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Woodridge Village Excavation Slows in July

During July 2023, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) contractor Sprint Sand and Clay, LLC, excavated 5,754 cubic yards from a new Woodridge Village stormwater detention basin. That brought Sprints’ grand total up to 135, 751 cubic yards.

5,764 cubic yards equals another 3.6 acre feet. The previous month, Sprint excavated 5 acre feet. So, excavation during July declined 28%. At the current rate, Sprint would take another 8 months to bring detention volume up to Atlas-14 requirements (see table below).

At the end of July, excavation had reached 92.6% of Atlas-14 requirements, up slightly from June, when it had reached 92%.

Why Atlas 14 is Important

Atlas-14 defines the current standard for safely containing a 100-year rainfall. The lack of detention basin capacity contributed to the flooding of hundreds of homes along Taylor Gully twice in 2019, after Perry contractors clearcut the property.

HCFCD and City of Houston purchased the property from Perry in March 2021. Excavation of additional stormwater detention capacity started in January 2022. At the time, it had only 70% of the required detention capacity under Atlas 14.

NOAA is already working on revising Atlas 14. Atlas 15 will incorporate predicted climate-change impacts and feature recurrence intervals up to 1000 years.

However, the good news is that Sprint’s contract could eventually take the site well beyond Atlas-14.

Before/After Photos Show July Progress

I took the first photo below on July 1, 2023.

Woodridge Village E&R as of July 1, 2023 — *Woodridge Village July 1, 2023, looking NE.*

I took the other photos below at the end of July.

*July 29, 2023*. *The big difference appears to be the area filled with water.*

The outline has changed little. But additional water in the absence of rain and the presence of blistering heat suggests excavation may have reached the water table.

During the month of July, when temperatures pushed a 100 degrees every day, the nearest gage received only 2 inches of rain. And most of that was three weeks before the photo above.

HCFCD often prefers wet bottom retention basins because they reduce mowing costs, but the design of this basin is not yet complete.

*Those circular patterns may indicate the use of scrapers to lower the bottom of the new basin gradually.*

*However, north (right) of the exposed water*, *contractors still seem to be using excavators to expand the edges of the area.*

Under HCFCD Excavation and Removal contracts, contractors are free to excavate where they want within the provided footprint.

Rough layout for new Woodridge basin. — *Green area indicates rough outline of new basin.*

Where Does Woodridge Village Excavation Go From Here?

HCFCD’s Excavation and Removal contract with Sprint Sand & Clay calls for excavating up to 500,000 cubic yards. Sprint excavated approximately 8,000 cubic yards (5 acre feet) in June.

Any excavation beyond Atlas-14 needs would create a safety hedge against future needs should they increase.

NOAA is already working on updating the Atlas 14 requirements and should release Atlas 15 before the end of this decade.

Here’s how the various stages look in a table.

	Acre Feet of Stormwater Detention	% of Atlas-14 Requirement	% of Ultimate
Site Had When Purchased from Perry Homes	271	70%	47%
Has as of 8/1/23	356.5	92.5%	61.5%
Atlas 14 Requires	385	100%	66%
If Sprint Excavates All 500K Cubic Feet	580	150%	100%

Calculations based on original construction plans, HCFCD monthly reports, Atlas-14 Requirements and Sprint contract. Sprint could excavate down to or even slightly past the small grove of trees in the top center.

Sprint will make only $1,000 from its Woodridge Village excavation contract with HCFCD, but will make its profit by selling the dirt at market rates. It’s a good deal for taxpayers, but carries some uncertainty with it.

If the demand for dirt dries up, excavation could slow or stop.

But simply excavating the dirt isn’t the end of the job. Harris County still needs to slope the sides, plant grass, and tie the new basin into the site’s existing stormwater-detention-basin network. Engineers are reportedly working on plans for all that, according to HCFCD.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/1/2023

2163 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Where to Find Reliable Climate Data

Where can you find reliable climate data if you want to cross check a claim you hear on the news? Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner referred me to two sites recently: The U.S. Drought Monitor and the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) website. To help produce these resources, NOAA has collaborated with universities and state climate offices around the country. They make invaluable, data-driven resources for fact checking, research and public-policy planners.

Is It This Hot Everywhere?

It feels as though the lead story on the evening news every night for last two months has been the extreme heat in Phoenix. Simultaneously, the Houston area has experienced extreme heat and humidity, and the resurgence of drought conditions. The news stories inevitably tie any departure from “normal” to “climate change” and blame it on the burning of fossil fuels – usually without citing the source of their information.

So, imagine my surprise when I explored the U.S. Drought Monitor for the week of 7/25/23 and discovered that areas to the north and east of Texas were wetter and cooler than normal. “Record-setting rains were recorded over western Kentucky and the area had significant flooding,” they said. And “Temperatures were cooler than normal over most of the central Plains, Midwest and Mid-Atlantic with departures of 2-4 degrees below normal widespread.”

*While the Southwest drought was accelerating last week in Texas, New Mexico and southern Arizona, it actually lessened/improved across a wide belt covering the middle of the country.*

Climate Is an Average of Cycles

While still at U.S. Drought Monitor, I looked up Texas droughts since 2000.

*Colors show the intensity of droughts and the time scale across the bottom shows their length and frequency.*

Note the gaps between droughts. Also note how the relatively light gap from 2015 to 2019 corresponds to the Tax Day, Memorial Day, Harvey and Imelda floods we had during that period.

The graph below measures departures from average annual precipitation for the upper Texas Coast. This graph goes back to 1895. So to compare it to the one above, focus on the far right. Notice the big dip (brown area) around 2010, then the green peak that corresponds to the flood years.

*128 years of precipitation data for the upper Texas Coast. Shows annual departures from (normal).* *From SCIPP.*

Note how the largest brown area corresponds to the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s. But also note how peaks follow valleys in cycles.

While still on the SCIPP web site, I found another drought tool that lets you look up precipitation by date over various time periods. It’s still not fully functional yet. So far, they only have data for Louisiana. But when I looked up data for July 23-29, it compared the same week going back to 1900. The numbers below are less important than the dates associated with them in the last two columns.

Note how virtually all of the wettest and driest weeks on record occurred more than 90 years ago, before the rise of the internal combustion engine.

*From SCIPP website “drought tool” page.* *Emphasis added.*

Also note that some of the wettest weeks on record for Louisiana occurred during those Dust Bowl years; Louisiana was not part of the Dust Bowl geographically.

Elsewhere on the SCIPP site, I found pages and tools that let you compare rainfall and temperature by year and month. Here’s where we are so far for 2023.

But look at 2017, the year of Hurricane Harvey. They needed to establish a totally new vertical scale for rainfall!

The last SCIPP chart that I’ll discuss shows the average temperatures; daily highs/lows; minimums and maximums for any given reporting station.

*NOAA defines “climate” as a 30-year moving average.*

SCIPP has dozens of other useful tools for students, fact checkers, and weather bugs to explore.

What Causes Drought/Flood Cycles?

Various factors influence drought/flood cycles. They include climatic, environmental, and geological elements. Cycles are often region-specific and caused by multiple factors. According to ChatGPT, primary causes include:

Climate variations, such as El Niño and La Niña
Ocean currents and temperatures
Atmospheric circulation patterns
Topography and geography, such as mountains, proximity to large bodies of water, etc.
Land use and vegetation changes, such as deforestation, urbanization, and agricultural practices (a major factor in the Dust Bowl years).
Natural disasters, such as hurricanes
Rainfall variability. Even absent climatic changes, certain regions naturally experience periods of higher or lower rainfall.
Climate change, caused not just by emissions but the shape of the Earth’s orbit and wobble in the Earth’s axis.

Specific causes and interactions of these factors can vary from region to region.

In some cases, multiple factors may coincide, leading to more severe and prolonged drought or flood events.

Beware of generalizations about climate change based on individual events, short time periods, and isolated locations.

Climate Disasters in Historical Context

Understanding these complexities is essential for better preparedness and mitigation strategies to minimize the impacts of such natural cycles.

Climate disasters have existed for thousands of years. Go to the Four Corners area and visit Chaco Canyon, Canyon de Chelly or Mesa Verde. A prolonged drought contributed to wiping out the Anasazi culture a thousand years ago.

Likewise, the Texas shoreline has been advancing and retreating for millions of years. Sea levels can rise or fall more than a hundred meters between glacial periods.

“Glacial periods last tens of thousands of years. Temperatures are much colder, and ice covers more of the planet. On the other hand, interglacial periods last only a few thousand years and the climate conditions are similar to those on Earth today. We are in an interglacial period right now,” according to the American Museum of Natural History.

Sea levels can rise or fall more than a hundred meters between glacial cycles, which have existed for billions of years.

So when you hear the relentless drumbeat of “climate change” every day without data to back it up, now you know how to check whether the reporters did their homework.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/31/2023

2062 Days since Hurricane Harvey

More People Live in Texas Floodplains than Live in 30 States

According to Texas Water Development Board data compiled for the first state flood plan, 5.9 million Texans live in 100- or 500-year floodplains. That means more people live in Texas floodplains than live in 30 states. Yep. Thirty entire states have populations smaller than that of Texas floodplains.

Other key observations also emerge from the data:

One in five Texans lives in a floodplain
42% of those live in the San Jacinto watershed.
The number of floodplain dwellers in the San Jacinto watershed alone exceeds the population of 15 states and the District of Columbia.

Where Biggest Problems Are

No other watershed comes close to 42%. To understand where the most people live with the most flood risk, see the table below. I compiled it from reports by the 15 regional flood planning groups in Texas.

*Column 3 shows people living in 100-year floodplain (1% annual chance) and Column 4 shows the 500-year (.2% annual chance) floodplain population.*

When looking at all people living in floodplains, Texas has almost 5.9 million. The last column shows where the largest concentrations of those people reside:

Only two other watersheds, the Trinity and Lower Rio Grande, reported double-digit percentages.
Trinity had 11.7%.
Lower Rio Grande had 17%.
No other watershed even made it over 5% of the floodplain dwellers.

The pie chart below really drives home the lopsided percentage of the state’s flood-plain dwellers living in the San Jacinto basin. San Jacinto is the large green area.

*Compiled from data reported by each of Texas’ Regional Flood Planning Groups.*

The San Jacinto basin has more people living in floodplains than the next five watersheds put together.

Possible Reasons for San Jacinto Issues

The TWDB report does not explain why. Likely, a number of factors contribute to the high percentage:

The state’s largest concentration of people, jobs, industry
Rapid growth and lax enforcement of development regulations
Insufficient upstream mitigation
Proximity to coast, tropical storms/hurricanes
High rainfall rates
Low, flat terrain

Floodplain Dwellers as Percent of State’s Total Population

The U.S. Census Bureau now estimates that 30,029,572 people live in Texas. With almost 5.9 million of them living in a 100- or 500-year floodplain, that means a whopping one in five live in floodplains.

Of the 20% of Texans who live in floodplains:

8% live in a 100-year (1% annual chance) floodplain
12% live in a 500-year (0.2% annual chance) floodplain.

So, statewide, more people prefer to live in the less risky floodplains. But that’s not the case in every watershed. See the San Antonio watershed in the table above. Three times more people live in the riskier, 100-year floodplain than the 500-year.

Coastline Concentrations

The numbers also show concentrations of floodplain dwellers near other parts of the Texas coastline.

The lower Rio Grande has 13 times more people living in a floodplain than the upper Rio Grande.
The lower Colorado has twice as many people living in a floodplain than the upper Colorado.
The lower Brazos has 2.5 times more people living in a floodplain than the upper Brazos.
The San Jacinto, which is one of the state’s shorter rivers and mostly near the coastline has the highest number of people in floodplains by far.

This 2014 NOAA study showed that 40% of the U.S. population lives in coastal counties. Density is far higher in coastal counties compared to inland areas. Coastal counties have 40% of the population but only 10% of the land.

Coastal areas also face different issues than inland communities. According to NOAA, “These include increased risks from high-tide flooding, hurricanes, sea level rise, erosion, and climate change.”

Cost of Making People Safe

The San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group recommended $46 billion worth of studies and mitigation projects in its regional plan. And the San Jacinto is just one of 15 watersheds in the state!

In sharp contrast to the magnitude of mitigation needs, the legislature voted only approximately $1 billion for flood prevention projects this year.

If I’ve learned one thing about flood prevention, it’s that nothing moves quickly.

Need for More Awareness

And that gives me a sinking feeling – especially knowing how few people have flood insurance and how many more need it.

The floodplains in our area are huge. We have a lot of people. And thus, the scary numbers for the San Jacinto watershed. And also consider this. The numbers above are likely understated, because they only reflect riverine flooding and not street flooding from poorly maintained ditches.

With few affordable structural solutions in sight, TWDB should spend some of their funds on public awareness and education while we wait for projects to happen. Few people understand how much flood risk they live with…until they flood.

For the entire 63-page report, see TWDB Board Agenda/Item #8 from their July 25th meeting. (Caution: 33 meg download.)

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/29/23

2160 Days since Hurricane Har vey

Deeper Dive into Northpark Expansion, Drainage Plans

On 7/27/23, I interviewed Ralph De Leon, Northpark project coordinator for the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority (TIRZ 10) and Kevin Perkins, a project manager for HNTB, one of the contractors on the job. The discussion covered both the eastern and western phases of the project from Woodland Hills Drive on the east to US59 and beyond on the west.

Since Tuesday, the contractors have made visible progress. Let’s cover that first. Then I’ll cover some surprising facts I learned about the project, including flood-mitigation plans; why the project has taken so long; how it will expand to 10 lanes near the railroad and Loop 494; parts of the project that will be elevated; bridge reconstruction; Atlas-14 conflicts; and more.

Box Culverts Arrive

By mid-day today, contractors had box culverts stacked several blocks in the median between Russell-Palmer Road and Flowers of Kingwood. They also had three excavators working Thursday, compared to one on Tuesday. And they were cutting concrete in the cross-overs.

*Looking west from the diversion ditch (foreground). Only the 66″ round concrete pipe by the first excavator was there on Tuesday.*

*Looking east down the Northpark Drive median* *in opposite direction.* *Those rectangular culverts measure 6’x8′.*

*Note men cutting concrete in the median between Flowers of Kingwood (upper left) and the fireworks stand (out of frame, lower right).*

The 6×8 box culverts stacked in the distance will extend under the cross-over and connect to the round concrete pipe using the junction box stacked in front of the four round pipes. See below.

*Box culverts were stacked up to the red rib truck in the background.*

The box culverts will convey 35 square feet of stormwater compared to slightly fewer square feet for the round pipe.

That “step-down” as stormwater moves toward the diversion ditch will provide inline detention.

Also note that the existing culverts under the crossovers provide even less conveyance/storage than the new pipe. The old pipes were much smaller and frequently become clogged with weeds and grass due to long maintenance intervals.

According to Perkins, the new pipe/culvert solution offers less friction from end-to-end. The pipes shouldn’t become clogged like the old pipes did because grass and weeds won’t grow in them. Also, their consistent dimensions under the cross-overs should let more water pass through faster.

To make sure water can get into the culverts quickly during heavy rains, contractors will use extra large inlets, similar in size to those used on freeways.

Why Project Has Taken So Long

De Leon and Perkins discussed approval delays at length, mostly related to multiple groups giving input and approvals.

The project goes into, out of and back into the City of Houston.
It straddles two counties, each with different leadership and regulations.
A TIRZ, several MUDs, homeowner associations, commercial associations, KSA and Lone Star College are also involved.
Harris County Flood Control District is reviewing all the plans and approvals.
TxDoT has final say over design criteria.
Funding will come from State, Federal, and local authorities.
The Union Pacific (UP) Railroad has had multiple changes in leadership since the project started.
Gaining utility easements and rights of way has taken much longer than expected. For instance, Entergy wants 50 months to move a SINGLE transformer, almost half again as long as it will take to build the ENTIRE bridge over 494 and the UP railroad tracks.

Getting all those dominos to line up has challenged everyone involved.

Project Will Expand to 10 Lanes Near Loop 494

Where the western phase of the project crosses Loop 494 and the UP railroad tracks, traffic surveys indicate that 80% of the traffic will go over the bridge. Regardless, TxDoT requires two lanes of feeder road in each direction to handle local traffic not going over the bridge. Six lanes of bridge and four lanes of feeder will require some property acquisition still to be completed. Not all of the expansion will fit over the center ditch.

Pedestrian Underpass

The eastern phase of the project will contain a pedestrian underpass similar to others found throughout Kingwood. Engineers hope to keep water out by making the entrances higher than surrounding areas so water drains away. The tunnel will be 10 feet wide to accommodate special extra-wide wheelchairs for people with curved spines. Ten feet will accommodate two such wheelchairs moving in opposite directions.

Elevated Roadway with Cheek Walls

In certain areas that experience repetitive flooding, especially east of the drainage ditch where Bens Branch cuts under Northpark Drive, the road will be elevated. Feathering out the bed toward the sides would require killing hundreds, if not thousands of trees. So instead, contractors will elevate the road using “cheek walls.” Highway 59 makes extensive use of cheek walls for the same reason – to conserve space and allow trees to grow.

Two 10-Foot Sidewalks to Lone Star College

West of 59, contractors will build two 10-foot sidewalks along Rock Creek south of Northpark. The sidewalks will help cash-starved Lone Star College students ride bicycles to class when weather permits. Katherine Perrson, now retired head of the college, made the request.

Leaving Room for Diversion Ditch Expansion

The City has hired a contractor called NBG Constructors to clean out the diversion ditch under both Northpark Drive bridges and return the channel to its original as-designed capacity. Over the years, sedimentation has constricted the flow as you can see below.

*Note accumulated sediment constricting flow under bridge.*

Eventually, Harris County will widen the diversion ditch. HCFCD rated it one of the two most important projects in Kingwood. As part of the Northpark Expansion project, both bridges will be rebuilt, but with enough width to accommodate eventual expansion of the ditch.

Meets Harris County Atlas-14 Requirements

When complete, the project will meet Harris County Atlas-14 requirements for 77339 which are more stringent (about 40% higher) than Montgomery County’s. That’s because virtually all of the water associated with this project will drain into Harris county. MoCo standards are lower because Montgomery averages requirements across the entire county. Rainfall drops off with distance from the Gulf.

Detention Basins and 59 Entry

To reduce the chance of flooding near 59, contractors will build two detention basins on either side of Northpark at 59. They will connect with each other underground and also connect with another basin and channel north of Northpark via an 8 foot pipe.

Timetable

All this won’t happen overnight. De Leon is working on updating the timetable and will post it with a new project website that gives Kingwood and Porter residents weekly or bi-weekly updates. More news to follow, including a deeper dive into the drainage analysis and how some water will be diverted around Northpark.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/27/23

2158 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Northpark Drive Expansion Begins in Earnest

Note: This story was updated on 7/26/23 to include more information about phasing of the Northpark Drive expansion project.

After what turned out to be a ceremonial groundbreaking on 4/13/23, the Northpark Drive expansion project appears to have started in earnest on 7/25/2023. Northpark is a vital evacuation route for tens of thousands of Kingwood and Porter residents during floods.

Cones and Culvert Line Northpark Center Ditch

Traffic cones line the center ditch between Russell-Palmer and the Kingwood Diversion Ditch.

*Looking west toward Russell-Palmer Road*

Contractors have also stacked what looks like six-foot reinforced-concrete pipe on the edge of the Northpark Drive ditch where it enters the Kingwood Diversion Ditch.

*Looking SE across Northpark from Fireworks Stand parking lot to Flowers of Kingwood.*

They have also begun excavating the Northpark center ditch.

*Looking E to Kingwood and City Limit (Green sign).*

Project Partners

Project partners include:

Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority
City of Houston District E
Montgomery County Precinct 4
Texas Dept. of Transportation
Harris County Flood Control

Plan Vs. Execution

In general, the project partners plan to widen Northpark by a lane in each direction (toward the middle). But instead of taking land and parking from merchants, the project partners plan to replace the center ditch with culvert then pave over it.

Early plans indicated that the area between US59 and Russell-Palmer would be Phase One and that Russell-Palmer to the Diversion Ditch and eventually beyond Woodland Hills would follow.

However, Ralph Deleon, a TIRZ engineer/project manager indicated that contractors are taking pieces of the phases out of order. Why? Contractors are ready to go. But not all the right-of-way and utility issues have been resolved.

So they’re approaching drainage first and starting at the downstream end – a best practice. In coming days, we should see additional activity on other portions of Northpark Drive. But Deleon emphasized that the public should have two lanes of traffic in both directions at all times.

The Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority (TIRZ 10) website contains a number of videos and construction docs that detail the ultimate vision for the project as well as next steps.

Will Culvert Convey as Much as Ditch?

The first thing that popped into my mind when I looked at the size of the culvert and the size of the ditch was that the culvert could not possibly convey all the water that the ditch used to.

*Google Earth shows width of v-shaped ditch is 50 feet. Circular pipe is 6 feet.*

Then I read this letter from Harris County Flood Control to the engineering company. It states, “The proposed improvement includes enlarging the proposed storm sewer system to provide inline detention and modeling the restrictors needed to meet allowable outflow requirements for both outfalls.”

The pipes shown above would definitely act as restrictors. I sure hope they don’t back water up into the street.

Having worked near Northpark for 22 years, I’ve seen the ditch overflow on multiple occasions. I’ve seen cars plunge to the bottom, emergency rescues, and stalled vehicles.

Here is the engineering company’s drainage impact analysis . And this presentation provides a project overview for the pre–bid conference for the western portion of the project. It shows a 32-month construction schedule for the western portion alone – even with a six day work week.

More Info to Follow

The TIRZ docs for the eastern portion of the project (Russell-Palmer to Diversion Ditch, Woodland Hills and beyond) are less comprehensive.

I’m meeting with the engineers and contractors tomorrow to learn more. Check back for more news and analysis.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/25/2023 and updated on 7/26/23

2156 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Nine Crenshaw Flood-Related Earmark Requests Approved by Various House Committees

U.S. Congressman Dan Crenshaw made nine flood-related earmark requests for 2024. And according to his office, several House of Representative Committees have approved all nine. They include:

$1.75M – Taylor Gully Flood Mitigation Project
$1.75M – Goose Creek Channel Conveyance Improvements
$3.6M – Highlands, Huffman & Crosby Roadway Reconstruction and Drainage Improvements project
$1.83 – San Jacinto River Wastewater System Replacement
$4M – Kingwood Diversion Channel/Walnut Lane Bridge
$1.12M – FM1488 Area Street Rehabilitation and Drainage Improvement Project
$3M – Tamina Economic Development Planning Project
$7M – Ford Road Improvement Projects
$700,000 Montgomery County Bridge Project

A committee also approved a request by Crenshaw NOT related to flooding – $1.65M for the Montgomery County Active Shooter Defense Training Facility. That means all 10 of Representative Crenshaw’s 2024 requests received funding, although not all received the full amount requested.

Project Descriptions

For descriptions of all 10 earmarks requested by Crenshaw, see below.

1. Taylor Gully Flood Mitigation Project

Recipient: Harris County Flood Control District

Requested: $8 million

Committee Approved: $1.75 million. See Interior List.

Purpose: To reduce flood risk in the Kingwood area. This area experienced widespread flooding from recent storm events, including Hurricane Harvey and Tropical Storm Imelda. This project will create a detention basin and improve stormwater conveyance to minimize flood risks. Engineering studies show that completion of this project will result in substantial reductions in flooding along Taylor Gully. The studies show that this project will remove the 100-year floodplain from more than 276 structures and 115 acres of flood area.

2. Goose Creek Channel Conveyance Improvements and Stormwater Detention Project

Recipient: Harris County Flood Control District

Requested: $8 million

Committee Approved: $1.75 million. See Interior List.

Purpose: This project is designed to reduce flood risk within the Goose Creek Watershed by creating a detention basin and improving stormwater conveyance. The project is estimated to remove approximately 28 acres of inundated land, up to 77 structures, and 1.44 miles of inundated roadways from the 100-year event. Preventing flooding will avoid the need for more costly recovery efforts after flooding events.

3. Highland / Huffman / Crosby Roadway & Drainage Improvement

Recipient: Harris County, Texas

Requested: $3.6 million

Committee approved $3.6 million. See Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development List.

Purpose: Reconstruction of multiple poorly paved roads in subdivisions throughout the Highlands, Crosby, and Huffman areas of northeast Harris County. Existing gravel roads and inadequate drainage will be replaced with asphalt pavement, driveway culverts, and roadside ditches that will greatly improve residents’ quality of life. The projects will also improve accessibility for law enforcement and emergency services, reduce flood risk, and bring the local infrastructure to a standard acceptable for long-term County maintenance.

4. San Jacinto River Wastewater System Replacement Project

Recipient: Army Corps of Engineers

Requested: $1.8 million

Committee Approved: $1.83 million. See Energy and Water List.

Purpose: To increase the reliability of the San Jacinto River Authority Woodlands Division wastewater conveyance system and repair damage from recent storms. List stations were damaged by flooding during Hurricane Harvey and have yet to be repaired. Both on-site lift stations, the control building, and the emergency generator were flooded and need to be replaced. This request would fund the demolition of the existing structure and build new systems.

5. Kingwood Diversion Channel – Walnut Lane Bridge Project

Recipient: City of Houston

Requested: $4 million

Committee Approved: $4 million. See Homeland Security List.

Purpose: The project includes the widening and reconstruction of Walnut Lane Bridge in Kingwood. This bridge, in its current configuration, will restrict flood flows unless widened to accommodate the future expansion of the Kingwood Diversion Channel currently being designed by the Harris County Flood Control District. The purpose of the overall project is to route drainage from Montgomery County to Lake Houston and reduce flood damage to residents of Kingwood along Bens Branch. The funding is needed to construct improvements needed to facilitate the expansion of the Kingwood Diversion Ditch and rebuild the Walnut Lane Bridge.

6. FM1488 Area Street Rehabilitation and Drainage Improvement Project

Recipient: City of Conroe

Requested: $1.12 million

Committee Approved: $1.12 million. See Transportation, and Housing and Urban Develop List.

Purpose: The project will fund roadway resurfacing, drainage improvements, and storm sewer upgrades of roadways connecting to FM1488 near IH-45 (southern part of Conroe). The City of Conroe has experienced severe weather and rainfall which causes considerable wear and tear on the roads and drainage network. The project will benefit residential areas, including the Arella Forrest at Woodland Senior Living Center and Stillwater neighborhood. It will also improve access to the WG Jones State Forest, which serves a community located in a Historically Disadvantaged Community Tract.

7. Tamina Economic Development Planning Project

Recipient: Montgomery County

Requested: $3 million

Committee Approved: $3 million. See Transportation and Housing and Urban Development List.

Purpose: The Tamina area is not served by modern street and stormwater management systems. The streets are in disrepair and the area drains very poorly, creating an elevated risk of flooding. The first phase of economic development planning, which this request would support, is to complete detailed engineering and environmental studies, provide new driveways and culverts, and re-grade all of the ditches to allow them to drain.

8. Ford Road Improvement Project

Recipient: Montgomery County

Requested: $12 million

Committee Approved: $7 million. See Transportation List.

Purpose: Support Ford Road improvements from US 59 in Montgomery County to the Harris County line. The current road is undersized and serves as one of only three evacuation routes for the Kingwood area. All three routes have drainage issues and Ford Road is only a two-lane road. The proposed project would make Ford Road a four-lane road, improve local drainage, and improve driver and pedestrian safety in the corridor.

9. Montgomery County Bridge Project

Recipient: Montgomery County

Requested: $900,000

Committee Approved: $700,000. See Transportation List.

Purpose: Provide funding for five rural wooden bridges in Montgomery County that are past their design life and need to be replaced. The bridges were not built to current criteria and increase the risk of flooding by backing up water during large storms. One bridge serves as the only way in and out of a subdivision presenting a safety hazard. The funding request is for engineering, surveying, and permitting services to develop construction plans to replace five bridges.

10. Active Shooter Defense Training Facility

Recipient: Montgomery County

Requested: $2.3 million

Committee Approved: $1.65 million. See Commerce, Justice, Science List.

Purpose: Purpose: To assist with the operations of our regional active shooter rapid response training facility by purchasing training supplies/aids, equiping graduates with medical response supplies, and ballistic equipment for actual threats. To date, graduates include 1,600 law enforcement personnel, fire and EMS first responders.

Next Steps

Being approved by a committee doesn’t mean the Crenshaw earmarks are “done deals” yet. The full House of Representatives and Senate must still approve them. And then the President must sign the Appropriations bill into law. So, things could change between now and the end of the year. Final amounts could vary. More news to follow on the Crenshaw earmarks.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/24/23

2155 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Don Becomes First Hurricane of 2023 Atlantic Season

At 2:00 PM EDT on 7/22/23, the National Hurricane Center announced that Tropical Storm Don became Hurricane Don, the first Atlantic storm to achieve hurricane-force winds this year. Not only did Don form earlier than usual, it formed farther north than usual – between New England and Europe. Hurricanes hardly ever form in that area this early in the Atlantic hurricane season.

Hurricane Don’s Current Location

*Location of Hurricane Don on is parallel with New Jersey.* *NOAA gives the orange area a 60% chance of formation in the next 7 days.*

Hurricane Don’s Expected Track

NHC expects Don to decrease in strength to a tropical storm on Sunday and a tropical depression on Monday as it turns toward Europe.

Higher than Normal Sea Surface Temps Contribute to Early Formation

Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures played a role in the intensification of Don. Note the dark brown to black areas off the coasts of New England and Newfoundland. Those colors indicate a whopping 4 to 5 degrees centigrade above normal. That equals 7-9 degrees Fahrenheit.

No Hurricanes Reported Forming That Far North This Early

NHC shows that in the 165 years between 1851 and 2015, no other hurricane formed as far north as Don during this 10-day period.

*From National Hurricane Center Climatology page.*

Average Dates of Formation for Named Storms

Usually, the Atlantic Basin doesn’t see its first named hurricane until August 11. So Don is a month ahead of schedule on that count.

*Dates of named storms* *from National Hurricane Center Climatology page.*

Don is no threat to the Houston area. But Don’s timing may give us a clue to the type of hurricane season this will be. Both Colorado State and NOAA predicted slightly above average hurricane seasons this year.

The fourth tropical storm of the year doesn’t usually happen until August 15. And the first hurricane doesn’t usually happen until August 11.

El Niño Not a Factor in Don’s Formation

It takes the alignment of seven ingredients to form tropical cyclone. NOAA lists warm seas as #2. And we certainly have that around the world this year year, as you can see in the anomaly map above.

Wind shear from El Niño would not play a factor in deterring hurricane formation as far north as Don OR this early in the season, says Harris County’s meteorologist Jeff Lindner. “El Nino has little to no influence on our weather during the summer months (June-September),” says Lindner.

“The majority of El Nino’s influence on southern plains and Texas weather is during the fall, winter, and spring (October-May). This time of year we tend to be controlled by the sub-tropical highs around 30º N and/or the influences of the tropics from the Gulf of Mexico. This particular year the Sonoran sub-tropical high over the SW US and northern MX had thus far been the main controlling factor in our weather and El Nino has little impact on that.”

Lindner concluded, “The wind shear associated with El Niño is mainly across the southern Gulf of Mexico, much of the Caribbean Sea, and the western deep tropical Atlantic. However, wind shear thus far this hurricane season has not been overly impressive for an El Nino summer and there are some suggestions that the very warm Atlantic waters may be lessening the impacts of El Nino and its wind shear in the Atlantic basin.”

We’re into uncharted territory, so to speak. This is where it gets interesting.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/23/2023

2155 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Necessary Ingredients for a Tropical Cyclone

This morning I visited the National Hurricane Center website to see the latest tropical developments. The Houston Area has nothing to worry about at the moment. But while I was on the NHC website, I stumbled on an incredible resource. It discussed – among other things – the necessary ingredients for a tropical cyclone. It’s called the Mariner’s Tropical Cyclone Guide, updated by Dylan Flynn in May 2023.

A Treasure Trove of Information about Tropical Systems

The title sells this electronic booklet short. It’s true that the last quarter of this 86 page booklet discusses how to navigate ships and boats near tropical cyclones. But the rest is a primer on tropical systems themselves. The booklet has four chapters:

Tropical Cyclone Basics
Climatology
Monitoring Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Cyclone Evasion

Although the book is targeted at Navy and Merchant Marine personnel, the general public will find the first three parts both informative and educational. The writing is clear, crisp, and concise. And the illustrations are illuminating. Overall, a quick read.

One of the most fascinating discussions started on page 12.

Necessary Ingredients for Development and Intensification

Flynn lists seven environmental conditions necessary for tropical cyclones to form and thrive. Eliminate one, says Flynn, and the whole system starts to break down.

A pre-existing surface disturbance with thunderstorms: Tropical cyclones rely on a build-up of heat energy above them to grow and develop. A thunderstorm complex acts as a vertical transport mechanism for heat, moisture, and the cyclonic turning of winds into the upper levels of the atmosphere. This vertical transport helps tropical cyclones develop.
Warm ocean: Tropical cyclones draw on the heat energy stored in the ocean. Sea surface temperatures of at least 80ºF are needed to support development and intensification. Evaporation of this warm water begins the process of energizing the atmospheric column. The warm seas should extend at least 60 m deep, as the strong winds of a tropical cyclone cause a turbulent sea that mixes the warm surface water with cooler, deeper water.
Low vertical wind shear: Tropical cyclones rely on a vertically stacked structure to grow or maintain intensity. The ideal tropical cyclone has its upper-level circulation directly above the low-level circulation. Changes in environmental wind speed or direction with height will tilt the vertical structure. This tilting inhibits growth and may cause the system to decay.
Unstable atmosphere: Rising air is needed to warm the tropical cyclone core, and an unstable atmosphere is necessary to support rising air.
High atmospheric moisture content: Cloud formation is limited if the atmospheric column is too dry. Rising air will cool but struggle to reach the low dew point. The environment is often stable for dry parcels of air but unstable for moist air.
Upper-level outflow: An exhaust mechanism is needed above a system to perpetuate the strong upward motion. This upper-level mass removal causes the pressure at the surface to drop. As a system develops, low-level cyclonic flow pulls mass toward the center. The flow then turns upward as intense vertical motion associated with thunderstorms. This process is known as “the in-up-and-out” circulation. Without a method to dispose of the mass above a tropical cyclone, low-level converging flow toward the center will halt as the system suffocates.
Adequate Coriolis force: Due to the earth’s rotation, the Coriolis force causes tropical cyclones to spin counter-clockwise in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere. This spin is a critical component for development and intensification. Tropical cyclones rarely develop within 5 degrees of the equator, where this force is weakest. See gap in illustration below.

Other Fascinating Discussions

This is just one of dozens of fascinating topics in Flynn’s booklet. Among other things, Flynn discusses:

The exact meaning of terms used by NOAA and the National Hurricane Center. For instance, do you know the difference between a potential tropical cyclone, tropical cyclone and tropical depression? See pages 7-8.
How tropical cyclones dissipate and transition into extratropical storms. Page 14.
The size of the impact area for tropical cyclones. Page 15.

*Largest and smallest tropical cyclones on record. Source: NOAA’s Mariner’s Tropical Cyclone Guide by Dylan Flynn.* NM stands for nautical miles (about 6,076 ft).

What 50 foot waves look like to a sail drone from inside the eye of hurricane. Page 22.
How dangers differ in different areas around cyclones.
Seasonal variations and the influence of El Niño.
Environmental steering currents for cyclones.
How to interpret NOAA’s technical charts and tables, such as wave heights/intervals, wind forecasts, etc.

The general public and weather enthusiasts will find a boatload of useful information in this booklet, not just the necessary ingredients for a tropical cyclone.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/2023

2153 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Goal! Kingwood Middle School Reconstruction Reaches Finals

As I drove by Kingwood Middle School this afternoon, sprinklers were sprinkling, grass was growing and the construction equipment was gone. All that remained were two workmen from a landscaping crew packing up their equipment. There may be small jobs yet to do. For instance, will the athletic field have football goal posts?

But I think we can safely move this project into the win column. In three years, it has gone from “distant dream” to “architectural gem” and “community showcase.”

By the start of school in three weeks, Kingwood Middle School should be fully functional – including the athletic fields and new stormwater retention basins that it never had before. See below.

*Looking north. The giant “Cougars” emblem on the lobby sun screen is a new addition since my last report.*

*Giant retention basins where main entry used to be should reduce flood risk in neighborhood.*

For Photographic History of Project

For photos showing the progress of Kingwood Middle School demolition and re-construction, see below.

Job Well Done

Congratulations to Humble ISD staff, Superintendent Elizabeth Fagan, School Board, and contractors. Job well done!

This is a great example of how new construction can reduce flood risk…when people care.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/20/2023

2151 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Insurance Companies Limit Exposure In Florida, California. Will Texas Be Next?

An article in the New York Times on July 14 listed insurance companies limiting coverage or pulling out of disaster prone states.

Farmers said it will limit coverage in Florida
Eight smaller insurers have gone bankrupt in Florida in the last two years.
State Farm and Allstate have stopped selling policies in California, and Farmers has limited them there.

Separately, a Washington Post investigation found that some Florida policyholders had their claims cut by more than 80 percent after Hurricane Ian last year. The headline screams, “Insurers slashed Hurricane Ian payouts far below damage estimates…”

Risks Vs. Rewards of Living Near Water

I’ve written before about how the love of living near water can outweigh the fear of consequences that sometimes accompanies it.

If you google “benefits of living near water,” you will quickly find 1.9 billion results. Many of them are from residential developers near rivers, lakes, streams and seashores. They make health and emotional claims such as:

Lowers stress and anxiety
Increases in well-being and happiness
Lowers heart and breathing rates
Healthier lifestyle.

Now google “disadvantages of living near water.” You get half that number of results. They tend to cluster around:

Flood damage
Pollution
Erosion
Increased maintenance and insurance costs

For Most People, Rewards Generally Outweigh Risks

It’s not that people don’t recognize the disadvantages of living near water. It’s just that most enjoy the benefits more. AND they figure that insurance companies will make them whole should disaster strike.

But now, at least in some states, insurance companies seem to be caught in a squeeze between shareholders and regulators. And they’re making some tough calls that will force policy holders to re-evaluate whether the rewards of living near water are worth the risks.

As I scrolled through my library of almost 50,000 flood-related images last week, I wondered how long it might be before Texans experienced the same insurance problems now facing Florida and California residents.

Our love of water, buoyed by the courageous, optimistic spirit of Texans, leads many to take risks that I personally would not take.

Bolivar Peninsula Denser than Before Ike

In that regard, I remember the Bolivar Peninsula after Hurricane Ike. Ike’s storm surge brought total destruction to 30,000 homes in 2008. See the images below these first three satellite images. The satellite images show the same area before, immediately after, and 15 years later on the Bolivar.

*Google Earth image showing residential area on Bolivar Peninsula the week before Ike struck in September 2008.* *Note large, open undeveloped areas.*

*Same area day after Ike. Total destruction. See ground-level shots below.*

The Bolivar today has denser development than it did before Ike. Such is our collective love of water…that we quickly forget or overlook the destruction that happened just 15 years ago. Here’s what it looked like on the ground.

*Destruction on Bolivar Peninsula After Hurricane Ike*

*This was an excellent opportunity to buy people out and turn this area into a national seashore. But that was politically unpalatable.*

*Power not only went down. The entire power infrastructure was taken out.*

We’ve spent the 15 years since Ike studying proposals to build an Ike Dike that could protect such properties. But in June 2023, the Houston Chronicle reported that it could be 2040 before construction completion of the $34 billion project.

Until then, it’s “swim at your own risk.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/18/2023

2149 Days since Hurricane Harvey