tropical threats from NHC

Hurricane Center Posts First Tropical Threats of Season for Gulf

6/13/24 – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center’s 7-day outlook shows the first tropical threats of the season for the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic.

From National Hurricane Center as of 1:16AM EDT on 6/14/24

That orange area in the Bay of Campeche carries a 40% risk of formation within 7 days.

According to NHC forecasters, “A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.”

The Weather Channel says, “T​hat would bring locally heavy rain to parts of the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to as far west as Texas and eastern Mexico, beginning Sunday and lasting well into the week. Exactly where the heaviest rain could fall remains uncertain this far out in time.”

As the system moves farther north, it will encounter record-warm sea-surface temperatures and wind shear should decrease.

The torrential rains in Florida this week serve as a warning that widespread damage doesn’t require a full-blown hurricane. Parts of Florida received 18-24 inches of life-threatening rain. News media are filled with images of flooded streets and stalled cars. The system could still turn into a tropical storm as it moves up the east coast.

If either of these storms turns into a tropical storm, its name will be Alberto. The next will be Beryl.

As Houston faces new tropical threats, the area is still recovering from non-tropical May storms.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, predicts we could see another 2-4 inches of rain from this next threat. He expects the heaviest rains to fall near the coast with decreasing amounts inland. Lindner also warns of strong wind and wave action near the coast.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 6/13/24

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