Latest NHC Forecasts Show Francine Aiming for Louisiana

9/10/24 – Update: At 7 PM, the National Hurricane Center announced that Francine became a hurricane with sustained winds of 75 MPH and higher gusts. By 10:20, hurricane hunter aircraft found sustained winds of 85 MPH with central pressure of 979 mb. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. Other details have not changed much since 4PM. See below.

The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 4 PM update shows Tropical Storm Francine taking aim for Louisiana. Its impacts will likely diminish in the Houston area. However, tropical storm warnings and watches now extend past Louisiana into Mississippi and Alabama, as the forecast track shifts farther east.

Francine at 3:46 PM CDT, 9/10/24

Francine Winds and Forward Speed

At 4 PM, Francine still packed 65 MPH winds with higher gusts. But NHC expects it to reach hurricane strength tonight. By convention, storms become hurricanes at 74 MPH.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Sabine Pass eastward to Grand Isle. NHC forecasts that Francine could reach 80 knots/92 MPH at landfall in central Louisiana. If accurate, that would put it just shy of a Category 2 hurricane.

Hurricane hunter aircraft found that pressure in the central core had dropped to 987 mb. The storm has become better organized with increased banding.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. To put that in perspective, Beaumont is 175 miles from Baton Rouge, which is in central Louisiana.

Two NHC graphics depict the probability of damaging winds reaching the Houston area. The first shows the north Houston area has a 5-10 percent chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds.

The second shows we have a zero percent chance of experiencing hurricane force winds.

Track

According to NHC, Francine has made a turn toward the northeast and increased its forward motion to 10+ MPH. It should reach the central Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening. A continued northeastward motion and a faster forward speed are expected tonight and Wednesday.

Surge

We still can expect storm surge in coast areas all the way from Freeport to the Florida Panhandle.

With that comes the associated risk of rip currents.

Rainfall

Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead
to considerable flash and urban flooding in those locations.

However, Jeff Linder, Harris County’s meteorologist less than an inch of rain in the Lake Houston Area.

We barely have a chance for flash flooding. And significant rainfall accumulations will be concentrated east of Texas.

5-Day Accumulated Rainfall Predictions from the National Weather Service

While the Lake Houston Area may be spared the storm’s worst effects, the Mississippi Valley won’t. NHC predicts significant flooding for that area.

Today Is Statistical Peak of Hurricane Season

Today is the statistical peak of hurricane season and Francine makes our sixth named storm in the Atlantic Basin.

To put that in perspective, during the last 30 years, we usually have had 10 named storms by September 4 and 11 by September 14. So despite early dire warnings, this season has been less severe than normal.

The 2017 hurricane season should remind us all that it only takes one storm to change lives forever. Pray for our neighbors to the east. And remain vigilant.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/10/24

2569 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 69 since Beryl


TS Francine Will Now Likely Strike East of Houston

9/9/24 – 7 PM update – Francine is strengthening faster than expected. Current sustained winds are 65 MPH and NHC predicts the storm will be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. The post below was written at 2PM this afternoon.

This morning Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 intensified and formed a center of circulation. With winds currently at 60 MPH, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) named it Tropical Storm Francine. NHC expects it to intensify into a hurricane tomorrow. Francine’s current predicted track will take it inland over Louisiana.

At the moment, models suggest the worst of the storm will miss Houston to the south and the east.

At 1 PM CDT, TS Francine was still between Brownsville, TX and the Yucatan.

Watches and Warnings Now In Effect

As of Monday at 2 PM CDT, NHC had issued the following watches and warnings:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

  • High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
  • Vermilion Bay
  • Lake Maurepas
  • Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

  • The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

  • Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
  • Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
  • East of High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana
  • East of Grand Isle to Mouth of the Pearl River
  • Lake Pontchartrain
  • Lake Maurepas

Likely Track

The western edge of the cone of uncertainty extends westward to far east Texas.

Note, however, that the cone does not indicate the width of the storm. It simply means that the center of the storm has an equal chance of passing over every point within the cone. Because the storm is currently 160 miles wide, if Francine made landfall toward the western edge of the cone, the Houston area could see significant impacts.

Still, models agree that the storm will likely make landfall in Louisiana.

Storm Surge

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to flood from
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

  • Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…5-10 ft
  • Vermilion Bay…5-10 ft
  • Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA…4-7 ft
  • High Island, TX to Cameron, LA…3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk-reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees.

Winds Approaching 86 MPH

Francine is moving at 5 MPH. NHC expects winds to peak at 75 knots (86 MPH) within 48 hours. That would make Francine a Category 1 Hurricane. Cat 1 ranges from 74 to 95 MPH.

The highest winds will likely focus on southern Louisiana.

Tropical storm force winds could be felt in the Houston area as early as late tomorrow afternoon into evening.

However, the most likely arrival times will be approximately 12 hours earlier.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, feels, “There is a 30-50% chance of TS force winds on Wednesday along the upper Texas coast and a 10-20% chance of tropical-storm-force winds across the metro-Houston area.”

“Squalls and bands of rain will begin to move into the outer coastal waters on Tuesday and spread toward the coast. Some of the activity is likely to impact the coastal counties Tuesday night into Wednesday depending on the exact track.”

“Hurricane conditions may graze our outer coastal waters Wednesday afternoon, but at this time the probability of sustained hurricane force winds along the upper Texas coast is generally 5-10% from roughly Freeport to Sabine Pass,” said Lindner.

Rainfall and Flooding

According to NHC, Francine will bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash flooding to portions of the southernmost Texas coast, the Upper Texas Coast, southern Louisiana, and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.
A risk of flash and urban flooding exists across portions of the Mid-South from Wednesday into Friday morning.

Lindner predicts, “Rainfall amounts over SE TX have generally been pulled back some with the eastward track shifts and it is likely the core of heaviest rainfall will remain offshore. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches can be expected along the coast with amounts of generally less than an inch inland of US 59.”

Whew. Keep your fingers crossed and hope that Francine stays south of us. We haven’t even finished cleanup from Beryl yet.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/9/24 at 2PM

2568 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 63 since Beryl

NHC Issues Advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6

9/8/24 – At 4 PM, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 (PTC 6). PTC 6 is currently an elongated area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.

PTC 6 is currently trying to organize over the Bay of Campeche. Satellite photo from Sept. 8, 2024, at 3 PM CDT.

Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday, with more significant intensification forecast to occur on Tuesday.

Tropical storm force winds should reach the Houston area by Tuesday night. And the system should become a hurricane by Wednesday afternoon. (See graphics below.)

Tropical-storm-force winds already extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km), primarily west of the center.

Wind-Speed Classifications

Tropical cyclones rotate counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere. They are classified as follows:

  • Tropical Depression: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph (33 knots) or less.
  • Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph (34 to 63 knots).
  • Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph (64 knots) or higher.
  • Major Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph (96 knots) or higher, corresponding to a Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Models suggest the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone 6 should become well defined by tomorrow afternoon. Until then, the track forecast remains very uncertain.

Life-Threatening Storm Surge

According to the NHC, it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts. However, NHC warns that the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are increasing for portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines beginning Tuesday night.

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area on Monday, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of flash flooding.

Graphics for Potential Tropical Cyclone 6

 
CenterPoint Warning

At 2:45 CDT, CenterPoint Energy texted warnings to customers. “We continue to monitor and prepare for a potential tropical system in the Gulf which may impact the Greater Houston area over the next few days.”

The text continued, “We encourage you to prepare an emergency plan. Customers who depend on electricity for life-sustaining equipment are encouraged to make alternate arrangements for on-site backup capabilities or other alternatives in the event of loss of electric service. For safety tips, visit CenterPointEnergy.com/StormCenter.”

After Beryl, I purchased power system that can be charged by solar panels. I’m feeling pretty good about that purchase now.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/8/24 based on information from NHC

2567 Days since Hurricane Harvey

How NOT to Reduce Flooding: Deferring Maintenance

9/7/24 – For seven years, I have focused on ways to reduce flooding. But today, I’d like to discuss a big way not to reduce flooding – by deferring maintenance.

Deferring Maintenance: A Bad Idea

One of the most common root causes of flooding that I see is delayed, deferred, overlooked and/or ignored maintenance. You wouldn’t buy a new car and not maintain it. It’s the same way with flood control. But that’s what we’ve been doing.

If you build a channel or a ditch, you should budget routine inspections, and periodic repairs and maintenance.

For a dramatic example, see the two photos below. As I was driving south on Loop 494 this afternoon, I saw a scene near East Memorial Drive that reminded me of a preventable flooding disaster in Porter back in 2018.

Local businesses flooded when the ditch below at the end of the road backed water up.

TxDOT improved the ditch that caused the flooding above. But guess what? The blockage is back. I took the picture below this afternoon.

The new porter dam due to deferred maintenance
Blocked ditch on Loop 494 and Memorial Drive in Porter, Montgomery County.

Mike Eberle, a business owner nearby who flooded back in 2018, dubbed this area the Porter Dam. Oops. Back where we started.

The ditch has silted in. And vegetation is growing up through the grate. Meanwhile, debris washed down the ditch and has blocked it even more. It’s only a matter of time before flooding recurs.

And just when we have a potential tropical storm brewing in the gulf. The National Hurricane Center gives it an 80% chance of formation within the next five days.

Will clearing the Porter Dam be high on TxDOT’s to-do list in the next five days? Probably not. Even though the rain predicted could exceed the amount that caused the flooding above.

Deferred Maintenance: A Problem Everywhere

Deferred maintenance is a huge problem everywhere, not just in Montgomery County or on TxDOT roads. And it’s not just vegetation management.

Erosion, when ignored, can run wild and threaten homes. In the case below, it was neglected so long that trees fell into the ditch and blocked it, backing water up.

Eroded ditch in Huffman. Erosion like this didn’t happen overnight.
Colony Ridge erosion
Eroding ditch in Liberty County has grown more than 80 feet in width in just 10 years and now threatens homes.

And wherever sediment accumulates, it can cause ditches to lose much of their ability to convey stormwater. Bens Branch, for instance, was down to a “2-year level-of-service” in places. That means, water would come out of the banks after a two-year rain. See the first picture below.

Bens Branch at Rocky Woods in January 2021 before start of clean-out project. Over the years, deferred maintenance had reduced the conveyance of the stream.

However, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) initiated a clean-out effort to restore the conveyance of Ben’s Branch from Northpark Drive to Kings Harbor. In this section alone, HCFCD removed more than 10,000 cubic yards of accumulated sediment.

Bens Branch
Same area four months later after restoration. Greenish substance on banks is hydromulch.

Plea for Tax Increase to Improve Maintenance

In Harris County, HCFCD created this presentation on deferred maintenance for Commissioners Court consideration on 8/15/24. It makes the case for a potential tax increase which voters will be asked to approve on November 5.

Key points:

  • We have a huge amount of drainage infrastructure requiring regular maintenance.
  • Much of the infrastructure is nearing the end of its useful life (when it costs more to maintain).
  • And every year, we add more and more infrastructure requiring more maintenance.
  • But investment in maintenance has been flat over time (see graph below).
  • Maintenance investment has lagged behind capital improvement spending by as much as 9 to 1.
From Page 5 of HCFCD maintenance presentation to Commissioners Court.

Flood control is asking for an additional $110 million for its maintenance budget to help remedy these problems. Any increase in tax revenue would go to the HCFCD’s dedicated maintenance account. Those funds are marked specifically for maintenance efforts and support services, according to Emily Woodell, a department spokesperson.

Fool Me Twice?

I can support the HCFCD request. But before I vote for it, I want to see language in the proposal that guarantees it won’t all be spent somewhere else. I’d also like to see language that revokes the tax increase if it is. Or if:

  • Maintenance is delayed here longer than anywhere else.
  • Social factors, not flood risk, determine the distribution of dollars.
  • County leaders try to redefine the commonly accepted, dictionary meanings of terms like “equity” or “worst.”

We’ve been burned by certain commissioners who flagrantly renege on promises made in Commissioners Court. I won’t let that happen again. As the old saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”

I intend to read this proposition very, very closely. And when I step into the voting booth, I won’t be hoping for the best. I’ll be fearing how I’ll get screwed again, exactly like we did with the 2018 and 2022 Bonds.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/7/24

2566 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Chances of Tropical Formation in Gulf Increasing for Next Week

9/6/24 – Between yesterday and today, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the chances of tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico for next week. Yesterday, NHC gave that orange area a 10% chance of development in the next seven days. Earlier this afternoon, they updated that to 40%. And by this evening, they upgraded it again to 50%.

Also, the National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a gale watch for offshore waters tomorrow. And NWS predicts another 4-10 inches of rain for the Houston area next week.

Tropical Activity Heating Up

According to the National Hurricane Center, “A tropical wave located over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, where it could then begin to interact with a frontal boundary. A tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.”

Tropical outlook as of 1:50 PM EDT, 9/6/24

Here’s what those two areas currently look like on a satellite photo.

Tropics at 3:30PM CDT on 9/6/24

According to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner, “A tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean Sea and the surface low over the NW Gulf will merge over the western Gulf going into early next week. As high pressure over the plains moves eastward the steering flow will turn to the south and begin to lift whatever is in the western Gulf northward toward the TX coast.”

Another 4-10 Inches of Rain Predicted for Next Week

Lindner predicts increasing moisture late Monday with a much more significant surge of moisture coming into the area starting on Tuesday. Regardless of tropical formation, rains will spread northward from the Gulf into the Houston area. Heavy rainfall looks possible into the middle of next week.

The National Weather Service predicts accumulations in the next seven days could range from 4-10 inches in the Houston region. The larger accumulations will be near the coast. Rainfall totals offshore could range up to 20 inches!

NWS Weather Prediction Center rainfall accumulation totals as of 2:50PM on 9/6/24.

We’ve already achieved our average rainfall for the year. Yet we have almost 4 months yet to go.

Compare dark to light green peaks in bottom graph.

High Winds, Gale Watch Saturday

The National Weather Service has issued a gale watch for Saturday morning through evening as high pressure pushes the moisture currently over us to the south and then east.

Ironically, this will usher in drier weather for Sunday, but it will make boating dangerous on Saturday. North winds will average 25-35 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Seas will average 9-11 feet.

Peak of Hurricane Season Just Days Away

Earlier this year, experts predicted an extremely active hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. But so far, we’ve had only five named storms.

StormDatesMax Wind (mph)
Tropical Storm Alberto19-20 June50
Major Hurricane Beryl28 June to 9 July165
Tropical Storm Chris30 June to 1 July45
Hurricane Debby3-9 August80
Hurricane Ernesto12-20 August100
Source: NHC Tropical Weather Summary as of 9/1/24

That puts us three behind the average for the last 30 years. Usually, we get the eighth named storm of the season by September 9th.

And the peak of hurricane season occurs on September 10 with the most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October.

peak of hurricane season

Best to bookmark the National Hurricane Center home page and check it daily for the next few weeks. This is the time of year when NHC updates its site every few hours. So, they have the most up-to-date forecasts and they are the acknowledged source of definitive information about tropical systems.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/6/2024

2565 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Congressional Budget Office Provides Wealth of Flood Data

9/5/2024 – The Congressional Budget Office has produced a series of reports that provides a wealth of flood data.

Economist Evan Herrnstadt, Ph.D., was interviewed today in a First Street Foundation webinar. He has produced an impressive, data-packed series of reports on different aspects of flooding for public-policy makers. Herrnstadt is the Principal Analyst in the Microeconomic Studies Division of the Congressional Budget Office.

Nine Studies Examine Financial, Demographic Impacts of Flooding

To make his team’s work easier to find and review, I’ve posted their studies on the Reports Page of ReduceFlooding.com under a new Congressional Budget Office Tab. Below are links to and one sentence descriptions for each of the nine reports.

Clearing out the Cobwebs

The wealth of flood data in these reports is national, not local. Regardless, good economists have a way of clearing out the cobwebs. And Herrnstadt clearly knows how to put things in perspective. I will refer to these reports from time to time in the future.

For now, let me just quote a couple eye-bulging stats from the last report. “Flood Damage avoided by Potential Spending on Property-Level Adaptations” looks at buyouts and home elevations. When looking at 1.3 million homes, Herrnstadt found that avoided costs averaged $2.69 for every $1 invested. If those projects were all completed, they would cost a total of $193 billion and prevent $519 billion of expected damages during the next 30 years.

In extreme cases, Herrnstadt found the payback ratio could be 6 to 1. And that doesn’t even include “pain and suffering” costs associated with flood damage.

Figure 6, Page 14 of Flood Damage Avoided by Potential Spending on Property-Level Adaptations

This data shows how we could be saving hundreds of billions of dollars. These reports are literally gold mines of data.

For the First Street Foundation’s interview with Herrnstadt, see this YouTube video.

Learn more about the purpose and methodologies of the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office here.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/5/24

2564 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Nature Enjoys a Vacuum

More than 2000 years ago, Aristotle coined the phrase, “Nature abhors a vacuum.” But in the case of River Grove Park since Beryl, it should be, “Nature enjoys a vacuum.”

Flooded out, sanded in, and still under repair from May flooding and Beryl, humans may be visiting River Grove Park less frequently these days. But nature is filling the void.

Park Still Has Plenty to Offer

The park still has plenty to offer. I drove there today to test some new camera gear and found the park practically deserted.

  • A few people were using the boardwalk.
  • The soccer fields and playground were empty.
  • Disc golf is undergoing major repairs as crews clear dozens of fallen trees (from Beryl).
  • The main parking lot was virtually empty, thanks to sand blocking the boat dock.

So, I didn’t get the sports action shots I thought I might see. But I got something equally as impressive. Nature…up close and unspoiled.

Instead of water skiers and fishermen, great blue herons and great egrets stalked the shallows at the entrance to the Kingwood Diversion Ditch by the boat dock.

Great egret dining near the boat dock.
As I crept closer, the egret prepared to swallow its catch. Note the drop of water dripping from the beak.
Gulp…and it was gone.
Farther out in the river, beyond the newly deposited sand bar, a great blue heron staged its own fishing expedition.

Even though River Grove repairs are far from complete, the park still has much to offer nature lovers.

Dredging Prospects

For now, the boat dock is still open for canoes, kayaks, jet skies, and other smaller watercraft that can get over the sand bar. KSA and the City are currently waiting to hear from FEMA about a possible grant to dredge the mouth of the channel. So enjoy the natural aspects of the park while you can.

Many thanks to the Kingwood Service Association for maintaining this precious gem for all Kingwood residents. Even those with feathers.

Posted by Bob Rehak

2563 Days since Hurricane Harvey

GLO Posts Six State Action-Plan Amendments for Public Comment

9/3/2024 – Today, the Texas General Land Office (GLO) posted six state action-plan amendments for public comment. The amendments reallocate remaining money from federal grants for disasters between 2008 and 2019.

Includes Disaster Recovery Reallocation Program

Each of the six amendments includes a new Disaster Recovery Reallocation Program (DRRP). The DRRP will let the GLO utilize de-obligated and un-utilized funds remaining within the action plan for each disaster.

The $135 million being reallocated pales in comparison to the billions of dollars in unmet needs around the state. Better matching remaining dollars with remaining needs will help create a more resilient Texas. And simplifying the application process will help use up available money before federal deadlines expire.

Action-Plan Amendments, Deadlines, Major Changes

The GLO provided this summary of the deadlines for public comment on each amendment:

  • Hurricanes Ike and Dolly Amendment 7
    • Federally required public comment period of 7 days will end at 5:00 PM on September 11, 2024.
  • 2015 Floods and Storms Amendment 6
    • Federally required public comment period of 14 days will end at 5:00 PM on September 18, 2024.
  • 2016 Floods and Storms Amendment 8
    • Federally required public comment period of 14 days will end at 5:00 PM on September 18, 2024.
  • Hurricane Harvey $5.6 Billion Amendment 16
    • Federally required public comment period of 30 days will end at 5:00 PM on October 4, 2024.
    • Includes updates to the Harris County Homeowner Assistance, Residential Buyout, Affordable Rental and Single Family New Construction Programs.
    • Includes updates to the City of Houston Single Family Development and Buyout Programs.
  • 2018 South Texas Floods Amendment 2
    • Federally required public comment period of 30 days will end at 5:00 PM on October 4, 2024.
    • Includes updates to the Specific Conditions Report in Appendix H.
  • 2019 Disasters Amendment 3
    • Federally required public comment period of 30 days will end at 5:00 PM on October 4, 2024.
    • Includes updates to the Specific Conditions Report in Appendix G.
Cover of Amendment 16 to Harvey Action Plan

The six action-plan amendments are available for review at https://recovery.texas.gov/public-notices.

Submit all comments to cdr@recovery.texas.gov by 5:00 p.m. on their respective ending dates.  

$135 Million Reallocated

The Hurricane Ike action plan amendment creates the DRRP. It will utilize remaining program funds from current disaster recovery grants from 2008 to 2019, with the exception of the 2011 Wildfires grant.

DRRP will expedite the expenditure of funds to comply with HUD’s timely expenditure requirements through a call for projects across multiple grants.

Ike Action Plan Amendment, page 2.

Each project will undergo eligibility analysis based on the grant that used to fund it.

As funds continue to be identified through the de-obligation process, they will be added to the DRRP
program. All remaining funds will be reallocated to this program for each grant.

The amounts going into the DRRP “pot” total $135 million. That includes:

Together, they total $135,000,000. 

Consult Individual Plans for More Details

Based on the Dolly/Ike amendment, GLO will do a single call for projects statewide. Each agency that responds can submit up to two applications, and they will score them based on the published criteria.  

Those criteria total more than 800 pages. Criteria for each of the six amendments are hyperlinked with the amounts above.

While that’s a daunting number of pages to read, GLO provides tables that show where money is going from and to, plus rules that will govern grant awards.

The GLO will perform the eligibility analysis to make applications easier. “We want this to be as simple as possible for applicants, so they will only have to submit one application and have all of the difficult analysis of eligibility and funding streams on our end,” said Brittany Eck, a GLO spokesperson.

If nothing else, these amendments dramatize how complex the flood mitigation process is. Today is 2562 days since Hurricane Harvey. But Hurricane Ike struck Houston on September 11, 2008. That’s 5836 days ago!

How to Submit Public Comments

Submit all comments to cdr@recovery.texas.gov by 5:00 p.m. on their respective ending dates to be considered. GLO requests that you please include the name and number of the action-plan amendments that you’re commenting on in the subject line. 

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/3/24

2562 Days since Hurricane Harvey

TCEQ Report on West Fork Pit Capture Doesn’t Mention “Pit Capture”

9/2/24 – On 8/26/24, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) issued a report on a San Jacinto West Fork pit capture. “Pit capture” happened when the river cut through an abandoned sand pit on a point bar instead of taking the long way around it. Worldwide, many environmental consequences have been linked to such pit captures. However, the TCEQ report never mentions the phrase.

Several area residents filed separate complaints with the TCEQ. Even though the report lists eight separate incident numbers, TCEQ apparently conducted one investigation (#1976402) and issued one report.

This report does not discuss other pit captures that happened elsewhere in the West and East Fork watersheds earlier this year.

Past catching up with Montgomery County
San Jacinto West Fork entering pit and abandoning its normal channel on May 22.

The TCEQ report, which took four months to investigate, compile and release, did not:

  • Refer to any water-quality measurements, even though the complaints concerned water quality.
  • Address other sand-mine dike beaches and emissions in the same area
  • Explore downstream impacts.
  • Result in any reprimands, letters of enforcement, or violations.

TCEQ Finds No Problems

The four-month effort resulted in no action. Apparently, the TCEQ feels that since the pit is no longer being actively mined, it is no longer a threat to the public. It simply concludes that the incident falls within their “enforcement discretion” and they chose not to take any action.

TCEQ, which the Texas Sunset Commission dubbed a “reluctant regulator,” found nothing to get upset about even though the river:

  • Has abandoned its normal channel
  • Is now running through private property
  • Is eroding a Native-American graveyard.
Approximate location of entry and exit breaches relative to island with Native-American cemetery.

Who Operated This Pit?

The report also ignores a complex web of interlocking corporations involved with West Fork sand mining. They include, but are not limited to, Hallett Materials, RGI, JR Development and the Rasmussen Group, headquartered in Des Moines, Iowa.

  • The first paragraph of the report states that the investigation was conducted to “evaluate compliance for RGI Materials, Inc. of the Porter Plant site located north of the West Fork San Jacinto River.” [Emphasis added.]
  • But the report lists GPS coordinates for a pond on the south and west sides of the river. It also shows photos of the pit on the south and west sides.
  • According to the Montgomery County Appraisal District (MCAD), JR Development Inc. owned that pit until January of this year. It sold the land to Riverwalk Porter LLC on January 23.

The report cites information obtained through a Jacob McCurry and identifies him as a Vice President of RGI Materials. But the Hallett Materials website lists Jacob McCurry as its Operations Manager.

The report never mentions Hallett, the largest operator on the West Fork. Hallett:

  • Currently operates another pit captured by the West Fork about a mile north of the pit that the TCEQ investigated.
  • Operates a settling pond directly across the river from the pit that TCEQ investigated. That pond has been leaking almost continuously into the river since January through another pit that RGI used to own.

The Texas Secretary of State shows that RGI is an assumed name of Hallett Materials.

It’s all very confusing. Except for the TCEQ report’s conclusion. The TCEQ is taking no action.

Erosion of Cemetery

In 2018, I met Kurt Rasmussen at the Hallett plant. Rasmussen is part of the family that controls Hallett, RGI, and JR Development.

He gave me a tour of the captured pit on the south and west sides of the river. He also told me that Hallett was prohibited from mining that island in the middle of the pit because it is a Native American burial ground.

As a result of the pit capture, dikes no longer protect that island from the river and erosion.

Burial ground (upper left) in middle of pit captured by West Fork. Photo 5/13/24.

Unmentioned Problems with Pit Captures

The TCEQ report never mentions “pit capture.” Nor does it mention any of the problems associated with pit capture discussed in academic literature.

Where a river enters a pit, erosion typically migrates upstream (headcutting). That can lead to more river bank erosion. (You can already see it happening in the photo above on the right.)

Literature about pit captures also suggests that when rivers take a direct path through a sand pit, it can shorten the river’s length. This can increase the river’s gradient (slope) downstream, leading to faster water flow and more aggressive erosion.

Captured pits can act as sediment traps when water moves slow enough for sand to drop out of suspension. But when water moves as fast as it did in the May flood, it can stir up sediment and transport it downstream.

I measured the speed of water moving through the captured Hallett/RGI/JR Development/Rasmussen/Riverwalk pit at 5 miles per hour. That’s enough to pick up and transport large grains of sand.

This can contribute to increased sedimentation in downstream reaches, affecting water quality, habitat, and the morphology of the river.

West Fork sedimentation after upstream rainfall that rivaled Hurricane Harvey
Downstream from pit capture above at the confluence of Spring Creek and the West Fork. West Fork is on right.

That sediment began dropping out of suspension where the water slowed as it approached the headwaters of Lake Houston.

River Grove, diversion Ditch
Kingwood Diversion Ditch blocked at River Grove Park, downstream from confluence above. Dredging cost estimated at about $750,000.

The increased flow velocity after a sand pit capture can also lead to downcutting that disconnects the river from its floodplain, reducing the ability of the floodplain to absorb floodwaters and support wetland habitats.

Scientific reports also say that such downcutting can reduce the level of the water table and destroy riparian vegetation.

TCEQ Ignores Downstream Consequences

TCEQ concluded with the words: “the discharge from this pond has been granted enforcement discretion.” TCEQ chose not to issue any violations.

Their decision apparently stems from the fact that the pit is no longer actively used for mining. According to the report, the current owner, Riverwalk Porter LLC, claims it intends to use the property (and presumably the graveyard within it) for “recreational purposes such as hunting and camping.”

It’s unclear how TCEQ’s ruling will affect boating on the river. The public waterway now cuts through private property. Will boaters be trespassers?

So many questions! And the biggest one: Why did TCEQ not investigate other San Jacinto River Basin pit captures in active mines when its investigators were in the air?

To read the entire TCEQ report, click here.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/2/24

2561 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Flood Digest: Quick Updates on Six Flood-Mitigation Projects

8/30/24 – Another month has flown by. Below are quick updates on six flood-mitigation projects in the area.

HCFCD Beryl-related Ditch Maintenance

According to Jeremy Phillips, Director of Harris County Flood Control District’s (HCFCD) Asset Management Division, “The quickest way to ensure we are including debris in our post-storm cleanup is to fill out a service request online. We send them to our maintenance staff. They, in turn, ensure our contractors pick up the reported debris.”

I reported four trees this afternoon in a ditch that runs through Kings Forest just north of Kingwood Drive.

Blockage of Ditch in Kings Forest

The second is more serious: a cluster of three trees that have fallen across the ditch about 50 feet upstream.

Three more trees blocking same ditch in Kings Forest just feet away

Such blockages can catch other debris floating downstream during heavy rains and form dams that back water up into homes. HCFCD has 2500 miles of channels to patrol. Help them help you. Report any problems you see on the web page above.

Emily Woodell, a HCFCD spokesperson, said, “Through our Beryl debris removal efforts, we are currently at 10,966 tons of debris removed from 14 different watersheds. Based on our debris estimates, we are approximately 33% complete with our countywide debris removal operation.” Harris County maintains ditches, streams and bayous in 23 different watersheds.

Northpark Expansion

The expansion of Northpark Drive will create an all-weather evacuation route from Kingwood for almost 80,000 people when Hamblen and Kingwood Drive are cut off.

The project has been delayed by utility conflicts, but those now have reportedly been resolved. The Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority posted a new 3-week lookahead schedule yesterday.

The big news: new concrete is not far off.

In the next three weeks, contractors will focus on completing dirt work, preparing the sub-grade, and setting up rebar.

All photos below were taken on 8/30/24.

Rebar is being stockpiled in several places along the route.
Looking East from approximately where the bridge over the railroad tracks (behind camera position) will start.
Drainage work continues at several locations throughout the project. Here, you’re looking N at the SW corner of Northpark and Loop 494.

Tree Lane/Bens Branch Bridge Repair

I last posted about the Tree Lane bridge repairs over Bens Branch on 8/11/24. In the last 19 days, Houston Public Works has poured a few more loads of concrete and partially installed some culvert for a storm-drain outfall. No one was at the job site today.

New outfall on southeast side of Tree Lane Bridge.

This is the third attempt at repairs since 2019. The most recent started in February 2024. The original completion date was Spring 2024. Now it’s Fall 2024. Technically, Fall lasts until December 22. But there’s always 2025 as a fallback.

SJRA Projects

After Harvey, the San Jacinto River Authority engaged in several flood-mitigation projects with partners throughout the river basin. Projects included the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Study, a Sedimentation Study, a Sand-Trap Study and more. Unfortunately, none have been acted on yet.

The SJRA also worked with several other entities on the State’s first Flood Plan and developed a seasonal-lowering strategy for Lake Conroe to help protect downstream residents.

However, the seasonal strategy turned into an ad hoc Active Storm Management strategy under withering criticism and a lawsuit from the Lake Conroe Association. The new strategy contributed to the flooding of hundreds of homes in May. Thousands more nearly flooded. It was the second highest release in SJRA history, exceeded only by Harvey.

Today, SJRA published a newsletter supposedly informing readers about their flood mitigation progress. The first 279 words explained how they don’t have money to do anything. So, they’ve worked with partners and the partner’s money to produce studies…none of which have been acted on yet.

The last paragraph states, “The [Flood-Management] Division has received and utilized grant funding via the Flood Infrastructure Fund through the Texas Water Development Board for studies and projects which may lead to flood reduction benefits in the future.

“The Division will continue to pursue flood mitigation opportunities and partnerships throughout the region, with the ultimate goal of serving and improving the lives of the public,” said the newsletter.

Editorial Comment: The SJRA needs to focus on actionability in its studies.

Dredging

The City of Houston announced the start of a new dredging project in Lake Houston back on April 1. After delays due to floods, flood damage and a potential change in scope, they now hope to start within 30 days. I last saw them assembling pipe at the Army Corps’ old site south of the West Fork and the Forest Cove Pool.

The original project was designed to remove accumulated sediment between Kings Point and the FM1960 bridge.

The potential change in scope is encouraging. Due to additional sediment coming down from upstream during several floods earlier this year, the City has applied to FEMA for more money to cover several additional projects around the lake.

One such project is cleaning out the mouth of the Kingwood Diversion Ditch at River Grove Park. It has become badly silted in.

Diversion Ditch blockage.

A spokesperson for the City said they hope to hear from FEMA on this and other projects shortly.

The idea is to do as many projects as possible while the equipment is here. That reduces mobilization charges as a percentage of each job. And mobilization is a major component of most dredging jobs.

dredging prep
South of Forest Cove Pool, dredgers were assembling pipe on 7/16 while awaiting word on the final scope of the flood-mitigation projects.

Flood Gates

Earlier this week, I learned that FEMA and TDEM approved a change to an interlocal agreement in April concerning 11 new tainter gates for the Lake Houston Dam. The Coastal Water Authority approved the change in July. And the Houston City Council will take it up in September.

Councilman Fred Flickinger is reportedly meeting with Public Works next week to see what can be done to serve residents better and faster.

That’s this month’s roundup of flood-mitigation projects affecting the Lake Houston Area and Harris County.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/30/24

2558 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 54 since Beryl