If You Thought Hurricane Season Was Over, Think Again

The 3PM CST update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Eta shows the storm emerging into the Bay of Honduras this afternoon as a tropical depression. Then it will intensify into a tropical storm, head to Cuba, and take a left turn into the Gulf. Round and round she goes, where she stops…

Source: National Hurricane Center

Near Hurricane Strength Again in Florida Straits by Monday

The NHC expects Eta to impact southern Florida and the Florida Keys with high winds and heavy rainfall this weekend before it turns into the Gulf.

The NHC does not predict more than five days out. It also says that the level of uncertainty associated with this forecast is higher than usual.

Image courtesy of NOAA. The large cloud mass in the lower portion of the image is Eta moving back out into the warm waters of the western Caribbean.

Then Turning into Gulf

From WeatherNerds.org

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist says, “It is possible that Eta may eventually transition toward a sub-tropical system as it becomes increasingly entangled with the upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. For now NHC brings the system to a 65mph tropical storm over the Florida straits early next week with some of the intensity guidance showing slightly stronger solutions that would be near hurricane intensity.”

As of this morning, as this WeatherNerds spaghetti model shows, forecasts were all over the place. Later forecasts suggest it may be pushed east of the Houston Region. But again, it’s still a long way off.

So keep your eye on the Gulf. As Yogi Berra used to say, “It ain’t over till it’s over.” What goes for baseball goes for hurricane season – this year especially! Remember, Eta set a record for intensifying from a tropical storm into a major hurricane within hours before slamming into Nicaragua.

This Washington Post story says winds measured 140 mph when it came ashore. But the evening before satellite data suggested the storm contained 190 mph winds near its core. The storm maxed out the scales for satellite-derived hurricane-intensity data. NHC thought it was a Cat 5.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 11/5/2020 based on info from the NHC, WeatherNerds and HCFCD.

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