SJRA Seeks Public Input on Sediment Trap Proposal

The San Jacinto River Authority (SJRA) recently completed a 246-page conceptual design study, in partnership with the Harris County Flood Control District, that explored the feasibility of implementing sediment trapping facilities (“sand traps”). The purpose: to remove sediment from the West or East Fork of the San Jacinto River. The results and findings of this study have been documented in an engineering report entitled “San Jacinto River and Tributaries Sediment Removal and Sand Trap Development.” 

Prior to proceeding to preliminary engineering design and any subsequent project phases, SJRA is seeking public input on the proposed project alternatives detailed in the report. The full report, as well as a brief summary document, are located on SJRA’s Flood Management Division website. 

How to Provide Input or Ask Questions

Please submit input and questions via email to floodmanagementdivision@sjra.net. 

Deadline: No later than April 29, 2022

Caution: The full study is dated 1/7/22. But the “brief summary” is dated 3/9/22. Make sure you at least read the executive study of the full report as well as the brief summary. There are important differences.

Overview/Purpose

SJRA says the purpose of the sediment trap study was to assess the feasibility of implementing a pilot project to trap and remove sediment from the West OR East Fork of the San Jacinto. The study only assessed locations where one or more Aggregate Production Operations (APOs) could partner with the the SJRA. They restricted the study this way to reduce costs; the SJRA does not have a source of funding to clean out sand traps and would rely on sand miners.

Initial Concerns

The decisions to:

  • Define the study objective as sediment reduction, not damage reduction and…
  • Only consider locations near sand mines…

…give me mixed emotions about this project.

Pros

On one hand, I look at this and say, “It’s a pilot project. Try it and see if there’s a benefit.” Sediment IS a problem and they believe they can remove up to 100% of the annual sediment load (from the West Fork).

Cons

On the other hand, the study authors, Freese & Nichols (F&N) claimed (in the San Jacinto River Basin Master Drainage Study) that of all the sediment coming into Lake Houston, two thirds comes from Spring and Cypress Creeks while only 13% comes from the West Fork upstream of US59.

Perhaps that’s because they’re using model inputs from a sediment gage at I-45 located 8.5 miles upstream from most of the large West Fork sand mines (page 34, paragraph 3 of full study).

Also, in their discussion of downstream sedimentation mitigation (page 51, paragraph 3 of full study), F&N says that their evaluation was confined to areas where natural processes rather than breeches of sand mine ponds likely contributed to sediment deposition. To see how limiting that is, see the photos of sand mine breeches and their results in this post.

West Fork Mouth Bar
The “Mouth Bar,” a giant sand bar that blocked the West Fork of the San Jacinto, backing the river up into Kingwood and Humble. Thousands of homes and businesses flooded behind this blockage. The above-water portion has since been removed, but most of the underwater portion remains.

In the entire 246-page F&N study and the three-page summary, the word “damage” occurs only once…in relation to erosion damage, NOT flood damage.

It appears that F&N did not even look at creating sand traps where they were most needed, in the headwaters of Lake Houston, because of cost and logistical considerations. Yet the Army Corps, City of Houston, and State of Texas are spending $200 million to dredge that area. One wonders whether SJRA should have looked harder for partners to clean out the traps.

Finally, if sediment traps only work financially near sand mines, the “solution” will not work on other tributaries that F&N alleges contribute 5X more sediment than the West Fork. They just don’t have the sand mines that the West Fork has.

Nature of Proposed Solution

Five years after Harvey, we have a conceptual design and a recommended location: rock-lined channels cut through one or two point bars at the West Fork Hallett mine.

Page 8 of the F&N study shows this schematic of the recommended solution.

The shot below shows the same area in real life. To put the magnitude of the proposed solution into perspective, the solution would cover a little more than an acre. But sand mines like Hallett cover 20 square miles on the banks of the West Fork between US59 and I-45.

2021 photo of sand bar outsde Hallett mine that would have a narrow channel cut through it to trap sand.

My Biggest Fears

My biggest fears with the proposed pilot study are that it:

  1. Asks people to chose from a limited menu.
  2. Could divert attention from better solutions that would reduce flood risk faster in the headwaters of Lake Houston.
  3. Might make the public think the problem is solved.
  4. Could open the door to river mining and further destabilize the riverine environment.
  5. Is not a transferrable solution.

For a pilot study, that last point is troubling.

Also, F&N worries that removing too much sediment from the West Fork could create a “hungry-water” effect that increases erosion downstream. But they have no way of directly measuring how much sediment the West Fork transports. Or what percentage they would remove. That’s because they’re relying on a sediment gage upstream from the sand mines. This introduces an element of risk in the pilot study.

Recommendations Should Be Based on a Holistic Examination of Alternatives

Note lack of vegetation on this steep-sided, eroding bank of Hallett mine on West Fork in foreground.

Before moving forward with the pilot study, I suggest a more holistic examination of additional alternatives that might have a greater impact on reducing flood damage, not just sedimentation. Examples include, but are not limited to:

More on the sand trap proposal in coming days. In the meantime, please review the SJRA’s sediment trap proposal and forward your comments to the SJRA. I will also print thoughtful letters, both pro and con, from responsible parties. Send them to: https://reduceflooding.com/contact-us/.

Posted by Bob Rehak on March 27, 2022

1671 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

TCEQ Issues Notice of Enforcement to Laurel Springs RV Resort

After an unannounced investigation of the Laurel Springs RV Resort construction site on February 2, 2022, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) issued a Notice of Enforcement (NOE) Letter to the contractor, Higbie Ventures of Texas, Inc. The TCEQ investigation found Higbie:

  • Failed to maintain Best Management Practices in effective operation condition
  • Had not maintained the construction site entrance
  • Did not protect stormwater inlets
  • Damaged erosion controls
  • Improperly installed erosion controls
  • Did not install erosion controls as prescribed in the Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan along the southern and western perimeters
  • Let sediment accumulations travel offsite unimpeded onto neighboring property for approximately 158 yards
  • Trenched the southern berm of its detention pond, letting stormwater escape onto neighboring property, a non-compliant discharge
  • Violated requirements of their Construction General Permit
  • Failed to remove sediment accumulations often enough to minimize further negative effect

The investigator felt the non-compliant discharge in late January warranted enforcement action. The TCEQ then issued a Notice of Enforcement Letter (NOE) to “facilitate” compliance.

64-Page Report Brims With Photos Showing Violations

The 64-page TCEQ report meticulously documents the complaints with time-stamped photographs.

The TCEQ investigator, Kyle Linville, required documentation showing the contractor had remedied all violations by February 7. But on February 14, Linville noted that several violations remained outstanding, including failure to:

  • Maintain Best Management Practices in effective operating condition
  • Install sediment controls on the southern boundary of the site
  • Remove sediment accumulations often enough to minimize further negative effects.

Linville’s observations largely match mine and those of nearby residents who have communicated with me re: issues at the controversial construction site. Strangely, a City of Houston investigation found no problem, triggering two more investigations, but the City has not yet released the results of those.

Contractor Apparently Still Not Fully in Compliance

Since the TCEQ issued its notice of enforcement letter, most but not all of the violations have been corrected. However, Higbie still has not installed silt fencing along the western perimeter. And when I went by there today, trucks had once again turned Laurel Springs Lane into a muddy mess.

Photo taken on 2/2/22 from TCEQ report showing erosion of southern wall of detention pond.
Sediment eroded into Edgewater Park for approximately 158 yards. Another photo from TCEQ report.
More sediment farther into park. Another photo from TCEQ report.
Note lack of silt fencing along western perimeter (right), which had been mentioned in TCEQ complaint dated 2/2/22. Photo taken 3/24/22, six weeks after compliance deadline.

Contractor Claims Re: Unauthorized Discharge

The contractor admitted that he discharged stormwater into Edgewater Park without authorization. However, he claimed that it was necessary to begin installing pumps that would discharge stormwater into the Lakewood Cove Storm Sewer System. The contractor claimed that standing water in the detention pond had infiltrated the soil in the pond wall. That made the pond wall so unstable that heavy equipment could not operate safely on the wall, said the contractor, in his response to the TCEQ.

However, photos taken on the day of the trenching, 1/29/22, show heavy equipment already operating on the wall and the pump housing already partially installed.

Photo taken 1/29/22 shows contractor draining pond as heavy equipment operates elsewhere on pond wall.

On page 54 of the report, the contractor claims he dug the trench on 1/30/22, not 1/29.

He also admits that he placed 8″ pipe in the wall, but claims he removed it “the next day” on “1/31/21.” That would have been 10 months before the site was even cleared. But assuming he meant 1/31/22, the claim doesn’t match what I photographed that day. I photographed the contractor covering up pipe, not removing it. See below.

One photo from a sequence taken on 1/31/2022 that shows contractor pulling dirt into trench and spreading it over pipes.

Is he claiming that he filled in the whole trench only to redig it on the same day and remove the pipe? That would have been amazingly inefficient. However, it would help explain some of the contractor’s failures. In the last 20 years, eight of Higbie’s 13 entities in Texas have gone out of business. He lost six of the eight to tax forfeitures.

Trust But Verify

Mr. Linville produced an excellent and thorough report of his investigation. But I hope he explores some of Higbie’s claims further without just taking Higbie’s word that he complied. As auditors say, “Trust but verify.” Did the contractor really remove the pipe? Did he install invisible silt fence on the western perimeter? Why is Higbie still pumping water out of the pond with portable pumps almost two months after installing the housing for permanent pumps.

We should never forget how excess sedimentation contributed to the flooding of thousands of homes along the West Fork during Harvey.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/26/22

1670 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Review: In Too Deep – Class and Mothering in a Flooded Community

Rachel Tolbert Kimbro, a professor of sociology at Rice, has produced the rarest of commodities: an easily readable book, rich with academic value. In Too Deep: Class and Mothering in a Flooded Community is the story of 36 upper middle-class mothers on Houston’s southwest side before, during, and after Hurricane Harvey. It’s about:

  • Why they chose the neighborhood they live in – despite knowledge of prior floods
  • Their struggle to survive during Harvey
  • The fight to recover after the storm – financially, physically and psychologically – while holding their families together
  • Why most chose to stay instead of move, despite repeated floods.

Common Themes

Professor Rachel Tolbert Kimbro, Rice University Photo.

Professor Kimbro interviewed the women extensively over the course of several years and found common themes between their stories. Among them: the struggle to protect their children, neighborhood, school, and friendships. The values they found in their neighborhood – affordability, diversity, walkability, a good school, safety, and a supportive network of neighbors – brought them together. And fear of losing those values after the flood kept them from moving elsewhere. Sound familiar? You could substitute “proximity to nature” for “proximity to museums” and understand why so many flood victims chose to stay in the Lake Houston Area after Harvey.

Qualitative Research Yields Insights

For In Too Deep, Kimbro used structured qualitative research, not quantitative. The result is a moving narrative, replete with insight and pathos. It mirrors, in a different part of Houston, many of the interviews I have done in the Lake Houston Area since Harvey.

Those who flooded will find painful memories and, ultimately, a sense of kinship that comes from a recognition of their shared struggles. Kimbro’s description of rescues by kayak; of several families crowding into one upstairs room with their pets; of struggles with contractors and adjusters; and of families sleeping on air mattresses for more than a year will bring many people to tears.

Policy makers will gain insights into what makes buyouts so difficult despite such difficulties. The book explains why many people in this neighborhood wanted to stay put after Harvey despite prior, severe flooding during the Tax and Memorial Day storms.

Kimbro’s editorial decision to focus only on women in one area and from one social class limits her research somewhat. But what it loses in breadth, it gains in depth. There is little academic research into how upper middle-class moms cope with disasters. Most research on flooding focuses on less affluent, communities of color.

Spoiler Alert

Professor Kimbro recreated the Harvey experience completely and faithfully from the standpoint of her interviewees. Women in the Lake Houston Area will likely identify with the struggles Kimbro’s subjects faced. Spoiler alert: keep a box of tissues handy when you read this book.

Kimbro changed women’s names and even the name of their neighborhood to protect their privacy and confidentiality. Many of the women felt almost violated from having neighbors and contractors traipse through the private spaces in their homes (bedrooms, bathrooms, etc.) to rip out wallboard, tile, and carpet. I just wish she had mentioned the fictitious neighborhood name in the introduction, not at the end.

Throughout the book, she refers to the neighborhood as “Bayou Oaks” and the school that the children go to as “Bayou Oaks Elementary.”

I wanted so much to photograph this neighborhood that I Googled the names to find their locations. I also tried to look them up in multiple map apps and Google Earth. No joy! There is no Bayou Oaks Elementary in the Houston ISD. And there is no Bayou Oaks where she described it.

As a consequence, at times I wondered how real In Too Deep was. But it is very real.

Suggestion for Future Research

One thing struck me as odd though. Unless I missed it on first reading, none of the women focused on political action (lobbying for flood mitigation) as a solution to their flood woes. None of these mothers turned into political activists lobbying for flood mitigation dollars – despite their fear of future floods.

In contrast, less affluent, predominantly minority communities seize headlines and more dollars every week. Why the difference? Is it financial desperation? Lack of alternatives? Or something cultural?

This is certainly an area for future investigation. And I hope Kimbro takes it up. She’s both a talented researcher and storyteller. We have a lot to learn from her.

In Too Deep comes in paperback, hardbound and digital editions. I purchased the Kindle edition from Amazon. I highly recommend it.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/25/2022

1669 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Oakhurst Getting New Neighbor: Land Cleared for Peppervine

Note: Updated 3/26/22 to correct drainage path from Peppervine to West Fork instead of Bens Branch.

Centex Homes, an affiliate of Pulte Homes, has cleared land for a new 47-acre development in Porter just north of Oakhurst. The developer will call the new development Peppervine and is targeting first-time homebuyers and young, budget-conscious homebuyers.

Few Details Available Yet About Homes

Centex doesn’t give many details about the homes yet. The company’s website contains only one page of high-level information. However, it does say that the builder will offer both one- and two-story homes. Their website shows a fairly traditional style that would fit in well with most homes in the Kingwood Area.

Entrance to Peppervine. Looking east toward US59. As with Oakhurst to the south/right, a large stand of trees will shield residents from freeway noise.

However, the only other trees are in the northwest corner of the new subdivision to help shield residents from an RV park.

Looking SE toward 59. A small stand of trees will shield residents from an RV park (lower left). Oakhurst drainage ditch in lower right. Detention pond empties into ditch that cuts through upper right of frame.

Impact on Drainage

Of course, ReduceFlooding readers are concerned about the impact on drainage. While regrettable, the loss of more trees will be at least partially offset by a fairly large detention pond that occupies approximately 20% of the site. See above.

The Montgomery County Appraisal District shows the development, which comprises approximately 1.7 million square feet will have a detention pond that covers approximately 324,000 square feet.

Part of property detail from Montgomery County Appraisal District website.
Location of Peppervine from Montgomery County Appraisal District Website. Slightly north of Northpark Drive and West of US59.

The site will use Oakhurst’s drainage ditch which connects to the headwaters of Bens Branch. See Google Earth Pro image below.

Path of Drainage to West Fork

Peppervine in rectangle will drain through the Oakhurst drainage ditch to West Fork San Jacinto. Note even bigger area slated for development across freeway. It will drain into Bens Branch.
Looking SE. Pepperdine’s detention pond will connect to the small drainage ditch in the upper right.
Looking NE. The small drainage ditch will connect to Oakhurst’s larger ditch (lower left).
Looking north. The site’s detention pond drains into the ditch in the foreground which connects to the Oakhurst Ditch on the left.

Homes Built Above Roads

Homebuyers will be pleased that the homes will be built up from the roadways.

Homes will be elevated above the roads, always a good practice.

Sizable Detention Pond Should Help Allay Concerns

During Harvey and Imelda, multiple homes flooded in Oakhurst. I’m sure Oakhurst residents must have concerns about yet another subdivision adding even more runoff to the ditches and stream. The good news here, though, is that Montgomery County required a rather sizable detention pond in this instance. The developer did not get to avoid detention with a beat-the-peak survey.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/24/2022

1668 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Laurel Springs RV Resort Turns Into Giant Mud Bath

After a 2 inch rain on 3/22/22, the construction site at the Laurel Springs RV Resort turned into a giant mud bath, now being pumped into the Lakewood Cove storm sewer system. The whole point of the Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan approved by the TCEQ is to prevent that.

Is This Part of A Bigger Marketing Plan?

Large ponds of muddy water covered the site from north to south and east to west, a tribute to the drainage still not installed after five months of site work. It makes one wonder whether the contractor’s tardiness is part of a marketing ploy.

Do they plan to market this RV resort as a mud bath/spa? Will they offer a special pit for ladies’ mud wrestling on WWF nights? Do they plan to turn part of the site into an all-weather ATV track? Will they rent this place out to kindergarten class reunions? Or will this be a practice range for politicians who want to learn how to sling mud? There’s just no telling. The secretive owners still have not divulged their marketing plans with the local residents.

Pictures Taken After 2″ Rain

Regardless, they have conspired with Mother Nature to create a world-class mud bath, as the pictures below show. I took the pictures below the morning after the gage at the West Fork and 59 recorded a two-inch rain.

Looking north toward entrance on right.
The ponds above the detention pond.
Let’s bring in some more mud. Note dirt piles at top of frame.
ATV terrain, northern part of site.
There’s nothing like mud to slow down work on a construction site. That’s why this must be intentional. Ooops. What happened to those silt fences on the west?
The creative approach to construction.
Even though they’ve installed a drain, they still haven’t installed pumps.

They started pumping this pond into the Lakewood Cove storm sewer system today. So much for keeping mud out of the sewers. That’s a major part of the Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan approved by the TCEQ.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/23/2022

1667 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Whew! Dodged the Worst.

After at least three days of warnings, dozens of tornados swept through Texas last night, injuring approximately 30 people and leaving tens of thousands without power. Luckily for the Lake Houston Area, however, we dodged the worst of the storms.

Spectacular Light and Sound Show in Lake Houston Area

Line after line of thunderstorms swept north through Texas last night and this morning as the front pushed toward the east. Below is a radar image of the one that raked over Kingwood shortly before 7 AM this morning. The light show was spectacular. Thunder seemed to merge into one long, half-hour crescendo. Before the boom from one lightning strike could fade, another would hit. The sky sounded like the William Tell Overture. The lightning, thunder and incessant wailing of the alerts from my weather radio left me breathless and sleepless.

RadarScope Pro Image at 6:48 AM on 3/22/22. Note the 11 “Watch” and “Warning” alerts in the upper right corner!

When the sky cleared, I ventured out to survey the damage, but saw little. The storm blew through so quickly that far less rain fell than predicted. Forecasters had talked about stalled supercells dropping up to 7″ as we saw in January. Those never materialized, at least not in the Lake Houston Area.

Official Rainfall Totals Fall Short of Predictions

The highest rainfall total at an official gage was 2.44 inches at the West Lake Houston Parkway bridge. Two gages north of Lake Conroe reported more than 3 inches. Most other gages recorded between 1 and 2 inches, far less than the widespread 2″-4″ predicted with isolated totals exceeding 7″.

24 hour rainfall totals from the storm on 3/21 – 3/22/22. Most of the rain fell within an hour.

By 8:30 AM, Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner reported that the squall line was moving off to the east.

“Rainfall amounts of 1.0-2.0 inches in 15-30 minutes with this line quickly led to street flooding,” said Lindner. Most storm sewers can handle only 1.0-2.0 inches per hour.

All Channels and Streams within Banks

At 3 PM, the Harris County Flood Warning System shows that all creeks and bayous are within their banks. Lindner expects no flooding, but cautions that we need to watch the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto as runoff works its way south from harder hit areas to the north.

Harris County Flood Warning System Channel Status as of 3PM Tuesday afternoon.

Photos of Kingwood-Area Streams

Photos of local channels confirmed the Kingwood Diversion Ditch, Ben’s Branch and Taylor Gully were up, but not out of their banks.

Taylor Gully at top of frame where it leaves Woodridge Village detention ponds (foreground) north of Elm Grove.
Looking south at the Kingwood Diversion Ditch where it takes water out of Ben’s Branch just south of St. Martha Church. North Park Drive cuts through the frame from left to right.
Looking south at bens Branch where it crosses under Kingwood Drive.

2-Year Rain

Comparing the rainfall amounts to an Atlas-14 chart of annual exceedance probabilities shows that a 2.5 inch rain, in about an hour, qualifies as a 2-year storm.

atlas 14 rainfall probabilities
atlas 14 rainfall probabilities

It made a pretty rude wake up call on Mother Nature’s part.

Experts Still Assessing Tornado Damage

Several National Weather Service assessment teams will fan out across the region today, surveying the damage from multiple tornados.

According to NBC, “Nocturnal tornadoes are two and a half times more deadly than their daytime counterparts largely in part to people being asleep and not having a way to get woken up by warnings.”

Lakes Near Normal

Even though Lake Houston had been lowered by a foot, it was back to within 3 inches of normal within 7 hours. The SJRA did not lower Lake Conroe before the storm. It is one half foot above its normal level as of 3:30 PM.

All things considered, we dodged the bullet with this one, especially given the buildup. Had the storm moved a little slower, had supercells parked on top of us as they did in January, had a tornado dropped out of the sky as it did elsewhere, this could have been a much different story.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/22/22

1665 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Flood Watch Starting 7PM Tonight

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, has released another update on the approaching storm. Not much has changed since last night except that:

Here’s where things stand as of noon on Monday, 3/21/2022.

Severe Weather Risk from Tonight into Early Tuesday.

Gulf moisture quickly returned to the region overnight. Scattered light showers are moving quickly from south to north. An upper level storm system is approaching from West Texas with strong lift ahead of it. Conditions will favor strong to severe thunderstorms in our area by mid to late afternoon over the warm air mass.

All of north Houston falls into the “enhanced risk” area for severe weather tonight. Updated at mid-day.

All of north Houston falls into the “enhanced risk” area for severe weather tonight.

The National Weather Service does not assign a mathematical probability to the definition of Enhanced Risk, but note that it is the mid-point (3) on a 5-point scale.

Tornados may form, especially in any supercells that may form in this area. The Brazos Valley area will see the highest tornado threat, according to Lindner. But the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center extends the area of 10% risk to the entire north and northeast Houston area. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible with these storms.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) gives a large part of Texas a 10% chance for tornadoes tonight. An even higher risk area is NW of Houston.

The SPC also gives a 30% chance of large hail and damaging winds to west, north and northeast Houston.

The worst large-hail probabilities are west of us, but our area still has a 30% probability.

Severe Threat Gives Way to Heavy Rainfall Threat During Night

According to Lindner, the severe threat will gradually transition to a heavy rainfall threat during the night as the pre-frontal trough slows over the Houston area. Formation of a line or two of training thunderstorms will be possible. Models point toward the US 59 corridor northeast of Houston and about 40 miles to the northwest as the most likely area of cell training.

The red area indicates a 40% chance of excessive rainfall. It includes areas from the northwest side of Houston east to roughly US59 and the Lake Houston Area. Updated 7:30am.

Lindner predicts rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches north of I-10 with isolated totals upwards of 6-7 inches. South of I-10, amounts of 1-2 inches look most likely. Given moisture levels, hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour will be possible. Street flooding in urban areas is currently the greatest threat and the Tuesday morning commute may be impacted.

Runoff, River and Stream Report

While grounds are generally dry over the area, expected rainfall rates in short duration will generate rapid run-off. Rises on all creeks and bayous are expected tonight.

HCFCD modeled various contingency forecasts yesterday afternoon with different rainfall durations and amounts to see how area bayous and creeks would respond.

Most of the creeks and bayous will be able to handle 4-5 inches of rainfall in a 4-6 hour period or longer. Should parts of the area realize the higher isolated totals of 6-7 inches, there would likely be some concerns for channels reaching bankfull.

While uncertainty still exists on exactly where training lines will form, Lindner believes watersheds on the northern and northeastern sides of Harris County will be at greatest risk. He named:

  • Cedar Bayou
  • Luce Bayou
  • East and West Forks of the San Jacinto River
  • Cypress Creek
  • Spring Creek
  • Greens Bayou
  • Halls Bayou
  • Little Cypress Creek
  • Willow Creek

These watersheds will likely see some of the higher rainfall amounts and responses.

To view real-time stream levels and inundation reports, visit the Harris County Flood Warning System and click on a gage near you. Stay home tonight. Don’t roam. Let your fingers do the slogging.

Posted by Bob Rehak at 12:30 PM on 3/21/22

1665 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Severe Weather Threat Increasing for Tomorrow, Up to 7″ Now Possible

Severe Weather, Flash Flood Likelihood Increasing for Monday Afternoon into Early Tuesday

Updated at 7:30 PM:

According to Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist, a powerful storm will move into Texas over the next 24 hours bringing multiple hazards to the area. The chances of severe weather and heavy rainfall by Monday afternoon and evening continue to increase. They are also expanding over a wider area. Since the original post, Harris County’s Meteorologist, Jeff Lindner has raised concerns about rises on the San Jacinto River West and East Forks to flood stage over the next few days. Rises on other creeks and bayous in Harris County also look likely, especially where we experience cell training and higher rainfall totals. Lindner advises to monitor weather closely on Monday and Monday night.

Outlook tomorrow for severe weather from the NWS Storm Prediction Center.

Higher Likelihood of Severe Weather Including Tornados Starting Monday Afternoon

There were some doubts yesterday about the likelihood for supercells to develop. But as we get closer to the storm’s arrival and certainty increases, supercell formation looks increasingly likely. “All severe modes will be in play including tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds,” says Lindner. “There could be a few strong tornadoes, especially for locations north of I-10.” Yesterday, the main likelihood was north of SH105.

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has expanded the enhanced risk (3 out of 5) outline to include more of Southeast Texas. The severe threat will begin in the mid-afternoon hours on Monday and continue into the late evening hours.

6-7 Inches, Flash Flooding Possible 

While the heaviest rainfall will likely occur over North Texas, the potential for high-precipitation supercells to develop and train across Southeast Texas is increasing for Monday afternoon and evening. As the front slows over Southeast Texas Monday night, Lindner expects the severe threat to gradually shift toward heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding throughout the night.

The greatest threat will generally be along and north of I-10. A slow-moving line of supercells will raise the flash-flood threat. If you get caught under one that’s training across your area as we saw back in January, be prepared.

Lindner has virtually doubled his rainfall predictions since yesterday. Instead of widespread 0.5-2 inches across the area, he now sees widespread 3-4 inches. And whereas yesterday he saw isolated rainfall totals up to 4 inches, today he estimates up to 6-7 inches.

Hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches will be possible leading to rapid onset flash flooding over urban areas. Street flooding will be the primary threat, but under corridors of excessive rainfall, significant rises on creeks and bayous will be possible.

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

In an update at 7:30 PM Sunday night, Lindner specifically mentioned the possibility of the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto rising to flood stage if we receive the higher rainfall totals in the forecast.

The NWS Weather Prediction Center has upgraded the area north of the I-10 corridor to a moderate risk for flash flooding.

National Weather Service outlook tomorrow for excessive rainfall.

Monday afternoon and evening will be active over the area. So have multiple ways to receive warnings. Make sure you have fresh batteries in your weather radio and flashlights; it could be a long night.

Putting Forecast in Perspective

To put this in perspective:

  • The supercells that spawned tornadoes over Kingwood in January dumped approximately 5 inches of rain. I talked with a lady on Facebook this morning whose home was destroyed by a tornado in that storm. She said she received warnings seconds before the tornado struck. She barely had enough time to get to an interior hallway before her home started crumbling around her.
  • The May 7th, 2019, storm that flooded more than 200 homes in Elm Grove dumped 7 inches of rain. But less than 20% of the floodwater detention capacity on Woodridge Village had been built at that point.
  • The City announced at 5:15 this afternoon that it will lower Lake Houston by 1 foot starting tonight. A forecast greater than 3 inches triggers the Lake Houston lowering protocol.

How To Get Warnings

NOAA broadcasts warnings on weather radio in a continuous loop during emergencies.

The National Weather Service lets you sign up for watches and warnings for your address.

Harris County’s Flood Warning System also lets you sign up to receive rainfall or flooding alerts for your location. The site also contains maps that show real-time rainfall, and river-channel monitoring and forecasting at gages throughout the region.

USGS has a web app called Water On the Go that shows water elevations at flood gages wherever you go in Texas.

Harris County Flood Control District’s Storm Center can connect you to a wide variety of preparedness articles and ways to summon help in an emergency.

A number of companies offer good apps for cell phones that offer warnings. I especially like one called Dark Skies that bills itself as “hyper-local” weather. It frequently tells me to the minute when a storm will arrive at my exact location…wherever I am.

You can also find links to dozens of other weather related apps and sites on my Links Page. Check them out before the storm arrives. You never know when a storm will knock out a web site, a cell tower, or power. So be prepared with multiple backups.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/20/2022 based on input from the NWS, HCFCD and City of Houston

1664 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Severe Weather Predicted Next Monday into Tuesday

I received an email from Jeff Lindner, Harris County’s meteorologist, around 1PM today that warned of possible severe weather from next Monday afternoon into early Tuesday Morning. As I explored it more, I also came across a fascinating academic study about the communication of weather risk that you may want to share with friends and relatives. One of the key findings: mobile home owners may need more response time than typical tornado warnings provide.

Possible Tornados, Hail, Damaging Winds, Street Flooding Early Next Week

“All severe modes will be in play Monday afternoon and evening including tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. The tornado threat appears highest north of HWY 105. The severe threat will be lowest near the coast and around Matagorda Bay,” said Lindner. “Heavy rainfall is also becoming an increasing concern.”

While most models show from one half to two inches of rain around Bush Intercontinental Airport, one model predicts four inches. Lindner predicts 1-2 inches of widespread rain north of I-10 with isolated totals of 3-4 inches possible. South of I-10 rainfall amounts of .50-1.0 inch will be possible.

“Given the dry grounds in place, some of this rainfall will soak in,” says Lindner. “But potential for high hourly rainfall rates poses an urban street flooding threat.” In other words, rain may fall faster than it can soak in or drain off, and then collect in streets.

NWS Cites Conditions Favorable for Supercell Formation

The National Weather Services Storm Prediction Center cites atmospheric conditions favorable to the formation of supercells, such as those that tracked across Harris County in January. Along with these supercells, they discuss the increasing potential for large hail and tornados Monday afternoon.

The Intersection of Weather and Communications

The NWS Storm Prediction Center contains a wealth of information for weather aficionados including academic publications on meteorology. Mindful of how a January tornado struck Kingwood at 1:30AM and also how the Lake Conroe release during Harvey arrived in the middle of the night, the following study caught my eye:

All researchers work in Norman, Oklahoma. They studied what time of day the public was least confident about receiving and responding to tornado warnings. Answer: between midnight and 4:00AM. Not a big surprise there. Most people are sleeping then. But the authors also studied several related questions:

  • Where do most overnight tornados take place?
  • Who is most at risk?
  • How and when can you best communicate that risk to protect lives?
Percent “very” or “extremely” confident in their ability to respond to a tornado warning by time of day. Shading indicates the 95% confidence level.

Findings

The authors found the southeastern portion of the US most susceptible to nocturnal tornadoes. East Texas is on the edge of the highest risk area. They also found that:

  • People’s confidence in their ability to receive warnings is lowest when the risk is highest for these storms.
  • The Southeast has a high rate of mobile home ownership, but mobile home owners don’t always perceive that they have higher risk, a perception that makes them especially vulnerable to tragic outcomes during nocturnal tornado events.
  • The number of weather resources that an individual had access to affected weather awareness and preparedness more than any demographic characteristics.
  • Forecasters and communicators should continue to emphasize the use of multiple forms of communication. They suggest “weather radios, cell phone apps, Wireless Emergency Alerts, and other forms of passive notification systems. Increased use of these tools will ultimately increase the likelihood of someone receiving warning information while they are asleep or otherwise occupied.”
  • The challenges of nocturnal tornadoes cannot be addressed if residents do not receive forecasts or warnings in the first place.
  • People will take action not just on forecasts, but their personal perception of risk. More communication about the degree of risk may help people make better decisions.
  • Forecasters should communicate the degree of risk before 10PM so that people can prepare severe weather plans before they go to sleep.
  • People in mobile housing need more response time than typical tornado warnings provide.

These findings should help inform forecasters and emergency managers about communities that need more time to respond to overnight tornado events. In the meantime, change the battery in that old weather radio! It’s springtime in Texas.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/19/2022

1663 Days since Hurricane Harvey

  

 

HUD Approves $750 Million to Harris County for Flood Mitigation

Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) approved the Texas General Land Office’s (GLO) amended plan for Community Development Block Grant Mitigation (CDBG-MIT). The amended plan allocates $750 million in funding for Harris County and an $488 million to the Houston-Galveston Area Council for additional mitigation projects in the region. The funds allocated to the county should now mean that the 2018 flood bond is fully funded, if numbers provided last month on partner funding to date are accurate.

George P. Bush Quote on Process

According to a press release issued by the GLO at 7PM, 3/18/22, “Ensuring Texans receive disaster recovery and mitigation funding in a timely manner to recover from Hurricane Harvey has always been my top priority,” said GLO Commissioner Bush. “The Biden Administration’s politically weaponized Department of Urban Development and Housing has forced us to fight through mazes of red tape to secure this direct allocation for Houstonians. I will continue to fight to send money to Texans as quickly as possible. The $750 million allocation will go directly to Harris County for projects that help mitigate future flooding events, creating a stronger more resilient Texas.”

George P. Bush, Commissioner, Texas General Land Office, 2019 photo

$1.138 Billion Total

HUD’s approval of the latest Harvey Action Plan brings the total infrastructure and mitigation investments in Harris County to more than $1.1 billion. HUD’s approval of the GLO’s plan to provide $750,000,000 to Harris County is in addition to HUD’s direct allocation of $61,884,000 to the City of Houston, plus $117,213,862.96 in CDBG-MIT awards for Harris County projects, plus $209,221,800 in infrastructure funds from CDBG-DR, equals $1,138,319,662.96 in total investment in projects within Harris County. Additionally, H-GAC continues to develop its method of distribution on more than $488 million for mitigation projects within the greater Houston region.

Bush first requested a direct allocation for Harris County in May of 2021 after the county received very little money from the first round of competition for HUD. A direct allocation would have allowed Harris County to work directly with HUD and taken the GLO out of the loop. However, HUD reportedly insisted that the GLO remain involved. Subsequently, the GLO developed a 650-page action plan for the $750 million. However, HUD found it insufficient. As of early this week, the action plan exceeded 1000 pages, according to a GLO spokesperson. That apparently provided HUD what it needed. HUD notified the GLO in a letter received after 5PM today.

Method of Distribution Must Still be Developed

However, Harris County won’t get all the money immediately.

Since last November, H-GAC has been developing something called a MOD (Method of Distribution) for its allocation. However, according to the GLO, because of the expense involved, Harris County has delayed developing its MOD until the the award was approved by HUD.

Harris County’s next step will be to develop its MOD which describes where the money will go, how it will be used, and who will get it. GLO will review that and forward it to HUD. After HUD approves the MOD, HUD still won’t write a check for $750 million to the county. The money will be reimbursed to the county in batches as it is spent on approved projects.

Flood Bond Close to Fully Funded Even without Resilience Trust

Still, this will go a long way toward fulfilling the potential shortfall in partner funding for the Harris County Flood Bond. Of the original $5 billion bond, half is being paid for by Harris County taxpayers. The County hoped to get local, state, and federal partners to fund the other half.

Last July, when it looked like the $750 million might not materialize, Harris County Commissioners approved a Flood Resilience Trust that committed $833 million from the Toll Road Authority and other Harris County sources of funding. That, along with partner funding already committed, was enough to keep construction of Harris County Flood Bond projects rolling through approximately 2026.

From a presentation to the Harris County Community Flood Resilience Task Force in February 2022.

Today’s approval should make the flood bond fully funded if the numbers above are accurate. That should come as good news for all citizens who have been fighting for limited dollars. With money in the trust, this should accelerate mitigation projects throughout the county. And even fund some not identified in the original bond!

Posted by Bob Rehak on 3/18/2022

1662 Days since Hurricane Harvey