Tropics 6.27.24

Potential Trouble in the Tropics

6/27/24 5PM –The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted 2024 would become one of the most active hurricane seasons ever in the tropics. We’re not out of June yet. And we’ve already had one tropical storm. Now, another potential system is about to head from the Caribbean into the Gulf. And a third area of concern is barreling westward toward the Caribbean. See below.

Chances of Development

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, “Conditions may become slightly better for some organization of (the yellow area) once over the southern Gulf of Mexico.”

The red area shows signs of better organization today. NHC currently gives it an 80% chance of development in the next 7 days, and 60% in the next two.

Potential Tracks for Red Area

More important, some models suggest it could turn into a full blown major hurricane (Cat 3 or Cat 4). And one of the models shows the potential track shooting the gap between Cuba and the Yucatan into the central Gulf.

Intensity Could Reach Cat 4, Unusual This Early in Season

We’re still way too far out to predict with certainty what will happen, but it’s instructive to note some climatology. In the 30 years between 1991 and 2020, NHC says that the average date for the first hurricane was August 11. And the first major hurricane usually doesn’t happen until September 1.

That said, see what the models are forecasting 4 to 5 days out.

Current Satellite View of Two Systems

Models are great. But I’m also a great believer in eyeballs. Here’s what the two systems look like at 4:30 PM CDT from a satellite. Note the developing storms south of Florida and North of the eastern coast of South America.

Better to Be Prepared

As usual, I end such posts with a caution to pray for the best and prepare for the worst. I’ve posted a variety of links on preparedness from trusted sources on my Links Page. Just scroll down.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/27/24 at 5PM

2494 Days since Hurricane Harvey