June 5, 2024 – The Triple PG sand mine trial, originally scheduled for 2020, has been rescheduled yet again for March 2025 – a five year delay and counting.
A new schedule shows the Texas Attorney General lawsuit against the Triple PG sand mine in Porter may go to a jury on March 24, 2025. Originally, the case was set for trial on June 22, 2020.
But a corporate shell game by the defendant created a series of delays while the AG tried to figure out who was on first.
Then they took two years off for COVID. Finally the judge scheduled a conference call to jumpstart the case in 2022.
Original Complaint
The Texas Attorney General (AG) sued the Triple PG sand mine in Porter on behalf of the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality in 2019. Two breaches in the mine’s dikes were allowing industrial wastewater to flush into White Oak and Caney Creeks, then into the headwaters of Lake Houston. The lake supplies drinking water for two million people.
But not much has happened since then. And the Triple PG sand mine trial just got postponed. Again. Without explanation.
New Scheduling Order
See the second amended agreed scheduling order in the Triple PG sand mine trial. Five years of delays on a case originally scheduled to go to trial in one year!
The Attorney General’s office did not respond to a request for explanation or comment.
Discovery is now supposed to end on December 20, 2024. And a jury trial will begin “on or after March 24, 2025.” Uh, oh! I don’t like that “or after” part.
While Everyone Delayed…
Along the way, those daredevils at the Triple PG have:
Those bullet points just scratch the surface. I’ve created more than 60 posts that feature the Triple PG mine.
All Charges Denied
Prabakar Guniganti, the cardiologist from Nacogdoches owns the mine through one of his shell companies. The Montgomery County Appraisal District shows that the Guniganti Children’s Trust Fund owns it now. Guniganti has denied all charges by the TCEQ and Attorney General.
Pipeline that wasn’t exposed, December 6, 2019Wastewaterat Triple PG mine, July 27, 2022.Guniganti has an ag/timber tax exemption on this gem.Trees killed by process wastewater on neighboring property, June 6, 2022Triple PG wastewater flowing unobstructed into Caney Creekand Lake Houston,September 2019
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/5/24
2472 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
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6/4/24 – Rainfall in the upper part of the San Jacinto River (SJR) Basin during early May storms rivaled Hurricane Harvey totals there. And if you consider year-to-date rainfall (YTD) totals, the amount above normal equals two Harveys in places!
The comparisons with Harvey help put into perspective some extraordinary rainfall in a relatively small geographic area that affects a much larger area.
The comparisons help explain why many people in the Lake Houston Area felt the May flood was far out of proportion to the amount of rainfall received. The most extreme rains did not fall on downstream residents’ heads. For downstream residents, the rains fell unseen – 50 miles north.
Let’s look at data for Huntsville first. Even though the City itself technically sits just outside the San Jacinto River Basin, rainfall south and west of the City entered both the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto.
Harvey Week vs Week Around May Storm
During Hurricane Harvey week in 2017, the SJRA gage southwest of Huntsville received 20.46 inches of rain.
Area near Huntsville received 20.46 inches during Harvey week in 2017.
During the late April/early May storm of 2024, the same gage received just a little less – 18.4 inches.
Huntsville total for week starting April 28, 2024, fell about two inches short of Harvey.
This area got almost as much rain in one week this May as it did during Harvey. Now let’s look at year to date numbers.
Year-to-Date Totals Vs. Harvey
The National Weather Service maintains another gage in Huntsville which accounts for a slightly different total. But I’m using it for the YTD comparison because of the powerful graph. It illustrates how much rain the area recently received compared to normal. (We already know the Harvey total from the first bar graph above.)
From the brown line above, we can see that area normally gets 20 inches of rain through the end of May. This year it got 58.97 inches, almost triple the annual average at that point in the year.
The amount above normal (38.97 inches) is almost twice what the Huntsville area received during Harvey (20.46 inches)!
National Weather Service Data
So far this year, the upper river basin has received almost three Harveys worth of rain, or two above the normal YTD rainfall…for that latitude.
I should note here, that inland areas usually receive less rain than coastal areas during hurricanes. So if you’re saying, “Wait a minute! We received more than 20 inches of rain during Harvey,” you’re right. You also probably live south of Huntsville.
How to Compare Totals at Other Gages
Want to see what happened at a gage near you? HCFCD’s Flood Warning System lets you enter any date range using the historical feature. Just click on the “More Info” button associated with any gage. Or do it for the whole river basin to see the distribution of totals.
YTDrainfall distribution across upper SJR basin.
To quickly compare the distribution during Harvey, just change the dates to 8/25/17 and 8/29/17. It’s fun to explore. And it makes a fun learning experience for your kids. Teach them how to become “data detectives.” It could turn them into homeroom heroes.
Alternatively, you can compare Harris County gages during Harvey by consulting the tables at the end of HCFCD’s final Harvey report. It contains peak rainfall totals for all the gages above for time periods ranging from five minutes to four days.
There’s a point to all this data. We can draw several conclusions and recommendations from it:
Extreme rainfall in the northern tier of the river basin contributed to the flooding that many experienced 50 miles south.
Rainfall coming from the west and east was less intense and likely accounted for less damage downstream.
Heavy rains can fall outside of hurricane season. In fact, spring storms can exceed hurricane rainfall totals and rival hurricane intensity.
We need regional flood control. The people near Huntsville were not prepared for this event. Neither were people to the south protected.
Hurricane Harvey wasn’t a once-in-a-1,000 year rainfall. Pretending it was will jeopardize public safety. We need better building codes and drainage regulations in areas that haven’t already been updated since Harvey.
We also need updated flood maps that show current risk to help protect homebuyers. New floodplain surveys were conducted after Hurricane Harvey. But FEMA hasn’t yet released new risk maps based on those surveys. Many fast-growing areas in the region still base development decisions on data from the 1980s. That puts homebuyers at risk.
Flood Risk: A Shifting Target
Even as FEMA finalizes new flood-risk maps, understand that Mother Nature, sand mines, and insufficiently mitigated upstream developments are constantly changing the landscape through erosion and deposition.
The resulting blockages and reduction in conveyance may now contribute to increased flooding on smaller rains. Consider River Grove Park and the Kingwood Diversion Ditch. Both are now blocked by sand from upstream.
Kingwood Diversion Ditch where it passes through River Grove Park.Photo from 5/26.
It’s not as bad as it was after Harvey…yet. But up to five feet of sand was deposited in this area during the recent flood. So give it a few more floods.
As the City of Houston readies a $34 million dollar dredging program (that doesn’t even include River Grove), look what’s coming downstream to us.
Confluence of West Fork and Spring Creek near US59 bridge. West Fork, on right.
The West Fork snakes through 20 square miles of sand mines between US59 and I-45. And due to pit capture, the West Fork currently runs through a mile-long sand pit.
That raises one final recommendation: I wish the City could use its influence in Washington and Austin to have the EPA and TCEQ eliminate these blatant abuses.
In the meantime, the Kingwood Service Association will debate its own dredging program and the future of River Grove this Thursday night. To attend the online meeting, contact the KSA office at 281-358-5192 for a Zoom link.
Posted by Bob Rehak on June 4, 2024
2471 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
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Hurricane season has started. For those new to the Gulf Coast and younger family members, here’s where to find authoritative hurricane information. Many of these sites are updated several times a day. They contain information that can help keep you and your family alive when severe weather threatens. So please share.
Most if not all forecasting agencies predict an above-average to well-above-average number of tropical storms and hurricanes for 2024. Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner offers these tips for staying alert and ready. Here’s how to keep your eye on the tropics and factors that contribute to hurricanes.
National Hurricane Center
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) offers the most up-to-date tropical storm and hurricane information. During the season, NHC updates its outlooks several times per day. They give you 2- and 7-day outlooks with the probability of tropical system formation and the most likely tracks for storms. The familiar cone graphics that show possible storm tracks will change this year to include watches, warnings, and impact areas, which can extend well outside of the cone.
Lindner reminds us that seasonal forecasts do not include storm tracks and landfalls. Steering currents in the atmosphere that guide storm tracks change from day to day and week to week. So don’t focus on the “numbers.” Instead prepare every year!
Contributing Factors
Several factors continue to support a lot of activity this year. They include:
Sea Surface Temperatures
The Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico continue to have well-above-normal sea surface temperatures. Recent high pressure systems have warmed the Gulf to near record levels for this time of year. With that said Gulf water temperatures can quickly change up and down. Overall, Atlantic basin water temperatures continue to run closer to middle summer than early June. Additionally, the Atlantic Ocean has a classic look to the above average waters that in the past have resulted in above average tropical activity. Check out seasonal anomalies (deviation from normal) at Current Operational SST Anomaly Charts – OSPO (noaa.gov).
Sea Surface Temperature anomalies as of 6/2/24.
El Niño/La Niña
El Niño (warm water in the Pacific from south America to south of Hawaii) continues to quickly fade. Cool water is starting to replace it. The Pacific will transition into La Nina toward mid- to late summer.
This tends to support Atlantic basin tropical development…especially in the Caribbean Sea. La Nina conditions help to reduce wind shear and create conditions more favorable for tropical storms and hurricane to not only develop but intensify. This NOAA presentation covers the transition and is dated 6/3/24.
Global long range models continue to show an active and wet Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the June-September time period. They forecast much-above-average rainfall in the SW/W Caribbean Sea. This signal in 2020 coincided with several tropical storms and hurricanes moving from the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico.
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
ECMWF predicts below-average, sea-level pressures throughout portions of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea into at least the southern Gulf of Mexico. Lower pressures make it easier for tropical systems to form. See ECMWF | Charts.
Recent guidance from ECWMF and Colorado State University indicates enhanced potential for development in the Caribbean. Watch this in the upcoming season.
Storms that develop in the Caribbean tend to impact land areas more than storms that form off the coast of Africa. Storms that form off Africa tend to have at least some opportunity to turn northward over the open Atlantic Ocean prior to reaching the land areas in the western basin.
Local
As always…now is the time to prepare. Have plans of action in place should a tropical storm or hurricane approach the Texas coast this season. It all starts with accurate and timely hurricane information.
Should a tropical system threaten the Texas coast detailed impacts and forecasts can be found at the local National Weather Service Office webpage Houston/Galveston, TX (weather.gov).
The Links Page of ReduceFlooding contains links to these websites and dozens of others related to weather, preparedness, floodplains and releases from local lakes.
Please pass this information along to newcomers to the area and your family members.
Posted on 6/3/24 by Bob Rehak based on information from Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist
2470 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Harvey-Peak-Intensity.jpg?fit=1500%2C843&ssl=18431500adminadmin2024-06-03 19:53:152024-06-03 19:53:16Where to Find Hurricane Information
Several years ago, Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) made a giant leap forward with real-time inundation mapping. You could log onto the Harris County Flood Warning System, click on “inundation map,” zoom into your neighborhood, and see how close floodwater was getting in “near real time.”
It was a radical advance over earlier system. But now we need another radical advance – predictive inundation mapping.
No one, as far as I can see, offers such a service. The National Weather Service predicts how high water will get at gages, but not between them where people live.
How Close Will the Floodwater Get…At My Location?
Buyers today have much more information at their fingertips than decades ago, but no one puts it all together.
One of the most useful websites during a flood is the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. There, you can see how fast water is rising, where it will peak, when it will fall, and a hydrologic history of the event. (See layout below.)
From June 2 at 1:41PM for West Fork San Jacinto at US59
This is a huge advance over everything before it. But unfortunately, it only predicts flood heights at gages. Most people don’t know how their distance from a gage, elevation changes, and local topography will affect the peak at their home or business. Especially if they are new to a neighborhood, like the woman below.
Kingwood resident who moved here in January from a desert, then promptly flooded in May.
The mapping feature is a great enhancement compared to the NWS site in some ways. It shows the extent of flooding between gages.
But unfortunately, the Flood Warning System won’t tell you how close water will get at its peak.
So when you realize you need to get out, you may not have enough time to make thorough preparations.
Screen capture from Harris County Flood Warning System. It shows current flooding, but not peak flooding.
Trying to Integrate the Best of Both Approaches
Those with knowledge of prior floods may be able to translate gage readings upstream to their location downstream.
But almost 10% of the American population moves every year. So, five years after a hurricane hit an area, half of the people in a neighborhood would likely have little knowledge or memory of it.
More than real-time inundation mapping, we need predictive inundation mapping.
Legal Concerns over Bad Information
One official I talked to for this article feared such a system. What if the prediction were wrong? What if it implied someone would be safe and then they died while evacuating? Imagine the legal liability!
As a result, officials often err on the side of caution. They may issue orders to evacuate in much wider areas than necessary.
We saw that during the May flood this year. The county issued evacuation maps that showed the extent of flooding during Harvey. As a result, people may be less inclined to evacuate for the next storm, even if it is warranted.
In extreme cases, such over-reaction has resulted in harm. Those who have lived in the Houston area for 20 years or more may remember the disastrous mass evacuation during Hurricane Rita in 2005.
One hundred thirteen people died from Rita in Texas, 107 of which were associated with the evacuation of the Houston metropolitan area.
Need for Better Tools
A former HCFCD employee told me that HCFCD has been working on a predictive inundation mapping system for years. But, says the source, it’s incredibly complex and requires validation.
Validation involves confirming predictions against real-world storms. However, giant, widespread floods don’t just happen every year. And every storm is unique, as we saw in yesterday’s post about the early May storm. Some areas may get feet of rain, while others get inches.
You just can’t generalize. Every storm is unique. And referring to historical analog storms may fail for several reasons:
Massive developments, such as Colony Ridge, may have changed the hydrology of the watershed. Colony Ridge has grown 50% larger than Manhattan in just ten years.
Rainfall intensity may vary in storms, even if rainfall totals don’t.
Unequal rainfall distribution means that flood peaks may combine in different ways at different times.
Potential Ways to Handle Uncertainty
To help handle those contingencies, predictive inundation maps could have buffer zones showing degrees of uncertainty. For instance, “If you’re in Zone A, there’s a 100% chance you will flood. In Zone B, 50%. In Zone C, 25%, etc.”
Plus, the legislature could craft legal protections for agencies making such predictions based on the best available information and science.
We need a public debate. Perhaps an even better approach will emerge from the dialog.
That would be far preferable, in my opinion, to causing immense anxiety among millions.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/2/24
2469 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/20240510-RJR_3506.jpg?fit=1100%2C733&ssl=17331100adminadmin2024-06-02 17:49:082024-06-02 17:49:10The Next Step in Inundation Mapping
June 1, 2024 – On the first day of what experts predict will be a record-setting 2024 hurricane season, I thought it would be interesting to see how much rainfall we had in May and so far this year. How wet has 2024 been?
May 2024 rainfall caused the second highest release from Lake Conroe in the history of the San Jacinto River Authority. But whether May 2024 will go into the records books depends on where you live.
Huntsville smashed its record high precipitation total for the month and year to date (YTD).
Conroe also set a record for May, but its YTD total fell slightly behind the record set in 1935.
Bush and Galveston came close to their record high totals for May and YTD.
At all four reporting stations that I sampled, YTD rainfall was well above normal.
However, the National Weather Service showed dramatic differences between locations.
More Than 5X Difference Across Region
According to the National Weather Service, Huntsville had the rainiest May since record keeping began – 24.7 inches. That brought Huntsville’s total for the first five months to 58.97 inches – about 10 inches higher than the average rainfall for an entire year.
58.97 inches is also almost triple the normal year-to-date (YTD) total for Huntsville.
At other reporting stations during the last 25 years:
Conroe had its rainiest May – 12.58 inches
Bush Intercontinental Airport had the fifth rainiest May – 11.05 inches.
Galveston had its fourth rainiest May. But it was only 4.39 inches.
Huntsville received more than five times the rainfall in Galveston during May. That shows how high the rainfall was in the northern part of the San Jacinto River Basin.*
These statistics demonstrate three things:
May was very wet.
2024 has been very wet so far.
Rainfall across the region has varied dramatically.
Conroe, Bush Intercontinental and Galveston did not set records for May. But their monthly totals all fell into the top quintile of the last 25 years. And that helped bring YTD totals to near record highs at all sampled locations.
See graphs below arranged geographically from north to south. The boxes superimposed over the graphs show the years of the record high and low totals for YTD precipitation as well as the precipitation in a normal year.
Note: Record year at this location so green and blue lines coincide.
2024 YTD Totals Compared to Normal YTD
When comparing normal YTD totals to 2024’s, we can see that:
Huntsville is 193% ahead of normal.
Conroe is 73% ahead.
Bush Intercontinental Airport is 51% ahead.
Galveston is 58% ahead.
2X Differences in Lake Houston Area
Rainfall can vary dramatically within much smaller areas than the Houston region. Take the Lake Houston Area, for instance. According to the Harris County Flood Warning System, during May 2024, the gage at:
US59 and the West Fork received 13.76 inches of rainfall.
West Lake Houston Parkway and the West Fork received 16.56 inches.
FM1960 bridge across Lake Houston received 12.28 inches.
Slightly upstream, FM1485 and the East Fork received 22.8 inches.
That meant an almost 2X difference between the high at FM1485 and the low at FM1960. The two locations are just nine miles apart.
80% of Annual Rainfall in First 5 Months
I live just two miles from the gage at the West Lake Houston Parkway bridge and recorded an almost identical amount of rainfall in my back yard.
My gage received 16.45 inches for the month. That was just a tenth of an inch less than the Harris County Flood Control gage at WLHP.
And that brought my total rainfall for the year to 40.12 inches. Our average annual rainfall is only 50 inches. So we’re already at 80% of a normal year. I received a third of an average year in the month of May alone.
So, it was a very wet month for the Rehak household, even though we received 8 inches less than Huntsville’s mind-boggling 24 inches.
Today, another hurricane season starts. All early predictions indicate it could be a record-setting season. So keep those umbrellas handy.
Posted by Bob Rehak on June 1, 2024
2468 days since Hurricane Harvey
* Footnote: The NWS charts below all show monthly rainfall for the last 25 years. I have sorted the years in descending order based on May rainfall totals and highlighted where 2024 ranks for each reporting station.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/4PM-Front.jpg?fit=1100%2C632&ssl=16321100adminadmin2024-06-01 11:57:332024-06-01 12:18:36How Wet Has 2024 Been?
The San Jacinto River Basin includes 28 watersheds and all or parts of 11 counties. We’ve experienced more than $12 billion in flood damages since 1975. And yet, incredibly, no one is in charge of drainage.
Map of San Jacinto River Basin and its watersheds, courtesy of SJRA.
We also have 1092 political subdivisions with flood-related authority. Yet no one is in charge of drainage.
We Work in Silos to Solve a Common Problem
That’s right. No one person is in charge of drainage. Instead, thousands of individuals working in their own little silos are scattered across more than 5,000 square miles. Unfortunately, stormwater doesn’t respect all those jurisdictional boundaries.
The San Jacinto Regional Flood Planning Group (reporting to the Texas Water Development Board) highlighted a “critical need for interagency coordination.” But there is none.
When No One is in Charge of Drainage, We All Suffer
Ironically, Texans won independence at the battle of San Jacinto. And we’ve been fighting to maintain it ever since.
We are so fiercely independent, we deny our interdependence. Even when it means destroying our own property and lives. It’s time to take a look in the mirror, folks.
Many ways exist to rank flood-prone areas and Texas ranks high on most of them.
Most hurricanes? Out of the 300 hurricanes that made landfall in the US since 1851, Texas ranks #2 after Florida with 66 hitting the Lone Star state – 22% of the U.S. total.
Percentage of state’s total population living in floodplains? Texas ties for 10th according to a 2017 study. But a 2023 TWDB study shows that 20% of Texans now live in floodplains; that would tie us for 3rd if nothing else changed.
Most disaster declarations? Texas ranks #2 when considering all types.
Flood deaths? Texas ranks #1. Two hundred people died between 2010 and 2022. Over a longer period of time, 1959-2014, the state had over 850 flood deaths.
Flood control is one area where Texans have room for improvement. But to improve we’ll need to work together.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/30/2024
2466 Days since Hurricane Harvey
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Challenge.jpg?fit=1100%2C674&ssl=16741100adminadmin2024-05-30 22:27:392024-05-30 22:31:5228 Watersheds, 11 Counties, $12 Billion in NFIP Claims, No One in Charge
The lakefront side of restaurant row is now shut in by sand collecting trash and logs swept downstream. The restaurants there, such as Chimichurri’s, Sharky’s, Raffa’s, and Zammitti’s, serve outstanding food and even more outstanding views. But at the moment, it’s not quite the romantic place for a marriage proposal at sunset. See the pics below.
Looking south from over waterfront restaurants at sand deposited by storm. Looking SW toward West Lake Houston ParkwayReverse angle. Looking north toward restaurant row and apartments beyond.
Dredging Costs Tough on Small Associations
Perhaps dredging companies are offering “buy one, get one free” deals next month.
Seriously, mobilization costs for dredging are so high that it makes sense to spread those costs over as many jobs as possible. By working together, the Kingwood Service Association and Kings Harbor could cut their mobilization costs in half.
Origin of Sand?
During the flood, I clocked the speed of debris floating in the water near this location. It was moving at 5-6 MPH, exactly the same speed as water moving through sand mines upstream on the West Fork. That’s more than enough to transport sand as you can see below from this industry-standard Hjulström curve.
River speed shown in blue. Size range for sand shown in red.
Did all the sand come from West Fork sand mines? No. The speed was also enough to erode riverbanks as you can see above. But the sand mines between US59 and I-45 expose approximately 33 times more sand to erosion.
Yesterday, I posted about the likely source for the sand blocking the Kingwood Diversion Ditch at River Grove Park. The same arguments apply here.
We need sand, but we also need to make sand miners operate more responsibly.
Posted by Bob Rehak on May 27, 2024
2463 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
https://i0.wp.com/reduceflooding.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/20240527-DJI_20240527123652_0882_D.jpg?fit=1100%2C619&ssl=16191100adminadmin2024-05-27 15:20:342024-05-27 15:20:35Kings Harbor Now Harborless After Flood
5/26/24 – Now that the flood has completely receded, aerial photos show that the Kingwood Diversion Ditch at River Grove Park has become completely blocked by sand again … for the third time in six years.
Without serious sand-mine reform (which is an unrealistic dream), dredging will become more frequent and costlier. We’re on an unsustainable path. Let’s look at the problem and a possible solution.
Already Dredged Twice Since Harvey
The mouth of the ditch has already been dredged twice since Harvey: once by the Army Corps and once by the Kingwood Service Association (KSA). But earlier this year, two floods redeposited sand that now blocks the channel mouth again.
Boaters report that river access has become increasingly difficult. Now it’s virtually impossible.
KSA owns the park and the boat launch, but not the Diversion Ditch which cuts through the park. The City and County have responsibility for that.
Regardless, KSA has obtained dredging bids north of $800,000 to keep the boat docks open. To put that in perspective, it’s one third of the organization’s cash reserves. And that will force KSA to decide whether it wants to continue funding a boat launch.
But a bigger, more important question remains. If the sediment continues to accumulate, how many people will flood? Hundreds flooded behind a Diversion-Ditch blockage during Harvey.
As sand builds higher, the problem will become more dangerous. So, where is all the sand coming from?
For this story, I started at River Grove and worked my way upriver toward a hellish, out-of-control sandscape on the West Fork just above Kingwood. It typifies 20 square miles of sand mines in a 20-mile reach of the West Fork between US59 and I-45. But let’s talk about River Grove first.
River Grove Boat Launch Blocked
Today, on a hot Memorial Day Weekend, every boat owner in Kingwood would normally flock to River Grove. But the parking lot was virtually empty this morning. Here’s why.
An emerging sand bar has totally blocked the boat launch.
While I took pictures at this location, one man with a small, flat-bottomed johnboat came in. He had to get out of his boat and drag it on foot across the sand bar. The sand bar totally blocks larger boats. To that point, note the virtually empty parking lot in the picture above.
Following the Sand Upstream
So, I took a short drive upstream to see where the sand came from. The next stop: the confluence of Spring Creek and the West Fork, a few hundred yards upstream from the US59 Bridge. The confluence has looked like this for the last month.
Slightly upstream from the US59 bridge. Spring Creek (left), West Fork San Jacinto (right).5/26/24.
That water on the right looked very dirty. So I followed the sediment trail upstream. It led to the hellish sandscape mentioned above. See below.
Full Scope of Damage Near Hallett Mine Now Apparent
As floods have receded, the damage to mines in the river’s floodway and floodplains has become apparent. So has damage to the river system itself.
During the storms, the river cut through the dike of an abandoned sand pit owned by Hallett until January 2024. That’s when Hallett sold it to a real estate developer, according to the Montgomery County Appraisal District records.
Within days of the sale, the year’s first flood breached the dike at the downstream, southern end of the pit. Later, in May, a second flood breached a dike on the upstream, northern end.
Then the river started flowing through the mile-long, half-mile-wide pit and abandoned its normal channel. It churned up massive amounts of exposed sand and carried it downriver. The river’s velocity was more than sufficient to transport sand.
As more and more stormwater went through the sand pit, less and less went down the normal river channel. Water velocity slowed in the channel and sand dropped out of suspension. That created an enormous blockage that now appears to have cut off the river channel.
No one has yet taken steps to rebuild the broken sand mine dikes. Nor has anyone cleared the river channel. Meanwhile, the West Fork is running through an abandoned sand mine and carrying sediment downstream. See pictures below.
Looking upstream over West Fork San Jacinto. Channel has filled in with sand and river has rerouted itself through an abandoned pit(upper left).
In the picture above, it’s hard to tell where the river even was. It formed an S starting at the lower left.
Where river exits southern end of pit and continues down river.
Between the entrance and the exit, the river looked like this.
Former West Fork Channel. The channel is totally cut off by sand. Nearby residents estimate the depth of the sand to be 5-6 feet high near the northern breach.
This one-minute video shows where the river now enters the sand pit and the blockage in the former river channel.
Video shot on 5/26/24
Rain, River-Depth Impacts on Photographs
Environmental factors often influence photography. So, I recorded the following.
Harris County’s Flood Warning System shows that it hasn’t rained at all in the last week. That has reduced rates of flow in the West Fork.
I took all pictures above on 5/26/24. At the time, Lake Conroe was finally approaching its normal level of 201 feet above mean sea level. But the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) was still releasing water at a modest 350 cubic feet per second (CFS).
Screen capture from SJRA dashboard, 12:07PM, 5/26/24.
The SJRA release from Lake Conroe increased flow in the river past the sand mines.
Downstream, the Coastal Water Authority was discharging almost 4,000 CFS from Lake Houston at the same time in preparation for some repairs on the dam beginning later this week.
Screen capture from Coastal Water Authority website at 12:18 PM, 5/26/24.
The CWA release would lower the water level slightly in Lake Houston and near River Grove Park. But it would not affect areas as far upstream as the sand mines.
The Lake Houston water level was several inches to a foot below normal when I took these pictures. The CWA lists the normal pool at 42.4 feet. However, the Texas Water Development Board says that the spillway on the lake has a crest elevation of 41.73 feet.
So, What’s Next?
Note that the Kingwood Diversion Ditch affects drainage of the entire western half of Kingwood. The Harris County Flood Control District listed it as one of the top two priorities among flood-mitigation projects in the Kingwood Area.
Leaving this ditch silted in is not an option. Take boating out of the discussion. Hundreds of homes flooded during Harvey near this ditch when it previously became silted in and backed up.
KSA, a small, volunteer organization, cannot continue to fund the dredging of City and County property as dredging intervals become more frequent. Especially since no one is attempting to reign in irresponsible mining practices upstream.
Kingwood needs help. As a result of the disaster declaration that came after recent flooding, the Harris County Flood Control District should explore using FEMA debris removal funds to remove this dangerous blockage immediately.
The Diversion Ditch project would be an excellent candidate for those funds. We need to make our elected representatives aware of the issue and a possible funding solution.
Hurry. We only have 30 days from the disaster declaration.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/26/24
2462 Days since Hurricane Harvey
The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.
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5/25/24 – Houston City Council Members Fred Flickinger and Twila Carter met at the Lake Houston gates yesterday with members of the Coastal Water Authority (CWA), Black & Veatch engineering, and Houston Public Works. They reviewed the status of repairs to a broken gate and a program to add 11 new gates to the dam.
Meeting at Lake Houston gates on 5/24/24 to discuss broken gate and 11 new gates.
Broken Gate Stuck in Down, Not Up Position
During the early May floods of 2024, news of a broken gate on the Lake Houston Dam spread rapidly on social media. Flooding concerns fueled rumors. Some folks heard the gate was stuck in the closed position. Others heard it was open. A visit to the gates yesterday confirmed that it was stuck in the down position.
A CWA employee said that one of two chains used to raise and lower the gate broke. That raised the possibility of the gate becoming jammed sideways in its frame if they tried to raise it with the remaining chain attached only to one side. If the gate did jam, CWA would have no ability to re-lower it.
That, in turn, meant the lake would continue losing water after the flood subsided. So they opted to leave it closed during the flood.
Gate stuck in down positionhas only one chain.I could not safely get a camera angle that showed the area of missing chain.Winch used to raise/lower tainter gates.Tainter gates (left) rotate via radial arms. Two gates on right raise/lower from bottom hinge.(Picture taken last year. Only one tainter gate was releasing yesterday.)
As of yesterday afternoon, waterwas no longer going over the spillway, but Lake Houston was filled to max. However, operatorswere still releasing water through working tainter gateto reduce the lake levelfor repairs.The chain on one side of this gate was pulling it up unevenly.
Repairs to Begin Next Week
The Coastal Water Authority (CWA) plans to fix the broken tainter-gate chain next week when the water level in the lake is lower. CWA manages Lake Houston for the City.
The repair team will include divers who will re-attach the broken chain to the upstream side of the gate underwater.
The operation was too dangerous to attempt during the flood because other gates were open. And at the peak of the flood, water going over the 3160-foot-wide spillway was SIX feet high.
Divers could have easily been swept away by the strong currents. One cubic foot of fresh water weighs about 62 pounds. And at the height of the flood, more than 100,000 cubic feet per second were flowing over the spillway and through the dam’s gates. That’s a lot of force!
Current Lake Houston Gates Have Limited Capacity
The current Lake Houston gates have a combined release capacity of only 10,000 cubic feet per second (CFS) – about 2,500 CFS each.
They are useful in pre-release scenarios, i.e., releasing water before a storm to create extra storage capacity in the lake for stormwater. That can reduce flood peaks both up- and downstream from the dam.
However, the current Lake Houston gates are so small, that it can take days to lower the lake significantly. And during that time, storms can veer away. Meteorologists just cannot offer precise estimates about where a storm will hit that far in advance.
Status of New, Bigger Gates
Adding more and bigger gates to the dam could reduce the lead time necessary to lower the lake. And that would give dam operators more certainty that they aren’t wasting the water.
To release water faster, before and during a storm, the City of Houston plans to add 11 more Lake Houston gates to the earthen portion of the dam just east of the old gates.
The new gates could release a total of 80,000 CFS, bringing the total pre-release capacity up to 90,000 CFS – 9X higher than the current rate.
New gates would be installed to right of existing gates in sunny area.
When complete, the CWA will be able to pre-release as much water in 2-3 hours as it currently does in a day.
The extra storage capacity for stormwater in the lake could then help reduce flood peaks both up- and downstream.
Extra Lake Houston gates could also release water faster during a storm.
According to the CWA, studies show that the extra gates would not worsen downstream flooding. Homes have already been bought out in downstream areas that would be affected.
The City is currently in the design phase for the new gate structure. Construction should start sometime in 2025 according to Council Member Flickinger.
However, the new gates would have to be custom manufactured. No one offers gates that size as off-the-shelf items. So, supply-chain staffing shortages could delay delivery of the gates. Reportedly, the companies that manufacture gates are still being affected by staffing shortages that started during the Covid pandemic.
Multiple Benefits of More Lake Houston Gates
When complete, the 90,000 CFS release capacity of the 15 Lake Houston gates (4 old, 11 new) would exceed the largest release ever made by the SJRA from Lake Conroe – 79,000 CFS during Hurricane Harvey.
That would help improve joint operations of the two lakes during flood events.
But engineers at yesterday’s meeting cautioned that the new gates are not a silver bullet.
They say pre-release won’t be needed during small floods. And pre-release will have minimal impact during giant floods, such as Harvey.
That’s because large events like Harvey can replace the entire volume of the lake dozens of times during the event. In such floods, lowering the lake a foot or two beforehand will provide negligible benefits. Another monster flood could replace that volume in minutes.
However, the gates will provide significant improvements during 25-, 50- and 75-year flood events. That will provide greater safety margins for many people who previously flooded or were on the verge of flooding during such events.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/25/24
2461 Days since Hurricane Harvey
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5/24/24 – The SJRA board reviewed a presentation yesterday about Lake Conroe release rates during the early May storm this year. Sadly, while some people flooded, far fewer flooded than in Harvey, despite the fact that the peak inflow to Lake Conroe was higher during this storm than it was in Harvey.
Better management of the temporary floodwater storage space between Lake Conroe’s normal lake level and flowage easement may have made the difference. But there may be opportunities to make an even bigger difference.
Dissecting a Disaster
In early May this year, the headwaters of Lake Conroe received half a year’s rainfall in a few days. It was extreme to say the least. At the peak of the inflow, dam operators were releasing almost 72,000 cubic feet per second, yet the lake level still rose.
That was the second highest release rate in the history of the San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA). Only during Hurricane Harvey did the SJRA release more – 79,000 CFS at the peak.
The peak inflow was greater during this event than during Hurricane Harvey, according to Bret Raley, the San Jacinto River Authority’s Lake Conroe Division Manager.
This time, hundreds of homes flooded downstream. Thousands more were threatened. But it wasn’t nearly the disaster that Harvey was.
Regardless people who flooded or nearly flooded want to know why the release rate was so high and whether it could have been lower. Raley’s after-action report to the SJRA board meeting yesterday provides some answers.
Or you can review the slides below and my summary.
Note: some slides in this presentation use slightly different time periods.
Temporary Storage Provides Partial Buffer Against Flooding
Raley began with a recitation of SJRA’s top priorities re: operation of the Lake Conroe Dam.
He stated that “Our number one priority is … to preserve and protect the structural integrity of the dam. If we did not, the ramifications would be unimaginable.”
“I contend we are protecting public safety. How? Through a vigorous inspection and maintenance program; post-event assessments; and safe spillway operations.”
The dam, he says, provides a buffer against the full brunt of floodwaters. You’ll see later in the presentation, that at times, the inflow exceeded the outflow. Even though the Lake Conroe dam wasn’t designed for flood control, it still provides a modest buffer of temporary storage that helped reduce downstream impacts.
Only 15% of Upper Basin Protected by Dam
The Lake Conroe dam controls only about 15% of the square mileage in the upper San Jacinto River Basin.
The upper San Jacinto River basin includes nine different watersheds that all drain to Lake Houston. Said Raley, “Ours is at the very, very top of what I sometimes refer to as a funnel. Tthe bottom of the funnel is Lake Houston, the Lake Conroe watershed is at the top.”
Raley continued, “The Lake Conroe watershed is only 450 square miles. But it’s also the only watershed in the entire 3000 square miles controlled by a gated structure. The other nine watersheds flow through seven different counties.”
When rain makes its way to Lake Houston depends on when and where the rain fell. In this event, the heaviest rain fell in the West Fork (Lake Conroe) and East Fork watersheds. It could have been much worse if heavy rains had also fallen in Lake, Spring, and Cypress Creek watersheds.
Permit Limits Storage Higher Than 201 Feet Above Sea Level
The Lake Conroe Dam’s operating permit imposes several limitations that operators must contend with.
Said Raley. “The dam was constructed pursuant to a permit from the State of Texas. It authorizes us to store up to an elevation of 201 feet above mean sea level permanently. We also have the authorization to store above 201 temporarily during storm flows.”
“The permit also requires us to pass the inflows once the lake level gets above 201. But any water released below 201 must be used against permitted water rights. So there must be a permittee with available water, and then that permittee can ask to use the water.”
“The City of Houston may have, from time to time, water that’s available, and if so, they can call on it.”
Storage, Mitigation and Pre-Release
Raley then discussed the three main things he wanted people to remember from his presentation. He summarizes them in this slide.
Raley says that water which rises above 201 feet above mean sea level (MSL) cannot be held back; the lake’s operation procedures mitigate peak downstream flows; and that if the City of Houston wants to lower Lake Conroe, the City must ask for the water out of the two thirds of the lake that it owns.
Raley never addressed why the SJRA discontinued its seasonal lowering program that was in effect for several years after Harvey. The existence of that program contradicted some of the points he made in his presentation. That leads one to wonder how firm the rules he describes really are in emergencies.
Water Must Be Released as it Starts to Rise
After introducing his key points, Raley goes into more detail on each.
Raley discussed the differences between water-supply and flood-control reservoirs. “Lake Conroe is a water supply reservoir,” he said. “The intent is to keep the reservoir as full as possible to maintain your supply. In a flood control reservoir, you want to maintain capacity. You want to maintain space that can accept inflows so that you can absorb that water before having to pass it.”
Normally, Only 18″ Between Top of Water and Top of Gates
The design of the tainter gaits on Lake Conroe is another constraint. They do not allow much room for water to rise.
The photo on the left shows a gate in the normal resting position with the lake at the normal level. Water can rise only 18 inches before overtopping the gate.
If that happens, operators lose control. So, as the water rises, they must elevate the gate to stay ahead of rising levels. Remember, storms often pack high winds that create waves. Water can be choppy, not placid as shown here.
“Our gates are not designed to be overtopped” said Raley. “So, we must raise them incrementally to maintain safe freeboard.” Freeboard is an engineering term that, in this context, means “safety margin.”
The second photo shows the downstream side of a gate. Sheet flow coming over the top could destroy this support structure says Raley. “They’re just not designed to withstand that kind of force.”
Six Feet of Buffer Space
A flowage easement lets the SJRA flood properties surrounding Lake Conroe during extreme events. “We’ve got six feet of buffer that we can use,” said Raley. “Our operating protocol helps balance lake-level rise upstream and outflows downstream.”
As the water in the lake rises, SJRA must raise the gates. Still, rising water indicates that more water is coming in than going out…at least temporarily.
In extreme events, SJRA could certainly use even more stormwater storage. (But that would require pre-releasing water. Raley describes the constraints on pre-release several slides further down.)
Areas north and east of Lake Conroe received about half a year’s rain in a few days, testing the limits of the system that Raley described. It wasn’t just the amount of rain. It was also the intensity.
The basin wide average for May 2nd, for instance, approached 7 inches.
The lake at at FM1375 received more than an inch (or close to) it in several 15-minute periods. At that same location, they also received three inches in one hour.
It’s also important to realize that SJRA came into this event coming off another heavy rain. Note how the solid black line below (at the left) was just starting to return to normal when it suddenly peaked.
Note also the steepness of the rise when the black line turns up. “In a ten hour period, we went from 8,000 to 72,000 cfs,” said Raley. “That is fast. Very fast.”
The backline represents the inflow and the blue line represents the outflow. The rapid rise caused operators to open the gates wide at first. However, they also reduced the outflow when the inflow dropped. The two curves follow each other.
Inflow Higher than Harvey
The peak inflow during that rapid rise exceeded the peak inflow rate during Harvey.
The map and tables on the right indicate the peak flows coming from each tributary into Lake Houston.
Note how peak inflows from Lake, Spring and Cypress Creeks on the west were fractions of the volume coming from Lake Conroe.
Pre-Release Capabilities Constrained
Raley finished his presentation with a discussion of pre-release as a possible mitigation measure. The headline below says it all. Gone are the days of seasonal lowering.
At 700 cfs, the permit limit, Raley says it would take weeks to lower the lake. But weather predictions are not accurate that far in advance.
And if the storm misses Lake Conroe, a big release from the lake could make flooding in Lake Houston worse – especially if the storm misses Lake Conroe to the south.
So the SJRA tosses the responsibility back to the City of Houston, They make the City call for the water (out of its share of the lake) if the City wants Conroe lowered
Conclusion and Insight
Raley’s presentation won’t make flood victims feel better. But it may help them understand how difficult managing floods can be.
The important thing to take away from this is that there’s room in Lake Conroe for temporary storage of stormwater. And releasing that water so that it reaches populated areas downstream before or after the peaks coming from other tributaries will be the key to minimizing flood damage.
For instance, releasing a smaller amount after a larger peak has already passed won’t flood any more homes.
Remember, flood peaks are not necessarily additive. You can’t automatically assume that all peaks will hit at the same time and pile on top of each other.
I’m sure more knowledge can be acquired from close examination of this event. For instance, one of the big differences between this storm and Harvey was the downstream representation on the SJRA board by Mark Micheletti.
But Micheletti is the only downstream representative on a seven-person board. lf that continues, you can bet no substantial changes will be made in the long-term operation and policies of Lake Conroe.
Another thing to look at is whether keeping Lake Conroe at slightly lower levels during wet seasons would give dam operators more temporary storage, and thus protect more homes and businesses both upstream and down.
Posted by Bob Rehak on 5/24/24
2460 Days since Hurricane Harvey
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