Bad Name? “Docks” Center Still Mostly Empty

Almost three years after completion, Lovett Commercial’s 28,000 square foot retail center named Kingwood Docks still has only two small tenants. Both are fitness oriented: StretchLab and YogaSix. Together they occupy only about 3,500 square feet.

Unfortunately, the rest of the center remains vacant despite a resurgence of retail leasing in the Kingwood Town Center area.

Empty storefronts, three years after completion. Photographed 9/8/2022.
Totally empty Kingwood Docks photographed on 3/1/2021.

Rentable space comprises just 7.67% of the property shown above.

Despite the size of the detention basin, this whole area flooded badly during Harvey.

Torchy’s Tacos, about a block west, painted the high-water mark during Harvey about 7 feet high on its walls.

And the Memorial Hermann Convenient Care Center next door flooded just days before its scheduled grand opening in 2017. That delayed the opening 14 months for repairs!

What’s in a Name?

Was naming this center “The Docks” a wise move?

Lovett’s brochure and website emphasizes the HEIGHT of docks. Perhaps they thought that would reassure people concerned about flooding.

But the word “Docks” also conjures up waterfront images, reinforced by the proximity of the property to a drainage ditch, a large detention basin, and memories of Harvey. Probably not the best association!

And many remember that their construction was plagued by wet weather.

Who Would Make Ideal Tenants for this Space?

I wasn’t surprised to see that the first two tenants both had a fitness theme. Yoga mats are a lot cheaper to replace than MRI and CAT-scan machines.

That said, many renters want exclusivity within a shopping center; more fitness businesses may not prosper in such close proximity. The YMCA is just three blocks south. And a fitness chain is rumored to be moving into the large retail center one block south next to the new ACE Hardware.

Lovett originally envisioned this center as a strip of restaurants. And their latest brochure, updated in March 2022, indicates they still hope to achieve that. It shows Asian, pizza, breakfast, and TexMex restaurants in remaining spaces.

New Name Needed

Frankly, I wish Lovett hadn’t built so close to major flood risk. Having said that, I hope they can rent the space and eliminate the ghost-town look. The trick may be finding businesses, like yoga, with minimal equipment that would minimize flood damage if it happens.

Having spent 50 years in marketing, I would advise Lovett to ditch their “Docks” name. They don’t have to rename it Mount Kingwood. But please lose the waterfront association. How about something like “The Food ‘n Fitness Center”? Eat up and slim down. Now, that sounds like fun!

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/9/22

1837 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Major Kingwood Shopping Center Almost Back

Hurricane Harvey flooded 100 percent of all the businesses in Kingwood Town Center. Recovery has been a long, hard road. Some retailers threw in the towel. Others hung on by their nails. The shopping center on the northwest side of Kingwood Drive and West Lake Houston Parkway was one of the hardest hit – caught between rising waters from Lake Houston and descending waters from Bens Branch. For several years, the entire center looked like a ghost town.

Kingwood Town Center Old H-E-B
In this shot on the shopping center taken in November 2020, more than 30 stores were vacant.

Finally, the owner sold it to a buyer with deeper pockets who could make needed repairs.

Flood Mitigation Efforts Bolster Confidence

While that was happening, the Army Corps finished dredging the West Fork. Harris County Flood Control District completed a major maintenance project to restore the conveyance of Bens Branch. And the City cleared sediment from under the Kingwood Drive bridge over Bens Branch, eliminating a major bottleneck on the creek.

City of Houston crews remove sediment from under Kingwood Drive Bridge over Bens Branch by shopping center.

The remediation efforts seem to have bolstered confidence and encouraged the return of retailers.

Pardon Their Dust

For the last two years, loyal customers had to dodge construction as the shopping center got a facelift. But last month, the construction trailer and fencing disappeared. Today, I counted only four vacancies in the main part of the shopping center. And workmen are busy doing interior buildout on some of those.

Ghost-Town Look Gone

The ghost-town look is gone…replaced by pristine exteriors, new signage, and fresh landscaping. It will only be a matter of time before the remaining spaces refill.

Here’s how the center looks today.

A new Trek bicycle store recently opened, and makes a nice complement to other retailers.
Around the corner, a fresh new look for the urgent care center and Walgreens.

Still Searching for Anchor Tenant…

Unfortunately, the center still lacks an anchor tenant.

The leasing agent, NewQuest, is rumored to have been in discussions with a large fitness center to occupy that space or part of it. This morning, I saw electricians entering the space to work. But NewQuest did not return a phone call to confirm or deny a deal with a new tenant. NewQuest’s website still shows the space officially for lease.

…But Appraised Value Quadruples Since Harvey

Regardless, you can see another sign of the shopping center’s success on the Harris County Appraisal District website. The appraised value of the center has more than quadrupled since those bleak days after Harvey.

Five-year appraised value history from HCAD.org as of 9/8/22.
Screen capture from HCAD.org as of 9/8/22.

Welcome Back, Retailers!

If you avoided this center during construction, explore what all the small business owners have to offer.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/8/2022

1836 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Effort Begins to Form Cypress Creek Drainage Improvement District

Leaders from the Cypress Creek area met on 9/6/2022 to hear a pitch about forming a Cypress Creek Drainage Improvement District. The purpose: to accelerate projects that could reduce flood damage.

A Gathering of Utility District Heads

Approximately 100 to 120 people attended the meeting. Most represented municipal utility and other special purpose districts.

Much of the area is unincorporated. And when Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey addressed the crowd, he pointed out that those districts represent the “primary form of government” in that part of Precinct 3.

Harris County Precinct 3 Commissioner Tom Ramsey addressing the Cypress Creek crowd about the formation of a drainage improvement district.

What Happened

Seven speakers throughout the one hour and 40 minute meeting reprised several dominant themes.

  • The steering committee doesn’t yet know all the details of flood-mitigation recommendations or their costs. The meeting was only a first step in soliciting input, gaging interest in, and publicizing such a district.
  • Creating the drainage improvement district would enable the 450,000 people in the 267-square-mile Cypress Creek Watershed to speak with one voice and get the help they need.
  • Developing large-scale flood-risk reduction projects can take decades.
  • “Control your own destiny.” Don’t count on help from Harris County anytime soon because of the current domination of Commissioners Court by a majority with other priorities.

Individual presentations addressed various flood-mitigation options such as tunneling, dredging, and construction of floodwater-detention basins. Cost estimates ranged from $600 million (for a first step) up to as much as $1-, $2- or $3 billion (during the next 20-30 years) depending on the amount of risk reduction people desire.

Forming Drainage District and Funding Projects Could Take Years

Speakers also addressed the steps needed to form a Cypress Creek drainage improvement district. Without going into excruciating detail, it could take years to form a district, determine a project list, estimate costs, determine the best way to fund improvements (i.e., bonds vs. tax increases), and raise money to begin construction.

The earliest such a district could even go on a ballot for voter approval would be November of 2023.

The implication: start now. The longer residents wait, the greater the risk of flooding.

Issues to Overcome

Members of the steering committee fielded questions from the audience at the end of the presentations.

During Q&A, several in the audience pointed out that that flood risk is constantly increasing because of rapid upstream development. But task force members said that was beyond their purview.

It also became obvious from the questions that some people craved more certainty in plans, costs and funding than anyone at the meeting was prepared to offer last night.

I personally attributed that to frustration over three things:

Public skepticism and frustration over such issues could make the creation of a new drainage district a difficult sell.

Potential “First Step” Benefits

But if people can see past that skepticism, they may get a chance to accelerate flood risk reduction, and attract matching funds and grants from state and federal sources.

A November 2021 Cypress Creek Program Implementation Plan developed by Jones & Carter for the Harris County Flood Control District estimates that 14,000 acre-feet of floodwater storage could remove:

  • 39% of structures from the 10-year floodplain.
  • 22% from the 50-year floodplain.
  • 18% from the 100-year floodplain.

But the estimated $600 million cost would exceed the amount currently allocated to the Cypress Creek Watershed in the 2018 flood bond. So more money would have to come from somewhere to achieve those benefits.

Said one engineer in the crowd after the meeting, “It’s amazing how much quicker things go when you have money!” Before the Flood Bond in 2018, the Flood Control District often had to save up multiple years to build one detention basin.

For More Information

To learn more about the Cypress Creek Flooding Task Force, visit their web site here.

For a list of the Task Force leaders, click here.

They describe their mission as helping to “facilitate the construction of 22 stormwater detention sites recommended in the Harris County Flood Control District’s Jones/Carter Study as the most feasible means of mitigating flooding along Cypress Creek.”

For the meeting’s PowerPoint, click here.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/7/2022

1835 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Construction Starting Soon on Lauder Basin Phase 2

The Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) will soon begin constructing its Lauder Basin Phase 2 in the Greens Bayou watershed. Scheduled for Fall 2022, Phase 2 is located east of Aldine Westfield Road in the area of the Castlewood Subdivision between Aldine Bender and Lauder Roads.

Location of Lauder Basin Phase 2 near Castlewood Subdivision
Looking S over Phase 1 of the Lauder Basin in March 2022. Greens Bayou on right. Phase 2 will go in the trees, upper right.

Size and Scope

This project help reduce existing flood levels by safely holding 651 acre-feet of stormwater during heavy rains. It will involve excavating approximately 1,152,200 cubic yards of soil, cost approximately $22.5 million, and hold 212 million gallons of stormwater. That’s more than a foot of rain falling across a square mile.

Phase II will be a dry bottom stormwater detention basin. A remnant channel, or “oxbow,” in Phase II will be recreated at the bottom of the basin.

Additional trees will be planted post-construction. While the stormwater detention basin’s primary function is to reduce flooding risks, the site may provide multi-use recreational facilities that would be developed by partner entities. Construction of Phase I of this project, located along Greens Bayou between Lauder Road and JFK Boulevard, was substantially completed earlier this Spring.

More Specifics

2018 HCFCD Bond Project C-34
Precinct: 2
Contractor: RES Gulf Coast LLC, dba LECON, Inc.
Contract Amount: approximately $22.5 Million
Construction Start: Fall 2022
Contract Duration: 581 calendar days (about 1.5 years)

Mid-Reach Program: Greens Bayou cuts across NW Houston to Greenspoint Mall, then parallels Beltway 8 south of Intercontinental Airport. At Aldine-Westfield Road it turns further south, and cuts under 59 by the go-cart track. This project is part of the Greens Mid-Reach program, which has restored a 10-year level of service to the Bayou and is aiming for a 25-year level.

Greens Midreach program
Greens Mid-Reach Program. See Lauder Basin Location in lower right.

Construction Warning

Construction equipment will access the work area via Miranda Street. The contractor will use heavy construction equipment such as dump trucks, excavators, and bulldozers to remove trees, vegetation, and excavated soil.

Motorists should heed all warning and road closure signs and detours. Be alert to truck traffic when passing near construction access points and along truck routes.

For More Information

For more information, visit the project page at www.hcfcd.org/C34.

Direct questions or comments to www.hcfcd.org/contact-us.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/5/22

1834 Days since Hurricane Harvey

202.8 Acres of Royal Pines Gone. Was It Necessary?

Since April 2022, I’ve documented the ever-widening clearing of the new Royal Pines subdivision at the north end of West Lake Houston Parkway. See what the development looked like in:

At the end of August, it appeared as though the clearing was close to complete. Massive piles of dead trees remain to haul away. But the cleared area closely matches the general plan shown below.

Looking ENE across the new, barren Royal Pines subdivision
Looking SSE from NW corner of Royal Pines
Looking WNW across Country Colony and Royal Pines, the clearing in the background.
General Plan for Royal Pines. Click here for higher resolution version.

Why Developers Clearcut: Pragmatism, Profit, Affordable Product

All across the region we see this same scenario played out over and over again. Why?

Bloomberg points out, “Money, of course. For homebuilders, trees are a nuisance. To keep a tree alive while building on a lot, they have to keep heavy equipment far away so they don’t compact the soil above its roots. They also can’t push soil up around the trunk. Preserving trees means keeping the topography of the lot unchanged, which often doesn’t fit their plans.” 

Memphis Daily News interviewed the president of the local homebuilders association there. The article says that “a developer’s stance on clear-cutting trees often depends on landscape and lot sizes. It’s easier to save trees on larger lots because they allow more room to work.”

“If a developer goes in and he decides he’s going to do two-acre lots, trees are no issue and they’re going to stay,” said Tim Wilson, president of the Memphis Area Homebuilders Association’s executive board. “But if a builder decides the best use for a piece of property is 40-foot lots, then the trees are coming down, every single one of them. That’s because there is no room for a house and a tree on a 40-foot lot.”

Majority of Lots 40-42 Feet

Exploring the links below will show you the general plan and layouts for the first three sections of Royal Pines. Most of the lots are, in fact, 40 to 42 feet wide:

The rising costs of land, borrowing, and building materials are forcing developers to squeeze more homes into smaller spaces to keep the homes affordable. In the Preserve at Woodridge, the lots are even smaller: 13 to the acre instead of 4-6.

That increases impervious cover. Unless sufficient detention and retention basins slow the water down, accelerated runoff increases the time of concentration downstream. That builds faster, higher flood peaks.

Effect of Urbanization on Peak Stream Flows” by Dr. William Dupre, professor emeritus from the University of Houston.

Impact on Environment

Sciencing.com points out that clearcutting also has other environmental impacts. They include erosion, pollution and flooding. “

“The roots of trees hold moisture and keep soil in place, protecting it from washing away during wind and rain. This erosion can also lead to flooding in waterways. Because trees are no longer holding the soil in place, rain flushes the sediment into waterways. … That can impact the river’s ability to flow properly and cause flooding.”

White Oak Creek

All along White Oak Creek, new developments are springing up. At 242 and FM1314, Mavera wetlands have bitten the dust.

Farther east, White Oak runs through the massive Valley Ranch area and the new Amazon transportation facility at 59 and 99.

Then Royal Pines borders White Oak as you get to West Lake Houston Parkway.

Finally White Oak joins Caney Creek, the East Fork San Jacinto and Lake Houston. (See below.)

White Oak Creek Watershed from the Texas Watershed Viewer.

All this clearcutting has the potential to increase runoff, erosion and sedimentation that could require future dredging…at public expense.

Eventually, the ground cover and forest canopy will regrow. But what about in the meantime? Neighbors have been lucky so far unlike those in Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/5/22

1833 Days since Hurricane Harvey

New West Fork High School Opens

New Caney ISD’s new West Fork High School on Sorters-McClellan Road south of Kingwood Drive celebrated its grand opening on August 23, 2022. Here’s a video of the event. I’ve been following the construction of the school since early 2020.

Construction is the riskiest period in a project as we saw with the aborted Woodridge Village project. Sheet flow during heavy rains flooded Elm Grove Village and North Kingwood Forest twice in 2019, largely because of the failure to follow best practices. Contractors cleared 270 acres before building required detention ponds.

No Flooding During Construction

However, New Caney ISD built a large detention pond at the low end of the site when it started construction. They also planted grass in it right away. Luckily, TA DA, no one flooded during construction. And no major erosion problems were observed. Amazing how safety improves when you follow best practices.

Pictures of Completed Campus

Here are pictures of the school taken 9/4/22, Sunday morning when no students were around. The campus looks beautiful and will make a welcome addition for New Caney ISD students in the area.

Wide shot showing whole campus including detention pond. Looking NE across Sorters-McClellan Road toward HCA Kingwood Medical Center in background.
Closer shot looking in same direction.
Looking NW from SE corner of site over the detention basin.
Track, field events, baseball and a dedicated athletic facility on the left.
Looking directly west at back of new high school.
Looking south from north end of main complex.
Central open-air courtyard, a signature feature of the new school. Gives more classrooms sunlight.
Completing the circle. Looking NE again from SW corner of main building.

Historical Photos of Construction Progress

To look back at the sequence of construction photos starting in June 2020, see the links below.

Congratulations to New Caney ISD, its students, and all the neighbors who survived construction.

There’s still a little work left to do. The road in front of the high school is widening. A pile of dirt at the north end needs to be removed. And pipe, most likely for irrigation, still remains in places. But I think we can safely close the books on this project.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/4/22

1832 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Nephew Izzy Considering Homelets

My weird nephew Izzy wants to rent one of those new 660-square-foot homelets going up in the Preserve at Woodridge. He came to me so excited the other day that he was gesturing wildly and sloshed beer all over his Mötley Crüe T-shirt.

“Uncle Bob,” he enthused, “You gotta see these places! I can maybe actually possibly afford one!”

131 homes under construction, 13 to the acre. Photo taken 9/2/22.

That’s saying a lot. Or a little. Izzy isn’t exactly the top earner down at the Crystal Pistol. The owner demoted him from bartender to sweeping up beer nuts and cigarette butts. That happened after the owner learned Izzy had applied to be the head of the Flood Control District. Something about not showing loyalty and appreciation.

“A lease is a pretty big obligation, Izzy,” I said.

“It’s better than living outa the back seat of my Oldsmobile,” Izzy shot back.

“I thought you told me it would be a collector’s item someday.”

All the Amenities

“True,” said Izzy, “but these homelets, they got flush toilets.”

“I can see the advantage there. But they’re so close together, Izzy.”

“That’s one of the big pluses, Uncle Bob.”

“Why is that?”

“No trees to water. No grass to mow. More time for the ladies.”

Some of the homelets are more than 4 feet apart. Density is about 13 homelets to the acre.

“But Izzy. People commute all the way to Kingwood because they like nature.”

“Well, I heard they give you a geranium.”

“Will it fit?”

“Them homelets, they got plenty of room. Some even gots a study.”

“Do you own a book, Izzy?”

“No, but I got me a library card.”

“Have you ever used it?”

“I see your point, Uncle Bob. “

“Izzy, what you really need is a washer and drier.”

“They got them!”

“A shower?”

“Included!”

“When do you move in?”

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/3/2022

1831 Days since Hurricane Harvey

The thoughts expressed in this post represent opinions on matters of public concern and safety. They are protected by the First Amendment of the US Constitution and the Anti-SLAPP Statute of the Great State of Texas.

Update on new Woodridge Village Detention Pond

At the end of August, I checked with Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) to see how excavation of the new Woodridge Village detention pond was coming and what the next steps are.

Before and After Photos

The two photos below show the extent of excavation at the end of July and today.

Woodridge Village Excavation
The far end of the pond reached slightly past the second cluster of storm sewers at the end of July.
By the end of August, excavation had reached the far end of the second pile of storm sewers.

Eventually, the new detention basin could reach to or past the cluster of trees in the background.

Rough layout for new Woodridge basin.
Rough layout showing the excavation limits for Sprint. Right now, they’re in the lower left of the green area.

Progress by the Numbers

From February through August, 2022, Sprint Sand and Clay has removed 55,167 Cubic Yards of dirt from the area where a new detention pond will eventually be built.

Eventually, they could double the amount of detention on the site. Sprint’s contract lets them remove up to 500,000 cubic yards and sell the dirt at market rates. In exchange, HCFCD will pay them only $1,000. The minimum amount to be removed under the contract is 5,000 cubic yards per month.

Since January, Sprint has managed to beat the minimum each month. But regular reports show the rate of excavation slowing with the housing market.

Sprint began work on January 27, 2022.

By mid-April, Sprint was averaging a little more than 14,000 cubic yards per month.

But by the end of July, the average fell to 8,000 cubic yards per month.

And in August, Sprint removed only 6,307 cubic yards.

At 6,000 cubic yards per month, Sprint exceeds the contract minimum. But it would take the company another six years to reach 500,000 cubic yards. Flood-weary Elm Grove and North Kingwood Forest residents pray it doesn’t take that long.

Slowing Rates Reflect Slowdown in Housing

The slowing rates of removal reflect a slowdown in the housing market. The Census Bureau reports that privately‐owned housing starts in July were 9.6 percent below June and 8.1 percent below July 2021. TradingEconomics.com reports that the housing sector has been cooling down amid soaring prices of materials and rising mortgage rates. The Census Bureau has not yet released August rates.

Luckily, this project and others in the Kingwood Area could potentially accelerate soon.

Status of Preliminary Engineering Review on Taylor Gully

Idcus should be done with the Taylor Gully preliminary engineering review this fall. However, the Idcus contract does not include design of the detention basin that Sprint is working on. According to Alan Black, HCFCD Director of Operations, that design will need to go under a separate contract.

Funding for Design and Construction

That’s because US Congressman Dan Crenshaw secured a $1.6 million earmark earlier this year that will pay for design. Crenshaw has also requested another $10 million earmark to complete the actual construction of the Woodridge Basin when design is finalized.

According to Black, HCFCD can’t just extend the Idcus contract. HCFCD will have to start over with a request for qualifications (RFQ) for final design of the Woodridge Village detention basin and other improvements along Taylor Gully.

“That’s because the money that we’re going to use is coming from this year’s earmark from Congressman Crenshaw,” said Black. “Because federal funds are involved, we have to issue a new RFQ. We can’t use the consultant we already have just by default. So it will take us a little bit longer. By the end of this year or the beginning of next, we need to get a consultant selected, based on qualifications, once those grants come to fruition. In this case, they will be through the EPA.”

Other Crenshaw Requests to Help Lake Houston Area

As reported last night, in the immediate future, funding for projects in the Lake Houston Area will likely have to come from the Federal, State or City governments. Crenshaw has requested $10 million for construction of the Woodridge Basin, $8 million for the Lake Houston Dam Spillway Improvement Project, and another $10 million to construct another detention basin along Cedar Bayou. Crenshaw already secured another $1.6 million for final engineering of improvements to the Kingwood Diversion Ditch.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/2/22

1830 Days since Hurricane Harvey

San Jacinto Watershed Still Virtually Ignored

Harris County Flood Control District (HCFCD) spending data on right-of-way acquisition and construction for the first half of 2022 shows that, once again, the San Jacinto watershed has been ignored. Thus, the largest watershed in the county received virtually no help in terms of flood-mitigation funding.

Brays, where Precinct One Commissioner Rodney Ellis lives, received $89.4 million for the completion of Project Brays. But the San Jacinto watershed and Kingwood, which he constantly berates for getting “all the money,” received only $200 thousand. Cedar Bayou, also in the northeastern part of the county, received only $160 thousand. Buffalo Bayou received only $230 thousand.

Thus, Ellis’s Brays received 389X more than Buffalo Bayou. 447X more than San Jacinto. And 559X more than Cedar. All in the name of equity.

Oh, and don’t forget that Adrian Garcia tried to move $190 million designated for Cedar Bayou in the 2018 Flood Bond to his newly redistricted Precinct 2. I’m convinced that that’s what poker players call a “tell.” See more below. But first…

FOIA Data in Graph and Table Formats

Here’s the right-of-way and construction data from my FOIA Request in a bar graph. Do those blips on the right below make you feel ignored?

Harris County ROW and Construction dpending data obtained via a FOIA Request for Q1 and Q2 2022

Here’s the same data in a table, again arranged from highest to lowest.

If it weren’t for money contributed by Federal, State and City sources, virtually nothing would get done in this part of the county. So far, Harris County has mostly paid for studies. But the studies do no good without construction to back them up. They’re just yellowing paper on a bookshelf somewhere.

It looks like the Democrats are hoarding money hoping for a larger majority in November so they can move around – at will – the remaining money in the bond.

Hypocrisy of “Worst First”

Since 1979, floods have ravaged the northeastern part of the county more than most.

historical flood loss map of Harris County after Hurricane Harvey
Historical flood-loss map of Harris County since 1979. From MAAPnext.

And during Harvey, we had the highest water above flood stage in the county – 20+ feet! Compare that to representative locations in watersheds getting the lion’s share of funding.

worst first
Chart showing feet above flood stage of 33 gages of misc. bayous in Harris County during Harvey.

It’s much more difficult to survive a 20′ flood than a flood that’s two or three feet.

When Will This Political Torture End?

The Democratic majority on Commissioners Court has proven that it won’t play fair. It’s up to voters to create a new majority in November and right this wrong. People’s lives are at risk.

Imagine being trapped in one of these as water rose during Harvey. Parts of other townhomes were swept away and now lie at the bottom of Lake Houston somewhere.

Just yesterday, we were treated to more political theater in Commissioners Court by members of the Northeast Action Collective whining about how they don’t get any money. Their watersheds netted approximately $78 million in the first half of this year alone! And they want to take money from Kingwood!

If you lump historical spending on top of first-half spending, the disparities become even more exaggerated. Get mad, people. Your silence only emboldens them. Demand fairness. Demand change.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 9/1/22

1829 Days since Hurricane Harvey

Why Hurricanes Often Track Like Boomerangs

Ever wonder why so many hurricanes track like boomerangs? They don’t all follow this pattern, of course, but when you look at the 1370 hurricanes between 1851 and 2006, a pattern clearly emerges.

From the US Department of Commerce book “Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic 1851 -2006.”

Interaction of Complex Systems

In my research, I found several possible explanations for the pattern above.

Harris County Meteorologist Jeff Lindner provided this explanation. “Many of the storms that form in the eastern or central tropical Atlantic tend to get pulled northward by mid-latitude troughs over the western Atlantic as they attempt to move westward. Storms that make it all the way across tend to happen only when strong ridges of high pressure are in place.” 

“Once a system is ‘captured’ by a mid-latitude trough, it will turn NW then N and then NE and E ahead of and along the trough axis. That’s why so many tracks are of this fashion over the open central and north Atlantic.”

Jeff Lindner, Harris County Meteorologist

Lindner added, “The further south a storm develops the less likely it is to be influenced by any sort of trough and a more westward track is then favored. Tracks into the Caribbean Sea from the east usually continue westward and those are what we tend to worry most about here along the Gulf Coast.”  

“It is very rare for storms to cross central America or Mexico due to the high mountains in this area. The mountains quickly destroy the low-level circulations. A few in history have survived the trek, but they are few,” said Lindner.

Shifts in Bermuda High

The mother of all high-pressure ridges in the Atlantic is sometimes called the Bermuda or Azores high. NOAA defines it as “a semi-permanent, subtropical area of high pressure that migrates east and west between Bermuda and the Azores depending on the season.”

Red arrow added to NOAA Image indicating migration of high between Bermuda and the Azores.

The Meteorology 101 blog says, “During the summer, [the Bermuda high] is located just off the east coast of the United States. The clockwise circulation around this high pressure area helps direct the path of hurricanes and helps determine where they will make landfall. … During the winter months, the Bermuda High is located farther east of the US towards the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. 

Depending on the Bermuda high’s location at any given time, it can block storms from going north. Or it can spin storms around in the boomerang pattern in the first image above. That’s because winds circulate in a clockwise fashion around high-pressure systems in the northern hemisphere.

Also note, sometimes gaps open in the high, letting storms slip north and get caught up in that clockwise circulation.

Highs Sometimes Block Storms from Curving North

HurricaneScience.org says, “Atlantic hurricanes typically propagate around the periphery of the subtropical ridge, riding along its strongest winds. If the high is positioned to the east, then hurricanes generally propagate around the high’s western edge into the open Atlantic Ocean without making landfall.”

“However, if the high is positioned to the west and extends far enough to the south, storms are blocked from curving north and forced to continue west, putting a large bulls-eye on Florida, Cuba, and the Gulf of Mexico.” This helps explain the wide spread of tracks on the left of the first image.

Influence of Trade Winds

This post from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) explains the relationship between the Sahara Desert and the formation of many hurricanes. Prevailing winds blowing from east to west (often called trade winds) come off the hot, dry Sahara Desert where they meet the cooler, wetter environment of the Atlantic Ocean west of Africa.

Prevailing global wind circulation patterns, courtesy of NASA

The prevailing winds in this latitude are so steady that in the days of sailing ships, mariners from Europe going to the Americas would first sail south to Africa. There, they would ride the reliable winds west to conduct commerce in the New World. Hence the name “trade winds.” The trade winds steer hurricanes, too.

In higher latitudes, the trade winds reverse direction. So sailors returning to Europe would sail north before returning to Europe and catch a tailwind home.

Opposing trade winds at least partially explain the boomerang pattern shown above.

If you ever get to Seville, Spain, make sure you visit the Archive of the Indies. There you will find the story of every Spanish treasure fleet that made the round trip between Europe and the Americas. I was struck by how many fleets sank in hurricanes while riding the trade winds.

Meteorology, or lack thereof, has influenced the fate of empires.

Coriolis Force

Many scientists also cite the Coriolis Force as a reason for why hurricanes try to drift north of dominant west-to-east winds. Frankly, the physics are beyond me. It has to do with the rotation of the earth at different speeds in different latitudes, and the rightward drift of objects (like hurricanes) not anchored to the earth while traveling over long distances. The Coriolis Force is also used to explain why hurricanes rotate in a counter-clockwise direction.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 8/31/2022 with input from Jeff Lindner, HCFCD

1828 Days since Hurricane Harvey