review the full text of Amendment 12 at https://recovery.texas.gov/public-notices/index.html.

Highlights include the following changes:

Harris County Administered Disaster Recovery Program total decreased to $887,334,984.
Homeowner Assistance Program increased to $49,524,866.
Homeowner Reimbursement Program decreased to $46,845,332.
Affordable Rental Program increased to $252,888,178.
Single Family New Construction Program decreased to $59,560,401.
Commercial Buyout Program increased to $18,294,906.
Method of Distribution (Local) increased to $129,934,907.
Competitive Request for Proposal Program decreased to $74,289,859.
City of Houston Administered Disaster Recovery Program total decreased to $664,157,590.
Multifamily Rental Program decreased to $370,855,752.
Small Rental Program increased to $13,424,373.
Homebuyer Assistance Program decreased to $18,016,785.
Public Service reduced to $17,851,394.
Economic Revitalization Program increased to $21,803,775.
Planning reduced to $22,217,000.
State Administered Disaster Recovery Program increased to $4,124,897,426.
Harris County Flood Control District Program created with $322,033,863.
Infrastructure Project Delivery increased to $29,585,390.
Harris County Homeowner Assistance Program decreased $108,214,125.
City of Houston Homeowner Assistance Program decreased to $481,698,301.
Homeowner Reimbursement Program (GLO program completed in January 2021, administered in the 48 eligible counties outside of Harris County and Houston) decreased to $102,951,722.
PREPS decreased to $22,587,890.70.

A spokesperson said that the GLO left enough money in the original programs to cover completion of work already started or approved.

How to Register Your Opinion

In my opinion, HCFCD sure could use the $322 million. Project overruns and inflation have eaten into the 2018 Flood Bond funds jeopardizing many projects at the bottom of the equity priority list.

To be considered, submit your comments to cdr@recovery.texas.gov by 5:00 p.m. on June 21, 2023.

Per federal requirements, the GLO must respond to public comments before the amendment can be sent to HUD for its 45-day final approval.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/22/2023 based on a press release by GLO

2092 Days since Hurricane Harvey

High School Graduation Speech Everyone Should Watch

This is a bit off-topic for a flood blog, but it may give inspiration to those who have been devastated by flooding and are fighting to make sure it doesn’t happen again.

Congressman Dan Crenshaw, a Navy Seal who lost an eye in Afghanistan, has posted a powerful 9-minute speech on YouTube that everyone should listen to. Even though he’s addressing graduating high school seniors, it’s a powerful reminder to older people of the core values that make us strong as individuals and a nation.

U.S. Representative Dan Crenshaw and some words of wisdom to live by.

Crenshaw begins by asking a simple question: Will we be up to the task of meeting the challenges that life throws at us?

Seven Lessons to Live By

He then discusses seven principles that prepare you to deal with the inevitable curve balls that life throws at you. I summarize them below:

Gain perspective. No matter what the challenge, others have had it harder.
Choose your heroes wisely. Emulate the people who have inspired you. Use them as your roadmap to success.
Shame is good. Not shaming others. But shame in the sense of holding yourself accountable to the person you want to be.
Forget about Plan B. This doesn’t mean you can’t change direction. Quitting means settling on a version of yourself that you know could be better.
Live with a sense of duty. Even when there may be no reward for doing the right thing, there’s no excuse not to do it.
Be still. Emotional reactions to hardships chip away at your ability to persevere. So, stay calm.
Embrace hardship. Find new ways to challenge yourself. Seek out hardship. It will make you better prepared to deal with those curve balls. Own your own destiny. Don’t let someone else dictate it for you.

An Ethos to Emulate

Crenshaw ends his speech with an allusion to the Navy Seal ethos. It’s not clear whether he’s quoting or adapting the Seal ethos at this point. But he sure is inspiring. Crenshaw ends with:

“I will not quit in face of danger or pain or self-doubt. I will not justify the easier path before me. I decide that all my actions, not just some, matter. Every small task is a contribution toward a higher purpose. Every day is undertaken with a sense of duty to become better than I was yesterday, even in the smallest of ways.”

“I seek out hardship. I do not run from pain, but embrace it. Because I derive strength from my suffering. I confront the inevitable trials of life with a smile. I plan to keep my head and be still when chaos overwhelms me. I will tell the story of my failures and hardships as a victor, not a victim.

“I will be grateful. Millions who have gone before me have suffered too much, fought too hard, and been blessed with far too little for me to squander this life. So I won’t.

“My purpose will be to protect and uphold the spirit of my great country, knowing that the values and freedoms we hold dear have been paid for with blood and can only be preserved by a strong people. So, I will do my part. I will live my life with fortitude.”

Words of wisdom. For everyone. Not just graduates.

Please take ten minutes to watch Congressman Crenshaw’s video with family and friends – before Memorial Day.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/21/2023

2091 Days since Hurricane Harvey

SJRA Loses Plea in Harvey “Takings” Case, Attacks Expert Witness, Files Another Appeal

Downstream property owners who claim their property was unconstitutionally “taken” by the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) during Harvey face more delays in their legal battle for compensation. A final outcome could still be years away.

Appeal After Appeal

After losing a motion to dismiss the case against it in 2020, SJRA appealed the ruling. But the appellate court also ruled against the SJRA and remanded the case back to the trial court for further proceedings.

So, the SJRA then entered a “plea to the jurisdiction.” Basically, a plea to the jurisdiction also seeks to dismiss a case. But it does that by challenging the court’s subject-matter jurisdiction, not by arguing the merits of the case.

On December 16, 2022, the trial court dismissed that, too. Now the SJRA is appealing the dismissal of its plea to the jurisdiction as well. SJRA uses a quirk of Texas law that allows government agencies to file appeals before a case is decided, thus dragging them out.

In the meantime, SJRA has been attacking the report of Dr. Phillip Bedient, a professor of engineering at Rice University, acting as an expert witness for the plaintiffs. Bedient’s report contains explosive allegations. If a jury finds them persuasive, it could be very costly to the SJRA and State of Texas, which backstops the SJRA financially.

SJRA’s delaying tactics and appeals suggest it fears Bedient’s testimony in front of a jury.

Seven Months Arguing over an Expert Witness

The chronology of 334 filings to date with the Harris County Clerk in this case (#1123430) reveals as much about the SJRA legal strategy as the contents of the SJRA filings themselves.

The latest dust-up over Bedient started in August 2022. SJRA claimed plaintiffs had not given them notice of Bedient’s expert testimony. Plaintiffs had given notice two years earlier.

Then it took almost two months to find a mutually agreeable time for Dr. Bedient’s deposition. During that time, the two sides argued about document production related to Bedient’s testimony. SRA allegedly requested the same documents more than once; plaintiff’s claim they produced them and were under no obligation to produce them twice.

On October 27, 2022, SJRA asked for a continuance until plaintiffs complied. Then, on October 31, plaintiffs again claimed they had complied and that SJRA was trying to manufacture a “discovery non-compliance dispute where none exists, presumably as a pretext to inject further unnecessary delay into this case.”

The next item in the court record (November 28, 2022) is SJRA’s objections to Bedient’s declaration. SJRA urged the judge to strike Bedient’s testimony. Plaintiffs objected to SJRA’s objections on 12/1/2022.

On 12/16/2022, the judge denied SJRA’s objections to Bedient’s testimony.

Then, on 1/4/2023, SJRA gave notice of its intent to file an interlocutory appeal on its plea to the jurisdiction. But it took a whole month for the SJRA to write a $3,067 check for the appeal.

Next, the SJRA requested the clerk to forward more records to the court of appeals. Three and a half months later, on 5/18/2023, the clerk finally filed the receipt for the additional records with the court of appeals.

Net: the SJRA has spent the last 7 months trying to keep Bedient’s testimony from being heard by a jury. One legal expert I talked to predicts that the SJRA will appeal its plea to the jurisdiction all the way to the Texas Supreme Court. And that plea revolves heavily around Bedient’s testimony.

Bombshells in Bedient Testimony

So, what did Bedient claim that could be so damaging? Read his entire testimony here. It contains a number of explosive allegations.

SJRA told the court it did not model a “no-Lake-Conroe-Dam Scenario.” But Bedient claims SJRA produced a “no dam” model during discovery. Oops!
The no-dam scenario showed:
- Lower flood peaks downstream than with the 79,000 cubic-feet-per-second SJRA actually released
- Flood peaks without a dam would have arrived slower and given people more time to evacuate.
SJRA originally designed a dam that would have served two purposes: flood control and water supply. It later modified the design before construction to be water supply only.
Flooding would have been less damaging had SJRA constructed the flood-control dam originally authorized.
SJRA justified its release of 79,000 CFS by saying peak inflow was 130,000 CFS. But Bedient says the 130,000 estimate was a short-lived spike from one small area, and that had the SJRA averaged the inflow across the entire watershed, it could have released far less water – 60,000 CFS – while still following its dam operating procedures.
A 1994 storm, during which SJRA released 33,000 cubic feet per second from Lake Conroe, badly flooded Kingwood and Humble. The SJRA later modified its gate operating procedures to avoid downstream flooding, but then released 79,000 CFS during Harvey.
Downstream flooding will likely recur as a result of the current design and operation of the Lake Conroe Dam.

Read more about these and Bedient’s other conclusions on pages 25-27. No wonder SJRA is fighting this testimony!

At the current rate, it could be years before this case goes to trial. Two-years ago – on 5/21/21, the judge issued a deadline for challenges to expert testimony; they were supposed to have been heard 18 months ago.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/20/23

2090 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Flood Control, Other Harris County Departments Reorganized…Again

Almost all Harris County departments have reorganized several times under County Judge Lina Hidalgo. By my estimate, the County’s 24 departments have had a total of 47 leaders during her administration.

Revolving Door for Department Heads

Eleven leaders have turned over in the last year including five in the last month. The:

Office of the County Administrator has a new interim Executive Director.
Economic Equity and Opportunity Office has a new interim Executive Director.
Commissioners Court Analysts’ Office has had two interim Executive Directors in a matter of weeks.
Universal Services Department has a new interim Executive Director (effective 5/16/23).

All those “interims” hint at more changes to come. But the changes go even further down several organizational ladders.

Deeper Changes Affect Whole Departments

The new interim leader at Universal Services, Sindhu Menon, began making organizational changes one day after her appointment two days ago. The full scope has yet to be seen. So far, she has reportedly addressed some departmental cultural changes and instituted an open door policy, which employees say is a refreshing change from her predecessor.

Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) also announced changes this week on 5/15/23. But the District’s head did not change. HCFCD changes are more structural than cultural.

Let’s dive into HCFCD’s latest reorg, look at how three previous reorgs under Hidalgo have affected operations, and then look at academic research on the impact of frequent reorganizations.

Latest Reorganization at Flood Control

County Commissioners appointed Dr. Tina Petersen, Executive Director of HCFCD, in January 2022. She is the department’s fourth leader under Hidalgo since Russ Poppe resigned in July 2021, less than 2 years ago. Peterson has reportedly been working on her department’s reorganization for approximately the last year.

Dr. Petersen says her goals include:

Enhancing operations
Reaffirming a commitment to administrative excellence
Efficient project delivery
Robust maintenance of infrastructure
Building dynamic partnerships.

Dr. Petersen did not respond to a question about whether the recent, dramatic drop in HCFCD spending had anything to do with the timing of her reorganization. However, all of the announced goals seem generally designed to counter the downward trend below on the right.

HCFCD Spending by Year since 2000 — *Source: FOIA Requests to HCFCD*.

After a steady increase following the passage of the flood bond in 2018, spending is now down to approximately the 2017 level (assuming Q1 rates hold). The decrease corresponds to the department’s frequent leadership changes.

HCFCD issued the new organizational chart below this week. It is designed to accomplish Dr. Petersen’s goals, which don’t specifically include speed.

HCFCD org chart 5/15/23 — *For a printable high-res PDF, click here.*

The new org chart shows:

The creation of several new positions at the “chief” level
A curious multi-level relationship between the chiefs
Multiple open positions
A reshuffling of responsibilities under the chiefs
“Demotions” for many departments caused by one and sometimes two additional layers of management inserted between Petersen and people actually doing the work.

Extra layers of management have the potential to slow things down even more rather than speed them up.

Changes Compared to Previous Structure

For instance, Communications used to report to the Chief of Staff and then Dr. Petersen. Now, it reports to a Public Information Officer and an External Affairs division head before the Chief of Staff. See org chart above in the second column from the left.

HCFCD issued no public announcement explaining the changes. So, without a previous org chart, it’s hard to tell exactly what changed unless you are familiar with certain departments (as I was with communications).

The demotion of Communications is regrettable in my opinion. Communications have already slowed and this will slow them further. Consider two examples: flood-bond and website updates.

Already HCFCD has abandoned monthly flood-bond spending updates in favor of twice-yearly.
Many of the District’s web pages refer to upcoming meetings that happened years ago!
“Active Projects” have not been updated on the District’s website in five months, even though many projects have changed.

*May 18th screen capture still shows active projects from January.*

But the challenges don’t stop there.

Political Interference Has Slowed Flood-Risk Reduction

Irrespective of Dr. Petersen’s talents, she has little ability to control changing priorities above her pay grade. Consider these two examples.

Five items on the 5/16/23 Commissioners Court Agenda (256, 259, 260, 263 and 264) involved $250 million in grants for sediment removal awarded nearly 2 years ago. The projects were just approved THIS week.

A quarter billion dollars has been parked on the sidelines for almost two years.

Certainly, finalizing construction plans and bidding the jobs consumed part of that time. The reorg might help with those things.

But according to three sources who asked to remain anonymous, political interference from commissioners also delayed the projects. Certain commissioners reportedly didn’t think enough of the FEMA money was being spent in their precincts.

Then there’s the $750 million in HUD/GLO Harvey mitigation funds awarded to Harris County – also two years ago. Instead of asking Flood Control how it recommended spending the money, Commissioners gave that task to the Community Services Department (CSD) which still hasn’t developed a definitive list of projects. Perhaps that’s because CSD has had six changes of leadership under Hidalgo. But CSD did cut HCFCD’s share of the pie by almost a quarter billion dollars.

The parked FEMA and HUD funds represented chances for Hidalgo to reduce flood risk by a $1 billion.

And let’s not forget the annual changes of priorities in the County’s Equity Prioritization Framework that force HCFCD staff to constantly re-evaluate more than a hundred projects.

Common Pitfalls of Reorganizations in General

Many valid reasons exist to reorganize. Likewise, reorganizations also entail many pitfalls.

Frequent reorgs can wreak havoc on an organization’s productivity by demoralizing employees.

A McKinsey survey in the Harvard Business Review (Getting Reorgs Right) found that:

80% of reorgs fail to deliver the hoped-for value in the time planned
10% cause real damage
Reorgs—and the uncertainty they provoke—can cause greater stress and anxiety than layoffs
In about 60% of cases, reorgs reduce productivity for a period of time.

An article in Forbes, titled “Curse of the Reorg,” details some of reasons why. It claims, “When companies announce a ‘reorg,’ internal reactions often skew more concerned than excited.”

Forbes continues, “Employees may not perceive this news as a positive change when they’re consumed by questions like: Another reorg, really? What will happen to my job? How will my team change? Will the projects I’ve been working on for months (even years) go away?”

Another article, on LinkedIn, documented how productivity dropped 50% after a reorg because of issues like those above.

Many academic articles suggest that it takes six to nine months to get past the productivity dips associated with reorganizations. One can only wonder whether the leadership changes and reorganizations throughout Harris County are happening faster than productivity can recover from them.

Only commissioners have the power to fix this problem. But service delivery doesn’t seem to be the highest priority of many of them.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/18/2023

2088 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Lack of Support in Legislature Putting Lake Houston Gates Project in Danger

Lack of support by the Texas State legislature is putting the project to add more floodgates to the Lake Houston dam in danger. Right now, money is not in the appropriations bill for the next two years. And if we have to wait for another two years, the initial $50 million committed by FEMA to the project will expire.

Call to Action

Please CALL the following elected representatives to voice your support for including $150 million for Lake Houston Floodgates in next year’s state budget. Also, get everyone you know to call.

At a minimum, call:

Governor Greg Abbott: (512) 463-2000
Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick: (512) 463-0001
Sen. Brandon Creighton: (512) 463-0104
Rep. Greg Bonnen: (512) 463-0729, Chair of House Appropriations
Sen. Joan Huffman: 512-463-0117, Chair of Senate Finance Committee
Sen. Robert Nichols: 512-463-0103

Other key decision makers:

Rep. Mary González – (512) 463-0613
Rep. Jacey Jetton – (512) 463-0710
Rep. Gary VanDeaver – (512) 463-0692
Rep. Armando Walle – (512) 463-0924
Sen. Lois Kolkhorst – (512) 463-0118
Sen. Charles Schwertner – (512) 463-0105

Remind Governor Abbott that when he toured Lake Houston after Harvey, he directed area leaders to develop long-range solutions that fixed the flooding problem. So…

Ask everyone to ensure funding for the Lake Houston Dam Improvement Project.

Here’s why.

Why We Need More Gates

After Hurricane Harvey, Lake Houston Area leaders identified adding more release capacity to the dam as one of the area’s top flood mitigation priorities. The inability to release water fast enough in advance of Harvey contributed to flooding 16,000 homes and 3,300 businesses.

If Lake Houston could release more water faster, authorities could wait until they were certain a storm would hit our area before releasing water. Releasing water would create more room for floodwater. But if the storm veers away and we release the water unnecessarily, it could cause a water shortage for 2 million people.

More gates would eliminate that risk/uncertainty.

Progress But Still No Permanent Solution

Rainfall this past week has demonstrated the problem once again. There was no tropical storm. No hurricane. No stalled front. Just widespread, sporadic downpours. Even with Lake Houston’s gates wide open and two feet of water cascading over the spillway, areas around the lake are still flooding.

River Grove Soccer Fields — *River Grove Park on 5/16/23*

It happens repeatedly.

January Flooding along west fork of San Jacinto — *The first flood this year occurred in January.*

And bigger storms can cause horrific damage.

*Hurricane Harvey destroyed Union Pacific Railroad Bridge that parallels US59 in the headwaters of Lake Houston. The damage disrupted rail traffic in an out of Houston for almost three years.*

San Jacinto West Fork at US59 during Harvey — *US59 Bridge and Humble business district underwater during Harvey*

Preliminary engineering studies showed that more gates could reduce flood levels significantly. FEMA appropriated $50 million to build them. But additional studies showed we need more gates that will quadruple the cost. We need $150 million more.

Support of Area Representatives and Organizations Not Enough

The state legislature is the only place to get that money before the FEMA grant expires. More than a dozen area organizations and elected representatives have already written letters to legislators in support of the project – to no avail.

Significantly, support comes from both upstream and downstream.

Montgomery County people want this project as much as Harris County people, because it would enable Lake Conroe to avoid seasonal lowering.

See letters from:

Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey, PE, to Governor Greg Abbott

Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey, PE, to Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick

Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey, PE, House Speaker Dade Phelan

North Houston Association to Governor Greg Abbott

North Houston Association to Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick

North Houston Association to House Speaker Dade Phelan

Partnership Lake Houston to Governor Greg Abbott

SJRA to State Senator Brandon Creighton

SJRA to Senator Joan Huffman

SJRA to Senator Charles Perry

Lake Conroe Association to Senator Brandon Creighton

Lake Conroe Association to Senator Robert Nichols

Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority to Governor Greg Abbott

City of Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin to Governor Greg Abbott

City of Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin to Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick

City of Houston Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin to House Speaker Dade Phelan

Harris County Flood Control District to Governor Greg Abbott

Harris County Flood Control District to Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick

Harris County Flood Control District to House Speaker Dade Phelan

City of Humble Mayor Norman Funderburk to Governor Greg Abbott

Kingwood Service Association to Governor Greg Abbott

Kingwood Service Association to Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick

Kingwood Service Association to House Speaker Dade Phelan

Greater Houston Partnership to the entire Houston Delegation

Kingwood Area Superneighborhood Council to Governor Greg Abbott

Kingwood Area Superneighborhood Council to Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick

Kingwood Area Superneighborhood Council to Houston Speaker Dade Phelan

Humble ISD to Governor Greg Abbott

Humble ISD to Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick

Humble ISD to Dade Phelan

Montgomery County Judge to Governor Greg Abbott

Montgomery County Judge to House Speaker Dade Phelan

Montgomery County Judge to Senator Brandon Creighton

Montgomery County Judge to Senator Lois Kolkhorst

Montgomery County Judge to Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick

Montgomery County Precinct 4 to Governor Greg Abbott

Montgomery County Precinct 4 to Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick

Montgomery County Precinct 4 to House Speaker Dade Phelan

Greater East Montgomery County Chamber to Governor Greg Abbott

Greater East Montgomery County Chamber to Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick

Greater East Montgomery County Chamber to House Speaker Dade Phelan

Time for Residents to Add Their Voices

At this time, we need to start a telephone campaign by residents. NOW! This session ends in days.

Please voice your support for the project by calling the offices of Governor Abbott, Lieutenant Governor Patrick, Senator Creighton, and Rep. Greg Bonnen, chair of the House Appropriations Committee. Ask them to add $150 million for more Lake Houston floodgates in next year’s state budget.

You could make the difference.

Posted By Bob Rehak on 5/17/2023

2087 Days since Hurricane Harvey