As I passed the beautiful new Kingwood Middle School (KMS) last weekend, it struck me. Despite many heavy rains during construction that lasted almost three years, neighbors never reported flooding.
Too often, I hear of construction projects that alter drainage and flood neighbors. But Humble ISD seemed to consider that problem from the start and took appropriate measures to prevent it. The District even built a temporary stormwater detention basin before tearing down the old KMS. It protected the neighborhood during demolition and construction before the new permanent basin was completed.
The result is a magnificent architectural gem – a showcase for the entire community – without drama, stress or destruction.
Pictures Taken 8/27/23
Main entrance of new KMSThe KMS building now occupies the space of the old athletic fields and the athletic fields occupy the space of the old building.Note grass on the sides of the stormwater retention basin. The basin will reduce the risk of street flooding in the surrounding neighborhood.
The current drought has the football-field grass struggling. But somehow, the grass on the sides of the detention basin seems well established. The vegetation on the slopes reduces erosion which could clog the inflow/outflow pipes.
For Photographic History of Project
For photos showing the history of Kingwood Middle School demolition and re-construction, see below.
Thanks to the Humble ISD, its board and contractors for a job well done.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/1/23
2194 days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/20230827-DJI_0415.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-09-01 09:32:212023-09-01 09:33:14Celebrating Completion of new KMS Without Flooding
August 30, 2023 – Yesterday evening, multiple news organizations reported wildfires burning near Colony Ridge in Liberty County.
Yet large parts of Colony Ridge, the fastest growing part of the county, have few fire hydrants. Some areas have none at all. And in the areas that have them, fire hydrant spacing is 2-5X greater than codes specify, while pressure is reportedly half of what codes require. And according to some sources interviewed for this article, many hydrants allegedly don’t work.
All this increases residents’ fire risk and insurance rates – if they can even get fire insurance. Some say they can’t.
Former Plum Grove Mayor, LeeAnn Penton-Walker says she and Colony Ridge residents have been trying to alert the county judge, commissioners, engineer and fire marshal to the dangers since 2015.
Fire Safety Top of Mind as Drought Deepens
Meanwhile, fire safety is at the top of everyone’s mind as the current drought deepens amid relentless heat. A burn ban remains in effect across the region. The National Weather Service has posted red-flag warnings for today. A combination of very dry vegetation, low humidity and gusty winds could easily spark fires.
Note critical fire danger in Liberty County (center).
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, says that numerous fires started around the region yesterday and we have similar conditions today. “Fires especially in pine canopies continue to exhibit extensive growth rates and fast forward motion with long lasting crown runs. Increasingly larger fires are requiring large amounts of resources for an extended period of time,” says Lindner.
Recent Pictures Show Vast Areas with Apparently No Hydrants
On August 12, as I flew over Colony Ridge in Liberty County, the scarcity of fire hydrants struck me. I did not see any. However, the Liberty County fire marshal told me that the developer was trying to bring the development up to code. I knew the development had at least a handful of hydrants from a story I did three years ago. But Colony Ridge has virtually doubled in size since then.
Below are four pictures from areas recently built out. Many lots in these areas have already been sold and occupied. So you should see fire hydrants. But I couldn’t, even when magnifying high-res versions of the images on a large screen.
These photos are representative of thousands of shots I have taken from helicopters over Colony Ridge.
Areas With Fire Hydrants Do Not Meet Code Requirement
I asked the county fire marshal for a list of hydrant locations, but he could not supply me with one. So I spent a full day criss-crossing the area and burning a tank of gasoline looking for them. I located 59. See the satellite images below.
In the first, note how hydrants are clustered in rows and columns. Also note how large parts of the development have none. That verifies what I saw from the air.
Southern part of Colony Ridge. Yellow pins mark location of hydrants.
In the satellite image above, for instance, note the:
Broad empty swath across the bottom
Another broad swath on the east running north to south
An empty area in the middle
Another empty area at the top.
The next satellite image shows eight fire hydrants in the most populated portion of the northern part of Colony Ridge.
Portion of the northern part of Colony Ridge
Altogether, Colony Ridge covers more than 30 square miles. It has almost doubled in size in the last two years. If my count is accurate, it now has only about two fire hydrants per square mile.
What Fire Codes Require
Even though the Liberty County Fire Marshal’s web page does not list a fire code, Bill Hergemueller, the fire marshal, said that the county follows 2018 IFC (International Fire Code) regulations. That code specifies maximum spacing of 500 feet, but Hergemueller said the county allows 600 feet. However…
On any given east-west street above, the fire hydrant spacing averaged more than 3000 feet. That’s more than half a mile!
Measurements taken in Google Earth
Fire hydrants on north-south streets have an average spacing of 1300 feet.
So considering both directions, the average spacing exceeds code requirements by 2-5X.
But again, most streets have absolutely no fire hydrants. That makes the distances to fire hydrants far greater! A Houston fire captain told me that his trucks carried at most 500 feet of fire hose.
To service areas such as Colony Ridge, volunteer fire departments use tanker trucks. They fill their tanks at a hydrant and then shuttle to the fire until it is extinguished.
In fairness, Hergemueller also pointed out that parts of the development are still expanding and that the IFC regs were adopted after Colony Ridge started developing in 2013.
Codes Largely Agree
Most national standards call for one fire hydrant every 200-500 feet depending on the type of development.
The 2018 IFC regulations used by Liberty County specify 200- to 500-foot spacing between fire hydrants, with a few exceptions, i.e., in areas where buildings have sprinkler systems.
National Fire Protection Association standards specify that for detached one- and two-family dwellings “fire hydrants shall be within five hundred (500′) feet… The maximum distance between fire hydrants shall not exceed 800 ft.”
Texas’ Local Government Code 233.061-C gives Liberty County the right to enforce its fire code retroactively. In other words, the county could force the developer to upgrade his infrastructure to meet current code requirements.
In addition to violating fire-hydrant spacing requirements, Colony Ridge has another problem: existing water mains may not have enough pressure to douse fires before they get out of control.
The IFC code requires a minimum 1000 gallons per minute. But Colony Ridge water mains reportedly only deliver 500 gallons per minute.
Alternatives to Hydrants Also Missing
A “fire-code standards” expert I talked to in another county said that in rural areas, the alternatives to hydrants include on-site infrastructure such as water storage tanks and ponds that firefighters could use as sources of water. However, Colony Ridge does not appear to have those. In fact, the developer has drained many of the ponds to build homes over them.
So volunteers fill a tanker truck at one of the working hydrants, drive to the fire, pump their water, and refill as necessary until a blaze is extinguished. The standards expert told me that is a common practice in rural areas.
But Colony Ridge is rapidly becoming “un-rural.” In fact, Colony Ridge is likely larger than the three largest cities in Liberty County put together, though it is difficult to say for sure because of the large number of undocumented aliens.
Colony Ridge now occupies an area that is one-third of the area inside Houston’s 610 loop. Can you imagine an area that size with only 59 fire hydrants? To put that number in perspective, I live in the City of Houston and have 9 hydrants – on my block!
Problems Retrofitting Older Areas with Hydrants
An engineer consulted for this article said that once streets are in, it’s difficult retrofitting neighborhoods with hydrants and larger water mains. Not impossible, but difficult. It requires tunneling under streets and driveways, and that rapidly becomes expensive. That’s why most developers put utilities in before they pave.
Who Will Pay for Water?
During my hydrant inventory, I noticed that most Colony Ridge fire hydrants contained this sign. It says, “Fire hydrant use requires registered meter with Quadvest. For emergencies, usage must be reported to Quadvest. Unlawful use prohibited and punishable by law.” Then it lists Quadvest’s address and phone number.
This fire hydrant gets so much use, they leave the covers off.Or is that a signal it doesn’t work?
It appears that someone will be charged for the water coming out of this hydrant. However, it’s not clear whether that will be fire victims, volunteer fire fighters, the municipal utility district or water-rate payers. At press time, sources had not returned phone calls to clarify who would pay.
Calls for Service Up as Colony Ridge Expands in Drought
By August 21, according to a Facebook Post, the Plum Grove VFD had already received 855 calls for service compared to 1,111 in all of last year. So, three per day last year. And so far, 3.7 per day this year. That’s a lot of demand on volunteers! One wonders how it affects their regular jobs.
Growth has no doubt played a role in the increase. So has the drought and an increase in wildfires.
Without hydrant spacing that meets fire codes, unsuspecting residents face extra risk and higher insurance costs – if they can even get insurance.
Burned to the ground in Colony Ridge. Remnants of an American dream.
If any responsible parties would like to respond to this post, I will make space available.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/28/2023
2189 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230828-Screenshot-2023-08-28-at-9.50.25-AM.jpg?fit=1100%2C780&ssl=17801100adminadmin2023-08-30 15:02:052023-08-31 10:33:38As Wildfire Weather Sets In, Fastest Growing Area in Liberty County Fails to Meet Fire-Code Requirements
Harvey was a near week-long event. So it’s hard to pinpoint an exact day for the anniversary. But I chose to start the clock ticking from the day floodwaters arrived at my doorstep – August 29, 2017, 2191 days ago.
Looking east at West Fork Flooding over Townsen Blvd. during Harvey
Since then, I have investigated why we flooded (beyond the heavy rainfall) and how to prevent similar catastrophes in the future. The causes include:
Unpredictability of storms
Development in risky places
Construction practices
Sand mining
Political complications
Short memories
Let me explain each briefly.
Unpredictability of Storms
The only way to predict the future is by looking at the past. But the future often surprises us. Unfortunately, we base engineering on yesterday’s storms, not tomorrow’s. Engineering bigger safety margins into our flood control systems is too costly. Especially when you try to do it retroactively.
Development in Risky Places
We build too close to rivers. In swamps. Over wetlands. On fault lines. Why? Simple. Money. There’s always an engineer somewhere willing to render a favorable report about the safety of doing so with certain precautions. But again, they are looking at the past, not the future. And they write lengthy reports that defy comprehension by ordinary homebuyers.
The developers and their trade associations also lobby regulators and politicians to keep requirements loose. Every dubious project falls into that gray area called “acceptable risk.” And it can take years or decades to incorporate known flood risks from storms like Harvey into regulations that govern development. That gives everyone with property in risky places plenty of time to develop it.
Clearing for Madera. 2022 photo of development at FM1314 and 242. Parts of development are in 10-year floodplain.
Construction Practices
Why build stormwater detention basins and ditches as big as you should? Why install silt fences? Why plant grass in them to reduce erosion if nobody is inspecting them? All that costs money. But it also sends extra silt downstream. And when the extra water comes on top of it, there’s nowhere for the water to go but into people’s homes.
Eroding ditch in Colony Ridge due to lack of erosion control measures such as backslope interceptor systems and grass.
Sand Mining
To produce marketable sand, mines must wash small particles of clay out of it. Miners then direct the wastewater to settling ponds. But that wastewater builds up. And soon it must be released. Some mines pump it over the sides of dikes. Some just open up their dikes. The result: accelerated deposition of sediment, again blocking rivers and streams.
Confluence of Spring Creek and West Fork. TCEQ found that Liberty Mines discharged 56 million gallons of white waste water into the West Fork.
The construction of dikes also makes them susceptible to rupture during floods. They are thin, tall, made out of sand, next to rivers, and often unvegetated. Floodwaters can push them in, scoop up silt, and carry it downstream.
Triple PG sand mine draining industrial wastewater into Caney Creek and Lake Houston.
Political Complications
Political leaders deal with dozens of problems a day. A storm like Harvey gets their attention. Six years later, in the middle of a drought, not so much. Flood control spending has dropped precipitously. And what little spending remains has focused on low-to-moderate income areas, not the areas with the most flood damage.
As of end of 2023Q1. Data obtained via FOIA Request.Based on same data, this shows a totally different rank ordering that ignores impact on communities.
Would it surprise you to learn that halfway through a ten year flood bond, we’ve spent only about 30% of the money? That six years after Harvey, we’re just now seeing the outline of the state’s first flood plan? That sprawling upstream developments pay little attention to sediment control? That many jurisdictions still haven’t adopted minimum drainage regulations?
Short Memories
For the most part, homeowners have restored their property using insurance payments, public assistance, and/or their kids college funds.
Now they want to worry about their kids’ prom dresses, birthday parties, the next vacation and a new car they can’t afford. They just assume that the Flood Bond they approved after Harvey is being spent wisely to protect them. Most don’t even remember what the money was supposed to be spent on.
Photo by Camille Pagel. Her children are helping to gut the kitchen instead of going to school after the Harvey flood.
So it might surprise them to learn that not one capital improvement construction project in the Lake Houston area has yet been approved. It would also surprise them to learn that after spending millions of dollars on studies, their flood risk remains and that the economics of upstream development (see sand mining and construction practices above) continue to increase that risk.
Higher Priorities Replace Flood Mitigation
Now we have crime, election chaos, impeachment spectacles and Trump mug shots to divert our attention. But we will grow weary of these, too. And then the rains will return. People will flood. And we will wonder, “Why didn’t that get fixed?”
Posted by Bob Rehak on August 29, 2023
2191 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
CenterPoint delays have forced a change in Northpark Drive expansion plans.
Contractors working on the Northpark Drive expansion project in Kingwood have installed culvert as far west as they can until CenterPoint begins eliminating 11 conflicts. According to Ralph De Leon, Northpark project manager for the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority (LHRA), CenterPoint was to have begun eliminating the conflicts on August 1. Four weeks later, CenterPoint hasn’t yet started.
Center Ditch Work Paused; Two New Areas of Focus
The CenterPoint delay is forcing LHRA contractors to change their plans. Specifically:
Work in the drainage ditch between east and westbound lanes will pause temporarily.
Contractors will move their crews west and begin working on:
Stormwater retention basins at the corner of Northpark and I-69.
Contractors have already prepositioned equipment and materials for the Ditch One portion of the project behind Duncan Donuts and the stormwater retention basins at I-69. However, as of Sunday morning, 8/27/23, work has not yet begun on either area.
Overview showing route of supplementary drainage (Ditch One) from I-69 to to Diversion Ditch and Ben’s Branch.
Photos Taken Sunday August 27, 2023
The pictures below show where contractors will now focus until CenterPoint mobilizes.
Workers have begun pre-positioning equipment and materials behind Duncan Donuts next to Public Storage to begin working on Ditch One.Ditch One will carry stormwater north (left) of Northpark from the wet-bottom retention ponds that will be built at I-69.Looking west along Northpark. Both groves of trees in the foreground will become stormwater retention basins.
Stormwater retention basins willaccommodate the extra runoff from the expanded roadway. Culvert under the roadway will connect the two basins and let them drain toward the east into Ditch One.
Looking east at north grove in foreground. Note culvert and pipe being prepositioned inside tree line.
When finished, the twin ponds should resemble the entry ponds at Kingwood Drive.
Where Work Will Pause Temporarily
Meanwhile, farther east, work on replacing the drainage ditch with 5’x7′ culvert has paused.
Looking west along Northpark. Drainage work in the center ditch has paused at JiffyLube until CenterPoint resolves its conflicts.Looking back east. The 5’x7′ box culverts have already been buried. Eventually two new lanes of traffic will go over them, one in each direction.
LHRA Posts Revised Schedule
LHRA has already posted a revised schedule on its website with a three-week lookahead so that you can plan your schedule to avoid construction.
LHRA has also posted construction drawings; drainage studies; and photos and videos that show the progress of work.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/27/23
2189 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230827-DJI_0364.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-08-27 10:53:012023-08-27 20:02:00CenterPoint Delays Force Change in Plans on Northpark Drive Expansion
Montgomery County has just finished an Upper Taylor Gully clean out that will restore the conveyance in the channel which had become totally blocked.
The new commissioner in Montgomery County Precinct 4, Matt Gray, has adopted a much more active and collaborative role in flood mitigation than his predecessor.
Commissioner Gray’s crews inspected Taylor Gully above the Harris/Montgomery County line and found it totally blocked in places from accumulated erosion and littered with illegally dumped trash.
Gray then dispatched more workers to remove blockages. As a result, residents on both sides of the county line will sleep a little better if and when the next hurricane or tropical storm strikes.
The area they addressed is Woodridge Village, the same area where Harris County Flood Control is working with Sprint Sand and Gravel to double the existing detention basin capacity.
While Harris County Flood Control and the City of Houston own the area around the main ditch, Montgomery County owns the yellow areas (see below).
Pictures below were taken near the blue dot in the center. Montgomery County owns area in yellow.HCFCD and City of Houston own the blue area.
Pictures of Cleanup, Clean Out Effort
Kennedy Williams with Commissioner Gray’s office provided the pictures below. The effort began with inmates removing several truckloads of old illegally dumped tires, trash and signs.
Prisoners removing old tiresThen crews mowed banksof the outfall ditch.Finally, an excavator and front-end loader removed accumulated sedimentNote how high the dirt line was. Sediment completely blocked the 36-inch outfall pipe.
A Timely, Valuable Job
The Upper Taylor Gully cleanup and clean-out efforts are timely for several reasons. We are:
Approaching the peak of hurricane season on September 10th.
At the fourth anniversary of the Elm Grove floods that damaged up to 600 homes twice in 2019 – between May 7th and Tropical Storm Imelda.
Watching an area of low pressure move into the Gulf that has a 90% chance of turning into a tropical storm or hurricane in the next 48 hours.
While the National Hurricane Center projects that it will miss Houston to the east, the projected impact area has been shifting west in the last 24 hours.
Gray’s effort will help restore conveyance of the Upper Taylor Gully channel to its design specs. It will also help reduce flood risk for hundreds of families should another flood strike the area.
Thank you, Commissioner Gray!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/26/2023
2188 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 1437 since Imelda
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230825-Taylor-Gully-Outfall.jpg?fit=1100%2C825&ssl=18251100adminadmin2023-08-26 15:28:012023-08-26 15:28:02Upper Taylor Gully Clean Out by MoCo Precinct 4
This is a bit off topic for a flood blog, but it affects tens of thousands of readers. Late yesterday, after multiple heat records were broken across the region, the City of Houston announced water-use restrictions going into effect Sunday, August 27, 2023. Let me address the heat first, water restrictions second. Then I’ll discuss rain chances and the tropics.
Heat Records Shattered Across Houston Region
Yesterday, the Houston area experienced another unrelenting afternoon of scorching temperatures. Many areas reached the mid- to upper-100’s with a few areas into the low 110’s.
Afternoon daily temperature records were shattered at many sites – many by several degrees.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
High Temperatures on Thursday, 8/24/23
BUSH IAH: 109 (tied the all time record high, broke daily record high of 105 from 1980)
Huntsville: 111 (shattered record high of 102 from 2011…daily record high broken by 9 degrees)
College Station: 111 (broke record high of 107 from 2010)
Hobby: 107 (broke record high of 100 from 1980)
Conroe: 108 (broke record high of 105 from 1922…101 year old record)
Brenham: 107 (broke record high of 106 from 1980)
Sugar Land: 107 (broke record high of 101 from 2011)
Wharton: 106 (shattered the record high of 99 from 1911…112 year old record)
Cleveland: 109 (broke record high of 104 from 1980)
Crockett: 109 (broke record high of 106 from 2011)
CoH Water-Use Restrictions
According to a City of Houston press release, Houston has entered Stage Two of the City’s Drought Contingency Plan. Due to intense heat and a significant drop in annual rainfall. Effective August 27, 2023, mandatory water-use restrictions will go into effect. They apply to the entire City:
Limit outdoor watering to twice a week between the hours of 7PM and 5AM
Sundays and Thursdays for single-family residential customers with even-numbered addresses
Saturdays and Wednesdays for single-family residential customers with odd-numbered addresses
Tuesdays and Fridays for all other customers
Any outdoor water use that results in city water leaving your property (i.e., draining onto adjacent property, or streets or gutters) is unlawful.
Violations of watering times will get you a written warning for the first violation. Any subsequent violations are subject to a fine up to $2,000 for each occurrence; see Section 54.001 of the Texas Local Government Code.
Easy Ways to Conserve Water
Here are some easy ways to conserve water:
Check and repair water leaks, including dripping faucets and running toilets.
Check sprinkler heads to make sure water is not spraying into the street or directly into a storm drain and/or gutters.
Avoid washing sidewalks, patio furniture or cars. If you must wash your car, use a car wash. Most car washes use recycled water.
Run dishwashers and clothes washers only when full.
Take shorter showers.
Install a rain barrel and use it for outdoor watering.
Turn off the water when you are not using it (e.g., while brushing teeth or shaving).
For more water-saving tips, visit www.givewaterabreak.org.
Rain Chances
The high-pressure ridge parked over us for the last two months is giving a little bit of ground. Yesterday, thunderstorms finally overcame subsidence in the super-heated afternoon air mass. The gage at the West Lake Houston Parkway bridge recorded 0.44 inches of rain. Despite several downed trees, people cheered because of our deep drought.
According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, as high pressure moves west, weak disturbances may approach the area from the east and northeast.
Combined with high temperatures in the low- to mid-100’s, scattered thunderstorms will be possible.
Wildfire Risk Remains
Thunderstorms come with the threat for lightning-induced wildfires. One such fire started yesterday in the Humble area. Lightning strikes will be possible each day and strong gusty winds can quickly fan fires.
Additionally, wind direction and speeds can quickly change near and around thunderstorms creating very hazardous conditions for ground crews. Multiple fires caused by a single thunderstorm can quickly overwhelm local resources. So use extra caution. Burn bans remain in effect.
Western Caribbean Sea
An area of low pressure has crossed Central America into the western Caribbean Sea. It should move north toward Florida. As of this morning, the National Hurricane Center gave it a 70% chance of formation during the next 7 days.
However, it remains unclear where exactly any surface low will form and how it may interact with the surrounding landmasses. Additionally, there may be wind shear to contend with in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. At this time, models predict varying intensity as the storm moves north.
Currently, this system does not pose a threat to Texas. But watch for winds that could enhance our local fire weather.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/25/2023based on information from Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, and City of Houston
2187 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/two_atl_7d0-4.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2023-08-25 11:14:582023-08-25 11:24:44Heat Records and Water-Use Restrictions
By Jeff Lindner, Harris County Flood Control District’s Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist, with a few minor edits for a non-technical audience.
There have been many comparisons of this summer to that of 2011 with respect to the heat and drought. Below, see the comparison of drought, water supply storage, and heat between 2011 and 2023.
Rainfall (Jan 1 to Aug 23)
2023 Rainfall
2023 Departure
2011 Rainfall
2011 Departure
BUSH IAH
29.97
-2.29
10.93
-21.33
Hobby
22.20
-11.83
10.47
-23.56
Conroe
28.41
-3.25
17.54
-14.69
College Station
21.47
-3.79
10.57
-14.12
As the table above shows, the rainfall departures in 2011 were significantly greater at all sites. That indicates a much more significant drought in 2011 than in 2023.
Rainfall departures in 2023 were tempered by a wet April and May over much of the area, while in 2011 drought conditions in the spring were some of the worst ever recorded with many areas recording their driest spring ever. 2011 was also preceded by dryness in late 2010 that helped to worsen the 2011 drought conditions and water supply concerns.
Rainfall at Hobby Airport in 2011 (Feb-May) was only 1.31 inches compared to 2023 of 11.85 inches.
While it is clear that 2011 was worse with respect to lack of rainfall, the abrupt change in rainfall from late spring into the summer of 2023 has “shocked” vegetation across the region.
Additionally, it has been hotter to some degree (especially overnight) in 2023 and the flash drought has been severe with nearly the entire area drought free in early June to all of the area in severe to extreme drought as of August 15th.
The very warm maximum temperatures and record “high” low temperatures over the region have resulted in rapid degradation of vegetation health. Tree losses were staggering in 2011 and the area is starting to see losses mounting in 2023, but far below what was experienced at this point in 2011.
Comparison of Drought Conditions, Extents
In 2011, exceptional drought covered most of the state.
In 2023, exceptional drought is minuscule by comparison.
Reservoir Storage
2011 also featured significant drawdown on area lakes and water supply reservoirs as the longer duration “hydrological” drought resulted in record or near record low inflows to several lakes.
As of this afternoon, statewide reservoir storage is at 69.8% of capacity compared to 65.4% on this date in 2011. A low of 58.5% was recorded on 11-18-2011.
The table below summarizes storage capacities for the first 2 weeks of August 2023 compared to 2011:
2023 Capacity
2023 Departure
2011 Capacity
2011 Departure
Conroe
92.5%
-1.60
82.0%
-4.05
Houston
96.4%
-.42
81.0%
-6.50
Livingston
89.0%
-2.38
90.0%
-2.08
Texanna
77.2%
-3.83
52.0%
-9.62
Somerville
79.0%
-2.90
49.0%
-8.06
Travis
39.4%
-47.96
43.0%
-44.50
Buchanan
49.7%
-22.55
51.0%
-23.00
Lake Conroe and Houston are much better off than in 2011 with Lake Livingston being nearly the same and both Somerville and Texanna significantly better off in 2023 versus 2011. This matches well with the rainfall trends experienced in late Spring over the area which for the most part filled Houston, Conroe, Somerville, and Texanna to near capacity, allowing the recent dryness to be well handled.
This was not the case in 2011 when a very dry spring and dryness from late 2010 was already depleting capacities prior to the summer increased demand and evaporation losses.
Central Texas Lake Levels Lower in 2023
However, across central Texas at Travis and Buchanan, conditions are worse at this point than in 2011. Travis is 3.46 ft lower in 2023 than in 2011 and Buchanan is 0.45 ft lower.
Central Texas and the highland lakes chain have been in drought conditions since the summer of 2022 and rainfall this spring was not as significant in this area compared to coastal areas of the state and SE TX, so lake inflows have been very low and evaporation and demand maximized.
Heat Comparison
In addition to the drought conditions, it has been brutally hot. But how does 2023 compare to 2011 with respect to 100 degree or hotter afternoons? This is only part of the story of the heat of 2023, as overnight low temperatures have also been warm.
College Station has recorded 42 days with a morning low at or above 80 degrees, BUSH IAH 41, and Hobby 44. However, Galveston has recorded 64 days this summer at or above 80 degrees for a morning low.
The above average Gulf of Mexico waters are resulting in exceptional overnight heat along the coast.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Days At or Above 100
Days At or Above 105
2023
2011
2023
2011
BUSH IAH
33
34
3
2
Hobby
28
14
1
0
Conroe
38
38
5
0
College Station
52
51
22
9
With the exception of Hobby Airport, 2011 and 2023 are nearly tied for the number of 100 degrees days up to 8-23. Hobby Airport has surpassed 2011 by 14 days.
More significant is the number of days at or above 105 with College Station crushing 2011 by 13 days. All sites have recorded more 105+ degree days in 2023 compared to 2011. The afternoon high temperatures have been higher in 2023 than in 2011 especially at Conroe and College Station.
Most of this has occurred in the last 3-4 weeks as the ground has dried and the influence of high dewpoints from the Gulf has become less. That has let afternoon temperatures spike higher compared to June and July.
By Jeff Lindner, Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist, Harris County Flood Control District, on 8/23/2023
2185 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Drought-Comparison.png?fit=1100%2C800&ssl=18001100adminadmin2023-08-23 18:55:102023-08-23 18:56:39Drought Comparison – 2011 to 2023
The massive $1.77 billion expansion of the 120-acre Northeast Water Purification Plant near Summerwood is now well into its last phase. The last update to the expansion website is dated May 23, 2023 and estimates completion in 2025. Contractors have made considerable progress since May. This satellite image is dated 6/14/23. Note the area on the far right at the eastern side of the plant. That area contains most of the new construction activity.
Landsat Photo in Google Earth from June 2023
Aerial Photos Taken 8/12/23
Compare the photos below of the Northeast Water Purification Plant taken just two months later. They were all taken on 8/12/23.
Looking SW from NE Corner of plant.Close up looking south.Wider shot looking N from SE corner of plant. White circle will contain a giant water storage tank.Looking W at entire plant. Note NE corner of Beltway 8 beyond plant and Atasocita Landfill in upper right.Looking ENEtoward Lake Houston
5X Capacity Increase Will Help Reduce Subsidence
The Northeast Water Purification Plant is designed to help ensure Houston’s water supply while reducing groundwater usage. Pumping groundwater at a rate greater than nature replaces it can cause irreversible subsidence. Subsidence has been linked to increased risk of flooding and structural damage.
The physical site above contains three major sections.
The original plant which can treat 80 million gallons per day (foreground)
First expansion phase (middle)
Second expansion phase (far end).
In May, Phase One was nearing completion and expected to be ready soon. Phase Two is the major focus of efforts now.
Because Lake Houston is so shallow, turbidity increases rapidly during rainfall events. Accordingly, the partners have incorporated both wet- and dry-weather technologies into the treatment plant, so operators can switch nimbly as needed.
Innovative treatment strategies like chlorine dioxide, ozonation and biological filtration have been proven at other Texas facilities using similar source waters. Given the broad range of raw water qualities, they will help the City preserve high-quality finished water and deliver more of it.
Majority of Water Used by Industry
Houston Public Works Drinking Water Operations (DWO) currently serves about 2.2 million people. And Harris County’s population alone is projected to expand to 5.5 million people by 2050. But serving all those extra people is only half the battle.
Many Sources Help Meet Demand, Protect from Drought
To meet demand DWO has three water treatment plants and 49 groundwater production facilities. They span four counties and 600 square miles, making Houston’s system one of the most complex in the nation.
And to feed those plants, the City of Houston owns a 70% share of Lake Livingston, a 70% share of Lake Conroe, 100% of Lake Houston and a 70% share of the future Allen’s Creek Reservoir on the Brazos River.
The variety of sources help sustain a growing population through droughts, such as the one we are in now. Corporations evaluate such factors when choosing where to expand. For more information about Houston’s water supply, check this informative history, written by Susan Smyer in 2008.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/22/2023
2184 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230812-RJR_2264.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-08-22 11:50:102023-08-22 11:50:11Northeast Water Purification Plant Expansion Now in Last Phase
8/21/23 (9 AM CDT) – Three named storms have formed in the Atlantic in two days and we will likely get fourth (in the Gulf of Mexico) today or tomorrow.
Tropical storms Emily and Gert formed in the Atlantic yesterday (8/20/23). Gert formed overnight. And a fourth disturbance barreling across the Gulf of Mexico toward the lower Texas Coast could reach tropical storm intensity today or tomorrow, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
2023 Summary Compared to 30-Year Average
So far this year, the Atlantic Basin has had:
An unnamed sub-tropical storm in January, that was later determined to have 70 mph max winds
Tropical Storms Arlene, Bret and Cindy in June
Hurricane Don in July
Emily, Franklin and Gert in August
If the disturbance currently in the Gulf turns into a named storm, it will become Harold – the ninth storm of the year to reach tropical storm intensity.
Normally, by this week in the hurricane season, the Atlantic Basin has five named storms. See the table below from the NHC’s Climatology page.
Progress of the average Atlantic season (1991-2020). Date upon which the following number of events would normally have occurred.
Number
Named systems
Hurricanes
Major Hurricanes
1
Jun 20
Aug 11
Sep 1
2
Jul 17
Aug 26
Sep 19
3
Aug 3
Sep 7
Oct 28
4
Aug 15
Sep 16
–
5
Aug 22
Sep 28
–
6
Aug 29
Oct 15
–
7
Sep 3
Nov 15
–
8
Sep 9
–
–
9
Sep 16
–
–
10
Sep 22
–
–
11
Oct 2
–
–
12
Oct 11
–
–
13
Oct 25
–
–
14
Nov 19
–
–
Greatest Threat to Houston is Fire
None of the current disturbances in the Gulf, Caribbean or Atlantic represent a threat to Houston.
The closest storm to Houston is south of Mississippi as of 9AM Tuesday morning. It will miss the upper Texas Coast and likely come ashore between Corpus Christi and Brownsville tomorrow.
NHC says that showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization and banding. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development. And a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form before it reaches the coastline on Tuesday. Formation chance is high…80 percent.
The greatest threat to the Houston area is not rain or flooding; north of I-10, we should see only about a tenth of an inch from the storm. But hot, dry conditions combined with a long-term drought have created critical fire weather conditions. A burn ban is in effect. High winds associated with the storm could spread fire quickly. So be careful. Several fires are already burning in other parts of East Texas.
Discussion of Other Disturbances
Unnamed Storm off African Coast
NHC gives the other unnamed storm off the coast of Africa a formation chance of 70% in the next 7 days.
Emily
Emily will also turn north. Its intensity will lessen into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning.
Franklin
NHC predicts Franklin will turn north and cross Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti through the middle of the week. It could produce heavy rainfall; life-threatening flash and urban flooding; and mudslides through Wednesday.
Gert
Gert is quickly unraveling. NHC expects to downgrade it into a tropical depression by Monday at 2PM.
A Record?
Is three or four named storms in two or three days a record? According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, it’s not. The record is closer to five or six at one time, he says. Regardless, tropical activity is heating up. The peak of hurricane season is still three weeks away – September 10th. It looks like earlier predictions of an above-average season were accurate.
In the meantime, watch out for that heat! Here’s a summary put together by Lindner of record highs on 8/20/23.
College Station: 112 (tied all time record high from 9-4-2000, broke the all-time August record high of 110 from 8-17-1903, and shattered the daily record high of 107)
BUSH IAH: 108 (broke the daily record high of 107 from 1909). This is only the 5th time since the 1880’s that Houston has reached 108. 1 degree shy of the all-time record high of 109.
Hobby: 107 (broke the daily record high of 101 in 1999).
Galveston: 97 (tied record high from 1995)
Huntsville: 112 (shattered the daily record high of 106 from 1909)
Madisonville: 108 (broke daily record high of 105 from 1948)
Sugar Land: 107 (broke daily record of 101 from 2018)
Conroe: 109 (tied all time record high from 2000 and 1925)
Tomball: 110 (shattered daily record of 101 from 1999) All time record high surpassing 108 in 2000
Wharton: 106 (broke daily record of 100 from 1911)
Brenham: 108 (broke daily record of 105 from 1948)
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/21/23
2183 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/two_atl_7d0-3.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2023-08-21 08:46:472023-08-21 08:46:48Three Named Storms in Atlantic in Two Days, Could Get Fourth
(11AM 8/20/23 and updated at 7PM) Here’s something you don’t often see – a tropical disturbance that could increase fire danger more than flood risk.
The 8am 7-day tropical outlook from the National Hurricane Center shows that Tropical Storm Emily has formed in the Atlantic. Separately, a disturbance lingering over the Bahamas has finally crossed over Florida and moved into the Gulf. However, the latter storm will likely miss Houston as it veers south into the lower Texas Coast and northern Mexico. That means…
8AM update on Aug 20, 2023 from NHC
Twelve hours later, another tropical storm formed in the Atlantic – Franklin. And NHC increased the chances for formation for the two orange disturbances to 70%.
8PM update on Aug 20, 2023 from NHC
High winds from the storm combined with the lack of rain and dry vegetation could actually increase fire danger north of I-10.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Rainfall Chances for North Houston Area Slight
Unfortunately, the still unnamed Gulf disturbance will likely bring little rain to the Houston area. The 72-hour cumulative prediction from the National Weather Service shows about a quarter inch of rain south of I-10 and a tenth of an inch north of it.
As of Sunday morning, the disturbance is centered south of the Florida panhandle.
That big clear area over the southern plains and Texas is the high pressure system that has dominated our weather for the last month. It forms a barrier that will likely block the lower pressure system in the Gulf from moving north toward Houston.
High Winds, but Little Chance of Flooding
Jeff Lindner, Harris County meteorologist predicts that tropical moisture will begin to arrive along the Texas coast on Monday with offshore scattered activity increasing through the day.”
Lindner believes that I-10 will be a good dividing line between higher coastal rain chances and lower inland chances late Monday into Tuesday.
Said Lindner, “There will likely be a strong south to north rainfall gradient over the region … with rain chances in the 50-60% range near the coast, 30-40% along I-10, and generally less than 30% north of I-10.
Lindner expects wind gusts up to 30 knots on Monday and Tuesday as the storm passes. He also predicts that seas will build 5-9 feet for most offshore waters. He also predicts that tides will be elevated late Monday into Tuesday, but he doesn’t expect them to reach critical thresholds or cause any issues along the coast or in the inland bays.
Inland winds will increase Monday into the 15-20 mph range with higher gusts. Ironically, the biggest threat from this storm may be fire.
Lindner predicts that the high winds inland along with low humidity and critically dry vegetation will support an enhanced fire danger for those areas along and north of I-10. “Fires could quickly spread in these conditions,” warns Lindner.
Red Flag Warnings
At 2:39 PM, Lindner announced that red flag warnings had been issued for most counties in SE Texas including Harris, Montgomery and Liberty.
Potentially dangerous fire weather conditions will exist on Monday as the tropical system approaches. It will increase the pressure gradient across much of SE TX. Humidity values will decrease through Monday and reach below 30% during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Fuels loads are critically dry over the region, said Lindner. “Small fire will grow rapidly. Fires continue to exhibit aggressive behavior in pine areas and winds on Monday.Ccanopy crown runs will make containment lines challenging.
Fire conditions have deteriorated to those similar to August and September 2011 when several large devastating fires occurred over portions of SE and central Texas.
Extreme Drought Conditions Persist
In fact, the U.S. Drought Monitor shows that the Lake Houston Area is in Extreme Drought.
What have temperatures and rainfall been compared to the 30-year average?
Temperatures so far this year have been consistently above the average for the last thirty years (green line compared to yellow line). Rainfall (blue and red bars) has been both above and below average. April and May were both above average. But June, July and August have been far below.
According to the Harris County Flood Warning System, the West Fork San Jacinto gage at US59 last received rain on July 23rd – four one-hundredths of an inch!
Obviously, this is not the time for outdoor burning! In fact, the Texas A&M Forest Service shows that most Texas counties currently have burn bans.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/20/2023
2182 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/image001-2.png?fit=902%2C598&ssl=1598902adminadmin2023-08-20 11:51:312023-08-20 19:12:10Gulf Disturbance Could Increase Fire Danger
