Flood Watch, Warning Continue; May Be Extended

7/25/24 Noon – A flood watch and warning continue for the Lake Houston Area with more heavy rain expected. The San Jacinto East Fork and West Fork, Caney Creek and Lake Creek are all at or near flood stage due to even heavier rains earlier in the week.

Flood watches and warnings have been extended until late tonight and “may need be extended into Friday,” according Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner.

Both Lake Conroe and Lake Houston remain well above normal levels and are discharging water.

It’s been a wet year so far. Rainfall year to date is 57% higher than normal at Bush Intercontinental Airport. And while the tropics are currently quiet, sea surface temperatures remain well above average for this time of year.

See more details below.

San Jacinto East Fork

The worst flooding seems to be along the East Fork where water is into the moderate flood stage and still rising. NOAA predicts it will crest at 63.7 feet tomorrow.

Farther upstream at Cleveland, the Fire Department has warned of flooded low-water areas. But the river appears to be cresting.

Caney Creek near Splendora

Caney Creek near Splendora has peaked inches below the moderate flood stage and should start decreasing today.

Lake Creek Above the Woodlands

Lake Creek above The Woodlands is also flirting with flooding due to more than 10 inches of rain in the last three days. However, barring more heavy rainfall, the creek should now recede.

West Fork at US59

All the water that fell near The Woodlands is now working its way downstream to the Lake Houston Area. Minor lowland flooding last night is now receding.

Lake Conroe

The level in Lake Conroe is finally going down, but the SJRA continues to release more than 5,000 Cubic Feet per Second (CFS).

The SJRA reported a level of 201.88 earlier this morning.

Lake Houston

Lake Houston is 1.6 feet higher than normal and discharging 32,435 CFS. Ten thousand CFS can go through the existing flood gates. The rest is going over the spillway.

Rainfall Prediction

The National Weather Service predicts 3-6 inches of rain along the coastline, 2-4″ inches up to I-10, and up to 1.5 inches farther inland.

I’ve already received more than an inch in my rain gage so far today.

Flood Watch Remains in Effect

As a result of more rain falling on ground saturated by heavier rainfall earlier in the week, a Flood Watch remains in effect for Harris, Liberty, Galveston, Chambers and Fort Bend counties.

Rainfall Year-to-Date

So, how does all this rainfall compare to a normal year? The National Weather Service shows this graph for Bush Intercontinental Airport.

Normally, by this day in July, we get around 28 inches of rain. But year to date, we have received 44.27 – 57% more than normal – quite a change from last year’s drought.

Tropical Outlook

The National Hurricane Center currently shows no areas of interest in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. That’s good news. And they expect none for the next seven days – even better news.

However, forecasters warn that that could turn around in early August. Sea surface temperatures remain well above normal for this time of year.

The main development region between West Africa and the Caribbean remains 1-3 degrees Celsius above average. That translates to 1.8 to 5.4 degrees on the Fahrenheit scale.

So remember to keep those storm drains clear of debris from Beryl! And keep those floaties handy!

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/25/24

2522 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Guest Editorial: Where are the New Lake Houston Flood Gates?

7/24/24 – Note: This guest editorial by Kingwood resident Tony Lanson is timely. The Lake Houston Area is currently under yet another flood watch.

Why are the promised Lake Houston flood gates not completed? Why has the schedule slipped repeatedly? Will they really be constructed by 2028 – the latest target date? That’s 11 years after Harvey and five years later than originally promised. We need them to reduce flood risk.

The Need

Harvey devastated Lake Houston communities in 2017. It damaged more than 16,000 homes and 3,300 businesses. It also took more than a dozen lives in Kingwood alone.

The threat to our community’s sense of peace and wellbeing has eroded the value proposition for current and prospective Lake Houston residents and businesses. 

Repeated Delays

Our elected officials did their job. They responded to an urgent mandate to act. They:

  • Persevered through years of consultant reports and 11 engineering alternatives.
  • Dodged inflationary pressure.
  • Kept their focus as the project scope wandered.
  • Persevered through excuses and delays.
  • Found a way to fund the dam gates after the projected cost tripled. 

However, the project now seems stuck in a low gear. Project-level leadership seems to lack urgency to deliver. 

Has the Lake Houston Flood Gates project team been challenged to simplify the process and accelerate the schedule? Urgency seems to be missing – even after the May 2024 flood and Hurricane Beryl rekindled old fears and anxieties.

Early Missteps

From 2018 to 2023 the City of Houston and the CWA presided over contract firms, project scoping, design, costing, permitting, bidding and reviews. 

During that time the Lake Houston Flood Gates project was reduced to half the orginal scope when it was “found that the cost of the proposed gates exceeded the project’s budget” after factoring in reinforcement of the existing dam.  In 2022, City officials said they planned to start the project “later this year and complete construction within 18 months.”

However, the City of Houston could find no contractors to bid on the project because of “constructability risk.” Was there no constructability review during five years of engineering?

Thus, engineering and design for the project turned into a “start over.”

The Latest Plan

The new Lake Houston Flood Gates project has 11 tainter gates in the eastern, earthen portion of the dam instead of crest gates on the western portion. But the project’s cost tripled. 

Proposed location for new tainter gates
Looking N at Lake Houston Dam. New plan would place 11 Tainter gates near red circle.

On May 25, 2024, we learned the project could hopefully begin construction in 2025. Officials hinted at possible completion in 2028. 

Dave Martin, Dan Crenshaw, Charles Cunningham, Dan Huberty, Brandon Creighton and a host of others went back to the well and secured the money. But at best, construction will finish 11 years after Harvey. Palpable frustration exists in the Lake Houston community. 

The frustration is reasonable. We should challenge the explanations. Why is this project taking so long compared to similar projects?

Larger Projects Completed in Less Time at Lower Costs

Consider the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) project to construct the Wirtz and Starcke Dams simultaneously in 1949.

Each dam project alone was larger than the addition of 11 gates to the Lake Houston Dam. And both dams were completed in two years. 

Now, focus on changes to the Wirtz Dam flood gates. In 2023, the LCRA announced it would replace the nine original gates plus one that was added in 1974. That makes 10 gates in total. And each gate is larger than those proposed for Lake Houston. LCRA estimates completion in 2025.

Again, they are doing it in two years compared to Lake Houston’s current 11-year schedule. That should give everyone reason for pause ­– especially considering that the Wirtz gates are twice as big as the Lake Houston gates.  

Each gate will be fabricated on site. The old gates will be replaced individually, requiring coffer dams for each. Yet the Wirtz project will cost half as much as the Lake Houston project. 

Need to Improve Project Management

Can’t we do 10 smaller gates in less than three years? Especially when it’s the same gate replicated 10 times. Replication and standardization usually increase efficiency, reduce time, and cut costs. 

Is an optimization review or constructability review with prospective contractors planned this time to avoid another “no bid” situation? 

Is it time to ask if the Lake Houston Flood Gates project is being managed prudently with best project management practices? 

Good project management assures all stakeholders that the best effort is occurring. It sets reasonable expectations. And project transparency with the public goes a long way in generating trust. 

More gates on the Lake Houston dam will not make everyone safe in the event of another Harvey. But the gates will prevent people from flooding in smaller storms, which are much more frequent. 

Consider, for instance, the early May storm this year. It was a small fraction of Harvey. Yet thousands of homes had floodwater lapping at their foundations. 

Expeditious completion of the project would support peace of mind, well-being and prosperity in our community. We need that right now as the community still reels from Hurricane Beryl and contemplates the start of what experts predict will be an abnormally active hurricane season. 

Shouldn’t we have gotten ahead of this by now? Who will enforce the urgency to act? 

By Tony Lanson, Kingwood Resident

2521 Days since Hurricane Harvey

ReduceFlooding.com will be happy to publish the City’s or Coastal Water Authority’s point of view on this important topic.

Flood Watch Issued for Much of SE Texas Until Wednesday Evening

7/23/24 at 7PM – The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a flood watch for much of southeast Texas until at least Wednesday evening. They warn to keep storm drains clear of debris from Hurricane Beryl.

From National Weather Service/Houston as of 7PM 7/3/24

NWS already predicts the East Fork San Jacinto to reach the moderate flood stage. Other bayous and channels could follow, according to Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist.

Perfect Setup for Heavy Rains, Flooding

Heavy storms have pummeled the area north of Lake Houston and Lake Conroe for most of the day and are continuing.

A combination of increasing Gulf moisture, lift from an upper level trough over the region, and slow/training storm motions will produce a threat for heavy to excessive rainfall tonight into Wednesday.

RadarScope Pro Image from 6:38PM on 7/23/24.

Lakes Rapidly Rising

As a result, as of 7 PM, the level of:

  • Lake Houston has increased almost a foot
  • Lake Conroe has risen a half foot.

The Coastal Water Authority is discharging 18,613 cubic feet per second (CFS) from Lake Houston. And the SJRA is releasing 4801 CFS from Lake Conroe.

SJRA warns that heavy rainfall potential remains in place for the next two to three days.  The Lake Conroe outflow amount could possibly increase overnight if additional rain occurs in the watershed, they say.

Lake Conroe will continue to pass through storm water and runoff received in the Upper San Jacinto River Basin until Lake Conroe returns to normal conservation lake level of 201 feet.

Where to Find the Most Current Information

Monitor:

Rainfall Prediction: 3-5 Inches Per Hour Possible

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist had this to say about the flood watch: “Heavy rainfall is currently ongoing over portions of Montgomery County with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over much of the area west of I-45 and north of I-10.”

Ongoing activity should begin to weaken later this evening. However, rainfall amounts over the next 3-5 hours of 2-4 inches in an hour or less will be possible with the heavier storms.

He also expects that we will see thunderstorms that slowly progress inland from the Gulf. These storms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 3-5 inches per hour which is raising the flash flood risk for early Wednesday along and south of the I-10 corridor.

“It is possible that much of this activity could remain near the coast or just offshore, but it is close enough to warrant a close watch,” cautions Lindner. “Additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches can be expected over much of the area with amounts of 4-6 inches south of I-10.”

Lindner says he would not be surprised to see an isolated 10-inch amount somewhere given the air mass in place.

Monitor the Harris County Flood Warning System for the most current river/bayou flood conditions near you.

Flash flooding will be possible under the heavy rain cores as well as quick rises on area creeks and bayous.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

East Fork of the San Jacinto River

Heavy rainfall yesterday and again today will produce a significant rise along the river from above Cleveland to Lake Houston starting on Wednesday and lasting into late this week.

The river will rise above flood stage late Wednesday at FM 1485 and above moderate flood levels on Thursday.

NWS prediction for FM1485 and East Fork in New Caney

Low lying roads near the river will be impacted and FM 1485 will potentially be overtopped.  However, the current forecast for the river is well below levels experienced in May of this year, according to Lindner.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/23/24

2520 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Giant Mercer Basin on Cypress Creek Aiming for Completion This Fall

July 22 2024 – Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) still aims to complete the giant Mercer Stormwater Detention Basin between FM1960 and Cypress Creek just East of the Hardy Toll Road before the end of this year.

Pictures taken 7/22/24 Show Progress

Looking S toward FM1960 from over Mercer Basin. Hardy Toll Road cuts through upper right of frame.
Reverse angle looking N toward Cypress Creek in trees just north of the northern basin.
Looking West toward Hardy Toll Road at Southern Basin. FM1960 in upper left.

Compare these pictures of the Mercer Basin in February this year when clearing and construction was just getting started.

Fighting the Elements

All things considered – January floods, a derecho, May floods and Hurricane Beryl – contractors seem to be making good progress. Especially if you consider that I’ve already recorded 57 inches of rain in my gage in the first six and a half months of this year – more than we usually get in a full year.

How Big is It?

The Mercer Site covers 58 acres. It will contain twin, connected, dry-bottom basins totaling 512 acre feet.

One acre roughly equals the size of a football field without end zones. So, 512 acre feet would cover an area that large to a depth of 512 feet. That’s approximately the height of Two Allen Center downtown.

Of course, the basin won’t be 512 feet deep. It will likely be around 8 to 10 feet deep because it covers 58 acres minus room for maintenance roads.

History of Project

Harris County finalized acquisition of the property in August 2023. A $15.4 million grant obtained from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) in 2018 stipulates completion before the end of this year.

Additional funding comes from the 2018 Bond Program, which was approved by Harris County voters on August 25, 2018.

Layout and Location

The two maps below show the layout and location of the project.

Mercer Stormwater Detention Basin
HCFCD map of Mercer project
Mercer location
Mercer is about 8 miles upstream from the US59 bridge over the West Fork.

Cypress Creek joins Spring Creek before reaching US59.

Construction Details

Features include:

  • Concrete box culverts will equalize water levels between the two compartments. And a spillway will connect the northern basin to Cypress Creek.
  • A 54” outfall pipe will move water from the basin into Cypress Creek.
  • A 30’ wide berm will accommodate maintenance and future recreational amenities.

Part of a Bigger Solution

Mercer is one of several stormwater detention basin projects HCFCD is developing in the Cypress Creek watershed.

A regional drainage study for the watershed found that rising floodwaters in Cypress Creek back water up into tributaries and cause flooding there. The tributaries have sufficient stormwater conveyance or drainage capacity. Therefore, stormwater detention basins can help reduce the backwater issue.

The regional drainage study described here recommends nearly 25,000 acre-feet of additional stormwater detention in the watershed.

Mercer by itself won’t help the Lake Houston Area much in a major flood. It’s designed to help primarily homes and businesses in the area which you can see in the photos above.

But every little bit helps.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/22/2024

2519 Days since Hurricane Harvey

2024 Flood-Bond Update Shows Changed, Changing Priorities

July 21, 2024 – Last week, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) quietly shared this year’s flood-bond update with Commissioners Court. The update came during widespread power and internet outages from Hurricane Beryl that limited its visibility.

The flood-bond update details progress on the 2018 Flood Bond for the first time since the last update last October.

Combining the data in this flood-bond update with data from other sources reveals the impact of the County’s political divide and Equity Prioritization Indices. Both have affected projects in the Lake Houston area and Precinct 3 negatively.

But first some good news.

More Partner Funds Now Secured than Required by Original Bond

The total of secured funding now exceeds $5.2 billion. That includes the $2.5 billion approved by voters in 2018 plus $2.7 billion in other funding secured since then.

The additional funds include grants and matching funds from city, state and federal governments plus other local organizations, such as municipal utility districts. It also includes $87 million in Bond ID Z-07 – the Bond Program Reserve, formerly known as the Flood Resilience Trust.

Commissioners Court allocated this money to backstop bond funding before a massive infusion of funds from the General Land Office and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development in 2022.

The total amount now available exceeds total project costs in both the original bond estimate and a slightly revised project list released in a 2021 flood-bond update.

HCFCD says it is working on revising costs to reflect inflation and the rising cost of property acquisition since then. However, it appears that HCFCD did not include inflation-adjusted project estimates in the current update.

Dollars Spent vs Dollars Secured

Regardless, we are now at a point in the bond where available cash covers the original estimates. So looking at dollars spent vs. dollars secured gives us a reasonable feel for how close we are to completing flood-bond projects in various watersheds. See the bar graph below.

Compiled by combining 2024 Bond Update Appendix B on Page 10 with spending data obtained separately via FOIA request. See data in table below.

Brays and Greens are more than 80% complete. Five others are more than 50%.

Meanwhile, 15 others are less than 50%. And of those, 10 are less than 25%. The county’s largest watershed, the San Jacinto, is only 19% complete (“spent”).

The graph above does not include Carpenters Bayou. It was an anomaly at 1762%. The 2021 bond update included only half a million dollars for a study there. But HCFCD has spent almost $9 million so far. Including Carpenters in the bar graph distorted the scale and obscured the differences between the other watersheds. However, I did include it in the table below.

Compiled by combining Bond Update Appendix B on Page 10 with spending data obtained via FOIA request. County-wide projects not included.

Next month will mark the sixth anniversary of flood-bond approval. The bond was originally intended to be a 10-year program. So, totaling all these figures, we are about 40% done in 60% of the time. There’s certainly room for improvement on that front.

Projects in some watersheds are stalled while projects in others near completion. Take, for instance, the Kingwood Diversion Ditch and Taylor Gully Projects in the San Jacinto Watershed. The Kingwood Area Drainage Analysis identified them as the top two projects in Kingwood back in 2020.

But not a shovel full of dirt has been turned yet on the Diversion Ditch project. And a $1,000 excavation and removal contract on the Woodridge/Taylor Gully project was terminated last November when only one third complete.

Partisan Changes Negatively Impact Precinct 3

Another thing to look at: changes to projects (Dollar Increases or Decreases; Project Deletions or Additions). While a certain amount of changes are normal when dealing with rough, early estimates, in this case, the changes also reflect a partisan bias.

When calculating the differences, I compared projects by Bond ID in the 2024 flood-bond update to the original bond allocations in 2018.

Harris County has three Democratic commissioners and one Republican – Tom Ramsey in Precinct 3.

  • Thirty projects affecting the three Democratic Precincts increased by $162.6 million – $54.2 million per precinct on average. But projects in the lone Republican precinct increased only $27 million. Thus, the three Democrats each benefited twice as much from additions as the lone Republican.
  • Likewise, 12 projects in the three Democratic Precincts decreased by a total of $92.6 million or $30.6 million per precinct on average. But Ramsey’s precinct lost $40.5 million.
  • Ramsey lost $13.5 million more than he gained.
  • Ellis, Garcia and Briones each gained about $8 million more than they lost.

When watersheds crossed precinct boundaries, I split dollars evenly among them. For example, if a project increased in value by $10 million and benefited one Republican and one Democratic precinct, I allocated $5 million to each. While that may not be precisely accurate in all cases, more precise data is not readily available.

To see the evolution of the bond fund through various iterations during the last six years, see the Harris County Flood Control District tab on the ReduceFlooding Reports page.

Other Items of Note

I did not include Countywide Expenditures in the calculations above even though they took a large hit. Their decrease shows up in corresponding increases for watershed projects. And I was more interested in how those were skewed.

However, one item definitely deserves future exploration: the $50 million decrease in “Federal Grant Funded Volunteer Home Buyouts.” Typically, the Federal Government grants funds for specific purposes. Where did this money go? The 2024 flood-bond update does not say.

Also of note: HCFCD currently has 20 projects in construction or turnover. The District has spent more than $2 billion in bond and partnership funds out of the $5.2 billion now available.

The latest bond update points out that of 181 original projects, 42 have been completed and closed out.

Equity Being Redefined Again

Separate from the bond update, Commissioners approved an expansion of equity guidelines last week. Item 18 on the agenda discusses an expanded definition of “equity” that will be used to allocate future flood mitigation dollars. It includes three components:

  • Structural Equity – righting historical wrongs
  • Procedural Equity – implementing procedures, policies and programs for groups previously not considered.
  • Socio-emotionally Intelligent Equity – mitigates the impacts of interpersonal, individual, structural, systemic, and institutional racism and sexism.

More news to follow when I figure out how all that will affect flood-control-mitigation dollars which have historically correlated to flood damage more than sexism.

At the very least, the imposition of new metrics on projects will slow down project scoring and implementation. It’s additional overhead burden on already complex processes. But my real fear? More and more of the San Jacinto watershed budget will slip away to other watersheds.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/21/2024

2518 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Potential Secondary Crisis from Beryl: Blocked Drains, Gutters, Ditches

7/19/24 – With 4-5 inches of rain expected in the next few days, storm sewer inlets, ditches, and gutters blocked by tree debris from Beryl could form a secondary crisis. Especially if the downpours become intense enough to cause street flooding that floats debris.

A Widespread Issue

Jeff Miller from Elm Grove Village in Kingwood alerted me to this problem. Miller graciously allowed me to use some photos he sent. I won’t bother to caption them. They all show the same thing: storm debris that could get swept into storm drains or that blocks ditches.

However, I will feature ten from different villages in Kingwood that show how widespread the problem is. I could show a hundred. A drive around Kingwood earlier today confirmed that this problem exists throughout the community.

Photos from 7/19/24

And last, but certainly not least…

The culvert under this drive is totally blocked by debris from a tree that fell on resident’s house.

Some Neighborly Advice

The power outages from Beryl are bad enough. Don’t create another secondary crisis.

Debris in ditches, gutters and storm drain inlets can block orderly drainage and back water up into neighborhoods and homes…especially if the homes are not elevated much above street level.

Help yourself and your neighbors by making sure your debris pile doesn’t pour into the street or block your ditch. Ask tree companies and lawn maintenance providers to pile debris at least a foot back from the curb. Admittedly, that can be hard in the case of ditches. But please try to leave some room for the water to flow around.

Budget Impact Waiting Down the Road

A former Harris County Flood Control District executive confirmed that drains blocked by debris is a common problem. “It is a concern, especially with the rain predicted for the next few days. There is not much anyone can do about it now though.  Maybe Public Works can clean the drains later this year after things are back to normal.” Unfortunately, that could take time and money, creating another potential secondary crisis involving the City’s budget.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/19/24

2516 Days after Hurricane Harvey

GLO Approves $66.4 Million in Regional Mitigation Projects

7/18/2024 –  Today, Texas Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham, M.D., announced the Texas General Land Office (GLO) approved another $66,402,284 in regional mitigation projects.

The money will go toward projects that improve roads, water detention, drainage and sewer systems. The projects are within the cities of Baytown, Brenham, Centerville, Charlotte, Corpus Christi, Houston, Jasper, Plantersville, Seadrift and Waelder.

However, money will also go toward projects in Fort Bend, Grimes, Harris and Matagorda counties.

Projects Prioritized Locally

“Through the Regional Mitigation Program, the GLO enabled local prioritization. That will have a tremendous impact across multiple regions,” according to GLO spokesperson Brittany Eck.

“The GLO works with Texas communities to strengthen and build infrastructure, so we can help protect and improve lives for local residents,” said Commissioner Buckingham.

“Many of these communities were recently impacted by Hurricane Beryl’s devastating winds and flood waters,” continued Buckingham.

“Getting and using federal grant funds can be very complicated. But the GLO works side by side with local leaders to push past the federal paperwork and get funds moving forward.”

Making Communities More Resilient

Buckingham emphasized that the funds should make Texas communities “more resilient against future disasters.”

The table below shows the list of approved grants.

Fix 7.18 Table Update

For more detailed project descriptions, please click here.

The one project in Houston: a $10.8 million stormwater detention basin in Sunnyside, a small community near West U.

Money Prioritized by Councils of Governments

These funds come from $1,166,997,000 in Community Development Block Grant Mitigation (CDBG-MIT) funds from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. HUD designated the money local councils of governments (COGs) through the GLO.

The projects themselves do not have regional benefits. The term “regional mitigation projects” applies more to the type of organizations that sponsor the projects.

The Houston-Galveston Area Council (HGAC) is one such group. Each Council of Government with HUD-designated eligible counties developed a method of distribution (MOD) for allocation of funds to units of local governments. Each COG developed their MOD through extensive public participation.

HUD defines mitigation as activities that increase resilience to disasters and reduce or eliminate the long-term risk of loss of life, injury, damage to and loss of property, and suffering and hardship, by lessening the impact of future disasters.

HUD requires that at least 50% of total funds must be used for activities benefiting low-to moderate-income (LMI) persons. For more information, please visit recovery.texas.gov/mitigation.\

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/18/2024 based on a press release from the GLO

2515 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Winds from Beryl Caused More Damage than Rains

7/17/24 – After days of uncertainty about the trajectory of Hurricane Beryl, at 6 AM on 7/9/24, radar indicated that the eye of the storm had moved onshore between Lake Jackson and Bay City. The National Weather Service (NWS) had issued Hurricane, Tropical Storm, and Storm Surge Warnings for much of the upper Texas Coast.

In the North Houston area – including Kingwood, Humble, Huffman and Spring – NWS issued a Tropical Storm Warning, a Flash Flood Warning, a Flood Watch, and a Tornado Watch.

From Radarcope Pro at 5:49 AM on 7/9/2024 as Beryl moved onshore.

When the storm had passed the Lake Houston Area, it became clear that Beryl’s winds did far more damage than any flooding from its rains.

I’m writing this post for the historical record and also for readers to share with families who may live out of the area.

Wind Damage: Beryl’s Lasting Legacy in Lake Houston Area

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at 4 AM on July 9th, Beryl had maximum sustained winds near 80 MPH. At Bush Intercontinental Airport, maximum sustained winds reached around 65 MPH with gusts up to 90MPH…for hours.

Those winds took a terrible toll on the area’s abundant, majestic trees. The very thing that makes the Lake Houston area exceptionally beautiful also makes it very vulnerable to storms like Beryl. See below.

South Woodland Hills Drive near River Grove Park after Beryl. Note downed trees pointing in different directions.

Were Tornadoes Present?

We may never know whether minor tornadoes were embedded within the northeast fringes of Beryl. The pattern of tree damage above suggested there could have been.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, acknowledged the possibility, but felt the more likely explanation was shifting winds as the storm moved through the area.

When asked to explain the jumbled pattern of tree damage in the photo above, he said, “Winds in Northeast Harris County would have changed from ENE well ahead of the center to ESE as the center entered western Harris County. Then they would have changed to SSW as the center passed to the northwest and north.”

“While NE Harris County did not go through the eye and a 180 degree wind shift, there was still enough shifting of the winds to cause trees to fall in different directions,” added Lindner. “Any tornadoes in the outer circulation would have been small and lasted less than a few minutes. That is common with tornadoes in landfalling tropical systems.”

Lindner concluded, “Mostly just strong winds caused all the damage. There were a few tornadoes in the outer bands early Monday…prior to sunrise, but the widespread winds of 45-55 MPH and gusts of 75-85 MPH did most of the damage.”

Losing Power for Extended Periods

Thousands of trees fell in the Lake Houston area, knocking out power for more than a week to entire neighborhoods. CenterPoint estimated that Beryl left more than 2.2 million people without electricity.

Fallen trees also crushed roofs, blocked streets, and trapped people in sweltering neighborhoods as their ice melted and food rotted.

In the early days after the storm, the few open gasoline stations had impossibly long lines. I observed two stretching for more than a half mile.

Local businesses and restaurants were shuttered. So was Deerbrook Mall.

With no electricity, Wi-Fi systems went down and people lost access to internet services.

Cell towers that survived quickly became overburdened. They often stopped working sporadically and mysteriously, blocking communication with the outside world and worried families.

At the very least, they made communication painfully slow. People were in the dark, literally and figuratively…unless they had backup generators. And it wasn’t long before many of those started to fail also.

Faced with heat exhaustion, hunger, and heartbreak, people began demanding answers. Frustration turned into anger.

Tree punctured this roof in at least two places.
Forest Cove barbecue area goes down for the count.

Stately trees snapped like toothpicks.

Herb Hudson Park in Kings Forest.
Tree blocked Laurel Garden Drive for days after storm. Another blockage around the corner left people in the middle with no way in or out for a period of time.
A reader’s home nearly bisected.
Power pole on Woodland Hills Drive snapped, knocking out power to several subdivisions

As people began clearing downed trees from their yards and roofs, they piled the debris at curbs. That made driving treacherous, especially at night with streetlights and traffic lights knocked out.

9-foot-tall debris pile tumbling into Valley Manor Drive

At noon yesterday, three shopping centers on Kingwood Drive near US59 were still without power.

Exhausted linemen turned their parking lots into corporate lunch rooms.

Power and tree company trucks filled the lot of this commercial center during the noon hour.
Lunch break and a chance for linemen to cool down in air-conditioned cabs for a few minutes.
Then it was back to work, trimming more vegetation from overgrown power-line corridors and repairing damaged lines.

Problems Persist

Ten days after Beryl, many areas remain without power. And on many of those days, FEMA issued nonstop Excessive Heat Warnings, as heat indexes crept well over the 105 degree threshold.

For the first time since starting this blog, I could not post stories. Without electricity, I lost my Wi-Fi. None of the usual backup locations, like Starbucks, were available – even after trees were cleared from the roads.

Cellular communications were not a backup either. They kept cutting in and out.

Gasoline was impossible to get for days. That limited my ability to explore damage in surrounding areas.

And when I could finally move around, I couldn’t recharge batteries for my drone or camera – until a neighbor with a backup generator found a supplier selling propane. Then the neighbor volunteered to recharge the batteries for me.

Life has just begun its long, slow return to normalcy. After power is restored to everyone, we still have a massive cleanup effort in front of us.

Lessons of Beryl

As bits and pieces of my life came back together, three thoughts struck me.

  1. We’re all in this together. I observed an outpouring of warmth from neighbors and friends. We constantly checked on each other to see if we could help each other in any way.
  2. Linemen, often from other states, toiled ceaselessly to help restore our power. They exemplify the spirit of “neighbors helping neighbors” that made this county great.
  3. In stark contrast, the glimpses of attack-dog, political discourse I got during the prolonged outage seemed strangely out of touch with the reality around me. Why was no one talking about hardening our infrastructure to avoid future disasters?

It’s something to ponder as we move into election season. Now…back to business.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/17/2024

2514 Days since Hurricane Harvey

PS – while trying to post this, I experienced six brief internet outages.

 

Tropical Storm Warning, Flood Watch for Inland Harris County

7/7/24, 10:30 AM – The National Weather Service (NWS) and FEMA have issued a tropical storm warning that includes Houston, Kingwood and Spring.

Beryl is moving closer to the Texas Coast and turning a little more northward. Although it has not yet re-intensified into a hurricane, the National Hurricane Center predicts it will, and that it could even turn into a Category 2 before landfall. The center will likely pass near the west side of Houston.

NWS and FEMA have also issued a flood watch that will last until 7AM on Tuesday, July 9. It includes most of SE Texas.

Beryl position at 8:30 AM CDT.  A turn toward the NNW and N is likely today before Beryl reaches the coast.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Expected in North Houston Tonight

Tropical storm force winds could arrive this evening. The high winds will spread inland toward the I-10 corridor by early Monday morning. They should reach the HWY 105 corridor by sunrise Monday.

So authorities urge you to finish hurricane prep as soon as possible.

Re-Intensification into Hurricane Possible

According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “Beryl is starting to move into more favorable conditions for development and if/when an inner core forms…more rapid intensification will be possible.”

NHC forecasts that Beryl will make landfall at 85mph. However, they also say that winds could reach 100mph.

In inland Harris County, winds could average 45-55 MPH with gusts to 80 MPH.

“There remains the potential for fairly significant intensification of Beryl in the last 12 hours prior to landfall.”

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Prolonged Power Outages Predicted

Lindner warns the public to be prepared for extended power outages. Widespread power outages are now likely over a large part of the area on Monday.

Downed trees and tree limbs as well as damage to roofs, windows, etc. will all be possible.

Centerpoint issued a press release saying that it is already mobilizing crews.

All outdoor objects should be safely secured by this evening in the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas.

Tropical storm force winds will reach the coast this evening. They will spread inland toward the I-10 corridor by early Monday morning and reach the HWY 105 corridor by sunrise Monday.

Excessive Rainfall and Flooding Potential

Widespread rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches are likely along and to the right of the track of Beryl, with isolated higher amounts under bands where training occurs. Banding may continue into Monday night and possibly Tuesday.

The heaviest rainfall will likely be west of I-45 on Monday. High rainfall rates in bands will produce urban flooding and rapid rises on area creeks and bayous.

Some flooding of creeks, bayous and rivers will be possible with the forecasted rainfall. River responses will continue into mid- to late week.

FEMA’s flood watch lasts through Tuesday morning. It says, “Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.”

Expect street flooding, as well as rises along area rivers, creeks, streams, and bayous.

Other Dangers Near Coast

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) cautions that there is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from the north entrance to the Padre Island National Seashore to Sabine Pass. That includes Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should follow any advice given by local officials and follow evacuation orders.

Expect 4-6 feet of surge in Matagorda Bay and 3-5 feet in Galveston Bay.

NHC also say that rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water.

Finally, NHC says that a few tornadoes could occur along the middle and upper Texas Coast through tonight, and across eastern Texas and western Louisiana on Monday.

Lake Report

At this moment, Lake Houston is releasing 9,626 CFS…the most the lake’s old gates can release at one time.

Lake Conroe is not pre-releasing any water; the lake is currently 9 inches below its normal level. The SJRA’s models predict that should be enough to handle the expected rainfall north of the lake. Let’s hope they are right.

For the Most Up-to-the-Minute Information,..

Monitor what’s happening near you on the Harris County Flood Warning System.

Track the status of the storm at the National Hurricane Center website.

The National Weather Service is the most reliable source for local weather information and warnings. It also predicts when flood peaks will arrive.

To monitor the status of Lake Conroe levels/releases, visit the San Jacinto River Authority website.

To monitor the status of Lake Houston levels/releases, visit the Coastal Water Authority website.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 10AM on 7/7/24

2504 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Beryl Update, Saturday AM

7/6/24 – As of 7 AM on Saturday morning, Beryl was centered in the Gulf of Mexico. Once a powerful Cat 5 hurricane, the storm emerged from its trek across the Yucatan as a tropical storm. However, it will likely re-intensify into a hurricane just before making landfall. The storm is about to enter an area of low wind sheer and high water temperatures.

Likely Landfall Near Matagorda Bay

According to the National Hurricane Center, Beryl will most likely come ashore between Matagorda Bay and Corpus Christi. But all of Houston is now in the cone of uncertainty. That means we have an equal chance of taking a direct hit from the storm.

Heavy Rain Threat

Hurricane watches and storm surge warnings are up for most of the Texas Coast up to High Island. But the most likely impact in the Lake Houston Area will be heavy rains. At this hour, the National Weather Service predicts 4-8 inches. But Jeff Lindner, the Harris County Meteorologist warned that isolated totals up to 15 inches are possible. That’s as much as the area north of us received in the early May flood of this year.

Overall, NWS says we have a slight to moderate risk for excessive rainfall in the next five days.

Flash Flood Threat

Arrival Time in Houston Area

We should begin to feel the effects of the storm Sunday evening.

Rain from the storm could linger for a day or two as Beryl becomes a tropical depression and the center of the storm curves north of us before heading to the northeast.

Inundation Areas

NOAA issued this map for Harris County. It shows possible areas of inundation. NOAA urged people in affected areas to follow evacuation warnings.

Lakes Not Being Lowered at this Hour

At this hour (9AM Saturday), the SJRA is not lowering Lake Conroe. Nor is the Coastal Water Authority lowering Lake Houston. However, the City of Houston did issue a warning yesterday afternoon that it might lower Lake Houston.

The good news: there’s little chance that we will experience tropical storm force winds this far north.

For the Latest Updates

For the latest watches and warnings associated with Beryl, consult the National Hurricane Center website. They update it every few hours. And the next few hours will be critical. There’s still a chance that the storm could shift more toward Houston.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/6/24 based on information from NHC, NWS and Harris County.

2503 Days since Hurricane Harvey