What a difference a day makes! Yesterday, the Atlantic Basin had four areas of concern. Today, it has five. And, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the chances of tropical development have increased for all of them since yesterday. See the seven-day outlook for the Atlantic Basin below and note the time: Saturday, August 19, 2023 at 3:35 Eastern time.
The NHC diagram below shows a veritable parade of potential storms marching from Africa toward the Americas.
Lowdown on the Lows
Starting with the yellow area moving off the coast of Western Africa:
Yellow Area on Right
A tropical wave located near the western coast of Africa is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible while it moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical eastern Atlantic during the next several days. Formation chance through 7 days…still low…20 percent.
Red Area with X
The red cross-hatched area to the left of the yellow is a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for further development. A short-lived tropical depression will likely form this weekend and move west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase, and further development is not expected. Formation chance through 7 days…high…70 percent.
TD #6
Tropical Depression #6 formed in the central, tropical Atlantic this afternoon. The system will move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. However, upper-level winds will become increasingly unfavorable by late this weekend, so NHC does not anticipate any further development.
Orange Area Entering Caribbean
A broad area of low pressure has formed near the Windward Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized since yesterday. Some additional development of this system is likely and a tropical depression could form by early next week when the system moves into the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60 percent.
Orange Area Entering Gulf
An area of disturbed weather located near the Bahamas will move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week where a broad area of low pressure will form. Some slow development is possible thereafter. A tropical depression could form as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week. The storm will likely make landfall in South Texas and bring little rainfall to the Houston area north of I-10. Formation chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.
Satellite Image Shows Current Conditions in Gulf and Eastern Pacific
The last area represents the most imminent threat to Texas. Here’s what it looks like in a satellite image. Not very impressive at the moment, especially compared to Hurricane Hilary in the Pacific (on the left).
Conditions can change rapidly so prepare and stay aware.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/19/23 based on information from the NHC
2181 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/two_atl_7d0-1.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2023-08-19 17:07:232023-08-19 17:59:04Tropics Show More Activity, Higher Probabilities since Yesterday
Update as of 6:30 PM: Outbound lanes have opened. One inbound lane open. Utility crews onsite.
Northpark Drive is closed in the worst possible place at the worst possible time – Friday night during rush hour in a construction zone. However, the accident that caused the closure is not related to construction.
A little before 3 PM, I got a tip about an accident at Russell-Palmer Road from Ralph De Leon, the project manager for the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority’s Northpark Drive expansion project. He said that a truck had clipped a power pole and wires were down.
By the time I got there with my drone, police and fire trucks had Northpark closed off in both directions between Woodridge Drive and Russell-Palmer. However, I got my drone up from the parking lot of St. Martha’s Catholic Church to get the shots below. That was the easy part.
Getting home (about 2 miles away) took almost 45 minutes.
Bob Rehak
If you have a family member coming into Kingwood during the Friday evening rush hour, warn them to pack their patience. Utility lines are down across the road in BOTH directions.
According to De Leon, Northpark will be closed until the utility company can assess and repair the problem. That could take hours. It will be difficult just to get to the area. Avoid it at all costs.
Photos Taken at 3PM
Looking east along Northpark over Russell-Palmer.Note emergency vehicles blocking inbound traffic.One utility pole has snapped and another one across Northpark appears to be leaning. However, that could be a shadow.
It’s not clear whether the utility lines carry communications or electricity. The downed line in the photo below is next to a power pole; you can tell by the transformer. So it may be a communications line.
The utility line appears to be caught on an eighteen wheeler blocking the inbound lanes.The downed lines stretch from the truck to a snapped pole, across the ditch and then across the outbound lanes.
The inbound traffic was being funneled south on Russell-Palmer toward Kingwood Drive. See below.
The utility pole is snapped in half.Here you can see the lines tangled on the truck.It’s unclear whether the truck struck the pole.West of Russell-Palmer Traffic is backed up to 59 and maybe beyond.
People trying to enter Kingwood through back streets will find the slogging tough. Everyone who normally uses Northpark is trying to squeeze through stop signs not designed to handle this volume of traffic.
Stay away. If you simply can’t, pack your patience.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 4:30pm on 8/18/23
2180 Days after Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230818-DJI_0355.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-08-18 16:45:182023-08-18 18:59:58Pack Your Patience: Accident Closes Northpark in Both Directions
Still three weeks from the peak of hurricane season (September 10), the tropical forecast has suddenly become more active. The latest seven-day outlook from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shows four areas of concern. Two will not affect the Texas Gulf Coast. Eventually, the other two could get close.
The red area at the right currently has a 70% chance of tropical formation in the next seven days.
The orange area has a 40% chance. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for further development of this system, but a tropical depression could still form during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
Neither of those systems poses a threat to Texas.
The yellow area in the middle approaching the Lesser Antilles has a 30% chance of formation.
The yellow area on the left will move toward the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. It also has a 30% chance of tropical formation.
The NHC updates its website several times a day during hurricane season. So bookmark it and check back often for the latest forecasts.
Local Impact Felt by Next Tuesday
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, has been sending out updates all week long on the last system. Here’s what he had to say on Friday morning, 8/18/23. “A low chance of tropical cyclone formation remains possible over the western Gulf early to mid next week.”
“A tropical wave will reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend. As high pressure over Texas lifts northward and centers over the Midwest early next week, this wave will continue westward and approach the Texas coast by Tuesday or Wednesday,” said Lindner.
Possibilities include a tropical wave, tropical depression, or weak tropical storm moving inland along the lower or middle Texas coast. Conditions appear to be generally favorable for some slow development, but dry air is lurking along the U.S. Gulf coast that could wrap into any developing system. Also any developing system could encounter wind shear over the western Gulf from the outflow of powerful Hurricane Hilary in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Any Development Most Likely Near Coast
“With that said, the system will be moving over warm sea surface temperatures and systems, especially in the NW Gulf under the right conditions can tighten up just prior to landfall. This may be a situation where whatever is going to happen with any development occurs very near the coast,” said Lindner.
Most Moisture Near Coast and West of Houston
Lindner concludes, “Regardless of development, tropical moisture will surge into the Texas coast as early as late Monday, but more likely Tuesday or Wednesday. For now, the greatest moisture looks to remain along and south of the I-10 corridor with areas north of I-10 still under the influence of the high pressure ridge over the Midwest. There will likely be a strong gradient in rain chances from south to north over the area next week with the potential for some desperately needed rainfall across the coastal locations.”
Subsiding air from the high to the north will determine how far inland the moisture and rain/bands reach. This map from the National Weather Service (NWS) helps visualize what the situation will look like by Monday, August 21.
Flood Risk Less than 5%
The risk of excessive rainfall that could cause flash flooding is less than 5% according to the NWS.
It’s pretty sad when you start wishing for a tropical storm. But we sure could use something to break the drought and cool us off. Yesterday’s high of 105 was the highest temp recorded in Houston since 1909, according to ABC13. And it could get close to that again today.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/18/23
2180 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/two_atl_7d0.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2023-08-18 09:58:232023-08-18 10:12:04Tropical Forecast Suddenly More Active
The drainage project currently underway down the median of Northpark Drive represents only part of the drainage improvements for the expansion project. Another parallel drainage system about 250 yards north of Northpark will carry additional stormwater all the way from U.S. 59 to the Kingwood Diversion Ditch and Bens Branch. Project engineers call it “Ditch One.”
Additional Parallel Drainage Route North of Northpark
In the satellite image below, the two triangles at 59 surround the wooded areas at the Northpark entrance to Kingwood. Detention ponds similar to those at the Kingwood Drive entry will replace those wooded areas.
Northpark Drive cuts left to right through the frame just above the center. Red line shows route for supplementary drainageand where flow splits in twoat Diversion Ditch.
The water surface elevation of the Northpark ponds will be several feet below grade, as you can see in this video.
The difference between the surface of the ponds and ground level will provide storage capacity to offset the increase in impervious cover created by the expansion of the roadway.
When the south pond fills up, it will overflow to the north pond. And when the north pond fills up, it will drain to the east via an eight-foot culvert. The eight-foot culvert by itself provides additional underground water storage before it reaches the eastbound ditch.
That culvert will go under Loop 494 and the UnionPacific railroad tracks, then turn left (north) until it gets past the businesses on the north side of Northpark. From there, it will empty into a ditch that heads back east again. See below.
Looking East from over 494 toward St. Martha Catholic Church. Arrows in distance show where Diversion Ditch splits off from Bens Branch.Note part of Northpark Drive in upper right.
Ditch One is barely visible in the photo above for two reasons.
The tree canopy is dense this time of year.
Due to lack of maintenance over the years, trees have grown up in the ditch. Contractors will have to clear them out to restore conveyance before completion of the project.
The Big Split
Once water in the ditch reaches the detention basins south of St. Martha Catholic Church, part of the water will enter the Kingwood Diversion Ditch and head south along the western edge of Woodland Hills. The rest will continue east and go down Bens Branch which angles diagonally toward Town Center and eventually empties into Lake Houston near Kings Harbor.
Looking N toward St. Martha in upper left at where flow in Ditch One splits into Diversion Ditch (foreground) and Bens Branch (right)
Why Diversion Ditch is Called Diversion Ditch
The split you see in the red line below is why the Diversion Ditch is called the Diversion Ditch. It is a man-made channel designed to take stormwater out of the natural channel (Bens Branch) to reduce flood risk for homes in the center of Kingwood.
Reverse angle looking Stoward Diversion Ditch.
In the photo above, Bens Branch flows R to L. The Diversion Ditch flows south toward Kingwood Drive and Lake Houston. The blue water towers in background are near the firehouse on Kingwood Drive and Deer Ridge Park.
Looking north at recent CoH excavation under North Park at Diversion Ditch.
Eventually, the Diversion Ditch itself will expand to match the increased conveyance you see under the bridges. Some engineers feel that constrictions like you see above contributed more to flooding than lack of capacity in the ditch itself.
The route that Bens Branch will take to get under Northpark Drive east of the diversion ditch has yet to be determined. However, that phase of the project is still at least three years away. TxDoT is currently evaluating multiple alternatives suggested by engineers for the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority. For more videos of the project, drainage studies and construction plans, see the LHRA website.
Colony Ridge, the world’s largest trailer park, fails to meet Liberty County regulations for the construction of stormwater detention basins and ditches. The development’s basins and ditches routinely lack erosion controls such as grass and backslope interceptor swales. The resulting erosion can reduce the conveyance of streams, increase flood risk and threaten property both inside the development and downstream. The failure to follow those regulations imposes a hidden tax on residents of Liberty and surrounding counties.
Pages 152 and 153 of the regulations also require backslope drain systems to “intercept sheet flow which otherwise would flow over the banks of drainage channels leading to erosion of the side slopes.” Swales behind the edges of basins and channels trap stormwater. Pipes then carry it to the bottom of the ditch or basin so that it won’t erode side slopes.
What Ditches/Detention Basins Should Look Like
The photo below shows a Harris County ditch with grass on the side slopes and pipes that lead from backslope swales to the bottom of the channel. Note how they reduce erosion and sedimentation.
Harris County ditch which follows regulations similar to Liberty County’s. Compare the Colony Ridge ditches below.
Compare Requirements to Photos
I took the pictures below on 8/12/23 from a helicopter while flying over Colony Ridge in Liberty County. Note the lack of grass and interceptor inlets/outlets. Also note the severe erosion that results.
Note severe erosion on banks of pond. Also note lack of backslope swales, inlets, and outlets in base of pond.No backslope interceptor system. No grass.No backslope interceptor system. No grass.No backslope interceptor system. No grasson sides of ditch.Ditto.Ditto
In some cases, the ditches and detention basins don’t even have perimeter maintenance roads and the erosion is cutting into people’s back yards.
Colony Ridge resident losing back of property due to ditch erosion.
The Largest Development Few Know About
Colony Ridge is large and growing rapidly. The satellite image below shows how it has virtually doubled in size within the last two years as it has grown from left to right and bottom to top. The large area in the lower left began developing around 2011. Those lines that look like hashmarks are thousands of mobile homes.
This satellite image taken in July 2023 does not even show the development’s current extent. Much of the area in the upper right below the clouds was cleared since then.See below.Portion of Colony Ridge in upper right of satellite photo has now been cleared.
Colony Ridge already comprises more than 30 square miles. That makes it approximately one third the size of the area inside Houston’s 610 loop.
Mostly mobile homes and rivers of mud as far as the eye can see.
Erosion a Major Issue
Colony Ridge drains into three watersheds: the East Fork San Jacinto, Luce Bayou and Tarkington Bayou. And all of them drain into Lake Houston. That will make erosion from Colony Ridge Harris and Liberty County’s problem forever.
“Erosion and sedimentation can have very serious effects on storm water drainage.”
“Erosion can cause slope failures, increase roughness coefficients, and generally reduce the efficiency of drainage channels. However, sediment deposition can clog drainage culverts and reduce the available conveyance in open channels.”
“Erosion can significantly reduce the maintainability of drainage facilities and increase the cost of maintenance by increasing the frequency with which repairs are required.”
LJA engineering wrote a letter to the Liberty County Engineer that underscores the need to plan ahead as the county transitions from rural to urban. “While limited regulation of development in a rural area may not significantly impact drainage issues, Liberty County is now challenged with explosive population growth and a particularly high percentage of socially vulnerable residents…” said the letter.
Hidden Cost to Downstream Residents
Most people in Harris County don’t even know that Colony Ridge exists. Yet the drainage practices there affect dredging costs downstream. The City of Houston, Harris County and Army Corps spent almost a quarter billion dollars dredging the headwaters of Lake Houston between Harvey and mid-2021.
Clearly, not all of that sediment came from Colony Ridge. However, the development practices in Colony Ridge and other developments like it will set the pattern for the future.
Developments are virtually impossible to change after people start building next to undersized basins and ditches that erode more with every substantial rain.
What You See Makes You Question What You Don’t See
Substandard construction practices make you wonder about engineering practices. Did Colony Ridge engineers produce reliable, accurate estimates of drainage needs? Are those ditches and detention basins sized properly? Will they hold enough runoff to protect residents?
Probably not. Even assuming engineers and contractors did their jobs properly (a big assumption), Liberty County still defines a 100 year/24 hour rainfall as 13.5 inches (see page 108), a rate associated with pre-Atlas 14 days.
Atlas 14 catalogs the current national precipitation frequency standards for every community in the U.S.
However, the phrase “Atlas 14” appears nowhere in the 2019 Liberty County Subdivision and Development Regulations.
But NOAA now defines a 100 year/24 hour rainfall for nearby Cleveland, TX, as 17.1 inches – a 27% increase above the current Liberty County standard. So in a hundred-year rainfall, everything you see in Colony Ridge will be 27% short of capacity. Few people likely understand this.
Consider also that NOAA is already working on replacing Atlas 14 with Atlas 15!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/16/23
2178 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230812-RJR_5768-e1692197968560.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-08-16 11:46:552023-08-16 23:01:40Colony Ridge Stormwater Detention Basins, Ditches Fail to Meet Liberty County Standards
After a sharp decline in the first quarter of 2023, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) spending rebounded slightly in the second quarter. Second quarter spending did not recover to recent peaks, but at least exceeded pre-2018 Flood Bond levels.
Data obtained via FOIA Request from HCFCD on 8/14/23
One Third of Bond Money Spent in Half the Projected Time
However, HCFCD is still behind schedule with mitigation related to the 2018 flood bond. HCFCD has not issued a flood-bond update since last December. But you can calculate progress yourself by looking at the charts in this post.
Six years after Harvey and five years after the flood bond, HCFCD and its partners have spent approximately $1.6 billion to improve Harris County drainage.
Taxpayers approved $2.5 billion in the 2018 flood bond. Approximately a third of that was designated for matching funds to attract another $2.5 billion from Federal, State and local sources.
That means five years after the bond (and six years after Harvey) we are are roughly one third of the way through the bond, which was intended to be a ten-year program. And that one third is likely overstated due to inflation.
Spending Inequities
The County has not spent the money to benefit all people equally, thanks to the so-called Equity Plan approved by Commissioners Ellis, Garcia, and Judge Hidalgo. They argue that people with low incomes should enjoy a higher level of flood protection because they are less able to fix their homes after disasters.
Harris County tracks spending by watershed. Eight watersheds have a populations where Low-to-Moderate Income (LMI) residents comprise a majority of the population. Those same watersheds also tend to have high social vulnerability indexes based on the CDC’s ranking criteria.
Here’s how LMI-majority watersheds line up versus the county’s 15 other watersheds in terms of the money received since Hurricane Harvey.
Data obtained via FOIA Request from HCFCD on 8/14/23
Here’s how all watersheds ranked last quarter.
Data obtained via FOIA Request from HCFCD on 8/14/23
The San Jacinto declined a place in spending among the watersheds last quarter compared to “Since Harvey” (14th vs 13th). For the exact amounts each watershed received last quarter, see the table below.
Data obtained via FOIA Request from HCFCD on 8/14/23
Some readers might notice slight changes in the totals from past time periods. That has to do with ongoing transition of project and invoice coding in the county’s accounting systems. But they affect only about $2 million out of $1.6 billion. And most of those have to do with first quarter invoices received after my first quarter FOIA Request.
For those unfamiliar with the locations of various watersheds, see the map below.
From HCFCD 2019 Federal Briefing
Now compare spending to the actual flood damage during the last 44 years.
This map from MAAPnext, totals damage since 1979. Dark areas represent more damage. Compare the spending priorities above with actual damage in your watershed.
The Texas General Land Office (GLO) has produced a disaster preparedness video guaranteed to make you smile. It features GLO Commissioner Dawn Buckingham, MD, unpacking a disaster preparedness kit with several very young and very cute Texans. The 3-minute video is both informative and fun. Make sure you watch it with your children or grandchildren.
Every Texan, regardless of age should know how to pack a go-bag. Said Buckingham, “Including your children in your planning and preparations helps ensure the next generation will be ready for potential severe weather events. Plus, you just never know what they’ll say!”
Whether excessive heat waves, powerful tornadoes or damaging hurricanes, it is important to be prepared to evacuate. Texas has had 372 declared disasters since 1953. That’s more than five per year!
Of Texas’ total declarations, more than 30% happened in August or later. Evacuations are more common than most may think, and few disasters come with a lot of warning time.
Important Steps
As we approach the peak of hurricane season in the next month, the GLO encourages all Texans to prepare by doing the following:
Know Your Risk – Sign up for your community’s emergency warning system. The Harris County Flood Warning System lets you customize flood alerts by the watershed you live in, the gages nearest you, the amount of rainfall, and the water level in the nearest stream/river. The Emergency Alert System (EAS) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Weather Radio also provide emergency alerts.
Make Your Evacuation Plan – Check with local officials about updated evacuation shelters for this year. Know where your family will meet up if you are separated and where you will stay. Pack a “go bag” including items you need to take with you if you evacuate. A “go bag” should be easy to carry and kept in a place where you can grab it quickly. Check with drivetexas.org to find routes near you. To find a shelter near you, download the FEMA app at fema.gov/mobile-app.
Gather Supplies – Plan for your entire household including children, people with disabilities or access/functional needs, and pets.
Secure Documents – Remember to secure copies of important personal documents. Filing for government assistance requires documentation. Be sure to keep documents in a secure location and take them with you if you need to evacuate. Place these documents in a waterproof bag and back them up on cloud storage or a thumb drive.
Photograph the condition of your home and the items in it. That may prove valuable when making insurance claims.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/unboxing-video-still_original.png?fit=624%2C349&ssl=1349624adminadmin2023-08-14 13:25:192023-08-14 13:27:33This Disaster Preparedness Video Will Make You Smile
Two weeks short of Harvey’s sixth anniversary, FM1010, the main north/south artery between Huffman and Cleveland is still blown out due to excessive, uncontrolled runoff from Colony Ridge. Colony Ridge is the world’s largest trailer park and it’s just upstream near the East Fork San Jacinto in Liberty County. The productivity loss of local residents could easily have added up to half of a billion dollars by now.
Photos taken 8/12/23
I took all the photos below from a helicopter on Saturday, 8/12/23.
Blown out portion of FM1010, aka the Huffman-Cleveland Roadand Plum Grove RoadThe washout forces tens of thousands of nearby residents to take detour.
During rush hours, the backups on FM2090 from traffic trying to get to US59 can stretch miles because of failure to repair this bridge.
The washed out bridge lies at the end of this 2-mile Colony Ridge water cannon.This Colony Ridge drainage ditch, like most others, does not have backslope interceptor swales to help control erosionor runoff.
Neither does this part of Colony Ridge have detention basins to help reduce the amount of runoff flowing into the East Fork San Jacinto.
Estimated Cost of Delays
I wonder if it’s even possible to accurately calculate the number of “people hours” lost to the senseless washout of the FM1010 bridge. But I will try.
For the sake of argument:
Assume 10,000 commuters are inconvenienced for an hour a day (half hour each way).
Multiply that times 365 days and then again by 6 years. You come close to 22 million hours.
Now multiply that times $25/hour.
Assuming these numbers are even in the ballpark, the washout could have cost local residents more than half of a billion dollars. Geez! How much can a twin culvert bridge and some blacktop cost?!
Expansion Accelerates Despite Access Issue
But that hasn’t stopped the Colony Ridge developer from expanding.
Colony Ridge now comprises more than 30 square miles. It has virtually doubled in size in the last two years.Landsat photo from 7/18/23courtesy of Google Earth.
The development started around 2010. It now occupies 50% more land than Kingwood, which is now more than 50 years old.
The developer must be banking on a rapid increase in demand. He reportedly advertises in Mexico and Central America. The pitch: “Own your piece of America.”
Here’s what that looks like:
Note how the back yard is eroding into the drainage ditch.Photo courtesy of Chris Russo.
Long-Time Plum Grove Resident Worries about Evacuation During Storms
The long ditch above drains into Rocky Branch. According to a long-time Plum Grove resident, the stream was completely invisible from FM1010 “back in 2008 and 2011 even.” Then, he says, “Colony Ridge excavators and dozers showed up.” They widened and deepened the stream, but on the Colony Ridge side of the culverts only!
According to the resident, FEMA engineers have told Plum Grove that an actual bridge is now required to convey all the water and survive any length of time.
The resident vividly recalls Hurricane Rita approaching the Texas coastline in 2005 – before Colony Ridge. He said, “There was complete gridlock thru the City of Plum Grove as people from the Crosby and Beaumont areas were trying to evacuate inland. Plum Grove Road was bumper to bumper for 3 full days. Residents could not leave or get back home due to the gridlock thru our little city. How will THAT play out when the next Cat IV or V storm approaches us now that all the dense forests have been cleared?”
Good question!
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/13/23
2175 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230812-RJR_2135.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-08-13 19:33:252023-08-14 10:35:55Six Years After Harvey, Bridge Still Blown Out at Colony Ridge
I flew over Lake Houston this morning in a helicopter. I expected to see the barren lake bed in places like you could during the 2011 drought. However, much to my surprise, the lake was virtually full.
Coastal Water Authority Shows Lake Down Only 6 Inches
The Coastal Water Authority, which manages the lake for the City of Houston, shows Lake Houston is only down a half foot.
Water was lapping at the edge of the the spillway.
Lake Houston Dam spillway. Photo take 8/12/23 at approximately 10am.
SJRA Shows Lake Conroe Down About 15 Inches
Lake Conroe is down about 15 inches from its normal conservation pool (the target level). And it hasn’t released any water downstream toward Lake Houston in months. The SJRA’s dashboard shows
Luce Bayou InterBasin Transfer Canal Bringing the Water
So what’s keeping Lake Houston full? What is offsetting drought and evaporation?
A quick check of the gages on the Harris County flood warning system shows areas far upstream have gotten small amounts of rain. But the most water we saw moving all day was coming from the Trinity River via the Luce Bayou InterBasin transfer project.
Luce Bayou Inter-Basin transfer canal bringing water to Lake Houston from the Trinity River on 8/12/23 at 9 am.
Lake Conroe got enough rain to offset some evaporation but not enough to supply Montgomery and Harris Counties.
It’s nice to have backups for Lake Houston in a drought, especially widely scattered backups that can capture rain moving through different parts of the region.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/12/23
2174 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230812-RJR_1744.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2023-08-12 18:56:222023-08-12 18:57:40Why Lake Houston Is So Full in a Drought
Scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service — have increased their prediction for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season from a near-normal level of activity to an above-normal level of activity.
Forecasters believe that current ocean and atmospheric conditions, such as record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Nino event.
Chances of Above Normal Season Increase from 30% to 60%
NOAA forecasters have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60% (increased from the outlook issued in May, which predicted a 30% chance). The likelihood of near-normal activity has decreased to 25%, down from the 40% chances outlined in May’s outlook. This new update gives the Atlantic a 15% chance of seeing a below-normal season.
Prediction for Named Storms Increase from 12-17 to 14-21
In May 2023, NOAA predicted 12-17 named storms. NOAA’s update calls for 14-21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater). Of those, 6-11 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). And of those, 2-5 could become major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).
NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. These updated ranges include storms that have already formed this season.
The updated 2023 Atlantic hurricane season probability and number of named storms. (Image credit: NOAA)
The Atlantic basin experienced an active start to the hurricane season with five storms that have reached at least tropical storm strength, including one hurricane already. An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
Climate Factors Influencing Predictions
“The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Sea surface temperature departures from normal for August 10, 2023.Source: NOAA
Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so NOAA urges everyone to prepare now for the continuing season.
Activity should ramp up quickly in August and September, if this season follows the pattern for the last 100 years.
El Nino conditions are currently being observed and there is a greater than 95% chance that El Nino will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, according to the latest ENSO discussion from the Climate Prediction Center.
El Nino usually results in atmospheric conditions that help to lessen tropical activity during the Atlantic hurricane season. So far, those limiting conditions have been slow to develop.
Climate scientists forecast that the El-Nino associated impacts that limit tropical cyclone activity may not be in place for much of the remaining hurricane season.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center
A below-normal wind shear forecast, slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds and a near- or above-normal West African Monsoon were also key factors in shaping this updated seasonal forecast.
Five Storms Already
The Atlantic basin experienced a tropical storm in January which was unnamed. Since the start of the season, we have already experienced four other storms.
The 2023 Atlantic tropical cyclone names selected by the World Meteorological Organization. (Image credit: NOAA)
More About Hurricane Season Outlooks
NOAA’s hurricane outlooks are forecasts of overall season activity, not landfalls. A storm’s landfall is usually the result of mesoscale weather patterns and are typically predictable within roughly one week of a storm approaching a landmass.
In June, NOAA deployed a new model to help produce hurricane forecasts. The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System was put into operations on June 27 and will run alongside existing models for the 2023 season before replacing them as NOAA’s premier hurricane forecasting model.
NOAA urges everyone in vulnerable areas to have a well-thought-out hurricane plan and stay informed through official channels as this season progresses.
I bookmark the National Hurricane Center landing page and check it first thing every morning during the season. NHC expects no tropical activity in the Atlantic during the next seven days.
Reposted by Bob Rehak on 8/11/2023 from the National Hurricane Center
2073 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/20230811-IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-AUGUST-UPDATE-2023-Pie-081023-NOAA.jpg?fit=1100%2C680&ssl=16801100adminadmin2023-08-11 17:14:092023-09-10 17:20:34NOAA Increases 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
