Hurricane Delta Tracking East; Back up to Cat 3, But Houston Out of Cone

As of 4 PM Thursday, Delta has restrengthened into a category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph. One day before Delta makes landfall, it now appears that once again, the Lake Houston Area will miss the brunt of a vicious storm. Unfortunately, for the poor folks in Louisiana, it appears that Delta will take the same track that Laura did last month and ravage them once again.

At its 4 PM Thursday update, the National Hurricane Center shows Delta in the middle of the Gulf and headed toward Louisiana with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph.

Warnings from Sargent, TX East

Folks east of High Island, TX remain under a hurricane warning. Those between Sargent, TX and High Island are under a tropical storm warning. A storm surge warning remains in effect for everyone between High Island and Mississippi.

Warnings mean that conditions are expected within the warning area, usually within 36 hours.

Projected Track; Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Out 160 miles

Forecast models are now strongly in agreement on the projected track. That still doesn’t mean the Lake Houston Area is in the clear. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles, according to Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner.

Here’s what Weather Live predicts the footprint of the storm will look like Friday morning at 7 AM. That blue dot represents Kingwood.

Lake Houston Area Impacts

NHC now predicts we have a 60-70% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds.

They most likely will arrive tomorrow morning around 8 A.M. Delta is moving NNW at around 15 miles per hour. According to Lindner, “Tropical storm force winds will be possible in the TS warning area, although this will be heavily dependent on the expansion of the wind field. Chambers and southern Liberty Counties have the greater risk of sustained tropical storm force winds. We could see sustained tropical storm force winds in and around Galveston Bay on Friday and over southeast Harris, Galveston, and coastal Brazoria Counties.

NHC predicts the storm will weaken into a tropical depression within 36 hours after coming ashore.

Expected Rainfall

The eastern part of Houston could see anywhere between one and four inches of rain, with the higher totals farther east. Louisiana will likely see 6-10 inches.

Still, there is only a marginal (<5%) to slight (<10%) risk of flash flooding.

Storm Surge Warnings

One of the most serious threats: storm surge. NHC predicts water up to 11 feet above ground in the area around Vermillion Bay.

Posted By Bob Rehak on 10/8/2020 at 5:15 PM based on data from NHC and HCFCD

1136 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 385 Days after Imelda