Hurricane Season Above Average So Far
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center issues a monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary during hurricane season. For June 2023, it shows above normal tropical cyclone activity and and above normal accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for the North Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
#4 for Year and Counting
Three named tropical storms (Arlene, Bret, and Cindy) formed in the basin during June. The report also shows an unnamed storm in January, that in retrospect appears to have been tropical in strength.
Bret brought tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles, while Arlene and Cindy remained over open water and did not impact land.
So far, seasonal activity has been above average based on the 30-year climatology (1991-2020), where a named storm typically forms about once every year in June.
In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the basin so far in 2023 has also been above average compared to the long-term (1991-2020) mean.
Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the National Hurricane Center website.
Summary Table
Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
———————————————————–
Unnamed STS*
TS Arlene 1-3 Jun 40
TS Bret 19-24 Jun 70
TS Cindy 22-26 Jun 60
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* An unnamed subtropical storm formed in mid January. Exact dates and maximum winds will be provided once the post-storm analysis is complete.
As of this writing on 7/5/23, NHC predicts NO tropical storm activity anywhere in the Atlantic basin for the next seven days.
Predictions Vs. Actual
In May, both NHC and Colorado State University predicted that this tropical storm season would have about normal hurricane activity. Both sources cited conflicting trends as the basis for their predictions. We currently have above-normal sea-surface temperatures throughout most of the Atlantic basin. We also are now under the influence of an El Niño, which tends, in this latitude, to produce wind shear that discourages cyclone formation.
To improve predictions, NOAA has made a number of changes in reporting at the National Hurricane Center. They include new, improved models for hurricane forecasts and storm surge, longer-range hurricane outlooks, an excessive rainfall outlook, inundation mapping down to the street level, and improved data-collection technologies.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/5/2023
2136 Days since Hurricane Harvey
