Beryl Update, Saturday AM

7/6/24 – As of 7 AM on Saturday morning, Beryl was centered in the Gulf of Mexico. Once a powerful Cat 5 hurricane, the storm emerged from its trek across the Yucatan as a tropical storm. However, it will likely re-intensify into a hurricane just before making landfall. The storm is about to enter an area of low wind sheer and high water temperatures.

Likely Landfall Near Matagorda Bay

According to the National Hurricane Center, Beryl will most likely come ashore between Matagorda Bay and Corpus Christi. But all of Houston is now in the cone of uncertainty. That means we have an equal chance of taking a direct hit from the storm.

Heavy Rain Threat

Hurricane watches and storm surge warnings are up for most of the Texas Coast up to High Island. But the most likely impact in the Lake Houston Area will be heavy rains. At this hour, the National Weather Service predicts 4-8 inches. But Jeff Lindner, the Harris County Meteorologist warned that isolated totals up to 15 inches are possible. That’s as much as the area north of us received in the early May flood of this year.

Overall, NWS says we have a slight to moderate risk for excessive rainfall in the next five days.

Flash Flood Threat

Arrival Time in Houston Area

We should begin to feel the effects of the storm Sunday evening.

Rain from the storm could linger for a day or two as Beryl becomes a tropical depression and the center of the storm curves north of us before heading to the northeast.

Inundation Areas

NOAA issued this map for Harris County. It shows possible areas of inundation. NOAA urged people in affected areas to follow evacuation warnings.

Lakes Not Being Lowered at this Hour

At this hour (9AM Saturday), the SJRA is not lowering Lake Conroe. Nor is the Coastal Water Authority lowering Lake Houston. However, the City of Houston did issue a warning yesterday afternoon that it might lower Lake Houston.

The good news: there’s little chance that we will experience tropical storm force winds this far north.

For the Latest Updates

For the latest watches and warnings associated with Beryl, consult the National Hurricane Center website. They update it every few hours. And the next few hours will be critical. There’s still a chance that the storm could shift more toward Houston.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 7/6/24 based on information from NHC, NWS and Harris County.

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