After 4 Years, No Recommendations from River Basin Master Drainage Plan in Design Yet

After four years, not one of the recommendations from the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Plan is in design yet.

In the summer of 2020, Harris County Flood Control District, the City of Houston, Montgomery County, and the San Jacinto River Authority released a massive study on how to address flooding in the upper San Jacinto River Basin. But four years later, not one of the 16 main recommendations has been constructed. In fact, none are even in design yet, according to one source I talked to for this post.

Cost, political willpower, eminent-domain issues, and jurisdictional boundaries seem to have torpedoed any progress.

Major Recommendations in Plan

The 3,600 page study contained 16 main recommendations.

Here’s where they are.

However, Matt Barrett, PE, the SJRA’s Flood Management Division Director, says, “No construction has started on any of the major project recommendations (detention and channelization projects).” 

Another source familiar with the plan complained that none are even in design yet. That source also cited unfavorable cost benefit ratios.

Expected Benefits of Plan

If built, these projects could make a real difference for people throughout Montgomery County and northern Harris County.

The following table shows how much the water surface elevation could be reduced in a 100-year storm at a number of locations if the recommendations were implemented.

From Page 27 of Executive Summary

Cost Issue

The 2020 study estimated that building all these projects could cost up to $3.3 billion. They would cost more today. We’ve had 20% inflation since then.

The total in today’s dollars could easily approach $4 billion. That’s a pretty major ask for taxpayers.

But the 2018 Harris County Flood Bond (approved before the study) included only $18.75 million dollars for “Funding for Future Partnership Projects Based on Results of Study – for Right-of-Way Acquisition, Design, and Construction of General Drainage Improvements in San Jacinto River Watershed Study.” See Project C-50.

Political Willpower

Funding for the gap will not come from any of the study sponsors.

Harris County Commissioners Court has prioritized “equity” projects in low-to-moderate income areas inside the Beltway. Some have even declared they will never vote for spending money outside of Harris County.

Most of the projects are outside the City of Houston and its extra-territorial jurisdiction.

The San Jacinto River Authority doesn’t have an income stream to fund the improvements.

And most Montgomery County Commissioners don’t see flooding as their most pressing problem.

Understandably, no one has seized the reins for these projects. Even if physically feasible, they don’t seem politically feasible at this point.

Eminent Domain and Jurisdictional Boundaries

Worse, 10 of the 16 projects are large stormwater detention areas that would likely require invoking eminent domain. That’s always politically dicey for politicians. Especially when the major benefits would accrue to downstream residents outside of their precincts – and even outside of their own county.

Better Lake Conroe Management Not Enough

As this multi-million study has been consigned to dusty bookshelves, flood-weary residents have increasingly pinned their hopes on better management of the Lake Conroe dam.

Seasonal lowering of Lake Conroe has morphed into “Active Storm Management,” a compromise between upstream and downstream interests on the San Jacinto West Fork. Instead of lowering the lake for set amounts for set periods of time each year, dam operators are now trying to lower it temporarily on the fly in advance of approaching storms. But that presents its own set of problems.

It also doesn’t affect water funneling in from other watersheds. The Lake Conroe watershed comprises only 13% of the Lake Houston watershed. That means rain falling over 87% of the area upstream from Lake Houston has nothing to slow it down.

Lake Houston Gates Not Enough Either

Farther downstream, the City of Houston has been designing new gates for the Lake Houston Dam. They will help lower floods in the Lake Houston Area somewhat. But they won’t help people upstream. And they have run into one problem after another.

For instance, the City could not find any contractors willing to bid on the recommended alternative – building crest gates on the 70-year old spillway. It was just too risky. So, the City is now redesigning the entire project.

Just three years ago, the project was scheduled for completion this summer. But the timetable has been delayed at least another four years.

Time to Reboot the Master Drainage Plan: But How?

So what can we do to refocus attention and gain momentum behind the projects in the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Plan?

In my opinion, we need to see the state take over execution of the plan. There are just too many conflicting interests at the local level.

We need to make one person/entity responsible for executing the plan.

Bob Rehak

The logical choice would be someone at the Texas Water Development Board. It’s assembling a state flood plan that includes the San Jacinto River Basin.

So how do we make that happen? We need to engage our state leaders.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/26/24

2493 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

“Seasonal” Lake Lowering Out. “Active Storm Management” In.

The San Jacinto River Authority and City of Houston have abandoned their automatic “seasonal” lake lowering policy. The seasonal program lowered Lake Conroe automatically to fixed levels during the rainiest parts of the year (April/May and August/September, i.e., the peak of hurricane season).

They have replaced seasonal lowering with a new program called “active storm management” that gives the City and Lake Conroe dam operators more flexibility to respond to actual weather conditions.

Basically, they can keep water levels up when no storms are expected. But they can lower the lake in advance of major rain…any time of the year…by amounts that will keep the lake level as stable as possible and downstream residents as safe as possible.

It’s a compromise that can be summed up in the words “as needed vs. automatic.”

Below, you can see the exact wording of the new protocols. Below that, you can see my simplified summary/interpretation. I also provide a link to the actual contract between the City and SJRA.

Active Storm Management Protocols for Lake Conroe and Lake Houston – 2024

Spring
  • Beginning April 1 through June 1, the City of Houston may request diversions to lower Lake Conroe from normal pool of 201’ msl to create up to six inches of storage capacity for forecasted storm event inflows (to 200.5’ msl). The decision of when, how, and whether to initiate diversions will be guided by climate conditions, weather patterns, and available water supply.
  • Resume normal recapturing after each storm event that triggered any diversion between April 1 and June 1.
  • In the event a major rainfall is forecasted to impact our region, active storm management protocols of the City of Houston could initiate a diversion to create up to an additional six inches of storage capacity for storm inflows (to 200.0’ msl). It is acknowledged that under extraordinary weather circumstances, additional diversions to create capacity below 200.0’ msl could occur.
Fall
  • Beginning August 1 through October 1, the City of Houston may request diversions to lower Lake Conroe if actual lake levels are at normal pool of 201 msl to create up to six inches of storage capacity for storm inflows (to 200.5’ msl). After Labor Day, storage capacity may be increased an additional six inches (to 200.0’ msl). Diversion volumes requested to reach intended levels will be dependent on the actual lake levels. The decision of when, how, and whether to initiate diversions will be guided by climate conditions, weather patterns, and available water supply.
  • Resume normal recapturing after each storm event that triggered any diversion between August 1 and October 1.
  • If a named storm is predicted to impact our region, active storm management protocols of the City of Houston could initiate a diversion to create up to an additional six inches of storage capacity for storm inflows (to 199.5’ msl). It is acknowledged that under extraordinary weather circumstances, additional diversions to create capacity below 199.5’ msl could occur.
Protocol – Lake Houston
  • Year Round
    • City of Houston will initiate releases to lower Lake Houston prior to major rainfall events.
    • Conservation Pool Elevation is 42.4’ msl.
    • Lake Houston level reduced to 41.4’ msl if a 24-hour rainfall forecast of 3 inches or more is expected. within the Lake Houston watershed.
    • Under extraordinary weather circumstances, Lake Houston level may be reduced below 41.4’.
Duration
  • The Protocols above will extend to the end of 2024 but will be reviewed by the stakeholders in October/November of 2024. During the review, the stakeholders will discuss strategies that extend beyond 2024.
Advocacy and Education
  • All stakeholders will work to support flood mitigation projects and efforts across the upper watershed, including improvement of land use regulations to reduce runoff from new development in counties that contribute flow to Lake Houston.
  • Because public education regarding completed and ongoing downstream mitigation efforts is critical to generating upstream support for continued active storm management at Lake Conroe, all stakeholders agree to educate their constituents regarding: active storm management protocols being implemented at Lake Houston, completed and ongoing sediment removal projects in the San Jacinto River basin and Lake Houston, and continued progress on the Lake Houston spillway modifications.
  • Because of its impact on effective active storm management, all stakeholders will support City of Houston and SJRA efforts to amend the Certificate of Adjudication for Lake Conroe to increase the maximum diversion rate.
  • All stakeholders agree to support efforts to limit further construction of habitable structures around Lake Conroe below elevation 207’ msl.
Important Notes
  • All water released from Lake Conroe as part of active storm management is being accounted for from the City of Houston’s 2/3 share and reported to TCEQ by the City of Houston. Therefore, all final decisions on diversions are ultimately the City’s and must be communicated to the SJRA in writing. This includes defining active storm management protocols.
  • All flood mitigation protocols could be limited due to drought conditions.

Rehak’s Summary

Note the words “MAY REQUEST” in the first sentences under Spring and Fall. Lowering is now on an “as needed” basis, not automatic.

Note also the words “RESUME NORMAL RECAPTURING” in the second bullet points under Spring and Fall. Operators will attempt to return the lake to its normal level after the storm threat has passed. The lake will not automatically be kept lower for the rest of the season.

All stakeholders have agreed to review the policy at the end of this year and modify it as necessary.

All stakeholders have also agreed to support mitigation projects including:

  • Land use regulations that reduce runoff
  • Education of residents re:
    • Active storm management protocols at Lake Houston
    • Construction progress of more Lake Houston gates
    • Sediment removal projects
  • An increase in the maximum pre-release rate for Lake Conroe
  • Limiting future construction around Lake Conroe to a safe level (207 feet above sea level).

The City of Houston must initiate lake lowering IN WRITING.

Water released from Lake Conroe at the City’s request will be reported to the TCEQ.

The City makes all decisions on releases.

Its decisions are final.

The City may redefine “active storm management” protocols, but should consider drought conditions when making decisions.

Decisions to Lower Lake Outside of Spring/Fall Dates

A release during Tropical Storm Alberto in June this year triggered a protest from the Lake Conroe Association because it fell outside the dates indicated above (April/May and August/September).

However, during the April SJRA Board meeting at which Active Storm Management was approved unanimously, the official minutes note that all parties agreed that the City could order the release of water from Lake Conroe at any time – regardless of the season.

For the historical record, here is the actual contract between the City and SJRA re: the operation of Lake Conroe.

For ease of future reference, you can also find the details above on this site’s Lake Lowering page.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/25/24

2492 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Lake Conroe Association Complains About Lowering Lake Conroe … Again

Updated 6/25/24 – After the near miss with Tropical Storm Alberto, Lake Conroe Association (LCA) President Kevin Lacey penned an angry, demanding letter to the City of Houston (CoH) about lowering the lake 5 inches.

Complaints In Lacey Letter

Among other things, the letter complains that:

  • Lowering the lake after June 1 is a “breach” of the “Active Storm Management Agreement”
  • The amount of rainfall in the original prediction did not justify the amount of “excessive” lowering
  • CoH did not stop lowering Lake Conroe when the storm veered to the southwest
  • CoH wasted its water, instead of using it “beneficially”
  • The lake likely won’t be able to recover its normal water levels during summer

Use of the word “breach” by Mr. Lacey seems to imply that his association has legal standing to dispute the actions of the SJRA and CoH. He demands that they account to him for their actions during the storm at a special meeting with LCA.

The Lake Conroe Association has a long history of protesting lake lowering. LCA sounds like a homeowner’s association, but it is not. LCA was originally founded as a nonprofit 50 years ago to combat the growth of Hydrilla (a fast-growing invasive plant species) around the lake.

Since then, LCA claims it has raised a million dollars ($20,000 per year) through donations. Currently it claims it is also fighting for “safe water levels.”

Motive Behind the Fight?

Some believe that insufficiently dredged areas around Lake Conroe motivated this fight. Regular HOAs cannot afford dredging and homeowners have difficulty operating their boats when lake levels are down.

Mr. Lacey seems oblivious to fact that many around the lake see preemptive lowering as a positive thing that helps reduce their flood risk. Anecdotally, I have heard that many homes flooded around Lake Conroe during May although I don’t have an exact count.

May Storm Dramatizes Problem of Forecast Uncertainty

After 7 inches of rain fell north of Lake Conroe in late April, SJRA began releasing water for days. They had the release rate down to 8,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) and were actually decreasing the release rate, when another 11 inches fell in the same location.

Lake Conroe flood gates
Gates at Lake Conroe can release water 15X faster than Lake Houston’s gates. This makes coordinating pre-releases difficult.

Within hours, SJRA escalated the release rate to 72,000 CFS, flooding hundreds of homes downstream, nearly flooding thousands more, breaking sand mine dikes, and sweeping sediment downstream – just as the CoH was about to begin a $34 million dredging program.

Seventy-two thousand CFS was SJRA’s second highest release rate in its history. Only Hurricane Harvey’s 79,000 CFS exceeded that.

Decreasing the release rate just hours before increasing it 9X underscores the difficulty of precisely predicting how much rain will fall where.

But Mr. Lacey didn’t acknowledge that difficulty anywhere in his letter. Nor did he reference the May storm. Or homes around Lake Conroe that flooded. Or that the City of Houston has the right to call for SJRA water year round.

He especially forgot to mention that when Alberto was pushing southwest, the National Hurricane Center predicted that another potential tropical storm could move north toward Houston. That explains the likely reason Houston continued calling for 660 CFS even after Alberto headed for Mexico and the Valley.

Ultimately, the second storm followed Alberto into Mexico yesterday. But had it moved north, there wouldn’t have been time to achieve meaningful lake-level reduction without flooding homes downstream and staying within the bounds of Lake Conroe’s permit from the TCEQ.

Correcting Other Allegations

To correct some other issues in the Lake Conroe Association letter:

  • While releasing 660 CFS per second before and during Alberto, SJRA did not exceed its TCEQ Permit which specifies 700 CFS maximum. If Mr. Lacey supported increasing that, perhaps next time, SJRA could release water closer to storms when the certainty level of forecasts is higher.
  • Breach implies some kind of a contract exists between LCA and CoH. It doesn’t. Rather, SJRA has a series of operational guidelines in place with CoH.
  • CoH owns two-thirds of the water in Lake Conroe. The “agreement” referenced by Lacey isn’t even labeled as an agreement. It’s a series of operating protocols. They let CoH call for water whenever it wants, not just during peak rainy seasons in the Spring and Fall. (More on that tomorrow.)
  • Many would consider preventing the potential flooding of homes a beneficial use of the water released, even if it did ultimately flow into the Gulf of Mexico.
  • We’ve heard LCA claim before that Lake Conroe won’t be able to return to its normal level in summer because of such releases. In 2021, LCA actually filed a lawsuit based on that claim. The judge ultimately dismissed the case with prejudice after SJRA had to increase release rates repeatedly that summer to keep homes and businesses around the lake from flooding.

Previous Exaggeration

In 2018, the Lake Conroe Association also claimed that seasonal lowering would destroy home values around Lake Conroe. A spot check of the Montgomery County Appraisal District site shows that many lakefront homes have actually doubled in value since lake lowering went into effect. I found one that virtually tripled.

Perhaps Lake Conroe residents are more concerned about whether their homes will flood than how far they have to step down into their boats. After all, the National Hurricane Center has predicted the most active hurricane season ever.

For More Information

To read the actual text of documents referenced in this post, follow these links:

The last includes elements of seasonal lowering, but differs in several important ways. It represents a compromise among automatic, season-long lowering and:

  • Construction delays for additional Lake Houston Gates
  • Upstream convenience and downstream risk reduction
  • Drought and water conservation concerns.

It does this by approaching lake lowering on an as-needed basis. It also specifies when the SJRA and City may bypass the protocols. See more tomorrow.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/24/2024

2491 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Study on Flood Inundation Mapping Seeks Focus Group Participants

The Nurture Nature Center, a nonprofit organization in Easton, Pennsylvania, is conducting focus group studies nationwide on National Weather Service hydrologic forecast products for NOAA. Next month, they will conduct a group in the Houston area.

US59 at West Fork during Harvey
Looking S across San Jacinto West Fork toward Humble from over US59 bridge during Harvey.

Purpose of Study

The research team is currently studying new Flood Inundation Mapping Products. The goal: make sure people get the information they need to prepare for possible flooding.

The study will explore the kinds of decisions users will make with new maps. The researchers will use feedback they get to provide recommendations to NWS based on focus group testing about how to:

  • Integrate key information
  • Eliminate confusion
  • Provide clarity.

This is part of a series of focus groups being conducted nationwide. Researchers will conduct this particular group in conjunction with the Houston/Galveston Weather Forecast Office. It will focus on the San Jacinto River Basin.

Focus Group Details

Researchers will hold the San Jacinto focus group:

  • On Tuesday, July 23rd from 6-8 PM
  • At the Jacinto City Branch Library Meeting Room
    921 Akron St
    Houston, TX 77029
  • Refreshments and light snacks provided

Participants will each receive $50.

To qualify, participants must live and/or work in the Houston, TX – San Jacinto River Basin area and be at least 18 years of age.

To Register…

Registration is required and limited to 15 participants.

Please circulate this post to anyone vulnerable to flooding, interested in sharing their experiences, and willing to help improve flood forecast products.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/23/24

2490 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Another Disturbance Following Path of Tropical Storm Alberto

Another disturbance is forming over the southern Gulf of Mexico where Tropical Storm Alberto formed earlier this week. However…

“Few impacts are expected along the upper Texas coast.” 

Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner

Satellite and surface observations indicate that the storm is moving slowly toward the WNW/NW.

“A deep convective band has developed well to the north of the broad surface low while other convective activity remains at a minimum,” said Lindner.

As of 15:00 Zulu time, which equals 10 AM in Houston

“Some additional development of this feature is possible over the next few days as it moves slowly toward the WNW/NW. Eventually it will make landfall along the eastern coast of Mexico,” he said.

50% Chance of Development

The National Hurricane Center currently gives this disturbance a 50% chance of development in the next two days.

As of 12:00 AM CDT on Saturday, June 22, 2024

“Given the broad nature of the surface low, it may take some time for the system to consolidate,” Lindner continued. “And it is equally possible that it runs out of time and makes landfall before developing into a tropical system.”

Possible tracks of storm system

Little Impact Predicted Along Upper Texas Coast

Generally there will be little to no impact of this system along the upper TX coast. Current elevated tides are the result of the subsiding wave action from Alberto and the current full-moon cycle. Elevated tides will continue to subside over the next few days.

“With high pressure building across the Houston area, moisture will remain mostly south of us,” concluded Lindner.

Three weeks into the hurricane season, most of the action has been in the Gulf of Mexico. This is consistent with earlier predictions. Forecasters predicted that the developing La Niña would reduce wind sheer in the Gulf. That allows more storms to build closer to Houston as opposed to the mid-Atlantic.

So check the National Hurricane Center daily. And make sure you’re prepared for a storm. The closer they originate to Texas, the less time we have to prepare for them.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/22/24

2489 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Northpark Expansion Obstacles Finally Being Addressed

6/21/24 – Entergy has removed some – but not all – blockages to the Northpark expansion project related to its equipment. The project is designed to build an all-weather evacuation route for 78,000 Kingwood residents.

Entergy removed several of its poles that blocked expansion of the roadway earlier this week.

The company is also committing to dates for the removal of other poles that remain in the way of construction.

The Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ-10 first notified Entergy that it would have to move its equipment in 2020. On February 6th this year, the City of Houston finally set a firm deadline. It gave Entergy 30 days to move its equipment. That deadline was obviously missed.

Entergy says it has been working diligently to help Northpark expansion move forward. As we move into what is expected to be a very busy hurricane season, here’s where the TIRZ and Entergy say things stand and what I have been able to verify photographically.

Some Poles Already Removed Earlier This Week

Entergy removed several poles that blocked construction progress on Tuesday, June 18. They were located near Dunkin’ Donuts and Public Storage.

Note old pole on ground in front of Public Storage (out of frame to right).

Primoris, an Entergy contractor, took down that and several other poles that day.

More Entergy poles being removed by Primoris crew in front of Dunkin’ Donuts

Two other groups of poles continue to block construction, however. Here’s what Entergy is doing to address those.

Blockage #1: Poles West of Car Wash

The first blockage is a group of three poles immediately west of the Quick Quack Car Wash where new westbound turn lanes will begin. This group of poles still holds a Comcast cable. See below.

Looking W. Three short poles on left between Duncan Donuts and Quick Quack Carwash have yet to be moved.

Comcast has committed to burying this cable next week. Then Primoris can remove the poles for Entergy.

Blockage #2: Poles near Loop 494

The second group also has three poles – at Loop 494 and the Union Pacific railroad tracks. However, these three poles have two separate issues with which Entergy must contend.

  • They supply redundant power to the businesses along Northpark.
  • An Internet provider, Brightspeed, also has a line mounted on two of the three poles. (See #2 and #3 below.)
Entergy Delay Forces Change to Northpark Expansion Plan…Again
Looking W from over Northpark across 494. Three more Entergy power poles blocking Northpark Drive expansion.

To get these three poles out of the way of Northpark expansion, Entergy has three options:

  • Move them north (right in photo above)
  • Bore under the roadway and tracks
  • A combination of the above.

According to Brian Garcia, Entergy’s project manager, his company has chosen a combination of the two approaches. It will move the overhead lines north temporarily while it works out permits and easements with TXDoT and Union Pacific.

Once Entergy has secured permissions needed, it will then bury the lines, a solution that is more reliable. It is also more expensive because two moves are involved rather than one. But it should let construction move forward faster.

Entergy has committed to delivering a plan to temporarily relocate Pole #1 (in the photo above) by end of day today.

Weather permitting, Entergy also plans to actually relocate its wires on Poles #2 and #3 by 6/28/24 – next Friday. Entergy would then top its old poles. That would let BrightSpeed remove its cable. And then Primoris could remove the old poles.

Union Pacific Sets Meeting on Crossing Signals

Meanwhile, Union Pacific (UP) has set a meeting for July 9 to talk about relocating its crossing signals. It’s a firm deadline, according to De Leon, the TIRZ’s project manager for Northpark Expansion.

Unexpected delays by any party in this ballet of corporate behemoths could create a domino effect that could push the Northpark project back into next year. Or even force cancellation.

Blockage #3: Transformer At Exxon

Meanwhile, at the Exxon Station near US59, Entergy also has a transformer that must be moved farther back from the roadway. See red circle below. The distance has to do, in part, with line-of-sight issues for motorists. Its height means that it could block the view of motorists entering or leaving the roadway.

Entergy transformer at US59 (top) and Northpark (right) circled in red.

But working around the transformer presents serious construction problems. The wires leading to/from it are not up to code, according to De Leon.

He says that the City building code calls for underground wiring to be encased in steel. But the wiring in this area is not. That could jeopardize the safety of heavy equipment operators working to expand Northpark in this area.

Garcia disagrees. He says all of their equipment and lines meet or exceed all applicable building codes.

Several weeks ago, a contractor for the TIRZ did some exploratory hydro-excavation as part of its due diligence for the roadway expansion project. The contractor found Entergy wires that were exposed, not encased like De Leon says they should have been.

Wiring near Entergy transformer exposed during exploratory hydro-excavation process.

De Leon shared this photo in the June TIRZ board meeting. He says it creates a major safety issue for construction workers near the transformer. According to him, the workers could be electrocuted if, for instance, the bucket of an excavator accidentally cut one of the wires.

Garcia says Entergy crews will move the transformer. But De Leon and his contractors are concerned about what could happen if they encounter similar wires as they work in the same general area.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/21/2024

2488 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Alberto, First Named Storm of Season, Lashes Mexico, South TX

6/19/24 – Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 just became Tropical Storm Alberto, according to the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 10 AM update. Alberto will reach the coast of northeast Mexico early tomorrow morning.

Texas Impacts from Alberto

Until then, the entire Texas Coast up to San Luis Pass is under a tropical storm warning. Residents can expect heavy rains, coastal flooding and gusty winds through Thursday.

NHC expects Alberto to weaken quickly once it comes ashore early Thursday. The storm is moving at 9 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 40 MPH. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles north of the center.

Peak storm surge will reach 2-4 feet along the upper Texas Coast and Galveston Bay.

Rainfall Still Ratcheting Down

Rainfall predictions continue to ratchet down, however, especially for the Houston area as Alberto is pushed south by higher pressure from the northeast U.S.

Alberto should produce 5 to 10 inches of rainfall across northeast Mexico into South Texas. Maximum totals around 20 inches are possible. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.

NHC will produce more advisories on Alberto at 1 and 4 PM today.

Make Alberto a Learning Experience

If you have kids home from school looking for something to do, this is an excellent chance to teach them about tropical cyclones.

NHC offers dozens of educational resources geared toward students from K-12 all the way up to continuing education for weather professionals. Harness your child’s natural curiosity while storms are in the news.

I found NHC’s course on Hurricane Basics very informative. Before Alberto became Alberto, it had winds strong enough to qualify as a tropical storm, but NHC kept calling it a potential tropical cyclone instead. Do you know the other attributes that define tropical cyclones? Hurricane Basics tells you.

Want to know what it takes to get a tropical cyclone started?

What affects their intensity?

Or how various factors come together to produce more or less rainfall?

NHC describes each of the factors above and provides clear, simple illustrations that make them easy to understand.

This particular presentation also covers:

  • Storm tracks
  • Where hurricanes will most likely form depending on month of the season
  • Tropical distrubances
  • Track forecasting
  • Associated hazards, such as hurricanes
  • Relative risks from wind, rainfall, surge, flash flooding, etc.
  • Categories of storms and types of damage associated with each
  • More, much more.

Trivia: By the way, NHC provides climate data, too. Did you know, for instance, that the first named storm of the season usually occurs on June 20th in the Atlantic Basin. This year, the first named storm occurred on June 19.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/19/24

2486 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Heaviest Rainfall Threat from PTC1 Shifting Southwest

The heavy rainfall threat for the northeast Houston area from PTC1 (Potential Tropical Cyclone #1) has shifted southwest somewhat today. While the storm takes its time getting organized, high pressure from the eastern US is building into the Houston area. That’s squeezing the heaviest rains toward the coast and the Rio Grande Valley.

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center warns of a second storm forming next week exactly where PTC1 is forming now. But it will likely head north, not west.

Heaviest Rainfall from PCT1 Shifting Southwest

Over the weekend, early predictions suggested heavy rains would arrive in the Lake Houston Area on Monday. Monday’s predictions suggested Tuesday. And now Tuesday’s predictions say the Lake Houston Area might get 1-3 inches of rain during the next three days.

The National Weather Service (NWS) now predicts PTC1 will produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas. Maximum totals could approach 15 inches.

This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.

NWS also predicts the broad circulation of PTC1 could produce extreme rainfall in Central America. Totals could average 10 to 20 inches with maximum amounts of 25 inches. Areas most affected include the Pacific coast of far southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, much of El Salvador, western Honduras, and far western Nicaragua.

Here’s what the storm looked like earlier today from space.

Landfall in Mexico

As of 4PM CDT Tuesday, NWS predicted PTC1 would make landfall in Mexico sometime within the next 24 to 36 hours as a tropical storm. They currently give it an 80% chance of formation.

At present, the storm exhibits wind speeds approaching tropical storm strength (39+ MPH). Tropical storm conditions could begin tonight or Wednesday along portions of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward 415 miles north of the center.

National Hurricane Center

So focus less on the track and more on the impact.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns, “Regardless of the exact track of the low, this system will have a large area of heavy rains. Expect moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center.”

Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast through midweek.

If PTC1 becomes a tropical storm, its name will be Alberto.

Double Trouble?

NHC’s website showed something unusual today. One possible tropical system could develop within the area vacated by another. Within days of each other!

NHC gives a 20% chance of the second storm developing in the yellow area with the red X.

But instead of moving into Mexico, they predict the second storm could move northward. That could make it a direct threat to Houston.

So check NHC’s weather forecasts daily during hurricane season. As PTC1 proves, weather can change quickly.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/18/24

2485 Days since Hurricane Harvey

NHC Issues Advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone One

6/17/24 – At 4PM CDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The disturbance in the Gulf has a 70 percent chance of tropical formation during the next two days.

NHC also issued a tropical storm watch for Port O’Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande and onward to Boca de Catan in Mexico.

If a tropical storm forms, they will call it Alberto.

A satellite photo taken this morning of Potential Tropical Cyclone One shows storm clouds already starting to wind around a broad area of low pressure centered over the Yucatan. It has been spinning rain north into Texas and Louisiana. But the main event starts tomorrow.

National Hurricane Center Atlantic-Wide Geocolor View, taken 6/17/24, early AM.

Moving NNW at 7 MPH with 40MPH Winds

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.  

NHC expects a turn toward the west-northwest Tuesday night or Wednesday. The system will likely approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday.

Current maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.

National Hurricane Center

Some slow strengthening is possible, The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday. Formation chance through:

  • 48 hours…high…70 percent.
  • 7 days…high…70 percent.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

Life-Threatening Flooding Likely in Mexico and Central America

“Regardless of development, several more days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.” 

The graphic below shows accumulations expected over the next five days.

Total expected rainfall from Tuesday through Sunday. Source: National Weather Service.

According to NHC, “Potential Tropical Cyclone One will produce “rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.”

Lake Houston Area Will See Far Less Rainfall

Locally, Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner predicts:

  • Coastal Counties: 7-9 inches (widespread), isolated totals over 12+ inches
  • I-10 corridor: 3-5 inches (widespread), isolated totals up to 7 inches
  • North of I-10: 3-4 inches (widespread), isolated totals up to 5 inches.

Lindner adds, “The most favorable time for heavy rainfall over southeast Texas will be from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon.”

Use the rainfall amounts above as average. Training bands can quickly result in much higher totals and flash flooding in small areas near other areas that see little rainfall.”

Watersheds Most at Risk

Where the heaviest rains fall will determine responses on area watersheds. Lindner feels most Harris County creeks and bayous can handle 4-6 inches of rainfall. However, he warns that if isolated higher totals exceed 8 inches in southern Harris County, we might see trouble on:

  • Clear Creek and its tributaries
  • Armand Bayou
  • Willow Spring Bayou
  • Big Island Slough
  • Taylor’s Bayou
  • Goose Creek
  • Berry Bayou
  • Hunting Bayou
  • Keegans Bayou
  • Willow Waterhole

Lake Report

At 5PM, the SJRA has lowered Lake Conroe by one-third of a foot.

The Coastal Water Authority has lowered Lake Houston by a full foot.

I asked Lindner how much rain he expected between the lakes. The short answer: 2-3 inches with isolated totals up to 4 inches. With that amount of lake lowering, he does not expect structural flooding. But there are other dangers.

The mouth of the Kingwood Diversion Ditch at River Grove Park shows how high sediment deposits have become. At Lake Houston’s normal level, that sand lurks just inches below the surface. Boaters have churned a temporary shallow channel through the sandbar with their props.

Mouth of Kingwood Diversion Ditch at River Grove Park on afternoon of 6/17/24 with lake down one foot.

But with all the sand coming down the West Fork from sand-mine breaches, that sediment you see above will likely increase during this storm.

Confluence of Spring Creek and West Fork (right) near US59 Bridge on 6/16/24

But the greatest immediate threat exists near the coast.

Coastal Warnings

Six to nine foot swells will be common throughout the Gulf for the next several days, according to NHC.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

  • Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX…2-4 ft
  • Galveston Bay…2-4 ft
  • Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX…1-3 ft
  • Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA…1-3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/17/24 at 5PM based on information from NHC and NWS

2484 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Flash Flooding Chances Increase for Tuesday, Wednesday

6/16/24 – 8 PM update – As of 8 PM, the National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of tropical formation to 70% from 50% for the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche.

Excessive rainfall and flash flooding chances are increasing for the middle part of the week. Coastal counties could see 8-11 inches in widespread areas with isolated totals topping 12 inches.

According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner:

  • The I-10 corridor could experience 5-8 inches (widespread) with isolated totals up to 10 inches
  • North of I-10, people will see 3-5 inches (widespread) with isolated totals up to 8 inches.
  • Much of the rainfall will come over a 36-48 hour period (Tuesday and Wednesday).
National Weather Service gives most of Harris County a 3 out of 4 chance for excessive rainfall.

All of this rain is in association with a tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of tropical formation for that red area in the Gulf to 70%.

Whether the storm gets a name or not, it will impact the Houston area in several ways.

Forecasts have been trending upward with rainfall amounts over the last 24 hours. Given the incoming tropical moisture combined with the potential for cell training and high hourly rainfall rates, flash flooding is becoming an increasing concern.

Sustained heavy rains will be possible from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday over the area.

High hourly rainfall rates will result in rapid onset flash flooding.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Uncertainty remains as to where any sustained banding features will form and how far inland the heavy rainfall threat may extend. Stay tuned for changes to the forecast.

Last week, NWS was predicting far less rain from this system.

Significant Rises Likely on Waterways

Significant rises on area creeks, bayous, and rivers will be likely given the rainfall forecast. Where maximum totals occur, overbank flooding will be possible on creeks and bayous. Rivers which are still elevated from the spring rainfall will also likely see additional rises. However, flooding will depend on the position, magnitude, and coverage of the heavier rains and the inland extent.   

Lake Conroe Being Lowered

In preparation, the San Jacinto River Authority continues to lower Lake Conroe. On Sunday morning, it was at 200.82 feet, several inches below its normal level of 201 feet. At 10 AM, SJRA was discharging 660 cubic feet per second.

Lake Houston Discharge Rate Jumps 7X

Downriver, the Coastal Water Authority increased the discharge rate from Lake Houston. The rate jumped from 1386 CFS to 9,905 CFS between 5 AM and 7 AM this morning.

Note steep jump in discharge rate at the far right.

Gusty Winds, Coastal Flooding, Dangerous Seas

As the much-advertised tropical weather event unfolds over the western Gulf of Mexico in the next 24 hours, Lindner anticipates increasing impacts, especially along the Texas Coast.

The plume of tropical moisture will arrive late tonight into Monday. Scattered showers will begin to work toward the coast tonight. Even greater moisture will flow inland Tuesday and Wednesday.

Banding thunderstorms and cell training will create potential for flash flooding. Models have trended upwards in the last 24 hours. The National Weather Service has given all areas south of I-10 a level 3 out of 4 flash flood risk from Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning.

Wind Forecast

According to Lindner, winds will begin to increase on Monday, but really ramp up Tuesday into Wednesday. Coastal areas will likely experience frequent gusts to gale force.

  • Coastal waters: 35-45mph
  • Coastal counties: 25-40mph
  • Inland: 25-30mph

Coastal Flooding Likely Mid-Week During High Tides

Lindner expects building seas and elevated tides to exceed coastal flood thresholds along the upper Texas coast, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Total water levels are forecasted to reach 4.5-5.5 feet above barnacle level along the Gulf facing beaches late Tuesday into Wednesday and 4.0-5.0 feet in Galveston Bay.

Minor coastal flooding is likely late Tuesday into Wednesday in the usual low lying coastal areas (Bolivar, west end of Galveston Island, Blue Water Highway, Tiki Island, San Leon, Seabrook, Shoreacres).

Water and debris may cover portions of HWY 87 near HWY 124 on Bolivar at high tide. Low lying coastal roads will likely be impacted and covered with sea water at times of high tide.

10-12 Foot Seas

Lindner also warns that extreme dangerous/hazardous marine conditions will develop across all waters Tuesday into Wednesday. Seas will build 5-9 feet on Tuesday offshore and 4-6 feet in bays. Then they will build 10-12 feet on Wednesday offshore and 5-7 feet in bays.

Sustained winds of 30-40mph with frequent gusts of 45mph will be common across our local waters. Expect frequent squalls and periods of heavy rainfall and reduced visibility. Small craft should be secured in port by late Monday and remain in port until conditions improve.  

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/16/24 based on information from Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, and NWS

2483 Days since Hurricane Harvey