The Kingwood Middle School reconstruction project is nearing completion. The new stormwater detention basins are complete, grassed in, and virtually fenced. The athletic fields have been laid out. And the track is under construction. The photos below show what the project looked like on 6/9/23.
The new KMS track and football field will go where the old school was. The detention pond, framed by trees, will help screen afternoon activities from neighbors.The pond already sports grass on the banks to retard erosion.Looking west toward Cedar Knolls.The detention basin gets an A for the most creative shape.Such basins do not have to look ugly.Lower angle shows that the basin will enhance the south entry and provide a restful look. The black wrought-iron fence looks gorgeous. And it will keep kids out of mischief.
Humble ISD has created an architectural gem in the new Kingwood Middle School. The District hopes to complete the project soon. The school itself opened in August 2022.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/9/2023
2110 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/20230609-DJI_0995.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2023-06-09 19:56:582023-06-09 19:56:59Kingwood Middle School Detention Ponds Complete, Athletic Fields Started
For a variety of reasons, many new developments seem to be “on pause” these days. Developers clear and grade land. Then it may sit undeveloped for months or even years.
This leaves exposed soil unprotected by vegetation. That makes it more susceptible to erosion for longer periods. And the eroded soil can clog streams and creeks with excess sediment. That reduces conveyance and can contribute to potential flooding. The EPA classifies sediment as the most common pollutant in American rivers and streams.
I am not alleging that all of the developments below have flooded other properties – though some have. But in extreme storms, they may contribute to conditions that increase flood risk.
That raises the question: Can we reduce that risk? That, of course, requires understanding what’s slowing development. But let me show you some examples of stalled developments first.
Unprotected Soil
No one keeps statistics on how long cleared land remains undeveloped. But suddenly, it feels as though stalled developments surround us. Below are pictures of just a handful taken in the last few months near the Montgomery/Harris County border.
Royal Pines in Porter
Royal Pines in Montgomery County on White Oak Creek has flooded neighbors’ properties multiple times in the last six months. White Oak Creek actually rerouted itself across a portion of the development.Royal Pines border with White Oak Creek (in woods). Note sediment escaping propertyinto creek.After a 4-inch rain in January, White Oak Creek branched and started flowing across the cleared area.Truck of Royal Pines neighbor one day after being washed.Flooding isn’t the only problem.
The neighbor stated that she spoke with the MoCo Engineers’ office last Friday and the stormwater detention plan still had not been approved. According to the neighbor, the developer was told by the county last January to submit revised detention and berm plans. The engineer also requested the developer to divert the runoff away from the neighbor’s property. But the developer evidently went ahead and built a detention basin without revising the plans. The development still floods neighbors’ property after every appreciable rain.
New trailer park development in NW Harris County is sending sediment into the headwaters of Spring Creek. See below.
As you approach the creek, the slope increases…
…and despite the best efforts of the developer, sediment is escaping into the creek.A river of mud……is flowing into Spring Creek.
Townsen Landing in Humble
A small part of Townsen Landing in Humble. The developer cleared land, but no homes have been built in the last year.
Valley Ranch in New Caney/Porter
Valley Ranch Medical Center construction in November 202120 months later they were building detention basins and channels to connect them. In March 2023, uncontrolled runoff was sending sediment into a ditch behind homes and businesses along FM1314.
Multiple Reasons for Development Delays
To do something about development delays, you need to understand the causes first. Those most often cited by developers and media have to do with:
Regulations. For instance, Magnolia officials enacted a moratorium on permit applications in December 2022 over concerns the city’s water supply couldn’t keep pace with growth in the area. The moratorium impacts new as well as current development projects.
Developers rank permitting delays as one of their biggest headaches.
Increasing land prices push developers into marginal, flood-prone land as a way to help control costs. But such land also causes permitting delays. Developers struggle with extra layers of studies and approvals from flood plain managers that can slow projects.
Rising interest rates that may undermine developers/builders economic assumptions.
Shortages of building materials. For instance, a global cement shortage, often linked to the war in Ukraine, makes planning difficult for land developers and road builders. According to a source at the Houston Contractors Association, Texas pours more concrete annually than the next two states (CA and FL) combined.
The pandemic, which led to other supply and labor shortages.
Such issues often loom larger for less experienced developers whose pockets may not be as deep as their more experienced competitors.
Regardless, silt fences are woefully inadequate in dealing with issues such as these.
Need to Re-Evaluate Construction and Permitting Practices
Some suggestions. Many areas do not require a permit to clear and grade land. Developers may begin the process assuming normal permitting time for their plans, but then run into unforeseen hiccups. As regulations have gotten more complex in the post-Harvey world, this has become increasingly common. Perhaps we need to require:
Permit approvals before clearing and grading.
Vegetated buffers around the perimeter of properties during development.
Berms to protect neighbors and waterways during development
Clearing and installing drainage in a portion of a property before moving onto another portion of the property (phased development).
Governments throughout the region to standardize construction requirements.
Governments to hire enough people to review plans a timely way.
Some or all of the above.
Other ideas suggested by readers:
Do not develop on land not suited for development in the first place.
Stop developing so close to waterways.
Zone land to allow natural drainage to exist in harmony with human occupancy.
Keep some areas prone to flooding heavily vegetated permanently.
Half Billion Dollars for Sediment Removal
Sound expensive? Consider this.
Since Harvey, we have spent/plan to spend approximately a half billion dollars on dredging and sediment removal. Half of that has been spent on the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto, plus channels/streams around Lake Houston. The other half will be spent on sediment removal in:
Willow Creek
White Oak Bayou
Spring Creek
Little Cypress Creek
Greens Bayou
Cypress Creek
Barker Reservoir
Addicks Reservoir
We must find a compromise that works for everyone. People need places to live. Especially places that don’t flood.
Posted by Bob Rehakon June 7, 2023
2108 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/20221006-DJI_0849.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2023-06-07 19:53:512023-06-11 13:21:23How Development Delays Can Impact Flooding
On June 6, 2023, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) recommended to Commissioners Court a flood-mitigation and disaster-relief project list totaling $825 million. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) allocated the funds to Harris County via the Texas General Land Office (GLO). The projects will require another $145 million in local-match funds from the 2018 Flood Bond. Thus, the projects are worth close to a billion dollars.
Commissioners Court unanimously approved the project list with little discussion. Each precinct will receive a relatively equal amount of projects and funding, according to Commissioner Ramsey.
Racial composition of areas receiving mitigation benefits.
HUD normally gives priority to projects that help minority and low-income areas. However, the two major buckets have different LMI requirements. They also have different deadlines.
HCFCD must spend 100% of the Disaster-Relief (DR) funds by August 2026. And they must benefit areas where 70% of the residents qualify as LMI (below the average income for the region).
The Mitigation funds have more time and a 50% LMI requirement. No less than 50% of the $750,000,000 – from which the $502.5 is carved – must be expended by January 12, 2027, with the full balance expended by January 12, 2032.
So the DR funds have more urgency attached to them and that list includes projects closest to “construction ready.”
Reason for Backup Projects
According to HCFCD, the project list will likely evolve based on review by GLO, project schedules and project costs. Budgets are estimates based upon today’s dollars. They will change as projects advance.
Fatal flaws may also become visible as projects advance toward construction. So, HCFCD requested and received permission to substitute alternate projects as needed if the intended projects become non-viable.
1 Recommended, 1 Alternate Project in Lake Houston Area
The “recommended” list includes one primary project in the Lake Houston Area: Taylor Gully Improvements.
The project list does not include information on how much these projects would contribute to flood reduction – either locally or downstream. However, HCFCD expects to post that information to its website before the projects go to the GLO for approval in the coming months.
Partnership-Funding Gap Affected
Likewise, HCFCD did not include with this list an estimate of how much it would affect the partner-funding gap.
Some time ago, HCFCD projected that it could finish all the projects in the flood bond using a combination of:
But to finish all the projects in the Flood Bond, HCFCD “phased” some projects. It knew it wouldn’t have enough money to complete 100% of some large projects. So, several phases might have been included and others deferred.
It appears that several projects on today’s list include some deferred phases. So the “partner-funding gap” may not be reduced as much as originally thought. Net: HCFCD may or may not have to look for additional funds. The District expects it will know more after GLO approves the list.
HCFCD must also come back to Commissioners Court by July 18 with an estimate for ongoing maintenance and land management costs for all the projects.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/6/2023
2107 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Project-Recs.jpg?fit=1200%2C765&ssl=17651200adminadmin2023-06-06 19:32:252023-06-19 14:01:42Harris County Approves $825 Million Flood-Mitigation Project List For HUD/GLO Funds
Harris County Flood Control District’s (HCFCD) Woodridge Village Excavation and Removal contract for 500,000 cubic yards with Sprint Sand & Clay is almost one-quarter complete. Sprint excavated approximately another 9,000 cubic yards in May (5.8 acre feet). That’s almost double the monthly minimum and brings the total up to 123,882 cubic yards.
Stormwater from Woodridge Village flooded hundreds of homes twice in 2019. The excavation will provide additional stormwater detention capacity to reduce flood risk downstream in the future.
May/June Photos Show Progress
The first two photos below were taken at the beginning of May and June 2023.
Looking ENE. Extent of excavation on May 2, 2023Looking ENE. Extent of Excavation on June 4, 2023
Up until now, Sprint has been excavating from west to east. Now, they seem to be excavating primarily from south to north.
HCFCD spokesperson Amy Crouser said that, “Essentially, the contractor is free to excavate where they want within the provided footprint.”
Looking east across new focus of excavation.
Where Does Woodridge Village Excavation Go From Here?
Sprint has excavated 76.8 acre feet so far. That brings the current detention capacity (old plus new) to 348 acre feet. That’s 90% of what Woodridge Village needs to meet Atlas-14 requirements.
If Sprint keeps excavating at the current rate, it could reach Atlas-14 requirements before the end of the year.
Here’s how all that looks in a table.
Acre Feetof Stormwater Detention
% of Ultimate
Site Had When Purchased from Perry Homes
271
47%
Has as of 6/4/23
348
60%
Atlas 14 Requires
385
66%
If Sprint Excavates All 500K Cubic Feet
580
100%
Calculations based on original construction plans, HCFCD monthly reports, Atlas-14 Requirements and Sprint contract.
Sprint’s contract calls for excavating UP TO 500,000 cubic yards. Any excavation beyond Atlas-14 needs would create a safety hedge against future needs should they increase.
Sprint will make only $1,000 from its Woodridge Village excavation contract, but will make its profit by selling the dirt at market rates. It’s a good deal for taxpayers, but carries some uncertainty with it.
A lot of flexibility exists for both parties in an E&R contract. If the demand for dirt dries up and excavation slows, HCFCD and Sprint could modify the E&R contract to complete a smaller detention basin sooner. But I assume it would still meet Atlas 14 requirements at a minimum.
But simply excavating the dirt isn’t the end of the job. Harris County still needs to slope the sides, plant grass, and tie the new basin into the site’s existing stormwater-detention-basin network.
HCFCD and Harris County Purchasing are currently evaluating consultants’ bids to draw up the final construction plans.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/5/2023
2106 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/20230604-DJI_0952.jpg?fit=1200%2C799&ssl=17991200adminadmin2023-06-05 14:19:222023-06-05 14:44:31In May, Woodridge Village Excavation Total Reached Almost 124,000 Cubic Yards
Harris County reports obtained by investigative journalist Wayne Dolcefino and shared with ReduceFlooding.com raise serious concerns about the integrity of the 2022 election. A video released by Dolcefino on 6/1/23 summarized some of the problems:
More than 100 polling locations turned people away.
119 polling locations did not open on time.
64 polling locations closed early.
62 polling locations ran out of ballot paper.
“The release of these documents details a horrific story of incompetence,” said Dolcefino.
And that was in an election where…
Just two votes per hour per precinct could have changed the outcome.
Dolcefino and Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale filed a lawsuit months ago to force transparency in election day communications after Judge Hidalgo and County Attorney Christian Menefee denied them the right to see public records relating to the election.
However, two spreadsheets that Dolcefino did obtain from Harris County detail issues reported by election judges and alternate judges at all 783 polling places.
The survey of judges and alternates produces a chilling picture of Election Day chaos.
The surveys were evidently conducted by the Harris County Election Administrator’s office. Why the County released these particular documents, but denied others, is a mystery.
Additional Analysis Reveals More Concerns
Regardless, additional analysis of the surveys revealed even more problems. They are widespread and affect both Democrats and Republicans.
I found that:
40% encountered one or more problems serious enough to discourage voting.
Surveys of precinct judges and alternates
To arrive at that percentage, I combined responses from both surveys. Then I subtracted all precincts where the judges reported NO problems or problems not serious enough to cause people to leave in frustration. That left 631 responses out of a total of 1566.
The most common problems included malfunctioning technology that could have contributed to long wait times.
Even though many locations ran out of ballot paper, others reported having far too much.
Some precincts shared ballot paper. Others were told they could not share.
Two-thirds of the judges and alternate judges reporting ballot-paper shortages were Republicans (88 out of 130).
Foster Elementary on 11/8/22. I interviewed several angry voters here. They complained about printing/scanning problems. During the time I was there, the line barely moved and no officials told voters they could vote at other nearby precincts.
Survey Comments Reveal Causes of Chaos
Diving down into the explanatory comments provided a more detailed image of what many might describe as chaos. Judges and alternates reported:
Turning away as many as 200 voters.
Running out of paper for 8 hours. Then getting a delivery 10 minutes before the poll closed. Or even after the poll closed.
Being “put on hold for hours” when requesting more paper.
Having to shut down the polling place because of lack of paper.
Some locations loaned extra paper to other locations; but others said they were not allowed to share surplus paper.
Long lines.
Machines breaking down and not being replaced despite multiple requests.
Paper jams.
Scanners shredding ballots.
Not enough scanners and scanners not working at many locations.
Being short-staffed.
Unqualified, combative workers with behavioral issues who were hostile to voters.
Not getting through on the help line.
Poor training that left workers unprepared.
One location had only six parking spots for voters.
Ballots printing twice.
No clerks, no keys to turn systems on, no one told them to set up the night before.
No signs identifying the polling location as a polling location.
Not receiving the notice of the court order to stay open an extra hour until after the location had already shut down.
The court order resulted from many locations opening late because of the other issues cited above.
Overall, both Democrat and Republican judges and alternate judges reported so many problems that they often couldn’t get through to the Election Administrator’s office to ask for help. Some were put on hold for hours.
Although Republican judges experienced more ballot-paper shortages, overall Democrats were as as likely to cite serious problems when considering all issues.
Uncertain Impact of Most Common Problems
The most common problems included malfunctioning technology, late opening, early closing, ballot paper shortages, and not getting help in a timely way.
They all added up to long lines and delays that can discourage people from voting. No one knows exactly how many voters:
Were turned away when machines broke down for hours.
Left in frustration after waiting in long lines that didn’t move.
Showed up at polling places that opened late or closed early.
Voted at an alternate location or just gave up and didn’t vote.
Complaints About the Workers
Another spreadsheet obtained from a separate source reviewed the performance of election personnel. It noted problems such as:
Refusing to process voters during the court-ordered additional hour of voting
Leaving the location without reporting numbers
Sexual harassment, flirting
Sleeping on the job
Not offering voters provisional ballots
Making racist comments
Rude, disrespectful behavior
Threatening to blow people up
Insight of Experienced Poll Judge
I asked one of the most experienced poll judges in Harris County to put these problems in perspective. Compared to previous elections, she rated the 2022 election much more problematic. Elections happen infrequently and, therefore, are staffed by large numbers of volunteers. But this year, she said, the county:
Supplemented the volunteers with laborers hired from temp agencies.
Introduced complicated new technology.
Allowed online training, which is less effective.
Eliminated many checks and balances.
Hired a new election administrator, unfamiliar with the area, just months before the election.
“You can’t make this complicated,” she emphasized. But the county did exactly that.
Unanswered Questions
The poll judge above also raised other questions not addressed by the newly released documents. For instance…
Provisional Voting
Provisional balloting, which happened during the extra hour between 7 and 8PM, takes a lot of time and requires special training and supplies. She suspected many polling places were not equipped to handle it. She also said…
Provisional voting drives voters away because they are told their vote might not count.
Poll Judge
The Election Reconciliation Report on HarrisVotes.com shows that during normal hours, people voted at the rate of more than 91,000 per hour. But during that extra hour, only 6,302 provisional ballots were submitted, and only 4,333 were counted. The voting rate fell off by more than 20X.
Did people just not hear about the extra hour? Had they already voted? Or were they deterred by the process? And why were thousands disqualified? We’ll never know.
Paper Shortages
Other questions: Did the ballot paper shortages relate to the length of the ballot? Were some precincts intentionally shortchanged? Or did untrained people picking up/distributing the paper just not know how much they needed? Again, we’ll never know.
But thousands of people waited in long lines while millions of sheets of ballot paper sat in a warehouse.
Mail In
Finally, what about mail-in ballots? We have no information about those except for the county’s reconciliation report. I know some people who requested mail-in ballots but never received them. Were they lost in the post office or never mailed?
The reported numbers don’t even add up. Approximately:
81,000 were sent out
26,000 were not returned by the voter or surrendered (returned when people decide to vote in person instead)
That should leave about 55,000 people who voted by mail.
But the county reported 64,259 who voted by mail.
And of those:
2,672 were rejected for unknown reasons
Only 61,264 went into the official count.
That’s a lot of unexplained rejections.
But explanations will not be forthcoming any time soon. Judge Hidalgo and Christian Menefee are fighting to keep election information secret.
Legislative Changes to Elections Office? NOT!
New Harris County Interim Administrator Diana Ramirez is reportedly considering restructuring the entire county government to expand equity. That includes implementing new elections mandates for Harris County. For instance, SB1750 would abolish the office of Elections Administrator in Harris County. The bill would transfer election functions back to the County Clerk and Tax Assessor Collector. SB 1750 has passed both houses and awaits the Governor’s signature.
Ramirez’ office is already planning the transition. One scenario under consideration is simply having Cliff Tatum, the current election administrator, report to the Clerk. It would appear that Harris County is stuck with Tatum and his team for now.
Is County Judge Lina Hidalgo considering keeping Tatum to keep a lid on more damning revelations about the 2022 election? That’s another question we will likely never know the answer to as Hidalgo fights – with taxpayer dollars – to keep her emails regarding election problems a secret.
1% vs. 40%
The record shows that Lina Hidalgo beat Alexandra Mealor in 2022 by 50.82% to 49.15%. The difference was a margin of 18,183 votes or a little more than 1% when 40% of the polling places experienced problems.
Just 23 ballots per precinct – 2 per hour – could have resulted in a different outcome.
Considering the sentiments of voters I interviewed at Foster Elementary in Kingwood (see picture above), it’s not hard to imagine three voters per hour dropping out of the line while waiting in the hot sun. Those frustrations could have easily made a difference in the outcome.
And that doesn’t even include the drop-off in voting during the provisional hour or the huge amount of mail-in ballots that were not returned or disqualified – more than 22,000!
But it looks like we’ll have Hidalgo for another four years. Her management skills have left their mark on one Harris County department after another. For instance, Flood Control has had four leaders in two years. And that’s why you’re reading about an election in a flood blog.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/3/2023
2104 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
According to the National Hurricane Center, a tropical depression has formed in the northeast Gulf of Mexico on this, the first day or hurricane season. The NHC gave the storm only a 10% chance of formation just two days ago. They upped that to 50% this morning. This afternoon, it turned into a tropical depression and should turn into a tropical storm by this evening.
Source: National Hurricane Center, Thursday June 1, 2023 at 4PM.
There is NO threat to the Texas coast and NO impacts are currently expected across the Texas coastal waters.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
A USAF mission this afternoon along with coastal radars and ship/platform/buoy data indicate that the elongated area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has become defined enough to be declared a tropical depression.
The plane found current wind speeds of 35mph. A tropical depression becomes a tropical storm when winds reach 39 – 73 mph.
WSW/SW upper-level winds are currently shearing the storm. Nearly all of the heavy weather is located to the north and northeast of the circulation.
Convection has been moderate today, but heavy thunderstorms near the center are possible tonight into early Friday.
The tropical depression is meandering over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, but will begin a slow southward motion on Friday and into the weekend as the depression becomes influenced by the western portion of a trough over the western Atlantic.
This is an unusual steering pattern over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The more typical easterly or southerly steering patterns are not yet fully in place. Mid-latitude influences are still reaching well into the Gulf of Mexico. The depression will continue southward into the weekend.
Intensity Forecast
The system could gain modest organization before much stronger WNW/NW upper level winds impact the system late Friday into the weekend.
The depression could attain minimal tropical storm intensity by 8PM eastern time. However, beyond Friday, upper level winds will become increasingly hostile. The system will eventually dissipate over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, according to Lindner.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/image001.png?fit=897%2C736&ssl=1736897adminadmin2023-06-01 16:36:132023-06-01 16:36:14Tropical Depression 2 on Day 1 of Hurricane Season
The definition of “Waters of the U.S.” (WOTUS) is changing again thanks to a new ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court. It could put half of the nation’s wetlands in peril and that could significantly affect flooding.
The Ping-Pong Match over Wetland Protection
I first started covering the definition of WOTUS in January of this year in a story about Biden’s changes to Trump’s changes to Obama’s changes.
The WOTUS definition defines the areas subject to EPA clean water regulations. At issue: How far up in the branching structure of a river may the government enforce regulations? As far as it’s navigable? One level up from that? Two? Three? Infinitely?
Clarity is a good thing. But the last time I looked up WOTUS, the definition stretched for more than 100-pages. It has changed numerous times since 2015. And different government agencies follow different definitions. Complexity, change, ambiguity and conflict now give bureaucrats and developers almost unlimited power to interpret definitions as they see fit.
Local Example of Damage
For instance, when the developers of Woodridge Village clearcut their property, filled in wetlands and sent tons of sludge down Taylor Gully into Lake Houston, the question became “Were they acting legally?” The developer found no wetlands on their property even though wetlands were clearly indicated on the USGS National Wetlands Inventory.
Complaints piled into the EPA and Army Corps of Engineers. The Corps found that, even though the property contained wetlands, the wetlands lay outside the jurisdiction of the Corps to regulate.
Resident examines massive erosion on Woodridge Village flowing down Taylor Gully into Lake Houstonin 2019.
Bureaucratic Overreach?
The Trump-era definition, finalized in 2020, was long sought by developers who complained about federal overreach. They said the WOTUS definition stretched into gullies, creeks and wetlands on private property.
But Biden reversed the Trump definition and now the US Supreme Court has reversed the Biden definition. That makes the fourth time the rules have been reversed since 2015. Worse, the EPA and Corps use overlapping, but different rules.
And as far as I can tell, the limit of regulation does not vary with the magnitude of violation, a serious flaw in my opinion.
NYT Article Puts Most Recent Changes in Perspective
A New York Times essay by Jim Murphy of the National Wildlife Federation summarized the most recent changes. Says Murphy, “The Environmental Protection Agency has long interpreted the Clean Water Act as protecting most of the nation’s wetlands from pollution. But now the court has significantly limited the reach of the law…”
The Court’s new definition hinges on the wetlands having “a continuous surface connection” to bodies of water such as streams, rivers, lakes and oceans. At least half of the nation’s wetlands could lose protection under this ruling, which provides an even narrower definition of “protected waters” than the Trump administration had sought, according to Murphy.
Congress has long failed to clarify language in the Clean Water Act that caused confusion among judges and put the law in the Supreme Court’s cross hairs.
Wetlands are nature’s sponges. They act as natural detention basins that hold back stormwaters and that has a direct impact on flooding.
Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who filed a concurring opinion in the judgment, acknowledged its impact, writing that it would have “significant repercussions for water quality and flood control throughout the United States.”
How Revised Definition Could Affect Local Development
Need an example. Look no further than the Colony Ridge development in Liberty County, where the developer is filling in and paving over wetlands…some immediately adjacent to wetland mitigation banks.
Colony Ridge WetlandsColony Ridge wetlands being drained for development.
Many residents in adjoining communities such as Plum Grove and Huffman have complained bitterly about worsening flooding in their areas, which they attribute to such development practices.
I hope Congress can finally find a workable definition of WOTUS that protects public safety while allowing responsible development. The constantly changing definitions of WOTUS help no one.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/31/23
2101 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Wetlands-Mapper-Highlighted.jpg?fit=1200%2C565&ssl=15651200adminadmin2023-05-31 11:48:022023-05-31 12:01:02How a Controversial, Little Understood Definition Affects Flooding
Hurricane season starts this week. Offsetting factors, some of which would call for an above-normal hurricane season and others of which would call for a below-normal season, led forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center to split the difference in their seasonal outlook.
They are giving almost equal probabilities to average, above-average, and below-average seasons. But average gets a slight edge. See below.
NOAA predicts 12 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.
2023 Hurricane Season Names
Below is a list of storm names for this hurricane season.
Source: National Hurricane Center
Competing Factors Make Forecast Difficult
Competing factors both suppress and encourage storm formation.
The last two factors have produced more active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, according to NOAA.
New Policies, Models, Technologies Will Improve Future Forecasts
To improve forecasts, NOAA is adopting new policies, forecasting models and technologies this year. Improvements include:
In late June, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) will become operational. HAFS will become NOAA’s primary hurricane model. Compared to previous models, it improves track forecasts 10-15%.
A Probabilistic Storm Surge model upgrade gives forecasters the ability to run the model for two storms simultaneously.
The National Hurricane Center’s Tropical Weather Outlook graphics will expand the forecast range from five to seven days.
Over the last 10 years, flooding from tropical rainfall was the single deadliest hazard. To give communities more time to prepare, the Weather Prediction Center is also extending the Excessive Rainfall Outlook two days. It will now provide forecasts up to five days in advance. The outlook shows general areas at risk for flash flooding due to excessive rainfall.
The National Weather Service will unveil a new generation of forecast flood inundation mapping for portions of Texas in September 2023. These maps will show the extent of flooding at the street level.
Upgrades to the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean buoy array will provide new capabilities, updated instruments, more strategic placement of buoys, and more detailed observations.
NOAA emphasizes that its hurricane forecast is not a landfall forecast. Many storms die at sea and never reach land.
Peak of Season Still Three Months Away, But…
The Climate Prediction Center will update the 2023 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.
And minutes after I first posted this story, the National Hurricane Center issued this 7-day outlook. It shows a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf of Mexico trying to get organized. But the chances of tropical formation are slim: 10% in the next two days and 20% in the next seven.
So remain alert and prepared.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/30/2023
2100 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/IMAGE-Hurricane-Outlook-May-2023-Pie-052422-NOAA.jpg?fit=856%2C529&ssl=1529856adminadmin2023-05-30 12:00:152023-05-30 14:26:59NHC Predicts Near Normal Hurricane Season
It excels at generating high-level summaries of issues. And it allows you to drill down somewhat to explore different aspects of topics. But as you get more specific, it can also give you erroneous information. Here’s an example.
The Texas General Land Office has been in the headlines ever since Harvey. So I asked ChatGPT…
Q: What role does the Texas General Land Office play in reducing flooding?
ChatGPT Answered: “The Texas General Land Office (GLO) plays a crucial role in reducing flooding and managing flood-related issues in the state of Texas. The GLO has several responsibilities and initiatives aimed at mitigating flood risks and enhancing resilience. Here are some key roles and activities of the Texas General Land Office in flood reduction:
Disaster Recovery and Mitigation: The GLO oversees disaster recovery efforts and manages federal funds allocated for disaster mitigation in Texas, including those related to flooding. The GLO administers programs and provides financial assistance to local communities for flood mitigation projects, infrastructure improvements, and floodplain management initiatives.
Floodplain Management: The GLO supports and promotes effective floodplain management practices in Texas. It works with local governments, communities, and stakeholders to develop and implement floodplain regulations, zoning ordinances, and floodplain mapping to guide development and reduce flood risks.
Texas Coastal Resiliency Master Plan: The GLO is involved in developing and implementing the Texas Coastal Resiliency Master Plan, which focuses on addressing flood risks, coastal erosion, and storm surge impacts along the Texas coast. The plan includes strategies for enhancing flood protection, preserving coastal ecosystems, and promoting sustainable development practices.
Coastal Barrier System: The GLO is responsible for managing the Texas Coastal Barrier System, which includes the construction and maintenance of levees, floodgates, and other infrastructure to protect coastal communities from storm surge and flooding. This system aims to reduce the vulnerability of populated areas along the Texas coast to hurricane-related flooding.
Grant Programs and Funding: The GLO administers various grant programs to provide funding assistance for flood-related projects. This includes programs such as the Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF), Community Development Block Grants (CDBG), and Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) programs, which offer financial support for flood mitigation, infrastructure improvements, and post-disaster recovery.
Outreach and Education: The GLO conducts outreach and educational initiatives to raise awareness about flood risks, floodplain management, and resilience strategies. It provides resources, guidance, and training to local communities, property owners, and stakeholders to promote flood awareness and preparedness.
Coordination with Stakeholders: The GLO collaborates with federal, state, and local agencies, as well as community organizations, non-profits, and stakeholders involved in flood management and mitigation. This includes coordinating efforts, sharing information, and facilitating partnerships to enhance flood reduction strategies and improve coordination during flood events.
The Texas General Land Office’s efforts in flood reduction are aimed at safeguarding communities, protecting natural resources, and enhancing the state’s resilience to flooding and other related hazards. By supporting mitigation projects, implementing floodplain management strategies, and facilitating recovery and funding assistance, the GLO plays a critical role in reducing flood risks and promoting sustainable development in Texas.
End of ChatGPT Response
GLO Asked to Evaluate ChatGPT Response
That sounded a bit off to me. So I asked a GLO employee in public affairs to:
Give the response a letter grade from A-F
Evaluate the accuracy of the response
Identify any critical errors or omissions.
GLO Response Reveals Some Misses
My GLO source responded almost immediately. I’ll start with her conclusion. She said, “Luckily, I don’t fear losing my job to AI yet after reading this. 😊”
Then she explained some of the problems:
“I would say FEMA does floodplain management strategies more than the GLO,” she said. “However, FEMA data about floodplains is used by HUD to develop rules for grants.” Note that the GLO is the primary vehicle for distributing HUD funds in Texas.
“As for the Coastal Barrier System,” she continued, “that is tricky. We are the state sponsor, but there are many partners, so I am not sure if the word “managing” is correct or not.”
“This one is the most incorrect:
Grant Programs and Funding: The GLO administers various grant programs to provide funding assistance for flood-related projects. This includes programs such as the Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF), Community Development Block Grants (CDBG), and Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) programs, which offer financial support for flood mitigation, infrastructure improvements, and post-disaster recovery.
“Flood Infrastructure Fund (FIF) and Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) are Texas Water Development Board programs, not GLO’s. GLO does CDBG-DR and CDBG-MIT grants, which are used to address unmet housing needs (DR) and flood mitigation projects (MIT), but we do not do CDBG funds, which are annual entitlement funds from HUD and very different.
“The biggest glaring error is there is no mention of housing recovery or helping homeowners. I won’t fail ChatGPT, but it definitely requires editing and oversight.”
ChatGPT Hits Some Walls
In addition to errors like those above, sometimes ChatGPT just plain hits a wall and refuses to provide answers. For instance, it:
Currently contains no information past 2021. That limits its usefulness when seeking information about current events. It also limits usefulness for people in certain professions, such as news reporting.
Refuses to address personal or reputation issues.
Can’t provide answers to specific questions that require professional expertise. For instance, I tried to get ChatGPT to quantify the relative effectiveness of various flood control techniques. It responded that it depended on local conditions and suggested hiring a professional engineer. In fairness, that’s a good answer. But it does acknowledge the limits of the program.
Didn’t acknowledge the existence of ReduceFlooding.com, saying “it could be fictional or newly established” when I asked “What is ReduceFlooding.com?” However, Google ranks ReduceFlooding.com #6 in the world when asked “How do I reduce flooding?” In contrast, the Harris County Flood Control District’s website showed up at #26.
Putting ChatGPT in Perspective
ChatGPT is an impressive tool. But it’s only one tool in the tool box. You wouldn’t use a saw when you needed a hammer. Understand the best uses of ChatGPT, such as providing high-level outlines or introductions to topics, and you won’t be disappointed.
In short, it’s part of the answer, but not the answer. And as they say on every airplane before takeoff, “cross-check and verify all the doors.”
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/29/23
2099 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
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Second in a series on ChatGPT and Flood-Mitigation Recommendations
Yesterday, I posted ChatGPT’s recommendations on the most effective techniques for flood control. The artificial-intelligence research tool compiled an impressive list, later validated by experts in the field. But they all said the recommendations were high-level. So I conducted another test in which I drilled down into various aspects of the topic.
Q. “What are best management practices in construction that help reduce flooding?”
A. “Implementing best management practices (BMPs) in construction can help minimize the impact of construction activities on stormwater runoff and reduce the risk of flooding. Here are some key BMPs commonly used to address stormwater management and flood reduction in construction:
Sediment and Erosion Control: Implementing measures to prevent sediment and erosion is crucial in construction sites. This includes installing erosion control devices such as sediment barriers, silt fences, and sediment basins. These structures help contain sediment on-site and prevent it from entering stormwater runoff, which can clog drainage systems and contribute to downstream flooding.
Stormwater Management Plans: Developing and following a comprehensive stormwater management plan is essential. It should include strategies for capturing and controlling stormwater runoff during construction activities. This may involve installing sediment traps, using sediment filter socks, or utilizing temporary or permanent stormwater detention ponds to reduce peak flows and prevent flooding downstream.
Site Grading and Drainage Design: Proper site grading and drainage design are critical to direct stormwater runoff away from vulnerable areas and into appropriate stormwater management facilities. By creating well-designed swales, channels, and berms, water can be efficiently directed to detention ponds or other retention structures, reducing the risk of localized flooding.
Use of Best Construction Practices: Employing construction practices that minimize soil disturbance and protect natural drainage patterns can help prevent excessive runoff and erosion. This includes avoiding excessive clearing, preserving existing vegetation where possible, and using construction techniques that minimize soil compaction.
Stabilization of Disturbed Areas: Prompt stabilization of disturbed areas is crucial to minimize erosion and sediment runoff. Implementing erosion control measures such as mulching, revegetation, or the use of erosion control blankets can help stabilize exposed soil and reduce the potential for sediment runoff into stormwater systems.
Construction Site Runoff Control: Managing and treating construction site runoff is important to prevent contaminants from entering water bodies and exacerbating flood risks. Utilizing sediment traps, sediment basins, or construction site sediment filters can help remove sediment and pollutants from runoff before it is discharged into waterways.
Education and Training: Providing education and training to construction site workers on proper stormwater management practices and BMP implementation is vital. This helps ensure that everyone involved in the construction process understands the importance of controlling runoff and minimizing flood risks.
Regular Inspection and Maintenance: Regularly inspecting and maintaining stormwater management structures and erosion control measures is crucial to their effectiveness. Sediment traps, erosion control devices, and stormwater management facilities should be inspected, cleaned, and repaired as necessary to ensure they function properly and continue to reduce flood risks.
By incorporating these best management practices into construction activities, the potential for erosion, sediment runoff, and localized flooding can be significantly reduced. It is important for construction projects to comply with local regulations and guidelines related to stormwater management and flood control to ensure effective implementation of these practices.”
Experience Shows Value of Recommendations
Wow! It provides a good summary – without days of research of construction regulations in thousands of jurisdictions across the county.
I’ve documented numerous instances of what happens to neighbors when contractors do NOT follow these BMPs.
There was the case of Woodridge Village, the aborted Perry Homes development in Montgomery County at the headwaters of Taylor Gully. Workers there violated virtually every one of those recommendations and up to 600 neighboring families paid the price. They flooded twice in a matter of months. Perry, its subsidiaries and contractors wound up offering a substantial settlement to the flooded families to compensate them for damages.
And just blocks away, a 200+ acre development called Royal Pines made many of the same mistakes. Royal Pines didn’t flood as many neighbors, but it flooded them more often – twice in one month last last year and then again more recently.
Use ChatGPT to Drill Down Quickly
As with yesterday’s post about the “most effective techniques to reduce flooding,” the question about construction BMPs yielded fairly high level results within seconds.
This illustrates one of the most important aspects of using ChatGPT: DRILL DOWN into subjects. Don’t just take the first answer you get.
For instance, ask variations on the original question. Example: When you ask, “What are the consequences for flood control of NOT following construction BMPs,” you find information about:
Increased erosion that can clog water bodies and increase the risk of flooding
Stormwater runoff pollution that can degrade water quality clog drainage systems
Reduced infiltration capacity that increases stormwater runoff and flood risk
Inadequate stormwater management leading to inadequate storage and conveyance capacity
Legal and financial consequences
Explore Different Aspects of Topic
You can also drill down quickly to explore different aspectsof a topic. For instance, when I asked ChatGPT about “the most effective environmental solutions that reduced flooding,” it listed six more recommendations:
Natural Water Retention Measures
Reforestation and Afforestation
Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS)
River and Channel Restoration
Floodplain Management and Zoning
Climate Change Adaptation
I then drilled down on Sustainable Urban Drainage Design and found eight more recommendations including:
Permeable Surfaces
Green Roofs
Rain Gardens
Bioretention Systems
Detention and Retention Basins
Wetlands and Ponds
Water Harvesting: Systems
Education and Awareness
ChatGPT gave clear, concise explanations of each of these topics, plus a summary that put them all in perspective. I just didn’t list them here to keep the length of this post manageable.
Tomorrow in Part 3 of this series on ChatGPT, I’ll describe some of the limitations of this impressive research tool: What happens when it makes a mistake?
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/28/2023
2098 Days since Hurricane Harvey
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