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Potential Funding Problem for Taylor Gully Mitigation Project

10/10/24 – Buried within a Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) eight-page status report submitted to Commissioners Court last Tuesday is a potential conflict that could torpedo Taylor Gully conveyance improvements.

Taylor Gully is the lone Kingwood project that HCFCD submitted to the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Texas General Land Office for Community Development Block Grant funding. The list of disaster relief and hazard mitigation projects totals $863 million.

HUD Funds via Texas GLO

The HUD/GLO money focuses on projects stemming from Hurricane Harvey that are designed to mitigate future disasters and flooding.

The money is in two buckets: disaster relief ($322 million) and mitigation ($541 million).

DR vs MIT, Above-the-Line vs Below-

Of the 39 projects listed in the status report, Northeast Harris County has three. But the three actually relate to only one project – Taylor Gully Drainage Improvements in Kingwood.

The main Taylor Gully project falls into the Disaster Mitigation (MIT) category.
Two related stormwater detention basins in Woodridge Village at the head of Taylor Gully fall into the disaster relief (DR) category.

A note on page six of the HCFCD status report explains the relationship between the three items. Basically, Flood Control needs the two detention basins to make the Taylor Gully improvements work within the available space.

Rough layout for new Woodridge basin. — *Green basin was started under an E&R contract then paused after HUD funding application. A second basin would need to be built from scratch somewhere within the area designated as G-503-06-00.* *Taylor Gully is blue line labeled G103-80-03.1.*

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The Taylor Gully project is above the funding line. That means there’s room for it in the budget. But…

Potential Conflict

The two detention basins, which are prerequisites, fall below the funding line. That means there is no budget for them unless another above-the-funding-line project falls out of contention or comes in much lower than expected. (Editorial comment: Good luck with that!)

See the note on page six reprinted below.

Taylor Gully Channel Conveyance Improvements (G103-80-03.1-E002), Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin, Compartment 1 (G503-06-00-E003), and Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin, Compartment 2 (G503-06-00-E004): Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin, Compartment 1 (G503-06-00-E003) and Woodridge Stormwater Detention Basin, Compartment 2 (G503-06-00-E004) were originally below the funding line for CDBG-DR. The original engineering analysis indicated that only Woodbridge Basin Compartment 1 was needed for the Taylor Gully mitigation. As the analysis has progressed, it indicates that Compartment 2 (or a portion of it) may also be needed. Due to other projects potentially reducing in budget from the initial estimates, there may be funding available to include the Woodbridge basin in the Taylor Gully project. [Color added for emphasis.] (Bond ID: F-14; Precinct 3).

It’s like saying, “We’ll recommend the highway expansion. But we may not approve the concrete for it.”

Deadlines Looming

To make matters worse, the two detention basins are in the Disaster Relief category. That had a tight deadline – mid 2026. However, the GLO and HUD say that they are granting extensions on a case-by-case basis. HCFCD says they are asking for one. And these two particular projects seem to be in the pipeline under review.

The Taylor Gully conveyance improvements will cost an estimated $25.5 million. The two Woodridge detention basins together will cost an estimated $30.8 million.

The GLO says it is working closely with Harris County Flood Control to process applications and resolve issues as quickly as they arise.

However, unless HUD and the GLO grant a deadline extension, the two basins would need to be completed and all the billing submitted for payment by roughly mid-2026. That would be ambitious, even if they started today.

Worse, if the issue is “available funding,” they’ll need to finalize 14 other projects first to see how much money they have left over before the detention basins can even start.

Government Work is Never Easy

One thing I have learned since Harvey is that nothing associated with flood mitigation moves quickly. In that regard, Harris County Commissioners approved the first draft of the DR project list on 6/6/23.

In fairness, a large part of the HCFCD update deals with reasons for grant-submission and approval delays. They include:

Changes in procedures related to the Authorization to Use Grant Funds under the National Environmental Policy Act.
Confusion over the Supreme Court’s Sackett v. EPA Ruling having to do with the definition of the Waters of the U.S.
New U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service requirements to protect endangered species.
Recent changes to HUD’s Environmental Review Process.
HUD’s new Federal Flood Risk Management requirements to review wetland impacts for areas beyond one acre.
Severe weather (Derecho, May floods, Beryl)

Let’s hope they can resolve this one quickly. The fate of hundreds of homes and thousands of residents hangs in the balance.

Make sure you ask about this at the HCFCD tax meeting on October 16 before you vote.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/10/24

2599 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Milton To Make Landfall Near Tampa in Hours

10/9/24 at 5 PM – Tropical storm force winds from Hurricane Milton can already be felt in the Tampa Bay Area. The storm is moving toward Tampa at 17 MPH. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall near or just south of the Tampa Bay region this evening.

*Milton’s location at 4:46 PM CDT*. *Eye has become obscured by clouds.* *Milton covers the entire Florida Peninsula.*

According to the National Hurricane Center, it will then move across the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday.

120 MPH Cat 3 Storm at Present

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 MPH with higher gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton could still be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central Florida this evening. And it will remain a hurricane while it moves across central Florida through Thursday. Milton should weaken over the western Atlantic and become extratropical by Thursday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles. Central pressure is 948 mb.

“Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula and to portions of the Florida east coast tonight and early Thursday,” warns NHC.

Add to that the risk of strong tornadoes. Warnings are already up.

9-13 Feet of Surge Predicted Just South of Tampa

Even though meteorologists have tightened their estimates, storm surge is still a significant threat. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location. There, surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

NHC predicts the eye will pass just south of Tampa and has scaled back surge predictions there too 6-9 feet, considerably lower than the 10-15 feet predicted yesterday.

However, slightly south, surge predictions still range from 9-13 feet down to Boca Grande, and 8-12 feet down to Bonita Beach.

NHC says, “There will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location, however, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm.”

“Water levels will rise rapidly as the eye approaches, and strong onshore winds on the backside of the hurricane will also cause a rapid rise in water as the center makes landfall.”

Up to 18 Inches of Rainfall

Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches will be common. Localized totals up to 18 inches are expected across the central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday.

Life-Threatening Flood Potential

This heavy rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.

About the only thing left to do at this point is pray for a speedy recovery. But based on Houston’s experience with Hurricane Harvey, I can promise you that recoveries from storms of this magnitude are anything but speedy.

That’s the main reason why I continue to post “Days since Harvey” with all of my posts. I want people to understand how long recovery and mitigation take.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/09/24 based on information from the NHC and Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner

2598 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Milton Could Be One of Most Destructive Hurricanes On Record

10/8/24 4 PM – As if the pictures of Helene’s aftermath weren’t enough, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that “Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida.”

Milton weakened to a Category 4 overnight during an eye wall replacement cycle and is now regaining strength as it expands into a larger storm. At 4 PM, it had a 10-mile-wide eye and was turning northeast, moving at 9 MPH.

NHC also reported that Milton regained Cat 5 strength and had sustained winds of 165 MPH.

Typically, Cat 5 storms destroy a high percentage of framed homes, with total roof failure and wall collapse. NHC warns that “fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will likely last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”

Ironically, much of the area that Milton will hit was already heavily damaged by Helene two weeks ago. Cleanup from Helene is not yet complete. The high winds could create a blizzard of debris and airborne projectiles.

Authorities are urging residents in evacuation zones to get out today as there may not be enough time if they wait until tomorrow.

Highly Populated Area in Crosshairs

The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) forecast track currently puts the Tampa Bay Area in the crosshairs with landfall tomorrow.

However, NHC cautions that, this far in advance, their forecasts typically contain 60-70 miles of error.

The outer winds could reach the Florida coast tomorrow. And the hurricane should make landfall early Thursday, crossing the Florida Peninsula, emerging into the Atlantic Ocean on Friday.

NHC says that preparations to protect life and property, and to be ready for long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight. By tomorrow, conditions will deteriorate and it may not be safe to work outside.

Wind Field, Storm Surge Will Affect Much of Florida

NHC also says that “Milton’s wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone.”

At 1 PM, hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 140 miles.

Storm surge in the Tampa area could reach 15 feet above dry ground. Surge warnings affect the entire western coast of Florida, the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas. Note below that NHC has also posted surge warnings for most of Florida’s eastern coast up through Georgia and South Carolina.

Heavy Rains and Flooding

NHC predicts 5 to 12 inches of rainfall, with localized totals up to 18 inches, across central to northern Florida through Thursday.

This rainfall will bring the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with
moderate to major river flooding, according to NHC.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 3:30 PM, 10/8/24

2597 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 13 since Helene

Milton Already a Category 5

10/7/24, 1 PM Update – Since posting the story below at 10 AM, Milton intensified explosively another 20 MPH and is now a category 5 hurricane with 175 MPH sustained winds and higher gusts. So, I have updated some of the statistics in the post.

Overnight, Hurricane Milton morphed from a Category 1 storm to near Category 5. This morning, Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Milton’s maximum sustained winds have already increased to 155 MPH…with higher gusts.

Category 5 Storm at 1 PM Update

155 MPH made Milton a high-end Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale – just 2 MPH below the Category 5 designation. But then it exploded.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says that Milton is now a Category 5 hurricane. And it has nothing but light shear and very warm waters between it and the Florida coast.

According to NHC, in a Category 5 storm “Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”

If Milton were a tornado, its 175 MPH winds would make it an F3 on the Fujita scale, capable of blowing apart well constructed houses, overturning trains and uprooting forests. In contrast, Hurricane Helene was a Cat 4 storm with 140 MPH.

Current Conditions and Forecast

Milton should also become a much larger hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico once it completes an eyeball replacement cycle.

At this hour, hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 911 mb.

As Milton nears the Florida coast, it should weaken some as it encounters drier air and wind shear. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland.

Milton is moving toward the east-southeast near 9 mph MPH. An eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight. Then it should turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.

On that track, Milton will move near the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.

The northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will likely experience life-threatening storm surge with damaging waves today. The same threats should reach Florida late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.

Threats

STORM SURGE:

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL…8-12 ft
Tampa Bay…8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL…5-10 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL…5-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor…5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL…4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL…3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location. There, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphics available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

For an easy way to find the elevation of your home or business, see https://reduceflooding.com/2020/08/01/easy-way-to-find-the-elevation-of-a-home-and-the-slopes-around-it/.

RAINFALL:

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night.

This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and Flash Flood Risk
graphics at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND:

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin early this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning
tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday.

SURF:

Swells generated by the system are expected to continue to affect much of the whole Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Meanwhile…Advancing Drought Back in Texas

After an abnormally wet spring and summer, we’ve had very little rain since Labor Day. As a result, the U.S. Drought Monitor now classifies the Houston area as Abnormally Dry.

Milton will miss Texas. But Texas sure could use some of its rain. When it comes to rainfall, sometimes Texas feels like “beast or famine.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/7/24 at 11:30 AM

2596 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Milton Now a Rapidly Intensifying Hurricane, NHC Says It May Go To Cat 5

10/6/24 at 5PM – Yesterday morning, Milton wasn’t even a tropical depression. This morning, Milton was a tropical storm packing winds of about 60 MPH. By noon, Milton became a hurricane. By the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 4 PM update, winds were at 85 MPH with higher gusts and “rapidly intensifying.”

NHC predicts Milton will become a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher with minimum sustained winds of 111 MPH) on Monday. That’s because it will track through warm, deep water in an area with low wind shear.

Current Conditions

At the 4PM update, hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 80 miles. Estimated central pressure was 983 mb.

Milton was tracking toward the east at 7 MPH on a track to strike the center of Florida’s west coast. It does not pose a threat to Texas. However, the Associated Press reports that some communities on Florida’s west coast are already ordering mandatory evacuations.

Forecast to Become Cat 4 or 5

According to NHC, some models are predicting Milton could become a Cat 4 (130 to 156 MPH) or Cat 5 (157 MPH or higher) in a day or two. NHC admits its estimates “still could be too low.”

Large and “Life Threatening”

NHC also predicts Milton will be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area – a scenario similar to Helene just days ago.

“There is increasing confidence,” they say, “that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of Florida’s west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials.”

Tropical storm force winds should arrive in Florida by Tuesday evening.

Key Messages

If you have friends, relatives, business or travel plans in Florida, understand that:

Milton will be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula midweek. It’s still too early to predict the exact track and intensity.
There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday. Storm-Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued tonight or early Monday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast.
Heavy rainfall will impact Florida through Monday well ahead of Milton. More heavy rainfall directly related to Milton will hit Florida Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding. It will also have the potential for moderate to MAJOR river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

Other Hazards

NHC also warns of:

STORM SURGE: Water will rise as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as the storm tracks east. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Monday afternoon.
SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two. They will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions.

Milton will make the third major hurricane in two weeks. It was only 12 days ago that Helene raked the west coast of Florida. Reportedly, many people in affected areas have not even returned home yet.

Sufficiency of Wind-Scale as Predictor of Damage

The New York Times ran an interesting article this morning titled “The Problem with the Hurricane Category Rating.” The thrust of it was that the rating system looks only at wind, but most of the damage is done by water. And NHC says 55% of all deaths are due to flooding during and after a hurricane.

The article quotes a number of government officials, professionals and academics working on ways to fill the gaps.

That will be the subject of a future post.

In the meantime, your best bet is to bookmark the NHC site and visit it daily during hurricane season. When a hurricane threatens the mainland, NHC updates information every few hours.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/6/24

2595 Days since Hurricane Harvey and 12 days since Helene

Tropical Storm Milton Forms in Gulf; Expected to Become Major Hurricane

10/5/24 – Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the Bay of Campeche. Within hours this morning, the National Hurricane Center upgraded an area of low pressure to a tropical depression and then again to a tropical storm.

At this time, NHC predicts it will move toward the west coast of Florida and strengthen to or near MAJOR hurricane strength.

Milton currently does not affect the upper Texas coast, nor is it expected to, except for some welcome cloudiness.

*Graphic from 10 AM CDT today BEFORE depression strengthened into TS Milton.* *NHC will update its graphics at 4 PM CDT.*

Here’s what the storm looked like from a satellite: slight rotation at the left and the beginning of banding.

Forecast

At 12:25 PM CDT, NHC said satellite data indicated that the depression had strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

The system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or so. After that, a trough moving
southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a
slightly faster forward speed.

On the current track, Milton will cross the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Models agree on the track, but not the forward speed, so timing could vary. NHC reminds residents not to focus on the exact track because the average 4-day track error is about 150 miles.

Milton is within a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. With those conditions, NHC expects rapid strengthening over the next few days. The rate of strengthening should increase after an inner core forms in the next 12 to 24 hours. NHC forecasts rapid intensification after 36 hours.

The official forecast shows the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Models are in good consensus on this point. But some suggest Milton will grow even stronger.

Regardless, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast
of the Florida Peninsula next week.

Key Messages

If you have friends, relatives, or travel plans in the affected area, remember these key points.

Milton will quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week.
There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials. Check the NHC site regularly for updates.
Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton. Expect heavy rainfall more directly related to the system by later Tuesday through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

Major Hurricane Count So Far this Season

In an average hurricane season, the Atlantic basin normally sees three major hurricanes. And so far, we’ve had three.

Beryl – 160 MPH
Helene – 140 MPH
Kirk – 120 MPH

But usually, we don’t get the third until the end of October – October 28th to be exact. Four at the beginning of October is slightly unusual. And we still have almost two months left in this season.

Maybe this will be an extreme season after all.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/5/24

2594 Days since Hurricane Harvey

More Northpark Concrete Poured Today; Expansion Update

10/04/24 – At 3 AM this morning, contractors narrowed outbound traffic down to one lane to begin pouring more Northpark concrete west of the entrance to Kings Mill.

It wasn’t the first pour in the two-mile-long project designed to create an all-weather evacuation route from Kingwood. And it won’t be the last. But together with other improvements, one can finally start to see the finished project taking shape.

The pour continued until early afternoon. Elsewhere along Northpark, one could see other workers installing asphalt underlayment for future concrete pours and working on lateral drainage where it ties into culverts down the center of the road.

Next Steps

Contractors are also getting ready to bore under the UnionPacific Railroad Tracks, Loop 494 and Northpark itself. The bore(s) will connect via a series of junction boxes to “Ditch One” behind Public Storage and Dunkin’ Donuts.

From there, the ditch will carry excess stormwater to Ben’s Branch and the Kingwood Diversion Ditch.

Pictures Taken 10/4/24

I took the following pictures of more Northpark concrete being poured around 10 AM this morning.

*Grayish areas in center show partially dried and freshly poured concrete from this morning.*

*New concrete now extends west to QuickQuack Car Wash from Kings Mill entrance in both directions.*

*Looking E toward Russell Palmer. Another concrete truck pulls up to unload as men spread and smooth previous loads.*

*Looking W. Fresh asphalt extending west from Russell Palmer will become the base for the next rounds of concrete.*

Plans also call for widening 494. It too will become three lanes in each direction. See below.

*Looking W toward entry ponds and US59. Note the road bed prep next to the Shell Station and Loop 494.*

More Northpark concrete should be poured next Friday – 10/11/24. Again, it will happen between approximately 3 AM and 1 PM and should involve the closure of at least one lane.

Also of note: on the last weekend of October, there will be a full closure of Northpark at the Russel Palmer intersection to place paving across the intersection. This will begin on Friday and completely close the intersection until Monday morning 5AM. Detours will be in place for Russel Palmer traffic.

For More Information

Consult the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority project pages including a new 3-week lookahead schedule posted today.

For a history of the project and its goals, see these ReduceFlooding posts:

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/4/24

2593 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Save the Date: HCFCD Tax Meeting Scheduled for Kingwood on Oct. 16

10/3/24 – For those who missed the meeting in Atascocita earlier this week, Commissioner Tom Ramsey, PE, has scheduled another meeting to explain the thinking behind Harris County Flood Control District’s Proposition A on the November ballot. The tax meeting will be on October 16 between 6:00 PM and 7:30 PM.

The venue will be the Kingwood Community Center, 4102 Rustic Woods Drive, Kingwood, TX 77345. See poster below.

Why Tax Meeting is Important

Since Hurricane Harvey, the specter of flooding has cast a cloud over Kingwood’s future. Despite Kingwood residents:

Experiencing the highest flooding in the county
Being promised the worst flooding would be addressed first
Supporting the 2018 flood bond in record levels
Receiving virtually no HCFCD capital-improvement construction funds since the District’s inception…

…we haven’t yet gotten much help to reduce flooding from Harris County.

Flooding Vs. Funding

These two charts tell the story.

$ by WS Since Harvey — *San Jacinto Watershed ranks 13th out of 23 watersheds despite being the county’s largest.*

Shortly after the 2018 flood bond passed, Democratic commissioners changed the “worst first” deal.

Then the same thing happened with the 2022 bond. The lone Republican precinct (which includes Kingwood) was promised a minimum of $220 million by Democratic commissioners. Then they changed the deal after the election. Again. And shortchanged the lone Republican precinct by almost $50 million.

Will It Happen Again?

Go to the meeting and ask some tough questions.

I have mixed emotions about HCFCD Proposition A.

On one hand, it’s true that:

Flood Control maintenance budgets have remained flat for many years
We’re constantly adding to inventory that needs maintenance
Aging assets require more maintenance
Years ago, Commissioners looted HCFCD funds for the Hospital District
HCFCD could do a better job with more maintenance dollars.

On the other hand, it’s also true that:

The amount of the increase is 63%.
The publicity is all about maintenance. But the ballot language includes operations.
The proposition does not include any commitments about when, where or on what the money will be spent.
There’s nothing to preclude another switcheroo.
Since announcing the completion of Project Brays in May 2022, HCFCD has spent 2.5X more money on Brays Bayou than it has on the entire San Jacinto River Watershed. That’s through the end of 2Q2024 ($26.5 million vs. $10.5 million).

By the way, Democratic Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis lives in the Brays Bayou Watershed.

Commissioner Ramsey is a fair and honest man. He fights hard for us in every Commissioner’s Court meeting. He’s just outnumbered.

I will see you at the tax meeting. Come with an open mind.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/3/24

2592 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Northpark Reduced to One Outbound Lane Friday Morning

10/2/24 – The Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority/TIRZ 10 has announced that it will reduce Northpark Drive outbound traffic to one lane Friday (10/4/24) from about 3AM to 1PM. Contractors will be pouring concrete next to existing lanes. Crews need part of one lane for both construction work and their safety.

Men will spread and smooth new concrete from the old roadway as they previously did in eastbound lanes two weeks ago.

The work will take place between Loop 494 and Russell Palmer Road. Currently crews are preparing the base with asphalt. They should be ready to create a rebar grid on all of part of the asphalt areas beginning tomorrow.

Another concrete pour is scheduled for the following Friday, 10/11/24, weather permitting.

Pictures of Progress

Below are pictures of the project’s progress since my last post in mid-September.

*Looking ESE toward Russell Palmer intersection in upper left. Note new asphalt between inbound and outbound lanes.*

*Looking WSW. Note: concrete for part of one westbound lane has already been poured to roughly Italiano’s.*

*Looking at previous pours and area where new pour will extend past Kings Mill Entrance.*

*Looking W.* *Area in front of Kings Mill entrance has already been completed on south side. Workers are removing forms. Forms have already been installed over asphalt on north side, but no rebar yet.*

*Looking W toward 59 in background. More drainage work is underway on both north and south sides of Norpark.*

*Looking W toward Russell Palmer from in front of Calvary Church* *at new blacktop.*

Looking W at workers laying asphalt on both north and south sides of median over the drainage culverts.

Remember: the road will widen inward, not outward except near the bridge.

Visible Progress Accelerating

Contractors have completed most, but not all, of the underground drainage work at this point. They still have to:

Complete drainage from Loop 494 to US59
Build surface lanes that will parallel the new bridge over Loop 494.
Tunnel under the railroad tracks to install drainage that will convey stormwater from entry ponds to “Ditch One” behind the businesses that line the north side of Northpark.
Connect all the pieces of the drainage system.

But the lion’s share of underground work – the most difficult part of road construction – has finished.

Now contractors are focused on pavement that people can actually see. And it’s moving along rapidly thanks to cooperative weather.

The project paving plan and the Lake Houston Redevelopment Authority website indicate they will attempt to complete a 1680 stretch of westbound lane on Friday. Additional segments will follow.

Before then, though, contractors are returning dirt to the site that had been excavated and stored temporarily during installation of the culverts. They will then prepare the raised areas for future concrete pours by installing a base of asphalt and a grid of rebar.

Here’s a schedule posted yesterday for the next three weeks.

Vision

The long-term vision for the thoroughfare is to create an all-weather access road that will facilitate both evacuation and growth. The six lanes will have the width of freeway lanes. A bridge will carry those six lanes of traffic over Loop 494. And four additional surface turn lanes will be built near the bridge. They will let traffic turn left and right from each of the four directions.

The extra runoff will be stored in stormwater retention basins that bracket the expansion project at 59.

For More Information

The posts below contain a history of the project.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/2/24

2591 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Combined Harris County Tax Increases 4-5x Greater than Inflation

10/1/24 – Harris County is proposing tax increases four times greater than the rate of inflation in the U.S. The combined tax increase in the last two years is almost 30% while the rate of inflation in the US for 2023 and 2024 (estimated) is 7%. When looking strictly at Houston, inflation is slightly lower – about 6%.

The tax increases proposed by the Democrat-controlled Commissioners Court will fall most heavily on the low-to-middle income homeowners who can least afford them. And it’s unclear whether more affluent homeowners will actually see any benefit from them.

How Did We Get to 30%?

Bill King published an article today detailing the components of the 30% tax increase he computed for 2023 and 2024 combined. King added increases in tax rates and appraised values to compute total tax increases.

Said King, “Officials like to talk about tax rates but ignore appraised values, which for many years have been steadily moving higher. This allows elected officials to claim that they are holding taxes steady or, in this case, mislead taxpayers that an increase is not as dramatic as it actually is.”

According to King, Harris County Appraisal District notified Commissioners Court in advance of setting the new tax rates that appraised values would increase 9.3% in 2023 and 4.48% in 2024.

King multiplied the higher tax rates for various county departments times the appraisal-value increases both last year and this. The calculations included the County budget plus three other special entities: the Hospital District, Port Authority and Flood Control District. Flood Control wants a 64.79% increase for operations and maintenance this year alone.

King meticulously documents his calculations and sources.

“When added together, the taxes for the average homeowner will increase in just two years by 29.5% ($1062 → $1,379).“
Bill King

That’s roughly 4 times the rate of U.S. inflation (7%) for 2 years and 5 times the rate of inflation in Houston (6%).

Said King, “The total levy for all four entities has gone from slightly under $3.1 billion in 2022 to nearly $4 billion for this year, a staggering 28.7% increase in the overall tax burden from the County in just two years.” And that doesn’t even include the money the county has siphoned from the Toll Road Authority.

King, who also studies population trends, warned that, “In the last decade, Harris County’s net domestic migration has been a negative 200,000. I suspect these massive tax increases will send more running for the exits.”

Flood-Control Operations and Maintenance

On 9/7/2024, I posted an article about deferred flood-control maintenance in Harris County. This was the basis for the proposed flood-control tax increase.

Key points:

We have a huge amount of drainage infrastructure requiring regular maintenance.
Much of the infrastructure is nearing the end of its useful life (when it costs more to maintain).
And every year, we add more and more infrastructure requiring more maintenance.
But investment in maintenance has been flat over time (see graph below).
Maintenance investment has lagged behind capital improvement spending by as much as 9 to 1.

Unfortunately, even though this is being pitched as a maintenance tax, ballot text doesn’t limit spending to maintenance. It’s for OPERATIONS and maintenance.

Harris County Flood Control District Proposition A says only, “APPROVING THE AD VALOREM TAX RATE OF $0.04897 PER $100 VALUATION IN HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT FOR THE CURRENT YEAR, A RATE THAT IS $0.01581 HIGHER PER $100 VALUATION THAN THE VOTER APPROVAL TAX RATE OF HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT, FOR THE PURPOSE OF OPERATING AND MAINTAINING THE DISTRICT’S FLOOD RISK REDUCTION INFRASTRUCTURE. LAST YEAR, THE AD VALOREM TAX RATE IN HARRIS COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT WAS $0.03105 PER $100 VALUATION.”

Keep in mind that the 57% increase between $0.04897 and $0.03105 will be applied to higher appraised values bringing the total increase up to 64.79% increase calculated by King.

But just as troubling is the inclusion of operations and the absence of any detail about how, when, where or on what the money will be spent.

This has all the earmarks of a slush fund, in my opinion.

Harris County’s Commissioners have seen fit to move money around before and load up staff with patronage workers. Will they do it again?

Will Democrats use the money to maintain long-neglected ditches in Precinct 3, which reportedly has the highest number of maintenance requests in the county? Or, as with the flood bond, will they spend the money in their constituents’ neighborhoods?

Will they ignore the minimums they guaranteed to Precinct 3, as they did with the 2022 bond?

So many questions!

HCFCD is hosting a series of meetings around the county to “educate” voters about the so-called maintenance tax increase.

Date	Time	Venue	Address / Link
Mon, 9/30	6-8 p.m.	Pine Forest Elementary School	19702 West Lake Houston Parkway Humble 77346
Wed, 10/2	6-8 p.m.	Richard & Meg Weekley Community Center	8440 Greenhouse Road Cypress 77433
Thu, 10/3	6-8 p.m.	Martin L. Flukinger Community Center	16003 Lorenzo Channelview 77530
Sat, 10/5	10 a.m.-12 p.m.	Acres Homes Multi-Service Center	6719 W. Montgomery Road Houston 77091
Wed, 10/9	6-8 p.m.	George H. W. Bush Community Center	6827 Cypresswood Drive Spring 77379
Thu, 10/10	6-8 p.m.	Bayland Community Center	6400 Bissonnet Street Houston 77074
Mon, 10/14	6-8 p.m.	El Franco Lee Community Center	9500 Hall Road Houston 77089
Wed, 10/16	12-1 p.m.	Virtual	https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82523887264
Thu, 10/17	6:30-7:30 p.m.	Virtual	https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87924086093
Sat, 10/19	10 a.m.-12 p.m.	Hardy Community Center	11901 W. Hardy Road Houston 77076

Early voting begins on October 21. Make sure you get your questions answered before then.

Fool Me Twice?

I ended my 9/7/24 post with the following. I said that I could not support the HCFCD request if:

Maintenance is delayed here longer than anywhere else.
Social factors, not flood risk, determine the distribution of dollars.
County leaders try to redefine the commonly accepted, dictionary meanings of terms like “equity” or “worst.”

Now that I’ve seen the ballot language, I see none of those guarantees.

As the old saying goes, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”

Given the language in HCFCD Prop A, I fear the Lake Houston Area will get screwed again, exactly like we did with the 2018 and 2022 Bonds.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/1/2024

2590 Days since Hurricane Harvey