TS Beryl Predicted to Reach Hurricane Strength within 24 Hours

6/29/24 1:30PM and updated at 3PM – Overnight, a tropical depression in the Atlantic turned into a tropical storm named Beryl. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted Beryl would intensify into a hurricane by Sunday morning. But it reached hurricane strength by approximately 3PM today. NHC now predicts, Beryl will become a category 3 major hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands.

Some models predict it could even turn into a category 4 hurricane as it tracks through the Caribbean. While it is generally headed toward the Gulf, the exact track remains uncertain this far out.

Beryl is one of the earliest hurricanes ever in the Atlantic. For advisories related to Beryl, see this page on the NHC site.

Meanwhile two other areas of concern are developing. One now over the Yucatan has a 50% chance of development. The other west of Africa has a 70% chance as of Saturday, 6/29/24 at 3PM CDT.

On top of all these storms, the Trinity River Authority has put the Lake Livingston Dam on “potential failure watch.”

Beryl Track

Beryl will continue west for the next 2-3 days. The storm’s strength will affect its track according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner. Intensity will determine Beryl’s ability to fight high pressure to the north. The stronger it becomes, the farther north it will curve. The less it intensifies, the farther west it will track.

“At this point it is too early to determine the eventual longer term movement beyond the western Caribbean Sea,” cautions Lindner.

National Hurricane Center cone of uncertainty for Beryl shows it becoming a major hurricane by Monday 7/1/24.
Most models predict a path toward the Gulf.
Different combinations of models take Beryl in slightly different directions.

Beryl Intensity Forecasts

Lindner says that “conditions appear unusually favorable for this time of year and location for development.” Regional hurricane models (HWRF, HOMN, HAFSA, and HAFB) all show significant deepening of this system prior to reaching the Windward Islands. Well above-normal Atlantic water temperatures and low upper-level shear support continued development.

“The main question,” says Lindner, “is how quickly can Beryl form an inner core today or tonight and what potential is the upper end limit on intensification through the Islands?”‘

Satellite Photo from 11:20 AM Houston time, 6/29/24. Beryl is in right-hand circle.

Most models predict a 65 knot wind-speed increase in the next 72 hours. That far exceeds what climatology would suggest for this area for this time of year.

This morning, NHC forecasts a 110mph category 2 hurricane hitting the Windward Islands. They cautioned that their estimate might needed to be increased within the next 12-24 hours. But they increased it within six. By its 2 PM update, NHC predicted Beryl would reach major hurricane status before reaching the Windward Islands.

As Beryl moves deeper into the Caribbean Sea, wind sheer and dry air west of the storm could limit further intensification.

Lindner feels that Day 4-5 wind shear forecasts are not always reliable and the weakening trend shown on the right above may be somewhat overdone.

Another Storm Will Cross Gulf and Head into Mexico

A strong tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea has reached the eastern coast of the Yucatan and Belize. See the left hand circle in the satellite photo above.

A large area of deep convection has formed. Land interaction and westerly wind shear will inhibit immediate development. However, there may be a brief window for modest development in the southern Gulf of Mexico Sunday/Monday. Then the storm should move inland over eastern Mexico. Current development odds remain around 50%.

Third Storm has 70% Chance of Formation in Atlantic

NHC indicates that a third storm will likely form in the same area where Beryl is now. See the elongated oval below.

This tropical wave is currently located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It is showing signs of organization. Another tropical depression or storm may form by the middle part of next week as this wave moves westward along a similar track as Beryl. Chances for development over the next several days are 70%.   

Lake Livingston Dam on Failure Watch

With all this activity in the tropics, it is somewhat disconcerting that the Trinity River Authority has placed the Lake Livingston Dam on a “Potential Failure Watch” due to recent heavy rainfall and flooding.

TRA says the dam is in no immediate danger of failing or breaching. They also say that day-to-day operations will continue, but “gate operations will vary based on conditions.” Translation: They’ll be releasing more water faster in the event of more heavy rainfall.

Look out below.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/29/24 and updated at 3PM

2496 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Tree Lane Project Supposed to be Done Today, But Hasn’t Started

6/28/24 – According to Houston Public Works’ website, the Tree Lane Bridge Rehabilitation Project next to Bear Branch Elementary was to have been completed today. But construction hasn’t even started yet.

Completion Scheduled for End of June

The latest update, posted just last Thursday, shows “end of June 2024” as the promised completion date.

Screen capture from 4PM June 28, 2024, last workday of the month.

But as of the end of the day today, equipment hadn’t moved in approximately two months, with the exception of moving an excavator farther back from the creek when erosion crept dangerously close to it in the May floods.

Erosion from May floods threatened the parking spot for this construction equipment.

Originally, Houston Public Works said construction would take 6 months. Now we have just 5 weeks before the start of the next school year.

Hurricane Approaching

Meanwhile, a tropical depression has formed in the Atlantic. And the National Hurricane Center predicts it will enter the Gulf as a hurricane approximately a week from now.

On the current trajectory, Houston would be in the cone.

There’s still a large degree of uncertainty associated with any storm this far out. But this underscores the fact that the Tree Lane Bridge project is far behind schedule and we are likely entering a very active hurricane season.

Development this far east in late June is unusual, according to the NHC. In fact, they say, “There have only been a few storms in history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year.” Some models are already predicting this could become a major hurricane (Cat 3 or 4).

The lack of Tree Lane Bridge Rehabilitation progress will expose the bridge to even more erosion if this storm strikes the Houston area. As you can see, the bridge can’t afford much more.

Erosion under bridge

Reasons for Delays

On June 13, Darryl Burrell, EIT, Graduate Engineer, Capital Projects for Houston Public Works, wrote, “There have been multiple instances of utility relocations.”

He added, “Some have already been completed. Our personnel are coordinating with multiple teams and entities. We are all working to get this issue alleviated in a timely manner.”

Photo 6/13/24. That 12″ black pipe is reportedly a city water line that has been exposed since at least April 2022.

I saw a cable company working at the location on 6/17/24, but nothing since then. That was almost two weeks ago. That swooping line in the foreground remains there today.

Editorial Comment: Enforce Deadlines

I’m not sure who is to blame, but would observe this.

As the City looks for ways to trim its budget, it should look at enforcing deadlines.

I wonder how many times contractors have had to reschedule crews around other contractors that didn’t do their jobs on time. That has to increase costs.

And one last issue. Construction delays exposed this area to even greater erosion. That may force revision of the engineering plan, construction drawings, bids, timetables and more.

Why do it once when you can do it twice? Sorry for the cynicism.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/28/24

2495 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Potential Trouble in the Tropics

6/27/24 5PM –The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted 2024 would become one of the most active hurricane seasons ever in the tropics. We’re not out of June yet. And we’ve already had one tropical storm. Now, another potential system is about to head from the Caribbean into the Gulf. And a third area of concern is barreling westward toward the Caribbean. See below.

Chances of Development

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “Conditions may become slightly better for some organization of (the yellow area) once over the southern Gulf of Mexico.”

The red area shows signs of better organization today. NHC currently gives it an 80% chance of development in the next 7 days, and 60% in the next two.

Potential Tracks for Red Area

More important, some models suggest it could turn into a full blown major hurricane (Cat 3 or Cat 4). And one of the models shows the potential track shooting the gap between Cuba and the Yucatan into the central Gulf.

Intensity Could Reach Cat 4, Unusual This Early in Season

We’re still way too far out to predict with certainty what will happen, but it’s instructive to note some climatology. In the 30 years between 1991 and 2020, NHC says that the average date for the first hurricane was August 11. And the first major hurricane usually doesn’t happen until September 1.

That said, see what the models are forecasting 4 to 5 days out.

Current Satellite View of Two Systems

Models are great. But I’m also a great believer in eyeballs. Here’s what the two systems look like at 4:30 PM CDT from a satellite. Note the developing storms south of Florida and North of the eastern coast of South America.

Better to Be Prepared

As usual, I end such posts with a caution to pray for the best and prepare for the worst. I’ve posted a variety of links on preparedness from trusted sources on my Links Page. Just scroll down.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/27/24 at 5PM

2494 Days since Hurricane Harvey

After 4 Years, No Recommendations from River Basin Master Drainage Plan in Design Yet

After four years, not one of the recommendations from the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Plan is in design yet.

In the summer of 2020, Harris County Flood Control District, the City of Houston, Montgomery County, and the San Jacinto River Authority released a massive study on how to address flooding in the upper San Jacinto River Basin. But four years later, not one of the 16 main recommendations has been constructed. In fact, none are even in design yet, according to one source I talked to for this post.

Cost, political willpower, eminent-domain issues, and jurisdictional boundaries seem to have torpedoed any progress.

Major Recommendations in Plan

The 3,600 page study contained 16 main recommendations.

Here’s where they are.

However, Matt Barrett, PE, the SJRA’s Flood Management Division Director, says, “No construction has started on any of the major project recommendations (detention and channelization projects).” 

Another source familiar with the plan complained that none are even in design yet. That source also cited unfavorable cost benefit ratios.

Expected Benefits of Plan

If built, these projects could make a real difference for people throughout Montgomery County and northern Harris County.

The following table shows how much the water surface elevation could be reduced in a 100-year storm at a number of locations if the recommendations were implemented.

From Page 27 of Executive Summary

Cost Issue

The 2020 study estimated that building all these projects could cost up to $3.3 billion. They would cost more today. We’ve had 20% inflation since then.

The total in today’s dollars could easily approach $4 billion. That’s a pretty major ask for taxpayers.

But the 2018 Harris County Flood Bond (approved before the study) included only $18.75 million dollars for “Funding for Future Partnership Projects Based on Results of Study – for Right-of-Way Acquisition, Design, and Construction of General Drainage Improvements in San Jacinto River Watershed Study.” See Project C-50.

Political Willpower

Funding for the gap will not come from any of the study sponsors.

Harris County Commissioners Court has prioritized “equity” projects in low-to-moderate income areas inside the Beltway. Some have even declared they will never vote for spending money outside of Harris County.

Most of the projects are outside the City of Houston and its extra-territorial jurisdiction.

The San Jacinto River Authority doesn’t have an income stream to fund the improvements.

And most Montgomery County Commissioners don’t see flooding as their most pressing problem.

Understandably, no one has seized the reins for these projects. Even if physically feasible, they don’t seem politically feasible at this point.

Eminent Domain and Jurisdictional Boundaries

Worse, 10 of the 16 projects are large stormwater detention areas that would likely require invoking eminent domain. That’s always politically dicey for politicians. Especially when the major benefits would accrue to downstream residents outside of their precincts – and even outside of their own county.

Better Lake Conroe Management Not Enough

As this multi-million study has been consigned to dusty bookshelves, flood-weary residents have increasingly pinned their hopes on better management of the Lake Conroe dam.

Seasonal lowering of Lake Conroe has morphed into “Active Storm Management,” a compromise between upstream and downstream interests on the San Jacinto West Fork. Instead of lowering the lake for set amounts for set periods of time each year, dam operators are now trying to lower it temporarily on the fly in advance of approaching storms. But that presents its own set of problems.

It also doesn’t affect water funneling in from other watersheds. The Lake Conroe watershed comprises only 13% of the Lake Houston watershed. That means rain falling over 87% of the area upstream from Lake Houston has nothing to slow it down.

Lake Houston Gates Not Enough Either

Farther downstream, the City of Houston has been designing new gates for the Lake Houston Dam. They will help lower floods in the Lake Houston Area somewhat. But they won’t help people upstream. And they have run into one problem after another.

For instance, the City could not find any contractors willing to bid on the recommended alternative – building crest gates on the 70-year old spillway. It was just too risky. So, the City is now redesigning the entire project.

Just three years ago, the project was scheduled for completion this summer. But the timetable has been delayed at least another four years.

Time to Reboot the Master Drainage Plan: But How?

So what can we do to refocus attention and gain momentum behind the projects in the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Plan?

In my opinion, we need to see the state take over execution of the plan. There are just too many conflicting interests at the local level.

We need to make one person/entity responsible for executing the plan.

Bob Rehak

The logical choice would be someone at the Texas Water Development Board. It’s assembling a state flood plan that includes the San Jacinto River Basin.

So how do we make that happen? We need to engage our state leaders.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/26/24

2493 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

“Seasonal” Lake Lowering Out. “Active Storm Management” In.

The San Jacinto River Authority and City of Houston have abandoned their automatic “seasonal” lake lowering policy. The seasonal program lowered Lake Conroe automatically to fixed levels during the rainiest parts of the year (April/May and August/September, i.e., the peak of hurricane season).

They have replaced seasonal lowering with a new program called “active storm management” that gives the City and Lake Conroe dam operators more flexibility to respond to actual weather conditions.

Basically, they can keep water levels up when no storms are expected. But they can lower the lake in advance of major rain…any time of the year…by amounts that will keep the lake level as stable as possible and downstream residents as safe as possible.

It’s a compromise that can be summed up in the words “as needed vs. automatic.”

Below, you can see the exact wording of the new protocols. Below that, you can see my simplified summary/interpretation. I also provide a link to the actual contract between the City and SJRA.

Active Storm Management Protocols for Lake Conroe and Lake Houston – 2024

Spring
  • Beginning April 1 through June 1, the City of Houston may request diversions to lower Lake Conroe from normal pool of 201’ msl to create up to six inches of storage capacity for forecasted storm event inflows (to 200.5’ msl). The decision of when, how, and whether to initiate diversions will be guided by climate conditions, weather patterns, and available water supply.
  • Resume normal recapturing after each storm event that triggered any diversion between April 1 and June 1.
  • In the event a major rainfall is forecasted to impact our region, active storm management protocols of the City of Houston could initiate a diversion to create up to an additional six inches of storage capacity for storm inflows (to 200.0’ msl). It is acknowledged that under extraordinary weather circumstances, additional diversions to create capacity below 200.0’ msl could occur.
Fall
  • Beginning August 1 through October 1, the City of Houston may request diversions to lower Lake Conroe if actual lake levels are at normal pool of 201 msl to create up to six inches of storage capacity for storm inflows (to 200.5’ msl). After Labor Day, storage capacity may be increased an additional six inches (to 200.0’ msl). Diversion volumes requested to reach intended levels will be dependent on the actual lake levels. The decision of when, how, and whether to initiate diversions will be guided by climate conditions, weather patterns, and available water supply.
  • Resume normal recapturing after each storm event that triggered any diversion between August 1 and October 1.
  • If a named storm is predicted to impact our region, active storm management protocols of the City of Houston could initiate a diversion to create up to an additional six inches of storage capacity for storm inflows (to 199.5’ msl). It is acknowledged that under extraordinary weather circumstances, additional diversions to create capacity below 199.5’ msl could occur.
Protocol – Lake Houston
  • Year Round
    • City of Houston will initiate releases to lower Lake Houston prior to major rainfall events.
    • Conservation Pool Elevation is 42.4’ msl.
    • Lake Houston level reduced to 41.4’ msl if a 24-hour rainfall forecast of 3 inches or more is expected. within the Lake Houston watershed.
    • Under extraordinary weather circumstances, Lake Houston level may be reduced below 41.4’.
Duration
  • The Protocols above will extend to the end of 2024 but will be reviewed by the stakeholders in October/November of 2024. During the review, the stakeholders will discuss strategies that extend beyond 2024.
Advocacy and Education
  • All stakeholders will work to support flood mitigation projects and efforts across the upper watershed, including improvement of land use regulations to reduce runoff from new development in counties that contribute flow to Lake Houston.
  • Because public education regarding completed and ongoing downstream mitigation efforts is critical to generating upstream support for continued active storm management at Lake Conroe, all stakeholders agree to educate their constituents regarding: active storm management protocols being implemented at Lake Houston, completed and ongoing sediment removal projects in the San Jacinto River basin and Lake Houston, and continued progress on the Lake Houston spillway modifications.
  • Because of its impact on effective active storm management, all stakeholders will support City of Houston and SJRA efforts to amend the Certificate of Adjudication for Lake Conroe to increase the maximum diversion rate.
  • All stakeholders agree to support efforts to limit further construction of habitable structures around Lake Conroe below elevation 207’ msl.
Important Notes
  • All water released from Lake Conroe as part of active storm management is being accounted for from the City of Houston’s 2/3 share and reported to TCEQ by the City of Houston. Therefore, all final decisions on diversions are ultimately the City’s and must be communicated to the SJRA in writing. This includes defining active storm management protocols.
  • All flood mitigation protocols could be limited due to drought conditions.

Rehak’s Summary

Note the words “MAY REQUEST” in the first sentences under Spring and Fall. Lowering is now on an “as needed” basis, not automatic.

Note also the words “RESUME NORMAL RECAPTURING” in the second bullet points under Spring and Fall. Operators will attempt to return the lake to its normal level after the storm threat has passed. The lake will not automatically be kept lower for the rest of the season.

All stakeholders have agreed to review the policy at the end of this year and modify it as necessary.

All stakeholders have also agreed to support mitigation projects including:

  • Land use regulations that reduce runoff
  • Education of residents re:
    • Active storm management protocols at Lake Houston
    • Construction progress of more Lake Houston gates
    • Sediment removal projects
  • An increase in the maximum pre-release rate for Lake Conroe
  • Limiting future construction around Lake Conroe to a safe level (207 feet above sea level).

The City of Houston must initiate lake lowering IN WRITING.

Water released from Lake Conroe at the City’s request will be reported to the TCEQ.

The City makes all decisions on releases.

Its decisions are final.

The City may redefine “active storm management” protocols, but should consider drought conditions when making decisions.

Decisions to Lower Lake Outside of Spring/Fall Dates

A release during Tropical Storm Alberto in June this year triggered a protest from the Lake Conroe Association because it fell outside the dates indicated above (April/May and August/September).

However, during the April SJRA Board meeting at which Active Storm Management was approved unanimously, the official minutes note that all parties agreed that the City could order the release of water from Lake Conroe at any time – regardless of the season.

For the historical record, here is the actual contract between the City and SJRA re: the operation of Lake Conroe.

For ease of future reference, you can also find the details above on this site’s Lake Lowering page.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/25/24

2492 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Lake Conroe Association Complains About Lowering Lake Conroe … Again

Updated 6/25/24 – After the near miss with Tropical Storm Alberto, Lake Conroe Association (LCA) President Kevin Lacey penned an angry, demanding letter to the City of Houston (CoH) about lowering the lake 5 inches.

Complaints In Lacey Letter

Among other things, the letter complains that:

  • Lowering the lake after June 1 is a “breach” of the “Active Storm Management Agreement”
  • The amount of rainfall in the original prediction did not justify the amount of “excessive” lowering
  • CoH did not stop lowering Lake Conroe when the storm veered to the southwest
  • CoH wasted its water, instead of using it “beneficially”
  • The lake likely won’t be able to recover its normal water levels during summer

Use of the word “breach” by Mr. Lacey seems to imply that his association has legal standing to dispute the actions of the SJRA and CoH. He demands that they account to him for their actions during the storm at a special meeting with LCA.

The Lake Conroe Association has a long history of protesting lake lowering. LCA sounds like a homeowner’s association, but it is not. LCA was originally founded as a nonprofit 50 years ago to combat the growth of Hydrilla (a fast-growing invasive plant species) around the lake.

Since then, LCA claims it has raised a million dollars ($20,000 per year) through donations. Currently it claims it is also fighting for “safe water levels.”

Motive Behind the Fight?

Some believe that insufficiently dredged areas around Lake Conroe motivated this fight. Regular HOAs cannot afford dredging and homeowners have difficulty operating their boats when lake levels are down.

Mr. Lacey seems oblivious to fact that many around the lake see preemptive lowering as a positive thing that helps reduce their flood risk. Anecdotally, I have heard that many homes flooded around Lake Conroe during May although I don’t have an exact count.

May Storm Dramatizes Problem of Forecast Uncertainty

After 7 inches of rain fell north of Lake Conroe in late April, SJRA began releasing water for days. They had the release rate down to 8,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) and were actually decreasing the release rate, when another 11 inches fell in the same location.

Lake Conroe flood gates
Gates at Lake Conroe can release water 15X faster than Lake Houston’s gates. This makes coordinating pre-releases difficult.

Within hours, SJRA escalated the release rate to 72,000 CFS, flooding hundreds of homes downstream, nearly flooding thousands more, breaking sand mine dikes, and sweeping sediment downstream – just as the CoH was about to begin a $34 million dredging program.

Seventy-two thousand CFS was SJRA’s second highest release rate in its history. Only Hurricane Harvey’s 79,000 CFS exceeded that.

Decreasing the release rate just hours before increasing it 9X underscores the difficulty of precisely predicting how much rain will fall where.

But Mr. Lacey didn’t acknowledge that difficulty anywhere in his letter. Nor did he reference the May storm. Or homes around Lake Conroe that flooded. Or that the City of Houston has the right to call for SJRA water year round.

He especially forgot to mention that when Alberto was pushing southwest, the National Hurricane Center predicted that another potential tropical storm could move north toward Houston. That explains the likely reason Houston continued calling for 660 CFS even after Alberto headed for Mexico and the Valley.

Ultimately, the second storm followed Alberto into Mexico yesterday. But had it moved north, there wouldn’t have been time to achieve meaningful lake-level reduction without flooding homes downstream and staying within the bounds of Lake Conroe’s permit from the TCEQ.

Correcting Other Allegations

To correct some other issues in the Lake Conroe Association letter:

  • While releasing 660 CFS per second before and during Alberto, SJRA did not exceed its TCEQ Permit which specifies 700 CFS maximum. If Mr. Lacey supported increasing that, perhaps next time, SJRA could release water closer to storms when the certainty level of forecasts is higher.
  • Breach implies some kind of a contract exists between LCA and CoH. It doesn’t. Rather, SJRA has a series of operational guidelines in place with CoH.
  • CoH owns two-thirds of the water in Lake Conroe. The “agreement” referenced by Lacey isn’t even labeled as an agreement. It’s a series of operating protocols. They let CoH call for water whenever it wants, not just during peak rainy seasons in the Spring and Fall. (More on that tomorrow.)
  • Many would consider preventing the potential flooding of homes a beneficial use of the water released, even if it did ultimately flow into the Gulf of Mexico.
  • We’ve heard LCA claim before that Lake Conroe won’t be able to return to its normal level in summer because of such releases. In 2021, LCA actually filed a lawsuit based on that claim. The judge ultimately dismissed the case with prejudice after SJRA had to increase release rates repeatedly that summer to keep homes and businesses around the lake from flooding.

Previous Exaggeration

In 2018, the Lake Conroe Association also claimed that seasonal lowering would destroy home values around Lake Conroe. A spot check of the Montgomery County Appraisal District site shows that many lakefront homes have actually doubled in value since lake lowering went into effect. I found one that virtually tripled.

Perhaps Lake Conroe residents are more concerned about whether their homes will flood than how far they have to step down into their boats. After all, the National Hurricane Center has predicted the most active hurricane season ever.

For More Information

To read the actual text of documents referenced in this post, follow these links:

The last includes elements of seasonal lowering, but differs in several important ways. It represents a compromise among automatic, season-long lowering and:

  • Construction delays for additional Lake Houston Gates
  • Upstream convenience and downstream risk reduction
  • Drought and water conservation concerns.

It does this by approaching lake lowering on an as-needed basis. It also specifies when the SJRA and City may bypass the protocols. See more tomorrow.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/24/2024

2491 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Study on Flood Inundation Mapping Seeks Focus Group Participants

The Nurture Nature Center, a nonprofit organization in Easton, Pennsylvania, is conducting focus group studies nationwide on National Weather Service hydrologic forecast products for NOAA. Next month, they will conduct a group in the Houston area.

US59 at West Fork during Harvey
Looking S across San Jacinto West Fork toward Humble from over US59 bridge during Harvey.

Purpose of Study

The research team is currently studying new Flood Inundation Mapping Products. The goal: make sure people get the information they need to prepare for possible flooding.

The study will explore the kinds of decisions users will make with new maps. The researchers will use feedback they get to provide recommendations to NWS based on focus group testing about how to:

  • Integrate key information
  • Eliminate confusion
  • Provide clarity.

This is part of a series of focus groups being conducted nationwide. Researchers will conduct this particular group in conjunction with the Houston/Galveston Weather Forecast Office. It will focus on the San Jacinto River Basin.

Focus Group Details

Researchers will hold the San Jacinto focus group:

  • On Tuesday, July 23rd from 6-8 PM
  • At the Jacinto City Branch Library Meeting Room
    921 Akron St
    Houston, TX 77029
  • Refreshments and light snacks provided

Participants will each receive $50.

To qualify, participants must live and/or work in the Houston, TX – San Jacinto River Basin area and be at least 18 years of age.

To Register…

Registration is required and limited to 15 participants.

Please circulate this post to anyone vulnerable to flooding, interested in sharing their experiences, and willing to help improve flood forecast products.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/23/24

2490 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Another Disturbance Following Path of Tropical Storm Alberto

Another disturbance is forming over the southern Gulf of Mexico where Tropical Storm Alberto formed earlier this week. However…

“Few impacts are expected along the upper Texas coast.” 

Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner

Satellite and surface observations indicate that the storm is moving slowly toward the WNW/NW.

“A deep convective band has developed well to the north of the broad surface low while other convective activity remains at a minimum,” said Lindner.

As of 15:00 Zulu time, which equals 10 AM in Houston

“Some additional development of this feature is possible over the next few days as it moves slowly toward the WNW/NW. Eventually it will make landfall along the eastern coast of Mexico,” he said.

50% Chance of Development

The National Hurricane Center currently gives this disturbance a 50% chance of development in the next two days.

As of 12:00 AM CDT on Saturday, June 22, 2024

“Given the broad nature of the surface low, it may take some time for the system to consolidate,” Lindner continued. “And it is equally possible that it runs out of time and makes landfall before developing into a tropical system.”

Possible tracks of storm system

Little Impact Predicted Along Upper Texas Coast

Generally there will be little to no impact of this system along the upper TX coast. Current elevated tides are the result of the subsiding wave action from Alberto and the current full-moon cycle. Elevated tides will continue to subside over the next few days.

“With high pressure building across the Houston area, moisture will remain mostly south of us,” concluded Lindner.

Three weeks into the hurricane season, most of the action has been in the Gulf of Mexico. This is consistent with earlier predictions. Forecasters predicted that the developing La Niña would reduce wind sheer in the Gulf. That allows more storms to build closer to Houston as opposed to the mid-Atlantic.

So check the National Hurricane Center daily. And make sure you’re prepared for a storm. The closer they originate to Texas, the less time we have to prepare for them.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/22/24

2489 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Northpark Expansion Obstacles Finally Being Addressed

6/21/24 – Entergy has removed some – but not all – blockages to the Northpark expansion project related to its equipment. The project is designed to build an all-weather evacuation route for 78,000 Kingwood residents.

Entergy removed several of its poles that blocked expansion of the roadway earlier this week.

The company is also committing to dates for the removal of other poles that remain in the way of construction.

The Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ-10 first notified Entergy that it would have to move its equipment in 2020. On February 6th this year, the City of Houston finally set a firm deadline. It gave Entergy 30 days to move its equipment. That deadline was obviously missed.

Entergy says it has been working diligently to help Northpark expansion move forward. As we move into what is expected to be a very busy hurricane season, here’s where the TIRZ and Entergy say things stand and what I have been able to verify photographically.

Some Poles Already Removed Earlier This Week

Entergy removed several poles that blocked construction progress on Tuesday, June 18. They were located near Dunkin’ Donuts and Public Storage.

Note old pole on ground in front of Public Storage (out of frame to right).

Primoris, an Entergy contractor, took down that and several other poles that day.

More Entergy poles being removed by Primoris crew in front of Dunkin’ Donuts

Two other groups of poles continue to block construction, however. Here’s what Entergy is doing to address those.

Blockage #1: Poles West of Car Wash

The first blockage is a group of three poles immediately west of the Quick Quack Car Wash where new westbound turn lanes will begin. This group of poles still holds a Comcast cable. See below.

Looking W. Three short poles on left between Duncan Donuts and Quick Quack Carwash have yet to be moved.

Comcast has committed to burying this cable next week. Then Primoris can remove the poles for Entergy.

Blockage #2: Poles near Loop 494

The second group also has three poles – at Loop 494 and the Union Pacific railroad tracks. However, these three poles have two separate issues with which Entergy must contend.

  • They supply redundant power to the businesses along Northpark.
  • An Internet provider, Brightspeed, also has a line mounted on two of the three poles. (See #2 and #3 below.)
Entergy Delay Forces Change to Northpark Expansion Plan…Again
Looking W from over Northpark across 494. Three more Entergy power poles blocking Northpark Drive expansion.

To get these three poles out of the way of Northpark expansion, Entergy has three options:

  • Move them north (right in photo above)
  • Bore under the roadway and tracks
  • A combination of the above.

According to Brian Garcia, Entergy’s project manager, his company has chosen a combination of the two approaches. It will move the overhead lines north temporarily while it works out permits and easements with TXDoT and Union Pacific.

Once Entergy has secured permissions needed, it will then bury the lines, a solution that is more reliable. It is also more expensive because two moves are involved rather than one. But it should let construction move forward faster.

Entergy has committed to delivering a plan to temporarily relocate Pole #1 (in the photo above) by end of day today.

Weather permitting, Entergy also plans to actually relocate its wires on Poles #2 and #3 by 6/28/24 – next Friday. Entergy would then top its old poles. That would let BrightSpeed remove its cable. And then Primoris could remove the old poles.

Union Pacific Sets Meeting on Crossing Signals

Meanwhile, Union Pacific (UP) has set a meeting for July 9 to talk about relocating its crossing signals. It’s a firm deadline, according to De Leon, the TIRZ’s project manager for Northpark Expansion.

Unexpected delays by any party in this ballet of corporate behemoths could create a domino effect that could push the Northpark project back into next year. Or even force cancellation.

Blockage #3: Transformer At Exxon

Meanwhile, at the Exxon Station near US59, Entergy also has a transformer that must be moved farther back from the roadway. See red circle below. The distance has to do, in part, with line-of-sight issues for motorists. Its height means that it could block the view of motorists entering or leaving the roadway.

Entergy transformer at US59 (top) and Northpark (right) circled in red.

But working around the transformer presents serious construction problems. The wires leading to/from it are not up to code, according to De Leon.

He says that the City building code calls for underground wiring to be encased in steel. But the wiring in this area is not. That could jeopardize the safety of heavy equipment operators working to expand Northpark in this area.

Garcia disagrees. He says all of their equipment and lines meet or exceed all applicable building codes.

Several weeks ago, a contractor for the TIRZ did some exploratory hydro-excavation as part of its due diligence for the roadway expansion project. The contractor found Entergy wires that were exposed, not encased like De Leon says they should have been.

Wiring near Entergy transformer exposed during exploratory hydro-excavation process.

De Leon shared this photo in the June TIRZ board meeting. He says it creates a major safety issue for construction workers near the transformer. According to him, the workers could be electrocuted if, for instance, the bucket of an excavator accidentally cut one of the wires.

Garcia says Entergy crews will move the transformer. But De Leon and his contractors are concerned about what could happen if they encounter similar wires as they work in the same general area.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/21/2024

2488 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Alberto, First Named Storm of Season, Lashes Mexico, South TX

6/19/24 – Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 just became Tropical Storm Alberto, according to the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 10 AM update. Alberto will reach the coast of northeast Mexico early tomorrow morning.

Texas Impacts from Alberto

Until then, the entire Texas Coast up to San Luis Pass is under a tropical storm warning. Residents can expect heavy rains, coastal flooding and gusty winds through Thursday.

NHC expects Alberto to weaken quickly once it comes ashore early Thursday. The storm is moving at 9 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 40 MPH. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles north of the center.

Peak storm surge will reach 2-4 feet along the upper Texas Coast and Galveston Bay.

Rainfall Still Ratcheting Down

Rainfall predictions continue to ratchet down, however, especially for the Houston area as Alberto is pushed south by higher pressure from the northeast U.S.

Alberto should produce 5 to 10 inches of rainfall across northeast Mexico into South Texas. Maximum totals around 20 inches are possible. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.

NHC will produce more advisories on Alberto at 1 and 4 PM today.

Make Alberto a Learning Experience

If you have kids home from school looking for something to do, this is an excellent chance to teach them about tropical cyclones.

NHC offers dozens of educational resources geared toward students from K-12 all the way up to continuing education for weather professionals. Harness your child’s natural curiosity while storms are in the news.

I found NHC’s course on Hurricane Basics very informative. Before Alberto became Alberto, it had winds strong enough to qualify as a tropical storm, but NHC kept calling it a potential tropical cyclone instead. Do you know the other attributes that define tropical cyclones? Hurricane Basics tells you.

Want to know what it takes to get a tropical cyclone started?

What affects their intensity?

Or how various factors come together to produce more or less rainfall?

NHC describes each of the factors above and provides clear, simple illustrations that make them easy to understand.

This particular presentation also covers:

  • Storm tracks
  • Where hurricanes will most likely form depending on month of the season
  • Tropical distrubances
  • Track forecasting
  • Associated hazards, such as hurricanes
  • Relative risks from wind, rainfall, surge, flash flooding, etc.
  • Categories of storms and types of damage associated with each
  • More, much more.

Trivia: By the way, NHC provides climate data, too. Did you know, for instance, that the first named storm of the season usually occurs on June 20th in the Atlantic Basin. This year, the first named storm occurred on June 19.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/19/24

2486 Days since Hurricane Harvey