NOAA Issues Highest Hurricane Season Forecast Ever

May 23, 2024 – This morning, NOAA issued its highest hurricane season forecast ever. The extreme predictions are consistent with earlier forecasts by other organizations. They also exceed NOAA’s own forecasts from 2005 and 2010, two previous record-setting years.

NOAA’s forecast underscores the importance of starting your preparations early. Hurricane season begins next week.

Reasons Behind Predictions

In issuing the forecast, NOAA pointed to a combination of several factors: extremely high sea surface temperatures, the onset of La Niña, an above-normal West African monsoon and extremely high levels of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE).

To sum up, more storms will come off the African coast. High sea surface temperatures will intensify them. And a reduction in shear normally associated with La Niña will let them blossom into tropical events. The high ACE levels confirm that the elements above are likely to combine in dangerous ways.

NOAA says it is currently seeing sea surface temperatures in May normally associated with August.

2024 By the Numbers

The chart below shows the number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes (Cat 3, 4 or 5) that NOAA predicts.

NOAA Predictions one week before start of 2024 hurricane season.

NOAA forecasts 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, they predict 8 to 13 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher). And of those, they predict 4 to 7 will become major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).

The chart also shows the degree of confidence in the “above normal” prediction: 85%. The probability of an average or below normal season totals only 15%.

ACE Explained

At the press conference, a NOAA scientist explained how accumulated cyclone energy is measured. Forecasters add up the wind velocity measured at reporting stations every six hours, square the result, and divide by 10,000 to make the result more manageable.

The accumulated cyclone energy measured this year is the second highest ever.

NOAA Press Conference

New Cone Graphic Will Include Watches and Warnings

To protect lives, NOAA is enhancing communication, providing new tools for hurricane forecasting, and upgrading its systems.

For instance, the familiar “cone forecast” graphics will take on a new look this year. The maps will include watches and warnings associated with a storm. These can extend outside the cone of uncertainty

The old cones indicated only the probable centerlines of storm paths. But the width of a storm can create impacts far outside the cone. See below.

New NOAA Cone Graphic this year will feature watches and warnings

NOAA also warned this morning that threats can linger even after a storm has passed. For instance, rising water from heavy rains can create inland flooding that traps people in vehicles. It’s not only about storm surge. Remember: Turn around, don’t drown.

Ninety percent of storm-related fatalities occur from water.

NOAA

Many people are also killed during cleanup when they leave their homes too soon. Listen to local authorities.

They also reminded people to make sure they operate generators outdoors. Many die from carbon monoxide poisoning when operating generators indoors or in garages.

Seasonal Forecast Not a Landfall Prediction

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. However, other forecasters have predicted that less wind sheer associated with La Niña will let more storms enter the Gulf or form in the Gulf.

This new updated hurricane strike chart shows landfalls since 1950. Hurricanes can and have struck almost every point on the U.S. Gulf and East coasts. It only takes one storm to alter your life forever. So…

The Message: Start Preparing Now

The time to prepare for hurricane season is NOW. NOAA noted during the press conference that every Category 5 storm they have monitored was a tropical storm or less just three days earlier. That means you have only about 60 hours to prepare for and/or evacuate from the deadliest storms.

People with health or mobility issues need to take special precautions. NOAA offers extensive advice for hurricane preparation which you can find on this page in English and Spanish.

I’ve also provided a large number of links to specialized websites that focus on different aspects of preparedness. They include such things as checklists for generators, vehicles, kids, valuables, pets, etc. Look under the Preparedness heading on this Links Page.

In addition to the Atlantic seasonal outlook, NOAA also issues seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern Pacific, central Pacific and western north Pacific hurricane basins. 

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2024 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/23/24

2459 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Past Catching Up With Montgomery County

5/23/24 – The past may be catching up with Montgomery County. Heavy rains earlier this month may have flooded more homes in Montgomery County than Harris.

For decades, many Montgomery County leaders refused to acknowledge that they had a flooding problem. Neither, for that matter, did they seem exceptionally concerned about the downstream impact that lax regulations and enforcement had on flooding in Harris County.

For instance, they failed to:

  • Establish a flood control district.
  • Keep drainage channels clear and well maintained.
  • Update floodplain data from the 1980s.
  • Update their subdivision and drainage criteria regulations.
  • Close loopholes that let developers avoid building stormwater detention basins.
  • Fund the inspection of new infrastructure to ensure it complied with regulations.
  • Adequately regulate sand mining.

In fact, they encouraged exponential growth of sand mining by giving miners ag and timber exemptions on their real estate taxes, which the Texas Comptroller says they are not entitled to.

Flooded subdivision near West Fork San Jacinto in Montgomery County. Photo 5/22/24.

Floodplains as a Shifting Target

As a result of all these issues, flooding problems got worse over time. People who had built homes and even entire developments too close to rivers and streams flooded repeatedly. Homes deteriorated and lost value.

Young first-time homebuyers and other low-income people snapped them up, hoping they wouldn’t flood. In some cases, the homeowners didn’t even think they needed flood insurance because of the out-of-date flood maps. Many lost life savings and lived in deplorable conditions until they could scrimp together enough savings to fix their homes.

Many also sought buyouts and disaster relief. But such expenses usually fall on the federal government. So Montgomery County had little incentive to change on that count.

As a result of shortsighted policies and willful blindness, some MoCo leaders presided over the decay of once-proud homes into flood-ravaged housing stock.

And now, that damaged housing stock has created festering eyesores that may tarnish the image of the county as a destination for those trying to flee Harris County’s problems.

Flooded street one mile from West Fork San Jacinto in Montgomery County. Photo 5/22/24.

Self-Destructive Policies Hit Home

The self-destructive policies listed above have become…well…self destructive.

Leaders of decades past could explain away Harvey. “A 1000 year storm!”

But what about the no-name storm of May 2024? Ten-year rains produced so-called “50-year flooding” that rose higher than floodwaters from Tropical Storm Imelda – a greater than 500-year storm. MoCo math strikes again.

I drove for six hours through Montgomery County yesterday, visiting one flooded neighborhood after another. As victims continued to drag waterlogged drywall, carpet, insulation and furniture to the curb, they did not have good things to say about some elected officials.

FEMA Disaster Recovery officials swarmed neighborhoods like this today (5/22/24).

Downriver from the scene above, the main drainage channel through a new development called Evergreen has turned into a river of mud because of rampant erosion. It appears to have no:

  • Silt fences.
  • Backslope interceptor swales.
  • Grass on the sides of ditches.
Evergreen in Montgomery County at SH242 and FM1314 drains into West Fork below the flooded homes above. Did the erosion here reduce the conveyance of the river, back water up and contribute to flooding?

Will Change Come Anytime Soon?

Yes, the past may be catching up with Montgomery County. But change must come from within the county. Harris County can’t dictate it.

The final figures are not yet in. But based on an unscientific “driving around” survey, it appears that Montgomery County suffered as much flooding as Harris County did this May – if not more.

This should be a wake-up call for a course correction by Montgomery County leaders before it’s too late.

Since taking office a short while ago, newly elected MoCo Precinct 4 Commissioner Matt Gray has fought hard to upgrade MoCo standards. The rest of Montgomery County drains through his precinct. Perhaps this event will open the eyes of his fellow Commissioners and County Judge.

We’re all in this together. Even the people north of Lake Conroe will live downstream from others in fast-growing, surrounding counties someday as the region expands relentlessly outward.

The sand mines will follow that growth. Get ready. They’re coming.

San Jacinto River, blocked by sand, now flows through abandoned West Fork sand mine, sending even more sediment downriver.

Dozens of Montgomery County homes flooded downstream from the fiasco in the photo above. Sedimentation may have played a role as it has in the past. It’s just too early to tell.

The time to reach out and work together is now. Not after MoCo math and stuck-in-the-past policies start to look attractive to commissioners and judges in surrounding Liberty, Waller, Grimes, Walker and San Jacinto Counties.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/23/24

2359 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

All River Levels Falling, Flood Danger Over, But…

May 21, 2024 – After a second round of May floods (and the third this year), all river levels are falling today. The East Fork, West Fork and main stem of the San Jacinto River are finally falling this morning. So are the water levels in Lake Conroe and Lake Houston.

But sedimentation will likely be a problem when floodwaters totally recede.

Gage Readings For Lake Conroe

The gates at Lake Conroe are still open, but only releasing 1,599 Cubic Feet per Second (CFS). That’s about a twelfth of what the San Jacinto River Authority released at the peak of this second wave of May floods.

The graph below shows that the lake level is slowly approaching its normal conservation pool of 201 feet.

Note distances to flowage easement and top of dam. Homes around lake should be built above flowage easement.

All Gage Readings on West Fork Falling

In response, the West Fork at US59 fell below flood stage yesterday evening and continues to fall.

River Grove Park is draining, but the soccer fields are not yet playable.

River Grove Park draining on 5/20/24 at 5PM after flood peak passed

At West Lake Houston Parkway, the West Fork is well within its banks and falling.

Readings on East Fork

Upstream on the East Fork at SH105, the East Fork crest has passed and the river continues to fall.

At FM2090, the East Fork is 4 feet below flood stage and falling.

The East Fork fell below flood stage yesterday afternoon at FM1485 and continues to fall.

Lake Houston and Below

At the FM1960 bridge over Lake Houston, the level continues to fall well below flood stage, but is still about a foot above normal.

At the Lake Houston dam, water levels are also falling, but the lake is also about a foot above the spillway.

Floodwaters are still being released from the lake via both the gates and spillway.

The gates can release 10,000 CFS. That means about another 7,500 CFS are going over the spillway.

Downstream, on the main stem of the San Jacinto at Highway 90, the river is well below flood stage and continuing to fall.

West Fork Still Flowing Through Abandoned Sand Pit

That’s all great news. But the West Fork is still flowing through an abandoned sand pit near the Hallett Mine. You can see the impact at the confluence of the West Fork and Spring Creek.

Confluence of Spring Creek (left) and West Fork San Jacinto (Right) on 5/20/24 at 5 PM.

Can Water Moving at 5 MPH Transport Sand?

I measured debris coming out of the pit. It was moving at approximately 5 miles per hour (MPH).

Despite what some miners claim, 5 MPH should be more than enough to carry sand downriver.

Below is an industry-standard graph that shows the speed necessary to erode, transport and deposit sand/sediment of different particle sizes. Hydrologists and geologists call it a Hjulström curve, named after Filip Hjulström (1902–1982), the man who developed it.

After converting centimeters per second to miles per hour, I superimposed the speed of the river as a blue line over the graph.

The scientific Unified Soil Classification System defines sand as particles with a diameter of 0.074 to 4.75 millimeters. I rendered that range in red at the bottom of the chart.

Blue indicates speed of water. Red indicates range of sand sizes.

Floodwater moving at 5 MPH can transport the entire range of sand sizes according to the Hjulström curve. You can see it in the photo above.

The abandoned pit captured by the river is about a mile long and a half-mile wide.

The river will need to recede before we can see exactly how much moved down to the West Fork between Humble and Kingwood, or settled at the mouth of the river near Lake Houston.

In fairness, some of the sediment deposited downstream came from natural erosion from riverbanks. But there was also unnatural erosion from development and (I have heard) other mines. It is impossible to apportion responsibility precisely.

What we can safely say is that sand mining practices have increased sedimentation downstream and few people seem eager to fight the industry … even as we get ready to launch another round of dredging that will cost taxpayers $34 million.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/21/24

2457 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

FEMA Disaster Assistance Available

5/20/24 – A disaster declaration by Governor Abbott that covers May flood and windstorm damage has been partially approved by President Biden. That means FEMA disaster Assistance is now available for people who suffered damage in the Lake Houston Area plus Harris, Montgomery, Liberty and four more counties.

This post explains eligibility, benefits, and how to apply.

After inspection, people can be eligible for a number of benefits, including:

  1. $750 in serious needs assistance
  2. Displacement assistance for temporary housing
  3. Home Repair Assistance
Home damage from East Fork in May 2024 flooding

In addition, money may become available to governmental entities for mitigation assistance. Harris County will hold a special session of Commissioners Court tomorrow, in part, to discuss contracts for disaster response, debris removal and more.

Text of FEMA Press Release

AUSTIN – Texans who sustained damage from the recent severe storms, straight-line winds, tornadoes, and flooding that began April 26 may be eligible for disaster assistance under FEMA’s Individuals and Households Program. Currently, residents living in Harris, Liberty, Montgomery, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity and Walker counties may be eligible for disaster assistance.

FEMA’s disaster assistance offers new benefits that provide flexible funding directly to survivors when needed the most. In addition, a simplified process and expanded eligibility allows Texans access to a wider range of assistance and immediate funds for serious needs.

New Benefits for Immediate Funds
  • Serious Needs Assistance, a $750 payment for households for essential items will now be provided in all disasters receiving Individual Assistance to help people make ends meet.
  • Displacement Assistance, a new benefit that will provide people with up-front funds to assist with immediate housing options of their choice, to keep people housed.

Serious Needs Assistance and Displacement Assistance are both funded after a completed inspection confirms eligibility.

Apply to FEMA

Survivors can apply to FEMA in several ways including online at DisasterAssistance.gov, downloading the FEMA App for mobile devices, or calling the FEMA Helpline at 800-621-3362. Calls are accepted every day from 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. CDT. Help is available in most languages. If you use a relay service, such as video relay (VRS), captioned telephone or other service, give FEMA the number for that service. To view an accessible video about how to apply visit: Three Ways to Register for FEMA Disaster Assistance – YouTube.

Additional Assistance and Benefits
  • Streamlined Application Requirements so people can apply to SBA and FEMA at the same time.
    • Support for Underinsured People for the first time to help them cover aspects of home repair that insurance companies won’t pay for, but they can’t afford on their own, up to the full $42,500.
  • Simplified Assistance for Entrepreneurs by providing self-employed people with some initial financial support to replace disaster-damaged tools and equipment to help them land on their feet.
    • Ex.: computers if you are a gig worker, lawnmower if you are a landscaper
  • Expanded Habitability Criteria to help people make their homes safer and cleaner post-disaster and so they can repair all aspects of their home post-disaster.
    • Previously, if a home had a leaky roof pre-disaster, that area of the home wouldn’t qualify.
  • Made Accessibility Improvements to help people with disabilities improve their living conditions by making their homes even more accessible than they were pre-disaster.
  • Streamlined Temporary Housing Assistance Applications by reducing documentation requirements for applicants who need to extend their stay in FEMA-supported temporary housing.
  • Simplified the Process for Appeals so people who wish to appeal FEMA’s decisions will no longer need to provide a signed, written appeal letter to accompany the supporting documentation.
  • Computer Assistance for people who need to repair or replace disaster-damaged computers.
Rental Assistance for Temporary Housing

If you currently reside in Harris, Liberty, Montgomery, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity and Walker counties and suffered damage to your primary residence, FEMA may be able to provide rent for a temporary place to live while you are displaced. Rental assistance is intended to cover monthly rent, security deposit and cost of essential utilities such as electricity and water.

Major Repairs and Out-of-Pocket Expenses

FEMA’s Individuals and Household Program assistance is intended to help jumpstart your recovery. Here are some examples of basic needs:

  • Home Repair Assistance may be provided to homeowners to repair the structural parts of your home. This includes windows, doors, floors, walls, ceilings, cabinets, heating, ventilation and air-conditioning system (HVAC), utilities (electrical, plumbing and gas systems) and entrance ways. FEMA may also reimburse for the actual cost to repair or replace your furnace, private well and septic system that was damaged or destroyed by the disaster.

For the latest information visit fema.gov/disaster/4781. Follow the FEMA Region 6 Twitter account at twitter.com/FEMARegion6 or on Facebook at facebook.com/FEMARegion6/. 

Here is a PDF of FEMA’s press release that you can print and give to friends, neighbors and family members who may not have power.

Status of Other Counties Affected by Storms

The Governor’s press release states that presidential approval of the disaster request for other counties remains under review. Many counties are still collecting damage estimates.

Types of Eligible Expenses

Abbott’s press release also states that qualifying Texans who sustained damage may apply for FEMA Individual Assistance Program funding to assist with expenses, such as “temporary housing, emergency home repairs, uninsured and underinsured personal property losses, disaster legal services, disaster unemployment assistance, and medical, dental, and funeral expenses caused by the disaster.” 

Hazard Mitigation Component

President Biden’s approval also authorizes additional FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grant Program resources to be made available. It’s not clear yet where that money would go or how it would be spent.

Harris County Commissioner’s Court will hold a special meeting tomorrow, Tuesday, May 21, 2024. On the Agenda, Lina Hidalgo, Harris County Judge has requested a discussion and possible action related to the disaster.

The discussion will include contracts for disaster response, debris removal, and recovery.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/20/24

2456 Days since Hurricane Harvey and two weeks since the last disaster

West and East Forks of San Jacinto Flooding Again

May 19, 2024 – For the second time this month, the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River are flooding. The East Fork crested last night about 1.5 feet below the prediction. However, the West Fork is still rising at US59. Parts of River Grove Park and the turnaround under US59 are already flooded. And the National Weather Service predicts floodwaters will go even higher.

Meanwhile, the West Fork continues to run through an old Hallett sand pit that was sold in January.

Here’s what you can expect if you live near the rivers.

East Fork Crest Moving Toward Lake Houston

Low-lying areas along the East Fork began flooding yesterday at FM1485. Earlier, the East Fork flooded near Cleveland and Plum Grove. As the crest moves downriver, it is affecting communities differently. Exactly how depends on many factors, such as the conveyance of the river at different points, sediment accumulations, proximity of homes to the river and more.

Yesterday, water was coming across part of FM1485 where it crosses the East Fork and parallels SH99. Today, the entire east bound section of FM1485 was blocked by floodwaters.

East Fork San Jacinto at approximately 4:30 PM on 5.16.24
East Fork San Jacinto at approximately 4:30 PM on 5.16.24

As of 6 PM, May 19, floodwaters are declining in this reach of the river. The crest has moved downstream toward Lake Houston.

Harris County’s Flood Warning System shows the river crested last night but was still well above flood stage as of noon today.

Farther upstream, at FM2090, the river has already returned to its banks.

All this is the result of another 3-5″ of rain falling earlier in the week upstream in the watershed on grounds that were already saturated from torrential rains and flooding earlier this month.

NWS Issues Flood Warning for West Fork until Tuesday Morning

While the East Fork is falling at this hour, the West Fork is still rising. At 1:34 PM Sunday, the National Weather Service issued a flood warning for the West Fork near Humble affecting Harris and Montgomery Counties.

Communities affected include: Porter, Sendera Ranch Road, Conroe, Kingwood, Humble, Sheldon.

Only minor flooding is forecast.

National Weather Service Flood Warning

NWS will issue its next statement Monday morning at 7:45 AM CDT.

The FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS: At 49.3 feet, minor lowland flooding begins in the vicinity of the gauge at US59. The north side turnaround at US 59 begins to flood. Low points in surrounding areas also begin to flood.

At 12:45 PM CDT Sunday, the river had risen to 49.2 feet.

 Bankfull stage is 45.3 feet.

The river will crest at 49.7 feet just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage late tomorrow evening.

Flood stage is 49.3 feet.

This afternoon, the turnaround under US59 was just beginning to flood. The parking lots and part of the roadway were already underwater.

Far side of sandbar in middle is normally the river bank.

At 5 PM, the soccer fields, picnic area and boat launch at River Grove Park were also partially underwater. And water was rising quickly.

Picnic area and boat docks at River Grove underwater and going deeper tonight.
Soccer fields, also at around 5PM
River still rising. Minor flooding expected through Tuesday.
Sand Mine Area Upstream

Farther upstream, the West Fork was still ripping a hole through an abandoned Hallett sand pit that the company sold to a real estate developer in January.

River is now flowing through the abandoned pit (right) instead of following the normal arc of the river (left) around the pit. Note trail of foam. It moved at around 5 mph.

This breach appears to have widened significantly in recent days. If it remains open and this pit becomes the new course of the river, it’s possible that the entire pit could become public property, just like the river is now.

On the other side of the river, Hallett filled in the trench that was releasing sludge from its settling pond last Friday afternoon.

Trench on perimeter of Hallett Mine that was releasing sludge into river on Friday afternoon has been filled in.

Lake Report

As of 7 PM, the SJRA is releasing 5,325 Cubic Feet per Second (CFS) from Lake Conroe. The lake is almost back to its normal level – within .67 feet of 201. And no rain is in sight. That’s good news. Releases should continue to go down.

Screen capture from SJRA website at 7:15PM.

Throughout this event, SJRA has balanced inflows and outflows to the degree that it can. The rate they show above is about half of what they released earlier in the weekend.

Lake Houston, however, is getting more, not less water. It is still about two feet above normal and discharging water via its gates and spillway. Total discharge is 34,015 CFS. Of that, the gates can release only 10,000 CFS. The other 24,000 CFS goes over the spillway.

Screen capture from Coastal Water Authority as of 7:15 PM.

Comparing the two numbers on the right, shows us that the flood risk is shifting to the Lake Houston Area now.

Of the 11 watersheds that send water into Lake Houston, SJRA controls only Lake Conroe. The East Fork has no flood control. But that’s a story for another time.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/19/24 at 8PM

2455 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Flooded 3 Times in 7 Years in 500-Year Floodplain, But No Buyout

Daniel and Kathleen Moore live with their 8-month old baby near the East Fork San Jacinto in Montgomery County. The young couple desperately wants a buyout after their house on Idle Glen in New Caney flooded three times in seven years. But no buyout is in sight.

When they bought the home, they were told it was in the 500-year floodplain. In fact, Montgomery County flood maps still show their home is in the 500-year (.2% annual chance) floodplain.

However, that determination is based on floodplain data from the 1980’s – before the Moores were even born. And since then, the area upstream from them has boomed with new development.

New Upstream Development Invalidates Old Data

For instance, Colony Ridge, just 2.5 miles to the northeast on the other side of the river, has grown 50% larger than Manhattan since 2010 – with virtually no flood mitigation measures on the East Fork side of the area.

In one seven year stretch (2017 to 2024), the Moores flooded three times. During Harvey, they flooded to nine feet. In Imelda, they got one foot. And in the no-name storm of May 2024, five feet of floodwater destroyed everything in the bottom floor of their home.

Said Daniel, “I figured Harvey was extreme. I didn’t worry too much about that. But the next two storms were different. We just can’t afford to rebuild every two or three years.” Daniel works as a mechanic. “The pay isn’t that great,” he says. “We need to move.”

Rebuilding Without Flood Insurance

After the first two floods, they rebuilt the home with money from their own pockets – without benefit of insurance. But with a new baby, they can no longer afford that.

The Moores’ story underscores how inexperience can hamstring young couples on technical issues, such as floodplain delineation and flood insurance.

The moral of this story: before you invest in a new home, consult with a professional hydrologist about the risk. Talk to neighbors about past flooding. Look for tell-tale signs like mold on neighbors’ homes, rotting wood, and elevated structures.

And buy flood insurance. It’s available through FEMA and the National Flood Insurance Program. Not all agents feel the commission justifies the trouble of handling it, especially if the home has a history of flooding, so you may get mixed signals from them. Shop around.

Moore Photos During and After May 2024 Flood

Daniel tried to return home after spending the first night with his family in a motel. He couldn’t get onto the feeder road from SH99. This picture shows FM1485 totally flooded.

FM1485 on second day of flood.
Raging waters reached the top of the street sign and nearly touched the power wires.
Floodwater jumbled the living room furniture.
Another room totaled.

Cleanup after the Flood

I took the following shots on 5/18/24. As Daniel worked to gut his uninhabitable home once again, his wife tended the baby at her mother’s home.

Living room of Daniel and Kathleen Moore destroyed by flooding in May 2024
Daniel points to height of flood waters. For reference, he is 6’5″ tall.
Possessions carted to curb and picked over by scavengers.

Scavengers feel, “What difference does it make? They’re throwing this out anyway.” But it makes flood victims feel victimized all over again. Daniel says he’s found people picking through his belongings every day since the flood.

Floodwater reached the top of Kathleen’s Tahoe. It floated during the flood and turned 90 degrees. No one knows where the phone pole came from.
Daniel, tired, bewildered, and still a bit dazed.

But the Moores’ trials and tribulations are not over.

Buyout Chances

The Moores have had a hard time connecting with anyone in Montgomery County who will offer them a buyout.

Ironically, the fact that they are in a 500-year floodplain that hasn’t been updated in 40 years could hurt their buyout chances. FEMA scoring generally favors those with higher risk.

FEMA also favors homeowners with flood insurance. That’s because buying out the homeowners would likely save FEMA money on insurance reimbursements after multiple floods.

But that’s not all.

River Rising Again

Before leaving the Moores’ home, I put my drone up and saw this.

East Fork rising again. Out of banks and flooding FM1485 (right) near 1 PM on May 18, 2024. Looking E. Note river on middle right already had risen over one road in the neighborhood. Daniel says FM1485 is totally under water now.

As of 6 PM, the National Weather service shows the river is still rising. They predict it will crest tonight just under major flood stage near 69 feet.

NWS prediction as of 5:52 PM on 5/28/24 for gage within blocks of Moore home.

That should bring the water close to the Moores’ front door again.

As I drove around his neighborhood, I marveled at the number of abandoned and flooded homes. One can only wonder whether this neighborhood will survive.

Please pray for the safety of all who live there.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/18/24

2454 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 2 Weeks since the No-Name Flood of 2024

West Fork Sand Mine Sending Sediment Downstream from Settling Pond

5/17/2024 – The Hallett sand mine on the San Jacinto West Fork appears to have dug a trench across the maintenance road of its settling pond to lower the pond’s level. Murky wastewater is draining into the West Fork while the SJRA is currently releasing 10,875 cubic feet per second (CFS) from Lake Conroe in the wake of yesterday’s heavy rains.

Sediment released from the mine is being picked up by the Lake Conroe water and carried downstream. Note below how sediment has discolored the West Fork.

Picture taken 5/17/24, at the confluence of the West Fork, Spring Creek and Cypress Creek. Cypress joins Spring slightly upstream on the left. The branch on the right is immediately downstream from 20 square miles of sand mines between US59 and I-45.

Where The Sludge is Coming From

In the last few weeks I’ve posted extensively about how the West Fork has breached the dikes of a pit formerly owned by Hallett. As of this afternoon, the river continues to run through that pit. No attempt has been made by the new owner to re-establish the dikes. And that certainly contributes to downstream sedimentation.

But this afternoon, I discovered an additional source of sedimentation thanks to a tip from a nearby fishermen who stumbled across a breach in Hallett’s settling pond. See video below.

Video supplied by fishermen.

It’s hard to get a sense of the location from the close up, so here’s the location of the breach in a satellite image from Google Earth.

General location of breach and path to river in red oval.

And here’s a more detailed look at the path the water took on its way to the river.

Looking N. Silty water leaves Hallett’s settling pond through a trench dug in the tree-line. From there it flows through an abandoned sand mine and then through another breach into the West Fork.
Reverse angle shows silty water flowing out of Hallett settling pond into abandoned neighboring mine.
Detail cropped from shot above shows how heavy equipment worked the area.
Looking S downstream. Abandoned mine on left, West Fork in middle and breach through another pit on right.

Timing of Release Should Raise Eyebrows

The timing of this release is suspect: Friday afternoon just before regulators headed home for the weekend.

I’ve documented a history of breaches from this pond dating back to 2019 and the fishermen say they’ve seen breaches before that.

Hallett flushed water from this and other ponds after the January floods in 2024 but via different routes.

Lest you think I’m picking on Hallett, it isn’t the only sand mine emptying its settling pond into the West Fork.

I also documented an instance when the West Fork ran white from a release at the LMI Moorhead Mine upstream from Hallett. TCEQ estimated they released 56 million gallons of sludge into the river. That pond dropped 3-4 feet according to the TCEQ.

Regular Occurrence

The montage below shows the confluence of the West Fork and Spring/Cypress Creeks from different angles on different days. In all cases, the polluted branch was the West Fork. I took these shots while photographing West Fork sand mines from a rented helicopter.

Confluence

A former West Fork mine operator and a former water quality manager for the City of Houston tell me that releasing sediment-laden water under the cover of floods is standard operating procedure for many mines on the West Fork.

Who Will Bear the Cost of Clean Up, Dredging?

Think this doesn’t affect you? It affects your water quality and the cost of cleaning it up. Lake Houston supplies drinking water for more than two million people.

And if you live between the mines and Lake Houston, it probably will affect you another way.

Most sediment moves during floods. During Harvey, the West Fork swept through 20 square miles of sand mines between I-45 and I-69. According to the Army Corps, deposited sediment blocked the West Fork by 90%. That reduced the conveyance of the river and caused water to rise into homes and businesses. Almost 20,000 flooded in the Humble/Kingwood area.

Since then, taxpayers have spent more than $200 million on dredging. And the City is getting ready to launch another $34 million dredging program.

However, that program won’t address the mouth of the Kingwood Diversion Ditch at the River Grove Park boat launch.

KSA has obtained bids north of $800,000 to dredge the blocked area. Spending that kind of money will be necessary to keep the KSA boat launch open. It has become badly blocked by sediment during two floods since the start of the year.

Kingwood Diversion Ditch at River Grove Blocked by sediment
Here’s what that area looked like yesterday afternoon when the SJRA release rate was closer to 1500 CFS. Water level in river was still up about a foot above normal.

Living with sediment is all part of life on the river. But dredging intervals at River Grove have gone from 8 years before Harvey to 4 to 2 years since Harvey.

If this continues, KSA may be forced debate whether it can afford to keep the boat docks open.

Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey, PE is trying to work with upstream authorities to reduce sedimentation that can lead to flooding. But it’s an uphill slog. No pun intended.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/17/2024

2053 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Tornado Watch, Flood Warning, Flood Watch In Effect

4:30 PM May 16, 2024 – The National Weather Service has issued a trio of alerts that affect the Lake Houston Area. A tornado watch, flood warning, and flood watch are all simultaneously in effect.

Scene Capture from RadarScope Pro at 4:12PM 5/16/24

Tornado Watch

The three include a tornado watch until 10 PM tonight. The watch includes all counties in the Houston Region and then some. 

AUSTIN               BRAZORIA            BRAZOS
BURLESON             CHAMBERS            COLORADO
FORT BEND            GALVESTON           GRIMES
HARDIN               HARRIS              HOUSTON
JASPER               JEFFERSON           LIBERTY
MADISON              MONTGOMERY          NEWTON
ORANGE               POLK                SAN JACINTO
TRINITY              TYLER               WALKER
WALLER               WASHINGTON          WHARTON

Update: At 5:50 PM, issued a tornado warning for NW Harris, Austin and Waller Counties. They spotted rotation on radar. The warning will expire at 6PM, but it speaks to the severity of these storms.

Flood Warning

The Weather Service has also issued a flood warning for the San Jacinto East Fork. Predicted crests are increasing from minor to moderate levels near FM1485. This could affect people in Harris, Montgomery and Liberty Counties. Some are still cleaning up from the flood two weeks ago.

Flood Watch in Wider Area

Finally, a flood watch has been issued due to excessive rainfall across the region. This one could trigger flooding on other creeks, streams and bayous. The watch area includes:

Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-
Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Austin-Waller-
Inland Harris-Southern Liberty-Coastal Harris Counties

This watch is primarily due to excessive rainfall associated with the approaching storm. It could drop 2-4″ across a wide area, with isolated totals up to 6-8″.

Lake Houston is in the area of highest risk – Level 4 – for excessive rainfall.

National Weather Service (See below.)

Flash Flooding Possible

High intensity rains could produce flash flooding that makes driving dangerous.

The ground is already super saturated from previous rains. “There is just nowhere for the water to go,” said Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner.

According to Lindner, “Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4″ will be likely north of HWY 105. Isolated totals could reach upwards to 6-8 inches. Amounts will decrease toward the south with totals near the coast less than 1 inch. This will virtually be a carbon copy of the last several rainfall events in terms of location and amounts.”

Lake Report

Lake Conroe was releasing 1590 cubic feet per second until the noon hour today. Then, the SJRA stopped releasing water give the Coastal Water Authority a chance to reduce the level of Lake Houston. Lake Houston continues to release water.

Lake Conroe operators hoped they had enough capacity in the Lake to absorb the expected influx of water. But at 4:30PM, the resumed releasing 1587 CFS.

They also announced that they will “pass through storm water and runoff received in the Upper San Jacinto River Basin until Lake Conroe returns to conservation pool.” (201 feet)

Both lakes just returned close to their normal levels from the floods in early May. However, Lake Houston is still a few inches above normal.

Total inflows into Lake Houston are at 6,627 cfs and outflows are at 8,960 cfs. Lake Houston gates have and will remain open until the gate that is stuck partially open is repaired.

Impact on Sedimentation

Most sediment moves during floods. And the West Fork sure has been piling up sediment lately. KSA just completed a sonar survey in River Grove Park where the Kingwood Diversion Ditch enters the West Fork.

Before the last storm, sand had built up at the mouth so that only about two feet of clearance was available for boats. After the last storm, sand is poking up even closer to the surface…and the river is still about a half foot above normal.

Even with water up about a half foot, you can see sand bars lurking just below surface at the River Grove boat launch.

The City of Houston is getting ready to launch a new $34 million dredging program between Kings Point and FM1960.

DRC/Callan Marine mobilizing for new dredging program south of Forest Cove Pool.

Unfortunately, the new City program won’t include the mouth of the Diversion Ditch. KSA will have to hire its own dredger to keep the boat docks open.

KSA’s dredging interval has gone from 8 to 4 to 2 years. It sure seems as though it would be less expensive if we didn’t have West Fork floods flowing through sand pits.

Sand mine on San Jacinto West Fork near Kingwood

For Real-Time Information

To monitor:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/16/24 at 4:30 PM

2452 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

HCFCD Report Puts May 2024 Flood in Historical Perspective

A report issued by Harris County’s Meteorologist Jeff Lindner puts the May 2024 flood into historical perspective.

Significant flooding occurred along the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River as well as the lower San Jacinto River below Lake Houston.

While rainfall occurred over a 7-day period, the most intense rainfall in Harris County fell on Thursday, May 2nd. Lindner’s report starts by covering the rainfall totals and intensity during different lengths of time. Then, he discusses the resulting flood heights and impacts.

Rainfall distribution in May 2024 flood
Locations of 7-day rainfall totals between April 28 and May 5. Upstream areas received twice as much as Lake Houston.
Total Rainfall in 7-Day Period

Total rainfall amounts for the seven-day period averaged 10.0-17.0 inches across the extreme northern and northeastern portions of Harris County. Southern and central Montgomery County were also affected as well as northern Liberty County.

A maximum 7-day rainfall of 16.8 inches was recorded on the East Fork of the San Jacinto River at FM 1485.

The table below indicates maximum rainfall for Harris County gages.

Maximum rainfalls for different periods from 5 minutes to 7 days.

Using Atlas-14 Rainfall Exceedance Probability Tables, Lindner says rainfall during the 7-day time period ranged from:

  • 5- to 10-year events on the San Jacinto West and East Forks as well as below Lake Houston
  • 2- to 5-year events on Cedar Bayou.
  • 2- to 10-year events along Luce Bayou.

Maximum 2-Day and 3-Hour Rainfall Totals

The max rainfall for those same watersheds during the peak 48-hours ranged from 2- to 10-year events.

During the peak 3-hour time period, however, gages on Willow Creek, Spring Creek, Luce Bayou, Cedar Bayou, and the San Jacinto recorded 25- to 50-year rains. The short, high-intensity rains resulted in deep street and flash flooding.

North of Harris County, the rainfall got much more intense.

Locations of Heaviest Rainfall

The majority of the heavy to excessive rainfall occurred across areas north and northeast of Harris County. This was across the headwaters of the West and East Forks of the San Jacinto River, Luce Bayou, and Lake Creek.

Rainfall amounts over the 7-day period averaged 15.0-18.0 inches over southern Walker and northern Montgomery County which drain into Lake Conroe. They averaged 15.0-20.0 inches across eastern Walker County, northern Montgomery County, and San Jacinto County which drain into the East Fork of the San Jacinto River.

“No two storm events are exactly the same with respect to the location, duration, and maximum totals of rainfall.”

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Comparisons with Other Storms

The May 2024 rainfall had some similarities to the October 1994 flood. Nearly 30 inches fell across Lake Creek and the northwest portions of the Spring Creek watersheds in 1994. In 2024, the highest totals occurred farther to the north – from north of Lake Conroe to northwest of Lake Livingston.

In those locations, the rainfall exceeded 1994. That resulted in near record inflows for both Lake Conroe and Lake Livingston.

Comparison of maximum rainfall totals in different time periods for different storms. Note especially the totals for 1-hour and less.

Flooding in Historical Perspective

Rainfall is only a starting point when investigating flooding. You must also look at rainfall distribution, intensity, longevity, previous heavy rainfall, ground saturation, already swollen watersheds, and convergence of peak flows.

Much of the upper portions of the San Jacinto basin stretch across parts of Montgomery, Walker, and San Jacinto Counties. In April, they experienced rainfall 150% to 500% above normal.

Rainfall on April 28th-29th primed already wet soils for maximum run-off. Then, those same areas received additional excessive rainfall on May 1st-2nd. The second episode generated widespread and significant flash flooding and run-off into the rivers and creeks that drain to Lake Houston.

Second Highest Peak on East Fork

The East Fork exceeded the expected elevation of a 500-year storm. At FM1485, only Harvey exceeded the May peak.

San Jacinto East Fork peaks at FM1485.

Five-hundred year flooding on a 20-year rain resulted when peaks from different rounds of rainfall piled on top of each other from different watersheds.

Fifth Highest Peak on West Fork

West Fork flooding was less extreme. This was the fifth highest flooding on the West Fork since 1994. The May flood qualified as a 10- to 50-year storm based on gage readings at US59.

Five highest peaks on San Jacinto West Fork since 1994.

Fourth Highest Peak at Lake Houston Dam

The height of water going over the spillway at the Lake Houston Dam was the 4th highest peak since 1979.

Downstream at Highway 90, residents saw the 9th highest peak since 1979. Downstream areas saw between a 10-year and 50-year flood.

Third Highest Volume of Stormwater Flowing Into Lake Houston

The table below summarizes volumes of water in cubic feet per second flowing into Lake Houston from the various watersheds during different storms. This May’s event was the 3rd highest total since 1994. Only Harvey and October 1994 surpassed it.

Water flowing into Lake Houston in different storms since 1994. This May was 3rd largest volume.

House Flooding Estimates

Flood depths ranged from 6 inches to several feet in some of the lowest lying homes. The damage numbers below apply only to Harris County. The numbers were supplied by City of Houston and Harris County Engineering.

  • 20 homes flooded with an additional 16 having water in sheds, garages, or other non-living areas on the West Fork.
  • 32 homes flooded with an additional 8 having water water in non-living areas on the East Fork.

Upstream, the flood damage in Montgomery and Liberty Counties was much greater. However, I do not have final totals for those areas yet.

Maps, Tables Galore

Lindner’s report also includes 15 pages of rainfall intensity maps and tables for different watersheds and gages. It’s a treasure trove of information including high water marks. Click here for the full report. For future reference, that’s under the link to the Major Storms tab on the Reports Page. You can compare full reports on other storms there.

Many thanks to Jeff Lindner and his team. They keep hundreds of gages around Harris Country watersheds working to provide timely, life-saving information via the Harris County Flood Warning System.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/15/24

2451 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Most Projects To Address Lake Houston Flooding Still Not Started

After the floods of early May 2024 and as we got yet another flood warning (East Fork at FM1485), people are asking once again, “What can we do to reduce our flood risk?” Ironically, with a few exceptions, the answers are the same as those identified after Harvey. We just need to implement them. 

Few of the action items identified years ago have been implemented. Meanwhile, many underlying conditions that contribute to flood risk, i.e., insufficiently mitigated upstream development and sand mining, are accelerating. Sometimes it feels that as fast as we fix things up, others muck them up.

Could have Been Much, Much Worse

The Lake Houston Area narrowly escaped a disaster during the early May floods. A small number of homes flooded. However, a far larger number were almost seriously damaged. Had storms dumped a little more water in the wrong places, that flood could have easily destroyed thousands of homes. Water was lapping at their foundations.

Ironically, the amount of water that caused the flooding this May was about a third of what we received during Harvey. 

That should underscore how vulnerable people in the Lake Houston Area remain to flooding. So, let’s look back at what happened to recommendations that came out of Hurricane Harvey studies.

Recommendations from 2020 San Jacinto River Watershed Master Drainage Plan

After Harvey, Harris County Flood Control, Montgomery County, the San Jacinto River Authority and the City of Houston joined forces to identify ways to reduce flood risk in the San Jacinto River Basin.

In December 2020, they published a 3,600 page study called the San Jacinto Regional Watershed Master Drainage Plan.

Pages 36-38 of the executive summary contain recommendations. Page 38 identifies and quantifies the value of 16 recommended flood-mitigation projects.

Short-Term Strategies (Page 36)
  • Vision Group – to promote collaboration and momentum
  • Policy – standardizing minimum requirements for future development
  • Floodplain Preservation – to prevent increases in future flood risk
  • Flood Monitoring and Warning Enhancements – adding gages along major streams
  • Flood Response – enhancing communication, identifying and prioritizing flood prone areas, and developing public education strategies
  • Buyouts – to remove homes and businesses that flood frequently from the floodplain
  • Floodplain Re-Mapping – to inform people of changes to their risk. Water surface elevations in a 100-year flood have increased between .5 and 4.5 feet with the adoption of Atlas 14. 
  • Watershed Protection Studies – for each sub watershed to identify where we need local drainage improvements.
Long-Term Strategies (Page 37)
  • Adoption of “No adverse impact” Policy – to ensure upstream mitigation efforts don’t increase downstream flooding
  • Right of Way Acquisition – purchasing land for future flood mitigation projects
  • Utilities and Roadways – protecting evacuation routes and critical infrastructure during planning
  • Project Phasing to Overcome Funding Constraints – due to the high cost of mitigation projects.
16 Specific Channel and Stormwater-Detention Projects (Page 38)

See project rankings in table below along with projected costs.

Top 16 Projects Identified in SJR Master Watershed Plan

Subsequent portions of the report describe each recommendation in each category in more detail. You can find all sections on the HCFCD website. They total hundreds of megabytes.

Not Much Has Happened in Last Four Years

Sadly, while elected officials have been busy chasing funding, not much has been accomplished on the ground in any of these three categories that would actually reduce flood risk. Said another way, we’ve seen little construction. We’ve seen most progress in the first category.

Short-Term Solutions:

Vision Group: The San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group was recommended to pull together recommendations for the State’s first flood plan. A draft was released last week. 

Policy: Montgomery County is revising its drainage criteria manual. But county commissioners have not yet adopted it. Neither MoCo, nor Liberty County have adopted the minimum drainage standards for areas draining into Harris County.

Floodplain Preservation is spotty. Non-profits, such as the Bayou Land Conservancy have stepped up. And some governmental agencies have discouraged floodplain development. But loopholes exist in regulations and enforcement is lacking in many places even if regulations exist.

Flood Monitoring and Warning Enhancements – SJRA installed several gages upstream from Lake Conroe, but more are still needed. In the last flood, they still couldn’t tell exactly how much water was coming in so that they could match releases to stabilize the lake level.

Flood Response: Harris County Flood Control stepped up its warnings and provided updated river forecasts two to three times a day. The SJRA did too. The Mayor had multiple press conferences in the Kingwood area before and during the flood. He worked with first responders to make sure people were kept out of harms way. That was a far cry from Harvey where a quarter of all the deaths in the county happened in Kingwood. And elderly people found themselves trapped by rising floodwaters in the middle of the night.

Buyouts – HCFCD bought out the townhomes along Marina Drive in Forest Cove that flooded repeatedly. And Montgomery County has also bought up many properties that flooded repetitively. But many more remain. 

Floodplain Re-Mapping – FEMA has yet to approve Harris County’s updated flood maps. They’re still approximately three years from completion.

Watershed Protection Studies – Some have been done. Other’s haven’t even started. It’s been spotty. Little has been done with the studies already completed. And no grants will be approved without studiers.

Long-Term Solutions:

“No adverse impact” is violated more than the Ten Commandments.

Right of Way Acquisition – has moved forward on several properties in the Cypress Creek watershed and Harris County bought the 270-acre Woodridge Village Property in Montgomery County from Perry Homes.

Roadways – Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ 10 is expanding Northpark Drive and building an all-weather evacuation route out of Kingwood. It includes a bridge over the UP Railroad Tracks. FM2100 and FM1960 are expanding in Harris County. But the Huffman-Cleveland Road is still cut off in Liberty County. The Grand Parkway has been completed. But FM1485 right next to it has been cut off by floodwaters twice already this year.

Project Phasing – is a standard practice in the industry. But projects associated with the flood bond are moving so slowly that inflation has cost us about 20% of the bond’s purchasing power. Where will the money come from to complete all the projects?

Specific Projects

Not one of these projects listed in the table above has started construction. None is even close. No land has been acquired for any. And yet, unlike studies, these things actually protect property when floodwaters rise.

Engineers looked into Project #2 (Walnut Creek Detention), but by the time they investigated, someone had already purchased the land and announced plans to build a solar farm on it. 

Where to Go From Here

Net: We’ve picked some of the low-hanging fruit. But we have a long way to go. Especially with construction projects that actually protect property.

As I interviewed people for this post, it became clear that different entities with different interests has hampered many mitigation efforts. We walk between competing, balkanized fiefdoms. 

No one anywhere speaks for all the people of this watershed.

Just as bad, the business processes surrounding flood mitigation sometimes become bewilderingly complex. Many smaller counties, cities and MUDs don’t have the expertise to even apply for grants.

Even worse, some groups undermine improvements. For instance, we’ve dredged the mouth of the Kingwood Diversion Ditch at River Grove Park twice since Hurricane Harvey. And now it needs it again – as the West Fork flows through a sand pit. Even before floodwaters have receded, you can already see sediment poking up through the water. For decades the dredging interval was about once every eight years.

The people of a river basin are inextricably bound together by water. Yet our personal interests (What’s in it for me?) and political boundaries still divide us. 

We need to recognize that fact and develop better ways to design solutions. More on that in a future post. I’ll also discuss some things that the San Jacinto River Basin Plan did not address.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/14/24

2450 Days since Hurricane Harvey