Pics of Tornado Damage in Kingwood/Forest Cove

Early Sunday morning on January 9, 2022, an EF-1 tornado touched down along the Kingwood Diversion Ditch between Hamblen and Kingwood Drive. It damaged trees and homes on both sides of the ditch for several blocks. By early afternoon, tree crews were swarming over the area, making the streets barely passable.

Tornado or Just Strong Winds?

I asked one of the crews if they were sure a tornado caused the damage. They said yes, based on the type of damage they saw. The tops of trees had been twisted off like screw caps. See photos below taken on Sunday afternoon after the storm cleared out.

Note two garages and corner of one home damaged by toppled trees east of ditch.

While some trees were uprooted, the vast majority of the damage involved “topped trees.” Had straight line winds been the cause, you would see more uprooted trees. The damage would have been more widespread. And the trees would have been pushed down in a uniform direction rather than scattered like pick-up sticks.

Looking south along Kingwood Diversion Ditch. Note eight topped trees left of the ditch and one of the tops hanging from a wire over the ditch.
West of ditch on Forest Cove side. Note damaged garages, back corner of home, and trees still hanging from wires.
Close up of topped tree and blown-over fence.
Portion of fallen tree thrown through fence by winds.
Forlorn homeowner on crushed gable. “Where do I go from here?”

ABC-13 confirmed the strength of the tornado on its evening news tonight. According to ABC, the tornado came through at approximately 1:30 AM. According to residents I spoke to, the noise was deafening and pets started acting nervous about that time.

Dogs Knew Before You Did

This article from Psychology Today explains that dogs’ hearing is four times more sensitive than humans’. That means they can hear things four times farther away – sooner than we can. Canine hearing also picks up higher pitched sounds. If the noise sounds deafening to you, think how painful it must be for your pooch.

I live near Kingwood High School two miles away. At precisely 1:30, my dog started whimpering, trembling, and tried to jump in bed with me.

Storm Totals Compared to Record and Climate Norm

For the record, the storm that started Saturday afternoon and ended early Sunday morning dumped about 4.96 inches in my rain gage. Jeff Miller, an Elm Grove resident said he had 5.5 inches in his.

These are unusually high amounts for January. The all time record for January 8 was 5.89 inches, set in 1891, 130 years ago! Houston usually receives 3.4 inches for the whole month of January. Plum Grove on the East Fork received 6.88 inches in this storm – more than double the monthly average for the Houston area. Luce Bayou on 321 in Liberty County received an incredible 8.56 inches in the storm. Had either of those locations been the official recording station, this storm would have gone down in history.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/9/2022

1594 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Plum Grove Flooding, Many Streets Cut Off

After heavy rains and several tornados swept through the area Saturday afternoon, many streets in Plum Grove are under water tonight.

Photo posted on Facebook by Plum Grove Volunteer Fire Department

Warning from Plum Grove VFD

The Plum Grove Volunteer Fire Department reports that: “We are receiving multiple reports of several roads flooding in the area.

  • FM 1010 near the Valero
  • Plum Grove Road near Road 5000
  • Multiple areas of Paul Campbell Loop

“Plum Grove VFD is currently assisting the city with placing road warning signs with out our high water vehicle. Please avoid driving in the weather if possible. Do not drive through high water areas where you can not clearly see the roadway. Do not chance swift moving water. Remember it only takes a few inches of fast moving water to sweep you or your vehicle off the road. Please be safe.”

The gage at FM2090 and the San Jacinto East Fork shows that Plum Grove received 5.96 inches of rain, the highest total in the area, by far. To put that amount in perspective, it’s only a half inch less than Plum Grove received on May 7, 2019, which caused widespread flooding.

Gage readings in NE Houston area at 9PM on 1/8/2022. 5.96 inches near Liberty/Montgomery County Line is in Plum Grove on FM2090 at the San Jacinto East Fork. From HarrisCounty Flood Warning System.
4.66 inches of the total came between 4 and 6PM. From Harris County Flood Warning System.
Radar as of 12am Sunday 1/9/22 shows more heavy rain headed toward Plum Grove. These storms are dumping up to 4.5 inches per hour on west and central Harris County.

All Channels Still within Banks At This Hour

It’s not clear how many homes have been affected. Pam and Jack Arnold, whose home near the East Fork was cut off for three days last Spring, say that their property still has not flooded at this hour but that the river is still rising. They are watching it closely. Pam says, “We have everything loaded to move up the road, but we could’t get out of Plum Grove if we tried right now.”

I’ll try to get up there tomorrow morning to get pictures. It’s not safe now.

Ironically, in Splendora at Peach Creek, just four miles west, the gage on FM2090 recorded only 2 inches of rain – one third the amount in Plum Grove. The Harris County Flood Warning System shows that all channels in the region are currently within their banks. Today’s rains, at this point, seem to have caused primarily street flooding.

Forecast from Harris County Flood Control

Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s Meteorologist, reported at 11:30 PM that widespread rainfall will continue across the area tonight bringing another inch of rain. However, strong lines of thunderstorms are training across the area. “Additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with isolated totals of 3-4 inches will be possible within this line tonight. The main threat will be street flooding, but rises on area watersheds will be possible.”

Lindner warns that the East Fork of the San Jacinto River is rising rapidly and may reach bankfull (flood stage) at FM 1485 tonight and downstream to Lake Houston. Flooding near the river will be possible and mostly limited to low lying roads.

Luce Bayou is also rising in central Liberty County and run-off from both middle and upper Luce and Tarkington Bayou will route downstream toward Lake Houston tonight and Sunday. Rises are likely near FM 2100 in NE Harris County.

At 1 am on Sunday morning 1/9/22, Lindner reported on the training supercell thunderstorms shown above. “They are producing up to 4.5 inches of rainfall per hour. Significant street flooding is likely. Rapid rises on the smaller channels are likely.”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/8/2022, updated at 1 am 1/9/22 based on information from Scott Engle of the Montgomery County Police Reporter and Harris County Flood Control.

1593 Days since Hurricane Harvey

More Than 1,000 Acres Being Cleared South of Splendora High School

Forestar Real Estate Group, Inc., one of the nation’s leading developers, is clearing land south of FM2090 opposite Splendora High School for a new residential development called Splendora Crossing. Forestar solicited bids for clearing Phase 1 in June 2021 and Phase 2 in September 2021. Aerial photos indicate clearing activity beyond Phase 2 is likely related. However, I can find no plans and can’t verify that. Montgomery County has not yet responded to my Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) Request.

Together, the cleared areas will comprise approximately 1160 acres and stretch approximately 1.5 miles along FM2090.

Estimate based on Aerial Photos, Plans and Google Earth
Plans for Phases I, 2 and beyond. Note: more clearing is already underway to the left/west of the western property boundary. See pictures below.

The Way It Was

The area in question was heavily forested.

Approximate location of new development.

Gully Branch runs through the middle of it and joins Peach Creek farther east near US59.

FEMA’s National Flood Hazard Layer Viewer shows a substantial 100-year flood plain along Gully Branch running through the middle of the property based on a pre-Atlas 14 study in 2014.
From the Montgomery County Harvey Story. FM2090 was cut off and impassable during Harvey. Gully Branch is the unmarked stream that parallels FM2090 in the map.

Peach Creek runs down the western side of Lake Houston Park and joins Caney Creek and the East Fork San Jacinto at East End Park in Kingwood.

The Way It Is

Contractors already have constructed two large detention ponds and a drainage/detention ditch on the property that fronts FM2090. The ditch parallels Gully Branch and will likely shrink the floodplain. Contractors used dirt from the ditches and ponds to elevate areas where homes will go.

Looking east along FM2090 at eastern portion of new development. Note Splendora High School in upper left.

On the western section, clearing extends about a half mile south of the road. See the picture below.

Looking SW at western portion. FM2090 snakes out of view in the upper right. It’s not clear how big the area in the distance is. I could not find plans.
Closer shot of western section. Note large detention pond in western section and Gully Branch cutting across drainage channels.
Looking south at Phase 2 Burn Pit and area still being cleared.
Close up of detention pond on eastern section. Looking east. Splendora High School is in upper left.
Looking SE. Construction roads are already snaking into forest.
Looking west along FM2090.
TCEQ permit sign on eastern portion of site. I did not see one posted on western portion.

Unlike Woodridge Village, this developer seems to be building detention during clearing rather than afterwards. That’s a good sign. More news to follow as it becomes available.

Update: A FOIA Request to Montgomery County revealed that there are actually two developers working on this land. For more on this story and to learn about the drainage impact of the development, see this post.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/8/2022 and updated on 1/15/2022

1593 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Texas Supreme Court Denies Petition for Mandamus in Harris County Redistricting Lawsuit

On January 6, the Texas Supreme Court denied the petition for mandamus in the first of two lawsuits over the Harris County Ellis-3 redistricting plan. The Ellis-3 plan completely flipped Precincts 3 and 4 while altering the boundaries of both. The likely end result will be a 4-1 Democratic supermajority in the next election. A supermajority would let commissioners shift flood-bond funds around at will.

Mandamus is a judicial order commanding another court or person to perform a specific duty. In this case, Commissioners Cagle, Ramsey and their supporters requested the court to order Lina Hidalgo to stop the Ellis-3 Plan from moving forward.

File photo of Harris County Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis who is at the center of this controversy.

Central Issue At Stake

The central issue in the case was whether 1.1 million people had their voting rights denied or delayed by the Ellis-3 plan. The Texas Supreme Court recognized the inevitable problem of preserving (or minimizing disruption to) voting rights in staggered elections when redistricting.

“To be abundantly clear, by denying the petition today, we do not dispute that the constitutional issue Relators raise is a serious question that warrants this Court’s full consideration when properly presented. We do not prejudge the outcome.“

Basis for Denial

However, in denying the writ of mandamus, the judges cited:

  • A delay in filing the initial appeal after the District Court dismissed the suit. Filing for the election had already begun. The judges said, “Avoidable delays, in particular, may be fatal to the courts’ ability to proceed at all.”
  • The need to describe “with precision how any relief will affect that election and the larger structure of our state’s election machinery.” And “…a party who asks a court to take action that could disrupt the election calendar after the election process has begun has the duty to explain the practical consequences…”

Regarding the second point, the Justices wrote, “Relators claim to be in possession of an alternative map that lawfully redraws precincts without excluding any voter from consecutive county-commissioner elections. This map was not presented to the commissioners court, the district court, the Respondents, or this Court, and it is unclear how this map could become law.”

Justices Blacklock and Young wrote in delivering the opinion of the Texas Supreme Court that, “Expedition and precision in requesting relief help ensure that courts can never be converted, willingly or otherwise, into a partisan tool for one side or the other. Those requirements reduce the incentives for partisan adversaries to lie in wait with lawsuits that create chaos. To be clear, we do not charge Relators here with any such intention. We simply note that the rules are demanding because such conduct would otherwise go undeterred.”

Sets No Blanket Precedent

“We emphasize that our inability to address the merits of this petition on the eve of the election—because of the timing and nature-of-relief problems discussed above does not by any means establish that there is never any judicial relief that could be given,” said the ruling.

The Justices then spent several pages exploring questions about how judicial interference would affect the machinery of an election already in progress. “To be abundantly clear, by denying the petition today, we do not dispute that the constitutional issue Relators raise is a serious question that warrants this Court’s full consideration when properly presented.” The Justices just didn’t feel there were enough specifics in this case to let them do so.

Not a Summary Judgement

Significantly, the Texas Supreme Court said, “We deny the petition for writ of mandamus, but we do not do so lightly or summarily. Our decision implies no endorsement, affirmation, or other view of the redrawn map of precincts challenged here. Nor do we suggest that mandamus would never be an appropriate vehicle to resolve this question or ones like it. Our narrow holding is that this mandamus petition, under the circumstances we describe below, cannot go forward under settled precedents that sharply limit judicial authority to intervene in ongoing elections.”

Second Lawsuit Still Pending in Lower Court

A second lawsuit by former commissioner Steve Radack is still pending in the Harris County 190th Civil Court. That suit alleges the Ellis-3 plan should be invalidated because it was sprung on people at the last minute without sufficient public notice. The Texas Open Meetings Act demands a minimum of 72 hours notice.

But the Ellis-3 plan was posted online only minutes before the meeting in which the plan was approved. In that meeting, 94 members of the public signed up to speak. Not one of them mentioned the Ellis-3 plan. The first mention of Ellis-3 in the transcript is when commissioners started debating plans.

For the complete text of the Supreme Court ruling, click here.

For the official transcript of the meeting in which Commissioners approved the Ellis-3 Plan, click here.

It’s not clear how or if the Supreme Court of Texas ruling on the Cagle/Ramsey suit will affect any ruling in the Radack suit. Delays were a central issue in denying mandamus. And the Radack suit was filed six weeks AFTER the Cagle/Ramsey suit.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/7/22

1592 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Price of Progress?

Some say that mining sand from our rivers and flood plains is the price of progress.

Looking west at part of Hallett Mine Complex bisected by the West Fork of San Jacinto. Photographed 1/1/22. The pond in the middle foreground is part of another abandoned mine adjacent to Hallett.

Pros and Cons

Sand has its benefits. We need it to make concrete. And we need concrete to accommodate a growing population. And a growing population creates income for builders, tradesmen and other businesses.

But mining sand also has several downsides. It alters the environment on a large scale. Wildlife lose habitat. Erosion increases. The sediment can contribute to flooding by forming dams and reducing conveyance downstream. Water quality also suffers. These are global problems.

Out of Sight. Out of Time. Out of Mind.

Sand mining mostly takes place in floodplains along rivers. Because our terrain offers no elevated viewpoints, the only way to see the mines is from the air. So for the vast majority of people, they’re out of sight, out of mind and, as a consequence, we’re out of time. More than 20 square miles of sand mines already border the San Jacinto West Fork between I-45 and I-69.

The Hallett mine complex in Porter and an adjacent abandoned mine now stretch 3 miles north to south and 2 miles east to west. And Hallett is just one of several such complexes on the West Fork.

New Best Management Practices recently adopted by the TCEQ for sand mining will help in the future. But much damage has already been done.

Where Do We Go From Here?

It’s time to start a conversation about the price of progress. How do we restore this land to another useful purpose in the long run? And who should pay for that?

Looking south from farther west at the end of the pond mentioned above. Note outfall to river, top left. Also note recent repairs to Hallett dike, bottom right.
Looking east across abandoned mine complex to left of river, which flows from bottom to top. New Northpark Woods subdivision is in upper left. Part of Hallett mine is on right.
Satellite photo from 2020 courtesy of Google Earth showing Hallett and adjacent abandoned mines.

The Long-Term Question

What do you do with an area this large when miners finish?

  • Do the ponds turn into recreational amenities and parks? (Not when left like those in the third photo!)
  • Who will plant grass and trees?
  • What do you do with the old equipment?
  • How do you turn these areas into detention ponds?
  • Who maintains them? (Montgomery County doesn’t even have a flood control district.)
  • What happens to bordering neighborhoods if rivers decide to reroute themselves through the pits?

Lots of questions. Little consensus.

When you start out to create a detention pond, it’s easy to plan recreation around it. But when the primary goal is mining, the end result can be dangerous, i.e., banks that cave in after miners walk away or kids playing on abandoned equipment.

Abandoned dredge at abandoned Humble mine on north Houston Avenue has been there since Harvey. Area is unfenced.
Rusting processing equipment left at same abandoned Humble mine near West Fork. This is between a driving range and a paintball park.

The new Best Management Practices do not require miners to post a performance bond that would ensure cleanup and conversion to a suitable post-mining use.

In some areas, city and county governments make arrangements with miners to take over abandoned mines. That seems like a decent idea to me. That may be the price of progress.

We need dialog on this issue – unless we’re willing to let private industry turn our rivers into eyesores.

Posted by Bob Rehak

1591 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Former Commissioner Radack Files Second Redistricting Lawsuit; Hidalgo Responds to First

Former Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Steve Radack filed a redistricting lawsuit on New Years Eve last week. This lawsuit comes hot on the heels of a previous lawsuit by Commissioners Jack Cagle, Tom Ramsey and their supporters. That lawsuit is now in the Texas Supreme Court. Here’s an overview of where both cases stand. The fate of flood mitigation in Harris County could hang in the balance.

File photo from 2021 of Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis whose redistricting plan sparked two lawsuits.

Radack Lawsuit Alleges Lack of Sufficient Public Notice

The Radack lawsuit alleges that County Judge Lina Hidalgo, Precinct 1 Commissioner Rodney Ellis, and Precinct 2 Commissioner Adrian Garcia passed a redistricting plan without providing sufficient public notice.

Radack claims that constitutes a violation of the Texas Open Meetings Act (TOMA). TOMA requires that members of the public must have 72 hours notice of provisions being considered, but the Ellis-3 redistricting plan was posted on the day of the meeting in which it was approved. The public had virtually no advance notice of the plan, and thus, no opportunity to comment on it. People first learned of the plan when Ellis rolled it out in the meeting during which he, Garcia and Hidalgo approved it.

The lawsuit further alleges that:

  • Hidalgo, Ellis and Garcia planned the surprise in advance.
  • Their plan makes it impossible for Jack Cagle to get re-elected.
  • It will give Democrats a 4-1 supermajority.
  • Failure to timely post notice of the plan invalidates the vote on it.
  • In violating TOMA, Lina Hidalgo overstepped her authority and therefore does not enjoy governmental immunity.

A supermajority would give Hidalgo, Ellis and Garcia the power to shift flood-bond dollars around at will.

Radack filed his lawsuit on December 31st. The county clerk posted it on her website on Monday, January 3rd. The case landed in the 190th Court where Judge Beau Miller presides.

Hidalgo, Ellis and Christian Menafee, the County Attorney, issued public denials on Tuesday’s evening news. However, they have not yet filed a formal response to Radack’s lawsuit with the court.

Hidalgo Files Response to Cagle/Ramsey Suit Pending in Supreme Court

Commissioners Jack Cagle, Tom Ramsey and their supporters filed the first lawsuit. It is currently before the Texas Supreme Court. Their complaint focused on denial of voting rights for more than a million people. Judge Dedra Davis of the 270th District Court dismissed that lawsuit without explanation. The plaintiffs then directly filed for a writ of mandamus from the Supreme Court. Plaintiffs did not have time to go through the normal appeal process.

In that case, Hidalgo filed a 185-page response on December 30th to the plaintiffs’ charges. Hidalgo contends that:

  • The county did not violate voting rights because when you redistrict precincts with staggered terms, voting rights for some will always be delayed but not permanently denied.
  • The court has no way to evaluate whether Harris County went “way beyond” what was necessary to redistrict
  • Plaintiffs took too long to seek relief.

For the full text of Hidalgo’s response, click here.

Plaintiffs in this case also filed a request for an expedited ruling. To affect the next election without delaying it, a ruling would reportedly have to come sometime in January.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/5/2022

1590 Days since Hurricane Harvey

How to Find HCFCD’s Active Projects in Your Area

Ever wonder where your tax and flood-bond dollars go? Harris County Flood Control District shows all its active projects on one page. You can review those projects in tabular form or on a map. You can even click on links to learn more about each project. Or explore it in depth by going to its related “watershed” page.

Active maintenance (orange) and capital (purple) flood mitigation projects in Harris County as of 1/4/22 shown against backdrop of precinct boundaries adopted on 10/28/21. Purple = P1, Green = P2, Red = P3, Yellow = P4.

Paragon of Transparency

HCFCD’s Active Projects page is a paragon of government transparency. You can even switch out base maps to see where the projects fall in terms of the old or new precinct boundaries approved on October 28, 2021.

One side benefit of the two base maps is that they give you a clear, unambiguous view of the redistricting boundaries.

Zoom far enough in on the map and you can even see your street, home, and the drainage features around you (streams, channels, storm sewers, etc).

As of today HCFCD has 64 active projects.

  • 31 maintenance projects total $60 million
  • 33 capital projects total $232.4 million

In case you want to see how the map changes from time to time, you can even download a PDF, such as this one from December 2021. Save it for future comparison.

Monitoring Work in Progress

Physically seeing work in progress is difficult. Construction zones are dangerous and often fenced off or hidden behind trees. They’re also so large that seeing them from an entrance at ground level is almost impossible.

The good news: the projects almost always include hike and bike trails, like the one below, which you can enjoy upon completion.

Willow Water Hole
Willow Water Hole near South Post Oak and Highway 90. One part of a six compartment detention basin complex ringed by hike and bike trails.

However, if you want to monitor work in progress, your best bet is a drone.

Good News from Commissioners Court Today

Commissioner Tom Ramsey introduced a motion to affirm Commissioners’ intentions to complete all projects in the flood bond. Despite several previous attempts to cancel projects and change bond priorities, commissioners voted unanimously to complete the entire bond package. Ramsey will be the new commissioner for the Lake Houston Area if the Ellis-3 redistricting plan survives court challenges. See the sprawling red area on the map above.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/4/2022

1589 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Preserve At Woodridge Claims No Flood Zone; Shades of LJA?

The Preserve at Woodridge is a novel single-family-home rental development going in off Woodridge Parkway between St. Martha Church and Kingwood Park High School. As with Woodridge Village, on the other side of the high school, the developer claimed the property was in no known flood zone. Even though it’s just outside the pre-Atlas 14 flood zones for Ben’s Branch, those zones are based on 40% less rainfall than the current standard for the Kingwood Area.

The Developer’s plans show this note about floodplains on virtually every page. Atlas 14 was implemented in 2018.

A major drainage ditch also runs along one side of the development and contributes to flooding along Northpark Drive almost annually. I owned property on the other side of that ditch for 20 years and can attest to frequent flooding.

And even though runoff calculations are based on Atlas 14 estimates, those estimates are based on Conroe’s rainfall which gets about 10% less than Kingwood (48 vs. 53 inches).

The ditch in question was developed for what is now the high school. The earliest photo of it in Google Earth dates to 1995. Around 2008, the ditch was extended to handle drainage from Woodridge Forest. The developer’s plans do not specify the capacity of the ditch as far as I can see.

LJA Parallels?

LJA, the engineer for Woodridge Village a block east also claimed “no floodplains.” That claim turned out to be tragically wrong. There were flood plains. They just hadn’t been mapped, like the ditch in question. And LJA used pre-Atlas 14 data in its calculations.

Hundreds of homeowners next to Woodridge Village in Elm Grove, North Kingwood Forest, Sherwood Trails and Porter subsequently flooded twice in May and September of 2019. They wound up suing Perry Homes, its subsidiaries and contractors, including LJA. Those cases recently settled.

The area immediately south of the Preserve at Woodridge includes approximately 40 businesses along Northpark Drive, the high school, St. Martha’s school, two churches, and dozens of homes in North Woodland Hills.

Let’s hope the engineers got this one right. Claiming “no floodplains” based on pre-Atlas 14 data and an old ditch whose level of service has diminished over time does not inspire confidence. How do they know for sure it won’t flood? But that’s not the only worry.

Rental Homes As Small as Studio Apartments

Guefen, the developer says it plans to build 131 homes on the 17 acres you see below. But the detention pond takes up five acres. That makes about 11 homes per acre of usable land with about 5 feet between many homes. You can see how close they are in the photo below.

First foundations going in (lower left). Photo taken on 12/31/2021.
Reverse angle shot shows 5 acre detention pond on 17 acre development. Ditch in foreground joins Ben’s Branch north of Northpark Drive.
Foundation forms in NW corner of subdivision along Woodridge Parkway. See corresponding plans below. Note how three of these homes could fit in the back yard of the home in the upper right corner of the photo.
Five of the eight homes above will have access only by sidewalks, not streets.
The same holds true for most of the homes in the subdivision.

In case of an emergency, that firetruck may be parking 250 feet away from some homes. That’s almost the length of a football field.

According to RentCafe.com, the average size of an apartment in Houston is 881 square feet. These detached rental homes will range in size from 668 square feet to 1,255 square feet. At the low end of that range, the square footage is about that of most studio apartments. For those of you who have never lived in one, a studio apartment has one big common area that triples as a living room, bedroom, and kitchen. Only the bathroom has walls.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/3/22

1588 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Big Picture

It’s always nice to start the new year by looking at the big picture. And big pictures don’t get much bigger than this. The image below comes from NOAA’s Global Data Explorer. It shows sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic. Reds show areas with warmer than normal temperatures. Blues are cooler.

Sea surface temperature anomalies from 12/20/21 to 12/26/21. Source: NOAA.

Degrees of Variation

The dark red areas are a whopping 4-5 degrees Celsius above normal. The dark blues are 3-4 degrees Celsius below normal. It takes 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit to equal 1 degree Celsius. So in terms of the temperature scale that most people in the US use, that’s up to 9 degrees warmer and 7.2 degrees cooler – a 16.2 degree spread.

This helps to explain the record warm December we just had. Houston is in that band of red that stretches across the northern hemisphere. Also notice how red the Gulf of Mexico is.

According to the EPA, an increase in sea surface temperatures can lead to an increase in the amount of atmospheric water vapor over the oceans. “This water vapor feeds weather systems that produce precipitation, increasing the risk of heavy rain and snow.” And we just had extreme snowfalls from the Sierras to the Rockies.

Role of Ocean Currents

Ocean currents help distribute this moisture around the world. According to NOAA, “almost all rain that falls on land starts off in the ocean.”

“Ocean currents act much like a conveyor belt, transporting warm water and precipitation from the equator toward the poles and cold water from the poles back to the tropics,” says NOAA. “Thus, ocean currents regulate global climate, helping to counteract the uneven distribution of solar radiation reaching Earth’s surface. Without currents in the ocean, regional temperatures would be more extreme—super hot at the equator and frigid toward the poles—and much less of Earth’s land would be habitable.”

Cyclical Variation

Sea surface temperatures vary in cyclical, but irregular patterns (roughly every 3-6 years). Right now, we are under the influence of a La Niña pattern, that recurs every few years and can last as long as two years. This page on NOAA’s site explains what causes the changes. They often start with ocean currents veering off course for a period of time or stronger than normal trade winds.

The World Meteorological Association gives this La Niña an 80% chance of lasting through this spring before returning to normal (neutral) conditions.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 1/1/22

1586 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Top Stories of 2021 in Review

Below are my personal picks for the top flood-mitigation stories of 2021.

The Fight for Funding

In 2019, Commissioners Court established “equity” guidelines that prioritized projects in Low-to-Moderate Income watersheds. Then this year:

Still no word from HUD on a possible direct allocation of $750 million. We may hear in January.

To help you follow this story, I make quarterly FOIA requests for Harris County Flood Control District spending and post the analyses on a dedicated funding page.

Sand-Mining Best Management Practices

Activists led by the Lake Houston Area Flood Prevention Initiative and the Bayou Land Conservancy petitioned the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) to establish best management practices for sand mines in the San Jacinto watershed. We didn’t get everything we wanted, but we got a vast improvement over what we had. And the new BMPs may help reduce erosion that contributes to future floods in this area.

West Fork Sand Mine illustrates need for vegetative controls to reduce erosion.

Relentless Development

Fueled by low interest rates and flight from city crowds during Covid, suburban and rural development surged in 2021. Flood-mitigation felt like an afterthought in many developments. We saw that with Colony Ridge in Liberty County. Colony Ridge clearcut wetlands, paved over floodplains and ignored county regs designed to reduce erosion.

In the Kingwood Area, the Laurel Springs RV resort took advantage of a grandfathering clause in permitting to build a detention pond one-half the size of current requirements. These represent just two examples of many.

The Laurel Springs RV Resort got its detention pond approved one day before stiffer regs went into effect.

After Harvey, we saw how such practices made flooding worse. How soon we forget!

Houston Housing and Community Development Meltdown

Houston’s Housing and Community Development Department, which was responsible for distributing more than a billion dollars in Harvey disaster relief funds, came unglued again this year. Last year, it sued the Texas General Land Office to keep money it couldn’t give away. This year, the Department’s Director publicly denounced the Mayor of Houston for trying to steer multi-family housing subsidies to the Mayor’s former law partner. The Mayor claimed ignorance of the partner’s involvement and announced a City Attorney investigation which never materialized.

Meanwhile, flood victims were victimized a second time. Bureaucratic bungling denied aid to people who deserved it.

World War II And Lake Houston Gates

May 9, 2021, was 1349 days after Hurricane Harvey ravaged Texas and the Gulf Coast. That’s the number of days it took the US and its allies to win World War II. But during that time we’ve had few victories in the fight against future flooding in the Lake Houston Area with the exception of dredging, So far, we’ve mainly completed studies. And many of those are still in the works.

For instance, the City of Houston has been studying ways to increase the release capacity of the Lake Houston Dam. Right now, the release capacity is one-fifteenth that of the gates on Lake Conroe. That makes it difficult to shed water quickly before and during floods. FEMA gave the City money to study the problem, but is still finalizing recommendations. The City hopes to make an announcement in January.

Lawsuits

The Lake Conroe Association had its lawsuit against the SJRA thrown out of court…with prejudice. The LCA hoped to prohibit the SJRA’s policy of seasonal lake lowering, which was designed to help protect the Lake Houston Area until other flood mitigation efforts could be put in place.

The Texas Attorney General is still suing the Triple PG Sand Mine in Porter on behalf of the TCEQ. There has been little movement on the case in the last 18 months. The mine’s owner changed legal counsel in July 2020. A TCEQ representative says the AG has not given up. The two sides are still in discovery.

Approximately 1700 homeowners in the Lake Houston Area sued sand mines for contributing to flooding during Harvey. The cases were consolidated in the 281st Harris County District Court under Judge Sylvia Matthews. She recently set deadlines in the first half of next year for motions, depositions, joinder, expert witness testimony and more. The case is known as “Harvey Sand Litigation.”

Various lawsuits against the SJRA for flooding during Harvey are still working their way through the legal system.

Kingwood residents reached a settlement with Perry Homes, its subsidiaries and contractors this year over two floods that damaged hundreds of homes in Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest during 2019. The incidents had to do with development of Woodridge Village, just across the Harris/Montgomery County line.

Woodridge Village

Harris County Flood Control District purchased Woodridge Village from Perry Homes in February this year and hired a contractor to begin doubling the current floodwater-detention capacity on the site. When complete, the additional capacity will help protect homes in Elm Grove, North Kingwood Forest and downstream along Taylor Gully.

Expansion of Dredging

After three and a half years of dredging in the San Jacinto West Fork, dredging has now moved to the East Fork. State Representative Dan Huberty secured $50 million earlier this year to extend the dredging program to other inlets around Lake Houston in the future.

East Fork Dredging. Photographed in early December between Huffman and Royal Shores in Kingwood. Looking south toward Lake Houston.

Bens Branch and Taylor Gully Cleanouts

In Kingwood, HCFCD finished excavating both Bens Branch and Taylor Gully to help restore their conveyance. Through gradual sediment built up, both had been gradually reduced to a 2-year level of service in places. That means they would come out of their banks after a 2-year rain.

Final phase of Bens Branch maintenance between Kingwood Drive and Rocky Woods. Note Kingwood High School in upper right.

Subsidence

Years of fighting over subsidence between the Lone Star Groundwater Conservation District and Groundwater Management Area 14 came to a head earlier this year. LSGCD fought any mention of subsidence in Desired Future Conditions (DFCs) for Montgomery County. GMA-14 wanted to include it, but finally recommended allowing each groundwater conservation district to make a subsidence measure optional. Unlimited groundwater pumping in southern Montgomery County could tilt Lake Houston toward homes at the northern end of the lake. That’s because subsidence would be greater there than at the Lake Houston Dam by TWO FEET.

GMA-14 will take a final vote on January 5 on the final DFCs. You still have time to protest.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 12/31/2021

1585 Days since Hurricane Harvey