Exactly one month before the peak of hurricane season, Kingwood Drive construction has kicked into high gear. Kingwood Drive is one of the area’s primary evacuation routes and experiencing construction bottlenecks.
Source: National Hurricane Center. Data applies to Atlantic Basin.
Luckily, the National Hurricane Center expects no tropical activity in the next seven days. NHC does not forecast beyond seven days.
Aerial Photos Show Traffic Constrictions
Reconstruction of Kingwood Drive between Loop 494 and US59 has begun in earnest. TxDoT has narrowed traffic to one lane in each direction. And according to the City of Houston, TxDoT now estimates that construction may last until October. Previously, TxDoT estimated September.
Dave Martin, City of Houston Mayor Pro Tem, told a board meeting of the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority this morning that he has asked the City, County and Humble ISD to supply traffic-control officers for the duration of Kingwood Drive construction to help reduce traffic snarls. But just before noon today, inbound traffic was backed up from all the way from 494 to 59.
I took the photos below on Thursday 8/10/2023. They show traffic constrictions in all directions.
Looking N from over Loop 494. Note 494 is still under construction. Number of lanes varies by area.Still looking N. Kingwood Drive bisects the frame L to R and is down to one lane in each direction.At noon, inbound traffic from 59 was backed up to freeway. Outbound traffic on left was less congested. But that part quickly opened up to four lanes at this point today. Note how sidewalk and shoulder on left are being demolished. Focus of construction is on right side.Looking eastbound toward 494. Note fresh concrete in lane on left.Looking SW toward Insperity. Workers are laying rebar in preparation for a concrete pour in upper right corner.Note recent pours in lower right.
The last shot above captures the confusing traffic in this area. Despite the addition of officers, I plan to avoid this area as much as possible until construction is complete.
At the moment, Northpark Drive makes a decent alternative despite construction there, too. Northpark traffic is still two lanes in each direction. And the project manager says it will remain that way throughout construction.
Grand Parkway Construction Went Much Faster
I sure hope that if a hurricane heads this way, TxDoT hustles up. Loop 494 construction started at Kingwood Drive in 2019, four years ago – exactly when TxDot started extending the Grand Parkway east from 59 to Baytown. Grand Parkway crews finished the 33-mile extension to Baytown 15 months ago. The project above covers 3 miles. Reportedly, TxDoT has switched contractors after problems with the first one.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/10/23
2172 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230810-DJI_0337.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-08-10 14:57:392023-08-10 15:34:24Kingwood Drive Construction Bottlenecks Evacuation Route One Month Before Peak of Hurricane Season
To help accommodate the expansion of Northpark Drive and the Kingwood Diversion Ditch, City of Houston (CoH) contractors are cleaning sediment from under the Northpark Bridges. This effort will eliminate a constriction in the Diversion Ditch that backed stormwater up, forcing it into Bens Branch, flooding people, businesses and schools downstream.
Separately, Week 2 of Northpark Drive expansion has seen other breakthroughs farther west.
Cleaning and expansion of the median ditch have reached almost to the UnionPacific (UP) railroad tracks that parallel Loop 494.
CoH and UP are also reaching agreements – at long last – that will let contractors move forward with construction at a much faster rate.
See more details and photos below.
Photos of Bridge Clean-out Taken 8/8/23
Looking east toward Woodland Hills at sediment removal project under Northpark bridges.Side view looking SE toward North Woodland Hills shows more of work under bridge.Looking west across Diversion Ditch and sediment removal project toward Russell Palmer. Photo by Father TJ Dolce of St. Martha Catholic Church.
8/8/23 Photos of Northpark Ditch Clean-out
Looking East from Northpark median at Public Storage. Note Duncan Donuts on left.Reverse angle looking West shows remaining distance to UP tracks and Loop 494 at intersection.
The ditch clean-out will make room for 5′ x 7′ box culverts like those you see below. Workers have now buried all of the round concrete pipe stockpiled last week. They have also cut through concrete in the crossover between the fireworks stand and Flowers of Kingwood.
Steel cofferdam prevents wall collapse, protects workers in ditch.
According to Ralph De Leon, project manager for the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority and TIRZ 10, CoH and UP have come to terms on one agreement and are close to finalizing a second.
The first covers covers maintenance and construction. It will let contractors drill under the railroad tracks to address utility issues. Cost: $2.2 million.
The second agreement covers vertical and horizontal easements. Cost: under $200 thousand. The easements will let contractors build a bridge and access roads over the tracks.
However, it will also require the TIRZ to purchase two additional tracts of land north and south of Northpark at the railroad tracks.
Resident Reacts to Sediment Removal in Diversion Ditch
Flood activist and Kingwood resident Chris Bloch lauded the CoH sediment removal under the Northpark Bridge. He called it, “Great news for Kingwood!”
“Removal of the sediment under the Northpark bridges will substantially recover conveyance capacity of the Diversion Ditch,” he added. “When the water level in the Diversion Ditch touches the bottom of the Northpark bridges, the bridge acts as a dam and water levels upstream rise rapidly.” That forces water into Bens Branch, threatening homes and businesses on either side of it.
Remembering Stan Sarman
Bloch worked with former TIRZ president Stan Sarman, who was also an engineer, to approach Mayor Pro Tem Dave Martin and CoH about the need for this project. They agreed that sediment removal from the Diversion Ditch under the Northpark Bridges would help reduce flood risk in Woodland Hills, Hunters Ridge, Bear Branch and Kings Forest.
Martin’s office arranged for the purchase order to get this project done.
Bloch took video during Imelda and shared it with Sarman, who had the original drawings of the bridge and channel from 1972. He is quick to give credit to Sarman who has since passed away. “I am not sure most Kingwood residents appreciate all Sarman did for Kingwood,” said Bloch.
This project and the repair of the channel under the Tree Lane Bridge are valued at nearly $1 million dollars.
Come back soon for more updates. The Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority will hold a public board meeting Thursday at 8 a.m. at the Kingwood Community Center to discuss this and other business.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/9/2023
2171 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230808-DJI_0248.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-08-09 06:14:272023-08-09 09:13:52CoH Removing Sediment under Northpark Bridges, More Good News on Northpark Expansion
This week, Harris County is releasing to the public a final report on the botched March 2022 primary election – a year after the report’s completion. That’s almost a year after a second botched election last November that has mired the County in lawsuits over election results.
The report recommended a number of changes in election processes. Had the then newly appointed Harris County Elections Administrator Clifford Tatum implemented the recommendations before the November election, many of the problems experienced by voters might have been prevented. But no one has explained why Tatum didn’t.
Most of the problems detailed in March also happened in November.
Fifty pages of election-worker survey data buried at the end of the March election report quantifies the magnitude of the problems that voters experienced.
Quantified the percentages of poll workers who experienced the following types of equipment problems:
Almost one third (31.4%) of workers had problems with the Duos (machines that create both electronic and paper versions of voters’ choices).
One fifth (19.3%) of workers had problems with the Scanners.
One tenth (9.8%) of workers had problems with the ePollBooks.
Question 17 on page 99
Delved into who (among election workers) had the problems and when:
One third (36.5%) of workers had problems with equipment during setup and operation.
The degree of problems did not vary significantly by the amount of election experience that the worker had, suggesting the problems were not caused by inexperience.
The problems virtually doubled on Primary Election Day compared to early voting (24.2% for early voting compared to 46.3% for Election Day).
45.8% of Republican election workers experienced problems compared to 29% of Democrats.
Question 10A on page 66
Measured the rough estimates of election workers as to voters who experienced problems:
6.5% of election workers felt most voters had problems recording votes on new machines.
Another 13.5% felt “less than half” of the voters had problems recording their votes.
So, 20% of election workers saw more than “a few voters” experiencing problems.
Question 9 on page 65
Measured how long it took election workers to get help via phone:
Twice as many Republicans (21.4%) had to wait longer than a half hour on the help line compared to Democrats (11%).
This contributed to long lines during the November election.
Question 7 on page 63
Measured how long it took election workers to pick up supplies:
22.7% of Republicans said they had to wait longer than an hour for their supplies compared to 13.7% of Democrats.
This contributed to many polls opening late in November.
Question 24 on Page 105
Looked at Political Affiliation of poll workers:
Democratic workers outnumbered Republicans by 12.1% (51.5% to 39.4%).
Vague Recommendations Don’t Get to Heart of Issue
The recommendations by the consultant performing the analysis focused mainly on processes and process improvements. Their recommendations on page 108 include:
Refine and prioritize desired objectives and outcomes;
Identify performance measures to meet outcomes;
Inventory the data assets available to measure outcomes;
Identify gaps in available data assets;
Establish clear lines of responsibility among EAO staff for each outcome or category of outcomes; and
Design processes to monitor the progress toward meeting outcomes.
Nowhere in the 114 page report did the consultant use the word “fair,” as in “conduct a fair election” to describe an outcome.
Results of word search in PDF
“B Certified”
The consultant’s report did, however, give us a clue about their company values.
A “B certified” watermark showed up on virtually every page of the ForsMarsh report. I didn’t know what that meant, so I looked it up.
BCorporation.net, a company that B-certifies other companies says, “Certified B Corporations are leaders in the global movement for an inclusive, equitable, and regenerative economy. Unlike other certifications for businesses, B Lab is unique in our ability to measure a company’s entire social and environmental impact.”
In choosing a vendor to audit the election, it would seem that Harris County selected a vendor that was more concerned with social impact than fairness. Their report demonstrates that.
Little Fanfare for Long-Awaited Report
The ForsMarsh Group delivered its report to Harris County on August 31, 2022. It’s now available to the public as the backup to Agenda Item 313 for the August 8, 2023, Commissioners Court meeting. That’s little fanfare for a long-awaited report.
By the way, #313 is a simple transmittal of the report to commissioners. No context or explanation is provided.
Too bad we didn’t have the report in a timely way before the November election last year. So much for transparency!
And little wonder that County Election Administrator Clifford Tatum is playing dodgeball with depositions. At the end of June this year, Tatum failed to appear for a scheduled deposition. And now, attorneys representing Judge Lina Hidalgo filed a motion to quash any further depositions of Tatum.
One Final Qualification and a Question
Harris County has also stonewalled production of records related to the November election. Data in the just-released report finally quantifies issues in the Marchprimary election. However, it does not measureNovemberelection problems directly, i.e., those over which Tatum presided.
Regardless, the Primary data parallels independently compiled evidence of similar problems found on Election Day in November. That raises one final question: Nine months after the November election, why haven’t we seen an official report on it yet?
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/7/23
2169 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Screenshot-2023-08-07-at-2.29.51-PM-e1691441835206.png?fit=1100%2C684&ssl=16841100adminadmin2023-08-07 16:00:232023-08-07 19:04:33Smoking Guns Buried in Harris County 2022 Primary Election Report
Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey and Daniel Ramos, Executive Director of Harris County’s Office of Management & Budget,will host a town-hall budget meeting to discuss next year’s budget.
Commissioner Ramsey urges you to attend and voice your opinions on how the county should address wasteful spending, save money, and prioritize next year’s budget.
Why You Should Attend
Precinct 3 maintains nearly 47% of the county’s roadways, but only receives 25% of the general funds, and only received 17% of the 2022 Road and Park Bonds.
Commissioner Ramsey expresses the need for the public to attend in order to understand how tax dollars are truly being spent.
This meeting will let you voice your priorities on how Harris County should prioritize its responsibilities and spending of tax dollars.
Meeting Details
WHEN: Monday, August 14th, 2023, 6 PM
WHERE: George H.W. Bush Community Center
6827 Cypresswood Dr., Spring, TX 77379
Q&A SESSION: Following presentations
Free Shuttle Service
The county will offer free shuttle service from the following Precinct 3 Community Centers. Space is limited. Pre-registration required. Call the community center to save your spot!
Barrett Station Community Center
Departs at 3:45 PM
Call (713) 274-2040 to register
Crosby Community Center
Departs at 4:15 PM
Call (832) 927-7730 to register
May Community Center
Departs at 4:30 PM
Call (713) 274-2434 to register
San Jacinto Community Center
Departs at 4:15 PM
Call (713) 274-2860 to register
Trini Mendenhall Community Center
Departs at 4:30 PM
Call (713) 274-3200 to register
County Responsibilities in Texas
For reference, according to the Texas Association of Counties, responsibilities of Texas county government include:
Providing public safety and justice
Registering voters and holding elections at every level of government
Maintaining Texans’ most important records
Building and maintaining roads, bridges and in some cases, county airports
Providing emergency management, health, and safety services
Collecting property taxes for the county and sometimes for other taxing entities
Issuing vehicle registration and transfers
Harris County also offers libraries, parks, and other programs that add to the quality of life for residents. Many play a vital role in the economic development.
So learn more at the Town Hall. Join other concerned residents and let your voice be heard on how tax dollars should be prioritized and spent. I’ll be there. And I hope to comment about the distribution of flood bond money.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/5/2023
2067 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Commissioner-Tom-Ramsey.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-08-05 19:54:302023-08-05 20:15:13Mark Your Calendar: Harris County Precinct 3 Budget Meeting
Colony Ridge Land, LLC, developer of the world’s largest trailer park in Liberty County, is buying up Harris County property in the floodplain of the East Fork San Jacinto. Since the property in the Cypress Point subdivision was originally platted, flood maps changed in 2001 and are in the process of changing again. Most of the properties face serious flood risk that the current flood maps may not communicate.
Land Remains Uncleared
Development has not yet started. The land is still heavily wooded…so much so, in fact, that dirt roads developed in the 1980s have become overtaken by trees and undergrowth. They are barely passable according to one person I talked to.
Colony Ridge has acquired at least 19 (but not all) properties within red area.What the partially developed area looked like in 1988. Note unpaved roads nearest river.
Back in the late 1980s, the original developer cleared space for roads and platted the land going down to the East Fork. But today, paved roads stop about a quarter mile short of the river. From the air, those old dirt roads look like a slight indentation in the forest canopy.
Looking NE from over the utility corridor that forms the southern limit of the area. East Fork on right flows toward camera.Looking NE from farther north. Old roadway appears as a crease in the jungle.Still looking NE.Note how pavement on Birchwood Drive stops short of entering area.Reverse angle looking S toward Lake Houston visible as blue streak below horizon in upper left. Lake Houston Park on right.
The Big Question
Why did the original developers stop short of paving roads all the way to the river? The answer likely has something to do with floodplains. Note in the image below how several of the lots border or lay within the floodway. Many more lay within the 100- and 500-year floodplains.
How Bad Could Flooding Be?
But those floodplain maps are outdated and can mislead. High-water marks established by HCFCD and contour maps by the U.S. Geological Survey suggest this property has flooded seriously at least 8 times in the last 20 years.
Elevation profile from USGS National Map
From the East Fork to the end of Oaknoll Drive, the elevation rises from approximately 42.5 feet to 67 feet. The 24.5-foot difference might sound like a lot. But consider this.
In 1994, the flood of record for the East Fork in this area (before Harvey), crested at 76.2 feet. That would have put the highest property near Oaknoll under 9 feet of water. The lowest property near the river would have been under 33.7 feet of water.
Then came Harvey. At the nearest gage, the East Fork crested at 81.2 feet.
That would have put the highest and lowest properties under 14.2 feet and 38.7 feet of water respectively.
Even though most of the acquired properties are shown in the 500-year flood plain, most of them have been under water eight times in the 20 years since 1994.
Floodplains change with better understanding of the climate, upstream development, and better measurement technologies, such as LIDAR. Our current flood maps were developed after Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. But we’ve gotten a lot smarter about flood mapping since then.
That’s why Harris County Flood Control District and FEMA are updating flood maps for this area. The floodplains you see above will likely expand by 50% to 100% according to preliminary guidance from Harris County Flood Control. FEMA is in the process of certifying revised maps and should release them later this year or early next for public comment.
Are Readings from FM1485 Analogous to Cypress Point?
Give or take few feet, the flood depths cited above are probably in the ballpark. Even if the high-water marks at Cypress Point are a few feet lower, they still represent serious flooding.
HarrisCountyFEMT.org shows that the width of the floodplain at FM1485 and Cypress Point, lower left, does not vary significantly.
One of the region’s leading hydrologists who has studied this area extensively felt the flood heights at FM1485 would translate well to Cypress Point where Colony Ridge is acquiring property. Colony Ridge has purchased at least 19 properties in the affected area. The map below shows where they are.
Note how virtually all purchases happened after Imelda, which would have put even higher properties under almost six feet of water.
Another property valuation report shows how the land value decreased 73% after Imelda in 2019. Colony Ridge purchased most of the properties in 2020. Bargain hunting?
Homes on Stilts Likely Unaffordable for Colony Ridge Target Market
Many may not have a firm grasp of English. Few likely understand flood risk, especially the nuances of flood maps in flux. And Colony Ridge typically “owner finances,” meaning buyers don’t go through banks which would require flood studies and flood insurance before making a mortgage loan.
Under today’s guidelines for developing land in floodplains, especially this deep in floodplains, homebuilders would likely have to elevate homes on stilts. And elevating homes 35 feet high would likely make them cost prohibitive for most of Colony Ridge’s primary target market.
Watch this one closely to make sure that no rules get broken.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/4/23
2166 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Cypress-Point-Sat-View-Outlined.jpg?fit=1100%2C864&ssl=18641100adminadmin2023-08-04 16:37:572023-08-05 10:22:59Colony Ridge Buying Up Floodplain Land in Huffman
After spending years to study Northpark Drive expansion, partners are wasting no time getting it started. Northpark drainage construction now stretches halfway to US59.
On Friday, 7/25/23, I wrote about contractors starting to stack drain pipe near the Kingwood Diversion Ditch. On Monday, I posted about box culverts being stacked hundreds of yards farther up the ditch. By last night, 8/1/23:
The first pipe in front of Flowers of Kingwood was being buried.
Additional pipe was stacked up approximately another 800 feet toward US59, waiting for installation.
Ditch clearing/prep stretched to the Kings Mill entrance, halfway from the start point to US59.
Of course, work was at different stages along the way. See the pictures below.
Pictures Taken 8/1/2023
Looking NE.Near the Diversion Ditch at the starting point, contractors were starting to bury the 66″ round, concrete pipe.Looking W from over previous shot, 6’x8′ box culverts were lined up on the ditch shoulder as contractors prepped the bottom of the ditch.Looking back east. The culverts stretched to JiffyLube.Looking east from over the Russell-Palmer Road intersection.Looking east from the Kings Mill intersection at the current extent of work.Looking west from the Kings Mill Entry toward Loop 494 and US59.The next step.
The drainpipes now being installed in the center ditch will eventually make a platform for additional lanes of traffic. So Northpark drainage must precede Northpark reconstruction.
Land Acquisition Completed Monday
Ralph De Leon, project manager for the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority, yesterday dropped off the last two checks for parcels of land that need to be acquired for the expansion of the roadway near US59. That completed a land acquisition process that began in 2019.
Next Steps in Coming Weeks
Resolving CenterPoint Conflicts
A natural gas line runs down the center of the ditch where drainage is being installed. It comes into conflict with the project at 11 points between the railroad on the west and the diversion ditch on the east. Centerpoint has agreed to prioritize that work.
Sign/Fence Conflicts
Near Russell-Palmer Road, a fence in front of one business and a sign in front of another will need relocation.
Sawcutting Crossovers
Contractors will sawcut crossover sections to prep for concrete removal during installation of drainage pipe/culvert.
Expansion of LHRA/TIRZ Project Website
The Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority (LHRA) and TIRZ 10 are expanding their website to inform the public of progress. New features will include:
A 3-week, look-ahead schedule of coming events
Regular updates, at least twice monthly
Videos of work in progress
Check back frequently for more updates. At the moment, this is one of the most important flood mitigation projects in the Kingwood Area.
Northpark drainage is just the first step in the Northpark Drive expansion project. Construction will likely take several years to complete. But it will provide an evacuation route for tens of thousands of Kingwood and Porter residents during floods.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/2/2023
2064 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230801-DJI_0184.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-08-02 09:53:442023-08-17 15:39:52Northpark Drainage Construction Stretches Halfway to US59 in Less than Week
During July 2023, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) contractor Sprint Sand and Clay, LLC, excavated 5,754 cubic yards from a new Woodridge Village stormwater detention basin. That brought Sprints’ grand total up to 135, 751 cubic yards.
5,764 cubic yards equals another 3.6 acre feet. The previous month, Sprint excavated 5 acre feet. So, excavation during July declined 28%. At the current rate, Sprint would take another 8 months to bring detention volume up to Atlas-14 requirements (see table below).
At the end of July, excavation had reached 92.6% of Atlas-14 requirements, up slightly from June, when it had reached 92%.
Why Atlas 14 is Important
Atlas-14 defines the current standard for safely containing a 100-year rainfall. The lack of detention basin capacity contributed to the flooding of hundreds of homes along Taylor Gully twice in 2019, after Perry contractors clearcut the property.
However, the good news is that Sprint’s contract could eventually take the site well beyond Atlas-14.
Before/After Photos Show July Progress
I took the first photo below on July 1, 2023.
Woodridge Village July 1, 2023, looking NE.
I took the other photos below at the end of July.
July 29, 2023. The big difference appears to be the area filled with water.
The outline has changed little. But additional water in the absence of rain and the presence of blistering heat suggests excavation may have reached the water table.
During the month of July, when temperatures pushed a 100 degrees every day, the nearest gage received only 2 inches of rain. And most of that was three weeks before the photo above.
HCFCD often prefers wet bottom retention basins because they reduce mowing costs, but the design of this basin is not yet complete.
Those circular patterns may indicate the use of scrapers to lower the bottom of the new basin gradually.However, north (right) of the exposed water, contractors still seem to be using excavators to expand the edges of the area.
Under HCFCD Excavation and Removal contracts, contractors are free to excavate where they want within the provided footprint.
Green area indicates rough outline of new basin.
Where Does Woodridge Village Excavation Go From Here?
HCFCD’s Excavation and Removal contract with Sprint Sand & Clay calls for excavating up to 500,000 cubic yards. Sprint excavated approximately 8,000 cubic yards (5 acre feet) in June.
Any excavation beyond Atlas-14 needs would create a safety hedge against future needs should they increase.
Calculations based on original construction plans, HCFCD monthly reports, Atlas-14 Requirements and Sprint contract. Sprint could excavate down to or even slightly past the small grove of trees in the top center.
Sprint will make only $1,000 from its Woodridge Village excavation contract with HCFCD, but will make its profit by selling the dirt at market rates. It’s a good deal for taxpayers, but carries some uncertainty with it.
If the demand for dirt dries up, excavation could slow or stop.
But simply excavating the dirt isn’t the end of the job. Harris County still needs to slope the sides, plant grass, and tie the new basin into the site’s existing stormwater-detention-basin network. Engineers are reportedly working on plans for all that, according to HCFCD.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/1/2023
2163 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230729-DJI_0158.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-08-01 15:29:352023-08-01 17:05:56Woodridge Village Excavation Slows in July
Where can you find reliable climate data if you want to cross check a claim you hear on the news? Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner referred me to two sites recently: The U.S. Drought Monitor and the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) website. To help produce these resources, NOAA has collaborated with universities and state climate offices around the country. They make invaluable, data-driven resources for fact checking, research and public-policy planners.
Is It This Hot Everywhere?
It feels as though the lead story on the evening news every night for last two months has been the extreme heat in Phoenix. Simultaneously, the Houston area has experienced extreme heat and humidity, and the resurgence of drought conditions. The news stories inevitably tie any departure from “normal” to “climate change” and blame it on the burning of fossil fuels – usually without citing the source of their information.
So, imagine my surprise when I explored the U.S. Drought Monitor for the week of 7/25/23 and discovered that areas to the north and east of Texas were wetter and cooler than normal. “Record-setting rains were recorded over western Kentucky and the area had significant flooding,” they said. And “Temperatures were cooler than normal over most of the central Plains, Midwest and Mid-Atlantic with departures of 2-4 degrees below normal widespread.”
While the Southwest drought was accelerating last week in Texas, New Mexico and southern Arizona, it actually lessened/improved across a wide belt covering the middle of the country.
Climate Is an Average of Cycles
While still at U.S. Drought Monitor, I looked up Texas droughts since 2000.
Colors show the intensity of droughts and the time scale across the bottom shows their length and frequency.
Note the gaps between droughts. Also note how the relatively light gap from 2015 to 2019 corresponds to the Tax Day, Memorial Day, Harvey and Imelda floods we had during that period.
The graph below measures departures from average annual precipitation for the upper Texas Coast. This graph goes back to 1895. So to compare it to the one above, focus on the far right. Notice the big dip (brown area) around 2010, then the green peak that corresponds to the flood years.
128 years of precipitation data for the upper Texas Coast. Shows annual departures from (normal).From SCIPP.
Note how the largest brown area corresponds to the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s. But also note how peaks follow valleys in cycles.
While still on the SCIPP web site, I found another drought tool that lets you look up precipitation by date over various time periods. It’s still not fully functional yet. So far, they only have data for Louisiana. But when I looked up data for July 23-29, it compared the same week going back to 1900. The numbers below are less important than the dates associated with them in the last two columns.
Note how virtually all of the wettest and driest weeks on record occurred more than 90 years ago, before the rise of the internal combustion engine.
From SCIPP website “drought tool” page.Emphasis added.
Also note that some of the wettest weeks on record for Louisiana occurred during those Dust Bowl years; Louisiana was not part of the Dust Bowl geographically.
Elsewhere on the SCIPP site, I found pages and tools that let you compare rainfall and temperature by year and month. Here’s where we are so far for 2023.
But look at 2017, the year of Hurricane Harvey. They needed to establish a totally new vertical scale for rainfall!
The last SCIPP chart that I’ll discuss shows the average temperatures; daily highs/lows; minimums and maximums for any given reporting station.
NOAA defines “climate” as a 30-year moving average.
SCIPP has dozens of other useful tools for students, fact checkers, and weather bugs to explore.
What Causes Drought/Flood Cycles?
Various factors influence drought/flood cycles. They include climatic, environmental, and geological elements. Cycles are often region-specific and caused by multiple factors. According to ChatGPT, primary causes include:
Climate variations, such as El Niño and La Niña
Ocean currents and temperatures
Atmospheric circulation patterns
Topography and geography, such as mountains, proximity to large bodies of water, etc.
Land use and vegetation changes, such as deforestation, urbanization, and agricultural practices (a major factor in the Dust Bowl years).
Natural disasters, such as hurricanes
Rainfall variability. Even absent climatic changes, certain regions naturally experience periods of higher or lower rainfall.
Specific causes and interactions of these factors can vary from region to region.
In some cases, multiple factors may coincide, leading to more severe and prolonged drought or flood events.
Beware of generalizations about climate change based on individual events, short time periods, and isolated locations.
Climate Disasters in Historical Context
Understanding these complexities is essential for better preparedness and mitigation strategies to minimize the impacts of such natural cycles.
Climate disasters have existed for thousands of years. Go to the Four Corners area and visit Chaco Canyon, Canyon de Chelly or Mesa Verde. A prolonged drought contributed to wiping out the Anasazi culture a thousand years ago.
“Glacial periods last tens of thousands of years. Temperatures are much colder, and ice covers more of the planet. On the other hand, interglacial periods last only a few thousand years and the climate conditions are similar to those on Earth today. We are in an interglacial period right now,” according to the American Museum of Natural History.
Sea levels can rise or fall more than a hundred meters between glacial cycles, which have existed for billions of years.
So when you hear the relentless drumbeat of “climate change” every day without data to back it up, now you know how to check whether the reporters did their homework.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/31/2023
2062 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-31-at-11.21.19-AM.png?fit=2636%2C1220&ssl=112202636adminadmin2023-07-31 16:25:022023-07-31 16:25:03Where to Find Reliable Climate Data
No other watershed comes close to 42%. To understand where the most people live with the most flood risk, see the table below. I compiled it from reports by the 15 regional flood planning groups in Texas.
Column 3 shows people living in 100-year floodplain (1% annual chance) and Column 4 shows the 500-year (.2% annual chance) floodplain population.
When looking at all people living in floodplains, Texas has almost 5.9 million. The last column shows where the largest concentrations of those people reside:
Only two other watersheds, the Trinity and Lower Rio Grande, reported double-digit percentages.
Trinity had 11.7%.
Lower Rio Grande had 17%.
No other watershed even made it over 5% of the floodplain dwellers.
The pie chart below really drives home the lopsided percentage of the state’s flood-plain dwellers living in the San Jacinto basin. San Jacinto is the large green area.
Compiled from data reported by each of Texas’ Regional Flood Planning Groups.
The San Jacinto basin has more people living in floodplains than the next five watersheds put together.
Possible Reasons for San Jacinto Issues
The TWDB report does not explain why. Likely, a number of factors contribute to the high percentage:
The state’s largest concentration of people, jobs, industry
Rapid growth and lax enforcement of development regulations
Insufficient upstream mitigation
Proximity to coast, tropical storms/hurricanes
High rainfall rates
Low, flat terrain
Floodplain Dwellers as Percent of State’s Total Population
The U.S. Census Bureau now estimates that 30,029,572 people live in Texas. With almost 5.9 million of them living in a 100- or 500-year floodplain, that means a whopping one in five live in floodplains.
Of the 20% of Texans who live in floodplains:
8% live in a 100-year (1% annual chance) floodplain
12% live in a 500-year (0.2% annual chance) floodplain.
So, statewide, more people prefer to live in the less risky floodplains. But that’s not the case in every watershed. See the San Antonio watershed in the table above. Three times more people live in the riskier, 100-year floodplain than the 500-year.
Coastline Concentrations
The numbers also show concentrations of floodplain dwellers near other parts of the Texas coastline.
The lower Rio Grande has 13 times more people living in a floodplain than the upper Rio Grande.
The lower Colorado has twice as many people living in a floodplain than the upper Colorado.
The lower Brazos has 2.5 times more people living in a floodplain than the upper Brazos.
The San Jacinto, which is one of the state’s shorter rivers and mostly near the coastline has the highest number of people in floodplains by far.
Coastal areas also face different issues than inland communities. According to NOAA, “These include increased risks from high-tide flooding, hurricanes, sea level rise, erosion, and climate change.”
If I’ve learned one thing about flood prevention, it’s that nothing moves quickly.
Need for More Awareness
And that gives me a sinking feeling – especially knowing how few people have flood insurance and how many more need it.
The floodplains in our area are huge. We have a lot of people. And thus, the scary numbers for the San Jacinto watershed. And also consider this. The numbers above are likely understated, because they only reflect riverine flooding and not street flooding from poorly maintained ditches.
With few affordable structural solutions in sight, TWDB should spend some of their funds on public awareness and education while we wait for projects to happen. Few people understand how much flood risk they live with…until they flood.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Screenshot-2023-07-29-at-9.01.17-AM.png?fit=1536%2C792&ssl=17921536adminadmin2023-07-29 09:52:212023-07-29 19:14:42More People Live in Texas Floodplains than Live in 30 States
On 7/27/23, I interviewed Ralph De Leon, Northpark project coordinator for the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority (TIRZ 10) and Kevin Perkins, a project manager for HNTB, one of the contractors on the job. The discussion covered both the eastern and western phases of the project from Woodland Hills Drive on the east to US59 and beyond on the west.
Since Tuesday, the contractors have made visible progress. Let’s cover that first. Then I’ll cover some surprising facts I learned about the project, including flood-mitigation plans; why the project has taken so long; how it will expand to 10 lanes near the railroad and Loop 494; parts of the project that will be elevated; bridge reconstruction; Atlas-14 conflicts; and more.
Box Culverts Arrive
By mid-day today, contractors had box culverts stacked several blocks in the median between Russell-Palmer Road and Flowers of Kingwood. They also had three excavators working Thursday, compared to one on Tuesday. And they were cutting concrete in the cross-overs.
Looking west from the diversion ditch (foreground). Only the 66″ round concrete pipe by the first excavator was there on Tuesday.Looking east down the Northpark Drive medianin opposite direction.Those rectangular culverts measure 6’x8′.Note men cutting concrete in the median between Flowers of Kingwood (upper left) and the fireworks stand (out of frame, lower right).
The 6×8 box culverts stacked in the distance will extend under the cross-over and connect to the round concrete pipe using the junction box stacked in front of the four round pipes. See below.
Box culverts were stacked up to the red rib truck in the background.
The box culverts will convey 35 square feet of stormwater compared to slightly fewer square feet for the round pipe.
That “step-down” as stormwater moves toward the diversion ditch will provide inline detention.
Also note that the existing culverts under the crossovers provide even less conveyance/storage than the new pipe. The old pipes were much smaller and frequently become clogged with weeds and grass due to long maintenance intervals.
According to Perkins, the new pipe/culvert solution offers less friction from end-to-end. The pipes shouldn’t become clogged like the old pipes did because grass and weeds won’t grow in them. Also, their consistent dimensions under the cross-overs should let more water pass through faster.
To make sure water can get into the culverts quickly during heavy rains, contractors will use extra large inlets, similar in size to those used on freeways.
Why Project Has Taken So Long
De Leon and Perkins discussed approval delays at length, mostly related to multiple groups giving input and approvals.
The project goes into, out of and back into the City of Houston.
It straddles two counties, each with different leadership and regulations.
A TIRZ, several MUDs, homeowner associations, commercial associations, KSA and Lone Star College are also involved.
Harris County Flood Control District is reviewing all the plans and approvals.
TxDoT has final say over design criteria.
Funding will come from State, Federal, and local authorities.
The Union Pacific (UP) Railroad has had multiple changes in leadership since the project started.
Gaining utility easements and rights of way has taken much longer than expected. For instance, Entergy wants 50 months to move a SINGLE transformer, almost half again as long as it will take to build the ENTIRE bridge over 494 and the UP railroad tracks.
Getting all those dominos to line up has challenged everyone involved.
Project Will Expand to 10 Lanes Near Loop 494
Where the western phase of the project crosses Loop 494 and the UP railroad tracks, traffic surveys indicate that 80% of the traffic will go over the bridge. Regardless, TxDoT requires two lanes of feeder road in each direction to handle local traffic not going over the bridge. Six lanes of bridge and four lanes of feeder will require some property acquisition still to be completed. Not all of the expansion will fit over the center ditch.
Pedestrian Underpass
The eastern phase of the project will contain a pedestrian underpass similar to others found throughout Kingwood. Engineers hope to keep water out by making the entrances higher than surrounding areas so water drains away. The tunnel will be 10 feet wide to accommodate special extra-wide wheelchairs for people with curved spines. Ten feet will accommodate two such wheelchairs moving in opposite directions.
Elevated Roadway with Cheek Walls
In certain areas that experience repetitive flooding, especially east of the drainage ditch where Bens Branch cuts under Northpark Drive, the road will be elevated. Feathering out the bed toward the sides would require killing hundreds, if not thousands of trees. So instead, contractors will elevate the road using “cheek walls.” Highway 59 makes extensive use of cheek walls for the same reason – to conserve space and allow trees to grow.
Two 10-Foot Sidewalks to Lone Star College
West of 59, contractors will build two 10-foot sidewalks along Rock Creek south of Northpark. The sidewalks will help cash-starved Lone Star College students ride bicycles to class when weather permits. Katherine Perrson, now retired head of the college, made the request.
Leaving Room for Diversion Ditch Expansion
The City has hired a contractor called NBG Constructors to clean out the diversion ditch under both Northpark Drive bridges and return the channel to its original as-designed capacity. Over the years, sedimentation has constricted the flow as you can see below.
Note accumulated sediment constricting flow under bridge.
Eventually, Harris County will widen the diversion ditch. HCFCD rated it one of the two most important projects in Kingwood. As part of the Northpark Expansion project, both bridges will be rebuilt, but with enough width to accommodate eventual expansion of the ditch.
Meets Harris County Atlas-14 Requirements
When complete, the project will meet Harris County Atlas-14 requirements for 77339 which are more stringent (about 40% higher) than Montgomery County’s. That’s because virtually all of the water associated with this project will drain into Harris county. MoCo standards are lower because Montgomery averages requirements across the entire county. Rainfall drops off with distance from the Gulf.
Detention Basins and 59 Entry
To reduce the chance of flooding near 59, contractors will build two detention basins on either side of Northpark at 59. They will connect with each other underground and also connect with another basin and channel north of Northpark via an 8 foot pipe.
Timetable
All this won’t happen overnight. De Leon is working on updating the timetable and will post it with a new project website that gives Kingwood and Porter residents weekly or bi-weekly updates. More news to follow, including a deeper dive into the drainage analysis and how some water will be diverted around Northpark.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/27/23
2158 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/20230727-DJI_0112.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-07-27 21:15:072023-08-17 15:42:12Deeper Dive into Northpark Expansion, Drainage Plans
