The heavy rainfall threat for the northeast Houston area from PTC1 (Potential Tropical Cyclone #1) has shifted southwest somewhat today. While the storm takes its time getting organized, high pressure from the eastern US is building into the Houston area. That’s squeezing the heaviest rains toward the coast and the Rio Grande Valley.
Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center warns of a second storm forming next week exactly where PTC1 is forming now. But it will likely head north, not west.
Heaviest Rainfall from PCT1 Shifting Southwest
Over the weekend, early predictions suggested heavy rains would arrive in the Lake Houston Area on Monday. Monday’s predictions suggested Tuesday. And now Tuesday’s predictions say the Lake Houston Area might get 1-3 inches of rain during the next three days.
The National Weather Service (NWS) now predicts PTC1 will produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas. Maximum totals could approach 15 inches.
This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
NWS also predicts the broad circulation of PTC1 could produce extreme rainfall in Central America. Totals could average 10 to 20 inches with maximum amounts of 25 inches. Areas most affected include the Pacific coast of far southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, much of El Salvador, western Honduras, and far western Nicaragua.
Here’s what the storm looked like earlier today from space.
Landfall in Mexico
As of 4PM CDT Tuesday, NWS predicted PTC1 would make landfall in Mexico sometime within the next 24 to 36 hours as a tropical storm. They currently give it an 80% chance of formation.
At present, the storm exhibits wind speeds approaching tropical storm strength (39+ MPH). Tropical storm conditions could begin tonight or Wednesday along portions of the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward 415 miles north of the center.
So focus less on the track and more on the impact.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns, “Regardless of the exact track of the low, this system will have a large area of heavy rains. Expect moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center.”
Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast through midweek.
If PTC1 becomes a tropical storm, its name will be Alberto.
Double Trouble?
NHC’s website showed something unusual today. One possible tropical system could develop within the area vacated by another. Within days of each other!
NHC gives a 20% chance of the second storm developing in the yellow area with the red X.
But instead of moving into Mexico, they predict the second storm could move northward. That could make it a direct threat to Houston.
So check NHC’s weather forecasts daily during hurricane season. As PTC1 proves, weather can change quickly.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/18/24
2485 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/180154WPCQPF_sm.gif?fit=892%2C716&ssl=1716892adminadmin2024-06-18 17:27:272024-06-18 17:32:42Heaviest Rainfall Threat from PTC1 Shifting Southwest
6/17/24 – At 4PM CDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The disturbance in the Gulf has a 70 percent chance of tropical formation during the next two days.
NHC also issued a tropical storm watch for Port O’Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande and onward to Boca de Catan in Mexico.
If a tropical storm forms, they will call it Alberto.
A satellite photo taken this morning of Potential Tropical Cyclone One shows storm clouds already starting to wind around a broad area of low pressure centered over the Yucatan. It has been spinning rain north into Texas and Louisiana. But the main event starts tomorrow.
Some slow strengthening is possible, The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday. Formation chance through:
48 hours…high…70 percent.
7 days…high…70 percent.
Potential Tropical Cyclone One is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
Life-Threatening Flooding Likely in Mexico and Central America
“Regardless of development, several more days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.”
The graphic below shows accumulations expected over the next five days.
Total expected rainfall from Tuesday through Sunday. Source: National Weather Service.
According to NHC, “Potential Tropical Cyclone One will produce “rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.”
Lake Houston Area Will See Far Less Rainfall
Locally, Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner predicts:
Coastal Counties: 7-9 inches (widespread), isolated totals over 12+ inches
I-10 corridor: 3-5 inches (widespread), isolated totals up to 7 inches
North of I-10: 3-4 inches (widespread), isolated totals up to 5 inches.
Lindner adds, “The most favorable time for heavy rainfall over southeast Texas will be from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday afternoon.”
Use the rainfall amounts above as average. Training bands can quickly result in much higher totals and flash flooding in small areas near other areas that see little rainfall.”
Watersheds Most at Risk
Where the heaviest rains fall will determine responses on area watersheds. Lindner feels most Harris County creeks and bayous can handle 4-6 inches of rainfall. However, he warns that if isolated higher totals exceed 8 inches in southern Harris County, we might see trouble on:
Clear Creek and its tributaries
Armand Bayou
Willow Spring Bayou
Big Island Slough
Taylor’s Bayou
Goose Creek
Berry Bayou
Hunting Bayou
Keegans Bayou
Willow Waterhole
Lake Report
At 5PM, the SJRA has lowered Lake Conroe by one-third of a foot.
The Coastal Water Authority has lowered Lake Houston by a full foot.
I asked Lindner how much rain he expected between the lakes. The short answer: 2-3 inches with isolated totals up to 4 inches. With that amount of lake lowering, he does not expect structural flooding. But there are other dangers.
The mouth of the Kingwood Diversion Ditch at River Grove Park shows how high sediment deposits have become. At Lake Houston’s normal level, that sand lurks just inches below the surface. Boaters have churned a temporary shallow channel through the sandbar with their props.
Mouth of Kingwood Diversion Ditch at River Grove Park on afternoon of 6/17/24 with lake down one foot.
But with all the sand coming down the West Fork from sand-mine breaches, that sediment you see above will likely increase during this storm.
Confluence of Spring Creek and West Fork (right) near US59 Bridge on 6/16/24
But the greatest immediate threat exists near the coast.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX…2-4 ft
Galveston Bay…2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX…1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA…1-3 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/17/24 at 5PM based on information from NHC and NWS
2484 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Gulf-20240617.jpg?fit=1100%2C631&ssl=16311100adminadmin2024-06-17 17:42:542024-06-22 10:42:40NHC Issues Advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone One
6/16/24 – 8 PM update – As of 8 PM, the National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of tropical formation to 70% from 50% for the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche.
Excessive rainfall and flash flooding chances are increasing for the middle part of the week. Coastal counties could see 8-11 inches in widespread areas with isolated totals topping 12 inches.
According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner:
The I-10 corridor could experience 5-8 inches (widespread) with isolated totals up to 10 inches
North of I-10, people will see 3-5 inches (widespread) with isolated totals up to 8 inches.
Much of the rainfall will come over a 36-48 hour period (Tuesday and Wednesday).
National Weather Service gives most of Harris County a 3 out of 4 chance for excessive rainfall.
All of this rain is in association with a tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche.
The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of tropical formation for that red area in the Gulf to 70%.
Whether the storm gets a name or not, it will impact the Houston area in several ways.
Forecasts have been trending upward with rainfall amounts over the last 24 hours. Given the incoming tropical moisture combined with the potential for cell training and high hourly rainfall rates, flash flooding is becoming an increasing concern.
Sustained heavy rains will be possible from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday over the area.
High hourly rainfall rates will result in rapid onset flash flooding.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
Uncertainty remains as to where any sustained banding features will form and how far inland the heavy rainfall threat may extend. Stay tuned for changes to the forecast.
Significant rises on area creeks, bayous, and rivers will be likely given the rainfall forecast. Where maximum totals occur, overbank flooding will be possible on creeks and bayous. Rivers which are still elevated from the spring rainfall will also likely see additional rises. However, flooding will depend on the position, magnitude, and coverage of the heavier rains and the inland extent.
Lake Conroe Being Lowered
In preparation, the San Jacinto River Authority continues to lower Lake Conroe. On Sunday morning, it was at 200.82 feet, several inches below its normal level of 201 feet. At 10 AM, SJRA was discharging 660 cubic feet per second.
Lake Houston Discharge Rate Jumps 7X
Downriver, the Coastal Water Authority increased the discharge rate from Lake Houston. The rate jumped from 1386 CFS to 9,905 CFS between 5 AM and 7 AM this morning.
Note steep jump in discharge rate at the far right.
Gusty Winds, Coastal Flooding, Dangerous Seas
As the much-advertised tropical weather event unfolds over the western Gulf of Mexico in the next 24 hours, Lindner anticipates increasing impacts, especially along the Texas Coast.
The plume of tropical moisture will arrive late tonight into Monday. Scattered showers will begin to work toward the coast tonight. Even greater moisture will flow inland Tuesday and Wednesday.
Banding thunderstorms and cell training will create potential for flash flooding. Models have trended upwards in the last 24 hours. The National Weather Service has given all areas south of I-10 a level 3 out of 4 flash flood risk from Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning.
Wind Forecast
According to Lindner, winds will begin to increase on Monday, but really ramp up Tuesday into Wednesday. Coastal areas will likely experience frequent gusts to gale force.
Coastal waters: 35-45mph
Coastal counties: 25-40mph
Inland: 25-30mph
Coastal Flooding Likely Mid-Week During High Tides
Lindner expects building seas and elevated tides to exceed coastal flood thresholds along the upper Texas coast, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Total water levels are forecasted to reach 4.5-5.5 feet above barnacle level along the Gulf facing beaches late Tuesday into Wednesday and 4.0-5.0 feet in Galveston Bay.
Minor coastal flooding is likely late Tuesday into Wednesday in the usual low lying coastal areas (Bolivar, west end of Galveston Island, Blue Water Highway, Tiki Island, San Leon, Seabrook, Shoreacres).
Water and debris may cover portions of HWY 87 near HWY 124 on Bolivar at high tide. Low lying coastal roads will likely be impacted and covered with sea water at times of high tide.
10-12 Foot Seas
Lindner also warns that extreme dangerous/hazardous marine conditions will develop across all waters Tuesday into Wednesday. Seas will build 5-9 feet on Tuesday offshore and 4-6 feet in bays. Then they will build 10-12 feet on Wednesday offshore and 5-7 feet in bays.
Sustained winds of 30-40mph with frequent gusts of 45mph will be common across our local waters. Expect frequent squalls and periods of heavy rainfall and reduced visibility. Small craft should be secured in port by late Monday and remain in port until conditions improve.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/16/24 based on information from Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, and NWS
2483 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/GQMc-Mea0AAQPCN.jpeg?fit=1243%2C705&ssl=17051243adminadmin2024-06-16 10:09:522024-06-16 20:05:17Flash Flooding Chances Increase for Tuesday, Wednesday
6/15/2024 – Fireworks erupted in the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ-10 Board Meeting on 6/13/24 over more Entergy delays related to the Northpark Expansion plan.
Four years after being notified to move its power poles and a transformer, Entergy still has equipment blocking the expansion. Ralph De Leon, the TIRZ project manager, explained that as a consequence, the TIRZ has been forced to modify its plans yet again.
Power Poles Conflict with Westbound Detour
Original plans called for routing westbound traffic in the vicinity of the bridge over the railroad and Loop 494 onto permanent turn lanes next to businesses. However, because Entergy power poles still stand where those turn lanes would go, LHRA decided to move traffic south, parallel to the existing eastbound lanes. See blacktop in photos and schematic diagram below.
Looking ESE from over Loop 494. Instead of funneling outbound traffic into new permanent lanes in front of the businesses on the left, commuters will use temporary lanes built on the blacktop. Photo 6/13/24.Looking west toward US59 at asphalt that will become temporary westbound lanes. Photo 6/13/24.
The permanent concrete lanes originally were to have gone in the grassy area to the right where the first line of poles is.
Replacing permanent lanes with alternate temporary lanes means that LHRA now will build these lanes twice instead of once. That will increase the project cost. However, no-one in the meeting mentioned an exact dollar amount.
De Leon said that in order to stick with the original traffic diversion plan, the deadline for removing the poles was last year.
Yet Entergy has not yet moved its poles where the new lanes will go. Nor have they provided a timetable for removing the poles. However, Brian Garcia, Entergy’s project manager, expressed confidence that the last poles would be removed “soon.”
It would be safe to say that most other people in the board meeting did not share his optimism. Discussion got heated at times as LHRA tried to pin Entergy down regarding a deadline. Hence, my reference to fireworks above.
Representatives of the City and TIRZ also made it clear that they intended to deduct the cost of the temporary lanes from any money that Entergy might have been entitled to for moving its transformer near the Exxon Station.
Two Groups of Poles
Two separate pole issues exist:
The original poles between Benjamin Moore Paints and Loop 494
Three key poles near the intersection of Northpark and Loop 494
The first group of poles has been “de-energized.” That means transformers and electric wires have already been moved. However, the old poles still have a fiberoptic communication line hanging from them. (Two lines in places). See below.
Looking west toward US59. Old poles on left still have fiberoptic line on them which must be moved to new poles on right.Photo 6/13/24.
The owner(s) of those remaining line(s) on the left must move them before Entergy can take down the old poles. But the fiberoptic provider has had weeks and not moved its line(s).
At the end of the line of poles above on the left sit three key poles shown in the aerial view below.
These three poles provide a redundant source of energy for businesses along Northpark. The businesses are also fed by power from Kings Mill.Photo 6/13/24
In the power business, it’s a standard/best practice to feed areas from at least two different directions. That way, if power is knocked out on one leg, the other leg can still supply homes and businesses.
Entergy has two choices with these three poles. It could move them north and continue to feed redundant power to Northpark businesses with overhead lines. Or, it could tunnel under Loop 494 and the railroad tracks. Entergy prefers to bore under for reliability reasons.
Again, Entergy’s Garcia is confident that the easements TXDot and Union Pacific require will be easy to obtain and come quickly. But the City and TIRZ do not share his confidence. They struggled for years to obtain their own easements and permits.
So, rather than just move the overhead lines north, Entergy is negotiating with TXDoT and Union Pacific to bore under their properties.
Who Will Bear Increased Costs?
After repeatedly being asked to provide a timetable for compliance, Entergy supplied none and instead shifted the conversation to its costs.
The overhead lines have sufficed for years. But Garcia says that Entergy prefers the underground option.
However, if all parties do not complete construction before October, the entire project could be delayed for months and possibly even cancelled. According to De Leon, Turner Brothers’, the prime contractor with the TIRZ, has other projects stacked up and waiting.
Turner Brothers would have to redeploy crews if they can’t keep them working on Northpark. And there’s no guarantee when those crews would be available again to work on Northpark.
But when the boardroom discussion turned to the need for Entergy to act quickly, Entergy turned the discussion to cost.
Garcia says there’s a significant cost for Entergy to move its overhead lines. If the company can bore underground instead, it would prefer to do that rather move its lines twice.
As a consequence, the TIRZ will be forced to shift traffic twice to keep the project moving.
Moreover, both the TIRZ and Entergy face a firm deadline from the railroad, whose busy season starts in October. They must have boring complete well before then with time for the railroad to lay new track and install new signal equipment.
Meanwhile, Entergy still has not moved its transformer near the Exxon Station at US59.
Argument Over Reimbursement
The transformer is outside the City’s easement but the power poles are inside.
Under Texas law, Entergy is entitled to reimbursement for costs outside City easements, but not those inside.
Ralph De Leon, Northpark Expansion Project Manager
Paying to move poles inside City easements would constitute a “gift of public funds,” which is illegal.
The two sides reached a tentative agreement on reimbursement last December. But then in January, Entergy demanded double the agreed total – without explanation or itemization.
In the June TIRZ board meeting, Garcia said he still needed to get the itemized costs approved by his management.
TIRZ directors (who are unpaid volunteers) could become liable for illegal payments to Entergy, hence the demand for itemized costs.
Other Northpark News
The pace of construction has also slowed due to heavy rains in May, which still have soils wet. When they dry out, contractors will resume:
Preparing to pour new concrete
Demolishing old concrete near Loop 494
Excavating the south pond at the US59 entry
Installing culverts
Looking E at progress of culverts. Ponding water in ditch (foreground) has slowed installation.Photo 6/13/24
For More Information
For more information about Northpark expansion, visit the project pages of the LHRA/Tirz 10 website. Or see these posts on ReduceFlooding. Many contain information about previous delays that caused plan changes:
6/14/24, 10:00 AM – The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) is lowering Lake Conroe and the Coastal Water Authority (CWA) is lowering Lake Houston in advance of expected heavy rainfall associated with a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.
At this hour, forecasters predict storms could drop 3-6 inches of rain on the Houston area with the highest totals near the coast. But rain should drop off fairly sharply inland. However, uncertainty remains about how sharp the drop off will be.
Timing of Rain
Most of the rain should fall Monday through Wednesday, but could start as early as Sunday night. However, some models are beginning to forecast the heaviest rains from Tuesday into early Thursday.
Either way, dam operators should have time to lower their respective lakes and create extra storage capacity for stormwater.
Location of Disturbance
At 7:44 AM EDT, the center of the area of concern had not moved since yesterday. Moisture continues to build in the Bay of Campeche. But forecasters have increased the chances of any disturbance turning into a named storm from 40% yesterday to 50% today.
The National Hurricane Center has this to say: “A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.”
Houston Will Not Likely Take Direct Hit, But…
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist says, “The Houston area will not likely take a direct hit from the system. While any tropical depression/storm is likely to remain south of the upper Texas coast, the deep ESE/SE fetch of moisture on the northeastern side of the feature will begin to arrive along the Texas coast as early as late Sunday and more likely into Monday and Tuesday.”
He continued, “It should be noted that the broad nature of this system and potentially ill-defined surface circulation will likely result in impacts spread well away from the actual low itself. Also, until any actual surface low forms, uncertainty will remain with the forecasts and impacts.”
Some models are predicting “outer banding features” in the Houston area. Despite a fair amount of uncertainty, the incoming tropical air mass could drop high amounts of rainfall in a short period of time.
That said, the National Weather Service has released this map showing predicted rainfall amounts for the next seven days.
Lakes Conroe and Houston Both Pre-Releasing
In preparation, Lake Conroe began releasing 660 cubic feet per second (CFS) after a City of Houston request early Friday morning. That is the maximum amount the SJRA can release before a storm under its permit. As the lake starts filling, that amount increases.
Mark Micheletti, an SJRA board member, said that SJRA hopes to lower the lake by six inches before the rains arrive.
Simultaneously, the CWA has opened the gates on the Lake Houston Dam. CWA is currently releasing 1335 CFS.
So, Lake Houston is releasing water twice as fast. And Lake Houston is half the size of Lake Conroe. Therefore, areas downstream should see lower lake levels faster. As it should be. Remember that Lake Houston is 30 miles closer to the coast, where forecasters expect the highest rainfall.
All gates on Lake Houston have been fixed and are fully operational.
Wind and Tide Impacts
For many people, rain isn’t the only concern. According to Lindner, “Winds will also start to increase early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the deepening area of low pressure to the southwest and building high pressure over the SE US. Winds of 20-30mph can be expected across the Gulf/nearshore/and inland bays with 20-25mph across the coastal counties,” according to Lindner.
For boaters and all those who work offshore, nearshore seas will build into the 4-6 ft range by Monday morning and 5-8 ft by Tuesday morning with offshore heights approaching 8-10 ft.
The current tide forecast indicates values of 1-2 ft above normal. But when coupled with the building seas at times of high tide water levels may get close to coastal flooding thresholds. That should happen Tuesday and Wednesday.
Some beach front locations will begin to experience minor coastal flooding around 3-4 ft above normal tide levels.
Given the potential prolonged nature of the ESE winds across the Gulf, we have the potential for tidal trapping. That’s when incoming seas won’t let the previous high tide drain away. This can, over time, build water levels in the bays.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/14/24
2481 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/image001.png?fit=802%2C568&ssl=1568802adminadmin2024-06-14 10:15:352024-06-22 10:55:19Lakes Being Lowered in Advance of Expected Heavy Rains
6/13/24 – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center’s 7-day outlook shows the first tropical threats of the season for the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic.
From National Hurricane Center as of 1:16AM EDT on 6/14/24
That orange area in the Bay of Campeche carries a 40% risk of formation within 7 days.
According to NHC forecasters, “A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.”
The Weather Channel says, “That would bring locally heavy rain to parts of the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to as far west as Texas and eastern Mexico, beginning Sunday and lasting well into the week. Exactly where the heaviest rain could fall remains uncertain this far out in time.”
As the system moves farther north, it will encounter record-warm sea-surface temperatures and wind shear should decrease.
The torrential rains in Florida this week serve as a warning that widespread damage doesn’t require a full-blown hurricane. Parts of Florida received 18-24 inches of life-threatening rain. News media are filled with images of flooded streets and stalled cars. The system could still turn into a tropical storm as it moves up the east coast.
If either of these storms turns into a tropical storm, its name will be Alberto. The next will be Beryl.
As Houston faces new tropical threats, the area is still recovering from non-tropical May storms.
Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, predicts we could see another 2-4 inches of rain from this next threat. He expects the heaviest rains to fall near the coast with decreasing amounts inland. Lindner also warns of strong wind and wave action near the coast.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/13/24
2480 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/two_atl_7d0.png?fit=900%2C665&ssl=1665900adminadmin2024-06-13 07:06:562024-06-13 07:21:39Hurricane Center Posts First Tropical Threats of Season for Gulf
May floods destroyed the popular “Overlook” hiking trail with spectacular river views in Kingwood’s East End Park.
The northern perimeter of East End Park is on the cutbank side of the San Jacinto East Fork where it joins Caney and Peach Creeks.
According to the National Park Service, “As water flows around these curves, the outer edge of water is moving faster than the inner. This creates an erosional surface on the outer edge (a cut bank) and a depostional surface on the inner edge (a point bar).”
You can see these forces at work in East End Park. For students interested in earth sciences, a simple stroll in the park can turn into a memorable learning exercise.
Looking N from over East End Park. Note how river makes a 90 degree turn.River flows toward right.
Note how a giant sand bar has built up on far side of river, inside the curve in the photo above.
However, it’s a different story when you get out over the water and look back at the south shore of the river bordering the park. No expansive, white-sand beaches beckoning boaters, picnickers and sunbathers on the East End Park side!
Tangled roots, downed trees, washed-out trail, destroyed bench (lower right) on East End Park’s Overlook Trail
Note that tree with a clearing behind it in the middle of the photo above and compare the photo below.
The washed-out trail suffered considerable erosion during Hurricane Harvey. At that time, an alternate trail was built farther back from the river. Now it, too, looks like it will require replacement.
“I Know There Used to Be a Trail Here Somewhere!”
Here’s how the same scene looked from the ground. Note the same tree in the middle of the photo below.
Photo courtesy of Dr. Charles Campbell
Poor pooch. How confusing! All the familiar smells and sights are gone.
The Kingwood Service Association will have to spend money making this area safe and usable again. Before the storm, it was one of the prettiest parts of East End Park.
Two of the photos in this poster were taken from the washed out trail: Blue Water (middle left) and pelicans (bottom center).
Mother Nature Can Be Difficult At Times
Unfortunately, East End Park repairs will pile on top of repairs to River Grove Park. The mouth of the Kingwood Diversion Ditch has silted in at River Grove, severely limiting the use of the boat launch there. The water is up about a foot since I took pictures of the new sand bar there a couple weeks ago.
However, a few small boats have churned a narrow channel through the sand with their props. I talked to the owner of a john boat this morning. The shallow draft of his boat meant that he could get through/over the sand bar, whereas larger ski boats could not.
Note sand churned up by the prop of the john boat at River Grove boat launch.That indicates how shallow the water is.
He virtually had the river to himself. And liked it that way. But the river won’t stay that way for long.
Remember to register your opinion about what to do with the River Grove boat launch with your Homeowner Association board before the HOA’s vote on options later this summer or fall.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/11/24
2478 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
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6/9/24 – After posting about four West Fork sand mine breaches just last night, I discovered two more this morning. Both were at the end of White Sands Drive, which branches off of Sorters-McClellan Road a half mile south of Kingwood Drive.
The first was at the Eagle Sorters mine north of White Sands. Operators have opened up a pit to drain it directly into the river.
The second was at the Williams Brothers Mine south of White Sands. There, nature did the dirty work. The January flood caused large slabs of the mine’s dike to break off and fall into the river. The May flood finished the job. The dike separating the mine from the river is now completely gone … like a cool spring breeze.
According to historical satellite images in Google Earth, the Williams Brothers Mine last showed signs of activity shortly after Hurricane Harvey. It appears to have been abandoned, but the Montgomery County Appraisal District shows that William Brothers still owns the property.
The satellite image below from Google Earth shows the respective locations of the two mines.
Eagle Mine (north) separated from Williams Brothers Mine (south) by White Sands Drive.Date 2/19/24 – before May flood wiped out Williams Brothers dike.
Eagle Sorters Mine Opens the Drain
Let’s look at the Eagle mine first.
West Fork in foreground, silty pit in background, and trench running between them.Reverse angle. Trench (center) leads from pit to West Fork at top of frame.Enlargement shows tracks of heavy equipment, such as an excavator, between the piles of loose dirt next to road.
This breach appears intentional.
Nature Finishes Job Started in January at Williams Mine
At the Williams Brothers Mine during May floods, nature finished the job it started in January. As reported in February, half of the dike that separated the mine from the river partially collapsed in the late January flood.
Giant slabs peeled off, taking huge trees and half of the mine’s perimeter road with them.
Williams Brothers dike after January Flood.
No you see it. Now you don’t.
Reverse angle.During May flood, dike disappeared altogether. Looking SW from over pit toward West Fork, which cuts diagonally through upper right.Looking downriver. West Fork on right, mine on left.Breach is approximately 600 feet long.
This wasn’t a pit capture in the traditional sense. At least not yet. It was more like nature making a hostile corporate takeover.
As you can see in the satellite image below, the Willliams Brothers mine sits on a point bar. The river has forced its way into the pit and will almost certainly cut the rest of the way through it in some future flood. See red arrow below.
River has now cut its way into pit, but has some distance to go before exiting other side.
We will need to watch this closely in future floods.
Consequences
In recent weeks, we’ve talked extensively about excessive sedimentation that blocks drainage ditches farther down the West Fork, potential flooding impacts and the high cost of remediation.
A study by Jacobs in Australia discusses many other dangers of floodplain mining. They include channel widening, undercutting of banks, and increased erosion and sediment transport.
However, understand that this isn’t floodplain mining per se. It’s floodway mining.
That means the mines are in the main body of the current during floods. So when the SJRA releases 72,000 CFS, look out below!
The red arrow in the map above shows the likely centerline of the current when the pit is finally captured. That means the center of the river will be a quarter mile closer to the new high $75 million high school shown in the lower center of the satellite image.
Part of the floodplain already crosses Sorters-McClellan Road. And FEMA has advised that the new flood maps, when released, will show the floodplains expanding 50% on average.
If that happens here, floodwaters will lap at the front door of the new high school. Oh well. It only cost $75 million dollars or so. And it isn’t even finished yet. But TACA says we need the sand to support growth.
As they say in high school, there’s a learning opportunity here. This is why we should keep sand mines farther back from rivers. It’s a public safety issue. End of lecture.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/9/24
2476 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
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6/8/24 – Today, I discovered another sand pit captured by the San Jacinto West Fork. I also discovered two more pits with breached dikes. That makes at least four San Jacinto West Fork sand pits seriously damaged by the last storm.
The West Fork has now captured a pit that Hallett owned until earlier this year and another that it still owns.
Let’s look at each. See the photos below.
Photos Taken on 6/8/24
Pit Capture #1
I discovered the first pit capture in mid-May and photographed it again today.
Looking from over West Fork at blocked channel and former Hallett pit. River now runs through the pit.
Hallett sold this mile-long,, half-mile-wide pit to a real estate company called Riverwalk Porter LLC in January, just days before the first breach at the downstream end. The breach at the northern end, in the foreground above, happened in May.
Pit capture is a phenomenon where the river cuts through one side of a mine and out the other. Watch it happen in this table top experiment.
Pit Capture #2
I discovered a second pit capture today. The river punched through one side of the pit and now flows out the other. It’s taking a shortcut through the pit, rather than going around like it used to.
Note how the river curves way out to the upper left in the photo. The inside of that curve used to be what geologists call a point bar. Such areas usually contain finely sorted sand. And indeed, historical images in Google Earth show trucks pulling sand from river banks before Hallett started mining here.
Hallett pit on another point bar, also captured by West ForkRiver flows from top to bottom.
Ironically, this area was being considered by the SJRA for its sand trap study. They may have to reconsider that now.
Breach #1
Another pit purchased from Hallett by Riverwalk Porter LLC also drains directly into the West Fork. Nothing holds it back now.
The area around the pipe has expanded into a chasm.
Breach #2
Farther north, Heidelberg Materials Southwest Agg LLC owns another pit that now drains into the West Fork.
Looking S from over West Fork (bottom left) toward Heidelberg Property.
Historical satellite images of the Heidelberg property show that they started mining it decades ago. Then they sold the mine to another company and recently repurchased it. While this particular area is recovering, the company appears to be mining other areas around it.
And look what’s happening downstream from the breach above. Could this be a third pit capture in the making?
Downstream at the same pond, the river looks as though it could soon punch through another narrow dike. Photo taken 5/22/24.
If and when this happens, the river could then route itself through the pit above. That would make at least three pits captured on the West Fork.
There may be more breaches and pit captures that I have not yet found.
Geomorphic Processes Accelerated to a Human Time Scale
It’s interesting to watch geomorphic processes at work on a human time scale. It’s also disconcerting to know that without help from miners and the TCEQ – which did not establish setbacks of mines from rivers until 2021 – the West Fork would have much less sediment pollution.
See below.
Confluence of Spring Creek (left) and San Jacinto West Fork (right), where all of the sand mine breaches above area.
If you wish to lodge a complaint with the TCEQ, go to this web page. Last time I heard, they only inspect the river once every three years unless citizens file complaints.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/8/24
2475 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
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6/7/24 – Last night, the Kingwood Service Association (KSA) Parks Committee discussed the future of its River Grove boat launch. As reported previously on ReduceFlooding.com, the boat launch has become seriously blocked by sand and other sediment coming downriver during the May floods, primarily from the West Fork San Jacinto.
After floods in January, boaters complained of difficulty navigating through the sediment to the river. So KSA commissioned a sonar study. It showed that approximately 11,500 cubic yards of sediment needed to be dredged to open the channel. The cost approached $800,000…without any contingency funds built in.
KSA’s board authorized the Parks Committee to spend the money at its April Board Meeting. However, board members also requested the Parks Committee to explore ways to lower the cost first.
During that exploration, May floods deposited even more sand. To avoid surprise overages, a dredging subcommittee asked the low bidder to do another sonar survey. The new survey indicated that the amount of sand needing removal increased about 50 percent.
Budget-Busting Costs
The cost – without any contingency funds for overages – represents 49% of KSA’s current Capital Assets Reserve Fund balance. And that prompted many tough questions from the Parks Committee. Especially since boat dock usage represents only a small part of KSA’s responsibilities. And because a relatively small percentage of Kingwood residents use the boat docks.
Through June 5, KSA has issued 837 boat trailer stickers. Compare that to 23,842 regular vehicle stickers. Only 3.5% of the vehicles using Kingwood parks use the boat launch.
Meanwhile East End Park needs extensive trail restoration after the last storm. And KSA is about to renovate the entry at Kingwood Drive and US59.
Note, however, that the mouth of the Kingwood Diversion Ditch (at the boat docks) also plays a role in flooding. The ditch drains the western third of Kingwood. And when it became blocked during Harvey, hundreds of homes behind the blockage flooded.
Options KSA Considered
Here is a slight revision of the River Grove boat launch presentation that the KSA Parks Committee reviewed last night. The revisions reflect changes discussed in the meeting.
To make it easier to understand, I’ve also shown the individual pages below with some background information.
The title slide shows sediment buildup at the mouth of the Kingwood Diversion Ditch in River Grove. Not only does it affect boating, if sediment continues to build, it could eventually back water up into homes as it did during Harvey.
Image taken after May floods when lake was down slightly for gate repairs at dam.
The next section of the presentation covered developments since the last Parks Committee meeting.
After the first sonar survey of the River Grove Boat Launch in February, the Dredging Subcommittee authorized a second survey to quantify the amount of additional sediment deposited by May storms and the cost impact…even as it looked for ways to reduce costs.
The cost of the second survey was necessary to be considered for FEMA debris removal/flood mitigation funds. You must prove that the money requested came from the storm covered by a disaster declaration. This became a huge issue with the Mouth Bar after Harvey.
The amount of sediment requiring removal increased 50% during May. The low bidder proposed hydraulic as opposed to mechanical dredging which is much faster. And the sediment would go to a property owner on the south shore of the river, instead of being trucked away.
By paying the landowner directly, KSA avoids markup on disposal costs.
The slide below shows an estimate of the revised costs and the current balance in KSA’s capital assets reserve fund. The River Grove Boat Launch dredging would consume 49% of KSA’s fund balance. Even though more sand is being dredged, the ability to pump the sand across the river helped to keep direct dredging costs close to the first estimate.
What to Do? Options Considered
With all that as background, the next slides present additional dimensions of the problem. The photo below shows the confluence of Spring Creek (left) and the West Fork (right) at US59. Sediment is now coming downriver from the West Fork after flowing through a mile-long sand pit.
The photo above helps explain the sediment build up at the River Grove Boat Launch: 5+ feet in places at the mouth of the Diversion Ditch and an average of 1.5 feet across the entire dredging area.
The dredging-company representative said he’d never seen anything like it in that short of a period.
And a retired Army Corps representative who helped lead the Emergency West Fork Dredging Project after Harvey said, “After we completed our survey of the area, we predicted sedimentation will be a perpetual problem at this location.”
Hydrologists call the photo below a “difference map. The colors represent the difference between the first and second surveys. It shows the build up between mid-February and mid-May outside the River Grove Boat Launch. The red, orange and yellow areas show the greatest build up. Blue and green show the lesser areas.
Note the options listed on the left. They set up a discussion of the pros and cons for each alternative.
Pros and Cons of Options
For the sake of brevity, I’ll let you read the pros and cons from the visuals in the following slides. They are fairly self explanatory.
In the first option, KSA would seek help with dredging costs. This became a possibility when the Governor and President issued disaster declarations for this area last month. Suddenly, federal money became available for debris removal and flood mitigation. The sand deposits might qualify under either.
Council Members Fred Flickinger and Twila Carter have already reviewed the pre/post surveys and forwarded them to the City’s Chief Resilience Officer, Stephen Costello, for help with developing an application.
However, the outcome won’t be known for a while. So, if that option fails, KSA could make the decision to dredge one more time using its own money. But if a hurricane should come along and fill the sand back in, then KSA would wipe out its capital asset reserves fund. Hence the emphasis on “ONE” below.
Another option the Parks Committee agreed to explore was asking the City to dredge. The City is strapped for cash right now, but if the City could get funds from FEMA to cover the removal, it might be possible. That’s because the City already has a dredge in the river for a separate project between Kings Point and FM1960.
If FEMA covered the sand deposited after the first survey, perhaps a cost-sharing arrangement could be worked out with the City for the rest.
After all, the City owns the lake and the lake is developing a sediment problem. The City also has responsibility for maintaining the outfalls of the ditches around the lake.
While discussing ways to reduce dredging costs, KSA’s low bidder suggested long-term ways to make periodic dredging more affordable and sustainable.
This is not an immediate answer to the problem, but could be considered as a follow-on option if one of the others becomes possible.
Example: the dredging company suggested building a jetty to deflect floodwaters out into the river instead of letting them curl into the gap between the islands.
They also suggested building low underwater rock walls that could catch sand scooting along the riverbed. This could trap sediment behind the walls. And that could help minimize the area needing dredging in the future. Hopefully, that could also make dredging more affordable and sustainable in the future.
However, the permitting and construction costs for those measures would be in addition to any dredging done now.
Some people on the parks committee felt the jetty might work in small floods, but not in larger ones like we just had.
KSA also considered an option to just close the boat dock. However, after discussion, a compromise became clear: just limit its use.
This would let families with smaller watercraft, such as canoes, kayaks and paddle boards, continue to use the facilities if they could portage over the developing sand bar. Large boats would have to seek other places to launch.
Next Steps and Timetable for Decision
The Parks Committee agreed that the options needed to be shared with HOAs and residents. Hopefully, after debate, public comment, and more exploration of the options, consensus may develop around one of the options. The community can then make a decision in the fall when people return from summer vacations about both short- and long-range plans for the River Grove boat launch.
Make Your Feelings Known
If you live in Kingwood, please share this post with friends and neighbors. And make sure you register your opinion with your homeowner association officers.
Even though most residents don’t use the boat launch, many people might like to have the option. And that option could affect home values. For instance, imagine if a potential buyer for your home someday owned a boat.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/7/2024
2474 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
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